Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/23/26

Dan Szymborski: Here! Sorry, I had a weird problem getting int

thelwynn: The Mets are back, how long until they are in first place?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say. The Mets will get to first place if there’s sufficient time remaining in the season for another tragic downfall

Farhandrew Zaidman: Evergreen question – is Shohei a better hitter or pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: Probably still hitter

Judge, speed demon: It’s pretty funny Judge’s “slow” start is 9 HR and a 163 OPS+ with 5 steals. With Ohtani and Soto probably taking it easy because of pitching and injury, maybe he’s the next huge slugger with surprising SB totals (he usually does steal 10-15 a year)

Dan Szymborski: You gotta be pretty happy when THAT is your slow start

Dan Szymborski: It’s too bad for the injury this year as I was hoping Soto would be the weirdest 40/40 guy

SidDaAstrosKid: Howdy Dan, non baseball question cause I am hungry -> kolaches or bagels? IDK if kolaches are big where you are (I am in Texas) but I am a huge fan and want to evangelize about them cause they’re super good. Baseball question -> With the Mets having won a baseball game, have the Phillies taken their place as the worst team in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not really in direct competition though

Dan Szymborski: I’ve only had kolaches a few times, they’ve never been big anywhere I’ve lived

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard enough getting a proper bagel in Ohio

Dan Szymborski: To get a really proper bagel, you either have to go through the time and energy to make it yourself or you have to reserve bagels witih this dude in Yellow Springs not far from Chappelle’s house who makes bagels out of his kitchen

Rob A: The Mets won a game. April!

Sky Blue Skyline: Back of the napkin how much would it cost for the Brewers to extend all of Contreras, Turang, Misio, and Made?

Dan Szymborski: For the batch, certainly north of $200 million

Seth: What does ZiPS think of Samuel Zavala? He’s young for AA and has seemingly found something over the last few months of last year and continuing into this year. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has been sub-meh on Zavala, but the April 20th run just ifnished so let me check that real quick to see if it’s budged

Dan Szymborski: Has moved a bit

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: dangit

Dan Szymborski: https://ibb.co/TQWpKRz

Dan Szymborski:

The Hoffman: Is it time to drop Jeff Hoffman?

Dan Szymborski: In fantasy at least, probably, as he’s likely to lose save opportunities

Baseball learner: Who does Zips believe more likely to sustain their early season success, Ryan Weathers or Will Warren? Could it forecast who might get a bigger bump from moving to the pen?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is pretty close on both but sees Weathers as getting bigger bump in relief

Dan Szymborski: I’m personally a little more comfortable on Warren

TJ: What do you see as the issue with Austin Riley these days? Seems to have very little success against quality RHP, but he’s always kinda seemed overmatched against them. Mechanically and data-wise everything looks pretty similar to his heyday

Dan Szymborski: It’s weird, I’ve had the same issue seeing Riley. He doesn’t LOOk that much different and some of the weaknesses in his game are the same as when he was good

Dan Szymborski: It looks like he’s putting crappier stuff in play than in the past, but the data on that didn’t seem strong last I checked, and there’s some selection bias; since I know the results are worse, it can infect my observations

Natitude Adjuster: Any word about whether the Nats are trying to lock up Abrams/Wood for relatively long-term deals?  Or do you think they’ll flip them as they get close to their FA status?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard anything, but that doesn’t mean nothing’s going on

Dan Szymborski: I hear a lot of stuff, but I hear different types of stuff than, say, Jeff Passan hears

Dan Szymborski: I’m kind of a hybrid data journalist guy rather than a more traditional reporter, so I tend to talk less often with VPs/GMs and very rarely with managers, but a lot more often with the rank-and-file analytics staffers

Dan Szymborski: So I have a very good grasp on general approaches front offices take, but a poorer one on things like individual negotiations

Sal’s Mom: How much has Sal’s 3yr projection changed after his scorching start? I have to say, the 6 stolen bases are a big surprise

Dan Szymborski: Decently, but not as much as you would think as ZiPS was already positive on Stewart

Kyle: With the Lindor injury, did the Mets find a way to lose more playoff probability during a win than during the previous 12 losses?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a very mets thing to do

Guest: SUP, CAN I PLEASE KNOW MLB PREDICTABLE FACTORS FOR TEAM TO WIN

Dan Szymborski:

1. Be good at baseball
2. Don’t be a cursed team like the Mets

Chris: For the Astros starters, who do you have more confidence in Arrighetti or Lambert? Also, curious your take on Lambert K’s in majors when he hasn’t really shown that even in the minors.

Dan Szymborski: I would have said arrighetti at the start of the season, but even in a small sample size, Lambert *has* been really low contact

Dan Szymborski: and contact rate is significant *quickly*

Dan Szymborski: So maybe still not Lambert, but I’m intrigued

Dan Szymborski: if that 60% contact rate actually holds, that’s really interesting

Dan Szymborski: but still a big if

The Oriole Bird: This O’s team feels like the most .500 team ever.  I bet they’ll bounce between 1-2 games above or below .500 all year.  If SP help is needed, do you think they’ll be making a splash at the trade deadline if they’re still in the hunt?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the contours of the race really

Dan Szymborski: Don’t forget the O’s have been missing some interesting players

Dan Szymborski: 1/2 of Rutschman and all of Westburg and Holliday

Dan Szymborski: (people are too quick to write off Holliday)

Alec: Not much of a question but good for Peter Lambert, a young SP with Colorado who then heads to NPB for a season doesn’t sound like the roadmap for a success story, but two strong starts so far and seems to at least have the chance to hold a rotation spot down for awhile with Houston’s injuries. Hope he keeps it up!

Taijuan Walker: I just got released by the Phillies this morning. Are there any teams who would be interested in picking me up?

Dan Szymborski: Beer league softball teams need someone who can throw batting practice

Fish Fan: So like, April, but boy am I feeling vindicated for my love of Otto Lopez.

Randy Milligan Fan: I asked ChatGPT how you could improve ZiPS… and here is the first sentence of the response: “Improving ZiPS is a bit like trying to tune a Formula 1 car that’s already winning races–you’re not fixing something broken, you’re chasing marginal gains in a noisy, partially unknowable system.”

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t compliment ZiPS by calling it a Formula 1 car, but it is accurate that you chase marginal gains

War2D2: Dan! What does ZiPS think about Murakami ROS? Infinite early-season caveats applied of course, being on pace for a 65 HR/65 single/zero-other-hits season is all kinds of fun.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has moved up a bit. Remember, ZiPS was already the most confident one

Sam: how do projection systems account for injury? They all seemed to think that Wheeler would get to ~90% of his previous value while I think most people talking about the injury would be happy with 60% return (e.g. 3 WAR instead of 5) given the velocity declines expected (and now demonstrated in the minors) with the injury

Dan Szymborski: awkwardly

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS know GENERAL injury categories

Dan Szymborski: like it knows if someone missed 162/TJ

Dan Szymborski: or 120/shoulder

hit tool risk: think maybe teams overthought the Murakami risks or is it still too early

Dan Szymborski: Possibly both

Farhandrew Zaidman: Jose Soriano, Cy Young winner? the knuckle curve really seems to have stepped his game way up.

Dan Szymborski: He’s been legitimately excellent

Beano: Now that Walker has a couple of saves, is there some stability in the Giants bullpen or is it still Kilian, Winn, Miller, Walker in the mix?
And in DC- is Gus Varland the “guy”?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s still chaos mode

Beano: How long a leash does R Sasaki have in LA? Surely they have better MLB ready pitchers… Why not send him down to find himself?

Dan Szymborski: Not a lot. WALKS WILL HAUNT

Dan Szymborski:

Trot Nixon’s Dirty Hat: Do you see a real path for Payton Tolle to remain in the Red Sox rotation, or is this just a spot start until they lose an SP for the season or trade someone?

Dan Szymborski: If it works out, they’ll find a justification to keep doing it

Well-Beered Englishman: Mahler 7 is underrated

Dan Szymborski: It MIGHT be

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s a rather disjointed work, especially compared to most Mahler symphonies

Dan Szymborski: I don’t mind that so much, but I also find that if I’m picking an individual Mahler symphony, 7 is one of the less likely ones I pick

Jon: How we feeling about the Royals’ new stadium plans Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Like most, they’re terrible financial decisions for the community

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Dan, Dan, the RPG, piano playing Cat-man. Does ZIPS think all 5 NL central teams will finish above .500? A strong NL central was not on my bingo card this year.

Dan Szymborski: No, but it’s fun while it happens

Well-Beered Englishman: What is a now completely meaningless, years-old piece of team gossip you heard?

Dan Szymborski: That Javy Lopez had a love of fart jokes that would rival a five-year-olds. I heard this from MULTIPLE sources back in the day

Farhandrew Zaidman: Which season is closer to PCA’s true talent level, 2025 (109 wRC+) or 2026 (79 wRC+)?

Dan Szymborski: 109, but it’s still likely in th e middle

Baseball learner: Follow up question: what traits does zips look for in which starters would improve as relievers? Is it about walks and command vs strikeouts? Is there a way of predicting which pitchers will see bumps to their velocity and which starters are already maxing out?

Dan Szymborski: Contact rate is relevant, and ZiPS is less concerned about walk issues, which tend to fade for guys who convert. ZiPS also looks for guys with a really narrow repertoire as they’re the type that are most stretched as starters

Farhandrew Zaidman: I know the draft isn’t specifically your jam, but should the White Sox go position player (Roch) or pitcher (Flora) at 1.1?

Dan Szymborski: I think they go with Roch

Dan Szymborski: They HAVE to know that they’re better at slapping together marginal pitchers than developing hitters

Dan Szymborski: right?

20longyears: Because April, the Pirates currently have 3 of the most valuable 15 National League pitchers by WAR, and none of them are named Paul. At the end of the season, the Pirates will have ____ of the top 15 NL pitchers.

Dan Szymborski: a number from 0 to 15

War2D2: Speaking of the O’s, I had the game on yesterday while working and was struck by just how slow all of their players looked. I have no idea if Statcast backs this up, but every one of them looked like they were running uphill wearing a backpack full of cinder blocks.

Dan Szymborski: Weighted by competitive runs, team sprint speed

Dan Szymborski: SPRINT SPEED   WSH Total 27.87188329   MIL Total 27.81158537   PHI Total 27.737   BOS Total 27.57945619   MIA Total 27.51157025   PIT Total 27.47879656   SD Total 27.28575851   CIN Total 27.28445378   COL Total 27.28403909   TB Total 27.2639881   DET Total 27.22151515   Average 27.09222034   CWS Total 27.0862963   AZ Total 27.08421053   LAA Total 27.04128788   CHC Total 26.99440994   BAL Total 26.98825503   TEX Total 26.97665505   ATH Total 26.96832298   SF Total 26.95479876   KC Total 26.93630137   HOU Total 26.8994709   NYM Total 26.8918239   ATL Total 26.80934844   LAD Total 26.79681979   STL Total 26.78741722   MIN Total 26.71611722   NYY Total 26.70794224   CLE Total 26.5105919   TOR Total 26.48495575   SEA Total 26.47389831

Dan Szymborski: O’s rank 16th

Alex: I’m pondering a fantasy trade right now and can’t decide if I’m going crazy – I’m a cardinals fan and I’m thinking about seiya suzuki or jordan walker as the last piece I’m receiving in a trade. Do you buy Jordan being better than Seiya for the rest? I know ZiPS was really down on Jordan this season pre-swing change.

Dan Szymborski: If things are going really well already, Suzuki, but if I need some upside, Walker

Chip: Are you a believer in Jacky Cags? The dude’s batted-ball data are elite, but the results aren’t there and he strikes out a ton. Small sample size, or just not that good?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still, but we’ll see

Fish Fan: I still feel so burned by the Eric Thames thing that I don’t know if I’ll ever trust the foreign/returning player hot start until like after the ASB

Rob A: Zips have any interest in Lucas Giolito for their 15 team mixed pts dynasty?

Dan Szymborski: 15 team? Not really

Farhandrew Zaidman: Are you as far out on Giolito as the industry seems to be? $3 mil, prorated, and signed in late April seems like a “last shot as a pro” type of contract.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not so much that Giolito is really good, but that he’s exactly what the Padres needed right now

Dan Szymborski: If you’ve been walking through the wilderness, starving, and see an Olive Garden, Olive Garden is fricking amazing

Brew Thirty: Made is ripping up AA with a nearly 17% BB rate and 13% K rate. Given the state of affairs on the left side of the Brewers infield, do you think he could force their hand and make an extreme jump to the bigs this year?

Dan Szymborski: They COULD

Bob: Wait, you live near Dave Chappelle? How has there not been a FG and/or ZiPS crossover? Ohio ain’t that big or have that much going on!

Dan Szymborski: My sister does, but I live South of Dayton

Dan Szymborski: you see him around the area and nobody makes a big deal of it and goes about their business

Chicago: Wind blowing out to Left at Wrigley today, high scoring game ahead?

Dan Szymborski: Havne’t you heard the old saying?

Dan Szymborski: “Wind blowing out, Ryno’s got clout, in from the lake, Sanderson’s cake.”

Dan Szymborski: OK, that may not be an old saying

Bob: Any thoughts of a mid-season ZiPS Top 100 prospect list or even just something exclusively looking at biggest in season risers and fallers? I know you do something similar for MLB players and maybe include some high level prospects, but this would be a deeper dive. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve thought about it, though I usually have a lot of midseason stuff

Dan Szymborski: Depends if there’s sufficient itnerest

Dan Szymborski: I want to do stuff readers want, after all you guys pay for my stuff

Guest: Someone just offered me Yordan for Gunnar. I have Elly at SS and use Gunnar in my DH spot. I need doubles and average. Im low on those. Would you make that deal

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Farhandrew Zaidman: What percentage of MLB’s total position player pool were originally signed/drafted as a SS, C, or CF (i.e. the ‘premium’ positions)?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know the percentage, but it’s gotta be large

Dan Szymborski: especially SS

Dan Szymborski: at any time, the best 2B/3B/SS prospects are the top SS prospect list

The Grateful Red: Assuming full health elsewhere, the Reds will have a top X rotation in baseball when Hunter Greene returns?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say 7th

Izzy: I would think those Brewers would cost twice as much… shouldn’t each one get over $100m? Maybe not Miz, but Turang and Made should both be $150+m.

Dan Szymborski: Made could go up quickly, but he’s also a AA guy for like two weeks

Farhandrew Zaidman: Surely Sugano can’t last with a sub 4 ERA with half his starts in Coors….right? RIGHT?!

Dan Szymborski: right

Oaktown Blues: I love the new individual game simulator in the Lab – any chance we might see ZiPS (ROS) as a projection option there in the future?

Dan Szymborski: there’s no reason that there couldn’t be

Dan Szymborski: since a lot of the bones come the batter vs. pitcher matchup tool I wrote for David

Uncle Spike: I second a mid season ZIPS Top 100.  That would be VERY interesting to us fantasy baseballers.

Dan, Man: Dan, I’m sad again, man. But it’s not your fault

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry you are sad, but pleased it’ snot my doing

Brew Thirty: Given projections are meant to be a baseline for possible outcomes, do you feel ZiPs is closer to the floor or ceiling for a player? In other words, do you generally feel stronger about players possibly exceeding ZiPs or falling short?

Dan Szymborski: Ideally, it should be in the middle or I’ve calibrated wrong!

William O’Brien: If Shohei decided that he wants to have a sub-1 ERA this year, we should probably just assume he’s going to do it at this point, right?  …….I think I’m only partially joking.

Dan Szymborski: I’m still waiting for the year he goes into the spring and says “Fuck it, I’m a gold glove SS now. Also, I now kick 80 yard field goals perfectly so I won’t be available on Sundays”

Raises hand: FWIW, I would also love a mid-season update to ZiPS Top 100.

Dan, Man: I generally hate when baseball sites touch on non-baseball topics but he world seems dark and idk who is supposed to lead us out of here

Dan Szymborski: My chats definitely do more than baseball

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t really do politics if THAT is what you want

Dan Szymborski: Fundamentally, I detest the cartoonish worldview of wingnut Twitter users and the cartoonish worldview of moonbat Blue Sky users, and most people who aren’t one of them also aren’t very online. So there’s no purpose for me getting into that

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got nothing to offer that Matts Welch or Yglesias wouldn’t say better than me

Jon: Greatest career ever: Comedian? Fans are chill, you make a ton of money, your goal is to make people laugh, tour however you like

Dan Szymborski: There seems to be a lot of substance abuse though

Dan Szymborski: and that comes froM SOMETHING after all

Insert Witty Name Here: You want to do what we want?  I want you to have an hour long podcast with Murray Chass while eating at skyline.

Dan Szymborski: Chass is one of only two people in baseball that I would not break bread with.

Dan Szymborski: (I won’t say the other one, an ex player in the HoF)

Dan Szymborski: I still think he should have had his BBWAA card taken away for the Mike Piazza stuff

Dan Szymborski: He used his credentials to analyze a player’s naked body. That’s not what we’re in the clubhouse to do.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s that kind of behavior that was unfairly used to keep women reporters from being in the clubhouse

Dan Szymborski: That was an abuse of the credential, and he should have had it removed, and kicked off the BBWAA membership list as a result. It was WAY WAY worse than lebatard’s HOF vote

Dan Szymborski: If he were still an active member of the BBWAA and working professionally, I would be actively pursuing this to the best of my ability. But he is no longer a cardholder (except for the lifetime one you get after a number of years) and I think that he’s off the grid with problems specific to the very elderly

Dan Szymborski: so no longer in public life.

Jon: We can add emojis to your posts now??

Dan Szymborski: I’ve had that option clicked forever!

matt w: Dan! Did you know that on April 3, the Pirates and the Blue Jays were briefly both at .500 for their all-time franchise record? (By my calculations.)
I’m surprised that this didn’t make a bigger splash among baseball trivia mongers!

Dan Szymborski: I did a projection for that in a mailbag question last year

Dan, Man: Is Fangraphs a front to take on the antichrist?

Dan Szymborski: If it is, they haven’t let me in on it

Oaktown Blues: Do you feel that the level of crazy of the moon bat Blue Sky users approaches the level of crazy of the wingnut Twitter users? Because I…don’t, to put it mildly

Oaktown Blues: (sorry if that’s too overtly political)

Dan Szymborski: In certain ways, yes

Dan Szymborski: I think the Blue Sky users tend to be better educated about the things they’re angry about, so I also expect them to know better

Dan Szymborski: And there’s a pack mentality on Blue Sky that’s absolutely brutal

Dan, Man: Sorry for the poop. It’s experimental

Dan Szymborski: Everybody poops

Dan: With the padres sale I calculated they spend 5.7% of their value on players (including CBT tax but not benefits) do you think this is close to the right amount for the industry? It’s higher than an average American company but not for a company who’s product is also their labor.

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t seem drastically off

Dan, Man: Matt Welch or Walsh?

Dan Szymborski: Welch. I sure as hell hope id din’t accidentally type Walsh

Dan Szymborski: It’s funny, Welch is one of a number of people in the political space that I mostly know from baseball things

Dan Szymborski: I know Welch as an Angels blogger

Dan Szymborski: Josh Kraushaar I still associate with him being a teenager passionate about the Orioles

Dan Szymborski: and I know Jonathan Bernstein as a Giants usenet contributor. And Ted Frank as a White Sox fan regular on rec.sport.baseball in the 90s

Dan Szymborski: Jeff Blehar as Esoteric on BTF

Sal’s Mom: Well, who’s on the other end of the spectrum from Chass for you? As in, a BBWAA guy who you’d love to break bread with and is arguably beyond reproach?

Dan Szymborski: As in my feuding with? I don’t really have lots of feuds believe it or not!

Dan Szymborski: I’m preetty harmless

Dan Szymborski: I’d love to really get to spend some time hanging with Bernie Miklasz though in old school Baltimore areas

Dan Szymborski: I’ve gotten to talk with him a lot, but I’ve never really gotten to hang with the guy

Dan Szymborski: I have a lot of random engagements with colleagues that I really treasure

Dan Szymborski: my favorite plane ride of all time was a Hartford–>Chicago flight. I swapped my business class seat for one in coach since Christina Kahrl was on the flight, and we made star wars jokes for 2 hours

Dan Szymborski: Also had a fun car ride where I gave a lift to Joe Kay, Steve Gardner, and Jerry Crasnick, where we had dueling Android/Iphone directions arguing with each other and my goddamn check engine light came on, which was embarrassing

Scared in SD: Hi Dan. I think our cat is out to get me. What should i do??

Dan Szymborski: Keep your will in order

Dan, Man: Until the antichrist gets here, I think the plan is to be healthy, protect your family and enjoy baseball. Right?

Dan Szymborski: I guess so?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe not burn any bridges with the antichrist, since I like to hedge bets

Dan, Man: Prediction: Cam Smith gets some down ballet MVP votes

Dan Szymborski: What is a down ballet? Adolphe Adam?

Dan: I wouldn’t judge you for your check engine light being on unless you had been ironically bragging about your mechanic skills right before hand

Dan Szymborski: Turned out to be the goddamn gas cap

Dan Szymborski: When I gto home I ran the scanner and then checked the cap

Farhandrew Zaidman: Just putting this out there – Adam Ottavino does daily streams for less than 1000 views and the content is way, way better than anything else coming out of the recently retired youtube show space that we’re inundated with now.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t realize he was doing that

Farhandrew Zaidman: Can we form the committee to change the rule for Logan Gilbert wearing a line drive in his jersey to an out? It wasn’t intentional, ball never touched the ground, and came to rest in the fielder’s possession (loosely defined). That’s an out, dawg.

Dan Szymborski: No, I think it’s fine, because to allow other equipment catches encourages weird things

War2D2: Down ballet is clearly Swan Lake

Petey Bienel: Ronny Cruz. Just needed to be mentioned

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, it’s time for me to head out.

Dan Szymborski: Sorry for late start, so we had a late finish to compensate!