2019 Positional Power Rankings: Shortstop
After taking a look at center fielders and designated hitters yesterday, our positional power rankings continue with shortstop.
We’re in a golden era for shortstops. The late-1990s/early 2000s heyday of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada was not only pretty cool — at least before injuries and position changes broke up the band, and PED revelations retroactively dimmed our appreciation — but it ushered in an era of bigger, more powerful players at the position, and that trend has raised the bar for offensive production. Last year, shortstops hit a collective .259/.317/.416 for a 97 wRC+, five points higher than it had been in any other season since 2002 (as far back as our splits go), and trust me, it was worse than that previously, despite occasional concentrations of thumpers. In 2018, shortstops even outhit second basemen (93 wRC+) by a handy margin, something unseen within the narrow timeframe of our splits and constituting roughly a 10-point swing relative to the 2002-2017 period, in which second basemen outhit shortstops by a 95-89 margin according to wRC+.
It’s true that last year’s surge was helped by the inclusion of Manny Machado — who led all shortstops with a 141 wRC+, but has returned to third base as a Padre — and Javier Baez. But the top two hitters for the position from 2017, Zack Cozart (!) and Corey Seager, missed most of the season, with the former playing more third base than second base as well, and even Carlos Correa wasn’t really himself.
No, this is about the likes of Baez, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Didi Gregroius, and even Jose Peraza — all of them 28 or younger, all but Gregorius 25 or younger — breaking out while offsetting the declines of Elvis Andrus and Brandon Crawford, the position’s geezers. More than ever, shortstop is a young man’s position. In 2018, nobody older than 31 (Crawford, Alcides Escobar, Jordy Mercer) made even 150 plate appearances as a shortstop. That trio all played at least 100 games at short, the lowest total of over-30 shortstops to do so since the majors expanded to 30 teams in 1998. As recently as 2016, there were six such players, and in 2014, 10; for the 1998-2017 period, the average was 7.4.
We haven’t even talked about defense. Yes, these guys are selected primarily for their gloves and arms, but with the decreasing rates of balls in play brought about by increases in strikeouts and homers, teams can get away with a bit less leather all around the infield. Even with a bit of decline in that area according to UZR (all shortstops were a net 2.8 runs in 2018, down from 20.6 in 2017), shortstops combined for 90.4 WAR, an increase of 18.2 over 2017, and 9.7 more than in the second-best year within this range (2016). The best of the current shortstops are still in their primes, and younger models, such as Willy Adames, Adalberto Mondesi, and Amed Rosario, all of whom are entering their age-23 seasons, are staking their claims to full-time play. Fernando Tatis Jr., ranked third on our Top 100 Prospects list and a babe of just 20 years old, will be up sometime soon. For as much as the current game has on- and off-field issues that need addressing, we should still savor the chance to watch this concentration of talent.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Thank you Jay, very cool!
It’s pretty remarkable the spread in talent at this position. The Top 11 or so are just fantastic shortstops, and it would be 12 if Didi was healthy. But when Jose Frickin’ Peraza and his third-percentile-hard-hit-rate and substandard shortstop defense is #21, that’s how you know it’s bad. JT Riddle is projected for 490 PAs…and the Marlins aren’t even in the bottom 5!
I’m most interested in when Corey Seager gets back to improving. He substantially changed his approach and his walk rate in the first half of 2017 (his 1st half BB% in 2017 was 13.5%! Up from 8%ish in 2016). This was masked in his final 2017 line by the injury marred August and September.
Corey Seager as a 290/400/500 hitter instead of 310/375/480 is an absolute monster.
I think Correa goes HAM this season.
In my 70+ years of watching baseball nothing has shocked me more than Francisco Lindor turning into Ernie Banks with the bat all the while continuing to be Mark Belanger with the glove. When I was watching him play in the Eastern League the thought that he could hit 33 HR’s in 2017, which, at the time, seemed like an extreme outlier, then come back in 2018 and slam 38 had a 0.00000% of happening. I envisioned a Jose Iglesias type player, a superb defender with maybe 10-15 HR potential. Trout and Betts are great players but, because he plays the premier position in the game, Lindor might be as valuable as anybody.
How much would Lindor fetch on the open market? I think even at his worst, the skillset ages very well.
Is he a better player than Manny Machado? In every single way possible, and he doesn’t spike or trip players! That clown got $300M so let us begin the bidding at $35M per year. The Indians cannot possibly meet his price, they won’t even be able to afford his arb years, and will be forced to trade him.
I always saw Lindor as a Jeter-type hitter with better defense.
Jeter’s BA in the minors was about 30 points higher than Lindor’s. But their rates of doubles, tripes, homers, steals, walks, and K’s were all very similar. Based on the BA difference, I expected that Lindor wouldn’t quite reach Jeter’s level as a hitter. But that his defense would make up for any difference in offense.
Of course, they also both have a love/enthusiasm for the game that’s hard to match….
From my viewpoint, it was hard to look ahead and see anything close to Jeter’s offense. It was the size difference, Jeter is a big man, 6’3″, while Lindor’s physicality doesn’t even come close to comparing. He looked like any one of the smallish Latin shortstops with great skills but very little power. Aparicio, Carrasquel, Campaneris and Vizquel all come to mind quickly. The body just screamed that this was who he was and I don’t think too many ever envisioned this amazing power output.
Sure Jeter’s taller than Lindor, but they’re listed as the same weight. And is there really any relationship between height and hitting ability? What should matter (and what I saw) was a similarity between Jeter and Lindor’s minor league production (except for BA). Someone like José Iglesias – who you mentioned in your first comment – was a horrible hitter in the minors and nowhere near Lindor´s level.
Also, I really don’t understand your need to compare Lindor only to Latino shortstops, I picked Jeter as a comp based on production, without regard to ethnicity. Meanwhile, you’re comparing him to shortstops based on ethnicity, without regard to prodcution. That strikes me as a bit weird.
Not too often do I hear a Mark Belanger reference
TBH, the Mark Belanger comp is really unfair to Lindor. To give you an idea of how good he was:
-Ozzie Smith, widely considered the greatest defensive shortstop of all time, is credited for 375 Def in 10,700+ PAs (doesn’t correlate perfectly to innings, but gives you a sense of how much he played)
-Mark Belanger, nothing more than a footnote in history, is credited for 345 Def.
So, to review, Mark Belanger somehow managed to put up almost as much defensive value as Ozzie Smith, considered the greatest defensive shortstop of all time, in approximately 60% of the playing time.
I mean, at least comp poor Francisco Lindor to someone he has a fighting chance of approximating on D, like Omar Vizquel or Greg Gagne (even those are probably a stretch, but at least those guys were mortal).
As the old outlier here I am probably one of the few who watched the left side of the infield of the great Oriole teams of the late 60’s and early 70’s. The only way a ball got through the pair of Robinson and Belanger was in the air. if the ball bounced it was fielded.
Torres’ UZR in 21 games at shortstop doesn’t suggest anything, no matter what it is. At this point, scouting reports on his defense from the minors are far more relevant than a non-existent sample.
What are the odds Wander Franco gets a late season callup if the Rays are in contention?
Close to zero. The Rays are conservative with promotions, he was in rookie ball last year, and he’s not R5 eligible until Dec 2021. Depending on where he ends up at the end of this year, we might see him in early 2020 after the Rays finish up with his service-time manipulation. That’s probably the earliest we’d see him.
That said, I think we are in agreement (based on your comment) that Adames is not likely to be the long-term starter at shortstop unless he can dramatically improve his glove, bat, or both. And even if he does improve with the bat, he might wind up at 2nd or 3rd anyway.
Lack of love for Story. Why hes not #2 or 3 i dont know.
Because projection systems require more than one breakout year before believing that is your new standard of performance, and his 2017 was awful.
Sorry if this is dumb, but am I missing something? I don’t see the rankings at all, just the bar graph and what looks to be Jay’s intro about being a golden age of SS.
Very cool article Jay, what isn’t cool is that you had not rotten tomatoes theoretically thrown at you. Don’t waste good food!
Article – [Galvis] gives the Blue Jays the option of using Gurriel at multiple positions or serving as an insurance policy/defensive specialist.
Me – Wait, what? Gurriel the defensive specialist? Are we talking about the same player?
Article – [Gurriel’s] defense at shortstop was dreadful (-6.8 UZR and -9 DRS in 46 games)
Me – Ok so we are talking about the same guy here. But you just said!
TLDR Gurriel will not succeed at any special defense anytime soon.
i think maybe it was supposed to mean that galvis is the insurance/defensive specialist? the way it’s written is a little unclear, but that interpretation would actually make sense
The article that’s linked on “option” suggests that that’s what’s meant–Galvis is the insurance policy/defensive replacement.
A quick look at this article makes everyone who already has serious doubts about defensive metrics to throw up their hands and give up. There are so,so many instances in which the different methodologies seem to be at absolute opposite ends of the spectrum that no conclusions can be drawn from either. Everybody on this blog doesn’t need quantifiable information to know who can play defense and who can’t. Xander Bogaerts is as good an example as any. DRS had him rated among the worst defenders, at any position, last year but there isn’t a member of Red Sox Nation that would agree with that. A lot can be said for steady and consistent and he was that. He isn’t Simmons or Lindor but he isn’t late career Jeter either. It is these stark differences that cause me to doubt any defensive metrics whatsoever.
He was considered league-average by UZR, and his inside edge fielding %’s are right in the middle of the range. Looks to me like the problem is with DRS.
2017 DeJong offense with 2018 DeJong defense is a 5 fWAR player. Even if he just finds a happy median on both sides he should be close to 4 fWAR.