2019 Positional Power Rankings: Catcher
After Craig Edwards and Rian Watt surveyed the current state of second and third basemen yesterday, our positional power rankings continue today with catcher.
The catching position hit an 11-year low in wRC+ (84) and also dipped below 50 WAR for the first time in that same span (49.9). Just two guys topped 4.0 WAR, and neither Yasmani Grandal (4.9) nor J.T. Realmuto (4.8) reached a full 5.0 wins. Compare that to just five years ago, when five guys had at least 5.0 WAR and two of them rounded to eight wins: Yan Gomes (5.3), Rene Rivera (5.3), Russell Martin (6.5), Buster Posey (7.8), and Jonathan Lucroy (8.1). Part of the issue is that teams are much more open to splitting the duties among multiple players, which makes it tougher for even the top end to generate big numbers. In 2014, there were 23 catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, but that figure dipped to just 15 a year ago.
The 2019 pool has already lost a stalwart with Salvador Perez needing Tommy John surgery, although he hasn’t topped 1.0 WAR since 2014 and has surpassed an 89 wRC+ just once in that same time frame (103 in 2017). The position is aging and hasn’t backfilled with prospects quickly enough to replace the old guard. Looking at those top performers from 2014, we see that they are all still playing but managed just a combined 6.9 (nice) WAR despite four of the five logging at least 350 plate appearances.
Do not fret, though, the backfill is on the way! Danny Jansen debuted last year but will play out his rookie season in 2019. Francisco Mejia has essentially had sips of coffee each of the last two years and still holds rookie eligibility. Meanwhile, 10 other catchers made it into our Top 100 Prospects list, including three in the Top 50: Keibert Ruiz for the Dodgers (15), Sean Murphy for the Athletics (35), and Joey Bart for the Giants (41).
Murphy could make a real impact in 2019 while Ruiz and Bart are long shots to arrive this year, but are slated to be factors in 2020. Will Smith, also for the Dodgers, and Andrew Knizner of the Cardinals were both given 2019 ETAs. The long-term future for catching is even brighter with William Contreras for the Braves (Willson’s brother), Ronaldo Hernandez for the Rays, Miguel Amaya for the Cubs, Daulton Varsho for the Diamondbacks, and Tyler Stephenson for the Nationals all a couple of years out.
For now, we’re left wondering if Buster Posey’s hip will allow him to make a full comeback, if youngsters Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras can get back on their pre-2018 ascent, and if Austin Barnes can deliver on 2017’s promise to carry the top end. The middle tier is filled with questions, as Arizona, Cleveland, Boston, and Colorado could see one of several options emerge as their top guy or could piecemeal an uninspiring group of 2-3 guys cobbling together 200-300 PA each. In the end, we all just want Willians Astudillo to get 400 PA somehow.
Very cool Paul, thank you!
Absolutely stunned that the Dodgers are in 3rd on this.
I would, as a Dodger fan, be very happy with this.
Does fWAR now include framing – because without it, it is very very agressive on a rebound from Barnes and Martin.
As of this morning (and this ranking!) it does!
That’s alot of regression predicted for the Bucs. I’m hoping they ended up alot closer to where they finished last year which was 2nd in catcher WAR in MLB. Hopefully Diaz gets healthy soon. I hope his “undisclosed virus” isn’t that serious but it has kept him out most of spring training.
Well Baltimore, you’ll always have 3rd base, at least…
I wanted the clean sweep. Damn you, Hunter Dozier.
They’re technically tied with 2 other teams, so even a sweep would need and asterisk.
Tyler Stephenson is on the Reds
Technically yes he is on the Reds. But maybe emotionally he’s on the Nationals’ level.
With the continued drop in stolen bases, I find it interesting how much arm strength is still notably important in catcher evaluations. I wonder if that will eventually grow out of the position as something terribly important, especially as framing data gets better.
Not that I think any random noodle arm should be behind the plate, but strong arms seem pretty silly given how much less the game steals bases anymore.
Or it could become MORE important as framing skills become more homogeneous thanks to better data, and another differentiator becomes necessary.
I don’t really see a necessary correlation between pitch framing and throwing, though.
Of course, if they start putting guys with random noodle arms back there, you can expect teams will start running more. It’s a dynamic system.
I was thinking that as I was typing, but SB really just seems to be dying faster and faster. Maybe your backup catcher stays with a cannon and the extended roster size means backup catchers matter more.
Kudos for not including TJ Rivera among the Mets’ options on this list!
Guys, not removing TJ Rivera from the Mets depth charts is all on me – give me a hard time when I miss something on the updates, not the other writers!
My apologies for being a repetitive buttface about this. I hope that he does find his way onto someone’s depth chart sometime soon!
There does seem to be a changing of the guard here, with old stalwarts like Posey, Molina, and McCann fading (or faded) and while guys like Grandal and Realmuto are good, they’re not on the same level as the peaks of the other three guys (especially Posey).
(I specifically question Posey’s projection, which has him putting up more defensive value next year than the last two combined.)
That said, I have really high hopes for some of the youngsters in the minors, specifically Sean Murphy, Keibert Ruiz, and Joey Bart. All three of them have potential superstar upside, and I’m excited to see what they bring as they develop.
Yeah I’ll take the under on that Posey projection for sure.
The Mets might carry both Mesoraco and d’Arnaud to start the year, and the catching was so bad after d’Arnaud went down for the year and Plawecki missed nearly two months with a broken hand as Lobaton and Nido were sinkholes offensively. Plawecki and Mesoraco were around league average hitters, but both were bad pitch framers. I probably would have kept Plawecki around as he’s been far more durable than d’Arnaud(who hasn’t been?), and traded Travis as Andy Martino reported that there was trade interest in Travis as well.
I think Nido with his excellent pitch framing should have a career as a backup catcher at least and maybe after having lasik surgery might hit a bit.
If Ramos can stay healthy and play 100+ games I think Mets catchers end up even better than where they’re projected.
What am I missing here? How does Realmuto have a higher Batting/Running/Fielding values, but a lower WAR than Grandal?
I think framing is reflected in the rankings, but not the tables?
I noticed Buster’s 2012 is now 10.4 WAR!! But also I couldn’t make the numbers add up, and I couldn’t find anything on the player page listing the framing runs.
I think that’s a pretty recent change. It was definitely different a year ago, at least. https://web.archive.org/web/20180617032734/https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9166&position=C
It’s a pretty recent change. In fact, the article announcing the change is right below this one.
Question – you have “Bat BsR Fld”, but is “Frame” its own column now that we just don’t see, or is it included in “Fld”?
Confused as to how a .237/.338/.357 batting line and average fielding and baserunning from Austin Barnes in 384 PA translates to 3.1 WAR
Pitch Framing
Also, maybe because replacement level for a catcher is terrible these days.
Prediction: Danny Jansen ends the season with a higher fWAR than Vladdy Jr. 4.5fWAR vs 3 fWAR.
It wouldn’t shock me. Nor would Jansen winning AL ROY.
Is there a position the Orioles won’t be last in?
The Orioles have some guys who can play the outfield. Other teams–like the Giants–do not.
So we’re saying that Adley projects as the Orioles top catcher?
Whew! The Orioles were 29th in the third base projections. Got me worried. Nice to see they’re back in 30th
Is there an explanation somewhere about how the individual numbers correspond to the overall? Cause I’m really having a hard time figuring out how Austin Barnes is a 3.1 WAR guy.
The Orioles have already avoided the clean sweep here, but have we ever had one happen? I seem to recall the Phillies finishing dead last in almost every position a couple years back.