Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/12/2020

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to SzymChat where the only thing contagious is friendship! And maybe chickenpox.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Let’s start with the obvious one: Will there be baseball on March 26th?

Dan Szymborski: No

jz: dan,

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even DONE anything yet.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Will players be paid their full salaries this season if games do get cancelled, or if they only play, say, 120 games, will players only get paid 120/162 of their salary?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they get paid, but I am not 100% sure about that.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, since it’s been a couple of weeks, I’m bringing back the Lightning Round.

Dan Szymborski: So I’m saving off-topic Qs for that round.

Guest: Do you prefer Jack Flaherty or Shane Bieber?

Dan Szymborski: Flaherty slight.

Dan Szymborski: Lee

jz: Dan, given that at this point, an extension seems pretty unlikely from Lindor, do you think the Indians are going to begin to look to “blow it up?” Or do you think it’s more likely that they attempt to remain in playoff contention until that window has been firmly closed? Seems like a bit of a strange situation on that team.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ll move him this year, but I think they will next winter

Outta my way, Gyorkass: The Brewers, a small market team who relies heavily on paid attendance & revenue from in game attendance, would get hit devastatingly hard by lost revenue from non-attended or cancelled games. Does MLB have some sort of contingiency plan in place to help teams out in a case like this where a major segment of the season stands to be effectively unable to generate in-stadium revenue?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any specific knowledge of what MLB does in this situation; I have to think I never really consider MLB and civil emergency

Dan Szymborski: But given how poorly MLB prepares for things, I’d be mildly surprised if they ahd a plan

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Corbin Burnes: Was 2019 a flukishly bad season, or was his relatively decent run in 2018 the fluke, and last season is who he really is?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s largely a fluke

Guest: The NBA has suspended their games until further notice…isn’t Major League Baseball going to do the same thing, you can’t have 30 or 40 thousand people together in a confined space

SB: Which bad team with a good farm system do you have the most faith in?

Dan Szymborski: Marlins maybe?

Kane: Think Kelenic makes it to the show this year?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe for a wee espresso

sodo mojo: So as a person who has worked from home for most of their career what are your tips to those of are new to working from home on being productive?   Which I’m obviously not doing a good job at right now.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Not a question, but there is a restaurant in Miller Park that just opened, literally called the “Restaurant to be Named Later”.

Siri: Do you prefer an $8 Moose or an $8 Hiura? H2H categories league with OBP/SLG instead of BA.

Dan Szymborski: Hiura if you’re a weak team needing upside, Moose if you’re a stronger team that needs certainty.

Doug: Am I correct to assume Tatis was left off your ESPN article because zips projects him to play under 100 games for each of the next three seasons?

Dan Szymborski: yeah, he missed; ZiPS is suspicious about his playing time

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Dan, how much do you think my question to you influenced Mike Bolsinger to file a suit against the Astros?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t remember the Q

Dan Szymborski: but I imagine not

Aceman: Is Urshela good enough to cover up Gleybers miscues or do you see that being a problem?

Dan Szymborski: Urshela’s just an averageish 3B

Dan Szymborski: And really, unless Torres is sub-Hanley bad, it’s pretty much a who cares unless he’s not hitting, which he ought to be

Jerome: ZIPS thinks that Barreto is a tier above Machin and Mateo and should be the clear favorite for the platoon job next to Kemp (Pinder needs to play OF with the Piscotty injury). Do you agree and do you think the A’s agree?

Dan Szymborski: I think options will result in Barretto/Mateo being prioritized

Dan Szymborski: Though as I’ve joked, my desired result is an 80/20 Barreto/Pinder split so I can call it the Parreto Principle

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: How amazing would it be for a pitcher to call his pitches in a game against the Astros like Bauer did?  I mean it in a ‘just to be an ass’ kind of way.

Dan Szymborski: I like trolling

Paxton: Looks like I get to play a full season

Dan Szymborski: Technically, I suspect nobody’s playing a full season!

Guest: Long-term, Gavin Lux or Keston Hiura?

Dan Szymborski: Lux

Astros: Can’t get booed if there aren’t any games!

D: Hi Dan, off the top of your head, does the Yelich extension tell us anything about how much Betts or Lindor should expect, or should have expected during recent negotiations?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it tells us anything new

Dan Szymborski: Yelich’s contract is about what you expect given the service time

Stephen: Should MLB Postpone the start of the season a month? If it is not safe until May 1st should they make up the games and play into November? I know it might be too early at this stage to think about how they deal with fallout if they can’t play, but it is still kind of interesting to consider the potential options.

Dan Szymborski: I’d make up the games, but I’m not sure how MLB feels

Dan Szymborski: Probably would hae to involve lots of doubleheaders, which teams and players don’t like

Dan Szymborski: so probably won’t happen

devin has cheeto lips: See anything special in Linblom or Houser?  Enough to make the Brewskis

Dan Szymborski: They’ll both be on the team

Dan Szymborski: Back to MLB and COVID; we’re in new territory here

Dan Szymborski: so I really have no idea what’s going to happen a day, a week, a month from now

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure MLB even knows

2020: So this is gonna be another of those years in great players’ counting stats (like Trout’s WAR) we have to discount like 94, right? In fact I HOPE it’s like 94 and not, uh, war credit entire season stuff.

bk: stay safe Dan!

Dan Szymborski: I’m awesome at social distancing, so if I get sick, everyone else already is!

Dan Szymborski: I swear, someone asked me about work at home productivity question and I didn’t answer it and I don’t know where it went

Dan Szymborski: Unless I’m losing my mind.

Dan Szymborski: Anyway, I think the best way to effectively work at home is to not do anything I do

Dan Szymborski: Because I’m a disorganized mess.

Dan Szymborski: So, I would say put yourself on a schedule. Dress like you would as if you were going somewhere. Don’t wander off and get tacos.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t get distracted by a video game release or crawling around chasing cats until your right knee is in intense pain because you’re a fat middle aged dude crawling on your knee

Dan Szymborski: Do not devote a section of your desk to used dishes.

D: Given that we’re going to have some baseball-free time soon, ever think about publishing some “what if” ZIPS projections? Like projecting Nomar if he hadn’t fallen apart after 03, etc.

Dan Szymborski: I think we’re wait-and-see

Dan Szymborski: Thankfully, not being a beat writer, I still have tasks to do

Dan Szymborski: Things like that and I always have a data work “to do” list a mile long

D: Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke: who ends up the best, who ends up in the Hall?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s still Kershaw in the end

OddBall Herrera: This is super important – if there’s no audience and so games are played in near total silence, we will quickly find out which pitchers make the most embarrassing noises when they throw the ball.  I bet you Bumgarner is a mad grunter.

KuruptFM: While doing the ZiPS breakdowns which players really surprised you with how high ZiPS was on them?

Dan Szymborski: One of my pieces coming!

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: With his 89mph blazing heater, is this the year Greinke becomes just average?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees more homers, but him still being effective

Appa Yip Yip: I don’t understand why people say baseball is hard if I were a baseball player I would simply do what Mike Trout does it’s easy

Josh: I ‘Ctrl+F’ the CBA for suspend, postpone, and cancel regarding the schedule, and found nothing, surprisingly.

ASManess: Thank you for infecting me with your friendship, Dan.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Rosenthal wrote about paying the players in this article about the league and COVID-19. No paywall. https://theathletic.com/1671443/2020/03/12/rosenthal-baseball-faces-ma…

Dan Szymborski: Sounds like the MLB/MLBPA did not plan for this specific issue

Jono: 1996 Yankes won the world series with only two players north of 20 HRs on the season (Tino Martinez and Bernie Williams!). When’s the next time that happens in baseball? ever?

Dan Szymborski: I was going to say 2015, but I forget about Kendrys

Dan Szymborski: Though if there’s two Kendrys, I’m not sure if it’s not 11 HR per Kendry

Bighen: should the Mets have Matz in starting rotation just to make sure they have a lefty or is there really no benefit added there? I think he’s better than or beats out wacha so point might be moo(Joey tribiani) anyway.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s better than Wacha

D: I can’t picture squeezing in another month’s worth of games. The season already goes into November, and you’d start getting snow outs and the like. Plus you don’t want Philly fans with snowballs.

Dan Szymborski: You could do playoffs in neutral warm-weather cities

Dan Szymborski: It’s not ideal, but it’s possible

162 games: What do you prefer, postponing the opening day but keeping the same 162 games or just shortening the length of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I personally prefer 162 games because more baseball > less baseball, but I’m not in charge of anything

Greg: For fantasy purposes, if the season is shortened, should strategies remain the same, or should we target higher floor players?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, I don’t think it drastically changes things other than making the end results more volatile

Cove Dweller: If MLB suspends the season, would you anticipate the down time to affect players’ performances negatively?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

Beeks: How much of a chance do you think Yelich has of catching Robin Yount for most career WAR as a Brewers?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly under 50%

Dan Szymborski: 50 WAR is a lot

OddBall Herrera: “Dress like you would as if you were going somewhere”  So pajamas then?

Insert Clever Name Here: Spring Training May be cancelled soon, per multiple sources.

D: Wait and see? I like see. I don’t like wait. Wait bad. See good.

Slapshot: If MLB goes ahead and suspends spring training games today, how long do you think Opening Day would have to be postponed so players can get back into game shape?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not really as much of a problem in 2020.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not 1930.

Price: re: neutral warm weather cities: Miami’s stadium should be awfully available come October…

LScott: If the season is delayed, do you think spring training games will be extended to keep players fresh?

Dan Szymborski: No

Jiman Choi Fanatics: If the delayed season start happens, who would be the biggest winner/loser of this? Maybe Yankees could be a winner, right?

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine teams with deeper rosters

OddBall Herrera: Is MLB playing with fire not suspending operations in the face of a virus that is well documented as bat borne?

Cove Dweller: Passan & others are reporting that ST will be suspended today.  

Dan Szymborski: Spring training is too long anyway, I feel

KuruptFM: Million dollar idea: Separate the divisions teams into neutral cities with baseball stadiums and have all the teams live together in compounds/mansions like reality TV. Teams still play each other so the season can start, they remain quarantined, and we get the MLB trash TV we’ve always wanted. Imagine the drama!!

mt: if it comes to a point where games get cancelled, its not going to be just 1 or 2 months of games.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I buy that logic.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of money involved. They’re not throwing in the towel easily.

Dan Szymborski: They’re not going to go “Oh well, no APril games, well, everyone just show up refreshed next year!”

mt: If games are suspended or played in empty parks, I’m not worried about the owners. The are billionaires. Worry about the concession workers and ushers and small businesses around the ballparks. They are going to get creamed.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: With the O’s projected putridity, wouldn’t they be better served for the future by giving Mountcastle as many ABs as possible this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: There’s no good reason for Chris Davis to ever where an Orioles uniform again.

Dan Szymborski: where?

Dan Szymborski: really dan?

Jay: I have a draft coming up Monday. That being said should I move up injured players on my board such as Verlander Paxton and Clevinger?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the worst idea

Joe: The Yankees would have to be the team to benefit the most from a postponed start, no?

Dan Szymborski: They’d certainly benefit

Dans lunch: When might we see the ZiPs spreadsheet?

Dan Szymborski: I have to finish my positions for our positional rankings first

PS: So who’s simulating the 2020 season, if parts of it can’t be played?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably do a lot of Twitch Diamond Mind

Dan Szymborski: maybe have readers as opposing managers?

LScott: Why do you think there is such a long delay regarding the results of the Red Sox investigation?

Dan Szymborski: I swear, Bryant’s arbitration hearing took 5 years

Price: Which is more likely following a postponed opening day: games made up or shortened season? cuz man oh man I wanted to watch my Redlegs play 162

Dan Szymborski: Shortened season more likely

KuruptFM: Re: Chris Davis
Following his fall (and hopeful rise) is the most intriguing thing about the orioles on the major league roster right now.

Matt Klentak: SOunds like no players are currently on the fields in Florida, baseball is shutting it down

Richard: Is this the big break that Esports has been waiting for?  How should they capitalize on this opportunity?

Dan Szymborski: Weirdly, they’re axing events too

Dan Szymborski: Because a lot of them play in person

Dan Szymborski: Though I think they should play online when stuff like this happens

Dan Szymborski: it’s kinda silly for a pandemic to cancel a video game tourney

Dan Szymborski: FOr some reason, questions have stopped coming

Chuncey Wiggins: Dan, how much rice have you stored away?

Dan Szymborski: I have more beans, I don’t really like rice that much

Chuncey Wiggins: But…why? You don’t use them for chili…

Dan Szymborski: There are many uses for beans

Dan Szymborski: Jus tnot chili

Uh Oh: So if you’re forced to self quarantine, how long would you hold out before you ended up having to make chili with those beans?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how fast I get tired of spaghetti and ramen

Jeff: Those beans will be excellent for chili

Dan Szymborski: No

KuruptFM: Dan confirmed eating beans on the side of chili as a loophole.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t say I’d eat them on the side

Dan Szymborski: there’s soups and stuff

Dan Szymborski: and you can just eat beans

Dan Szymborski: you don’t need a side for chili, you just eat chili

hold on now: Isn’t corn bread a traditional side for chili?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I don’t do it personally

Dan Szymborski: It’s not verboten or anything

Guest: I don’t see people putting forward the empty stadium options for getting in 162

Sir Nerdlington: I get playing fan-less games, but the psychological distraction provided by sports can’t be overstated. Let’s (keep) play(ing) ball!

LFC Mike: Has anyone tried Skyline Chili as an anti-viral?

Dan Szymborski: The cure is worse than the disease!

BlueJayMatt: What’s your favourite cheese?

Dan Szymborski: I like a good Fourme de Montbrison

Buccpocalypse: Have you ever considered using ZIPS to “back-project” how good a player “could have been”? For example, if you showed ZIPS only Charlie Morton’s recent seasons, could it tell you how good it thinks he would have been over his career?

Dan Szymborski: I do that at times

Dan Szymborski: Like I’ve done it for Eric Davis

Dan Szymborski: and both sides for Al Rosen

klabeck: The psychological distraction provided by sports can be overstated. Sports don’t matter

Johnny5alive: How easy is it to go from an in person auction draft to online? Never done an online draft before but I’m thinking it might be best to try.

Dan Szymborski: Seems it wouldn’t be hard, but I’m an online guy

Guest: Will Addison Russell play this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll eventually get signed

Jason: Not having baseball is going to really really really suck

jacko: head to head points league redraft, who should be drafted first in your opinion….josh bell or Matt Olson?

Dan Szymborski: Olson

TKDC: am I getting a refund on my mlb.tv subscription?

Dan Szymborski: No idea at all

Dan Szymborski: I’m just answering off-topic Qs; not enough traffic today to hold over Qs

Jason: Do you drink sour beers?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I’m not *huge* on them

jacko: head to head points league who should go first, JD Martinez or Bryce harper? and then what about meadows or Gallo?

Dan Szymborski: I’d still go with Harper first and Meadows easily

Jason: Would you rather be suspended from your cats for a month or have baseball be suspended for 2 months?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, do I just not see cats or they starve to death or something?

pirates hurdles: does the poor attendance argue that a big part of your chat group are college kids?

LFC Mike: Which MLB GM would you like to be quarantined with so you could berate him for two weeks straight?

Dan Szymborski: Bridich

Dan Szymborski: and if I get mad and have a stroke, he can perform brain surgery!

Jason: You don’t see your cats. They are taken care of but living somewhere else and you cannot come into contact with any other cats.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, then I’ll take the baseball over the cats

Dan Szymborski: As long as they’re fine, I like having job security

Guest: Should more teams sell their baseball teams/games as an awesome, laid-back, enjoyable pass-time?  Seems like it could remove a lot of the negative “only one happy team at the end of the season” mindset.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Or sell the teams at ALL

Dan Szymborski: Like the Red Sox making sure to announce they had to dump Betts as many times as possible.

Dan Szymborski: Have you ever seen McDonald’s advertise “Come have the new mediocreburger. Our revenues are down so we’ll make our burgers shitty!”

Jason: You heard the man God. Send his cats to the neighbors and give us baseball.

Jason: Which do hate the most, the 3 batter minimum or the new roster rules around two-way players and position players pitching?

Dan Szymborski: The latter because of the way they did that

Dan Szymborski: They made the bright lines on the latter way too high

Poor attendance: It’s just a sign that the world is going dark.  I can only attend today because I’m ahead in preparing for our Mad Max future.  I’m hoping for a job thrashing a guitar at the forefront of the local warlord’s makeshift car armada

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a useful skill set for the apocalypse

Dan Szymborski: And really, no internet, no a/c in the summer, I’m not down with that

Dan: I’ve been busy during chats for a while know but I’m curious how much Severino would likely have made if he went year to year in arbitration and had the same injury/stats/playing time as he did in real life?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’ll doa  piece

klabeck: So far I have drafted Trout, JRam, deGrom, Gerrit Cole & Wander Franco for my ottoneu squad,  who will be the worst major leaguer I roster this year?   14 team

Dan Szymborski: Dol you own all 14 teams?

Dan Szymborski: Franco’s not going to be valuable in 2020

Dan Szymborski: Not because he sucks of course

Logan: ZIPS says the Dodgers’ Cody Thomas would turn in -1.3 WAR if he played a full season.  Does his spring training alter your personal thoughts about him at all?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

Dan Szymborski: Last year’s spring HR leaders included Lew Brinson, Travis Shaw, Jung Ho Kang

chili: how did you become a writer/contributor for FanGraphs?

Dan Szymborski: Well, I worked for ESPN and then I was hired to write here.

Dan Szymborski: I then I filled out a new w5

Trent: Arcia or Urias for the Brewers at SS?  The former was terrible last year, but that was driven partly by a paltry BABIP, and he’s looked much better in the spring; the latter has much more upside, but he too failed to hit last year, and he’s been slowed by a wrist injury so far this year.

Dan Szymborski: Urias

Morbo: Which of these two options constitutes a better fantasy baseball team name, “Reese’s Public Pieces” or “Peter Peter Reese’s Beater”? Can you make this a poll? (was very tempted to spell poll pole)

Dan Szymborski: Will the result be binding?

Morbo: Sure?

Dan Szymborski:

Morbo: I will name one of my fantasy teams the winning name

Morgan: Does Zack Collins have a long-term place in Chicago with Vaughn, Grandal, and Abreu around?  What team might be interested in him if he’s a trade candidate?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be in another org eventually

mt: My thinking on suspending the season lasting more than 1 or 2 months is that the virus is not going to just stop spreading in May, unless it turns out to be affected by heat and humidity (like flue, which isn’t known yet.

Dan Szymborski: At the rate we’re blowing up — and I’m assuming we do a crap job of flattening the curve — I think the worst will be over

KuruptFM: I’m ashamed to admit I’ve already resorted to cannibalism in this hellscape. Everyone in the office appears to be understanding, besides Mr. Lunch of course.

Springer McSpaniel: Jose Marmolejos is Paddington’s jam.

Olsen: What ever happened to Ryan Zimmerman’s defamation lawsuit against Al Jazeera for their steroid “documentary”?

Dan Szymborski: It’s been a while since I heard about that. No idea

Garrett: Dan, what does the neural network have to say about COVID-19 affecting baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see

Dan Szymborski: well, bad news if you’re a Giants or Pirates fan

Dan Szymborski:

Springer McSpaniel: But seriously, talk me down and tell me why Marmolejos isn’t a very good sleeper bat in the mold of Jose Martinez? Could be helpful, right?

Dan Szymborski: He’s at least interesting. Seems like the type who ends up in Japan

Greg: If a player is on the 26-man roster for both games of a doubleheader, does he get two days of service time?

Dan Szymborski: Not normally since it’s days and not games, but I imaigne something would have to be changed in a shortened season

Dan Szymborski: Everyone in 1995 got a full year of service time

Morbo: what time will the chat be over today? so I can post proof of naming a fantasy team the winning result?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to close it in about 5 minutes as I have other work to do

Dan Szymborski: You can post the proof next week!

Dan Szymborski: Assuming you’re healthy

Dan Szymborski: if I’m not, you can do it in Ben or Jay’s chat and confuse them

Ronaldo: I know what ZiPS thinks about Matt Olson, but what do you think about him? He’s one of the players I’m most excited to watch this season.

Dan Szymborski: I like him a lot

Insert Clever Name Here: Other work as in figuring out how to use your projecting skills in the upcoming apocalypse?

Dan Szymborski: Getting the ZiPS in-season stuff ready

Dan Szymborski: Still want to plan things normally

Kyle Brune: H2H points league: Would you rather keep a $0 Gallen or a $0 Luzardo

Dan Szymborski: Gallen for certainty, Luzardo for upside

Morbo: I’m sure ill be fine I’m actually a news monster and therefore immune to the corona virus

Will: Is there a schedule for when each team’s prospect ranking list will come out? I’ve been eagerly awaiting the list for the Mariners

Dan Szymborski: I believe there’s a list, but I am not privy to it

Dan Szymborski: And even if it were, I don’t even tell you guys the *ZiPS* order!

Slapshot: What four pro wrestlers would you put on your version of a pro wrestling Mount Rushmore?

Dan Szymborski: Guerrero/Hart/Flair for sure

Dan Szymborski: Even brain-damaged, I can hardly put Benoit up there, even if he was my favorite wrestler at the…uh…time

Dan Szymborski: I’ll go with Hennig

LScott: Your bobblehead collection includes………….

Dan Szymborski: Suarez.

Dan Szymborski: End.

Dan Szymborski: From a giveaway awhile back

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really collect physical things

Springer McSpaniel: So, projections think the Mariners are somewhere between bad and horrible.  As a Mariner fan, I find this a little lazy.  Walker, Graveman, and Marco should be average. I think Sheffield and Kikuchi are going to be better than that.  The lineup is so young, I get dinging them for lack of track record, but their range of outcomes is very high.  Am I thinking too hard about projections, or not hard enough?

Dan Szymborski: How are computer projections lazy?

huh?: You collect metaphysical things?

Dan Szymborski: I’m more of a digital hoarder

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to end the chat for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Hope to see you all next week!

Dan Szymborski: And the poll has ended Morbo