Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/4/19

12:01
Gub Gub: Favorite John Candy movie…GO!

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: P, T, A. Though I have a soft spot for Harry Crumb

12:02
GY: Hanley have anything left in the tank?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No.

12:02
James m: Where are some good fits for Dallas Kuechel?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: LIkely writing something about this!

12:02
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: With Sal Perez out, should the Royals (1) play their marginal catching prospects, (2) sign Maldanado, or (3) wait for a minor trade or waiver claim for someone’s third catcher who will not make the big team at the end of spring training?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They should 1, they’ll probably 2

12:02
Jonathan: Some of the projections (especially projected WAR) look very different when comparing ZiPS articles and the Projections download.  Do you have any intuitions as to why this might be?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t use the pure FIP WAR, I include projected LI in my projections, and I do some other things differently (DH set as 1B replacement because of strong evidence of DH hurting offensive performance to a degree)

12:03
Captain J.W.A. Funkyfresh: Tell more stories

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would think you guys got your fill last week!

12:03
LFC Mike: A good frozen Monday morning Dan. 2 months since your Braves Zips. Any changes on your thoughts on Ozzie Albies  or Touki? The 2H performance from Albies seems to be dominating peoples minds. Learning curve up?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s not changing the ZiPS! Though I really like both

12:03
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Assuming the Rays move at the end of their lease, where do they go?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nowhere. Baseball wants to keep teams for extortion candidates

12:04
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Bold predictions for where Kimbrel ends up?  Any chance of SD reunion?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I’m doing a piece on this!

12:05
Gub Gub: Do you believe the decision of the United States Congress to fail to ratify the Treaty of Versailles over the League of Nations was a result of knee-jerk partisan opposition to Wilson’s dickish sermonizing approach, or a genuine concern over turning over too much sovereignty in foreign affairs to a Allied-led Europe that appeared to have learned nothing over the previous 4 years of war?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d say parts of both.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even after entering WWI, there still wasn’t a “great” reason for the US to be involved in WWI. Unlike WWII, this was a war that was largely European diplomatic tangles. I *still* don’t see a compelling reason for us to have been involved. So there wasn’t the stomach on a lot of people for getting involved any more than needed.

12:06
Gaslamp Gary: Any reason besides the dumb service time clock that Chris Paddack wouldn’t be the Padres Opening Day starter?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, Lucchesi is the best starter on the team *at this moment*

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hopefully they won’t try to game Super Two. The Padres are a highly interesting wild card team if they hit their flush on a couple of starting pitchers this year, so the more starts they have from those guys that could actually do that, the better

12:08
Jkim: Kershaw seems to have a shoulder issue – assuming he won’t make it how much does it hurt the Dodgers’ chances this year? Still NL West favorites by far though right?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the Dodgers are the clear favorite if Kershaw retires to become a Frangelico salesman.

12:08
Ben: Is there concern with ATL going into the season, not doing enough to improve the team? FG projects Braves to finish 4th in the East. Donaldson keeps getting held back. Swanson’s wrist still hurts. Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Minter, Gohara all have sore shoulders/elbows. Ugh.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THe injuries are concerning. They’ve had more than their fair share

12:08
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Who will be labeled “in the best shape of their lives” in spring training that will absolutely not live up to it?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 95% of players

12:09
Gaslamp Gary: Can’t teams manipulate service time even if they allow the player to make the Opening Day roster? Like, send them to the “IL” for “reasons”?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As long as it’s more than 20 days on optional assignment, yes

12:09
Adam : Do expected statistics take into account the speed of a player? If not, how do you think this can be incorporated?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does.

12:09
Gaslamp Gary: I am not trying to knock Vlad Jr in any way. Just curious. Why is he the #1 overall prospect when he clearly is lacking in defense and speed? I get #1 overall hitter, absolutely, but shouldn’t the #1 overall spot go to a 5-tool kinda guy? Like Tatis, Robles or Lewis?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, the tools aren’t created equal.

12:10
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Be honest:  who was your pre-offseason pick for last free agent to sign major league deal?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Moustakas

12:11
Matt: Thoughts on Kingery? That contract due to defense, or do you think there’s something in his bat?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, they hoped for more for him than they got (I did too)

12:11
Rivervillian: Will we see some regulatory action on service time manipulation within the next 5 years?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:11
Rivervillian: what is ross atkins and why is he doing

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s the GM of the Toronto Blue Jays and his job is to make preposterous arguments for keeping Vlad down that nobody believes.

12:12
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: The last time I can recall a highly touted prospect *not* having their service time manipulated in their rookie year was Jason Heyward in 2010.  That time it paid off as the Braves won the wild card by 1 game while Heyward was worth 4.7 WAR.  Ethics aside, should more teams (Braves included) consider this scenario?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Problem is, the one win is such an exact scenario but an additional whole year of a player is huge. Teams do it because it’s *smart* to do it

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Appeals to morality are really silly, the solution is to change the CBA so that it is *not* smart to do it.

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (as in not being able to)

12:14
pelkey: How would the league even implement a limit on the number of fostered pitchers? As far as I know there is no requirement to list a roster player’s position. But even if there was, would would stop a team from listing a relief pitcher as an OF and just using them as a pitcher anyway?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There would likely be some bright line rule on two-way players that would have to be figured out

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some have been floating around

12:15
Casey: Any tips for a high school student who wants to pursue a career as a baseball writer?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Have a niche. Write to what you can communicate or do better than anybody else can.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And always have a point to what you write. Have a position.

12:15
Purple Mays Haze: When is your prospects list coming out?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: After the McDongenhagen project.

12:15
Reagan: When Jesus Luzardo’s career is over (non injury related) where do you think he stands? All-star? Bust? HOF?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he has a very good shot at making an all-star game

12:16
Swinging Padre Patch : Alfaro’s ceiling with the Marlins this year is…………………..

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I dont’ think Alfaro’s ceiling is really *that* high anymore

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be a league-average catcher, but I dont’ think he’s likely to be a star

12:17
Matt: Using anything other than a spoon to eat mac and cheese should be illegal, right?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I use a fork

12:18
E. Coli: Kyle Gibson talked during the game yesterday about building up stamina…. Do you think he will be similar to last year or will regress back to a 5 era guy?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He did have a bump in K rate despite longer stints, I’m more optimistic than ZiPS

12:18
Purple Mays Haze: Approximately what kind of ‘adjustment’ (to ERA/WHIP/K9) does ZIPS show a pitcher would have if he went from a ~200 IP SP to a ~65 IP RP?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, I odn’t have an exact ratio of stuff offhand

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses a player’s historical SP vs. RP performance, regressed towards league changes from position moves

12:19
Phan!!: I’m a die hard phillies fan who is making his first pilgrimage down to Spring Training this year! Got tickets back in january only to find out that not only am I going to see bryce harper in a phillies uni, but I’ll be seeing his first game in action!

12:19
CLINT: Where Do I fit in or am I head to Scranton

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Frazier makes the roster. I think there’s a strong chance that Ellsbury never plays another regular season game fo rhte Yankees.

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If they don’t eat the contract in one way or another, I expect everyone will just agree that he’s injured again

12:21
Fartrell Cluggins: If the MLB were to add an expansion team, which I hope they do, how would the organization even go about getting quality players right away? How would they fill minor league rosters?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most likely, the teams would start participating in minor league drafts early

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tampa Bay and Arizona started drafting in 1996

12:22
CE: best under-the-radar cubs reliever?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I prefer the weekly Xavier Cedeño question to the weekly Markakis joke

12:23
Archimedes: Good news! You just got signed for 13 years and $330M, but with the caveat that you must eat all of your meals for the life of the contract at a single restaurant. Where are you eating?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oh god

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d like to say something healthy since it’s 13 years, but we all know it’ll probably be Arby’s

12:24
Gub Gub: At the Yankees game in Tampa yesterday, they made an announcement that they now offered gluten-free hot dogs, but they didn’t mention anything about the bun.  This only led to more questions.

12:24
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: Say the Rays move to Portland, what happens to the AL divisions? West becomes POR, SEA, OAK, LAA, central becomes CWS, MIN, TEX, HOU, KC, east becomes NYY, BAL, CLE, TOR, BOS? that would completely change the powers in the west and central

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey, the Braves were in the NL West

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And we still believe this myth that Iowa is on the Pacific coast.

12:25
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: King Felix seems done at 32, and maybe McCutchen as well.  If Bartolo doesn’t make it back this year, is there anybody left who represents the opposite of this?  Someone who is old enough they have no business competing with the youngins?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, briefly Ichiro!

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rodney’s still around

12:26
stever20: how worried should the dodgers be with Kershaw right now?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Significantly

12:26
BizmoFunions: With the NFL attempting to tap into the European market, do you see the MLB doing the same anytime soon or just sticking to Asia?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Asia is a more robust market for baseball

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We can all giggle saying Honkbal Hoofdklasse, but the Dutch and Italian leagues aren’t as robust as KBO and NPB.

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And if you are in Asia, Australia’s not too far away and they’re a good market too

12:28
kevinthecomic: Matt Wieters will be the KC catcher — St. Louis will release him once Andrew Knizner’s service time has been manipulated

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I disagree with this. I think they want Knizner to get a lot of at bats this year

12:28
DJ Tanner: DO Spring performances matter for anything? Austin Hays have a shot at being who we thought he could be two years?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dan Turkenkopf demonstrated they mean a *little* bit

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but let’s nto go nuts

12:28
Purple Mays Haze: If MLB puts in a pitch clock, the Blue Jay home crowd will begin counting down “5-4-3-2-1” starting, not with 5 seconds to go on the clock, but at 10 seconds – to rile up opposing pitchers. They will call it the “exchange rate” on the Jumbotron. Would you be onboard and join in on the chanting?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m usually in the press box and this would be frowned on!

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a vocal fan

12:29
Johnston: How injury-proof are the Dodgers?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably as close as you can get without spending $300 million

12:29
Eddie Oropesa: You’re the Phillies. Assume both would sign a 2/$40 mil deal, so contract is equal. Is Keuchel or Kimbrel the better fit?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Keuchel

12:29
Derek in Little Rock: When will you reveal your 2019 futures plays?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: couple weeks

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t like making bets early

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know a lot about managing seasonal risks, not so much spring training risks

12:30
NittanyChris: Reasonable to project 15 HR and 20 SB for Ramon Laureano? Any reason he won’t get 85% of starts in CF? Thanks!

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Perfectly reasonable

12:30
Name: Who is your pick for the AL CY Young and why is it Bartolo?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bartolo since he’s the most memeable player!

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:31
Smooth Jamz: How do you see defensive stats evolving in the near future? Compared to offensive stats, aren’t they kind of lagging behind?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Defensive stats are always going to be behind

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because a play not made isn’t a discrete event the same way getting or not getting a hit is

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Outside of fielding percentage, which obviously sucks

12:33
Upton Sr. : How do you see the Mets first base situation playing out?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I kinda suspect the Mets give Smith one last chance as an excuse to not start Alonso at the start

12:33
Name: Players earn service time when they are injured, so sending them to the IL/DL for “reasons” wouldn’t work.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jacoby’s service time doesn’t matter

12:33
Galileo Speaks!: OK. I only have a few minutes. A couple things on my mind. 1. Go easy on the human I own. He stares at a computer screen all day muttering jibberish. Go easy on him. 2. Real Chili has BEANS..like the delicious Sky Line Chili I adore.  3. You will miss Alcides Escobar when he is gone…a baseball treasure. 4. Anything crammed between two pieces of bread is a sandwich. Mustard on two pieces of bread is a mustard sandwich..Let it go people.    Back to my nap.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: STOP PUTTING WORDS IN MY CAT’S MOUTH

12:33
JC: would ZIPS adjust downward the IP (and by that factor WAR) for Kuechel the longer he goes unsigned?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

12:34
Jay: Everyone, teams will just manipulate service time in different ways in the next CBA

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s at least make it harder for them

12:34
Big joe Mufferaw: After watching Vlad Jr this weekend, that kid is HUGE, he seems 40 lbs heavier than last season. How does an organization let their crown jewel get so chubby at 19-20 years old?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe that’s the reason they want to keep him in the minors. He’ll be too poor to eat

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Yeah, I know he actually won’t be)

12:35
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: Angels didn’t mess with Trout’s service time

12:35
Matt W: Which NL East team (Miami excluded) is going to have the toughest time this season and will it cause them to embark on a rebuild?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the wheels could come off the Nats fairly quickly if injuries happen, but I think all four of the good NL East teams will be good

12:35
Big joe Mufferaw: Did you see the Washington post articles by the same writer, one saying the Nats should and could sign Harper to 500 million (would be a bargain), and then said at 13 years 330 million Harper is NOT worth it? How can you be a self respecting writer and say that?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did not see that

12:35
Name: Nate Siver proposed that if you aren’t listed as a pitcher you can’t face more batters that you have PA

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s one that’s floated around

12:36
Jay: When do most hitters peak? Around 29 years old? Or is it linked to experience?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOung. MLBers it’s 26-28 and there’s evidence there’s selection bias and hitters actually peak even younger than that when you count all professional hitters

12:36
Bread Gardner: Is an oppo taco a sandwich, or a home run?  A taco is a sandwich, but a home run is not a sandwich, so it can’t be both.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tacos aren’t sandwiches

12:36
kevinthecomic: The US decided to enter WWI for a couple of reasons.  In early 1917, Wilson had attempted to broker a peace deal by asking each belligerent party to submit a list of what they were hoping to accomplish with the war.  Germany’s response was strikingly similar to what total victory would look like for them, including absorbing territory already seized.  This of course meant that the Venn diagrams of Germany and England/France would not intersect and, as such, no negotiated settlement was going to occur.  This haughty response did not sit well with an American public who had already concluded that the German aristocracy was at fault for starting the war.  At the same time, the Russian Revolution had just occurred and a democratic provisional government was in place.  No one knew at the time that this democratic government would be short lived, but while it was in place, the war took on a definite appearance of democracies (England/France/Russia) vs. aristocracies, the latter of which Americans abhorred.

12:37
BenZ: When will Clay Buchholz show up on the Blue Jays depth charts?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, did I not add him!

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Crap!

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, will be in next refresh

12:40
troke: Re service time, how much extra revenue do teams earn when they make the playoffs? I would think teams would compare the expected revenue increase against cost of loss of a year of control?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends on the parameters, I’ve seen estimates of $20-$50 million from varying sources.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the problem is, that’s only benefit if that extra win actually happens and matters.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, adding one win to the Phillies only added 1/25th of a playoff spot in the projections right now.

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You don’t get to know if the win mattered later

12:42
Anonymous: Are ZiPS playing time estimators a sandwich?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THey are not

12:42
greg: Cat update please

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s in the living room, Mercutio’s in one of the guest bedrooms sleeping in the arms of one of those big back pillows with the arms

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is here with her stuffed hedgehog asking me to throw it for her

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which I’m not doing with the regularity that she wants because I’m working

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and she doesn’t pay me as much as my job does

12:43
CamdenWarehouse: You’re talking about utensils here? Geez, stick to sporks!

12:43
Matt: The Department of Culinary Tool Use would like to have a word with you, Dan.

12:43
Matt W: ZiPS is projecting only 115 games for Cano. Is that just standard for a player of his age, or does the Mets’ very poor history of keeping players healthy factor in to that projection? Are all mets players similarly penalized?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Very old

12:43
Bubba: What are the odds Khris Davis hits .247 again?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Exactly .247? Probably a couple percent

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I MEAN 100 PERCENT IM SORRY

12:43
kevinthecomic: America had already taken on a policy of “preparedness”, meaning it was spending scads of money on the military.  The fear was that, without intervention, the war would drag on interminably causing the US to continue the expensive preparedness policy forever.  While this view is somewhat ironic today, perhaps even naive, the idea was that America could enter the war in order to shorten it which would save the treasury, not to mention human suffering.  Also, America was going to enter the war not to obtain territory but to advance the concept of democracy by tearing down the last vestiges of European aristocracy.

12:44
Chuncey Wiggins: It’s safe to assume that the Switch is the console of choice for baseball players, right? Wouldn’t portability trump graffics and  performance in that lifestyle?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve never asked players about console choice

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine playing Fortnite on a switch, but Goldeneye N64 is the only shooter I will not require a mouse+keyboard

12:45
Dave: Who has the best rotation in the NL Central?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Cards/Cubs are very close

12:45
My name is Judge…: Is Yu Darvish saying this is the best my stuff ever been the same thing as best shape of my life?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s saying his stuff is in the best shape of its life, which is at least a cousin saying

12:45
Crazy Sammi Meatballs: My Russian girlfriend thinks I’m crazy not to trade Castilo for his teammate Puig because Puig is going to have a monster year in that bandbox.  Is she right?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, in fantasy yeah

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: in a sim league no

12:46
That person again: Do you and your editor ever debate service time manipulation? I asked her about it and said more or less the same thing you said- that, given the current CBA, a team would be acting against its own best interests not to hold a top prospect back. She was not convinced. She seems to be very much in the camp that, in addition to being unfair to the players, it’s unfair to the fans, because they want to see the best players. My counterargument was that, as a fan of a specific team, I would like to my team hold on to the best players as long as possible, but that didn’t get any traction either.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s complex.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s probably better for fans in situatiosn where nobody notices.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But when people notice, it affects the perceived value of the product

12:46
Matt: I understand the desire to tap into a new revenue stream – lots of people will to spend money on baseball. But isn’t the idea of entering the Euro or Asia markets pretty terrible? I mean, travel is going to be a massive hurdle, not to mention that fact that games will not be watchable at reasonable times for the fan bases.

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t mean that the only way to get revenue in those market is to have teams based there

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And really, if people want to watch something, they’ll make the times work

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (see association football)

12:48
Rey Diablo: Everyone likes to speculate on the Rays moving to Portland but aren’t Arizona and Anaheim closer to relocation than the Rays or A’s? I say his as someone who thinks expansion is much more likely than relocation.

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t think Arizona is

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Anaheim *may* be, you have the Long Beach rumors and there was some buzz about them talking with Vegas people at the Winter Meetings

12:49
Milwaukee Beerjays: Dan, have you decided which MLB team you would like to work for WHEN YOU ABANDON US TOO 🙁 ???

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I see this as a rather unlikely scenario.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I haven’t talked with teams about things, I’ve done something that involved me getting paid for nearly half the teams in baseball (and almost as many agencies)

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At this point, I suspect if someone had a role for me in which they both find me useful *and* I’d be willing to do it, it would have already happened.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (wait, 16, more than half)

12:51
Big joe Mufferaw: Why are professional Athletes not allowed to Incorporate? They are technically Independent contractors. This would fix the Tax issue of playing in different states and also control salaries.

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re really getting out of my wheelhouse!

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You need to take to lawyers or accountants!

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: talk

12:51
My name is Judge…: is the league eventually going to move to 32 teams?  what impact to “tanking” will this have (make it better or worse)?  what is your best guess for when it actually would take effect?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eventually, which makes me sad since we’ll have 8×4 divisions which I hate

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: tanking has no effect

12:52
bosoxforlife: If Ellsbury is never going to play another game for the Yankees, which I agree with, why don’t they accept that and pick up all of his contract for a prospect?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey may be nearly at the place where they pick up all of his contract for nothing

12:52
Gangly White Breakdancer: Gimme a beat, yo!

12:52
Towel: Do you pull Mexican and Indy league data for ZIPS? Thinking specifically of Tyler Alexander, who if it wasn’t for weed suspensions, probably would have spent the last 5 years in the MLB

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes and no

12:52
pelkey: Nelson Cruz is old and awesome!

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s not CRAZY old though

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which is older than me

12:52
Spring Fever: Any out there picks for March Madness?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A think a college basketball team will go all the way this year!

12:53
Indymets: I still think there’s no way Cleveland ownership allows a move to the AL East.  If I were owner, I would fight that move with every lawyer in and around Cleveland

12:53
Devin : With Sal Perez out for the year, do you think Meibrys Viloria can take the lions share of reps at catcher and turn it into fantasy relevance?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He can. And no.

12:53
Matt: When is Bryce Harper going to release his tax returns?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: heh

12:53
Name: My comment about service time was in response to Gaslamp Gary’s “Can’t teams manipulate service time even if they allow the player to make the Opening Day roster? Like, send them to the “IL” for “reasons”?”

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he meant “find a baseball-related excuse to send them down”

12:53
Rey Diablo: Even Galileo knows Skyline doesn’t have beans, just an abundance of that sweet staple of all good chilis, cinnamon.

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends how many “ways” you have it

12:54
Big joe Mufferaw: Are you quitting to join an MLB organization too?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

12:54
Gub Gub: Which classic Batman villain are you?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One Face

12:54
PD: Favorite topping on Mac and Cheese – lobster, crab, chicken (buffalo or fried), or more cheese?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like mac and cheese straight-up the best

12:55
Gub Gub: What’s your favorite Spoonerism, baseball or otherwise?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Spoonerism for super power is pooper sour

12:56
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: Thaiss’ speed is 30 per your and MiLB ranks – he has 2 legit triples and 3 doubles (two hustle doubles). Any chance that gets bumped up? I know it doesn’t matter but it will make me feel a little better

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gotta ask Kiley and Eric, I don’t do the ranks!

12:56
Kyler Murray is 5’10.125′: Does signing someone like Maitan (when the Angels did it) give them more clout with future int’l signings (assuming two teams are offering the same money)?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eh, they’ll go to money

12:56
Fartrell Cluggins: Where do you think the CHW will Abreu?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll come to an agreement on an extension

12:57
LFC Mike: Galileo had some interesting thoughts…pretty good on the keyboard as well.

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A lot of you guys should have seen Galileo tweeting. He’s not.

12:57
CamdenWarehouse: But never before have you had a chance to work for Carson working for a team

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are a number of hurdles to me working for a team.

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: – Pay, I lose income from data clients

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: – Getting dressed

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: – Moving

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: – Not being on social media

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: – My work product not being mine

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Those are five pretty big hurdles and I can’t imagine that *I’m* that much more valuable than the best people available that don’t have those hurdles

12:59
Archimedes: I will say, the Las Vegas Angels is an amusing team name.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It is

12:59
Big joe Mufferaw: Would you personally rather be an ACE, a Great closer, a stud defender/lead off man, or middle of the order Bopper?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ace! I play starting pitchers in MLB The Show way more often

12:59
Guest: Chilicast – Statcast for chili. Measures density, flavor profile, temperature, enjoyment

1:00
Gerald: Why weren’t the Padres all over clay bucholz and Ervin Santana, etc?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d have liked Buchholz, but I’d have little interest in Santana

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If they’re just going after lotto picks, they have their own in-house

1:00
CamdenWarehouse: not crab mac and cheese? you have surrendered your marylander status

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Crab is to be eat in cakes or picked from the crab

1:01
Tony Stark: Why don’t more teams offer deep fried oreos at their parks?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’d have to have more full time cardiac doctors on staff every game

1:01
Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: The Angels will never leave Southern California because the territorial rights are too valuable.

1:01
Milwaukee Beerjays: Good Dan, you stay put. The world needs to have nuanced sandwhich/chili/utensil debates along side its boring old/new (advanced) baseball stats.

1:01
Thor: Do you prefer sitting along first base, third, or the outfield?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Outfield or behind plate

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can’t really see pitcher stuff as well first base or third base

1:02
976: Dan can’t pass the drug test, guys.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had anything illegal since I was in Denver last September and it was legal there!

1:02
Cap: If two expansion teams were added and divisions were realigned, would that have any effect on the playoff format?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m sure it would as you’d have 8 divisional winners

1:02
Matt: What about hurdles? Would actual hurdles be a significant hurdle to you working for a team?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t a great runner or jumper even when I was relatively in shape

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like when I actively played sports

1:03
Ant Man: What would your name for a Portland franchise be?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Portland Hammurderers

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mostly because I want a violent version of the hamburglar

1:04
Rocket Racoon: How would it be determined which league an expansion team would be placed in?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: negotiations

1:04
Gub Gub: Is a Sousaphone easier to carry than a tuba?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes, I’ve carried both!

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You have a shoulder for the sousaphone

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I played baritone horn in wind ensemble in high school and piano with the orchestra

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I’d fill in on tuba/trombone

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We didn’t have a marching band though

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There was a real lack of interest in my school and on my band teacher’s part as well

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which is fine, I just like playing music, I don’t want to be walking around in patterns or dumb crap like that

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So we played a lot of 20th century wind works, Bruckner, etc.

1:06
Rey Diablo: Have you ever pitched a perfect game in The Show? I did it 2x in MVP 05 and still consider it one of the highlights of my gaming experience.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not

1:06
Big joe Mufferaw: What’s your favorite other major sport?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: football, though I’m torn because of the damages players get

1:07
Why? WHY!?!: Here’s a fat wrestler doing The Worm…https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/ytxzou3bblsrfaameenh…

1:07
LFC Mike: Is John Philliks Sousa easier to carry than a tuba? what about Steven Sousa?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I thinjk harder

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve never carried a skeleton

1:07
Big joe Mufferaw: Wow, turned on Twins vs O

1:07
Peter Parker: If the winter meetings would relocate to one city in the world, what city would you vote for?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Antarctic research station

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It would be amusing

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I’ve always wanted to see Antarctica

1:08
PghSportsFan: The Pirates front office says their goal for 2019 is to win a championship.  Have their off-season actions matched their words?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes, not really

1:08
Groot: If sports gambling were to become universally accepted, would the case against Pete Rose soften even a little?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s still going to be expressly forbidden for players and managers to bet on games.

1:09
MLB Enthusiast: You seem to have inherited a lot of weirdos since Eno left

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve always been a weirdo

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, you mean the questions?

1:09
Ben: Favorite conductor currently active/working? I’m really loving Honeck’s recordings lately. And some Vanska.

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thomas Fey

1:09
LFC Mike: Lunchtime in Chicago gotta go get some chili with beans…to make Galileo happy…….

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: GALILEO DOESN’T LIKE BEANS

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: he’ll eat peas though

1:10
Matt: I’m a little bummed that Jonah Keri was a free agent and ended up at Athletic rather than come home here. His articles are why I started reading FG regularly.

1:10
Matt: I get *why* what Pete Rose did was bad (same with Bonds, et al), but isn’t there something kinda silly about just essentially ignoring the existence of one of the greatest players of all time because they did something they shouldn’t have?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His existence is still there

1:10
Hulk: What would your walk up song be and why?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:11
pelkey: I wonder if the world would accept the Portland ‘staches

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Portland Guys Unironically Wearing Orange Crush T-Shirts and Wearing Fedoras

1:11
Gub Gub: Impressive. Can you do the worm? Wear a singlet? Grow a rockin mullet?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, yes, yes

1:12
beefy: What SPs should the Pads be targeting for a playoff run this or next year?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: KEUCHEL

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SALE NEXT YEART

1:12
Anonymous: Portland Supersonics. Because fuck youuuuu seattle.

1:12
beefy: How much will the Phils defense hamper them, and would that be a reason to not sign Keuchel?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be better than last year

1:12
Rey Diablo: DeVotchKa’s How It Ends would be the greatest closer entrance song of all time.

1:13
Gub Gub: Uh, will you wear a singlet for next Monday’s chat?

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have one

1:13
Rivervillian: Is “country breakfast” the best food related name for a player within the last 20 years?

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’ sa very good one

1:14
Name: Does Sale shatter Greinke’s record?

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s got a great shot

1:14
Captain Marvel: Favorite minor league team name? I gotta say New Orleans Baby Cakes

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m kinda partial to the Yard Goats

1:14
Scott Boras: ‘Swiss G’ > ‘Country Breakfast’

1:15
LFC Mike: We are a collection of misfit toys that enjoys Dan’s chats that don’t always focus on baseball..a Sienfeldian chat so to speak……

1:15
Matt: Do you think Sale changes his last name to Regular Price before next offseason just so that teams don’t get the wrong impression?

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: heh

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since I can’t make a joke better than that, it seems a fitting time to end the chat.

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone, see you next week!

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OR ELSE

1:15
Milwaukee Beerjays: I PLAYED THE TUBA AS WELL. I was also the class clown #fartnoise

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was the class non-descript





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Terencemember
5 years ago

In response to a comment in this post, the Angels absolutely tried to game Trout’s service time, they just royally screwed the entire thing up. In 2012 they tried to leave him in the Minors long enough to gain a year back after an extended cup of coffee in 2011. However, he spent the first three weeks hitting .403/.467/.623 while the MLB team went 6-14. They called him up, won four of the next five, finished 83-59 with Trout on the roster, missed the playoffs by a handful of games, and failed to gain the extra year.

Dave T
5 years ago
Reply to  Terence

I find that explanation dubious (at best).

Trout was called up straight from AA in 2011 due to an injury to Bourjos, and Trout hit .220 / .281 / .390 (87 wRC+) during his 135 PA’s that year. Then after Trout tore up AAA for about a month in 2012 – 179 wRC+ in 93 PA’s at AAA that year – he was back in the majors.