Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/18/21

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And greeting! Sorry about no chat last week, but I was not feeling well!

12:00
Sodo Mojo: I know that springs stats are noise but is there anything you’ve seen from Tramell’s approach this spring that shows progress in his profile?

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly played well! I haven’t seen him play though, so I can’t say much for the change. Spring stats are *slightly* meaningful, but it’s smart to be careful about excitement.

12:02
druidiful: Hi Dan, just wanted to say “hi” and keep doing the good work!

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yo!

12:02
You da Bohm: Enrique Hernandez has looked really good at leadoff this spring, but historically he hasn’t been much of an on-base guy. Do we think a new team and a change in approach and park can make a difference?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Coudln’t hurt! But I doubt the Dodgers were discouraging him from getting on base.

12:02
Guest: Dan, did you watch AEW Revolution? I thought they handled the botched ending really well on Dynamite. Eddie Kingston still comes off looking foolish, but Kenny used it to generate quite a bit of heat.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I missed it, sadly

12:03
Chip: I have one minors slot in my redraft league. Do I target Kelenic, Vaughn, Franco, someone else? (6×6, OBP, SLG, -AVG).

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Kelenic is a fun target if he’s available

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Vaughn is quite risky

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the Rays don’t seem to be burning to aggressively promote Wander

12:04
jimmy j: Am I crazy to think that Eloy and Gallo are fairly close in OBP leagues but not in BA leagues?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure *crazy* but I don’t think they’re close in any league.

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gallo has to hit .250 to have an awesome OBP really

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and RBI are going to be awful in Texas

12:05
Concrete Fan: Best cat names you haven’t already used for your own cats?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve wanted to use the name Prospero for a cat

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My last adopted pair was two littermates in 2019 and I could have called them Prospero/Antonio since they were brothers, but if people don’t know that the other is Prospero, they’ll just think I gave the cat a normal human name

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And normal human names seem weird for cats.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here’s my cat, Gary!

12:07
Tim Anderson’s L/R Splits: Hi Dan- which team do you think provides the widest range of outcomes? Is there a team that could win 95 games, 80 games, or anywhere in between?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked at what ZiPS says, but I think I might say Astros

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They have *big* stars on the offense and huge upside, but the pitching could fall apart very easily

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Cubs?

12:08
Frankie23: What’s the #1 stat you look at in spring training for hitters and pitchers?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t have a go to

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the spring, I look for different things from different players

12:09
alex parmigiano: Marco G’s a legitimate #2 starter, am I wrong?  Thanks.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you’re necessarily wrong, though I’m probably slightly bearish on that

12:09
Jeff: Brailyn Marquez or Garrett Crochet, who does ZiPs got?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS prefers Crochet

12:09
Concrete Fan: How does ZIPS ‘deal’ with players that play through injury at the cost of their production (quality) ?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Poorly

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can identify discrete appearances on injured lists and specific injuries

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The unknown effect of a guy playing through a hamstring tweak? Much harder

12:09
Nick: A few weeks ago I asked you what a fair Bieber extension would look like, and you said you didn’t want to answer because you were writing an article on the topic.  Perfidy!

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still on my to do list!

12:10
Concrete Fan: What would be the most Rockies thing to do in 2021?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Chris Owings gets more plate appearances than Brendan Rodgers

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though if you mean more the most Rockies thing you can do in life

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe cancelling your vaccine appointment because there’s a brunch special you really like

12:11
Gashouse Gorilla: Have there been a front office(s) that you feel has distinguished themselves this offseason? Conversely, a team or team that has gone backwards through poor judgment?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the Mets have done very well and my opinion of the Blue Jays has increased

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My opinion of the Reds — and yes, there’s a major change there — has gone down significantly

12:11
Matt (Oceanside): Hi Dan! Thank you for the chat! Was thinking about how exactly pitchers are going to managed this year as far as workload. Some of it seems hard to think through. For example, a young pitcher that is capped at 120 IP for the year is slated for the rotation of hypothetical team at the beginning of the year because he is one of the teams top 3 pitchers. Obviously they would want him in the rotation for the postseason, so what do they do? Do they pitch him 80-90 IP at the beginning, give him a break, and ramp him back up at the end? Give him the early starts, put him in the bullpen, ramp him back up? What kind of effect could this have on a young pitcher….or even an older pitcher that is capped at 150-170 IP? Even if you spread them out and give everyone periods of rest on the “10-day DL,

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It still remains to be seen, but I would wager rather than a sudden dropoff in playing time, that you’ll generally see more four and five-inning specials than even the last few years

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think we may see a resurgence in use of actual long relievers

12:13
Jeff: How would the Cubs be perceived if their payroll was even lower and they had the same roster?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Umm, even cheaper? I’m not sure I understand the question

12:13
Todd: CJ Abrams or Bobby Witt jr?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think right now, Abrams is the more technically advanced hitter

12:14
Phillip P.: The Juan Soto ZiPS projection through age 36 was jaw dropping. For comparison sake, what does Acuna’s projection through the same age look like?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jay actually has Acuña ZiPS which he may do something with! If he doesn’t, I’ll mention it in a week or so. ZiPS loves him too, suffice it to say

12:16
Matt: Do you think the Phillies should start Odubel Herrera in CF?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As long as they’re employing him, he’s probably the best option in center

12:17
Todd: There should be an article that talks about players who completely sucked in spring training but then turned it around once the season started

12:17
mookieeeeee: Your opening line of the FG page is iconic today “least hungover” thank you for that! Seriously though: do you think JV makes starts anymore or becomes a John Smoltz-esque closer?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll start, assuming he comes back

12:17
Hi Dan: Dan, Are you expecting a lot of trades this year, and can you recommend a website with a handy list of all the impending free agents?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I expect a more normal season trade wise

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Especially without the Every Halfway Decent Team Makes the Playoffs Anyway plyayoffs

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: spotrac is pretty good for upcoming FAs

12:18
Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan, I know you’ve gotten Shrek & Goering before…What about this specific portrait of Napoleon???

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I tend to have very Germanic, Augustus Gloop-like features

12:18
LFC Mike: Paging Dr. Szym.   Can you give any assessment to Framber V.  not having to have surgery? Was looking for a timetable for his return but haven’t see one. It is just one day since the announcement… like many..  I have upcoming drafts.  Thanks

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OH GOD IF IM THE DOCTOR EVERYONE’S GONNA DIE

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The last I saw, he wouldn’t; be ready for Opening Day, but I kinda get the feeling that he could come back sometime in May, carefully

12:19
45 blows billygoats: Have we decided how the new Texas ballpark is going to play?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still too early. It seems like a mildly pitcher-friendly environment, but one-year park factors are garbage, let alone two month park factors

12:20
Adam: With revenue projections for this season feeling more solid than during the winter, do you think some teams that sat out free agency might spend at least a little at the trade deadline?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think what would likely open up the wallets better is some kind of breakthrough in the CBA

12:20
Concrete Fan: If you could change your name (both forename and surname) into anything else, would you want to do that? If so, what would your new name be?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m fine with my name. I’ve had my name for 42 years, it seems like a waste to switch it up for the second half

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It would kinda be a betrayal of all the people who learned how to spell my last name

12:22
MoonBeamMcSwine: The Indians middle infield logjam is shaping up to a battle by these three guys: Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio… Who plays SS, then who moves to 2B and 3B at the ML level?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Indians will set things in stone at this point

12:22
Jeff: Who do you think leads the leagues in IP? Cole in the AL, Hendricks in the NL?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cole seems like a good bet.

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Scherzer if he stays healthy in the NL, though the Mets might ride the bejeesus out of deGrom

12:22
Jeff: What kind of season does Kris Bryant need to get back on a HOF track?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A normal Bryant season woudl be helpful!

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One problem is that the Hall voters have done an almost universally incompetent job at mid-spectrum players (2B, 3B, CF)

12:25
Adam: How should the Dodgers divvy up the starts at catcher?  Smith’s bat is elite but I’m hearing his framing last year was pretty significantly worse than Barnes’.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you’ll see Smith as the clear-cut starter with a typical numbe rof catcher starts and Barnes bein the more-flexible-than-usual backup catcher

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Smith’s record isn’t long enough to be too worried. Yet.

12:26
ryan: how do you feel about the reds’ plan to (seemingly) play Suarez at SS? how much does that improve the outlook for their season?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They REALLY don’t want to ever look at Senzel there again, it seems

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not that excited

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even if Suarez handles it relatively well, he’s not one of the team’s outfielders

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s where the surplus talent is!

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think India is a major leaguer right now at 2nd (assuming Moose to 3rd) and Dee Gordon and Flashito hasn’t really been for like four years

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As configured, Suarez at short just moves around the gaping hole

12:28
Q: Any early thoughts about any of the various rule changes being implemented throughout the minors? Personally I’m against restricting unique defensive alignments, but the prospect of rigging a higher babip might be worth it. Larger bases inducing more steals could be fun as well

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m against restrictions on defensive alignments

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m all for things that have a de facto reduction in base distance!

12:29
Big Mac: In the “Win Per Dollar” article you wrote, there’s a player who is making just shy of $12m or so, but projected at about 0.1 WAR. Who is that? (Rosenthal?)

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is *not* sold on Rosey

12:29
Rob: Think it’s likely Drew Smyly logs 150 IP with the Braves? If so, what would you expect from him? Kind of hard to gauge his track record, but he’s got so much potential.

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would not want to wager on Guy staying healthy for 150 innings

12:30
Guest: How many MLB PAs does Kelenic get this season?

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ima gonna say 200

12:30
Nick: How big a swing is it for the Nats this year between Soto’s 50th and 90th percentile outcomes? Ben’s bold prediction piece had a 200 wRC+ Soto season, and I’m wondering how much that sort of feat would forgive the other sins of the team

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Soto’s already projected as full of wins, so I dont’ think that’s a big Nats swing

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The team’s depth is pretty atrocious, so I think the big swing is injury-related

12:30
Nick: re: shakespearean cat names – my guy’s name is Tybalt (aka “the prince of cats”, per mercutio)

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My sister’s cat when she lived in England was Tybalt!

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He stayed with her ex-husband’s family – they have a large country estate and Tybalt loved it there

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which is why I let her name the tux cat I got who looked like Tybalt. So that’s why I have Mercutio!

12:31
Cat Gary: Meow!

12:31
Guest: What are the chances Bobby Witt Jr. starts the season in the big leagues?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think longer than people think

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m against teams manipulating service time clocks as much as anyone

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I dont’ think giving a guy a longer minor league history than two months of rookie ball after high school is unreasonable

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Witt *is* ready, he’ll be able to show it pretty quickly against minor leagers

12:33
Jeb: Are you going to play the Diablo 2 remaster?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure

12:33
Adam: Which division is most likely to get both of its league’s wild card berths?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: AL East

12:33
Chip: With the ball presumably being slightly deader, does that help aces like Scherzer whose Achilles heel is the dinger?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It might, but after talking with Doc Wills about it, I’m less than convinced

12:33
GBS42: Cardinals rotation: doomed, let the kids play, or sign a vet (Porcello?) to eat some innings?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Porcello as a swingman wouldn’t be a bad pickup

12:33
Guest: does ZiPS get updated during Spring Training? And does that get rolled into the Depth Charts regularly?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It does not. It may in the future

12:34
Jeff in T.O.: We had a cat named Floyd when I was a kid. I rescued it from a tree and it had kittens on my sisters bed that night!

12:34
Lim: Hi Dan, what do you/Zips think of Hiura at first base in 2021? Long term? Could he be a star or is he just a regular (or worse) now?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s such an interesting package of skills

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He can certainly be a star.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think it’s an inevitability

12:34
Tim Anderson’s L/R Splits: How do you think moving to right field impacts Juan Soto’s value? Do you think there’s any room for defensive improvement, or is he stuck at his current levels?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He coudl improve somewhat. He’s not Hundley out there. I don’t expect he’ll ever be a big plus there

12:35
Will: is luzardo a future ace?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s out of the question at all

12:35
MoonBeamMcSwine: A Jose Ramirez extension on his already extended contract would look like 4/124 to 5/150 added to the 3/34? If he doesn’t sign, can this be the opening salvo in an attempt by the Indians to trade him?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Indians would actually sign that

12:36
Mr. Roper & Jack Tripper: You made us a promise 2 weeks ago Dan. We are tingling with excitement. Come and Knock on our Door Dan….you promised….

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have my microphone hooked upa t the moment!

12:37
GBS42: What are 1-2 ZIPS predictions that were the most surprising to you? Good or bad, this year or ever.

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bieber was the most surprising I think

12:37
BettsBellingerCaruso: Will the Dodgers regret letting Kenta Maeda go?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maeda’s good, but the Dodgers can sign guys like him

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And really, it’s nice to see Maeda go to a team that’ll just stick him in the rotation and see how high his peak is

12:38
Motown Oden: Did your 116 oz chili bag contain chili, or bean stew? Have you ever ordered chili at Wendy’s, and if so, do you order chili, or ask for bean stew? If you see chili cheese fries on a menu, do you ask if they are covered in chili, or bean stew? These are important questions, Dan, and need to be answered.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t actually BUY the chili!

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was just noting that the restaurant sold chili in two sizes: a cup vs. 7.25 pounds

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: a BAG of 7.25 pounds, that is

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do not order chili from fast food places

12:43
BettsBellingerCaruso: What’s the GOAT national anthem

Top 3 has to be Russian Anthem, La Marseillaise and the German one (originally Haydn’s piece for the Habsburgs, and especially the String Quartet version, “Emperor” OP 76 no. 3 2nd movement)

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Those are all good ones.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m a fan of Israel’s national anthem, in part because the melody is an old Italian one that I’ve always been rather partial to

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a similar melody one to Vltava from Smetana’s Ma Vlast

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Uruguay’s is a lot of fun!

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:46
Adam: This is not a question, but All-Star game uniforms should be in the color scheme of the host team.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here’s what I would do: players have to wear the same uniform that their team did the last time they won the World Series

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and for teams that haven’t yet won a World Series, players have to play in the uniforms they played in their inaugural seasons

12:47
Pumpsie Green: What name did you have for the other 20 years of your life?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m 42!

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My avatar is not me

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My avatar is an aged picture of me.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I use the avatar for the Old Dan Szymborski tweets, in which I troll by making tweets that I might tweet in 40 years

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, 30 years

12:50
Saves/Holds: Are holds more volatile than saves year to year? In a SV/H league, are Nick Anderson and Devin Williams in the same tier as top closers?

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found them as MORE volatile

12:50
Guest: Szymbob! Love to see this chat on a dragging thursday. Thoughts on the scintillating new pitch for Glasnow?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like him having a harder pitch with a bit of break

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s kind of a two-pitch pitcher right now since he doesn’t really use a changeup in more than passing

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wish Gausman could get one of his third pitches to stick!

12:52
Will: Will we see more relievers in the Alex Reyes hybrid type role (100 or so innings)?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think this is very possible!

12:52
Slew (Seattle): Getting my Covid shot today! Yay!

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Congrats! I got my first shot scheduled for next Friday

12:53
Guest: Any time left for Mize to salvage a rotation spot, or is he destined for AAA?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he could use some time in AAA

12:53
Guest: Has Kirilloff already lost the Twins’ RF job to Rooker?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I sure hope not

12:53
Eric Stonebraker: What are your thoughts on the White Sox rotation?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a really solid one. Gio is lit (oh), Keuchel’s a good fit for the park. I like Lynn a lot. There’s actually some depth there now

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reynaldo Lopez is a lot more appealing when he’s your eighth option rather than one you intend to stick in the middle of your rotation

12:54
Guest: Andres Gimenez was good last year, as a 21 year old without a ton of upper-level minors experience. He’s looking even better this spring. He seems like he could be a fairly consistent 3-4 WAR guy, based on defense, baserunning, and decent hitting. He’s also going to be cheap for a while. As good as Francisco Lindor is, am I wrong in wondering whether the Mets could have been better off, in terms of payroll flexibility (and longer-term certainty at the SS position) keeping Gimenez? For the salary difference between Gimenez and Lindor, they could basically be paying Realmuto, and to me, Gimenez + Realmuto may be worth more than Lindor alone. I know they got Carrasco in the trade, as well, but they also gave up some decent prospects alongside Gimenez. And now they have the stress of re-signing Lindor. Am I worrying too much? Maybe it’s just lunch-deficit-anxiety. I should stop typing and eat.

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 3-4 WAR is easier said than done!

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you’re too focused on payroll flexibility

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rather than a team that’s on the verge of divisional favorite status, with many key players near FA

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gimenez is a better fit than Lindor for these reasons for SOME teams

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t tink one of those teams are the Mets.

12:56
Lars Ulrich: Who is your favorite metal band of all time?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a metal guy

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You shoudl ask Maury Brown for recs!

12:56
Mike – Toronto: Any hope/confidence about Robbie Ray returning to form and throwing more strikes/less walks in 2021?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Moderate. He’s been really good in the past!

12:58
Guest: Does zips try to account for minor league rule changes?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

12:59
Justin: .270 with 27 hrs from Rowdy Tellez this season?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think I’d still take the under in the BA, but the HR is about right

12:59
LFC Mike: Your aged picture needs a tweed jacket with elbow pads and one of those old timey pipes…..like a literature professor at an expensive private college looks…

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nobody would believe me looking serious

1:00
Guest: What is your opinion on Jim Cornette?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Important figure, though I do think he’s a little close-minded on things that are out of his wheelhouse

1:00
brad penny for your thoughts: what if old dan becomes super popular after you’re dead?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, I won’t know abou tit

1:01
Moose_Bolton: Are you a coffee drinker? And if so, what sort of apparatus do you use to prepare it?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t really drink coffee unless I’m out somewhere and people are drinking coffee

1:01
Scott: Which historical baseball events, old or recent, should there be a movie about someday?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t know if it’s an EVENT

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I’d dig a psychological comedy about the year Scipio Spinks had his stuffed gorilla.

1:03
Appa Yip Yip: Your chats are the best because you’ll publish any rat brained nonsense that makes you giggle

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m into life for the lulz.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you can’t simultaneously be amused, bemused, and cemused about everything in life, then what’s the point of existence?

1:04
Travis: I’ve watched AEW for the last month, first time, and it’s giving me serious TNA vibes. I think wrestling’s just not for me anymore.

1:04
Guest: Gimenez put up 0.8 fWAR and 1.1 bWAR in 132 PA last year, with an OPS+ barely over 100. If his bat improves even a bit, and his defense and baserunning remain stable, 3 WAR over a full season doesn’t seem unreasonable.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced that he’s as good offensively as his 2020

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and 3-4 as an established baseline is possible, but I wouldn’t say it’s the average result!

1:05
Ump day: Since replay is used to get calls right, will we ever see a day where a team may get a set number of challenges on ball/strike calls?  Until we get robo-umps of course.

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I hope not

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The purpose of replay should be to get the calls right

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: not to have a weird hierarchy of flags and challenges and appeals

1:05
Appa Yip Yip: Why were you down on the Jays front office before? Did you not believe they would spend money?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t down on them

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But my esteem for them went up

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t sure if they would really push to support their core.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And they have

1:06
ACC: What is your opinion on Arozerena .. I know he isnt as good as October but you buying .270, 25 hr/20sb?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s basically his ZiPS projection over 600 PA

1:06
KB: Your taco WAR joke got me thinking… have you ever actually made a system like that for random stuff in your life besides baseball?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Projections? No. But I do lots of random spreadsheets and stuff

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:08
BringBackDeSpanielHair: WTF, you don’t drink coffee???? We’ll all pray for you. Even atheists should pray for people who don’t drink coffee.

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I work from home and I don’t wake up early. So what do I need the caffeine boost from?

1:08
Guest: WRT Gimenez, is ZiPS heavily influenced by 2019? It’s his only real high-level minors experience, and he was evidently playing through an injury (hand-related, I think) that year. I know that’s something you mentioned as a blind spot for ZiPS earlier.

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: True, but he also has to show he can do it in a full season

1:09
Montgomery: I think Montgomery might actually provide a lot of value for NYY this year. Is that crazy to think?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I picked him in my breakout piece!

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So if we’re crazy, we’re crazy-buddies.

1:09
Guest: I noticed in one of your articles about 10% vs. 90% projections, the defensive projection didn’t change. How does zips do defensive projections?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the percentiles, I keep the defense constant, because defense is basically as volatile for everyone

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I want to show the offensive variability

1:10
Motown Oden: Did you see the Posnanski tweet re: banning the shift? Asked  purely on which game you’d prefer to watch as a fan. While I strongly don’t think it should be legislated out, i’d like the “look” of the game without it.

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think baseball’s attacking the symptoms of the problem rather than the problem

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If baseball’s ball was deader, you’d have more guys with a skillset that wasn’t ripping and pulling

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and the shifting would take care of itself

1:11
MilwaukeeBeerJays: The thing is FF6 is still one of the best, but in FF7 you get to BREED GODDAMN RACING CHICKENS! Also the golden saucer (all the mini games), the materia system being more sophisticated than espers, makes for a better game.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually like the esper system better because you really have to balance long term “training” needs with short-term usage.

1:12
John: Adam wainwright has one more hit on fangraphs site than bbref.  Which means he is hitting .200 at fangraphs.  How do things like that happen?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t know. That’s unusaul

1:12
MilwaukeeBeerJays: FF6 wins for story and atmosphere however…and that musoc thing you said about the opera scene that i had to google….thanks DAN!

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What did I say about it?

1:13
I am the Walurus: Best prospects for a 30 hr’s this season—Riley or McMahon?

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: McMahon because he’s always going to be at Coors

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well,l at home

1:13
Pumpsie Green: Is Cleveland a top-flight CF away from going back to the WS? If so, who could that be as a trade target in July?

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I think they’re farther than that

1:13
BringBackDeSpanielHair: Egad, I just realized I sent a question with no name on it earlier!

Someone mentioned CJ Cron in CO the other day. At what point does a power bat not really see an advantage in Denver? Or is it a rising tide that floats all ships, or something like that?

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you can draw a universal line

1:14
Appa Yip Yip: Plus with the esper system sometimes you forget to change the esper after level up and then Saban ends up with ten million vigor

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s SABIN!

1:14
Appa Yip Yip: When I was a kid my friend lied to me and told me there was a way to resurrect general leo if you fought enough dinosaurs in the dinosaur forest and I fought a lot of dinosaurs

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ha! General Leo conspiracy theories were around for YEARS in the early internet days

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time fo me to head off for another week!

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming,e veryone!





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

3 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
dl80
3 years ago

Human names for cats are totally legit! We have a neighbor whose cat was named Kevin, and now we exclusively use people names for our cats.