Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/4/21

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Welcome to Dan’s first ever chat using a Ryzen CPU!

12:02
dimepackage: Hey Dan. Can the ACT projections be utilized in a points league? If so, how?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, in what sense? As in an automatic tool? I don’t really use automatic tools in fantasy.

12:03
Jimmy: 3 year zips tomorrow?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Should be next few days.

12:03
No link: No link on homepage of fangraphs

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Uh oh!

12:04
Jim Leyland Palmer: That Szymborski. He thinks he’s the Pope of Chili Town

12:04
James: For all of the (probably deserved) flack AJ Preller gets for how he conducts business, he seems to genuinely build goodwill in his player relationships. Learning Spanish & Japanese to communicate better, never once went to arbitration with a player, doesn’t play service time games (Paddack, Tatis). Do you think that goodwill has any sort of effect in player decisions, like the Tatis extension, however small?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it can have an effect on the margins. Nobody’s going to give up ten millions of dollars in goodwill, but in close decisions, I can see it making a difference.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because a team is a workplace, after all. We’ve all made decisions based on workplace dynamics, I’m sure!

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like when I was looking to change jobs a few years ago, my salary requirements for this position was ultimately less than it would have been for other positions elsewhere. There’s a lot to be said for knowing and liking the people and being in an environment in which you can explore a lot of things.

12:08
Scott: No question, but just a general thanks for everything you all do here at FG. Been a subscriber for a couple years, and love everyone’s work – especially the chat.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for your support! The support of the community was huge during the baseball interregnum last spring and early summer.

12:08
Jonah: Love the Zips percentile outcomes shown in your recent breakout hitters article! I noticed PA are held steady for all players. Have you considered (is it feasible) to bake in injury risk into these percentile outcomes?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did, but the problem is, that the range of performance expectations ought to be different at different PA, so we end up needing either a three-dimensional graph or a rather unsatisfying ensemble result

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’d kinda end up with a situation that the percentiles will *sort of* represent the variability in performance and *sort of* represent the injury risk

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the end, projection systems are best for looking at performance variation and by keeping it set to a fixed PA, you can better represent the range in a player’s abilities.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I think people understand that injured players are likely to play worse.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the stats are easier to interpret doing it this way.

12:12
Leo: What does the 90th and 10th percentile outcome look like for Adley Rutschman?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Percentile BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR HBP SF   90% .258 .331 .487 530 75 137 34 0 29 85 57 102 9 119 4.4 4 8   80% .254 .321 .456 535 73 136 33 0 25 79 52 110 7 108 3.6 4 7   70% .251 .316 .439 537 71 135 32 0 23 75 50 115 6 103 3.2 4 7   60% .247 .309 .421 539 69 133 31 0 21 72 48 121 5 96 2.7 4 7   50% .246 .307 .413 540 68 133 30 0 20 71 47 125 5 94 2.5 4 7   40% .244 .304 .396 541 67 132 28 0 18 69 46 129 4 89 2.1 4 7   30% .243 .299 .392 544 67 132 27 0 18 67 43 135 3 86 1.9 3 7   20% .240 .295 .376 545 65 131 26 0 16 65 42 142 3 82 1.6 3 7   10% .239 .290 .367 548 64 131 25 0 15 62 39 153 2 78 1.3 3 6

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OH GOD

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The issue with the chat not appearing on front page is being dealt with.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the meantime, I’m willing to answer pretty much any dumb question! lol

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here’s some unicorn vomit in the meantime.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:18
Rodney: Glad to see you’re a believer that Gary Sanchez can bounce back. How many more years do you think he can stay serviceable at catcher?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He *can* though it’s certainly not will! He’s OK at the position and should be at a while, but he’s never going to be a plus there

12:19
Tristan: Any chance of a piece on greatest needs for contenders? ZiPS must have ideas about gaping holes and potential solutions.

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m probably doing the ZIPS final standings projections division-by-division, so we’ll likely get into that

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I kind of have an idea how to do it based on the FG depth charts

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though it would involve <gulp> like 240 simulations

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Just for position players.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hmm

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If we don’t get this resolved soon, I’ll close this chat early!

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m sure you guys don’t want me to just stream-of-consciousness it!

12:28
Eric: Any hope for Jake Bauers and Miguel Andujar to turn their careers around? If so, what type of numbers do you see from them?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not especially hopeful for Andujar. Offense-wise, maybe, but he’s got such little defensive value

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not particularly optimistic about Bauers

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His minor league offensive numbers were *really* walk-heavy, and those guys don’t really translate all that well.

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now, he was young, but he never really showed the type of power in the minors you want to see if from a 1B/cOF guy

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now, guys without power at those positions can succeed, but they have to be Mark Grace-types and Bauer wasn’t really that good at that stuff either

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s worth having in an org, but one shouldn’t be counting on him as a future starter

12:33
Eric: Thanks for answering. Just took a flyer on them in a 20 team dynasty with pick 1039 and 1041 ha

12:33
LFC Mike: Spring Training Greetings Dan. A question and a request. Is there a player(s) that you have a gut feeling will outperform or underperform his ZIPs projection for this year? Second, IFC has Three’s Company marathons now (it did not age well) but you know what we want. Regale us please. You know the words. Come and knock on our  door Dan?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I *am* doing a series right now!

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ok, i’ll do three’s company

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, I don’t have audacity or anything installed yet

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Forgot, new install

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: so I’ll have to do that for next week

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless you guys forget

12:37
LFC Mike: Note to self..Dan said he will do Three’s Company theme next week……there we go….anticipation is building already

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: dangit!

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m curious why it amuses a subset of you. I cannot sing at all.

12:38
CeddyBReady: I was a little disappointed with your answer last week on tortilla superiority.  I have conducted more tests.  I’m ready to proclaim wraps as superior to the traditionalists’ sandwich AND quesadillas as superior to grilled cheese.  Fight me?  HUGS!

12:39
LFC Mike: We like to know our hero can fail at something….

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I fail at literally everything in my life that’s not job-related! lol

12:43
james123: Hi Dan, If A. Hicks is healthy (big if( all year what would be his 2021 stats?

12:43
CeddyBReady: What’s your favorite baseball player name.  My boy Terrin Vavra is clearly top 10%.  It sounds like a Mortal Combat finishing move and something you shouldn’t do in the bedroom.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a pretty big if. And it’s an I don’t know; it’s hard to gauge just how good he is right now!

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My favorite baseball name is Maxim St. Pierre because it sounds like an obviously fake name but i tisn’t

12:44
Guest: How much do you trust the defensive stats for Colorado outfielders during the 90s and 2000s?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Colorado defensive stats are a little tricky

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though modern methods are better at dealign with that

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: though there are still some weird positions like LF Boston

12:44
CeddyBReady: Your ZIPS top 100 prospects article had Braden Shewmake rated quite highly.  I am also a fan.  Do you share ZIPS love of Shewmake, or does the computer think independently of you?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Computer thinks independently of me!

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m annoyed I haven’t gotten to see him play yet

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I’m cautiously optimistic

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hope the defense holds up up the ladder

12:46
John: Will anyone hit 50 homers this year? If so, which player(s) do you think it will be?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the Pirates will, it’ll just take a while

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: <ducking>

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Acuña at 24%!

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Alonso 16.5, Trout 11.4, Soto 11.3, Olson 10.7, Stanton 9.2, Bellinger 8.9, then big dropoff

12:49
Cheesesteak and Cheesecake: An ultimate lunchtime challenge — now I must resist a nap until 5.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sounds like a delicious challenge

12:49
PG: Are you going to do a zips spreadsheet like in the past with defensive number ratings for DMB users and the ability to comment on missing/needed players and positions? Thanks!

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup

12:50
HBP: Hi Dan!  Need Zips to justify my recently-purchased Bieber cards.  What’s the computer see in next 10 years?   Only interested in answers that provide confirmation bias.  🙂

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, ZiPS think he’;s pretty awesome now, so no reason to expec otherwise except for injury!

12:50
Bob Pollard: Who do you think is the closest comp to Wander Franco, not in terms of talent but in the consensus that he’s going to be a stud? Vlad Jr? Profar? No one?

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Harperish

12:50
Guest: Any tips for an aspiring data analyst looking to get into sports?

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Think of interesting questions and then figure out how to answer them.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s where you get the most out of it

12:51
CeddyBReady: I haven’t looked closely because I’m lazy, but I’m assuming ZIPS has an opinion on Dunning moving from Chi-town to Texas. What say you?  Is Dunning still good now that he is in Texas?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s fine iether way

12:51
CeddyBReady: I’ll take the under on the Pirates’ HRs at 49.5

12:51
Guest: In the top 100, Edwards is above Padlo, but Padlo is above Edwards on the 2021 projection. I’m assuming it’s a length of time factor, so which does the top 100 take into account: years of team control vs career vs next year?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s just career

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t hae it front of me, but it’s likely one has a longe rprojected peak

12:51
Dave: With the DH gone from the NL, does it have any effect on the number of projected innings from NL starters?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not for me, no

12:52
The Pain and the Smell: If the over/unders for Ohtani are set at 100 innings pitched and 450 plate appearances, what are you taking?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Under and over

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s an injury risk until proves otherwise!

12:52
Dee Arby: Dan, he’s our man, if he can’t do it, who else can?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Lots of people I’m sure!

12:52
Mr. Fister: What would be your ideal lineup allignment if you managed the Blue Jays?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One spot for each player on the field, with the DH replacing the pitcher.

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Otherwise the umpire gets mad!

12:53
Mr. Fister: Is Thomas Szapucki a real person, or does he just show up on lists once in a while?  Will he ever pitch, anywhere?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For a long time, I wasn’t sure if James Kaprielian actually existed

12:53
Guest: Will the Pirates get to 50 HRs?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so

12:53
LFC Mike: I here analysts often say they are cautiously optimist about a player…but never have I heard they are carelessly negative about one…

12:54
CeddyBReady: As an aspiring data analyst that recently got a job doing analytics, learn query languages.  Catching up on that has been the hardest part for me.  I wish I had been interested in it as a yoof.

12:54
Mr. Fister: Okay, smart-ass, lineup order then…..

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not being a smartass would go against brand

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I *think* I’d go Biggio, Vlad, Teoscar, Springer, Bichette, Semien, Tellez, Gurriel, catcher

12:56
JO D: Dan any chance you have a time machine? keepers were due Monday & I kept Valdez. Ill bring it back I swear

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THE DAMAGE TO THE TIMELINE

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I let you save Valdez and all of a sudden COVID’s spike protein mutates weirdly

12:57
Cambodian Creamsicle: If you pour chili into an empty hotdog bun, does it become a chili sandwich?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, it’s a small chili sub

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless the chili has beans

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: in which case iit’s a small bean and meat stew sub

12:57
Inaccessible Rail: I thought that Kevin Goldstein’s “Can RBIs Matter?” was very interesting. I have to say that despite being a longtime analytics fan myself, when you’re watching a baseball game, context definitely matters, which is why I think that WPA is an underrated stat. I totally can’t relate to the positions Tony Wolfe & Brendan Gawlowski take in the article, even though I normally like their articles a great deal.

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a philosophical element to it. Kinda similar to the FIP vs. defense-adjusted ERA argument

12:59
CeddyBReady: Let’s stop giving Dan’s ass so much credit.  We all know the snark comes from the block-chain leftovers created by running thousands of simulations.

12:59
Appa Yip Yip: Biggio first? You know he can’t catch up to heat, right? Pitchers who hit 95 could just blow three fastballs by him and rack up an easy out.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 19 of his 24 career homers are against fastballs

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (low BA)

1:01
szakyl: Why aren’t sac flies included in WAR? Obviously they have positive value to a team. There is some clutch involved with having somebody on third, but also skill as a fly-ball hitter will hit them more often.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a weirdness about it in that it seems to solely be a residue of ability rather than a skill

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As counter-intuitive as it may seem at first, hitters don’t actually hit a higher percentage of deep flies in sac situations

1:02
Chili “No Beans” McCox: Better career, Gore or Pearson?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Gore, but this is a beer/tacos question

1:02
RJ: Any chance of getting minor league equivalencies on the site?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still working on it

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The minor league reconfig is a monkey wrench

1:02
Kate: What do you think Cleveland does with Amed Rosario and Gimenez to start the year?  Gimenez to the minors?  Both on the MLB roster splitting time?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think both on roster

1:02
Kate: Is Jordan Montgomery as easy a breakout candidate as his fielding indepentent metrics make him appear?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a good candidate and one of my upcoming gones!

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ones

1:03
Kate: Does Tony Gonsolin ever get a dedicated rotation spot in LA?  Or does he need to get traded for that to happen?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Injuries happen! He’ll likely get one eventually

1:03
Cambodian Creamsicle: What if you wrapped chili and fritos in a tortilla, and then placed it in a hot dog bun, and then put that in an oversized hard-shell. Would it be a frito burrito sub taco?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll say yes

1:03
JO D: Do you dabble in crypto currencies?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As an investment, it’s too volatile for me

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I don’t mind because ethically, I think it’s wasteful

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: mine

1:04
The Stranger: Is there any evidence that some hitters disproportionally feast on bad pitching and struggle against good pitching?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really. I’ve found little value to this info

1:04
CeddyBReady: Sounds like a carb load and a coronary.  FRITO BURRITO SUB TACO! Brought to you by Michael Bay.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you then put it between two piece of bread it’s a frito burrito sub taco sandwich

1:04
Cynthia: Can you explain how your projection percentiles work? The rate states are universally higher with higher percentiles, whereas I was thinking it would be possible for a higher percentile to be very lucky in 1 stat while being unlucky in another (e.g. 40th is .250/.330/.450 while 60th is .250/.340/.480)?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s absolutely true, but I’m trying to get an overall percentile *line* not the percentile for *each* stat

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Essentially, I model the results and then it calculates the most likely “fit” of those results

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Imagine a guy’s 60th percentile projection is .280/.350/.500 in 600 PA. There are a *lot* of configurations to get to the same performance

1:06
CeddyBReady: THEN if you wrap in wontons and fry its an EGGROLL! Yeah, just a weird ass eggroll.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think now we’re just doing the Taco Town commercial

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:08
CeddyBReady: On that note, I’m gonna go make some Chili Cheese Eggrolls because that sounds amazing.

1:08
Alabama Hot Pocket: If you then wrap it in dough and bake it, it would be a frito burrito sub taco sandwich calzone!

1:08
Alabama Hot Pocket: And then KFC would get ahold of it, and deep fry it with a cheeto crumb breading and serve it between two pieces of chicken and call it the *inhales* frito burrito sub taco sandwich calzone cheeto double-down chicken sandwich *exhales*

1:08
Dee Arby: Do you think biggio can learn to hit velo?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His whiff tendency isn’t THAT alarming. He misses breaking and offspeed stuff a lot more

1:08
Kate: Who do you like better for a breakout this year between Brendan Rodgers and Carter Kieboom?  Kind of similar profiles and both have had trouble getting traction / consistent PT.

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Kieboom simply became I’m more confident about the Nats using him

1:08
Kate: Any chance Hosmer gets platoon this year?  Pads have the bats to optimize their lineup pretty much every time out and it seems dumb to keep running him out there everyday when he’s so bad against lefties and there are so many guys that need PT.

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I’m not sure they have the chutzpah o do that

1:09
Alabama Hot Pocket: Cat update?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s sleeping on top of the computer

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia stomped off about 45 minutes ago when Justinian came into the office

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Last I saw, Mercutio was sleeping on the platform on the second highest level of the cat tree in the den

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And last I saw Constantine, he was in the kitchen waiting to ambush me when I get lunch after this

1:10
MadBum: Am I cooked?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I ain’t optimistic

1:10
JO D: which Phillie do you think has the best shot at crushing their zips projection? I would guess Kingery or Wheeler

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wheeler’s the most interesting

1:10
Touch ’em all Joe!: Do you buy that Vladito can fake 3B for a few years now that he’s a little leaner?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s possible. The team should explore it

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though the team’s config right now makes that hard

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I’d like to see him get some time there still

1:11
Guest: Everyone ripping on the Mariners and Mathers for service time but isn’t the Rays’ MO to keep prospects for a year or two in the minors after they’re “ready”.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most teams do that

1:11
Inaccessible Rail: If there’s a future chat without a link on the FG homepage, is there some other way to access it?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I usually tweet it out and the FG twitter tweets it at 11;40!

1:11
Ben: Have you ever done a ZiPS time warp on Brandon Webb after 2008? He was coming off 3 straight top-2 finishes in Cy Young voting, but would only compile -0.2 WAR the rest of his career.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I eventually will

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I did run the numbers for Zack Buchanan, so it’s not the freshest look right now

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My next one, at some point will be Jim Fregosi

1:13
C: How big of an effect do you anticipate non-conformity in stadium attendance rules on home/road splits.

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Insignificant

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found much value

1:13
Barbara: is the Ryzen provided by FG?  If not, do you write it off on your taxes?

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I get my own equipment.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used to write off 20% because I use 80% for personal really

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t rent my office to myself either because by IRS rules, you have to use it *exclusively* for work

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I own property outright, so haven’t had a mortgage payment in a long time, so standard deduction nowadays is preferable anyway

1:15
James: Your first chat using a Ryzen CPU! Is that the same company that also makes the Ryzen Fastball?

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: AMD never made baseballs, but it did make a hilariously awful bike

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The most random thing ever. A semiconductor company deciding to randomly brand a bicycle

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still some getting used to. The Ryzen aggressively boosts at low loads, so idle temperatures are higher, which takes time to get my head around

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because when I see my idle not at the normal 25-27, my brain gets mad

1:17
Nick Williams: Am I an interesting post-prospect?

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At this point, not really

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OH GOD

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oh, i hit header sizer

1:18
Morbo: I have to ask what Ryzen cpu did you get?

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 5900X

1:18
chaim bloom: what do the 90th percentile outcomes for the red sox w/l look like? if there’s no projection for it, can you give an educated guess? thank you dan!

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That will be in the previews!

1:18
Morbo: To be fair AMD just rebranded a terrible bike

1:18
Guest: Do you believe that Carter Kieboom will run away with the 3rd base job?

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, the job stays firmly on the Nats. If you run away with it, it’s no longer effective because you don’t have baseball games in which to use it

1:18
Appa Yip Yip: I like how it’s become hip amongst a certain subset of Jays fans (apparently myself included) to hate on Biggio, a player who has done nothing but produce at the big league level at an above average pace and who has never once been caught stealing, which is cool. I actually do not like this.

1:18
Al: Thanks for all the great work!  Have aging curves changed significantly in the last 10-15 years?  I *feel* like there are really salient examples (Tatis, Acuna, Soto) of guys crushing it right away.  Possible I’m just being distracted by those.  Less steroids, better training/development?  If it’s true what are the most likely causes?

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not *significantly*

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Players are aging slightly worse at advanced ages, which may be a PED factor

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: though it’s possible that it could be more stimulant than steroid

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since I can’t find a steroid dummy variable effect for players

1:19
Fat Guy in a Little Coat: Royals sign Holland, Davis, Dyson, and kick tires on Kennedy.  Royals fan facepalm.  Such a Royals series of events.  Fire Dayton Moore!

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re mediocre, but they’re interesting

1:19
Cambodian Creamsicle: Have you ever looked up Alabama Hot Pocket on urban dictionary? Gross

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t look up anything on urban dictionary ever

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: or google images

1:20
Morbo: 5900x is what I’m putting in my next pc more than i need but hey i wanna go fast

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When I have the RGB going fully, you can actually see my office window glowing from the street

1:20
“Cowboy” Joe West: Are you for or against robot strike zones?

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For

1:20
Mike: I noticed in your Bradley piece you talked about ZIPS factoring in Statcast metrics. When did you start using them for ZIPS and what did it have the highest impact on?

1:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Phased in over a number of years as I test the predictive value of various things

1:21
Booted: Are the ZiPS handedness splits available anywhere publicly? And how does ZiPS handle estime handedness PAs?

1:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re usually on the spreadsheet. I think — but am not positive — that we’ll have them on FG preseason too

1:21
C: Hi Dan, I was curious about the differences in ERA and FIP projections in Depth Charts. Does the difference only take into account the defense behind the pitchers, or does it also try to account for luck?

1:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re derived from the projection systems, so they come from whatever the projection systems do

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does a simple estimate of defense

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s worse for Avi

1:23
Veronica: pls tell me you only have 4gb of memory to go with that processor

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: lol

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 32 GB of 3600 MHz mem

1:23
Guest: Should the Yankees trade Miguel Andujar? If so, where would he go?

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t see the purpose – I don’t think he has a lot of trade value

1:23
Appa Yip Yip: If you went first to third and slid into the bag, would the helmet stay on your head?

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I once *broke* a helmet sliding in little league

1:24
J.D. Martin: Have you had any thought about making an article with Longenhagen about why his rankings vs. the ZiPS top prospects differ?  I remember Chris Mitchell having a similar article for KATOH prospect differences and think it’d be interesting to get an updated version

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Never really thought of it

1:24
Stella: please tell me Hampson will be a regular in Colorado this year

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a reserve

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure the Rockies will actually play Brendan Rodgers over Chris Owings

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think much of the Rockies, as you all may have surmised

1:25
Mike: When you phased in Statcast metrics did you notice it change anything in particular? Better with HR% of FB or something?

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BABIP modeling has been especially improved

1:25
Betty: thought on Bradley Jr to Brew Crew?  who’s the odd man out?

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually answered this above but forgot to post it

1:25
Stella: even after they trade Story?

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good chance they just let him go for nothing

1:26
Alabama Hot Pocket: Have you ever looked up Cambodian Creamsicle on urban dictionary?  Similar to a Turkish Snowcone

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DONT LOOK UP ANY OF THESE

1:26
Mazara: Why am I consistently bad?

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The mystery of life.

1:27
Cueto’s Shimmy: Could a bad team, say the Pirates or Orioles, put together a WS-favorite team if they had unlimited budgets and signed every free agent that would help them in a given offseason?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not WS-favorite

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to take off because I have a piece to complete!

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: See you all next week, same time. Thanks for checking the page for the chat link!

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The first half hour was molasses!

1:27
Neftali Feliz: I’m somehow still 32!





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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trentjreimers
3 years ago

Thanks for the chat Dan, I just have one quick question: is there a way to get ZiPS from 2019 going into 2020 still?