Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/11/19

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The appointed time for chatting has now arrived.

12:04
Mystery Chatter: What up playa. Need a late-round MI. How does Adames strike you?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Needs to be a fairly deep lead

12:04
Mark: Can you name some quality pitching under control for 3ish years that might be trade candidates?  Is Michael Fulmer the most valuable trade candidate in that type of grouping?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There really aren’t a ton of guys like that, honestly

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gausman was one but was traded last year

12:05
BryanH: Are 3 year ZiPS published?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They ought to be, I haven’t asked for an update. They gotta figure it out

12:05
LFC Mike: Arizona seems like a good move for Adam Jones…he’s not playing in Baltimore anyway….stat assumptions for 2019?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the the projections are wrong. maybe a half-win in part-time play

12:05
Mystery Chatter: Name a team that could conceivably finish first or last in its division.

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most of the NL Central

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: O’s and Marlins keep the NL East from that risk

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe A’s?

12:06
Vlad’s Lat: I guess I wasn’t in the best shape of my life…..more AAA food for me.

12:06
Hello: What’s the general sentiment in O’s fandom re Adam Jones’s departure?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A weird belief that Arizona got some killer deal because Jones is a good player

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit of hometown bias, of course.

12:06
Gub Gub: You can’t win if you don’t Dan Chat

12:06
Dom Smith: Set me free.

12:06
Matt: I’m gonna grab lunch quick. Pause for 10 or so. K thx.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You knew when I was coming.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: IT’S THE SAME TIME EVERY WEEK

12:07
Adam: Is ZiPS aware of more granular splits like batting order position, ball park and 1st half vs 2nd half? For example, would it know that Matt Carpenter generally only hits well out of the lead off spot? Thanks in advance.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not particularly as these things don’t hold much in way of predictive value

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Especially lineup spot

12:07
Gub Gub: What’s the most you’ve ever gambled at one time?  Was it on baseball?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I never make a bet more than a few hundred dollars.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do well in betting because I look for specific opportunities rather than start with wanting to bet and deciding then.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Vegas is very good at what they do – if I had to bet *everything* I’d do a ton worse for sure

12:08
tb.25: Just got a new job and have to commute 2 hours via train 3 times a week… recommended chili to keep me awake?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Texas Red Bull chili

12:08
Anonymous: Is existential ennui a sandwich?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can’t serve abstract principles between bread.

12:09
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Started a franchise in MLB: the Show 18 and did a fantasy draft beforehand. Took a lot of guys on 1-year contracts with the idea of flipping them at the deadline. Which return package do you like best for Andrew Miller?Potential grade, years of control in quotes.

Option 1:
Jesus Luzardo (A, 6)
Domingo Santana (B, 4)

Option 2:
Sixto Sanchez (A, 6)
Franchy Cordero (B, 6)

Option 3:
A.J. Puk (A, 6)
Tommy Pham (B, 4)

Option 4 (Miller + Guillermo Heredia):
Corey Knebel (B, 3)
Jo Adell (A, 6)
Anderson Espinoza (B, 6)

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 1 I think

12:09
LFC Mike: Does Tatis Jr. go to AAA for a few weeks to screw around with service time and come up or is do you think more a mid season promotion?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more a midseason type ting

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He doesn’t have a single at-bat in Triple-A, so it’s justified to let promote him there I think

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: especially because I don’t think *at this moment* that an Urias-Tatis middle infield is better, in 2019 terms, than a Kinsler-Urias one

12:10
Anonymous: I dare you to make a compelling argument in favor of Daylight Savings time

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It really messes with my mom. I love hanging out with her afterwards because she appears to be solar powered and it changes her energy level wierdly

12:12
The Decadent Moose: Since no one is signing Keuchel, is this one of the shortest careers of a Cy Young winner?
192 games

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s going to sign of course!

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’d have more starts than LaMarr Hoyt

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe VUckovich?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now I’m sitting here thinking of short career Cys

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you go by INNINGs, he’s gotta be ahead of some Cy relievers

12:16
Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: Do you eat beans in other dishes?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes, in bean-appropriate settings

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like a burrito.

12:16
Gub Gub: The longer I go without trying a Chelada, the more I want to try it.  But I don’t.  Talk me into it.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can’t you just touch the back of your throat and save the middle man?

12:16
brad: Can/should the Yankees trade detances for a prospect and sign kimbrel?  That would be a bullpen….

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nah

12:16
Dbo: Is it still true that you’ll ban anyone who admits to putting ketchup on their chili? It should be called chili a la sloppy joe

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Did I say that? Sounds like me

12:17
Gub Gub: What is a worse feeling as an adult playing sports casually, a strikeout or an air ball?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Air ball for sure

12:17
APJ: When does Keston Hiura first make it to the majors?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: August

12:17
Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: Is there anything funnier than Royals fans threatening to give up on the team for signing Martin Maldonado for 1 year/$2.5 million?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Are they?

12:17
The Talk Who Guy Things: Have you accepted that your cats think about murdering humans from time to time?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s part of the deal.

12:17
druidiful: Dan, tell us how you really feel about the inclusion of beans into chili.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of delicious meat-and-bean stew. It’s just not chili

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: -sorry, lost internet for a few mins

12:21
svan: is there an equilibrium FA/contract structure outcome where everyone takes shorter, higher-AAV deals [the Bauer Plan ™] instead of Harper-style megadeals?  Teams seem readily willing to pay premium rates if they’re confident that they’ll be good during those years — e.g. the Dodgers’ reported 4-5 year Harper offers, the Brewers spending on Cain and Grandal, etc.  The players involved wouldn’t necessarily be toast at the end of that shorter deal, but/and they’d likely be worth more to the next wave of contenders at that point than the then-rebuilding Brewers.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There probably is, but 4 years was an awkward amount of time for Harper

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re essentially taking him out of 10-year contracts for good in all likelihood

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re not doing that with a one-year deal

12:21
Turtle Jetpack: Who has the greater career as a bat first quad A player: Jack Cust, Dan Vogelbach, or Billy Butler?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d hardly call Cust and Butler AAA players, they both had OPS+ above 115 I believe

12:22
Kenesaw Mountain Pass: When will balls and strikes be called by a computer in a major league game? How soon before it’s hacked?

12:22
Andrew: Which team prospect hoarding team (e.g. Atlanta, SD, etc.) is most likely to deal from its stash to make a major acquisition this year?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Braves I think

12:22
The Talk Who Guy Things: Why do I constantly assign credit to George Benson’s ‘Turn Your Love Around’ to Michael McDonald?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why you do the things you do!

12:22
Hello: Any strategic tips for a first time sim league player?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not sure there’s anything general for this situation that wouldn’t be good advice to others!

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though i’d try to read the rules well to see where real-life value may differ from sim value

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: that’s probably more of an issue in fantasy though

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Where things like playing center or having great D at a position aren’t really valuable

12:23
the donut whole: dan you should host a late night cable access show about…i don’t know

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Worst. Show. Ever.

12:24
Big Daddy Wes: Who has a better season, Nola or Snell? Is the tipping point just that 1 plays in the AL East?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Snell by a little bit. And I’ve been a longtime Nola hyper.

12:24
Turtle Jetpack: The Mariner rebuild + Felix got to play together against minor leaguers in Cleveland’s system and got beat 16-2.  Is there anything quite so dissonant as the hopefulness of prospects coming into conflict with the reality?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Poor King

12:24
LFC Mike: After running Zips and assessing/reviewing them..are there any players you have a “gut” feeling on that will surpass or come way short of the Zips projections?..or do you leave gut feelings for general hungriness or anxiety?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I’m doing a piece on that so not saying!

12:24
Ginny: Do you have any take on how serious Luis Severino’s injury is?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe it’s serious and the Yankees haven’t given any hint that it’s anything but them being careful

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But shoulders, well, I don’t feel good about ANY shoulder soreness.

12:25
Gub Gub: I have a bag of ice wrapped around my foot with an athletic bandage, Dan.  I am a captive audience.  You may tell me anything you need to get off your chest.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I went to a candy store a few weeks ago and after that visit, had about a week in which I ate an unhealthy number of Sweet Tarts.

12:26
Kenesaw Mountain Pass: The humidor had quite an effect in Arizona. Will it become standard anytime soon?

12:26
tb.25: How did you manage to start the chat at noon and tweet about your article at 12:04?!

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MULTITASK

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was having a punctuation argument with Meg and forgot to tweet!

12:27
Cove Dweller: But have you ever had a sandwich that filled you with existential dread?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That sandwich of ennui above

12:27
Davis: Will Guerrero start Opening Day in Buffalo? What is his new timeline for getting called up, if ther even is one?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He will suddenly be ready for the majors in either 20 days or 3 months

12:29
Scott: Hey Dan – 1500 Innings cap on pitchers in a 5×5 league. Thoughts on a “reliever-heavy” rotation? A good group of 70-100 innings guys with strong ratios?

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of the relief-emphasizing strategy. If you want to de-emphasize starting pitcher, a more generalized LIMA

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Especially in 5×5 because while you can punt a category in 5×5 in the right situation, 5×5 for pitching introduces a *counting* stat.

12:31
Ginny: There doesn’t seem to be many people excited about Francisco Mejia this year, even though he hit very well throughout the minors. What has fantasy people seemingly giving up on him?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would wager that it has more to do with the split situation in San Diego.

12:31
Random Angry Internet Guy: Dan.. Am I going to have to educate you on how to run a baseball chat based on 100% baseball chatting and none of this tomfoolery and general silliness that seems to happen only when you are in charge?..I really want to educate you on that…..and 1001 other things that make me that Random Angry Internet Guy.

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Just call me Sandy “Some Nonsense” Whistleton.

12:33
Gub Gub: I love Daylight Saving Time.   I love it.  I love being able to send my kids outside for another hour during the time I get home

12:33
Kenesaw Mountain Pass: How many games is the lack of a closer going to cost the Red Sox?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s going to be some, I’m concerned about that bullpen

12:34
Kenesaw Mountain Pass: If you could be a tree, what kind of tree would you like to be turned into baceball bats?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ebony?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer to not be broken

12:34
Lennifer: I assume the games in Tokyo count toward players’ service time, but does the period between the Tokyo games and their next regular season game count toward service time?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe

12:35
Turtle Jetpack: Mike Leake has a no trade clause and isn’t really exciting as a 3, but he might be an honest 4 (2-3 WAR pitcher) who is available.  Is that a desirable commodity?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he meant service time

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Or may be I’m wrong

12:35
Pat G: Any fear Patrick Corbin regresses once the league has a chance to adjust to the new pitch mix?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really

12:35
Nick: Who is called up first? Who sticks in the rotation?: Luzardo, Paddack, Cease.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Paddack first

12:35
Kimbrel s Real Estate Agenr: When do I shop or do I even shop for homes in Dc area ?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You should probably have a contract first

12:36
Turtle Jetpack: Didn’t JR Richard have a short career too?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He had like 5 or 6 full years before the blood clot in a four-man rotation, no? I woul dimagine he has more

12:36
the donut whole: are socks like burritos?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t even

12:36
Big Joe Mufferaw: Which current player has your personal favorite highlight reel? What about all time?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My favorite all-time baseball GIF was Jose Fernandez catching that liner

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For different reasons, I love Brendan Ryan and Delmon Young defense GIFs

12:38
Andrew: Keuchel’s slow free agency is so weird to me. Starting pitchers have done OK in this market, and he’s going to give you 200 innings, probably of mid-rotation quality, and he doesn’t have unreasonable demands like Kimbrel. Is there something I’m missing as to why he hasn’t found a home yet?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DOES he not have unreasonable demands? Hard to verify it

12:38
Laloosh: Does Alonso start the year with the Mets?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, no

12:38
tom: why didn’t you go to the fangraphs meet up?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I hurt a disc in my back that was already bulging so I’m taking it extremely easy

12:39
Matt: Eventually Dan, you will push back the start of the chat rather than make this fascistic attempt to push forward or backward the start of my lunch.

12:39
Turtle Jetpack: Does Keuchel get more than 4/60?  Does Keuchel take reduced AAV to get more years and a larger guarantee?  Houston apparently has offered 2 yrs.

12:39
Steve O: 28 man rosters in september kind of stink, right? Just from a player mindset standpoint. If you’re on the 40 man roster after a good season, you come up and make more money and experience the big leagues. That’s going away for a lot of future big leaguers.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d have to add up the rosters in September

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ve finalized the wording, have they?

12:42
Not Dan: Does ZiPS take into account things like the humidor being added in Arizona?  Was there enough of a discernible difference?  If Adam Jones lucks into more PT in Arizona, would it have a negative effect on his HR power?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still use weighted multiple season, because even if there’s a known effect, the signal is lost in the noise in one-year factors

12:42
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Sometimes I feel lazy and don’t feel like sending chat questions is. By doing this, am I being selfishly lazy? Or am I benevolently allowing for others to have their questions answered?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Your desire to ask a question should overcome indolence.

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If not, you probably shouldn’t ask the question!

12:43
Turtle Jetpack: Butler put up 6WAR, had a 115 wRC+ in 1400 games; Cust had 7 WAR, 123 wRC+, 600g; Vogelbach’s done nothing yet.  But I’m just saying the bar isn’t very high to win this contest.

12:43
LFC Mike: Chile actually has beans….tortola beans, coscorron beans and bayo beans are its major bean crops….

12:43
My name is Judge…: re:  dan late night show.  i disagree with your assessment.  i would watch every night for you to make dry snarky comments and of course for galileo’s cat corner (don’t know what it is but im sure it will be great)

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t do monologues or anything very well

12:43
Matt: I feel like you might be a good addition to Norm MacDonald Has A Show

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: See, I’m way better in smaller doses.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Give me a show for some reason and I guarantee I will have exhausted people by Wednesday

12:44
Kenesaw Mountain Pass: The Nationals have banned backpacks. Other bags are searched. When will baseball attendance be affected?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: People are trained for this

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: by airports and stuff

12:44
Ed: think the Brewers are hovering around Kuechel or Kimbrel? They seem to be one of the most aggressive teams in this environment.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d love for them to add Keuchel.

12:44
Doug: I have no idea about the Orioles OF situation, but why not just being Jones back for the fans at a couple million a year?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because they’ll inevitably play him

12:45
Peter: As a New Yorker who only somewhat recently started reading FG, what is the issue with Skyline Chili?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: IT TASTES LIKE PUMPKIN PIE FILLING BECAUSE CINCINNATI

12:45
Turtle Jetpack: Pete Incaviglia had 10WAR and a 104 wRC+ over 1200 games; Trumbo 7.8 WAR, 107 wRC+, 1100 games.  See the picture I’m painting here?

12:45
5 Run Homer: What’s your opinion on chili’s thickness vs. runniness?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: should be thick

12:46
Morkinzie Gorp: Between that movie about the guy who cut off his own toe to escape the Nazis, and the book about the commando raid to blow up the heavy water plant in Vemork, I’ve come to the conclusion that WWII Norwegians were some badass mofos.

12:46
Kenesaw Mountain Pass: I went to the gym but there was no parking by the door, so I went home. When will the Commissioner realize the same thing is happening in those downtown ballparks?

12:46
5 Run Homer: Is there a healthy amount of Sweet Tarts?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Zero. I had more than zero,.

12:46
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: WTF is a bean burrito?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ?

12:46
5 Run Homer: As a Toronto fan, is it defensible to refuse to watch any of their games until Vlad is up?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you have to organize it as WHY you’re not woatching

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Or it’s hard to make your point

12:46
Gub Gub: I feel like Vlad’s oblique strain diagnosis comes from the same doctor who told Tom Hanks he had a brain cloud

12:47
Turtle Jetpack: Man, it is hard to beat a muffaletta for joy of the name of the sandwich and the quality of the sandwich.  Name + flavor, top of the charts.

12:47
Matt: Who could have ever foreseen that tying a player’s pay to a single inflection point in time quite close to the start of the season would lead to manipulation? Who could have ever foreseen such an unforeseeable thing?

12:47
Matt: If random angry internet guy is looking for baseball chat at Fangraphs, I doubt the true random nature of him. I’d like to see the work.

12:47
Study: Currently getting a doctorate (in education). Not that they’ll let me do this, but if you could propose a study MLB should fund and support, what would it be about?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can they print ligaments yet?

12:47
Mamba: What are your thoughts on moving the mound back?  Good way to increase the ball in play?  Or stupid dumb idiot rule?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer less dramatic changes

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On-field changes are the *last* thing I’d recommend

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’ve got guys who have spent their entire baseball lives from teenage years throwing from 60-6

12:49
Matt: Interesting Q regarding Japan games. Season is like 185 days, but 162 games. Curious how the league is accounting for that specific gap.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there’s language in the CBA about the “championship season” that defines the maximum days (I think 182

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I don’t have it memroiezed

12:49
Hello: Reading/enjoying Ben’s scouting series on the Ringer?  Any thoughts?

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s been a lot of fun! I’d love to get my hands on a trove like that

12:50
druidiful: Carson’s Cookbook: “Ennui Sandwiches, How Existential Dread is Good for the Soul”

12:50
Dan’s Cats: Are we going to have to educate you as to when to feed us? Remember this…we watch you sleep….every night.

12:50
Matt: I think Kimbrel has made enough money in his career such that he could viably have a vacation home in DC, and not play in DC, Dan.

12:50
Gifts: this chat requires more GIFs

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:53
Andrew: My all-time favorite gif, even beyond just baseball, is Randy Johnson exploding a bird

12:53
Matt: Regarding 28-man roster limits…isn’t this yet another instance that the MLBPA is giving away rights of soon-to-be union members that will likely need to be addressed in the future?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s in their wheelhouse!

12:53
Meltor: Biggest MLB impact this year- Tucker, Bichette, or Rodgers?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tucker, a man and his dream

12:53
Dbo: Dan, if I slice up a hot dog in two quarter shaped pieces and disconnect the hot dog bun so it is two separate pieces of bread and then put the hot dog pieces between the two pieces of bread, is that a sandwich?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:53
BenM: You’ve been contracted by a sports book to set the over/under for Keuchel’s guarantee. What do you go with?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 75

12:53
Gub Gub: Did you ever know anyone who had an innocent nickname as a kid, that became really embarrassing when you all grew up?  I knew a guy known as Twinkie.  I felt worse for him every year

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We have a friend named Bob that we called Bobbles as a kid

12:54
Gub Gub: You could have a show where you talk scientific analysis of baseball for 45 minutes, then do some of kind of zany stunt, like Super Dave for the sabermetrics crowd.  SABR Dave

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like math stunts?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Or do I have to be injured?

12:54
Matt: If ever in your life, you experienced eating chili at a Chili’s in Chile on a chilly fall day, would that just be sensory overload?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would hope I don’t travel 3,000 miles to eat at Chili’s

12:54
Matt: Dan. The mound is 3.13 ft off of mathematical center of the field. This upsets Euclid and his predecessor Pythagoras, and thus, this upsets me. It is the sole reason I support moving the mound back.

12:54
Matt: Have you ever thought about flying a bunch of us in to do a live chat in your house?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Who do I look like, Fatty Arbuckle?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh wait

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: he made more money than I do

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I look like him

12:55
the donut whole: have you ever? –

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not

12:55
Morbo: Dan’s cats every night

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:56
Ant Man: The whole Bryce-saying-bring-a-title-to-DC-thing makes me realize just how mundane these interviews must be for players. Is there any way to get players off of auto-pilot?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: because if they get off the safe, generic, casper milquetoast answers, then someone will blast them for some reason or another

12:56
Gopherballs: The CBA defines a full season for service time purposes as 172 days, even though the season is usually something like 183 days between opening day and last day of the regular (aka championship) season.  It is unclear whether the days between the Japan games and opening day for the rest of baseball count.

12:56
Fangraphs reader: Will y’all still be having chats next week during spring break?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, do we get spring break?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I WAS NOT TOLD THIS

12:57
The Talk Who Guy Things Says:

12:57
Help: Dan, who have you signed on to do your stunts in chat for 2019?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do my own chat stunts

12:57
Matt: For real though. 60 ft 6 inches? Who thought of that? Did they initially intend to put the mound in the center and just eyeball it?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was 60 feet then, but we moved over to Gregorian feet from Julian feet in the 1930s.

12:58
HappyFunBall: Thin chili is just alternatively flavored taco meat.

12:58
neilage: Can Gub Gub be banned until he asks an actual baseball question?

12:58
Anonymous: Will we struggle to remember ‘Bryce Harper the Nationals OF’ at the end of his current contract? He’ll have been the Phillies DH for at least 10 years at that point.

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nah, we still remember A-Rod, Mariner

12:59
Anonymous: What’s a ‘balk’?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Calvinball for umpires.

12:59
Matt: So, let me get this straight – you *don’t* support service time manipulation, but you *do* support hot dog manipulation? You are a soulless man, Dan.

12:59
Big Joe Mufferaw: Is Willians Astudio the next Bartolo Colon esque sensation?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He may already be!

12:59
Addison Russell sucks: Dan do you think Harper is HOFer if he reaches like 65-70 WAR career?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably because corner outfielders seem to get in with lower standards. When they get to a lot of WAR, they usually have good countint stats

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: except the ones like abreu

12:59
Gub Gub: The quintessential FanGraphs Road Trip would be for all of you to get in a ________, drive to ___________, and drink _______ at ________ until passing out.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: mystery-solving van, Greenland, expensive whiskey we trick Dave into paying for, Nuuk

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I assume a ferry will be involved at some point unless it’s a mystery-solving hovercraft)

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually, let’s make it a mystery-solving hovercraft

1:01
neilage: Worst
Baseball
Chat
Ever!

1:01
Matt: I rule Gub Gub’s mad lib to be a baseball question, as it references Fangraphs.

1:01
Chili: If I had some chili right now, it would be flavored with __________.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: chili peppers?

1:01
Gub Gub: How many Blown Saves can the Red Sox absorb until the local media wants someone’s head

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think double digit blown saves start to set people off

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: because they think those are actually 10 wins lost

1:01
Charlie Kelly: What can be done regarding big time free agents signing this close to, or even after, the start of spring training? Any possibility that the it could be a point of discussion with the CBA?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t see what can be made

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless you force a quiet period over spring training

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to force someone into agreeing with a gree agent

1:02
Lou: The Giants look like garbage, they have to trade Bum right?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I think without a major improvement, they already needed to

1:03
Matt: Do you really trust Flea, Chad Smith, that other guy and/or Anthony Kiedis to flavor your chili?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hillel Slovak is the one in charge of spices

1:03
Specific Angry Internet Guy: I LOVE this chat…and Dan’s cats rock.

1:03
Gub Gub: Does Joey Wendle have staying power, or is he another Sam Fuld?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s 2018 good, but he’ should be an average player for awhile. He’s better than Fuld

1:03
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Any significant trades between now and opening day?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think we may get a Castellanos trade

1:04
Morbo: neilage, actual baseball questions are banned in this chat

1:04
Pepper Potts: Do you see Crawford being the M’s shortstop of the future or will be become a bust?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SOme of the shine is off, but I still think you can’t completely write off his chances

1:04
Thor: Have the Phillies made enough improvement to their defense overall? Moving Hoskins to first will certainly help but besides that…

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s a pretty big change! God help him he tried really hard, but he was like a narcoleptic todd hundley out there

1:04
the donut whole: dan, did you ever play dragon age origins?  if so, thoughts?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did. I liked it, didn’t love it.

1:07
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: If the Angels were to draft Spencer Jones, what would the signing bonus need to be to get him away from Vandy?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hard to say, he seemed committed to going.

1:07
LFC Mike: Upon your 1 year Anniversary at FG…you must change your twitter picture so you look like you now know what you are talking about.

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to lie to people

1:07
PD: Max Muncy – odds he outproduces his ZIPs projections?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a good projection in this case

1:08
Guest: Oscar Mercado..can he be the next Juan Soto?..tremendous spring for the Indians..

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Are they really comparable? He’s years older than Soto and has played in the high minors

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A player like Soto, without high minors experience is more of an unknown

1:08
Morbo: Dan, asking for a friend, how does one go about starting a career in hosting off topic internet chats?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t think this is the part of my job I’m actually paid for

1:08
Sharp: no way snell extends now

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not like Rays were going to sign him past his sixth year of servcie time anyway!

1:09
Peter Quill: The NL East looks tight. Who will make the difference down the line?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On things they control, a July trade could be a huge difference maker

1:10
Rocket Racoon: Sriracha on chilli?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Meh

1:10
Ray Kinsella: Does Meg sit next to you while you chat to edit your responses as you go?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If she did, my spelling in chats would be better.

1:10
Nick Fury: If Vegas were to become home to a team, what would you name them?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Vegas Vegas

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:11
Matt: Brandon Woodruff going to make the rotation out of ST, right? Is he a legit option as the back-of-the-rotation guy who could put up a surprising season as a middle-top performer?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe that’s the hope.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He has a real chance at being the Brewers best starting pitcher IMO

1:12
Turtle Jetpack: What’s your over/under that at the end of Dipoto’s entire tenure, the players he traded for have more WAR than the players he traded away?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you’d need an FBI forensic accountant to unwind all trades.

1:12
tb.25: Magic the gathering?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Haven’t really gotten into Arena yet. I played MTG WAY back in the 90s

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But my friends got interested in things like their marriages and being adults and I didn’ thave people to play

1:13
Morbo: I’m having an uninspired day at work. Choose a new career for me

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Angry Huguenot activist who crashes SCOTUS sessions waving a giant flag and yelling about the Duke of Guise

1:14
LFC Mike: Who is the best  option for Rockies @2B this year?..as if they actually think about those types of things? Hampson or McMahon

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see McMahon, but I think Hampson will be valuable.

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wish they’d trade McMahon before they waste TWO years of his career.

1:15
Turtle Jetpack: Have you coded sandwich characteristics and run some ordinal statistics to get a better visual on the trait space sandwiches occupy?  What are the key axes of sandwich differentiation?

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:15
Tom Brady Anderson: not a question of whether you think the Reds will do this, but do you think it’d be worthwhile for them to break the bank for one year of Keuchel? give him an exorbitant AAV to help them truly win right now

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do. If you’re going all-in, you should really go all-in

1:16
Matt: I believe that all people have the right to eat each meal while laying on a couch being hand fed, and fanned with a giant fern leaf. If that’s socialism, then fine, I’m a socialist.

1:16
carl: Does Machado hit got less homers due to NL West ( not counting Coors)

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

1:16
Ranger: Am I fool for keeping a $3 devers over a $5 hicks in an obp league

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s weird to think about, but Aaron Hicks is a legitimate All-Star type now.

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And while I like Devers, 3B is incredibly deep right now

1:17
Morbo: Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, which team is most likely to miss the playoffs?

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Weirdly, I think Cubs have the highest upside but the biggest downside of the three

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the rotation is fine, but the wheels could come off VERY quickly

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the Cubs are better than the BP prediction, but even if the BP is low, I think they’re seeing some of the signs of a real downside on the team

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They also have fewer minor league assets to trade for MLB help

1:18
neilage: Ironically, over at Food.com, there is a very in-depth SABRmetrics live chat happening.

1:18
Groot: What do you see the Phillies doing with their extra outfielders? Keep them in case or trade them?

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be spares – I don’t really think the players losing starting jobs are actually starters

1:18
Siri: Who is your favorite rookie to make a big impact this year, other than Vladito?

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eloy

1:19
Gub Gub: How can we add gambling to your chat?  What could we bet on that is largely out of the control of individual posters?

1:19
neilage: For the rare question that is baseball related, your answers are either too vague or avoid answering the question altogether.

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “I keep buying all these death metal albums, and they’re all way too loud!”

1:20
Chili: who did Fangraphs hire to replace the significant losses of late?

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: TBA

1:20
Black Widow: What part of baseball  should I write my thesis on?

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the round part

1:20
mackel: can you please tell eric that his fantasy team sucks?

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Does it? I don’t want Eric to think I’m a liar

1:21
Turtle Jetpack: Who is the best third baseman that can’t get a job in MLB?  Hudson Potts?  Austin Riley?  Other?

1:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If he hadn’t signed, I could have made the Moustakas joke here.

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s say Vlad…

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If we don’t, it may very well be Riley, but he will get a job

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: then maybe Yandy Diaz?

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ryan McMahon?

1:22
mackel: do you buy in on Zips low counting stats for Votto this year?

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure those are actually low

1:22
Turtle Jetpack: If my actual name is Gregor, is the probability that I am taller than Julian pre-ordained?

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Correct. See Gregor Clegane

1:23
Ben: What chili peppers should I grow in my backyard for chili making?

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends on climate, I would imagine

1:23
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Do you do any non-sports, non-gaming writing?  Is there a Szymborski mystery novel floating around?

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not since college really

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have all sorts of weird short stories and poems floating around, none of which I feel are fit for publication

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: like The Pleasure Dome of Jason Jacome

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I also have a short story somewhere from when I was like 19 when Tiny Tim grows up and becomes a military strongman that causes the UK to turn authoritarian and a very elderly Scrooge has to visit the Christmas ghosts so that they can fix history

1:25
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Worst baseball movie?

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Summer Catch

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: that’s the movie that ended my personal policy fo watching all baseball movies

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: most overrated is Field of Dreams

1:25
TomBruno23: Do you read any baseball books? If so, what are some of your favorites off the top of your head? I’m a couple of chapters into Veeck As In Wreck and I’ve laughed out loud several times already.

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I always enjoyed Helyar’s Lords of the REalm

1:26
Ontilt1377: A hot is never a sandwich. If you take away the bread it’s still a hot dog.

1:26
Eric: My team does not suck, Dan. Mackel thinks Skyline Chili is the best type of chili.

1:26
Dan: I second brianh. We need three year zips. Actually it would be great to see historical zips too but I don’t want to be greedy.

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We ought to have ZiPS three year up this season

1:26
Fat Tub of Goo: Are you of the opinion that Tatis will eventually be forced to move off SS?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility for any player that young, but I would keep him at SS until/unless he proves he can’t hack it

1:27
Matt: Is there any evidence that the elite tier of baseball players is more significantly removed from the non-elite tier? And, could this be a driver in the diminishing prices of many…do to a bias of not-goodness?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As I go through data, there is an increasing tendency to non-linear $/WAR working better than linear

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Linear never made sense on a philosophical level, but it worked. It *appears* to be changing

1:29
Siri: Re: rookies… also meant to exclude Eloy.  I feel like those two are the obv choices.  Who would be your next pick?

1:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s Robles and Senzel

1:29
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: You state that batting order has no predictive value for a given player, but could it under extreme circumstances?  Like if you batted Goldy 8th all year wouldn’t you expect his walk totals to increase and his power totals (not rates) to decrease?

1:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It COULD be, but the noise is so large that by the team it’s meaningful, it’s going to be a LONG time

1:29
Tel: Your sandwich chart has a major loophole in the structure purist definition – bread/baked product would seem to include any baked product, but I doubt a structure purist would agree that meat between two slices of cake would be a sandwich. Or between to pieces of baked chicken for that matter.

1:29
dave in slc: i dont get the zips (or other) projections. if i look at pitchers like half of the first page are relievers and a handful you have never heard of. if i tried putting together a fantasy team with that i would get killed. what am i missing?

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Do you have something specific?

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit general

1:30
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: I’m pretty sure your Tiny Tim story was turned into an episode of Family Ties

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: though save it for next week as I’m about to end chat!

1:30
ballsandgutters: Chris Davis, Alex Cobb and Mark Trumbo combine for how many WAR for their $48M?

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ma ctually optimistic on Cobb

1:30
Matt: If ZiPS were a hotdog, would it be chili?

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s insane

1:30
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: The sandlot 2 is the worst baseball movie

1:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I had no idea there was a sandlot 2

1:31
Matt: Do you support Manfred forcing adoption of the term “baseballers”?

1:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like something more fancified.

1:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like baseballier or baseballeteer

1:31
Loki: Where does Bad News Bears land on your all time list?

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Way up there. The ORIGINAL mind you

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: not when they go to houston or japan

1:32
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Was your Summer Catch breaking point when the main guy sucks all season and then throws one good pitch and all the scouts want to sign him?

1:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve had years of therapy trying to forget the movie and I’m not having you ruin it

1:32
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: everytime Vlad Jr is mentioned it should be followed up with a #thanksjerry – Dipoto signed Roberto Baldoquin for 8 mm 6 months before Vlad signed with Toronto, eliminating them from any chance of signing him. Imagine Vlad Jr playing with Trout right now… #thanksjerry

1:32
Loki: The original Bad News Bears is the only on worth watching

1:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Bad News Bears tv show may have been even worse

1:33
Anonymous: Who are the big names retiring after the 2019 season?

1:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn’t make it to 2019. Asher Wojciechowski hasn’t made his intentions clear

1:34
Matt: Why so negative? Can’t we have the Good News Bears? Maybe even the Good News Bunny Rabbits?

1:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That sounds as bad a show as Cards For Improving Humanity would be a game

1:34
Really Random Internet Guy: Nap Time Dan…tell your little friends its time to go home…..

1:34
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Peter Gammons gave a glowing review to Summer Catch.

1:34
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Bad News Bears Breaking Training is goofy fun.  The Japan one is worse than Summer Catch.

1:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No way, I’d take the Japan one first

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Breaking Training was obnoxious because you want to spend half the time wanting to MURDER CARMEN RONZONI

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If someone told me he grew up to be Tim Tebow, I’d below you

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: believe

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (except for the fact that he’s probably like 50)

1:35
dave in slc: how about the fact that it has giovanny gallegos ranked higher than max scherzer and scherzer is 21st on the list and should easy be top 5 in any rater. in what world does that make sense?

1:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In what ranking? Scherzer crushes him in WAR

1:36
Anonymous: Literally big names. I hate that I love you, daniel

1:36
Iron Man: Is Chase Utley a HOFer in your book? If so, how long will he spend on the ballot before election?

1:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes. One-and-done probably. Sadly

1:36
Anonymous: Breaking Bad News Bears

1:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “The Bad News Bears are a last place team until their plucky, booger-eating outfielder, Timmy Lupus, figures out how to synthesize crystal meth.”

1:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “PG-13 For Adult Dental Situations”

1:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, time to go

1:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve got doings in need of transpiring

1:38
Morbo: Do you remember when Dan said he was going to end the chat? Pepperidge Farm remembers!

1:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MILANOS

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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