Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/24/14

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Presenting, for your bemusement, the man that’s taller than Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, in better physical shape than Bartolo Colon, less authoritarian than Nicolas Maduro, and more intellectually honest than Murray Chass: ….oh wait…it’s just Dan Szymborski

12:01
Comment From Papa Grande
Trout 6/150… how do you feel?

12:01
Comment From Papa Grande
Seems like that much money for only two extra years really isnt that awesome

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Those two extra years would be pretty damn expensive on the open market. Trout’s salary would dwarf top salaries today – either he or 2000 A-Rod is the most valuable player to ever be open to bids

12:02
Comment From Concerned Fantasy GM
Hey Dan. Thanks for giving us something to look forward to on Mondays! I’m in an 11 team AL-only keeper league, and worried going into my auction. I do not have a catcher, and it looks like Mauer, Santana, Perez, Wieters, Castro, Gomes, Avila and Zunino are all being kept. Do I break the bank on McCann? Do I target the tandem of Norris and Jaso in Oakland, and hope that together they become a solid option? Any insight you can provide is much appreciated.

12:03
Dan Szymborski: If it doesn’t cripple you, McCann’s a far better fantasy option. It’s closer in real life, bu

12:03
Comment From The Oriole Bird
How do you see the Cruz/Lough/Urrutia playing time allocation working out?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: Cruz is going to get the lion’s share of the playing time. Lough’s really just a role player type and while we have limited information on Urrutia still, he *should’ve* destroyed AA at 26 and his limited AAA performance was underwhelming for a 26-year-old corner otufielder

12:04
Comment From STiVo
Oh god, a Murray Chass Fangraphs chat would be amazing.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: It would be amazing. We’d give sarcastic questions and he’d think they were all on the level.

12:05
Comment From JBD
How has your opinion on the Orioles’ offseason been updated in the last week?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: I’m much happier than I was. I like the Jimenez signing very much and while I was not a fan of multi-year deal for Nelson Cruz, when it costs the 55 (or so) pick instead of 17 and it’s 1-year, there’s a really good argument for an overpay

12:05
Comment From GSon
Did the Indians do enough during this offseason to give their “barely there” fan base reasons to buy more tickets?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Not really, it was kind of a disappointing winter for Cleveland. Their attempts to retain Jimenez, who was really important for them, were really just going through the motions

12:06
Comment From Jake
If Trout waits until FA, what are the odds he gets a set for life contract, say, 15 years, $450 mil?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know if anyone will devote 15 years, though one can argue he may get that, over fewer years.

12:08
Comment From jocephus
bsohl dan szymborski

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I am in the average shape of my life.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Well, I guess technically, below-average, as I was much more in shape from 0-18 than 25-35.

12:08
Comment From GSon
Does the contract extension/arbitration process need to be recreated in the form found in the NBA.. set values as opposed to the insanity of extending Mike Trout for 100 times what he would earn through the arbitration process?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: No.

12:08
Comment From Northsider
Hello Dan. Can you suggest any decent websites to track Spring Training stats, news, etc?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Conflict of interest.

12:08
Comment From Homers Bailout
WILL BAILEY JUSTIFY HIS HUGE CONTRACT THIS YEAR, MR. PRESIDENT?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: MR BAILEY NO HERO MR PRESIDENT

12:09
Dan Szymborski: (thus confusing those that don’t know this Chass meme)

12:09
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him at 117 over the same time frame, so it’s a justifiable contract.

12:10
Comment From (not that) James
In a keep-forever points league, with no draft pick surrendered or other penalty, who do you keep: McCutchen or Goldschmidt (or Puig). I already have Trout as my other keeper.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Ah, the question that everybody drafting 3rd in a re-draft has to answer.

12:11
Dan Szymborski: In fantasy I’d give the edge to Goldschmidt, (Cutch in real life)

12:11
Comment From Guppy
Better 2014 season: Anthony Rendon or Jose Altuve?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: I think Rendon.

12:11
Comment From j6takish
6/150 isn’t set for life?

12:11
Comment From The Well-Oiled Gentleman
When talking about 12 team mixed leagues, does it make sense to wait on pitching and load up on offense? Seems like pitching is deeper than ever this year.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I avoid pitching in the first round if I can. Kershaw’s the only one that would make me think again, but i probably still would go after offensve early

12:12
Comment From President Barry O
Do you think players like Drew and Cruz turned down their Qualifying Offers in large part because they thought they’d get multi-year offers? (If so, oops!)

12:12
Dan Szymborski: There was some delusion involved.

12:12
Comment From Compton
Better season/ better career: Homer Bailey or Shelby Miller?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: Bailey probably safer, Miller more upside.

12:13
Comment From Jake
At $7 mil per win, on the FA market Trout would be worth $45-55 million. Teams seem uncomfortable spending that kind of money on a player even if they’re worth it, is their a market inefficiency regarding star players?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say, there’s only one comparable player in baseball history when it comes to value when hitting free agency: A-Rod.

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Trout is that rare player that could make that big bump over existing salaries, a la A-Rod

12:16
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS suggests that a fair contract for A-Rod after 2000 was 10-years, $254.9 million. But that projected value drops in half if he had been 30 in 2000 instead of 24.

12:17
Comment From greenfrog
New hitting coach Kevin Seitzer has reportedly said that Goins has some offense left in the tank. Is there a better 2B option out there that is a realistic acquisition target for the Jays?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: Not really at this point. Jays really fumbled here. I think an Izturis bounceback is actually more likely than Goins not sucking.

12:18
Comment From john
Lucas Duda to play outfield. EY to lead off and play center. Dice-K and Lannan inside track on 5th starter position. Somebody please fire Terry Collins already. For all the “smarts” in the FO, that they would let TC field the worst possible team and line-up is amazing to me

12:19
Dan Szymborski: I’m still trying to figure out how in god’s name anyone got the idea that Young was a good defensive player.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: OK, I do know exactly: OMG HE RUN FAST~!

12:19
Comment From Jays Fan
Hey Dan! I’m in an AL-only keeper league, with Gausman and Paxton on my farm. Have to submit my keeper list this week, and torn on whether I should call up either or leave them on the farm to be called up in-season. What would you advise? Thanks!

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Gausman yes, not very high on Paxton.

12:19
Comment From toot toot
how great would it be if the rockies signed ervin to step in for an injured chacin? just think of all the dingers

12:20
Comment From Discrete Qualifying Offeree
According to the ad in the right frame of this page, “Pipelines Work! The Keystone XL Pipeline will… transport oil safely; minimize environmental impact; create jobs & enhance energy security.” What say you??

12:20
Dan Szymborski: Heh, I don’t even see the ads since I’m in the CiL event studio thingie

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I stay away from commenting too much on politics. I’m a Georgist libertarian and I imagine one could extrapolate with decent accuracy how I feel on a certain issue.

12:21
Comment From STiVo
What’s the highest WAR projection ever given by ZiPS?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Trout this year.

12:21
Comment From Lenny
Which teams among the middle of the road teams who are hoping to contend do you see having bullpen problems

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Phillies (if they’r eeven middle of the road), Yankees, Angels, Brewers, maybe the O’s, Giants are far shallower than they were even a couple years ago

12:22
Comment From Guest
How are the depth chart projections calculated? Just wondering because Justin Upton’s WAR projection in the depth charts is lower than his ZiPS, Oliver, or Steamer projection.

12:22
Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in that at all.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Asking me behind the scenes stuff about FG stuff is ineffective – need to ask one of the Daves.

12:24
Dan Szymborski: I’m not in the loop there, I know far more about what goes on behind the scenes at ESPN (giving they’re the ones that employ me and pay me). But I woudln’t tell you that so no help there either!

12:24
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Does ZiPS give a big ding for “core surgery”? Verlander’s having it. Per Bleacher Report’s injury expert (forget his name), this is just “sports hernia surgery,” and it’s not a big deal.

12:24
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can’t really look at injuries like this.

12:25
Comment From Jake
Supposedly, pitcher projections gained a lot of accuracy from the inclusion of velocity in projections. Are there any similar traits for batters that could improve position player projections?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I’ve gotten to peek at some of the hit and field data floating around and at least from cursory playing around, I think people are going to be disappointed if they think that there’s a huge revolution in those numbers.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Our less robust, more commonly used measures actually capture quite a bit.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Even with pitching velocity, it’s a subtle improvement, not a huge one.

12:27
Comment From Guest
Scale of 1 to Amanda Bynes on Twitter, how bananas is the AL East going to be this year?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I’d put it as better than Chiquita but below Del Monte

12:27
Comment From Duchess
Actual trade of Maurer and Franklin for Brett Gardner? Possible, or do the Yankees need Brett Gardner too much?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s too late in the offseason for this to happen

12:28
Dan Szymborski: Because the Yankees would have to do other stuff then, which they mostly couldn’t now.

12:28
Comment From Timothy
Is there an easy way to find a player’s xBABIP?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: No

12:28
Comment From Jake
Three most likely changes in the 2016 CBA

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Increased penalties for PEDs in return for less commish discretion. Maybe some changes to the compensation system if next winter looks like this one.

12:30
Comment From froglegs_jackson
I have the 5th pick in a 1st year dynasty draft. I’m assuming the 1st 4 players off the board will be Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt, and McCutchen. Would it be crazy to take Harper 5th?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: In a Dynasty, no. Too high for a redraft.

12:30
Comment From Timothy
What happens if a team commits money in long-term contracts that it ends up not being able to pay?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: A lot of lawyers get involved and an uncertain conclusion 🙂

12:31
Comment From Jake
Feeling a lot of shame for mixing up there/their in that second trout quesiton

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Nothing that can’t be solved by opening your veins in a warm bath!

12:31
Comment From Poland
EUIV best – I made it years before the wheels came off. I had too many angry neighbors.

12:31
Comment From Ringtone Composer
Which Oklahoma HS product from the top-10 of the 2011 amateur draft has a higher ZiPS career projection: Dylan Bundy or Archie Bradley?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS prefers Bradley. Not surprising – while we can be optimistic about Bundy’s recovery, there *is* extra uncertainty in there

12:32
Comment From Early Aces
How safe is Max Scherzer?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s pretty safe.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like this was an out of nowhere fluke. The Silver Hammer did have a FIP in 2012, IIRC, that was a hair about 3.

12:33
Comment From Duchess
Do you think Hart plays more than 80 games in outfield coming off two knee surgeries?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: He shouldn’t, but shouldn’t and won’t don’t always meet in Seattle.

12:33
Comment From Kris
Yeah, the new market inefficiency is getting one of the best players ever on your team. What has Billy Beane been missing all this time!?

12:33
Comment From Jake
Does Cabrera get 6 years in 2015 FA?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Unless the Tigers sign him first, i think he does.

12:34
Comment From Jay C
How much worse is the Nats’ farm system now than it was at the beginning of the offseason?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anythign serious.

12:34
Comment From Cashman
Who do you move to LF? Trout or Ellsbury?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Probably Ellsbury. Older and while his injuries have tended to be of the fluky variety, if I already have Trout, I’d choose to go a little easier on Tacoby

12:35
Comment From FL Bucco
Just looked at Projections for the Pirates – only 105PA for Polanco – and nothing from Taillon – I have been arguing that bringing both of these guys up earlier – May – is worth 2-4 wins – am I an idiot?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: I think Polanco gets more than 105. But again, I’m not involved in this part of the process at all.

12:36
Comment From Jake
ARAMIS RAMIREZ ARAMIS RAMIREZ WHY DOESN’T EVERY TEAM WITH SALARY CAP SPACE WANT HIM SUCH AN ASSET

12:36
Comment From Jake
Need to calm down about Aramis Ramirez being under appreciated as a player and trade target, but oh well

12:37
Comment From Farting for Science
As a Nats fan, Bryce Harper’s belief that he needs to add a ton of muscle in the offseason, because during the season he sheds weight like a crazy person, is a little distressing. Should I assume he has competent diet/nutrition/exercise advisors who know things like science?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure he has trainers.

12:37
Comment From Duchess
How much better is Samardzija than Paxton over the next 3 years?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: I think significantly. Even if you don’t think Shark will break out, he’s still a league-averageish pitcher now. Paxton isn’t one now and while he certainly has a chance to be, it’s speculative.

12:38
Comment From Col. Bat Guano
Szymborski (if that is your real name), is there any team more brittle than the Yankees?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: If I made up name, I’d make up one that people could spell. And much cooler. Aristophanes Thundersnow.

12:39
Comment From Larouche-
What % of baseball sabermatricians are libertarians? Seems like a larger percentage than the general populace.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Dunno – I don’t really pay attention to the political leanings of other saber-type writers (nor should anyone really care about mine)

12:40
Dan Szymborski: But I’d guess there would be a larger percentage, but because libertarians are also probably disproportionately present in educated, middle-class white males with nerdy hobbies between 25 and 45.

12:40
Comment From Fellow Physiocrat
What’s your favorite beer to pair with a baseball game (watching at home)?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a particular go-to beer. I drink a wide, wide variety.

12:41
Comment From GSon
how does ZiPS adjust year to year for a massive failure (e.g. Indians projected to win 80.. won 92…)?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Team projections are derived from player projections.

12:41
Comment From The Oriole Bird
I was under the impression that you categorized injuries in the ZiPS code? (e.g., shoulder injury for pitcher, TJ surgery, etc.). How does that work, generally?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but it focuses on missed time and specific injuries that we have a lot of data on.

12:42
Comment From Dan
Hey Dan, do you think Joba has any kind of resurgence in Detroit this year? If there is one thing they do well there, it’s gotta be getting the most out of their pitchers.

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Maybe mild. I don’t think much of him.

12:42
Comment From jocephus
is there a skull and bones society at espn?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Whether there was or there wasn’t, my answer would be no in either case, so an answer isn’t helpful.

12:43
Comment From Jake
Do Depth Charts and ZiPS assume players are platooned to some degree? For guys with big splits, shifting 100-200 AB to the right handedness could be 10-20 points of wOBA

12:44
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS assumes previous platoon usage (and toward the end of offseason, I run the splits so people can reconfigure if they wish)

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Again, I have no part in the Depth Charts.

12:44
Comment From Jon
Outside of Grey’s Sports Almanac, is there a piece of data that you would like access to that you feel really would improve ZiPS in one way another?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Do you mean real? I’m good at getting my hands on existing data that I find useful.

12:44
Dan Szymborski: I’d *love* to get hit location data throughout history!

12:45
Comment From Jon
Would ZiPS like Stephen Drew’s bat in Pittsburgh? How about Mike Carp?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Drew’s a great fit for Pittsburgh and Carp would be OK, but not exactly exciting

12:45
Comment From Bobo
Hi Dan. ZiPS projections for Brad Miller aren’t as bullish as Steamer or Oliver. Do you feel there’s a significant upside to Miller in 2014/Career?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Yes.

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Considering ZiPS has Miller’s WAR at #37 among position players and #5 among SS, I’m not sure it’s really being bearish

12:47
Comment From Gila Monster
Are you concerned about J-Upton’s utter lack of Contact last season. He was next to Moss,Trumbo, and Soriano…ugh

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Upton’s never exactly been Joe Sewell up there.

12:48
Dan Szymborski: It *seemed* to me taht he got more aggressive after his hot start and it failed hima bit, but I haven’t looked at the month-by-month discipline data to see if there’s anything to that

12:48
Comment From GSon
CBA Changes: 1.)QO System / Arbitration III / compensation elimination, 2. Salary / Service time value changes 3.) New Commissioner Reach

12:48
Comment From Russia
Please send me ur ZiPS special sauce. Yes?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: It’s mayonnaise left out in the sun

12:49
Comment From Midwesterner
More historically acurate, Braveheart or Return of the Jedi?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: See, that’s what someone asks me when they already knwo my answer

12:49
Dan Szymborski: HOW CAN YOU DO THE BATTLE OF STIRLING BRIDGE WITHOUT A FRIGGING BRIDGE?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: NOBODY WOULD HAVE BEEN SURPRISED THAT WILLIAM WALLACE SPOKE FRENCH IT WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE SURPRISING IF HE HADNT BECAUSE THAT WAS THE PRIMARY LANGUAGE OF MOST OF THE SCOTO-NORMAN NOBILITY AT THE TIME THAT HE WOULD HAVE INTERACTED WITH REGULARLY

12:51
Dan Szymborski: God I hate that movie

12:51
Comment From STiVo
What do you think is the likelihood that the RSN TV money craziness represents a bubble? It could pop, say, if certain viewership metrics aren’t met, because the networks have the ability to cancel the contracts.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a crazy bubble because they’re not really banking on having crazy ratings.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: The thing about sports is that people watch it live.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: That’s huge for advertisers.

12:52
Comment From Ryan
Can you explain ball park factors? For example, does the fact that the Cards have a solid pitching staff and lack of raw power make Busch stadium more of a pitchers park than it actually is/.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: No.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: It’s home for the team *and* opponents versus road for team *and* opponents

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Machado, Trout, Bonds

12:53
Dan Szymborski: I doubt they really care.

12:53
Comment From Dan
Speaking of BSOHL, did Jose Fernandez take it too far? 600 miles a week cycling? That’s some pretty serious mileage, and muscle atrophy seems almost guaranteed (there is a reason professional cyclists all look like they are starving). Doesn’t seem like all that great of an idea coming off the year he just had.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Wow, did he really do *600*?

12:54
Comment From Gila Monster
In regards to the NFLs new language policy and MLB’s new collision policy, do the leagues actually care, or just trying to cover their ass from lawsuits?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: uh, that was the question i answered above

12:54
Comment From B
Do/should teams consider locking up players at certain positions faster? For instance, if you have a 5 WAR C and a 5 WAR RF, and you only have the money to lock up one, I think you should lock up the RF. The reason: if you develop more talent in RF over the life of the contract, you simply move one player to LF. If you develop more talent at C, shifting one player to another position likely hurts their value more. Trades are possible too, but I would think that you’d likely be looking at a discount when your trading partner knows that your asset is of limited value to you.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: It always depends on who the player is and what the exact figures. You can’t simply reduce it to hard-and-fast rules like this

12:54
Comment From Eminor3rd
Who is your favorite Orioles player? Who is your favorite Non-Orioles player? Who is your favorite inactive player?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: And that was *another* question that didn’t post

12:55
Comment From Jake
Tell Kris he’s mean. 🙁 And that, as long as owners can’t absorb the reality of a true talent 8-10 win player and pay him thusly, that’s an inefficiency to be exploited

12:55
Comment From Rags
Do you think there may be way fewer QOs next year, with the idea that this year put the fear of God in players and teams are going to assume they start accepting them?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think QOs will decline unless enough guys are accepting them to make it a worse risk

12:56
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like this is year 1 – a bunch of guys apparently didn’t learn anything from Lohse.

12:56
Comment From Guest
Could you provide thoughts on BP’s PECOTA system? What are it’s “biases” compared with ZIPs and Steamer?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Well, since I don’t have access to PECOTA (or Steamer), I can hardly answer that.

12:56
Comment From saskatunes
Dan, just curious how much backtesting you do with ZiPS. Obviously there is a lot of noise on a player-to-player basis, but does it overall stand up historically to a pretty reliable degree?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: I do quite a lot of testing, mostly for various biases (especially in subgroups, etc)

12:56
Comment From Mrs. Jason Collette
i find it frustrating when people use the “leadoff” argument as the only way to get runs. its always power hitters, good obp guys, no?

12:57
Comment From albertkly
For Jay Bruce, Steamer projects a very strange drop in games (130 projected??), plate appearances, runs and RBI. The home run projection basically remains the same from 2013 though. I see similar weirdness for Freddie Freeman. Any idea what’s happening here?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: None

12:57
Comment From Eminor3rd
Which team will SHOCK THE WORLD with its 2014 performance, either good or bad?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: The Yankees. There is a shocking percentage of the world that thinks the Yankees are back and Badder Than Ever.

12:57
Comment From Jon
Starling Marte got 182 PAs with the Pirates in 2012, Gerrit Cole pitched 117 regular-season innings last year. I don’t see why Polanco can’t get that many PAs, and I’d probably take the under on Taillon pitching as many innings as Cole did, but both should see decent playing time in 2014.

12:57
Comment From Sid
In the most general way, is a a starting pitching or hitter prospect more likely to be a bust?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Pitcher

12:57
Dan Szymborski: The second most likely to be a bust is a pitcher.

12:58
Dan Szymborski: probably 3rd and 4th most likely

12:58
Comment From Jake
Does Obama’s 2015 WAR take a hit on stricter aging curves?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Legislation above replacement seems to age pretty steadily

12:58
Comment From Eminor3rd
Why do people think they have right to NOT be offended?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Because people are stupid.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Except of course, for the handsome astronauts with excellent taste that read me.

12:59
Comment From Final Thought Before Lunchtime Gorging
Liberty is cool. But Ayn Rand and Frierich Hayek really needed to chill out a little bit. We’re not alway going to serfdom–sometimes just regressing to the mean, right?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Ayn Rand did not like libertarians and she was kind of a shitty writer, too.

12:59
Comment From Harjit
What do you think of the Giants this coming season? I doubt they can win the division, but are they a team that could take a wild card slot or is that a huge leap?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I think they *can* win the division, but thery’re more likely in the wild card mix

1:00
Comment From KJ
noticed that Matt Adams got ZiPS-ed for ~half a year of PAs. Is that projecting injury or demotion?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: It’s just that he hasn’t gotten much PT in the past. Don’t get too hung up on playing time that a projection system predicts.

1:00
Comment From Gila Monster
If you are the Red Sox, do you extend Ortiz through 2015? He has been good, but the track record of old DH types crapping out instantly at age 40 is quite poor(Winfield,Moliter,Edgar, and Thomas). Just slap a QO on him at the end of 2014?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Woudln’t be popular, but slapping a QO on him is about what I’d do. This is business.

1:01
Comment From amazin
Mets bloggers have discussed the availability of Seattle infielder Nick Franklin. Oliver projects five-year WAR of 19.2 for Brad Miller, 17.5 for Nick Franklin, 16.3 for Matt Harvey, 14.2 for Juan Lagares, 9.6 for Rafael Montero, 9.4 for Jon Niese, 7.8 for Wilmer Flores, 5.9 for Zack Wheeler, 5.6 for Noah Syndergaard, 3.9 for Dillon Gee, 3.8 for Jacob DeGrom and 0.4 for Vic Black. Do you see any trade possibilities?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Again, you have to be careful using Oliver like that, as it assumes full seasons.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: I think if Marienrs trade Franklin, it’ll be more for win now pieces.

1:01
Comment From Conrad
Who is your current “Set Him Free” candidate? Lagares for NYM?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: I’m goign to wait and see how comically ham-handed the Mets lineup actually turns out to be

1:02
Comment From Cant help myself
WHO’S JOE SEWELL, MR PRESIDENT?

1:02
Comment From Sadwick
Sun dried mayonnaise, it improves everything….. by comparison.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Asking me the same question 20 times in a row does not make it more likely that I’ll answer your question.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: It makes me less likely – I consider it cheating.

1:03
Comment From Sadwick
Mel Gibson is basically historical death for any movie he’s in.

1:04
Dan Szymborski: The Road Warrior was closer to an accurate portrayal of the Great Depression than Braveheart was to the Scots-English wars of the time.

1:04
Comment From Chris
wait, you think N. Cruz is actually going to use his glove this season?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Don’t forget, this team hasn’t cut Delmon Young yet. Or Reimold.

1:05
Comment From disco derk
worst gm in baseball? Towers?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Amaro

1:06
Comment From Duchess
Thor + Lagares for Franklin. Done!

1:07
Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to log off for the week. Hope to se eyou guys next time!

1:08
Dan Szymborski: And the guy who’s flooding with the same 3 questions – I didn’t answer your questions by design. I can only answer a small percentage of question and it’s not fair to the others if you try to brute force your way to getting your questions answered instead of that of others.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Even though a few of them were itneresting questions, I couldn’t answer the as a result.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Kramer
10 years ago

When looking at the extensions the Braves signed recently I couldn’t help but think how Billy Beane in the past has traded his SP’s after buying out their arbitration years at a reduced rate. In the case of Cahill, it worked out great, Brett Anderson the jury is still out. I’m thinking part of the hit a team is taking is on the trade value a player has after locking him up at market value as opposed to below market value which used to be the norm. This takes away the increase in value a player has due to the affordable below market value during the arbitration years. The club takes a risk of course on these deals as well, but they seem like more of a win for the player.