Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/25/19

Dan Szymborski: Boomshakalakagravyfries

Andy: Which team needs Dan Strailly the most?

Dan Szymborski: Bowie Baysox?

Anonymous: Do you find yourself underreacting to small sample sizes?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

Iron Man: Is it worrisome that Keuchel hasn’t found a home yet?

Dan Szymborski: The missing element is the price.

Dan Szymborski: If he’s still looking for 5/130 or something along those lines, then no.

Dan Szymborski: If he’s plying his trades for 1/15 and nobody’s biting, maybe

Raymond: The team runs scored/runs allowed projections on the 2019 projected standings page seem really high (The Red Sox are projected to score over 6 a game). Is there a reason for this?

Dan Szymborski: Something *does* look goofy

Dan Szymborski: Not on my part, but it’s serious enough to page Dave/Sean about the issue.

Lilith: How excited are you to play in a standard format that doesn’t include odd and even decks? What do you think you’ll be playing day 1?

Dan Szymborski: Very.

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what cards are released.

Dan Szymborski: I tend to play a Control Priest or a Dragon Priest in new expansions.

Dan Szymborski: Though we’d need some dragons since we’re losing some serious ones.

Dan Szymborski: For example Primordial Drake and Bone Drake are *serious* lossesl\

LFC Mike: Dan, good opening week Monday morning. I am looking forward to hearing you too signed an extension keeping you at Fangraphs until 2039 or until you become Skyline Chili national spokesman.. which ever comes first.

Dan Szymborski: Keeping me locked up until age 61 is probably unnecessary

Dan Szymborski: god, i’m going to be 61 at some point

Matt: So the Mariners apparently announced that Kikuchi will be an opener. Randomly. And they won’t announce it. Well, I’d like their ownership to reimburse me partially for my fantasy buy-ins.

Dan Szymborski: You should know a part of fantasy is figuring out team-related shenanigans

Manly: Hey Dan. How much is defense weighted into WAR calculations? I was surprised to see Matt Chapman was #7 in WAR last year for hitters.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not “weighted,” runs are runs.

Dan Szymborski: Chapman ranks highly in WAR because there are a crapload of defensive runs that he saved

Dan Szymborski: Now, one can argue that the magnitude of runs in defensive measures ought to be lower because of the volatility and uncertainty

Dan Szymborski: but that’s a general thing, not a Chapman specific

CamdenWarehouse: Could the Orioles have made their opening day roster less interesting?

Dan Szymborski: Straily?

Dan Szymborski: Straily is like Andrew Cashner but someone was dumb enough to trade a top prospect for him

Chris Zaina: Good morning!
Who do you think has the better long term outlook, Bieber, Dereck Rodriguez or Jaime Barria.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to show some ZiPS loyalty and go with Bieber

Matt: Frankie Montas has had a phenomenal spring. BBRef says his opponent score is 8.3, so it’s not just AA hitters. You think there’s a possibility he’s going to show some of that upside he had as recently as 2 years ago?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. He’s always shown flashes of brilliance

Daro: Keuchel makes so much sense in Cinci. They have good offense and the rotation so many unknown.

Dan Szymborski: Sign me up before you go-go

Auto Zone Guy: I am actually surprised you knew what the gas cap was for. You are miles ahead of some guy named custelli or something like that who is a baseball writer or something of that nature.

Dan Szymborski: I assume that Carson’s cars are powered with poetry, avocados, and mustache wax.

Dan Szymborski: For those wondering, I mentioned on Twitter that I bought an OBD-II scanner so that the AutoZone guy wouldn’t know that I left the gas cap off

Dan Szymborski: It was the evaporative emissions code and I did clear the code and it did not come back on

Dan Szymborski: not do i have any pending codes

nico: Hey Dan, thanks for taking the time to chat. It feels like the Mets are under more pressure than ever to extend deGrom now that Syndergaard’s sounded off – just the same, there’s no indication that said extension is imminent. Do you have any sense of what the sticking point between talent and management could be on this one?

Dan Szymborski: I talked with Dave Studeman on Twitter about this last week and our working theory is that there’s a BVW situation resembling Smeagol/Gollum since he can’t sign deGrom despite being on both sides of the table

Dan Szymborski: The exact issue is too inside baseball for me. I have suspicions, but I hate reporting rumors.

Ray Kinsella: Best recent extension for the player?

Dan Szymborski: As these types of extensions go, Snell did better than most.

Dan Szymborski: Goldschmidt probably the best

Ray Kinsella: Best recent extension for the team (non-Trout division)?

Dan Szymborski: And of course, Trout

Dan Szymborski: Dammit

resumeman: When will the A’s and Mariners’ individual player pages get updated to include the Japan series stats?

Dan Szymborski: I actually did not know that they werent’

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been so busy LIVING in the depth chart area

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how Jeff managed to not open his veins in a warm bath at this time last year

kevin: why don’t teams give yearly arm/shoulder exams on pitchers? I read Girardi said that players only should undergo a limited # of me is a year but wouldn’t it be prudent to be aware of anything going on or is ignorance bliss?

Dan Szymborski: I’m no medical type, but I imagine that most pitchers, even healthy one, have some kind of minor damage to the arm

Dan Szymborski: and there’s a danger of overdiagnosis

Dan Szymborski: similar to thyroid cancer, in which there are a lot of indolent cases that are overtreated

Matt: Hellickson saw success last year by trading out his Cutter and Change for a curveball. Apparently he’s added a slider this spring. Any thoughts about him as a potential “rebound” type candidate?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly possible, ptichers are weird in a sense – they can turn things around very quickly

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d be more interested in Hellickson if I’m a team that isn’t contending

Donnie: What are your thoughts on Kike Hernandez this year now that he has a “starting role” at second?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be roughly average. I think his defense is still up in the air and he’ll probably hit worse overall than last year

Beamballz: From a few standpoint how

Dan Szymborski: few < many < crapload

CC: What do you think Colorado should do with all their 2B guys (mcmahon, hampson, rodgers)?

Dan Szymborski: I’d try to see which one of them works better in center (McMahon or Hampson), play the other at second, release Desmond, keep Rodgers at AAA for now with a view to possibly trading Story

romorr: So, Orioles sent Sisco down to AAA.  Not sure what the reason is, but whatever it is, I don’t care.  You think there is anything AAA can teach him that the ML club couldn’t?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of this move

Alcides Escobar: I am pleased to announce that upon rejection by the Orioles I have been named manager of the Skyline Chili restaurant that is the one closest to the Dan Szymborski household. This is going to be fun personally delivering our award winning chili to him everyday. My favorite chili has TONS of beans in it…the way chili is supposed to be.

Dan Szymborski: You’re in Chicago

Matt: Is Senzel a service time thing? I drafted him in fantasy, and need to decide whether I hang on for a few weeks or drop. Bench is only 3 deep.

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty certain it is

Dan Szymborski: And if it’s not, the Reds are dumber than I thought

Andrew: It’s very likely at this point that Pete Alonso makes the roster. Are you surprised? Or is this just BVW realizing that having that extra year on someone with Alonso’s profile isn’t THAT necessary?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t see a lot of upside from Alonso, just mostly have him league-average

Dan Szymborski: I think the NL East is tight enough that it’s worth not sweating a theoretical 7th season

Dan Szymborski: Ignoring morality issues, of course, it is the ruleset we live by and I hope the next CBA deals with it

Jeff: Think Alex Reyes is worth holding onto this year in hopes he eventually becomes a starter?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how bad your team is. If you’re contending now, I wouldn’t chase the hope, but if you’re not, the theoretical prospect is there

resumeman: Do you know of a place to directly get the specific “expected” StatCast stats (I mean x1B, xHR, etc, not xwOBA and such, I do know where to get that). Previously xStats.org hosted all that info, but as far as I know that won’t be updated for 2019′

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t make the zBABIP public, though I may at some point

LFC Mike : Please tell me the Rockies have a moment of clarity and let McMahon have the full time 2b job. He was just named Spring Training MVP for the Rockies so I am expecting him to be sent straight to single A ball in Maldovia for the next 3 years.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say I wouldn’t bet my life on the Rockeis being smart

Big Joe Mufferaw: If you could put a spell on MLB guaranteeing NO injuries this season, would you? Or do you prefer the randomness and drama injuries bring?

Dan Szymborski: Notice I call the Rockies dumb while being unable to spell “Rockies” correctly.

Dan Szymborski: Well, what are the consequences of casting this spell

Dan Szymborski: If I lose a year of my life or something by casting this spell, I want to talk with baseball and come to some kind of financial compensation agreement.

Dan Szymborski: BUt if there are no consequences, no amount of randomness or drama can justify not sparing players injury

Bleachers: ICE CREAM BREAKFAST *clap* *clap* *clapclapclap*

Dan Szymborski: I don’t particularly like ice cream.

zurzles: Can we expect much improvement for Pads pitchers due to what is presumably a massively improved IF defense?

Dan Szymborski: I think the defense will be excellent and you’ll see it in the raw stats

Beamballz: Do like Keller as a cheap option for dfs opening day

Dan Szymborski: If hs’e scheap

Marc: If people were complaining about this year’s offseason being boring I can’t wait until next offseason, where the lone free agent will inevitably be Keuchel after the 1 year deal he’ll eventually take

Dan Szymborski: There’s still some hope left!

Dan Szymborski: But Goldy, Verlander, Sale, Mikolas off the table is a bad start

Calvinball: You ever play D&D?

Dan Szymborski: When I was a teenager

Dan Szymborski: But most of my friends don’t do gaming stuff anymore

Dan Szymborski: They all have stuff like “families” and “responsibilities”

Dan Szymborski: An otherwise very nice youngish woman sarcastically refers to “Dan’s Fairy Princess Life”

mike sixel: The Twins look median at nearly every position ranking so far…..that seems to make it hard to improve, since they have few gaping holes. What would you have done differently this off season?

Dan Szymborski: I really think the Twins should have gone big and been involved in Harper/Machado

Art Moreno: Am I more of a bored sword swallower, or a sore sore wallower?

Dan Szymborski: Whichever one causes you to hilariously overrate Garret Anderson

Gaslamp Gary: Dan Straily to the Padres maybe?

Dan Szymborski: Blah

Guest: Dan! Whazzup! Tell me about messr Puig in that gorgeous ballpark. Drafted him as my OF2 in a ten teamer

Dan Szymborski: He does get some fantasy value

Loch Ness Monster: Hey, think you can lend a guy about $3.50?

Dan Szymborski: IN THIS HOUSE WE EARN OUR MONEY

Beamballz: Is my chat working

Dan Szymborski: It broken

brad nj: what do you think of Tyler Nevin?

Dan Szymborski: I think a lot depends on what position he eventually plays

Dan Szymborski: and it’s been disappointing that he hasn’t hit for more power than he has

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll maintain the BAs in teh high minors

Dan Szymborski: so that risks him being caught as a tweener, a player that can’t hit enough to play first or field enough to play third

Dan Szymborski: Also, it seems weird that the son of a major leaguer *isn’t* a Blue Jay

Andy: Which MLB team would benefit the most from possessing a real-life dragon at their spring training facility?

Dan Szymborski: The Angels because being eaten by a dragon is probably the only thing that will stop them from giving Pujols too much playing time

Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: Thoughts on Luis Castillo and his awful spring?

Dan Szymborski: March’

Dan Szymborski: I mostly care about spring when it comes to players trying new things or comebacks and injuries and the like

Hello: What would be a reasonable deGrom extension given what we’ve seen the last few weeks?

Dan Szymborski: It would be quite rich

Dan Szymborski: I’ll probably run something about this during a slow stretch in April

Al Gone Quinn: Don’t knock it. I just turned 59.

Dan Szymborski: I really like being alive and would like more of it.

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually quite troubled by eternal oblivion.

Dan Szymborski: I’m agnostic who would dearly like the afterlife stuff to actually be a thing

Hello: More at fault for the Mets not extending deGrom yet: BVW or Wilpons?

Dan Szymborski: I’d guess Wilpons more of a problem

Dan Szymborski: deGrom’s not taking a hometown discount

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think

Dan Szymborski: BVW always looks weird to me because I think of Bach works when I see it

Dan Szymborski: and he’s not Bach

Nate: Tyler Wade and his career 23 wRC+ is whining about being optioned. Can someone inform him of how precious roster spots are?

Dan Szymborski: OK, he hasn’t hit well in limited time in the majors

Dan Szymborski: but I can understand him being really frustrated

Dan Szymborski: because he did work hard to improve as an outfield option and it looked like he was going to make the roster and then teh Yankees swoop in and get Tauchman a few days before the season starts

Dan Szymborski: Dude’s 24 and saw his career have a setback. It’s gotta hurt and most of us don’t have our reactions to our career setbacks caught on film

Dan Szymborski: Just to probably say more than I should, about 18 months ago, a promotion at my job was in the works.

Dan Szymborski: BUt then my employer shifted priorities, I was put on the backburner, and my mentor left the company

Dan Szymborski: I was very down at the time and no doubt said a few expletives out loud. But no reporters were around to cover it

Slurve: Which outcomes of Spring Training battles most surprised you?  Two rooks in Atlanta rotation?

Dan Szymborski: If Atlanta, I’m surprised they demoted Winkler

Dan Szymborski: Captain Sisco to the minors surprised me

Dan Szymborski: As did the Marlins giving up on Straily

Dan Szymborski: Not that Straily’s good, but they never really cared about that before

Al Gone Quinn: Can I create a process named Team Related Shenanigans (TRS) and come as popular as Ron Shandler did with LIMA?

Dan Szymborski: Go for it

zurzles: you know what would’ve made the O’s opening day roster more interesting? sammy sosa

Dan Szymborski: If I’m the O’s, I’d reach otu to Barry Bonds

Dan Szymborski: The O’s are going to be a horrible team.

Dan Szymborski: Aren’t you curious how Barry Bonds would do in 2019?

Dan Szymborski: This is a team playing CHris Davis forever.

Say Cheese: Thoughts on Woodruff sticking in the rotation the entire season?  He finished last year strong, but can he start the entire year…

Dan Szymborski: I think the Brewers will try

BenM: When projecting, how do you account for Survivorship bias?

Dan Szymborski: In what aspect are you talking about?

Dan Szymborski: In terms of majors vs. minors, translations help

Dan Szymborski: and one method I’ve used in calculating translations is some interpolation

Dan Szymborski: Like we know pro palyers are the right end of the ability distribution

Dan Szymborski: We know there are x .300 hitters and x/y .280 hitters and x/yz .260 hitters and x/wyz .240 hitters

LFC Mike: Thoughts on Red Sox closer situation? Really going to committee or is that team speak until someone earns the position.

Dan Szymborski: I think that Barnes has the highest upside of being able to grab the spot at some point

James: Hey Dan,

Dan Szymborski: Yo

Gaslamp Gary: Should the Padres trade for Bieber or Clevinger?

Dan Szymborski: If the Indians are going to trade a pitcher, they’re going to trade one that helps resolve some financial concerns

Gaslamp Gary: Is Eric Hosmer due for one of his odd-year explosions? Can you explain such a trend?

Dan Szymborski: The Wile E. Coyote effect. He learns about gravity and then falls, but he forgets in time for the next segment

Matt: Is it fair to say that, due to their altitude, the Rockies, as a team, are under the least amount of pressure of any MLB team?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

CamdenWarehouse: I like the Marlins new young rotation. Is that crazy?

Dan Szymborski: In 2019, yes

Beamballz: 1st time entering chat do u play dfs?

Dan Szymborski: Not that much as I’m a much bigger fan of longer term plays

Dan Szymborski: I’m an over/under guy.

Chuncey Wiggins: On a scale of 0 – 10 how broken is the current Qualifying Offer system?

Dan Szymborski: 6

Matt: I have a draft tomorrow night. Can you make sure to have all projections updated tonight so I can rerun my ranking algorithm? Thanks, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: TELL TEAMS TO STOP DOING STUFF

Acunami: Nick Markakis. 🙁

Dan Szymborski: Did something happen? Or is this a general observation

Matt: Is there anything to this Tauchman guy, or is he a Hicks injury hedge? Has some seemingly interesting minor league history as a type of “hmm…this non-prospect is kinda interesting” guy.

Dan Szymborski: He’s interesting. Not good enough to be a hedge, but I’m a big fan of role players being *interesting* players.

Dan Szymborski: Like Voit was interesting. Sometime these guys work out

Slew : What sort of showers bring May flowers?

Dan Szymborski: Gentle ones. More severe rains can uproot the soil or something

kevinthecomic: Any idea if Sixto Sanchez actually has six toes?

Dan Szymborski: He likely has 10

GDUBSS: “Straily is like Andrew Cashner but someone was dumb enough to trade a top prospect for him.”  Don’t forget, Marlins also traded Chris Paddack for Andrew Cashner

Dan Szymborski: lol, I completely forgot that.

Dan Szymborski: So OK, yeah, Cashner and Straily are the same

O’s Nos: Is Straily the best guy who will be DFA’ed this week?

Dan Szymborski: No. I’d rather have Chasen Shreve

Thor: I’m kind of upset Duke won yesterday. You?

Dan Szymborski: I’m really disconnected from college basketball these days

jv: How should I make A’s possessive? A’s’? A’s? Just say Athletics’? There are no good options.

Dan Szymborski: Elephants’

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Thank you for adding Richard Lovelady to the depth chart so I can look at the Royals page and see two pitchers with a FIP/ERA projected below 4.00.  This rebuild is going great!

Dan Szymborski: They did show interest in him in the spring

Dan Szymborski: Both projection systems love Lovelady I believe

Anonymous: The notion that a good single-player mode like KaC’s Dungeon Run siphoned off players from the ladder is ridiculous.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, did blizzard say that?

Chorizo: Alonso start/keep NYM 1B job?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll keep it

Dallas in Minneapolis: This should’ve happened months ago

Dan Szymborski: It’s the 3/25/19 chat. It can only happen on 3/25/19

Dan Szymborski: maybe it should have happened 100 years ago, but there was no internet and I was not born yet and my grandfather was only 8

Dan Szymborski: and it’s not a preview of my 3/25/2119 chat because I will by dead

Dan Szymborski: be

Anonymous: Say something nice about Ketel Marte.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine in center

Chorizo: I walked 8.6 miles this morning. Will I lose weight if I do that every day?

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine you’d have to unless you’re finishing every walk with a celebratory cake

Bigfoot Erotica: Who would win a fist fight, Crazy Joe Gallo, the mobster, or Joey Gallo, the baseballer?

Dan Szymborski: I think the mobster would win

Clown Question: If you could play any position which would you play?

Dan Szymborski: 2B

Anonymous: does ‘Bo Bichette’ rhyme with ‘Boba Fett’ or ‘throw machete’?

Dan Szymborski: boba fett

Dan Szymborski: or I pronounced Dante Bichette’s name wrong for 30 years

Lori Loughlin: Paddack vs Strahm.  Who will have the bigger impact this year and who would you prefer as a keeper

Dan Szymborski: paddack easily. strahm’s interesting, but paddack has startential

Rog: What are the odds that Harper has less WAR this year than each of the Nat’s three outfielders?

Dan Szymborski: Probably under 10%

Trent: The article on the Goldschmidt extension mentioned running the deal through Fangraphs’ “contract estimator.”  Is that just shorthand for an ad hoc $/WAR analysis, adjusting for inflation etc., or is there an actual tool or program that you guys use to spit out the numbers?  And if the latter, any chance you’d like to make it public for us visitors to the site to play around with? (Please?)

Dan Szymborski: we have a *lot* of tools for various things, because sean dolinar is a frigging genius

Dan Szymborski: I don’t use the contract estimator though as I have zips for taht

Matt: Wait…the Thong Song guy plays for Baltimore?

Dan Szymborski: Sisqo wasn’t a captain

Trevor: ZIPS and Steamer hate Scooter Gennett so much that the Reds’ projected record improved by a game after his injury.  What sort of contract do you think he’ll end up with in free agency after this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be Cozartish, maybe a tad better

Ben: Bonds would be terrible in 2019; steroids don’t actually help you, right, so he’d be just as bad as any similarly aged player.

Dan Szymborski: Oh no, the Orioles might be terrible!

Matt: So let me get this straight: you endorse death by dragon for Pujols? That seems to violate the NAP

Dan Szymborski: I’m not in favor of dragons eating people, but I was asked what team would get a benefit from a dragon

Kevin Costner: If you were scouting my overall handsomeness in my prime would I be an 80?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure as a straight guy that I should be rating handsomeness for men

Dan Szymborski: except maybe Matt Bomer. Even I can tell he’s dreamy

AFAF: How does weed get to MA from CA?

Dan Szymborski: Plane? Car? UPS man ignorant of what’s inside the package?

Matt: Starting by accepting the baseline assumption that the introduction of legal gambling on sports can create potential problems…is the problem set that *may* come due to gambling really any more extensive than fantasy? I mean…especially with daily fantasy, haven’t we had legalized gambling for a few years now?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s really all that concerning as long as you keep players out of it

Jay: Paddack was actually traded for Fernando Rodney. Marlins traded Josh Naylor for Cashner. Not sure which is more embarrassing.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks. All those Marlins trades have kinda run together in my head

Kevin: Favorite joke in Homer at the Bat?

Dan Szymborski: “In fact, your right fielder has been dead for 130 years”

CamdenWarehouse: 9 miles? hell yes, I’m having cake

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t say cake.

Dan Szymborski: i said A cake

Dan Szymborski: you can eat cake

Dan Szymborski: but don’t eat A cake

Badeball: Any special unusual chili ingredients? I add cocoa powder and a couple splashes of bourbon

Dan Szymborski: meat

Dan Szymborski: chili peppers

Dan Szymborski: spices

Dan Szymborski: pot

CamdenWarehouse: cat update?

Dan Szymborski: I shooed Mercutio away because he was sitting on my lap but kneading his claws into my stomach

Dan Szymborski: I heard Cassiopeia chasing him upstairs about 15 minutes ago

Dan Szymborski: I gave galileo some sardines about 11:30, so he hasn’t come down asking for dinner yet

Al Gone Quinn: Joe Theisman’s father pronounced their last name as “Theezman” but in Theisman’s senior year at Notre Dame he told everyone the pronunciation was “Thighzman” which coincidentally rhymed with Heisman. Pronunciations can change from father to son.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even pronounce my last name the same as my mom does

Der-K: Will we see the annual ZiPS spreadsheet, beyond releasing projections to FG?
Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Bryan: Do you play strategy board games? It seems like this would be really up your alley with the other interests you have.

Dan Szymborski: Sadly been a long time

Archimedes: Do you think Niko Goodrum’s ancestors actually made good rum?

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully. I enjoy rum.

Matt: But if we have our cake, can we eat it too?

Dan Szymborski: I prefer to say eat your cake and have it too

Dan Szymborski: sicne you kinda have to have the cake before eating it

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Would you feed your cats Skyline chili if that was the only food available to them within some large, say, 50 mile radius?

Dan Szymborski: no, it has garlic, onions, and chocolate, all no-nos for cats

Alex: If your cats had favorite baseball teams, which teams would they be?

Dan Szymborski: Mariners

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head off for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, I’m a full-time employee of FanGraphs so you can now find pretty much all the stuff I do here at FanGraphs.

Dan Szymborski: Except for getting mad at stuff on Twitter, which I do in my free time.

Matt: Wouldn’t your cats prefer the Marlins?

Dan Szymborski: Marlins are pretty big. I’m sure Mariners can supply more portable fish