2019 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (No. 16-30)
We closed out the position players with right field this morning. Now we move to the pitching side, starting with bottom half (16-30) of the starting rotation rankings.
There are some easy similarities to be found between the clubs on this list. There are several that have one or two generic, No. 4 quality veteran arms without much raw stuff. The better clubs have a couple more No. 4 types beyond that, with either durability or track record as the concern, while the lower-ranked clubs have a bunch of lesser, unproven prospects and guys who should top out as sixth starters or long relievers.
One of the more interesting clubs is Toronto, which has two young starters who have shown No. 2 or 3 upside (Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez), three veterans with consistency or durability issues on one-year deals (Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard, Clay Buchholz), a couple of intriguing prospects who can contribute in some way this year (Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley, Trent Thornton), and a few depth guys. Cincinnati falls along the same lines, with Luis Castillo as the anchor and Anthony DeSclafani as the injured but talented second piece, then three veterans in walk years (Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark), and some post-hype prospects (Tyler Mahle, Cody Reed, Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Sims, Sal Romaro).
On the younger side, both the Padres and the Braves could have a full rotation of recently-graduated prospects, though the Braves probably won’t with Julio Teheran, Kevin Gausman, and Mike Foltynewicz likely taking up a couple of spots in the rotation while the kids fight it out for what is left. San Diego’s top five in projected innings were all prospects at this time last year except for Matt Strahm, who’d only lost his eligibility by a few innings. Behind them, the Pads have even more young arms coming, with Mackenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Anderson Espinoza, and Ryan Weathers all within a few years of possibly reaching their mid-rotation or higher potential.
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
Strahm was acquired at the 2017 deadline not the 2018 deadline.
thanks!
The one that really surprised me is the Braves. The projections aren’t buying any of their top 3 starters, which seems like a mistake. And if Soroka is healthy–a big if–they’ll probably be getting mid-rotation performance from him, maybe more.
I’m not that surprised by the Brewers being down there, since the rotation is going to be carried by 3 guys with almost no major league track record, and I am guessing the projection systems don’t know what to make of guys who pitched in Colorado Springs (none of us do, really). But I would expect them to beat that projection collectively as well. Maybe not enough to get off of this list altogether, but maybe more up around the Reds and Padres.
Two other things stand out on this list. First, the Angels and A’s could really, really use Dallas Keuchel. Most of these are bad teams with bad pitching staffs, but the Angels and A’s aren’t like that at all (the A’s could have used Gio Gonzalez, too).
The other thing is how many of these bad teams are going after veterans innings filler to try and round out the rotation. It is utterly depressing that teams like the Blue Jays, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, and to a lesser extent the Royals are running out recognizable names whose best days are behind them instead of finding out what a young guy can do. If I’m the White Sox, I’d rather see what a Rule 5 pick can do that Ervin freaking Santana. I can’t tell whether these teams don’t have guys who deserve a shot in their system, or whether some of them think that the benefit of winning one additional game is worth not finding out if their depth in the minor leagues can be depth in the major leagues.
Maybe there’s some equity in bad teams having mediocre starters? Keep most games interesting early at least, instead of the game being over by the 3rd inning when it’s 7-1?
i agree with the general point about sad veterans but i’m not sure ervin santana is the poster child for it; he’s pitched startlingly well the past few years right up until his finger fell off last year. that doesn’t seem like a bad gamble to see if he can get going again and be a deadline trade piece. which of course is probably the concept behind a lot of these signings, just that the odds of it actually being a productive strategy… vary.
There is value to mentorship with veteran pitchers sharing knowledge, pitches, and collective experience with younger pitchers. Sawchik wrote an article about “Pitch Lineage” that applies here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-power-of-pitch-lineage/.
There are countless anecdotal reports of players and teams improving or being motivated by a specific veteran player whether it’s his leadership, work ethic, preparation, knowledge, diet, etc.
Soft skills exist and have value, it’s just difficult to quantify and maybe more difficult to discern which veteran/s will “click” with the existing roster.
I don’t have any kind of hard data to back this up, but I kind of get the sense (re: your last point) that these sorts of things work themselves out – it’s a tried and true tactic for rebuilding teams to sign placeholder vets to one year deals to flip at the deadline if they’re any good, and if they suck, they just cut ties and move on to the youngsters.
Re: the Brewers – I don’t necessarily disagree with the notion that the starters are not going to put up eye popping WAR totals, but given how bullpen-forward Counsell has managed, where I think the team’s pitching WAR is ultimately going to show up is with the relievers (but, given how projection systems like Steamer have trouble with accurately projecting teams with strong bullpens, the projections may not show this).
I think Alex Anthopoulos agrees with you. every Tom, Dick and Harry has been telling him that he has to sign another starter but he appears to believe in this group. It is tough to decide who to ship out among Soroka, Toussaint, Wright, Wilson and my choice, Anderson. Anyone of these could be another Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields and it is tough to make that decision. The Braves are still going to be competitive this year and if even three of their excellent prospects hits then they will be very strong for years to come.
Yeah, this is the dilemma: No way you can get Corey Kluber without one of these guys, and you might need two. So do you just keep all of them, or try and figure out which one to trade? My instinct is to keep them; you’ve got some great building blocks with Acuna and Albies, so I’d let the kids grow up.
Of them, I think Soroka is going to be the best if he can ever get his shoulder stuff sorted out, but Anderson has the highest upside. I think it’s a fair guess that of Soroka, Wright, and Anderson you’ll probably get one top-shelf guy, one guy who busts entirely, and between the last guy, Wilson, and Wentz you’ll probably get another nice starter out of it. I’d definitely be willing to trade Gohara and Touissant, but unless you get a team that’s as high on Pache as Kiley and Eric are I don’t think you have a deal with those guys.
At least two and probably Riley. The Braves window is actually only beginning to open and has a good chance to be quite a bit longer than those of the Royals, Pirates and now the Indians. There is no reason to make a panicky move and threaten that.
the White Sox are gonna be giving significant innings in some capacity to Fulmer, Covey, and Banuelos, who are essentially all playing the role a Rule V pick would despite only Covey being an actual Rule V draftee. moreover, one of the spots occupied by Nova/Santana would be occupied by a young & very exciting pitcher if Kopech’s UCL hadn’t blown out.
Just for accuracy, Sonny Gray isn’t in a walk year, he signed an extension after the trade.
Also, the Brewers’ pitcher is Junior Guerra, not Javy Guerra
Something that escaped me earlier: Dan Straily being released by the Marlins. He’s not that good, but he’s probably better than the 5th guy in the rotation for about seven or eight of these teams.
Brewers gonna miss Derek Johnson as pitching coach so badly
gotta take the over on ATL right? surely at least one of their 34 top 100 arms breaks out.
“Nova is the adult in the room, but he can’t guarantee the place won’t get trashed every now and then.”