Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/26/20

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here is Dan, with #PanicDoritos

12:03
Daniel: So, favorite and least favorite baseball movie?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Favorite: Sandlot

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: LEast: Field of Dreams. I find it treacly and overwrought.

12:04
LAXTONTO: Where, of all people, did a confernces select me to review a qualitative paper? I do heavy quant stuff all the time and I got stuck with this?!?!?!

12:04
LAXTONTO: How are you and the cats my friend?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: All alive, which is a good thing!

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Being alive is the best.

12:04
eloquentboot: Daniel, what are your tips for household budgeting? I’ve been led to believe that this is an area that you have expertise in, I’ll take my answer off air.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I basically know how much is in my checking account within the first digit or so

12:05
LAXTONTO: I miss baseball…..

12:05
LAXTONTO: Can you give me a good example of a Poisson distribution?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ha, you know you’re more qualified than I am for this question! Think of anything with a fixed time interval and a known probability. Preferably a low probability, something like traffic accidents in a specific stretch of highway over a year.

12:06
LAXTONTO: Have you considered that if you look at the mean time in a minor league level per prospect that you could then find if the timeframe has the properties of a Poisson distribution, which would then lead to the idea to find probablities of how rare a prospects success rate at a given level would be… just spitballing, but might have to play around with that saome

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do a diffrent approach.

12:07
JP: Question about 2021 ZiPS: how would a shortened season or (worst case) no season affect projections for next year?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have much of a basis to make such a change in projections!

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We’re in uncharted territory here.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The best thing to do, absent evidence to the contrary, is assume that everyone being off sorta evens out the layoff penalty. Even if we know it’s not true.

12:07
LAXTONTO: Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moon light?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you’re getting stir-crazy Ben.

12:08
LAXTONTO: How many statistical distributions can you name off the top of your head?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 20?

12:08
LAXTONTO: What do you expect to be the next area to see a significant leap in trying to model/analyze in baseball?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: think we’re still trying to figure out injuries

12:08
LAXTONTO: Favorite pre 2000s comedy?]

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Seinfeld

12:08
Javy: What’s a realistic expectation for Oscar Mercado this year as well as peak years? Would Starling Marte type numbers be something realistic to hope for?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Upside is realistic. On the average, I don’t think he’s that good.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: as in Marte good

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: not the generalized “not that good”

12:09
Ben’s Chili Bowl: Dan, I recently made chili and followed a recipe that called for 1/2 cup of chili powder per 3 lbs of meat.  I found the seasoning to be overwhelming.  What say you about the ideal ratio of seasoning to meat?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t use chili powder!

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You cook down chilis after reconstituting them!

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And one or two of those little cans of chipotle en adobo are amazing

12:10
LAXTONTO: I want Indian food… not sure where that craving came from

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, there’s a lot of good stuff

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was sad to see that Indian chef Floyd Cardoz, froM Top Chef Masters, passed away from COVID

12:11
Ben’s Chili Bowl: PS – As the seasoning was overwhelming, we were forced to cut it by adding beans, thus rendering the final product non-chili.

12:11
LAXTONTO: Do you ever do any modeling consulting outside of the realm of baseball?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I refuse non-baseball things.

12:11
Chris: If the season is cancelled and players get credit equal to their last year’s service time, which players will miss moving up on service time by the smallest amount?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hmm, an interesting question that might be worthy of reserach

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s an easy list of 2019-only service time

12:12
LAXTONTO: What is the hardest thing to example to people about simulations in general and ZIPS in particular?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That having no player with a mean projection of .300 is very, very different than projecting no player to actually hit .300

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: people DO NOT GET THAT

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: AT ALL

12:12
Jeff: How many stadiums do you think the owners get out of giving up that service time

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing – they do appear to be close to an agreement

12:13
Jeff: I believe there is a hero in all of us and really like that ZiPs really likes Abbott and Amaya from the Cubs’ system. Everyone says they have a bottom ten system, what makes a bottom ten system?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Lack of huge upside dudes

12:13
Jeff: do you read around other sports’ FA periods?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m always reading; I’m a chronic multitasker

12:13
sportznut: When might we expect the DMB projection disk?  Any idea?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: About the normal time! I would have aimed for an earlier date if I had known in November that this would happen!

12:14
Mac: If you were the Rays GM and the Rays gained inside information that this was the last year of MLB’s existence, how good of a team could you create by trading long-term value for current season wins? (For example, you have to either promote all of your noteworthy prospects to MLB or trade them to be of any use.) Assume a normal length schedule

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You could do pretty well

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Stuff like Wander Franco for Lance Lynn that you would NEVER do in real life would help the team

12:15
Wig: What guy has the most potential this year? Puk Howard Gore?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Puk’s the most likely to play

12:16
Fanti: Can ZIPS get corona?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Only its creator

12:16
Blue Morpho: How hard did you fight to deny Cistulli being back on the pages of FanGraphs?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I called 911, but they’re overbooked with emergencies

12:16
Grand Admiral Braun: Maybe a better question for Jay Jaffe, but do you feel that if a player was essentially one of the best 3 players in the sport for a half a decade, does it sound Hall of Fame-worthy? Seems like that could still encourage “large-Hall” thinking. Thinking about Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, etc.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you can argue that

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d probably have voted for both Dawson and Murphy. But I’m also more willing to vote on peak value than the vast majority of the voters today.

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: See Johan Santana.

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would have cast a vote for Santana.

12:17
Grand Admiral Braun: Any thoughts on The Mandalorian?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still on my to do list

12:18
Jeff: Will anyone stand

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t eaten THAT many doritos

12:18
Bigfoot Erotica: I don’t have a good feeling about real baseball this year, and I’m considering trying to run my fantasy league in OOTP. I and my fellow participants are a bunch of old luddites, so wondering if you have any tips or can direct me to some useful literature on an efficacious fantasy league sim.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Either OOTP or DMB are fine for those purposes.

12:18
LAXTONTO: Do you speak any other languages?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Spanish a bit. I can write German/French, but my speech is garbage fire

12:18
Pat’s Bat: Wouldn’t you just prorate whatever baseball we get in 2020 to a 162 gane season for calculating 2021 Zips?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably as I don’t have any better idea

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think fundamentally, a short season just makes the accuracy crappier and there’s not much to do about it

12:19
Matt Klentak: The wife in field of dreams makes it very tough to watch, everything else about the movie I liked

12:19
Pat’s Bat: Would MLB rather have a shorter 2020 season but squeeze in a full set of playoffs or shorten the playoffs and try to get in more regular season games?  Which would you rather see?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d probably prefer a shorter season, but baseball makes more money from playoffs so I imagine they’ll prioritize that

12:19
Insert Clever Name Here: Out of curiosity, when making the Yankees ZiPS projections, were you surprised with the prediction for Andujar?  I completely understand his defense was terrible and he had good batting luck according to his wOBA/xwOBA difference, but…still was surprised by the sub-1 WAR projection.  (Non-Yankees fan, just was recently going around the ZiPS projections to try to keep my sanity a bit.)

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d probably take the over, but not by a ton

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He is awful defensively in the field, probalby overachieved, and coming off a serious injury

12:20
LAXTONTO: Why is it that my grad students are having way more difficulties transitioning to online vs my undergrads?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THey’re watching more porn

12:20
Insert Clever Name Here: Re: Jeff, only the Real Slim Shady will stand.

12:21
LAXTONTO: For some reason I think “For the love of the Game” is a better movie than “Field of Dreams”… am I the only one on this?

12:21
LAXTONTO: Nap or quick cup of coffee to recharge? This stupid qual paper is putting me to sleep…

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nap

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t really like coffee

12:21
Voto for Soto 2020: What player’s ZiPS projection has shocked you the most, in a good or bad way?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Saving that one. As you can imagine, we’re shorter than normal on topics to write about!

12:22
Seeforman: Which classical music composer would you say is most similar to each of Trevor Bauer, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Mike Fiers

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s see, occasionally brilliant, inconsistent, and causing trouble in media: I’ll say Schumann for Bauer

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll say Mendelssohn for Trout. Almost boringly brilliant. Mendelssohn’s juvenile works are way more interesting than Mozart’s.

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Altuve: More power than you’d expect from his appearance and people ripping apart his work in hindsight.

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I don’t have a composer that cheated; I’m not sure how you cheat at composing)

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bruckner?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mike Fiers: Known for a couple OK things, kinda overrated. Maybe someone like Albinoni? Albinoni’s most known for something he didn’t actually write and Fiers is most known for a season he didn’t totally write; you can call the A’s defense the baseball Giazotto!

12:26
Insert Clever Name Here: Igor Stravinsky: “Good composers borrow, great composers steal.”

12:26
Pat’s Bat: 5 years of being one if the best?  Would that make Lincecum a Hall of Famer?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the shorter the career, the more brilliant the peak you have to have.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Murphy actually had a career outside of his peak and Dawson’s was better than Murphy’s

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Lincecum 2010-2011 had been on same level as 2008-2009, *maybe*

12:27
Jason: Please explain how anything about the new draft makes sense? Why does it need to drop all the way to 10 (possibly 5?!?) rounds? How does a maximum bonus for undrafted players of only $10K make sense?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We haven’t hit a final version yet, or did I miss something this morning?

12:28
Billy: how long til a coronavirus party in corona queens serving corona’s

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: <groan>

12:28
Pat’s Bat: Wouldn’t you just proratw

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but it’d be nice if I had ab etter idea

12:29
Billy: is there a record for double headers in a season?  Wondering if the shortened seasons ideas will set a new record

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The record is 40-something by the White Sox sometime in WWII

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: WWII was a big boom for doubleheaders

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was a better use of resources to have two games go on back-to-back

12:30
Matt Klentak: What holes are best covered by the shortened season? Has to be lack of pitching depth? I think the Phillies would be better positioned with less innings required than in a normal year

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, no inning counts. You can make relievers go longer too

12:31
EvilMario: Will a denser season with more double headers noticeably favor teams with deeper rotations/pens?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so

12:31
Pat’s Bat: Sorry I have huge hands ams I’m tyoing on a tiny phone

12:31
Jason:

Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft:

– A draft sometime in July
– Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5
– Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July ’21, 45% in July ’22

26 Mar 2020
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s quite different than 10K max bonus.

12:31
Insert Clever Name Here: From your recent colleague Kiley McDaniel: Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft: – A draft sometime in July – Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5 – Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July ’21, 45% in July ’22

12:31
Jason:

a maximum bonus for undrafted players has been discussed. Most discussed number for that is $10,000. Could push lots of high school talent to college, middle-tier college talent to return to school.
26 Mar 2020
12:31
Matt Klentak: Is there any version of the future where teams dont get screwed out of a year of service? Im pro player & believe they should get paid & service time count, but just wondering options owners & club have?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have to think there will be some compensation for teams like the Dodgers.

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because really, it would suck if they gave up Verdugo and Downs for nothing but a Betts QO comp pick.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And while the first concerns about covid-19 are the health of people, it would STILL suck if everything came up Red Sox and they ended up making one of the best trades in MLB history.

12:33
Matt Klentak: Yeah I could see compensation for teams losing guys after this season, similar to NFL compensation picks awarded for losing more FA than you gain

12:33
Insert Clever Name Here: Also, random thought, I’m now morbidly curious to know how badly an entire team of Tim Tebow and Sandy Baez (worst projected pitcher) clones would be projected to do over the course of an entire season, with Tebow projected at every single position instead of just in left field.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably 20-30 wins or so

12:33
Grand Admiral Braun: On Field of Dreams: any explanation of why Shoeless Joe bats right-handed? Total oversight by Costner and the director? Intentional? OR…Liotta couldn’t fake it…

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Usually, those kinds of changes are actor based.

12:34
LAXTONTO: Could you use a NN to try and build a prorated season adjustment value as a multiplier for each player?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’m following what my training set is. We’re in uncharted waters, again.

12:34
Blue Morpho: I didn’t realize you needed professional head shots done to be a prospect analyst.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can never hurt.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Problem for me is I’d need a whole team of photographers to make me look passable, so it’s not worth the expense

12:35
Jeff: Do you check out FA and reactions in other sports? I’m never not floored at how well managed the fans of NFL teams are, their one obsession is price and making sure those boys don’t get too much and impact The Futuee to an extent MLB owners might be dreaming of right now

12:35
Mountie Votto: Any predictions on how guys with opt-outs will lean? I’m thinking a guy like Nick Castellanos who has yet to play with his new team but also has a pretty solid contract in place with another opt-out.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine that anyone exercises an opt-out right now.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s too much uncertainty about MLB’s fiscal position.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What if the economy does not V or U rebound and people get used to not watching sports? There’s no law of nature that requires $/win estimates to go only up.

12:37
sportznut: Do you think with the season in limbo, that’s why we’re seeing guys like Thor, JV, Sale, etc, going under the knife right away?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, because if you needed TJ surgery, you weren’t going to be pitching in 2020 no matter what. Sooner is always better.

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It would be different for more minor surgeries that are elective

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: which may be JV’s category

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, not so much elective

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but certainly less severe

12:38
sportznut: They’re not really going to be playing baseball in December, are they?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They very well could. There are a lot of southern cities.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In Miami, the average January day is 76/60.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d rather play baseball in Miami in January than most cities in July!

12:39
Insert Clever Name Here: Also worth pointing out that everyone signed their picks in the first few rounds in 2019, so assuming the recent draft news ends up occurring, we don’t get to see how a team would have responded if they had gotten a compensation pick for failing to sign their pick.

12:39
LAXTONTO: Use truncated random samples of other season and then x years of the previous stats and use that as a training set… its not the best, but its also not the worst approach. Probably still better than just prorating though

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS wouldn’t naturally prorate though – it’d prorate the projections already made themselves.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But for 2021, it’ll automatically weigh 2020 less and not use prorated stats

12:40
WeeJee: How long until it’s politically correct for Weird Al Yankovic to release a new song titled “My Corona” (a parody of “My Sharona)?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He already said he wasn’t going to

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And he’s already done one parody with it

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My Bologna

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:41
Jason:

This is base opportunism on the part of MLB. These measures bear no reasonable connection to the crisis or the financial state of the teams. It does, however, carry out efforts to smash spending on amateur talent MLB has been advancing for years. twitter.com/kileymcd/statu…
26 Mar 2020
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One thing MLB and the MLBPA can always agree on is taking money away from amateur signees.

12:41
Matt Klentak: the parody is “nine coronas”

12:42
LAXTONTO: What Matters Most: Identification of Contextual Factors of Faculty Organization  …..Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Assign each of your faculty members as a Dorito flavor

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: fuzzy clustering if you want

12:42
sportznut: The draft is always a crapshoot, and the cheapest way for teams to add talent.  I don’t see the benefit of delaying it, or canceling it altogether.

12:42
Matt Klentak: I think the guys who are still rookie eligible but have used “more than half” of their rookie eligibility will get screwed out of thier “rookie season” if they just add 2019’s service time. Maybe they will put a clause that you cant exceed your rookie eligibility in this added service time

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It seems to be.

12:42
LAXTONTO: but I only like one dorritos flavor.. so that means I hate everyone else?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Possibly. You should be more Doritobjective.

12:43
Jeff: A draft plan that feeds the NCAA talent as they prep to renegotiation media rights or a cable deal within 3 years? Color me shocked

12:43
sportznut: Sure, but some guys will try to rehab before surgery when TJ appears to be the only solution.

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eh, in these cases, I believe TJ surgery was storngly recommended.

12:43
Insert Clever Name Here: Not sure if you’ve seen this, btw, but this classical music mashup is gold: .  Also, what if you hate all Dorito flavors period?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not actually

12:44
Matt Klentak:

12:44
Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Even though the 3 year average #’s don’t bare out the fact that Chavez Ravine is more unfavorable to RH hitters than Fenway, what is your opinion from a greater than 3 year data standpoint? More favorable for RHB CR or Fenway?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s not enough of a difference to worry about

12:45
Matt Klentak: Can you put up a poll to see how many people in this chat are working from home or in their offices?

12:47
LAXTONTO: Is it sad to say I am considering using a background image of purgatory for my next zoom meeting?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

Where Are You Working From

Home (66.6% | 16 votes)
 
Office (16.6% | 4 votes)
 
Car (0% | 0 votes)
 
Bunker (0% | 0 votes)
 
Stromberg’s Undersea Fortress (8.3% | 2 votes)
 
I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT MONTH IT IS ANYM0R3 (8.3% | 2 votes)
 

Total Votes: 24
12:48
LAXTONTO: Have you ever taken the NPI (Naracistic Personality Inv)? I have a interesting hypothesis on how quant professionals peg certain areas driven by their cognitive need to solve problems.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not taken it.

12:49
Billy Beane: I don’t know if you are aware, but Ben Clemens is going around not just advocating for bean stew but calling it chili/

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ILL GET HIM

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll take it right now since everything is super slow here

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:53
sportznut: I’m an electrician.  We got shut down last week.  I’m home, but not working (obviously).

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I guess you can’t really work remotely.

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Uh, yeah, OK, turn off the circuit breaker. Next, we’ll rewire your kitchen over skype!”

12:53
Quick question: Hey Dan, which scorecard do you like to use for MLB games (if you’re into that kind of thing)?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not a scorecard guy.

12:54
LAXTONTO: For those interested… https://openpsychometrics.org/tests/NPI/

12:54
Matt Klentak: My phone battery sucks

12:54
LAXTONTO: Well once you have gone Cool Ranch, there aint no going back

12:54
Mike: In years past we’ve seen some free agents who sign late struggle for the remainder of the year. Is that likely to occur when every player starts his season late this year? Any way of knowing which players are most likely to be affected?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure; there doesn’t appear, at least on its face, to be any real pattern on types of player

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and in that case, they were coming back to leagues where everyone was playing. This time, everyone’s in the same boat

12:55
LAXTONTO: My home is my office…

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean your workplace

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 95 readers! I hope you guys still come a lot so that there’s a site to come back to!

12:55
Dbo: I LOST TRACK OF TIME AGAIN!

12:55
Yanks fan: Currently watching game 4 of the 2001 WS because no Opening Day–Ronan Tynan singing “God Bless America” is absolutely slaying. I miss baseball :/

12:55
Matt Klentak: What was more unlikely, baseball stopping mid spring training for a world wide pandemic or Khris Davis hitting .247 for 4 seasons in a row, over 2100 plate appearances ?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably the pandemic

12:56
LAXTONTO: Have you ever used SAS Simulation Studio? Great for teaching/visualizing simulations

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not

12:57
trb: Will you make available a link to ZiPS splits file for use by Diamondmind Baseball?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup

12:57
LAXTONTO: yep… and 0 on Vanity, high on the standard driven problem solving section… seems that this follows with my thinking. Quants score high on Self Sufficiency, Authority and Explotiveness and have little concenr for vanity or entitment.. This is differnt than those that fall into the Truly Narcissistic psychopath ranges that need Vanity, Entitlement or Exhibitionist areas to thrive.

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have kind of an odd family

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In my family, it wasn’t success that was valued. Or money or fame or job title or even happiness or empathy.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My family, every member, has been raised with an almost slavish obsession to knowledge and *being right*. There’s no higher accomplishment in my family is being right about something and someone else having to admit they’re wrong to everyone.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My grandfather literally voted for the candidate in every election that he thought was smarter.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My mom, in an equally odd, but different, voting pattern, votes for the winner, like it’s a quiz question

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not a lot of people were Nixon/Carter/Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama voters. 2016 was her first mistake.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe she’s 100% in senators and house representatives too.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know she’s 100% in governors

1:00
sportznut: Have you released the spreadsheet yet with player’s defensive range and ratings?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not

1:00
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: I had a cold can of this for breakfast while working from home.  Satisfied my craving for both chili and a starch.  Brilliant.

https://www.campbells.com/campbell-soup/chunky/chili-mac-beans-macaron…

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BUT WHY BEANS

1:01
LAXTONTO: That is the definition of a driven quant.. the internal motivation of being right or solving the problem is the true driving factor, the rest are jsut perks along the way

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was surprised to rank as highly as it did on the authoritarian category

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to RULE people. Just…errr…tell them they’re dumb.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: God that sounds awful

1:01
Dbo: I took the certified beer server exam this weekend and failed, I had years of practice and thought I would pass

1:01
Dbo: You ate cold chili mac? Hope everything is alright in your world?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, you’re still allowed to use kitchen equipment

1:02
Dbo: Why are we talking about Poisson distributions? Bernoulli distributions are where its at

1:02
Gregg: Will the new Minor League advocacy group have any impact?  Without any formal powers a la a union, I’m not sure what they can realistically hope to accomplish.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Groups only have the power that they can demand through their leverage.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They have no leverage.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On the contrary, MLB would *love* if minor leaguers went on strike and they weaker financial MILB teams just faded from existence, saving MLB the trouble of doing it themselves.

1:03
Matt Klentak: I took the test and got a score of 15. “not great, not terrible”

1:03
Dbo: Are you going to buy Doom Eternal?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really my genre anymore

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My last Doom was the original Doom. I enjoyed it, but 25 years later, I’m just not as interested in killing monsters/demons

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do in Borderlands games, but those games are legitimately amusing in their own way

1:04
Dbo: When are you going to release your ball park food rankings?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I never thought I was doing one!

1:04
Matt Klentak: Original DOOM was incredible for early pc games

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I played a boatload of Quake

1:05
Matt Klentak: Have you seen the Chernobyl mini series from HBO?, easy 6 episodes these days

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On my to watch list

1:05
LAXTONTO: I scored a 24, but then again i know how the survey design works so I am skewed on it… but most quants I know are well about the national average of 15 and most often in the 18-28 range

1:05
Dbo: I will donate $20 to the Human Fund if you begin adding beans to your chili

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll donate $20 just to not ruin chili

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BUT A REAL CHARITY

1:06
eloquentboot: I’m pretty confident that you’re being dishonest about you’re household budgeting expertise. I was alerted of this skill by top men.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: PORKINS IS DEAD

1:06
Billy Beane: Dan, have you watched the Tiger King yet? If not, go watch it immediately. Quit your job if you have to. It is the most absurd thing anyone has ever seen.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit distracted – my sister works in a hospital and has now been exposed to COVID-19

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: She has a 10 month old at home

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So I’m mostly playing games instead of watching things because I can get more engrossed

1:07
Mountie Votto: How many questions in the queue today? Have you seen participation drop a ton since COVID canceled all the good things?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Very slow. About a third of normal chat size

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So I hope you guys come back and read all the articles that go up! As with any company tied to sports, this is a rough patch for us

1:08
Dbo: Sorry to hear about your sister Dan, from my understanding infants and those not in the high risk population are usually fine

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not so worried about my nephew, but my sister has asthma and isn’t always the healthiest

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The swine flu knocked the shit out my sister and I in 2009 — we both had fevers for literally weeks. So with excessive immune response being what’s killing off the (fewer) younger people who get COVID-19, I’m a bit worried.

1:09
Derek: Hi Dan! During one of your chats the possibility of a FanGraphs Discord server was discussed… Any chance of that happening? Now seems like a great time for it!

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s nearly a 100% chance of this happening, for reasons I can’t go into quite yet!

1:10
Matt Klentak: Sorry to hear Dan, hope everything works out, obviously. What games have you jumped into then?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MLB the Show, naturally. Call of Duty Warzone, Anno 18whatever, and since it just came out for the PC, Legend of Heroes: Trailos of Cold Steel III

1:10
Matt Klentak: I will read every fangraphs article even ones normally Id never read, cant lose the best baseball site on the internet

1:10
Billy Beane: Hey man, hope your sister is all right. These chats and whatnot are fun and games, but I appreciate your sister’s work in keeping people healthy

1:10
Dbo: If a sandwich must be between 2 slices of bread, then how does a 3rd slice of bread affect this like in a club sandwich or a dagwood?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It becomes a 1.5wich

1:11
Derek: On the topic of supporting FanGraphs – I would suggest to everyone in this chat to sign up for a FanGraphs membership (means permitting, of course). Mine just renewed today and it’s a great way to support the site, plus getting rid of ads (especially on mobile) is super great.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Obviously, we wouldn’t want anyone to join that can’t afford it otherwise!

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Getting rid of the ads is definitely a nice perk.

1:11
Guest: Hey Dan, can you evaluate the luck of Alex Reyes?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Poor 🙂

1:11
Nick: As I “work from home,” should I reactivate my WoW account or keep playing Civilization VI?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:12
Gregg: “MLB would *love* if minor leaguers went on strike and the[] weaker financial MILB teams just faded from existence, saving MLB the trouble of doing it themselves.”  Isn’t COVID going to take care of that for MLB already?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Possibly

1:12
Dbo: I must say that these chats are a nice distraction from quarantine

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to shuffle off for another week.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: See you guys this time next week! And sooner than then, possibly…for something…

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/26/20 by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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