2019 Positional Power Rankings: First Base
Earlier today, Meg Rowley introduced this year’s positional power rankings. As a quick refresher, all 30 teams are ranked based on the projected WAR from our Depth Charts. Our staff then endeavors to provide you with some illuminating commentary to put those rankings in context. We begin this year’s series with first base.
A year ago, first base looked to be a deep position, with a familiar set of stars occupying the top tier of the rankings, impressive debutantes such as Cody Bellinger and Matt Olson entering their first full major league seasons, and some long-toiling veterans such as Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, and Eric Hosmer appearing to have finally figured out how to mash at the level expected for the position. As a group, first basemen had combined for a 117 wRC+ in 2017 (their highest mark since 2011) and 70.2 WAR (their highest mark since 2009).
Things didn’t go as planned for the position’s denizens in 2018. Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, and Joey Votto all got off to slow starts. Bellinger and Olson weren’t quite as impressive as they had been as rookies, with the former spending a lot of time in the outfield to boot. Hosmer, the recipient of the offseason’s biggest free agent contract, was a replacement level dud, and Alonso and Smoak both regressed. Joe Mauer faded after his best season since moving from catcher, Miguel Cabrera got hurt before he could rebound from a subpar 2017, and Chris Davis, who had been mediocre in 2017, turned in a season for the ages — but in the wrong way. And so on and so on. All told, first basemen’s production sank to a collective 108 wRC+ and 46.9 WAR in 2018, their lowest marks by either measure in our splits, which only go back to 2002 for such things. Collectively, their slugging percentage dropped from .487 to .438, and their on-base percentage from .347 to .333.
Though it was only by a single run, first baseman did have their best year with the mitt since 2002, just ahead of 2017 — a trend that hints at the possibility that as a group, they’re not being selected merely for their offensive potential anymore. That’s a corollary to the reality that offensive levels at other positions, particularly in the infield, have risen as teams take advantage of the reduction in the number of balls in play — and perhaps better positioning data — to squeeze better hitters into spots that were traditionally harder to play.
Then again, the offensive decline might just be cyclical, a reflection of the effects of aging upon a limited number of players who have made up the core at this position for years. Exactly half of the players who have produced at least 1.5 WAR in a season as first basemen in the last three years were over 30, which means that odds are, they’re on the decline. None of us are getting any younger, even the Vottos and Goldschmidts.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Inconsequential note for the author, the Mets AAA is in Syracuse now. So the part about Smith being in Vegas sounds a little more ominous than intended!
Tyler White was a 33rd round pick, about as far from a 1st round pick as you can get.
What’s really interesting about this list is how some of the biggest bad contract busts display: Baltimore, Chris Davis, 30th, Angels, Albert, 27th, Detroit, Cabrera, 24th, Padres, Hosmer, 16th.
But I was told that there was collusion among the owners to keep players underpaid.
I think the sentiment is that collusion has arisen as a response to these bad contracts, and whether you believe that or not, they certainly cannot be used to argue against collusion because of when they were awarded.
Not sure how the Astros’ Tyler White gets sold here as “former supplemental first rounder” who “flopped in his first extended action in 2016,” since a) he went in the 33rd round in 2013 and b) he won AL Player of the Week his first week in the majors.
Because he was a supplemental first round pick, and hit 217/286/378 at the MLB level in 2016?
Ah my bad, misread the draft position. But they were right on his 2016 flop.
Maybe he got confused with AJ Reed?
He was a 2nd round pick, not a supplemental first round pick, so he’d still be wrong, if a lot closer.
I get the Astro corner infield prospects confused sometime too, especially White and Reed
When did the AL decide to just punt on the position?
When they legalized the DH.
The last AL 1B to have a 5 WAR season was…Chris Davis in 2015. The NL has had 2-3 a year, among the usual suspects. It’s weird to have 0 viable MVP candidates playing 1B, but looking at the AL crew, I guess Olsen is the only guy you can squint and see that sort of performance from, if his defense stays and his hitting perks up a bit more. But as another commented mentioned, those long-term AL 1B contracts are just looking amazingly terrible at this stage (Pujols, Cabrera, Davis).
Seems like random distribution to me. As you said, it’s mostly the same guys putting up great (5+ win) seasons at 1B. Those guys are so few and far between that most of them popping up in the NL is akin to having 8 of 10 coin flips come up heads.
I don’t know for certain, but it seems like teams are keeping guys up at the higher spots on the defensive spectrum for longer. It’s when guys start slipping athletically that they start getting moved to 1st or DH. What this would mean, if true (and it may not be, I haven’t seen any full study of this) is that guys in their prime who would have been at 1st in earlier eras are now at 3rd or a corner outfield spot, and then when they decline, get moved to 1st or DH. This makes the 1st/DH slots look worse because in the past you would have gotten a prime slugger hanging out there, when now they’re somewhere else.
This makes the positional adjustment for 1st/DH kind of hard to interpret (as if it was ever easy to interpret!) because if you don’t have an endless supply of sluggers who can’t play anywhere else like in the good old days, is it really a position that you should devalue that much? I suppose there is a near-endless supply of 1-win guys, but not of 2-win-quality-starter types.
If there were a handful of dudes lying around who projected as above-average 1Bs, I bet a number of AL teams would be interested.
Per the above numbers, there are 7 such dudes in all of baseball, 1 of whom plays in the AL. 2 of the 7 appear on a downward trend (though one of them, Rizzo, I think there’s still reason for optimism), and one seems prone to chronic injuries. That leaves four dudes on the entire planet – Freeman, Goldschmidt, Hoskins, and Olson – who look like fairly safe bets for above-avg production at 1B. And even there, Goldschmidt’s age starts with a 3 and Freeman’s ends with a 9, so who knows?
It’s just brutally hard to be a really good player as a first baseman. Most guys even within the tiny subset of guys good enough to draw a paycheck to play baseball don’t hit well enough to be good there. Of that microscopically small subset who can hit well enough, most are also athletic enough to play a harder position (because, late 90s-early ’00s aside, you actually need to be a pretty good athlete to be a great hitter in the modern game).
I think you forgot about LUKE VOIT
Which, to me sort of says that the positional adjustment needs adjusted
Why? The positional adjustment corrects for the fact that 1B is pretty easy compared to the other positions. Just because there aren’t that many great hitters who can only play 1B doesn’t negate that anyone who can play another position can probably also play 1B.
The goal of positional adjustments isn’t to normalize WAR across all positions. It’s to normalize defensive value.
Also for context check out the 2B rankings (and for even more context, wait for all rankings to compare!). Only three guys project at 3 WAR or better at 2B, with another small handful projecting in the 2.4-2.8 range. This isn’t a crazy shallow position.
I’m not understanding why Kingery is showing as the 1B backup for the Phillies. It makes a ton more sense for Franco to be the backup at 1B (he’s played 400 innings there in the majors and minors, and his bat profiles as well) and Kingery to then get ABs at 3B.
Great stuff Jay. The Astros really should think about not playing Gurriel everyday, I think they’d be an even better team with White at first base, Brantley as the dh and Tucker in LF.
I really hope Alonso is on the Mets roster on opening day and the way Alonso is hitting, and with Mickey and Brodie talking about carrying the top 25 players I don’t see how they can rationalize sending Pete down for two weeks. Dom has looked good but he’s hit a bunch of singles and one long homer while Pete has been a monster.
Agreed. Been saying that for a while. Brantley also is the type of hitter who likes to analyze at bats, breakdown film, etc. I think he will take it to the next level as a DH
The Mets will keep Alonso down because they can and they want the extra year. No one can stop them as the CBA is currently.
70 PAs for Carlos Santana at first??? I’m taking the over on that. Way over….
Just to follow up…Santana has started 14 spring training games at first, to only 7 for Bauers (who’s logged 5 additional starts in the OF).
Judging by the Plain Dealer online reports today, Bauers could be headed for extended spring training to work on his mechanics. They need extra time to figure out Ramirez, Cargo, and Mercado. Plus Bauers has looked adequate in the OF so Santana is looking to be a full time 1B even if Bauers goes north.
Just a small nit to pick. Jose Martinez will not get a single PA at 1B for STL. If Goldschmidt and Carpenter are not available for any reason, Gyroko or Molina will be there. Martinez even gave away his 1B mitt.
2017 Brewers 1B: projected 15th, actual 10th
2018 Brewers 1B: projected 21st, actual 7th
It looks like Brewers 1B (Thames/Aguilar mostly) have helped Milwaukee exceed projections the last two years.
Projected 9th this year, which seems about right. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a Shaw/Hiura/Arcia/Moose infield later in the summer if Thames/Aguilar return to the pumpkins projected.
Chris Davis,the worst WAR per dollar value of ALL TIME!
Without a doubt.
Poor O’s fans.
Moreland will not have to face lefties this season and Pearce is very good against same while both provide above average defense. This is an almost ideal platoon situation and actually looks like a position of strength for the Red Sox, while providing solid bench support. I would go up to at least #12 before finding a situation that is better than this.
Who is your favorite? From best to worst, rank them (list currently in order of when I remembered them):
-Dan Vogelbach
-Dom Smith
-Garrett Cooper
-Peter O’Brien
-Ryan O’Hearn
-Hunter Dozier
-Jose Osuna
-Kevin Cron
-Tyler Austin
Here it goes:
1) Smith
2) O’Hearn
3) Kevin Cron
4) Vogelbach
5) Austin
6) Osuna
7) Cooper
8) O’Brien
9) Hunter Dozier
I forgot to put Christian Walker on the first list, but I’d put him below Cron/Vogelbach and above Austin. (He actually fits better with the theme of this list than Cron, who hasn’t hit the majors yet)
The Rockies are not dead last!
The opening Mariner’s stat (10 years since a 1 WAR player at 1B) is amazing.
With all the contenders who have terrible first base situations, Justin Smoak should hopefully find a new home soon enough and Rowdy can maybe given a real shot to see if he can make a good impression.
https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-explore-potential-of-Josh-Reddick-at-first-13695149.php
For whoever is in charge of the Astros playing time predictions (as Meg did ask for this): Josh Reddick needs to be projected for AB’s at first base for the Astros. I would take most of them from Gurriel and give his open AB’s in the outfield to Kyle Tucker. If Kyle Tucker only gets 140 AB’s for the Astros this year something went terribly wrong. Gurriel should also be projected for a handful more AB’s at 3rd and 2nd at the expense of the Bregman and Altuve.
Thanks for all the great work, love this series!
Carlos Santana is gonna be the primary 1B. Bauers is gonna play LF
Wow, the Mariners really have had that black of a black hole, huh? Wow.
Is there a recession at FG
EVERYTIME i click your page EVERYTIME you ask me if I want to be a member
NO
STOP ASKING
THE ANSWER IS NO
I DO NOT WANT TO GIVE YOU TWENTY $ A YEAR SORRY IF I AM CHEAP BUT FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THINGS SANE STOP ASKING
holy shit
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
It’s because you have an ad blocker running. I’m on a work computer so I get that too, but I just have to deal with it.
I’ll take the over on Muncy’s projected line. I get why the projection systems believe he’ll come back down to Earth, but I don’t- can’t – agree with them.
What is Bat?