Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/9/20 by Dan Szymborski April 9, 2020 12:01 David Roberge is: Fat 12:01 Dan Szymborski: Dan is too! We can have a club. 12:02 Domingo: Are Evan Longoria and Kris Bryant the same person? 12:02 Domingo: Longoria and Bryant: well rounded third basemen, peaked early, face of franchise, similar stats when you compare age. 12:03 Dan Szymborski: Eh, I’m nto sure they’re hte same. 12:03 Dan Szymborski: Longoria had more glove 12:03 Dan Szymborski: and Bryant’s peak may have beenc omplicated by his injury 12:03 Derek Smalls: Have we received your thoughts on the sandwich-ness of a hamburger? Is a fried bologna sandwich a sandwich? If I sliced a hot dog in half, then lengthwise, and fried it and put it on a hot dog bun (like I may or may not have two days ago), is that then a sandwich? What is the difference between bologna and a hot dog? Would you eat a cold hotdog? These, and only these, are the important questions of the times. 12:04 Dan Szymborski: A hamburger is a sandwich, a bologna sandwich if it’s between two bread slices is a sandwich 12:04 Dan Szymborski: but if it’s on a hot dog roll, it’s not a sandwich 12:04 Dan Szymborski: NO 12:04 Dan Szymborski: And if you roll up bologna and then fry it and put it on a hot dog bun, it’s not a sandwich 12:04 Sonny: How important are head to head splits and is there a # of PAs where you’d give weight to them? 12:04 Dan Szymborski: I’ve found little value 12:04 Dan Szymborski: Far more than anyone has. 12:04 Dbo: Alright Dan, buckle up because I’ve got some hot salad takes coming today 12:05 Dbo: Which of these do you consider a salad? 1) Caesar Salad2) Fruit Salad3) Wedge Salad4) Pasta Salad5) Chicken Salad6) Taco Salad7) Tuna Salad8) Cobb Salad 12:05 Dan Szymborski: I was told on Twitter that ANYTHING is a salad 12:05 Dan Szymborski: so yeah, anything ever is a salad 12:05 Hire Joe Morgan?: In a discussion last week it was proposed that temperature is a binary variable as regards salad construction. If you apply your structure/ingredient matrix in combination with an oscillating function, could you develop an accurate salad model? 12:05 Dan Szymborski: The question is hot salad just gross or is it necessary for the construction? 12:06 Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to eat ice cold chili 12:06 Dan Szymborski: but is cold chili just gross chili or not chili at all? 12:07 Domingo: Does Gore’s odd delivery add any concern long term? 12:07 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure anyone really knows enough biomechanics to know for sure! 12:07 Dan Szymborski: But it worked for Daniel La Russo in the big All-Valley karate tournament. 12:07 Dbo: 9) Coleslaw 12:07 Bring Back Mookie: Dan, have you played D&D? If so, what’s your go-to class? 12:07 Dan Szymborski: Only some. My friend circle wasn’t big into that. 12:07 Dan Szymborski: So I’ve played a lot, lot more Japanese-style console RPGs than traditional tabletops. 12:08 SotoforMayor: if this isn’t too much to ask for, but I would be very interested in an joint article(s) with you and Jay Jaffe using career ZIPS projections to predict all the current Hall of Famers playing. You might even be able to make a good series of a few articles from that idea. I would be super interested and maybe you could use the extra idea! Just a thought. Thank you for doing this. 12:08 Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely something we’ve talked about 12:08 Hire Joe Morgan?: I like to think in quarantine that local morphology in our isolated housing groups will leave us with 130 million new languages when we emerge, and that we’ll be able to trace new language families derived from things like Dan Szymborski chats. We will each speak different Germanic/Romantic/Szymborskic languages, which collectively will be known as GRS, pronounced like something a bear would say. 12:08 Dbo: Is cucumber salad a salad? 12:08 Dan Szymborski: I think so, but if you’ve seen my fat ass, you know I’m not a salad expert. 12:09 Derek: Thoughts on Jorge Ona? Think he could have a big year if he stays healthy? 12:09 Dan Szymborski: He certainly could, but he’s kind of wait-and-see guy with such a career path 12:09 CoronaCredit: In a way, most generations have players getting things like war or strike credit for career totals. So I guess now we have another such situation. 12:09 Dan Szymborski: Hopefully it won’t be enough missing time to warrant it! 12:10 Ari: Can Tirso Ornelas turn it around? 12:10 Dan Szymborski: He’s way too young to write off 12:11 J.D. Martin: Cat update please 12:12 Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia and Mercutio are sleeping in different upstairs bedrooms. Last I saw before I came downstairs for chat Justinian was in one of the empty boxes that have accumulated in my living room fighting a catnip banana. Constantine was in the kitchen looking at birds through the screen door after being yelled at for trying to pull down the curtain rod in the dining room window. 12:12 Dbo: Evan Longoria was not bad on desperate housewives 12:12 Chris: Is Aaron judge going to be ready for the season? (Fantasy baseball draft happens soon) 12:13 Dan Szymborski: Very well could be, though I’ve heard little of his injury 12:13 Dbo: So chili is a salad? What if we call chili without beans ‘chili’ but chili with beans ‘chili salad’ 12:13 Dan Szymborski: I’d call it bean-and-meat salad 12:13 Shakin it up: Significant trade you’d most like to see happen. 12:14 Dan Szymborski: Mike Trout to the Orioles for Richie Martin! 12:14 Dank Train: A pop tart is ravioli. Change my mind 12:14 Dan Szymborski: Nah, I’m on board. It’s a dessert ravioli. 12:14 Jack: What’s the ETA on the ZiPS spreadsheet? 12:14 Dan Szymborski: Still in the works; lost some serious time while I had a nasty cold 12:15 Jon: What is your favorite great pitch from a mediocre/bad pitcher? Something like Chaz Roe’s slider, for example 12:15 Dan Szymborski: That’s kinda mean for Roe! 12:16 Dan Szymborski: I was going to say Mecir, but I can’t really call him mediocre 12:17 Dan Szymborski: I always like Suppan’s fosh changeup. He might have been better if he did anythign else well 12:17 Derek Smalls: Damn, I mistyped–the hot dog sliced went on a hamburger bun–is it now a sandwich? 12:17 Dan Szymborski: As long as the bun isn’t hinged, yes 12:18 Dbo: Will you be buying the new FFVII? 12:19 Dan Szymborski: I’m wait-and-see on this one. 12:20 Dan Szymborski: It becoming an action RPG might be off-putting for me, so I’d like to see what other people think, maybe watch a bit on Twitch 12:20 Dan Szymborski: It’d be an easier sell if I hadn’t had such fondness for the game and played ir originally 12:20 Derek Smalls: What would you say is the percent chance we see any baseball this year? If we do, o/u on number of regular season games? 12:20 Dan Szymborski: 70%, 100. 12:21 Dan Szymborski: If the cases start sliding like the IHME model thinks, maintaining social distancing would quickly become futile. 12:21 Dan Szymborski: People aren’t going to do this until August or anything – that’s a near impossibility. 12:22 Dan Szymborski: And if people are doing their normal stuff, basebalal’s not going to walk away from billions of dollars. 12:22 Sir Nerdlington: July 4 is 100% going to be opening day, right? I mean the governmental marketing campaign around that is impossible to avoid. 12:22 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say 100%, but if they *could* play games around there, that’s probably what they would do 12:22 Chris: If the season gets cancelled, does the draft order for 2021 stay the same? Would knowing that effect what a team does in the draft this year? 12:22 Dan Szymborski: No idea. I don’t think MLB has even addressed the issue! 12:22 JP: What effect would a shortened season in Arizona have on 2021 ZiPS projections? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: The season would be a smaller amount of the projection than most recent seasons. 12:23 Guest: Have you seen that Dana White is considering to buy a private island for fights? On a scale of 1 to 10, how super villany is this? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: It depends if he makes them fight to the death and whether these fighters are abducted for a rich Yakuza boss or come willingly 12:23 Hire Joe Morgan?: Is a peanut ravioli, or does the filling need to be inserted by people? Is this a circumstance in which we realize observation does not have to be human observation; the universe can do the observing, and can also construct the ravioli? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: I think a ravioli has to be a non naturally-occurring process. 12:23 Dbo: Who was a superior minor league player: Michael Jordan or Tim Tebow? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Probably Tebow. 12:24 Kingpin: For fantasy baseball purposes, I’m thinking that RPs will see a bump in value while SPs will see a drop. If a SP goes from 180 to 140 IP, but a RP may only see a drop in IP from say 70 to 60. Does this make sense? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: It’s possible. I think we might see more long relievers without the worry that you’re throwing them out there for 80 games 12:24 Sir Nerdlington: Cubs need to shed 5-7M on salary if the guys on supply contracts make the team. With prorated salaries does that mean they need to move a 10-14M contract if they play half a season? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Well, they don’t NEED to 12:24 Dan Szymborski: And I’m not sure. 12:25 Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of questions that are still up in the air. 12:25 Dank Train: How do you see Aaron Civale projecting over the next 5 years? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be FINE, but not like a #2 guy or anything 12:25 Chris: If the minor league season is cancelled would that effect how teams draft. Like would injured guys be drafted based on talent since everyone is missing a year of development. Would young guys go earlier and old guys later. Would fast tracked prospects move up even more? Would hitters who typically take longer to develop move down? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: I suspect that teams will go younger. Younger players have more time to make up for a lost season 12:25 Dbo: The trash can banging is going to be super obvious if they do fanless games 12:25 Chris: Could tebow have started in baseball for Florida when he went there? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: Probably. 12:25 Dan Szymborski: Given his minor league performance. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: Like, he’s not even remotely a prospect and he’d be a frigging awful MLBer, but he’s not hitting like a pitcher. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: And he’d probably be a better defensive player if he wasn’t out of baseball for a decade. 12:26 Dank Train: So wait, you are saying the Earth itself is not a ravioli? It meets the criteria: a solid outer shell with a molten interior 12:26 Dan Szymborski: Earth is not a ravioli. 12:26 Aceman: You as high as zips on Solak over next 3 years,making trade and need to choose between him and Arraez 12:27 Dan Szymborski: I relaly like them both. I think Solak’s more interesting in real life, but Arraez BA will likely give him fantasy edge 12:27 Dbo: Tim Tebow really should have started a deli called Tim Tebow’s T-bones 12:27 Masks: I kinda want to see baseball with goalie masks. 12:28 Siri: which would you keep in H2H OBP/SLG h2h category league: Keston Hiura or Mike Moustakas? I’m in win now mode. 12:28 Dan Szymborski: Moustakas, but only because you’re win-now 12:28 Dan Szymborski: long-term, I’d obviously MUCH rather have Hiura 12:28 Sum: Dan, the weather is weirding in your hometown of Baltimore. just FYI. 12:28 Dan Szymborski: What’s going on? 12:29 Dan Szymborski: I just checked my old zip code (21204) and it’s 62 with some thunderstorms. 12:29 Dan Szymborski: Is it like raining gobstoppers or something? 12:29 Dbo: I’m of the mindset that the ravioli must be encompassed by dough, I do not subscribe to these radical ravioli theories 12:29 Hire Joe Morgan?: If a jellyfish ate a fish and a turtle ate the jellyfish, is the turtle eating a jellyfish^2 ravioli? Or would the turtle have to do the construction? 12:29 Dan Szymborski: The turtle has to construct it 12:29 Dank Train: I always forget the time in this chat is Eastern. I had a heart attack because I thought I missed an important meeting, but it’s still 30 minutes away. Petition to have the time changed to the time zone of the reader to avoid any future fatalities 12:30 Dan Szymborski: I will petition TO MAKE EASTERN TIME THE ONE TRUE TIME 12:30 Dbo: Catchers already wear goalie masks 12:30 Hire Joe Morgan?: Real catchers wear catcher’s masks and a backwards shell. 12:31 Dank Train: Real catchers don’t wear knee-savers 12:33 Chris: Once we get rid of daylight savings time we can rid ourselves of timezones!! 12:34 Blue Morpho: Is a catcher with a goalie mask, backwards hat, and knee savers a salad? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Does he have mayo? 12:34 Hire Joe Morgan?: If a spider catches a fly and wraps it in silk, is the spider preparing ravioli? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Yes 12:34 Just a guy: Which of these prospects do you think become aces: Pearson, Whitley, Patino, May, Kopech, Luzardo? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: I think all have a chance 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Though I think Whitley is the riskiest, even more than Koepch 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Lopecih 12:34 Dan Szymborski: KKopech 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Kopech 12:34 Adam: What’s the standard for whether a sandwich ingredient gets into the name? For example, if you put lettuce on a turkey sandwich, you wouldn’t call it a turkey-and-lettuce sandwich. But swap the turkey for bacon and add a tomato, and lettuce suddenly gets second billing. Where do you draw the line? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Just depends on if someone can give it a name. 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Anyone can give something a name. 12:35 Dan Szymborski: But you have to have the courage to murder everyone who treis to call it differently. 12:35 Dan Szymborski: The guy who invented the Reuben had to kill so many people 12:35 Sum: well, technically a suburb between Baltimore and Annapolis. it’s not bright, but it’s not very cloudy. there are some raindrops going sideways. it is warm. 12:37 Just a guy: Three favorite position player prospects right now (other than Wander)? 12:37 Dan Szymborski: you dont’ mean best? 12:38 Dan Szymborski: just so long as we’r enot going by best and going by FAVORITE 12:38 Dan Szymborski: Madrigal 12:38 Dan Szymborski: Hayes 12:38 Dan Szymborski: Lux 12:39 Dan Szymborski: (though Lux is one of three best!) 12:39 Adam: What happened with the Sloppy Joe, then? Did Joe commit the opposite of murder to lock that one down? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: He named it a Fancy Joe, but since he didn’t defend the name, people used it to dunk on him 12:39 Sam: Under this ravioli logic, are calzones and strombolis just oversized ravioli? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: Yes 12:39 Dan Szymborski: They’re subsets of the ravioli family, IMO 12:41 Sam: Follow-up question: is pie a ravioli if it has a dough top? 12:41 Dan Szymborski: I dunno, pies aren’t really FILLED the way a ravioli is 12:41 Dan Szymborski: I think that the process of raviolification is important 12:41 hscer: are three ritzes on top of each other a sandwich 12:41 Dan Szymborski: They’re a small uncut club sandwich. 12:41 hscer: what about 3 pringles 12:42 Dan Szymborski: Pringles aren’t food, so don’t count 12:42 Dbo: Is ravioli a sub order of dumpling or is a dumpling a sub order of ravili 12:42 Dan Szymborski: How were they filled? 12:45 Dbo: I think raviolis have to made with dough that does not have yeast in it, also I think raviolis should be cooked through some process involving water like steaming or boiling 12:45 E: Are catchers ravioli? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: No we’re silly 12:45 Adam: So then, a Smuckers Uncrustable… peanut butter and jelly, inside white bread that’s sealed all the way around. Is it a sandwich, a ravioli, both, or neither? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: It’s a breadvioli 12:45 Jason N: An article in The Athletic alluded to rumors that some teams are having cash flow problems and may intentionally underfund their draft pools. We think of owners having these unlimited funds and deep pockets but most of these guys made their money in not-baseball and the economy has to be hitting each of them hard. How possible is it we see a team (Mets? Indians?) that gets into “fold” territory? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: Fold? No, but some teams may run into actual money problems as opposed to their usual fake money problems 12:45 Sam: Dumpling is older than ravioli so ravioli must be a suborder of dumpling 12:45 Sonny: The Charleston Riverdogs are holding a virtual opening day tonight complete with T Shirt cannon (for best comments on live stream, shirts will be mailed). 12:45 Sonny: “Earth is not a ravioli” is the new “April” 12:45 Dbo: Uhhhhhh, they were filled by folding the meat in the dough? 12:46 Jason N: Labor and Owners both blowing through their war chests right now. Any take on how that may impact the CBA negotiations? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Nobody knwos at this point 12:46 hscer: Is a waffle cut up into chunks on a plate with a fruit smoothie poured on top a breakfast cereal? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Yes 12:46 Dbo: ravioli dough can only have water, dough, and maybe egg so pie dough goes against this logic 12:46 hscer: Well none of these other debates matter if we’re going to talk about edible things regularly eaten not being food! 12:48 Adam: Is a scuba diver a ravioli? What about a person getting an MRI? 12:48 Dan Szymborski: No, none of these are! 12:48 BASEBALL SZN: Any bee incidents since the last stream? 12:48 Dan Szymborski: Nope, no more house bees. 12:48 Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure where it got in 12:48 Sonny: I imagine prospect advances between levels will be near zero until there’s a vaccine so how will we view the bottleneck that forms? Age relative to level, etc 12:48 Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say – years lost are hard to recover 12:48 re: Hot Salad: In central PA, they make a hot bacon dressing (basically drippings, sugar, and vinegar) and pour it over lettuce to wilt it. It’s a hot salad that is delicious. 12:48 Dan Szymborski: But most hot salads are not 12:49 Dave: Sandwich, shmandwich. Try a real Korean taco (samgyeopsal). Grilled pork belly dipped in sesame seed oil, salt and pepper; top with grilled garlic, shredded green onions, bean sprouts, and steamed rice; slather with red pepper paste and wrap in lettuce. Mmm… that’s some good eatin’!!! 12:49 Sonny: Think this lay-off will precipitate a dirge in depth, org guy prospects dropping out of pro ball? If you were a 24y in A+ and this was a make or break year how does org evaluate after this? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: I think it’s very possible. 12:49 Dan Szymborski: But not quite as many as you might think 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Because it’s hard getting jobs elsewhere right now 12:49 BASEBALL SZN: If you’re into JRPGs, will you be playing FF7 Remake? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Said at the top! Wait-and-see. 12:50 Dank Train: samgyeopsal sounds like a poor man’s imitation ravioli 12:50 hscer: is a soft taco a taco? 12:50 Dan Szymborski: I prefer proper soft corn tortillas 12:50 Dan Szymborski: Of coruse it is, don’t make me send you to where sloppy joe went 12:50 Adam: Any aspects of the ballpark experience that aren’t coming back when this is all over? 12:50 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so 12:50 Dan Szymborski: It’s not like it was a ballpark practice that *(caused* the virus 12:51 E: Was the 2019 baseball a ravioli? 12:51 Dan Szymborski: it has to be a food 12:51 Dan Szymborski: BASEBALLS ARE NOT RAVIOLI 12:51 Dan Szymborski: THE SUN IS NOT A RAVIOLI 12:51 Dan Szymborski: THE EARTH IS NOT A RAVIOLI 12:51 Dan Szymborski: THE MILKY WAY IS NOT A RAVIOLI 12:52 Aceman: Josh Hamilton indicted on those charges he physically abused his teenage daughter, who’s your guy who woulda been great if he kept it together off the field 12:52 Dave: Chili, schmilli. Eat more beans and root for the Wind Surge! 12:52 Dank Train: Actually, I think Milky Ways are a ravioli. Chocolate coating, caramel insides. No different than a pop tart as a dessert ravioli 12:52 Dan Szymborski: Are you allowed to pipe in a ravioli? The chocolate wasn’t wrapepd around the filling 12:52 Dan Szymborski: Or crimped around it 12:52 hscer: if pringles aren’t food then why can’t a baseball or the earth be food? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: THEY’RE NOT 12:52 hscer: “The Milky Way” is our galaxy, “a Milky Way” is a candy bar. 12:52 Dbo: Pop Tarts are made of dough, milky ways arent made of dough 12:52 Sonny: “2019 baseballs were not a ravioli” ~ small sample size. We need more data 12:53 Dank Train: IF the season happens in a shortened form but there are no fans allowed, do you foresee a hit in attendance in future seasons as a result as fans get used to watching from their couch? 12:53 Dan Szymborski: I think people will be more likely to want to just be friends with their couch after this 12:53 hscer: surely someone has asked this one before: is a hot dog a taco? 12:53 Dan Szymborski: no! 12:53 Dbo: Dan, this ravioli debate is exactly why we should never let radical sandwich anarchy be an option 12:53 Sonny: I miss bars 12:54 Dbo: I propose we create an agency to enact strict regulations and laws surrounding food items which I am made the head of, I certainly will not abuse this position for profit 12:54 Dan Szymborski: Europe kinda has these, though they’re more place of origin 12:54 hscer: what is a taco anyway 12:55 Dan Szymborski: We don’t have enough remaining time for this deep philosophical discussion 12:55 Dank Train: is a walking taco a taco 12:55 Dan Szymborski: What is a walking taco? 12:55 hscer: is macaroni and cheese a breakfast cereal? (adding milk is generally part of the instructions) 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Milk is in the preparation, not something you add to your bowl 12:55 splat: ravioli 12:55 AK: Thoughts on Demon Hunterstone? Day 2 nerfs already! Hoping for a BG patch soon too 12:56 Dan Szymborski: It’s a little TOO strong! 12:56 E: “What is a walking taco?” oh my 12:56 Ted: What’s your take on tortellini? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: They’re fine 12:56 Billy Beane: Dan is a baseball a baseball? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: yes 12:56 Dank Train: A walking taco is taco meat and taco toppings, generally put in a bag of doritos or fritos 12:56 Dbo: a walking taco is not a taco 12:56 Dbo: It’s more of a taco salad 12:56 TBW: Is Bobby Witt overrated as a prospect? Average hit tool, meh pitch recognition, may get too big for shortstop. This sounds scary 12:56 Dan Szymborski: It hink it’s possible. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: His average result probably puts him int he top 100, but there’s enough upside that the scout-watchers like him 12:57 Dan Szymborski: And his average isn’t THAT bad – ZiPS put him just out of its top 100 12:57 Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to head off on the old dusty trail. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: But make sure to return to FanGraphs at 2 PM: Paul, Ben and I are livestreaming Dodgers/Cardinals MLB The Show 12:58 Dan Szymborski: Urias vs C-Mart!