2019 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 1-15)
This morning, Dan Szymborski took us through the back end of the bullpen rankings. Now, we conclude the player rankings (a summary will run tomorrow) with the best bullpens in baseball.
“Relievers are volatile” is something that people say all the time. I happen to believe it is true, and here are two illustrations of how. First, Craig Kimbrel is not in these rankings because he has yet to sign. Below you will find the 15 best-projected bullpens. If Kimbrel were to sign with all but the Marlins or Royals on the list of the 15 worst-projected bullpens, they would appear on this list. Further, he would take any team covered below and put them in second place except for the Yankees, who would still be in first.
The second illustration has to do with the narrow band of reliever performances given the small sample they work under. If we were to consider a good but not great position player projected for three wins, and that player finished anywhere between two and four wins, we might not even notice. At any rate, we’d see that player as having come close to his projected result. If we were to take a good reliever, projected for one win, and that player finished between zero and two wins, that reliever was either really bad or one of the best relievers in the game. It makes breakouts a bit easier, but also takes presumably valuable relievers and makes them a lightning rod for fans. What I’m saying is, don’t get too worked up over these rankings. Look for the potential two-win relievers and dream on them. Bullpens already cause enough stress to fret too much over rankings.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Great post.
One interesting thing I noticed right off the bat is the shocking disparity in walk rate between the Yankees and the Astros top five or six relievers.
When you throw 100 mph, your walks go up.
Thank you Craig, very neat!
As Gorilla Monsoon used to say to Bobby Heenan; would you stop?
Remember when Janetty tried to dive through the barbershop window to escape?
What an act of cowardice!
Very near. And neatest is that the pirates bullpen and staff both are top ten. If they can hit just a little ….
The scary part is that I’d take the over on most of the Yanks pen, other than Britton who might just be a slightly above average reliever at this stage and Chapman (seems like a fair projection).
“Seranthony Dominguez is the most interesting name in the back of the pen. ”
True on multiple levels!
The gap between the Yankees and the Astros (#2) is as large as the gap between the Astros and the Indians (#15).
And I think we’ll see this year that the Yankees having so many great relievers makes all of them better because they’ll each have more time for rest. As we saw with the Astros last year, excellent starting pitchers means the relievers don’t have to shoulder as much of a burden. Well, since the Yankees bullpen is so stacked right out of the gate, we’ll see the arms remaining fresh throughout the year.
tldr; I think there’s exponential rather than linear value in having a great bullpen.
I think it goes beyond that even. Having so many guys with closer potential means they can always ride the hot hand and give whoever is performing best the most and highest leverage innings.
The projected K rates of the Yankees are shocking.
What if the Yankees sign Kimbrel?
Probably a hard salary cap in the next round of CBA negotiations.
While yes, that’s funny, there’s about $20M between the NYYs and the league’s highest payroll (BOS). They could quite well sign him and still only be #2.
I know bullpens can be hard to keep track of, but there a few things that need to be updated on the Indians:
1) Tyler Clippard is signed to a minor league contract. He’s out for a few weeks with an injury but the Indians will certainly give him a look when he comes back.
2) Danny Salazar was put on the 60 day DL. Given that, plus how long it’s been since he’s pitched, I seriously doubt he makes it to 30 innings out of the bullpen.
3) Nick Wittgren was one of the last relievers to get sent down. He’s likely to be the first called up when/if one of the other falters. He’s certainly way ahead of Ben Taylor in the pecking order.
Tendering Salazar was a bizarre move by the cost conscious Indians.
Well, he did put up 2.2 wins in 103 innings last year. Not tendering a guy like that for $4.5M is arguably even below Marlins-level miserliness.
In response to SadTrombone:
Salazar didn’t pitch at all last year. He missed the whole season. By the time he comes back, it will be nearly two years since he last pitched. No one has any idea what he will do once he comes back (if he comes back).
So that was two years ago? Well, no wonder he was so cheap.
Cheap is always a matter of perspective. On the Indian’s he’ll be the 7th best paid player, despite missing all of last year.
The projections have him at 0.8 WAR (0.1 in the bullpen, 0.7 as a starter). I suspect most 0.8 WAR players can be had for less than 4.5 million. And given his extended absence, he’s definitely a wild card.
Describing Salazar as a 0.8 win player misses the point. A team with this kind of quality and pitching, and this path to the postseason cares about quality over quantity.
Salazar is projected to be worth 0.8 wins..in 68 innings. How many pitchers get projected for nearly a win on a reliever workload?
Salazar is a lot more valuable than a theoretical 0.8 war starter over a full season: his innings should be high quality.
And a team like the Indians doesnt care about his value tomorrow. Or June 1st
If he could return from injury and even be like Julio Urias last year (who pitched more postseason innings than regular season innings), theres a good chance hes worth 4.5 million to a playoff team.
His contributions in April are not a concern.
Agreed 100%. Sure, he’s still under team control for next year as well. So maybe they tender him again next year and get something of value for a roughly $10 million, two-year investment. But it’s still a pretty expensive mystery box for a team that’s trading away healthy players in order to save money,
Teams have signed injured players to multi-year contracts before.
Some of those bets pay off, some don’t.
Betting on Salazar is a high risk high payoff play but not necessarily a total loss. He might still be back by midseason. And the bullpen could really use him, even if only for 30 innings.
If Leclerc does anything even close to what he was doing last year, the Rangers would be very wise to trade him. They don’t really have a window, now or in the future, but if they got some more assets with a 2021 timeline, they might have a shot at having one again. Leclerc is pretty much it in terms of bringing back any blue-chip prospects, unless they can stomach parting with Gallo (who is so much fun and has a stable enough profile that I might consider trying to hang onto him).
I’d bet the house on Lugo outpacing his projected war as a reliever as the Met plan to keep him in the pen all year(they should let him start), and with him throwing his absurd curve more than ever I expect him to be even better than last year. Wilson will always walk guys but getting away from Contreras’ horrid framing I think it’ll return to career levels. I thought getting Avilan on a minor league deal was a excellent move as a he dominates lefties and with Freeman, Soto and Harper in division he’ll be a key guy.
I’m the biggest Familia backer there is as he is irrationally hated by Mets fan base over blown saves that were on Murph and Duda, and though I preferred Robertson I think Familia will be his usual solid self
I gotta disagree on calling Gsellman solid last year as outside of April he was pretty mediocre with a underwhelming K rate and not a good walk rate either.
I really like the top five relievers and think this could be the Mets best bullpen since ‘06.
Barraclough has been pretty terrible at pitching this spring, although he’s still great at making fans develop sudden cravings for unhealthy pastry items.
If Doolittle does prove to be mortal early in the season, I don’t think it’ll take long for Lerner to fold on signing Kimbrel.
Given the premium that relievers get at the trade deadline, the Giants could probably make out with some good prospects.
Take away the single outliers at each end and there are barely 3 wins difference between the #2 bullpen and the #29 bullpen. It seems like one’s big money is better spent elsewhere.
Tell that to the Yankees. Assuming they make the playoffs, I think they’ll be happy with their investment.
The Yankees have the sort of bullpen you’d assemble in a video game and then feel like you’ve cheated