Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/6/23 (12:30 PM ET)

Dan Szymborski: And here we are, for a slightly time shifted chat!

Guest: Joey Wiemer = Adolis Garcia 2.0?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure that really fits. Garcia was older but with a better track record

Dan Szymborski: Wiemer’s .800ish total OPS in AAA last year is actually quite underwhelming for the offensive environment he played in

Dan Szymborski: So I wouldn’t get excited about a handful of games

Dan Szymborski: Or are you just trying to get me to answer April!

Guest: it doesn’t seem reasonable to me that mookie betts would have a 1.5 Def, and acuna would have -0.7. i can accept that betts is a superior fielder, but how is the spread so big so soon? especially since acuna has made every play that’s come his way and has a few assists. what does into that calculation?

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re reacting a bit too much to stats that have a lot of volatility and will go up and down over the course of the season

Dan Szymborski: Defensive numbers are always especially volatile.

Dan Szymborski: Counting a relative measure like defense isn’t like counting homers.

Dan Szymborski: The homers don’t go down.

Dan Szymborski: As for individual plays, it’s hard for me to dissect since I haven’t seen all their defensive plays and even if I had, I am not blessed with an eidetic memory

Zack: When did Gleyber Torres turn into Mickey Mantle? I love SSS

Dan Szymborski: Be careful about loving SSS, because you’re only one letter off from loving this

Dan Szymborski:

Antonio: Are there any specific kind of showers which are more predictive of May flowers?

Dan Szymborski: Printemps

Tommy: What do the Yankees do with the (likely) Donaldson injury? Call up Peraza and slide him to third?

Dan Szymborski: LeMahieu is the best option and playing Tony Phillips is what he’s around to do. For an extended injury — I don’t think Donaldson’s there this time unless I missed an update this morning — I think it depends what else is going on in the roster at the time

Bill: Should the Yankees stick with Brito? That changeup is devastating but I’m worried about how he’d fare against a right heavy lineup

Dan Szymborski: He actually had pretty decent spare starter projections coming into the season!

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry too much yet – while he had a reverse platoon split in the minors last year, you also want to be very careful about how you use short term platoon splits

Dan Szymborski: They’re more even looking at this career as a whole

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects righties to hit 252/299/385 off him and lefties 258/325/441 – smaller splits than average but still present

Dallas: Good afternoon- if Henry Davis doesn’t stick at catcher long term, how would his FV change if he played say RF, and are you confident in his ability to hit at the major league level?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ want to speculate on our FV for him and how it would change since I woudln’t be the one doing that

Dan Szymborski: BUT

Dan Szymborski: I would definitely be far lower on him as a prospect

Dan Szymborski: Yes, he hit in high-A ball, but in a five run a league environment at 22, you BETTER hit at high-A

Dan Szymborski: I’m certainly not confident until he shows he can hit in the high minors against competition his own age

Antonio: That reporter who was always trying to get the scoop on Teenaged Mutant Ninja Turtles…was that Tyler O’Neill’s sister?

Dan Szymborski: aunt

Phil: What’s your guess – Tyler Wells to bullpen, or Grayson Rodriguez back to AAA when Kyle Bradish returns?

Dan Szymborski: I think it depends on how well he pitches

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure the O’s would like to wring out an extra year of service time from him

Phil: Is Shohei a real human?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but a future more highly evolved human who came here by time machine

Danny: Usually a slow starter, Cole looks locked in already. Finally getting Cy Cole?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly off to a damn good start.

Dan Szymborski: And he was already one of the contenders.

Debbie: The biggest threat to the Yankees AL East crown in 2023 will be ______

Dan Szymborski: not winning a sufficient number of games to have the highest total among the AL East competitors.

JJ: Did you take any regular season wins over/under this year?

Dan Szymborski: Arizona over, Dodgers under

TomBruno23: This Cardinal rotation…

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly not a good sign that the ERA leader of the rotation allowed seven walks

Dan Szymborski: But they’ll be fine in the long run

Farhandrew Zaidman: True or False: Dustin May is unhittable when he’s landing his breaking ball for strikes.

Dan Szymborski: True

TomBruno23: Can Jordan Walker keep up his 147 wRC+ all season, and does he have to in order to make up for his baserunning and defense?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not, but as I’ve talked about a lot, his upside is massive.

Patrick: PLEASE for the love of everything good and holy in this world explain the IKF in center thing. Doesn’t it seem like the Yankees are for, whatever reason, just preparing for the worst worst case scenario? What extra value are you getting out of him out there unless 80 percent of your outfielders get hurt?

Dan Szymborski: That’s why he was on my breakouts list!

Dan Szymborski: WALKER NOT IKF

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see anything wrong with preparing for worst-case scenarios by seeing what your roster can do

Dan Szymborski: Steve Pearce was never going to play second full time, but it was useful to know that he could fake it well enough to be an emergency option

Inaccessible Rail: Should the Mets start the sell-off now? Or wait until the trading deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Very cruel

Jesse: Just read the pitch-modeling article. Is Ohtani the most talented player to ever play the game?

Dan Szymborski: I hate to make such a sweeping declaration in an off-the-cuff comment

Dan Szymborski: but he’s certainly among them

Dan Szymborski: it’s damn hard to be a major league hitter OR a major league pitcher and to be good at both is very rare

Suzie: How the Rays be doin this?

Dan Szymborski: They have a really good rotation

Dan Szymborski: Even with Glasnow out

Dan Szymborski: It’s also the closest thing to a traditional rotation the Rays have had in years

Dan Szymborski: McClanahan-Springs-Glasnow-Rasmussen-Eflin-Fleming is a really good top six

Chuckie: You expecting Franmil to return to his Clevland glory?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

Dan Szymborski: I was hopeful he could turn it around with the Cubs but he didn’t

Dan Szymborski: And it’s not like the Royals are particularly clever.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Dodgers could do it!

Guest: Mitch Keller has the best slider (the sweeper) in baseball this year according to stuff + (small sample size), but it was also top 5ish in the 2nd half last year when he came back from his stint in the pen. Is this, along with the new cutter, going to finally set him up for success when he settles in on the right pitch mix?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a possibility. I was torn between him and Contreras for my breakouts list, and went with Contreras since Keller was a full season guy who had a good year in 2022

Charlie: How would you rank these low-end AL closers? LeClerc, Esteves, Lange, May?

Dan Szymborski: Probably May above Lange

Dan Szymborski: Leclerc is the most interesting of them

Choochie: You still a believer in Kyle Bradish breaking out this season?

Dan Szymborski: Did I talk a lot about him being a big breakout? I don’t remember that, but I’m also getting old

Dan Szymborski: Though I think he should be a good mid-rotation guy

Dan Szymborski: and I’m less worried about him than most of their non-prospect starters

Jesse: Did the Mets make a mistake not having Vientos or Baty on their opening day roster?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t necessarily think so. You want them playing full time and they just weren’t going to do that in game 1

Angelos(er): The more that I see how robust the Orioles line-up is, and how they invested nothing in pitching in the off-season, the more I want to raid the Baltimore Aquarium for chum, cover Angelos with it, and toss him in a shark tank

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite disappointed

Dan Szymborski: Of course, one of the pitchers I wanted to see the O’s go after was Rodon, which isn’t look great right now!

Those who Franco are not lost: What team would you suspect will end up with the biggest differential from the Zips projections?

Dan Szymborski: Well, one of the top teams will certainly have a big differential because projections rarely project a mean projection of 100 wins

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox, if they stay healthy, COULD crush their projections

Dan Szymborski: Simply because ZiPS is baking in a lot of injury risk because it hate hate HATES their PLan Bs basically everywhere

Champ: Most likely injured starter to make an impact this year: McCullers, Skubal, Montas?

Dan Szymborski: I would guess Montas unless he has a setback

Toolsy: How concerned should be with Alex Manoah’s drop in velocity?

Dan Szymborski: A bit.

Dan Szymborski: Not TOO much

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible that it was the product of adjustments made after a pretty lousy first start

Dan Szymborski: Now, if he *continues* to be missing two mph from the spring I’d get increasingly concerned

Dan: How quickly will ROS models like ZiPS adjust to the more aggressive/increased stolen base environment?

Dan Szymborski: Not super quickly as it still won’t know the full reason why

Liz: What is your favorite or least favorite MLB.TV ad? Do you like Baseball Zen?

Dan Szymborski: After watching a bunch of MLB.TV games, your brain starts to blot them out

Dan Szymborski: which is good so you don’t lose your mind

Dan Szymborski: I still have flashbacks to 15 years ago to HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY! ads during the palyoffs

Kyle: Harvey Dent – can we trust him? (College Humor throwback)

Sirras: Who is the best character on Parks and Rec?

Dan Szymborski: Like that’s even up for debate

Dan Szymborski:

Daniel: Has Alex Bregman actually decline from his 2018-9 peak? Is he ever getting close to the ~155-60 wRC+ numbers he put up then?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible that is the case

Dan Szymborski: People underestimate how many players simply just peak at 23-35

Dan Szymborski: err 23-25

Dan Szymborski: obviously most players peak between 23-35!

Jimmy5: Has Aroldis Chapman sipped from the fountain of youth and regained velocity and suddenly become a force again?  If so will the Royals be smart and use him as a closer to showcase him as a trade chip later.

Dan Szymborski: If he pitches well, I doubt teams will care what inning he was in. Chapman is pretty much a known quantity

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like the Royals have to pitch him in the ninth to get teams to think “Hey, this Chapman dude’s pitching well, I wonder if he can be a closer?”

Walla Walla Ron Washington: What’s the first name of Aubrey Plaza’s character on Parks & Rec, again?

Dan Szymborski: Janet. Janet Snakehole.

Walla Walla Ron Washington: Upon what does one cook one’s burgers and dogs during a cookout?

Dan Szymborski: Something that keeps it from falling into a heat source

Oaktown Blues: Did you play Breath of the Wild, and are you excited for Tears of the Kingdom?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t actually

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never been the biggest Zelda player

Dan Szymborski: Not that I dislike those games or an ything

Dan Szymborski: It’s just I tended to miss them

druidiful: Just wanted to check to see if you knew what month it currently is?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I do. Mid-Germinal.

Where in the World is Diego Castillo?: What was the name of that Simon & Garfunkel song, you know the one, something Come She Will?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m not great with lyrics

Sirras: Narvaez out 8-9 weeks per MLBTR. Would you expect Nido or Alvarez to get most of the starts while Omar is out?

Dan Szymborski: I would sure as hell hope so

Hire Joe Morgan?: Is Methods of Rationality among your top two favorite Harry Potter books?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what that is

Dan Szymborski: But I DID have the neural network awhile back generate some new Hogwarts instructors

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And slightly out of date, but Hogwarts classes for MLB managers

Dan Szymborski:

Where in the World is Diego Castillo?: Bronson Arroyo must be in the conversation about most talented player ever because he could sure shred the guitar.

Dan Szymborski: There’s also Bo Jackson

JB: Will there be a Cataclysm Classic and will you play it?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really play the classic versions

Gunnar down: Is Gunnar Henderson already a flop or just dealing with a hand injury?

Dan Szymborski: How dare you.

Dan Szymborski: How do I ban your IP?

Broken Bat: Dan, what’s your take on Marmol publicly taking O’Neil on? Were there several instances of perceived lack of hustle, or is Marmol trying to force the Cardinals to trade an outfielder to create more roster flexibility for himself?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say since I’m not *in* the clubhouse so not privy to everything

Dan Szymborski: Though my general belief is that even if it makes things harder for people in my profession, from the team’s point of view, it’s rare that internal things shouldn’t be internal

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t want Marmol to do anything but take a non comment stance

North of the Border: Jose Berrios – what do?

Dan Szymborski: S orry

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Do you say “Goo-gull” or “Goog-ull”?

Dan Szymborski: The former

Wayne Threatzky: Scale of 1-10 (10 being perennial Cy Young contender), how do you feel about Wesneski’s future?

Dan Szymborski: 6

RAY: is this chat clocked like the new rule

Dan Szymborski: Ha!

Dan Szymborski: I try to answer questions very quickly

Dan Szymborski: Not because I want to be inaccurate but the more questions I answer, the fewer disappointed people with unanswered questions.

Dan Szymborski: So I tend to be biased in favor of questions that can be answered quickly. This isn’t a great format for asking questions that would require 15 minutes of work to answer properly

Twins Win: Yes it is only the first week but the results from the Twins rotation are fantastic, especially considering the past injuries to Mahle and Maeda.  Top 5/10 rotation possible or do injuries derail the season again?

Dan Szymborski: I think 10-15 is fairer as there is some injury risk

Guest: You playing MLB The Show? I haven’t gotten it yet because it seems like they really haven’t done anything new with RTTS. It could use an overhaul.

Dan Szymborski: Not this year as I haven’t gotten a PS5

Dan Szymborski: Probably will sometime this month now that you can just purchase them

Chip: I saw a lot of punditry saying that TOR would win the ALE on the back of their rotation over NYY. How many games of Toronto’s pitching shenanigans will be enough for them to admit that that was a silly projection?

Dan Szymborski: Well, a couple more gothroughs and I’d be worried

Dan Szymborski: But it depends on the degree

ROBOCOP: Well sh**…now I need to have another child just so I can name them Buttertooth

daro: does boston have it to be competitive in 2-3 years?

Dan Szymborski: Sure. They’re not THAT bad a team

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes people talk about them like they’re the Reds or something

Alan: Team O’Neill or Team Marmol?

Dan Szymborski: I try to take a step back from things like this

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t even consider myself on Team MLBPA during the lockout

Dan Szymborski: I cannot speak for every writer out there, but I do *not* consider myself an advocate for anything other than truth and logic.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t think I’m qualified to make judgments on personal matters like O’Neill and Marmol

Dan Szymborski: Nor do I think anyone is interested in seeing that from me]

Chris from Catonsville: Should I be rooting for the O’s to promote Westburg and/or Ortiz? That’s only going to happen if Mateo and Urias don’t hit, and I feel uncomfortable rooting against the laundry. How much better would the team realistically be with the wave of prospect INFers and when will they be up?  (not in April!)

Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer them playing full time SOMEWHERE. Having them up to sit isn’t helpful

Dan Szymborski: The Frazier signing really confused me

Most talented: It might actually be Jackie Robinson given how many sports he played.

Dan Szymborski: AND BO JACKSON

SP help: Wesneski or Pfaaft?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit more confident than Pfaadt though for fantasy purposes, Wesneski has the distinct advantage of already *being* in the rotation

Johnny two shoes: You need a profile picture with less forehead…Or more hair

Dan Szymborski: I’m always had a high hair line and since I’ll be 45 in two months, that situation is not going to improve.

Dan Szymborski: On the plus side, I haven’t had a single gray hair on the top of my head

Dan Szymborski: If I let my beard grow out, I do get an occasional snow white hair

Dan Szymborski: and I get the occasional brilliant white hair in my crazy old man eyebrows

Dan Szymborski: Which are already extremely blonde for me

Dan Szymborski: (I’m naturally kind of reddish dark blonde with my beard generally growing out as straight-up red)

Darin Ruf House: Is this the lightening round?  Yes, it must be the lightening round.  OK, here we go.  Please give us your 5 point plan for each MLB team on how they should manage player development over the next 5-10 years.

Dan Szymborski: That’s the molasses round

Pawnee = Oakland As Destination?: what would your walk up song be?

Dan Szymborski: easy one!

Dan Szymborski:

Darin Ruf House: Was it just that the MLB was acting sooooo stupid during the lockout that you criticized them more than the MLBPA?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. I tried to be as fair as I could. If I can only see the players’ interests and not the owners’ interests, then I’m not fully doing my job

Johnny two shoes: Scab

Farhandrew Zaidman: Can you give a 30 second schpeel on your Under for the Dodgers? I think they’re at 96.5

Dan Szymborski: There’s significant downside risk i nthe rotation

David: What did you think of G rayson yesterday?

Dan Szymborski: I thought he got his shit together really nice after the first inning

Barnlesbee Portugrazb III: Invention you want to see in real life?

I’ll go first. Reverse bobbleheads… the heads stay still and its the bodies that bobble!

Dan Szymborski: holodeck!

Darin Ruf House: Dan would not have a walk up song.  He would run to the plate, like a little Charlie Hustle.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t like running even when I was younger, mostly in shape and played sports!

Dan Szymborski: I’d be more of a Billy Saunter than a Charlie Hustle

Darin Ruf House: Pitch clock is working like gang busters, the shift ban and other new rules seem neutral to fine.  What additional new on-the-field rule would you implement?

Dan Szymborski: Angel Hernandez Lava Pit

Hire Joe Morgan?: Sorry!  Methods of Rationality is a HP novel originally written as fan fiction by Eliezer Yudkowsky.  Premise is everything is the same except Harry was raised by a rationalist and enters Hogwarts with a grasp of the scientific method.  He proceeds to attempt to understand magic and things proceed.  Awesomely.  I was subversively attempting to get you to comment on AI issues.

Dan Szymborski: Ah

Dan Szymborski: Oh, Ohtani time machine proof. This is him arriving to sign his contract with the Angels.

Dan Szymborski:

Darin Ruf House: Do you wear hats?  You could pull off a Greek Fisherman’s hat or maybe Rerun’s beret from What’s Happening.

Dan Szymborski: occasionally I’ll wear a trilby

Dan Szymborski: I have a paddy cap but I’ve kind of gotten out of habit of wearing it

Darin Ruf House: Let’s say the O’s remain a step under .500 until they sell at the deadline.  What does the regular infield look like at the end of the year?

Dan Szymborski: I really want to see a Mountcastle-Westburg-Henderson-Mayo infield at some point!

Darin Ruf House: Chili!  No one has mentioned chili!  (You don’t want to erode your brand)

Mike: Holodeck would be the greatest thing ever.

Adgraphs: Why does this site publish so few articles? None at all on Saturdays?

Dan Szymborski: We do 4-6 a day!

Dan Szymborski: We try to avoid “shovelware” pieces.

Dan Szymborski: And everyone has weekends off except in emergencies

Dan Szymborski: We don’t flood with dozens of articles like some websites because everyone gets paid. There’s nobody working for exposure.

Guest: adgraphs is a troll. he’s asked that in chats before.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thought it was a serious question.

The 6ix: What constitutes an emergency?

Dan Szymborski: Like a HUGE trade or injury or some other news stuff

Dan Szymborski: And, of course, Laurila’s Sunday notes

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s the best dad joke you got?

Dan Szymborski: I only know childless loner jokes

Dan Szymborski: And on THAT note, it’s time for me to head out for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!