2019 Positional Power Rankings: Left Field
This morning, we considered the catcher position. This afternoon, the positional power rankings take us out to left field.
Has batted ball data and modern defensive positioning altered the defensive spectrum? It likely won’t surprise readers to learn that the average wRC+ by position starts with first base and right field, but it may be revelatory to learn that the gap between right and left field has been pretty wide. The last four years, the average right fielder has produced an average wRC+ 4.75 ticks higher than his counterpart in left. The offensive bar at third base has also been higher on average than in left field during the last four years.
Why? Perhaps improved defensive positioning on the infield has enabled more bat-centric players to play third base when, in years past, they’d be at first. Most hitters are right-handed, and increased focus on pulling the ball in the air could have quickly made defensive range in left field more important than it has been in the past. The average sprint speed among left fielders is now on par with that at shortstop. Is it a long term, tectonic shift that should impact things like prospect evaluation? It’s hard to say definitively at this point because so much about the game is changing and still has the potential to change. But it’s worth discussing — eventually. For now, here are our current left fielders.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Very cool Eric, thank you!
Just a nitpick on Guillermo Heredia (M’s fan who had to watch him) – he is really not that good at defense or baserunning. Really liked him nonetheless
First position for which the Orioles havent been last woot woot!
They were 29th for 3B.
Last year, I predicted that if Acuña was healthy, the Braves would get top-5 production at this position. He wasn’t, but they did anyway. This year, I predict that they will get top-1 production at this position. Soto is great, but Acuña is about to become a superstar.
Acuña’s breakout came after he demonstrated the ability to adjust his approach to major league hitting. He will need to show that he can continue to adjust as Major League pitching evolves their own tactics to get him out.
Very interesting in projecting Soto to be a 1-win improvement over Acuña(i gave Acuña .2 fWAR bump to match ABs with Soto). I would bet on Acuña with his better defense and baserunning along with his swing change (108 wRC+ before to a 156 wRC+ after). Interested to see this matchup between the two best very young LFs in baseball.
Acuna definitely looked like a different player once he implemented the stance/swing change. His swings seemed much more controlled once he did (perhaps reflected with his improved second half plate discipline: 10.9 BB% vs 22.1 K%) and yet still allowed him to get to most of his power. Really excited to see what he does over a full season with it in place, especially if those plate discipline improvements hold.
Another great writeup. I wish Eric would’ve given Kiley the review of Eddie Rosario. Kiley’s been Debbie Downer about Rosario since the early days. I’d like to hear what he says now about him (seriously).
I wonder if the entire Giants outfield will come up in last place
Baltimore will try, at least
Baltimore’s outfield isn’t *that* bad.
The Marlins and White Sox will have something to say about that.
They just signed Jiminez.
Okay, so they have one outfielder. That’s good for them!
For the Giants’ projection, Slater has already been optioned to the minors and Mac Williamson is likely to be the opening day starter and will probably get the majority of the playing time. Not sure why he’s not on the LF depth chart at all. Parra is going to be the starter in RF against righties, at least.
It is being widely reported that the White Sox are going to sign Jimenez to a 6 year contract with 2 option years which makes it likely he is on the opening day roster and plays the whole year with the big club.
They already optioned him though, why the change of heart?
As a Phillies fan I love both Hoskins and the fact that he isn’t on the LF depth chart anymore.
So around Domingo Santana and David Dahl, I think the reader still has a lot of optimism for getting good, solid production out of the position. But then we get to an aging Alex Gordon, and the total mess that follows, and you wonder why on earth someone didn’t try to trade *something* for one of the Padres’ corner outfielders.
How is Soto’s WAR that much higher than Acuna’s?
Because he’s projected for a 40-50 point OBP advantage (.395!) and an 20ish point wRC+ advantage.
I was wondering that, too. Both are not special defensively, but is Soto really THAT much better with a bat?
I guess we’ll see. The plate discipline is very evident. He’s got some work to do to live up to being projected as left field Joey Votto.
I’m a tad (maybe more than that) more bullish on Dahl. I really think he will clear 2 WAR, and probably pretty comfortably.
Interesting. I wonder who they have in RF for the Mets, then?
Nimmo I guess though he’ll actually play LF (with Conforto in RF), to start before moving to CF when Lowrie returns so McNeil can play LF.
“He hasn’t been on the disabled list since 2012, but Gardner….”
Ahem, excuse me, this is no longer the DL but now the IL. In other words, teams send their injured players to Illinois.
Im a little surprised to see how down on Justin Upton this is, but I suppose that is just what happens at 31 years old.
I’m rooting for Upton because (weirdly) he has such a clear path to being the all-time strikeout king. Just 5 more healthy years, and he could make it. He has a shot at top-10 all-time this year, if he’s healthy and depending on how much playing time Mark Reynolds and Granderson get.
looking forward to the rest of this series
Thanks for reminding me, that 2007 season from Granderson was so much fun. At least 23 homers, triples, doubles, stolen bases!
Setting the minimum PA at 150, Joey Gallo has the highest TTO% in MLB history. Which, wow. Only 11 players with more than 10 career PA have a higher TTO%. Notable names above him with fewer PA include Pete Rose Jr., Javier Guerra, and Dylan Cozens.
“Teoscar Hernandez is probably not THAT bad on defense.”
Oh… I don’t know about that…
I feel bad for Michael Hermosillo… how hard does it have to be on you to be the backup to the greatest player of this generation?