Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/4/19
12:01 |
: Favorite John Candy movie…GO!
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12:01 |
: P, T, A. Though I have a soft spot for Harry Crumb
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12:02 |
: Hanley have anything left in the tank?
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12:02 |
: No.
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12:02 |
: Where are some good fits for Dallas Kuechel?
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12:02 |
: LIkely writing something about this!
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12:02 |
: With Sal Perez out, should the Royals (1) play their marginal catching prospects, (2) sign Maldanado, or (3) wait for a minor trade or waiver claim for someone’s third catcher who will not make the big team at the end of spring training?
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12:02 |
: They should 1, they’ll probably 2
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12:02 |
: Some of the projections (especially projected WAR) look very different when comparing ZiPS articles and the Projections download. Do you have any intuitions as to why this might be?
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12:03 |
: I don’t use the pure FIP WAR, I include projected LI in my projections, and I do some other things differently (DH set as 1B replacement because of strong evidence of DH hurting offensive performance to a degree)
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12:03 |
: Tell more stories
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12:03 |
: I would think you guys got your fill last week!
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12:03 |
: A good frozen Monday morning Dan. 2 months since your Braves Zips. Any changes on your thoughts on Ozzie Albies or Touki? The 2H performance from Albies seems to be dominating peoples minds. Learning curve up?
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12:03 |
: Well, it’s not changing the ZiPS! Though I really like both
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12:03 |
: Assuming the Rays move at the end of their lease, where do they go?
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12:04 |
: Nowhere. Baseball wants to keep teams for extortion candidates
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12:04 |
: Bold predictions for where Kimbrel ends up? Any chance of SD reunion?
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12:04 |
: Dammit, I’m doing a piece on this!
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12:05 |
: Do you believe the decision of the United States Congress to fail to ratify the Treaty of Versailles over the League of Nations was a result of knee-jerk partisan opposition to Wilson’s dickish sermonizing approach, or a genuine concern over turning over too much sovereignty in foreign affairs to a Allied-led Europe that appeared to have learned nothing over the previous 4 years of war?
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12:05 |
: I’d say parts of both.
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12:06 |
: Even after entering WWI, there still wasn’t a “great” reason for the US to be involved in WWI. Unlike WWII, this was a war that was largely European diplomatic tangles. I *still* don’t see a compelling reason for us to have been involved. So there wasn’t the stomach on a lot of people for getting involved any more than needed.
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12:06 |
: Any reason besides the dumb service time clock that Chris Paddack wouldn’t be the Padres Opening Day starter?
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12:07 |
: Well, Lucchesi is the best starter on the team *at this moment*
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12:08 |
: Hopefully they won’t try to game Super Two. The Padres are a highly interesting wild card team if they hit their flush on a couple of starting pitchers this year, so the more starts they have from those guys that could actually do that, the better
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12:08 |
: Kershaw seems to have a shoulder issue – assuming he won’t make it how much does it hurt the Dodgers’ chances this year? Still NL West favorites by far though right?
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12:08 |
: I think the Dodgers are the clear favorite if Kershaw retires to become a Frangelico salesman.
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12:08 |
: Is there concern with ATL going into the season, not doing enough to improve the team? FG projects Braves to finish 4th in the East. Donaldson keeps getting held back. Swanson’s wrist still hurts. Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Minter, Gohara all have sore shoulders/elbows. Ugh.
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12:08 |
: THe injuries are concerning. They’ve had more than their fair share
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12:08 |
: Who will be labeled “in the best shape of their lives” in spring training that will absolutely not live up to it?
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12:09 |
: 95% of players
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12:09 |
: Can’t teams manipulate service time even if they allow the player to make the Opening Day roster? Like, send them to the “IL” for “reasons”?
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12:09 |
: As long as it’s more than 20 days on optional assignment, yes
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12:09 |
: Do expected statistics take into account the speed of a player? If not, how do you think this can be incorporated?
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12:09 |
: ZiPS does.
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12:09 |
: I am not trying to knock Vlad Jr in any way. Just curious. Why is he the #1 overall prospect when he clearly is lacking in defense and speed? I get #1 overall hitter, absolutely, but shouldn’t the #1 overall spot go to a 5-tool kinda guy? Like Tatis, Robles or Lewis?
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12:10 |
: Well, the tools aren’t created equal.
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12:10 |
: Be honest: who was your pre-offseason pick for last free agent to sign major league deal?
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12:10 |
: Moustakas
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12:11 |
: Thoughts on Kingery? That contract due to defense, or do you think there’s something in his bat?
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12:11 |
: Well, they hoped for more for him than they got (I did too)
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12:11 |
: Will we see some regulatory action on service time manipulation within the next 5 years?
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12:11 |
: Yes
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12:11 |
: what is ross atkins and why is he doing
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12:12 |
: He’s the GM of the Toronto Blue Jays and his job is to make preposterous arguments for keeping Vlad down that nobody believes.
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12:12 |
: The last time I can recall a highly touted prospect *not* having their service time manipulated in their rookie year was Jason Heyward in 2010. That time it paid off as the Braves won the wild card by 1 game while Heyward was worth 4.7 WAR. Ethics aside, should more teams (Braves included) consider this scenario?
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12:12 |
: Problem is, the one win is such an exact scenario but an additional whole year of a player is huge. Teams do it because it’s *smart* to do it
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12:13 |
: Appeals to morality are really silly, the solution is to change the CBA so that it is *not* smart to do it.
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12:14 |
: (as in not being able to)
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12:14 |
: How would the league even implement a limit on the number of fostered pitchers? As far as I know there is no requirement to list a roster player’s position. But even if there was, would would stop a team from listing a relief pitcher as an OF and just using them as a pitcher anyway?
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12:14 |
: There would likely be some bright line rule on two-way players that would have to be figured out
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12:15 |
: Some have been floating around
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12:15 |
: Any tips for a high school student who wants to pursue a career as a baseball writer?
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12:15 |
: Have a niche. Write to what you can communicate or do better than anybody else can.
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12:15 |
: And always have a point to what you write. Have a position.
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12:15 |
: When is your prospects list coming out?
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12:15 |
: After the McDongenhagen project.
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12:15 |
: When Jesus Luzardo’s career is over (non injury related) where do you think he stands? All-star? Bust? HOF?
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12:16 |
: I think he has a very good shot at making an all-star game
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12:16 |
: Alfaro’s ceiling with the Marlins this year is…………………..
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12:16 |
: Honeslty, I dont’ think Alfaro’s ceiling is really *that* high anymore
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12:17 |
: I think he’ll be a league-average catcher, but I dont’ think he’s likely to be a star
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12:17 |
: Using anything other than a spoon to eat mac and cheese should be illegal, right?
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12:17 |
: I use a fork
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12:18 |
: Kyle Gibson talked during the game yesterday about building up stamina…. Do you think he will be similar to last year or will regress back to a 5 era guy?
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12:18 |
: He did have a bump in K rate despite longer stints, I’m more optimistic than ZiPS
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12:18 |
: Approximately what kind of ‘adjustment’ (to ERA/WHIP/K9) does ZIPS show a pitcher would have if he went from a ~200 IP SP to a ~65 IP RP?
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12:18 |
: Well, I odn’t have an exact ratio of stuff offhand
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12:19 |
: ZiPS uses a player’s historical SP vs. RP performance, regressed towards league changes from position moves
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12:19 |
: I’m a die hard phillies fan who is making his first pilgrimage down to Spring Training this year! Got tickets back in january only to find out that not only am I going to see bryce harper in a phillies uni, but I’ll be seeing his first game in action!
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12:19 |
: Where Do I fit in or am I head to Scranton
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12:20 |
: I think Frazier makes the roster. I think there’s a strong chance that Ellsbury never plays another regular season game fo rhte Yankees.
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12:20 |
: If they don’t eat the contract in one way or another, I expect everyone will just agree that he’s injured again
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12:21 |
: If the MLB were to add an expansion team, which I hope they do, how would the organization even go about getting quality players right away? How would they fill minor league rosters?
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12:21 |
: Most likely, the teams would start participating in minor league drafts early
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12:22 |
: Tampa Bay and Arizona started drafting in 1996
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12:22 |
: best under-the-radar cubs reliever?
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12:22 |
: I prefer the weekly Xavier Cedeño question to the weekly Markakis joke
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12:23 |
: Good news! You just got signed for 13 years and $330M, but with the caveat that you must eat all of your meals for the life of the contract at a single restaurant. Where are you eating?
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12:23 |
: oh god
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12:24 |
: I’d like to say something healthy since it’s 13 years, but we all know it’ll probably be Arby’s
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12:24 |
: At the Yankees game in Tampa yesterday, they made an announcement that they now offered gluten-free hot dogs, but they didn’t mention anything about the bun. This only led to more questions.
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12:24 |
: Say the Rays move to Portland, what happens to the AL divisions? West becomes POR, SEA, OAK, LAA, central becomes CWS, MIN, TEX, HOU, KC, east becomes NYY, BAL, CLE, TOR, BOS? that would completely change the powers in the west and central
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12:24 |
: Hey, the Braves were in the NL West
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12:24 |
: And we still believe this myth that Iowa is on the Pacific coast.
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12:25 |
: King Felix seems done at 32, and maybe McCutchen as well. If Bartolo doesn’t make it back this year, is there anybody left who represents the opposite of this? Someone who is old enough they have no business competing with the youngins?
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12:25 |
: Well, briefly Ichiro!
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12:25 |
: Rodney’s still around
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12:26 |
: how worried should the dodgers be with Kershaw right now?
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12:26 |
: Significantly
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12:26 |
: With the NFL attempting to tap into the European market, do you see the MLB doing the same anytime soon or just sticking to Asia?
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12:26 |
: I think Asia is a more robust market for baseball
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12:27 |
: We can all giggle saying Honkbal Hoofdklasse, but the Dutch and Italian leagues aren’t as robust as KBO and NPB.
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12:28 |
: And if you are in Asia, Australia’s not too far away and they’re a good market too
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12:28 |
: Matt Wieters will be the KC catcher — St. Louis will release him once Andrew Knizner’s service time has been manipulated
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12:28 |
: I disagree with this. I think they want Knizner to get a lot of at bats this year
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12:28 |
: DO Spring performances matter for anything? Austin Hays have a shot at being who we thought he could be two years?
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12:28 |
: Dan Turkenkopf demonstrated they mean a *little* bit
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12:28 |
: but let’s nto go nuts
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12:28 |
: If MLB puts in a pitch clock, the Blue Jay home crowd will begin counting down “5-4-3-2-1” starting, not with 5 seconds to go on the clock, but at 10 seconds – to rile up opposing pitchers. They will call it the “exchange rate” on the Jumbotron. Would you be onboard and join in on the chanting?
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12:29 |
: I’m usually in the press box and this would be frowned on!
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12:29 |
: I’m not really a vocal fan
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12:29 |
: How injury-proof are the Dodgers?
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12:29 |
: Probably as close as you can get without spending $300 million
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12:29 |
: You’re the Phillies. Assume both would sign a 2/$40 mil deal, so contract is equal. Is Keuchel or Kimbrel the better fit?
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12:29 |
: Keuchel
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12:29 |
: When will you reveal your 2019 futures plays?
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12:29 |
: couple weeks
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12:29 |
: I don’t like making bets early
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12:30 |
: I know a lot about managing seasonal risks, not so much spring training risks
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12:30 |
: Reasonable to project 15 HR and 20 SB for Ramon Laureano? Any reason he won’t get 85% of starts in CF? Thanks!
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12:30 |
: Perfectly reasonable
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12:30 |
: Who is your pick for the AL CY Young and why is it Bartolo?
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12:31 |
: Bartolo since he’s the most memeable player!
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12:31 |
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12:31 |
: How do you see defensive stats evolving in the near future? Compared to offensive stats, aren’t they kind of lagging behind?
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12:32 |
: Defensive stats are always going to be behind
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12:32 |
: Because a play not made isn’t a discrete event the same way getting or not getting a hit is
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12:32 |
: Outside of fielding percentage, which obviously sucks
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12:33 |
: How do you see the Mets first base situation playing out?
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12:33 |
: I kinda suspect the Mets give Smith one last chance as an excuse to not start Alonso at the start
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12:33 |
: Players earn service time when they are injured, so sending them to the IL/DL for “reasons” wouldn’t work.
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12:33 |
: Jacoby’s service time doesn’t matter
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12:33 |
: OK. I only have a few minutes. A couple things on my mind. 1. Go easy on the human I own. He stares at a computer screen all day muttering jibberish. Go easy on him. 2. Real Chili has BEANS..like the delicious Sky Line Chili I adore. 3. You will miss Alcides Escobar when he is gone…a baseball treasure. 4. Anything crammed between two pieces of bread is a sandwich. Mustard on two pieces of bread is a mustard sandwich..Let it go people. Back to my nap.
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12:33 |
: STOP PUTTING WORDS IN MY CAT’S MOUTH
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12:33 |
: would ZIPS adjust downward the IP (and by that factor WAR) for Kuechel the longer he goes unsigned?
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12:33 |
: No
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12:34 |
: Everyone, teams will just manipulate service time in different ways in the next CBA
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12:34 |
: Let’s at least make it harder for them
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12:34 |
: After watching Vlad Jr this weekend, that kid is HUGE, he seems 40 lbs heavier than last season. How does an organization let their crown jewel get so chubby at 19-20 years old?
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12:34 |
: Maybe that’s the reason they want to keep him in the minors. He’ll be too poor to eat
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12:34 |
: (Yeah, I know he actually won’t be)
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12:35 |
: Angels didn’t mess with Trout’s service time
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12:35 |
: Which NL East team (Miami excluded) is going to have the toughest time this season and will it cause them to embark on a rebuild?
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12:35 |
: I think the wheels could come off the Nats fairly quickly if injuries happen, but I think all four of the good NL East teams will be good
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12:35 |
: Did you see the Washington post articles by the same writer, one saying the Nats should and could sign Harper to 500 million (would be a bargain), and then said at 13 years 330 million Harper is NOT worth it? How can you be a self respecting writer and say that?
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12:35 |
: I did not see that
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12:35 |
: Nate Siver proposed that if you aren’t listed as a pitcher you can’t face more batters that you have PA
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12:36 |
: Yeah, that’s one that’s floated around
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12:36 |
: When do most hitters peak? Around 29 years old? Or is it linked to experience?
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12:36 |
: YOung. MLBers it’s 26-28 and there’s evidence there’s selection bias and hitters actually peak even younger than that when you count all professional hitters
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12:36 |
: Is an oppo taco a sandwich, or a home run? A taco is a sandwich, but a home run is not a sandwich, so it can’t be both.
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12:36 |
: Tacos aren’t sandwiches
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12:36 |
: The US decided to enter WWI for a couple of reasons. In early 1917, Wilson had attempted to broker a peace deal by asking each belligerent party to submit a list of what they were hoping to accomplish with the war. Germany’s response was strikingly similar to what total victory would look like for them, including absorbing territory already seized. This of course meant that the Venn diagrams of Germany and England/France would not intersect and, as such, no negotiated settlement was going to occur. This haughty response did not sit well with an American public who had already concluded that the German aristocracy was at fault for starting the war. At the same time, the Russian Revolution had just occurred and a democratic provisional government was in place. No one knew at the time that this democratic government would be short lived, but while it was in place, the war took on a definite appearance of democracies (England/France/Russia) vs. aristocracies, the latter of which Americans abhorred.
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12:37 |
: When will Clay Buchholz show up on the Blue Jays depth charts?
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12:37 |
: Wait, did I not add him!
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12:37 |
: Crap!
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12:39 |
: OK, will be in next refresh
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12:40 |
: Re service time, how much extra revenue do teams earn when they make the playoffs? I would think teams would compare the expected revenue increase against cost of loss of a year of control?
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12:40 |
: Depends on the parameters, I’ve seen estimates of $20-$50 million from varying sources.
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12:40 |
: But the problem is, that’s only benefit if that extra win actually happens and matters.
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12:41 |
: For example, adding one win to the Phillies only added 1/25th of a playoff spot in the projections right now.
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12:42 |
: You don’t get to know if the win mattered later
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12:42 |
: Are ZiPS playing time estimators a sandwich?
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12:42 |
: THey are not
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12:42 |
: Cat update please
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12:42 |
: Galileo’s in the living room, Mercutio’s in one of the guest bedrooms sleeping in the arms of one of those big back pillows with the arms
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12:42 |
: Cassiopeia is here with her stuffed hedgehog asking me to throw it for her
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12:42 |
: Which I’m not doing with the regularity that she wants because I’m working
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12:43 |
: and she doesn’t pay me as much as my job does
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12:43 |
: You’re talking about utensils here? Geez, stick to sporks!
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12:43 |
: The Department of Culinary Tool Use would like to have a word with you, Dan.
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12:43 |
: ZiPS is projecting only 115 games for Cano. Is that just standard for a player of his age, or does the Mets’ very poor history of keeping players healthy factor in to that projection? Are all mets players similarly penalized?
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12:43 |
: Very old
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12:43 |
: What are the odds Khris Davis hits .247 again?
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12:43 |
: Exactly .247? Probably a couple percent
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12:43 |
: I MEAN 100 PERCENT IM SORRY
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12:43 |
: America had already taken on a policy of “preparedness”, meaning it was spending scads of money on the military. The fear was that, without intervention, the war would drag on interminably causing the US to continue the expensive preparedness policy forever. While this view is somewhat ironic today, perhaps even naive, the idea was that America could enter the war in order to shorten it which would save the treasury, not to mention human suffering. Also, America was going to enter the war not to obtain territory but to advance the concept of democracy by tearing down the last vestiges of European aristocracy.
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12:44 |
: It’s safe to assume that the Switch is the console of choice for baseball players, right? Wouldn’t portability trump graffics and performance in that lifestyle?
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12:44 |
: I’ve never asked players about console choice
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12:45 |
: I can’t imagine playing Fortnite on a switch, but Goldeneye N64 is the only shooter I will not require a mouse+keyboard
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12:45 |
: Who has the best rotation in the NL Central?
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12:45 |
: I think Cards/Cubs are very close
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12:45 |
: Is Yu Darvish saying this is the best my stuff ever been the same thing as best shape of my life?
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12:45 |
: He’s saying his stuff is in the best shape of its life, which is at least a cousin saying
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12:45 |
: My Russian girlfriend thinks I’m crazy not to trade Castilo for his teammate Puig because Puig is going to have a monster year in that bandbox. Is she right?
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12:46 |
: Well, in fantasy yeah
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12:46 |
: in a sim league no
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12:46 |
: Do you and your editor ever debate service time manipulation? I asked her about it and said more or less the same thing you said- that, given the current CBA, a team would be acting against its own best interests not to hold a top prospect back. She was not convinced. She seems to be very much in the camp that, in addition to being unfair to the players, it’s unfair to the fans, because they want to see the best players. My counterargument was that, as a fan of a specific team, I would like to my team hold on to the best players as long as possible, but that didn’t get any traction either.
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12:46 |
: It’s complex.
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12:46 |
: It’s probably better for fans in situatiosn where nobody notices.
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12:46 |
: But when people notice, it affects the perceived value of the product
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12:46 |
: I understand the desire to tap into a new revenue stream – lots of people will to spend money on baseball. But isn’t the idea of entering the Euro or Asia markets pretty terrible? I mean, travel is going to be a massive hurdle, not to mention that fact that games will not be watchable at reasonable times for the fan bases.
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12:47 |
: Doesn’t mean that the only way to get revenue in those market is to have teams based there
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12:48 |
: And really, if people want to watch something, they’ll make the times work
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12:48 |
: (see association football)
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12:48 |
: Everyone likes to speculate on the Rays moving to Portland but aren’t Arizona and Anaheim closer to relocation than the Rays or A’s? I say his as someone who thinks expansion is much more likely than relocation.
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12:48 |
: Don’t think Arizona is
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12:49 |
: Anaheim *may* be, you have the Long Beach rumors and there was some buzz about them talking with Vegas people at the Winter Meetings
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12:49 |
: Dan, have you decided which MLB team you would like to work for WHEN YOU ABANDON US TOO 🙁 ???
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12:49 |
: I see this as a rather unlikely scenario.
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12:50 |
: It’s not like I haven’t talked with teams about things, I’ve done something that involved me getting paid for nearly half the teams in baseball (and almost as many agencies)
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12:50 |
: At this point, I suspect if someone had a role for me in which they both find me useful *and* I’d be willing to do it, it would have already happened.
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12:50 |
: (wait, 16, more than half)
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12:51 |
: Why are professional Athletes not allowed to Incorporate? They are technically Independent contractors. This would fix the Tax issue of playing in different states and also control salaries.
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12:51 |
: You’re really getting out of my wheelhouse!
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12:51 |
: You need to take to lawyers or accountants!
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12:51 |
: talk
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12:51 |
: is the league eventually going to move to 32 teams? what impact to “tanking” will this have (make it better or worse)? what is your best guess for when it actually would take effect?
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12:52 |
: Eventually, which makes me sad since we’ll have 8×4 divisions which I hate
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12:52 |
: tanking has no effect
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12:52 |
: If Ellsbury is never going to play another game for the Yankees, which I agree with, why don’t they accept that and pick up all of his contract for a prospect?
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12:52 |
: Hey may be nearly at the place where they pick up all of his contract for nothing
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12:52 |
: Gimme a beat, yo!
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12:52 |
: Do you pull Mexican and Indy league data for ZIPS? Thinking specifically of Tyler Alexander, who if it wasn’t for weed suspensions, probably would have spent the last 5 years in the MLB
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12:52 |
: Yes and no
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12:52 |
: Nelson Cruz is old and awesome!
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12:52 |
: He’s not CRAZY old though
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12:52 |
: Which is older than me
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12:52 |
: Any out there picks for March Madness?
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12:53 |
: A think a college basketball team will go all the way this year!
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12:53 |
: I still think there’s no way Cleveland ownership allows a move to the AL East. If I were owner, I would fight that move with every lawyer in and around Cleveland
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12:53 |
: With Sal Perez out for the year, do you think Meibrys Viloria can take the lions share of reps at catcher and turn it into fantasy relevance?
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12:53 |
: He can. And no.
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12:53 |
: When is Bryce Harper going to release his tax returns?
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12:53 |
: heh
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12:53 |
: My comment about service time was in response to Gaslamp Gary’s “Can’t teams manipulate service time even if they allow the player to make the Opening Day roster? Like, send them to the “IL” for “reasons”?”
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12:53 |
: I think he meant “find a baseball-related excuse to send them down”
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12:53 |
: Even Galileo knows Skyline doesn’t have beans, just an abundance of that sweet staple of all good chilis, cinnamon.
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12:54 |
: Depends how many “ways” you have it
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12:54 |
: Are you quitting to join an MLB organization too?
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12:54 |
: No
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12:54 |
: Which classic Batman villain are you?
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12:54 |
: One Face
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12:54 |
: Favorite topping on Mac and Cheese – lobster, crab, chicken (buffalo or fried), or more cheese?
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12:55 |
: I like mac and cheese straight-up the best
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12:55 |
: What’s your favorite Spoonerism, baseball or otherwise?
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12:55 |
: Spoonerism for super power is pooper sour
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12:56 |
: Thaiss’ speed is 30 per your and MiLB ranks – he has 2 legit triples and 3 doubles (two hustle doubles). Any chance that gets bumped up? I know it doesn’t matter but it will make me feel a little better
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12:56 |
: Gotta ask Kiley and Eric, I don’t do the ranks!
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12:56 |
: Does signing someone like Maitan (when the Angels did it) give them more clout with future int’l signings (assuming two teams are offering the same money)?
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12:56 |
: Eh, they’ll go to money
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12:56 |
: Where do you think the CHW will Abreu?
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12:56 |
: I think they’ll come to an agreement on an extension
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12:57 |
: Galileo had some interesting thoughts…pretty good on the keyboard as well.
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12:57 |
: A lot of you guys should have seen Galileo tweeting. He’s not.
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12:57 |
: But never before have you had a chance to work for Carson working for a team
|
12:57 |
: There are a number of hurdles to me working for a team.
|
12:58 |
: – Pay, I lose income from data clients
|
12:58 |
: – Getting dressed
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12:58 |
: – Moving
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12:58 |
: – Not being on social media
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12:58 |
: – My work product not being mine
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12:59 |
: Those are five pretty big hurdles and I can’t imagine that *I’m* that much more valuable than the best people available that don’t have those hurdles
|
12:59 |
: I will say, the Las Vegas Angels is an amusing team name.
|
12:59 |
: It is
|
12:59 |
: Would you personally rather be an ACE, a Great closer, a stud defender/lead off man, or middle of the order Bopper?
|
12:59 |
: Ace! I play starting pitchers in MLB The Show way more often
|
12:59 |
: Chilicast – Statcast for chili. Measures density, flavor profile, temperature, enjoyment
|
1:00 |
: Why weren’t the Padres all over clay bucholz and Ervin Santana, etc?
|
1:00 |
: I’d have liked Buchholz, but I’d have little interest in Santana
|
1:00 |
: If they’re just going after lotto picks, they have their own in-house
|
1:00 |
: not crab mac and cheese? you have surrendered your marylander status
|
1:00 |
: Crab is to be eat in cakes or picked from the crab
|
1:01 |
: Why don’t more teams offer deep fried oreos at their parks?
|
1:01 |
: I think they’d have to have more full time cardiac doctors on staff every game
|
1:01 |
: The Angels will never leave Southern California because the territorial rights are too valuable.
|
1:01 |
: Good Dan, you stay put. The world needs to have nuanced sandwhich/chili/utensil debates along side its boring old/new (advanced) baseball stats.
|
1:01 |
: Do you prefer sitting along first base, third, or the outfield?
|
1:01 |
: Outfield or behind plate
|
1:01 |
: You can’t really see pitcher stuff as well first base or third base
|
1:02 |
: Dan can’t pass the drug test, guys.
|
1:02 |
: I haven’t had anything illegal since I was in Denver last September and it was legal there!
|
1:02 |
: If two expansion teams were added and divisions were realigned, would that have any effect on the playoff format?
|
1:02 |
: I’m sure it would as you’d have 8 divisional winners
|
1:02 |
: What about hurdles? Would actual hurdles be a significant hurdle to you working for a team?
|
1:03 |
: I wasn’t a great runner or jumper even when I was relatively in shape
|
1:03 |
: Like when I actively played sports
|
1:03 |
: What would your name for a Portland franchise be?
|
1:03 |
: The Portland Hammurderers
|
1:04 |
: Mostly because I want a violent version of the hamburglar
|
1:04 |
: How would it be determined which league an expansion team would be placed in?
|
1:04 |
: negotiations
|
1:04 |
: Is a Sousaphone easier to carry than a tuba?
|
1:04 |
: Yes, I’ve carried both!
|
1:04 |
: You have a shoulder for the sousaphone
|
1:05 |
: I played baritone horn in wind ensemble in high school and piano with the orchestra
|
1:05 |
: but I’d fill in on tuba/trombone
|
1:05 |
: We didn’t have a marching band though
|
1:06 |
: There was a real lack of interest in my school and on my band teacher’s part as well
|
1:06 |
: Which is fine, I just like playing music, I don’t want to be walking around in patterns or dumb crap like that
|
1:06 |
: So we played a lot of 20th century wind works, Bruckner, etc.
|
1:06 |
: Have you ever pitched a perfect game in The Show? I did it 2x in MVP 05 and still consider it one of the highlights of my gaming experience.
|
1:06 |
: I have not
|
1:06 |
: What’s your favorite other major sport?
|
1:07 |
: football, though I’m torn because of the damages players get
|
1:07 | : Here’s a fat wrestler doing The Worm… |
1:07 |
: Is John Philliks Sousa easier to carry than a tuba? what about Steven Sousa?
|
1:07 |
: I thinjk harder
|
1:07 |
: I’ve never carried a skeleton
|
1:07 |
: Wow, turned on Twins vs O
|
1:07 |
: If the winter meetings would relocate to one city in the world, what city would you vote for?
|
1:07 |
: Antarctic research station
|
1:08 |
: It would be amusing
|
1:08 |
: and I’ve always wanted to see Antarctica
|
1:08 |
: The Pirates front office says their goal for 2019 is to win a championship. Have their off-season actions matched their words?
|
1:08 |
: Yes, not really
|
1:08 |
: If sports gambling were to become universally accepted, would the case against Pete Rose soften even a little?
|
1:08 |
: No
|
1:09 |
: It’s still going to be expressly forbidden for players and managers to bet on games.
|
1:09 |
: You seem to have inherited a lot of weirdos since Eno left
|
1:09 |
: I’ve always been a weirdo
|
1:09 |
: Oh, you mean the questions?
|
1:09 |
: Favorite conductor currently active/working? I’m really loving Honeck’s recordings lately. And some Vanska.
|
1:09 |
: Thomas Fey
|
1:09 |
: Lunchtime in Chicago gotta go get some chili with beans…to make Galileo happy…….
|
1:09 |
: GALILEO DOESN’T LIKE BEANS
|
1:10 |
: he’ll eat peas though
|
1:10 |
: I’m a little bummed that Jonah Keri was a free agent and ended up at Athletic rather than come home here. His articles are why I started reading FG regularly.
|
1:10 |
: I get *why* what Pete Rose did was bad (same with Bonds, et al), but isn’t there something kinda silly about just essentially ignoring the existence of one of the greatest players of all time because they did something they shouldn’t have?
|
1:10 |
: His existence is still there
|
1:10 |
: What would your walk up song be and why?
|
1:11 |
:
|
1:11 |
: I wonder if the world would accept the Portland ‘staches
|
1:11 |
: The Portland Guys Unironically Wearing Orange Crush T-Shirts and Wearing Fedoras
|
1:11 |
: Impressive. Can you do the worm? Wear a singlet? Grow a rockin mullet?
|
1:11 |
: No, yes, yes
|
1:12 |
: What SPs should the Pads be targeting for a playoff run this or next year?
|
1:12 |
: KEUCHEL
|
1:12 |
: SALE NEXT YEART
|
1:12 |
: Portland Supersonics. Because fuck youuuuu seattle.
|
1:12 |
: How much will the Phils defense hamper them, and would that be a reason to not sign Keuchel?
|
1:12 |
: I think it’ll be better than last year
|
1:12 |
: DeVotchKa’s How It Ends would be the greatest closer entrance song of all time.
|
1:13 |
: Uh, will you wear a singlet for next Monday’s chat?
|
1:13 |
: I don’t have one
|
1:13 |
: Is “country breakfast” the best food related name for a player within the last 20 years?
|
1:13 |
: It’ sa very good one
|
1:14 |
: Does Sale shatter Greinke’s record?
|
1:14 |
: He’s got a great shot
|
1:14 |
: Favorite minor league team name? I gotta say New Orleans Baby Cakes
|
1:14 |
: I’m kinda partial to the Yard Goats
|
1:14 |
: ‘Swiss G’ > ‘Country Breakfast’
|
1:15 |
: We are a collection of misfit toys that enjoys Dan’s chats that don’t always focus on baseball..a Sienfeldian chat so to speak……
|
1:15 |
: Do you think Sale changes his last name to Regular Price before next offseason just so that teams don’t get the wrong impression?
|
1:15 |
: heh
|
1:15 |
: Since I can’t make a joke better than that, it seems a fitting time to end the chat.
|
1:15 |
: Thanks for coming everyone, see you next week!
|
1:15 |
: OR ELSE
|
1:15 |
: I PLAYED THE TUBA AS WELL. I was also the class clown #fartnoise
|
1:16 |
: I was the class non-descript
|
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
In response to a comment in this post, the Angels absolutely tried to game Trout’s service time, they just royally screwed the entire thing up. In 2012 they tried to leave him in the Minors long enough to gain a year back after an extended cup of coffee in 2011. However, he spent the first three weeks hitting .403/.467/.623 while the MLB team went 6-14. They called him up, won four of the next five, finished 83-59 with Trout on the roster, missed the playoffs by a handful of games, and failed to gain the extra year.
I find that explanation dubious (at best).
Trout was called up straight from AA in 2011 due to an injury to Bourjos, and Trout hit .220 / .281 / .390 (87 wRC+) during his 135 PA’s that year. Then after Trout tore up AAA for about a month in 2012 – 179 wRC+ in 93 PA’s at AAA that year – he was back in the majors.