Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/28/2020

Dan Szymborski: And so starts the show!

Daryl: Who do you have the Reds taking with their first pick?

Dan Szymborski: Eric’s the mock draft guy!

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say depending on who goes there, but I expect the team to take a pitcher

Dan Szymborski: Or at least prioritize a pitcher

Dan Szymborski: Maybe if someone like Bailey drops to them?

Lisa needs braces: DENTAL PLAN!

Daryl: Top 3 pitchers in the draft after Lacy?

Dan Szymborski: Depends if you like safeness or upside.

Dan Szymborski: I think Meyers and Detmers fit here? But again, I’m not a scouting guru.

Pray for Mojo: Dan if MLB ever moves to robo umps what team is going to hack them first?

Dan Szymborski: You’d say the Astros, but their sign-stealing stuff was embarrassingly low-tech.

Joe: Temperature check on how bullish/bearish you are that we end up getting a season

Dan Szymborski: I’m still more bullish than most. I think both sides are giving their “yeah, we’re not conceding anything” offers to quell their respective hard-liners.

Dbo: For anyone new to the chat here’s a summary of Dan’s food opinions

Sandwiches: Structural purist, sandwich must have 2 separate slices

Chili: Meat only, no beans or veggies. Also only can be beef

Salad: must be majority lettuce; tuna salad, fruit salad, and chicken salad are not salads. Has been oddly silent about coleslaw

Soups: Apparently they can be savory and sweet

Also, he refuses to take a stance on if a pop tart is a ravioli or comment on if grilled cheese can have a filling other than cheeser

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Relegate Oakland. What a pathetic display, saving $1MM by cutting off your minor leaguers, who can’t play elsewhere thanks to the league’s increasingly suspect antitrust exemptions. Even purely from a baseball ops perspective, if you lose any fraction of a WAR from this (which you will, either from players walking away or the loss in nutrition and conditioning), you come out behind, to say nothing of the cost of the lost goodwill from the players when it’s time to sign contracts or the public right now.

Dan Szymborski: I thought it was a crappy thing to do. It’s literally a fart in the wind in their balance sheet to give their minor leaguers the minimum for the rest of the year.

Dan Szymborski: And this is a team that in large part draws their revenue from *other* teams.

Dan Szymborski: It’s worse than Scrooge; Scrooge at least *earned* his money to start with.

Vroom Vroom Guy: Does ZIPS view Tulo as a pretty easy HoF selection if not for all of the missed time due to injury? Man was he fun to watch

Dan Szymborski: Subject of a future ZiPS Time Warp!

Guest: Thought that when you posted a soundcloud for the growing pains theme last week it was going to be you playing the piano, and was surprised but not disappointed. Can I request you to do the perfect strangers theme this week?

Dan Szymborski: I guess I could.

Dan Szymborski: We have time, there’s no way we have enough questions to get to 1 PM without some filibustering.

Dbo: Hot dog Sandwich

Dbo: I figured out how to upload pictures to the chat Dan, my time has come!

Dan Szymborski: This is a hot dog sandwich

Guest: What would Rickey Henderson’s stats be if his career was in the 2000s instead of the 70s to 80s?

Dan Szymborski: Probably fewer stolen bases, but he’d still get a lot. He was so good at it that it would be hard to not let him.

brad: Dan, Clearly the owners are smarter than the players, the owners use the union not having minor as its members against them, now they are turning the players against themselves. Also for whatever reason and this includes my friends and family, everyone sides with ownership that even if Mike Trout is “ONLY” making $6M a year, he is still an employee who is making millions to play a child’s game, while many around the country have taken 50% paycuts or lost their jobs and it makes the players seem out of touch to try and hold onto their millions, and yes we all know owners have billions, but that doesn’t seem to matter. All this being said, it seems like the owners vastly being smarter or more strategic at some point yes these agreements favor them, but at some point they players may just refuse to play which hurts everyone, so do the owners give in even though they have the upper hand or do the players just refuse to play?

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that the players ahve a lot more voices to “wrangle” than the owners do collectively.

Dan Szymborski: And many people have this really stupid idea that ticket prices and beer prices are high because of players salaries.

Dan Szymborski: All these people who I’m sure enjoyed their free Rose Bowl tickets.

Dan Szymborski: https://soundcloud.com/dan-szymborski/perfect/s-73P8SUfpQvu

Sonny: Mad Max’s public comment feels adequate. Direct, strong sense of solidarity. I feel better about negotiations now than I did before his comment.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t feel better, but I don’t feel worse. I saw some of this as “Yeah, we can make a proposal that is just all the stuff we want, too.”

Vroom Vroom Guy: Snowpiercer the movie was awesome and there’s no way the show will be anywhere near as good, therefore I refuse to watch it.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve actually never seen it!

hscer: Baseball twitter, or at least a chunk of it, seems to think baseball might literally not come back until 2023 if ever. I have no question.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a large portion of the “how dare they, sports can come back after there’s a vaccine” crowd, which I find just as non-scientific as the “gee-hyuk don’t you be wearing no masks!” crowd.

Dan Szymborski: And a lot of 40 and 50 year old writers seem to have this belief that players have the exact same beliefs on safety as they do.

Dan Szymborski: Like they’re being forced to come play. In fact, a lot of the buzz I’ve heard in the usual back channels is there are a lot of players who think the protocols are too STRICT

Dan Szymborski: Not to say that we shouldn’t be careful and perhaps be opening things more careful generally than we have.

Dan Szymborski: But remember, the idea is to flatten the curve and keep medical facilities from being overwhelmed. There’s been some mission creep here; a true vaccine may be NEVER after all, or it may just be something that mitigates the worst cases somewhat, like the flu vaccines.

Daryl: I have been the optimist always thinking we would have some sort of season but I think I am starting to feel less optimistic. What about you? What are your odds on a season?

Dan Szymborski: I tend to go between 60/40 and 70/30 for a season

Reader: How do I tell you and Craig apart? Who does what?

Dan Szymborski: We do very different stuff!

Dan Szymborski: Also, he has curly salt-and-pepper hair and is in better shape than I am.

brad: how far do you think Blaze Jordan falls?  With the Yankees horrible draft record besides judge, but he was a comp pick. Would blaze make sense for highest upside?  I don’t want to hear they took another “toolsy” SS or SP with injury risk again…

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea on Jordan. Teams aren’t falling them over themselves to draft 1B/may stick at 3B types, even pretty awesome ones, these days. If he does fall out of first round, which seems very likely, given the draft changes, he probably would be smart to go to Mississippi State.

Det: Odds the Tigers take a position player aside from Fork?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s an Adley-level lock.

Aav: The AAV on Aroldis Chapman’s page does not line up with his total contract. AAV says 17.5. Total contract is 48

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Dan Szymborski: No, this one is correct.

Dan Szymborski: For luxury tax purposes, there’s an additional charge from the previous contract.

Dan Szymborski: His signing bonus from the previous contract which he opted out of was redistributed among the contract.

Dan Szymborski: Else teams could structure signing bonuses in a certain way that they don’t have to actually have it in AAV.

hscer: [filibustering]

Dan: What’s the best nonstandard pet?

Dan Szymborski: Rock

Dbo: Why do you hate Pringles, Dan?

Dan Szymborski: They taste like thick potato chops gone stale.

Dan Szymborski: chips

Dan Szymborski: I mean, they’re just pressed potato sweepings

AW: Is it a possible ploy by the owners to throw out this season to give them more negotiating power next year?  If there is no season this year it seems like there will be tremendous pressure on the players to get a new deal done.

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think it’s that complex.

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a hard-line in owners, Moreno and some others, that don’t want to give the players anything and make it retroactive.

Danny Almonte’s fastball: What is greater with robo umps: the WAR loss for good catchers from framing, or the WAR gain from increased offense now that lesser framing catchers can play the position?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either is significant.

John: Is there going to be a trade deadline if we have a season?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Joel: How many minor league and Indy league teams will not survive this crisis?

Dan Szymborski: Dozens.

Dbo: Which players would be on the “Real Housewives of MLB”

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, I don’t pay any attention to players’ personal lives

Vroom Vroom Guy: You know you’re hungry when something that looks like that makes your stomach quake

Dbo: New sport idea: Baseball golf, the players must hit a baseball into a hole that is 600 yards away in the least amount of swings possible

Dan Szymborski: It would be fun in All-Star Week!

Joel: Speak to questions of contraction and what will happen to MILB’s infrastructure.

Dan Szymborski: I think MLB is going to wait until the smoke clears and see which minor league teams are still in business.

Dan Szymborski: Because realistically, I think the idea of a 2020 season is dead.

Billy G: It’s kinda hard to think these owners actually care about baseball. It feels almost like it’s been corporatized to a point where they’re ignoring the long term prospects of the sport (oh great we’re falling further behind NFL and NBA!) just to make sure they protect their precious long term valuation.

Dan Szymborski: I really preferred to have Bud Selig.

Dan Szymborski: Bud Selig could be a douchelord as much as any commish, but at his core, I never had any doubt that Selig actually liked baseball.

Billy G: And yes, I am a bitter A’s fan who absolutely hates what they did

Vroom Vroom Guy: Twitter is fun to laugh at. But I really wish it didn’t exist

Dan Szymborski: I both love and abhor twitter.

Narvain: As much as MLB’s offer is a list of what they want, I’ve never heard anyone refute MLB’s statement that the March deal was structured that they would not start unless playing with fans.  If that’s the case then the players insistence on sticking to the march deal is really just them giving a list of what they want as well.  I don’t see how I can really side with either party at this point.  Is there something I’m missing?

Dan Szymborski: I think the owners have been more bullshitty in public negotiations, but I prefer to not take sides. I can’t speak for all journalists and am not qualified to pass judgement on anyone but myself, but I feel my analysis is most effective when I am a neutral party.

Dan Szymborski: If I didn’t have a favorite team long before I became a writer, I probably would not have a personal rooting interest right now.

Dan Szymborski: And I disclose I’m an Oriole fan for the purpose of unconscious bias.

Dave: Was that photo of you used in these chats taken after eating some bad chili?

Dan Szymborski: Someone asked me at one point to update Twitter avatar with a representation of how I feel about everything right now.

Isolated Thinker: That right there is another source of division among players.  Some take the pandemic seriously, wear a mask, and feel the safety protocols are not enough, and some do not take it seriously, never wear a mask, and think the protocols are way too much.   Internal clashes will happen!  Some players could just decide not to play if they don’t feel it is safe after a game or two. Agree?

Dan Szymborski: I think owners are cognizant of this which is partially the reason for the sliding scale proposal, too.

Dan Szymborski: Owners did an amazing job splitting the MLBPA against itself in drug testing negotiations, going on 20 years ago.

Dan Szymborski: Players interests are wider and there are 1200 of them or so.

Sir Nerdlington: Was the 170M an advance that needs to be repaid or pay for April and may akin to the pay the milb players received? If the former, seems like a big giveaway not to die for full salaries.

Dan Szymborski: It does not need to be repaid, I believe, unless there’s a season.

Jack: Do you suspect Beltran was such a great basestealer and runne because he stole signs? That’s like the hugest crime

Dan Szymborski: That seems a harder argument to make.

Sir Nerdlington: Think the Oakland sentiment affects the stadium negotiations? The local pols can’t be happy.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I would hope so.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Would you have one or two sentences to say to the people defending the owners’ progressive pay cut scale?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. I don’t care to lecture.

Jack: Do you do ZiPs projections for draft prospects? Is NCAA data a few years off?

Dan Szymborski: I do translations of college players when I *have* to. Not when I don’t!

Sir Nerdlington: Will anyone sign with Oakland if they have literally any other offer?

Dan Szymborski: I would hope not!

hscer: potato chops and pork chips

Dan Szymborski:

Joe: Is there somewhere that does a championships added formula, that accounts for things like how War needs to be clustered and 3 war in 2 positions is not as valuable as 6 war in 1 position? Anywhere you can direct me to read up on it would be appreciated

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think any such thing exists. Though it may; it’s not like 1995 and it’s hard to know everything sabermetric that texists.

Jack: Will people start supporting paying NCAA athletes now? It’s hilarious that the minors existed for a century and peopleonly gave a shit about wages at the vey end under a crushing CBA

Dan Szymborski: People won’t support it.

Jack: I’m going to be sad if the Cubs dump their Eugene affiliate. OTOH Eugene is tied to the Oregon Ducks and use their baseball field. Does this make them safer than most MiL teams?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone’s safe.

hscer: If we held a commissioner lottery to redistribute the current 4 around the leagues, what would be the ideal result?

Dan Szymborski: A Masque of Red Death scenario at the lottery?

Sir Nerdlington: With Oakland severing payments to milb players, what retribution could players possibly face now by forming a union? Good time to start, no?

Dan Szymborski: I would think os.

Jack: Would the public’s dull refrain about capitalism and profits not being evil change if they knew how publicly subsidized sports in America are?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a capitalist.

Dan Szymborski: (I don’t support publicly subsidized sports, of course)

GSon: If you put bad or good chili on a bun (no beans) is it still a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dbo: Skyline “Chili”

Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna ban you!

Dbo: Hate Crime

Sir Nerdlington: Arte Moreno and John Fisher seem  like a real sweethearts.

Dbo: If you’re Mookie Betts then do you want a season since you can get a fat contract and paid this year without having to prove anything?

Dan Szymborski: I still want a season. It *would* tamp down on his value some.

Dan Szymborski: There’s just more uncertainty after a missing year and it’s going to reflect in everyone’s contract offers

Dbo: Can applesauce be a condiment? Like with latkes or pork chops?

Dan Szymborski: If used in such a manner

Lark: How often do you actually eat chili? I’m hoping for once a year or less, and the joke is even further past reality than we thought

Dan Szymborski: I make chili maybe twice a year.

Dan Szymborski: Most of what I eat are simple sandwiches and fairly plain baked chicken.

Dan Szymborski: I have to eat cautious just to maintain THIS awful figure!

Sir Nerdlington: I believe only 6 current owners were sitting at the table for the last strike (not including 3 other teams now run by the kids). Think things would be different if it weren’t such a minority of lowly respected teams (CWS, COL, min, phi, SF, sea)?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. Owner interest are pretty much the same.

Jimmy: Thank you for clarifying Chapman’s AAV! I could not figure it out

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s a little more complex in this case because of the opt-out.

Jack: I love capitalism….We’re not really there

Dan Szymborski: I agree.

Dan Szymborski: And I should note, that just because I think the A’s being dickfarts should be *legally* allowed, does that mean I think it’s moral, nice, or something I’m not going to speak loudly about at all times.

Dan Szymborski: At the risk of a “no true Scotsman” fallacy, I object to people who think they are libertarians but are really just Randian objectivists who can’t tell the difference.

Dan Szymborski: Though in fairness, if we get to specifics, I self-identify as a Geolibertarian because of my strong Georgist leanings.

Dbo: Alright, I’m done with pictures

Dan Szymborski: YOU BET YOU ARE BUCKO!

Jack: So the A’s are still going to want money and land for their stadium, right?

Dan Szymborski: Naturally.

Jack: IIRC the Angels want a new stadium sometime too

Lorenzo: Will teams now get bigger returns on trades for discounted star players at the deadline?   Kris Bryant getting paid $6 MIL is a much more valuable rental than the Kris Bryant making $18 MIL+.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

Jack: How

Dan Szymborski: in what way or manner; by what means

Lark: What’re your simple sandwich suggestions? I’m bored with my usuals

Dan Szymborski: Some meat, some cheese, some condiment, stuff it on some bread and into your gullet. It’ shard to go too wrong

hscer: So I guess the AL West has the worst owners collectively then, if we hate Crane too?

Dan Szymborski: The case can be made!

Jack: Do you know how many current owners are second gen guys – emphasis on guys – who inherited? I know the Yankees. and Twins are run by sons, can’t remember anyone else

Dan Szymborski: Orioles

Dan Szymborski: though TECHNICALLY Peter still owns

Dan Szymborski: Cubs

Dan Szymborski: Ilitch of course

Dan Szymborski: (Chris)

Dan Szymborski: It hink Middleton comes from money, but not HUGE money.

Dan Szymborski: And then Lil’ Wilpon someday.

Dan Szymborski: Though I guess technically, given the Mets debt structure, he might not count as gaining wealth from parent!

Eddie Waitkus: Lou Brown has to be the best fictional manager/coach of all time, right?

Dan Szymborski: WHAT ABOUT BUTTERMAKER

Dan Szymborski: Now Moneyball, that was invented by Rachel Phelps.

Dan Szymborski:

Jon: If so many people are defending the owners, is it possible that they’re actually on to something? The FG community seems so quick to dismiss them

Dan Szymborski: Then they shoudl have no problem making an argument in support.

Dan Szymborski: And just in case it was missed, Perfect Strangers theme croaked out by me.

Dan Szymborski: https://soundcloud.com/dan-szymborski/perfect/s-73P8SUfpQvu

Dan Szymborski: I also did Take On Me when I had an awful case of laryngitis, by request.

Dan Szymborski: https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/DanLaryngitis2.mp3

Dan Szymborski: Probably kept my voice from healing for an additional week

Smucky the Cat: Has the business side of baseball always been such a bummer?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Ron Paul: Ron Paul

Dan Szymborski: A Matt Damon variation?

Guest: I know this is a question for Meg, but I’m lucky if I notice the time a chat is going on once a week, so you get it.  You writers spend hours coming up with clever sub-headlines for your articles, but once the article is off the top lines they are gone forever.  Couldn’t your witty description of the article be part of the article itself just below the headline so that we can enjoy it forever?

Dan Szymborski: I’m spending hours thinking those sub-headlines?

Dan Szymborski: Usually it’s OMG I COMPLETELY FORGOT ABOUT IT I BETTER STUFF ONE IN BEFORE MEG OPENS THE PIECE

Rickets bought from the Trib: I don’t think Cubs are inherited.

Dan Szymborski: I thought we were talking about family money, not necessarily family team

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I was conflating John Fisher conversation with that one

Dan Szymborski: Since he’s family money, not family team inheritance

GSon: Bauer/Scherzer have made it a point to tell Mr BOR-ASS to butt out.. but don’t Scott Boras’ clients rely on him to get the most money possible? Doesn’t that make his input into these negotiations essential?

Dan Szymborski: Only if his contribution *helps*

Dan Szymborski: If keeping his mouth shut is the best thing for his clients, then he has to do that

GSon: Paul Dolan

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, forgot he’s the “controller” of the team now

Jon: Would you consider a chat without politics? Better yet, without talk of the pandemic? I know it’s a challenge but it would be a good relief

Dan Szymborski: With baseball keeping the chat attendance down, I’ll answer just about everything!

Jack: Buttermaker couodnhave

Jack: I’m going to try that potato recipe

GSon: Lou Brown.. lost the series..Jake Taylor, as interim manager won.. so Taylor is the best manager?

Wait: Are contracts stated so that the owners are able to just not pay because of the shut down?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a force majeure clause

Sir Nerdlington: Contract the AL West. Solved.

GSon: Poll: Dumbest Reality Show Naked and Afraid or The Bachelor?

Dan Szymborski: Oh god, I don’t know what the first one is

Jack: Will single people find love in the time of COVID?

Dan Szymborski: People still had kids during the bubonic plague

hscer: response to “Ron Paul” of just “No” would have been perfect right after the “Yes” about the business side of baseball being a bummer

GSon: there you go, thinking again.. you know that just gets you into trouble..

Jack: What if we call an inheritance tax a death tax? Do you want to pay to be dead?!?!?

App: Thanks for being on time to the chats

hscer: ever looked into Plague Inc?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but haven’t tried it.

Dan Szymborski: Given the state of my Steam library, I might ALREADY hvae it and forgot

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Mitchell: If the A’s are declining to pay their minor leaguers, why would that not make them free agents?

Dan Szymborski: Reserve clause

Sir Nerdlington: If you line up all the AL West hats, it spells ASSHAT. no coincidence.

App: How about a FG app that notifies when chats are happening?

Dan Szymborski: I would think that enrage people!

Ryan: What are some games in your Steam library you have tried and enjoyed?

Dan Szymborski: CRUSADER KINGS 2 HOLY HELL A NEW ONE IS COMING OUT IN A FEW MONTHS!!!!

hscer: is your steam id public info?

Dan Szymborski: You can find me at most things at DSzymborski

Stan: With increasing velocities, I have a hypothetical: What if there were two pitching rubbers, one at 60 feet (6 inches in) and one at 61 feet (6 inches back). Hard throwing pitchers can elect to throw from the front mound, but aren’t allowed to throw off-speed pitches. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, I don’t like the choice. Pick one spot.

hscer: that’s…um…a lot of games…FOR ONE LETTER OF THE ALPHABET!

Dan Szymborski:

hscer: 960 is also the number of Fischer Random positions

DBRuns: Dan, from a fantasy perspective, who do you like more? Mike Tauchman or Mike Yastrzemski? Format is Ottoneu, so scoring based on roughly on wOBA constants. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Yaz

hscer: as well as like 80x my library

Dan Szymborski: I should probably put my Steam password in my will, now that I think of it

Dan Szymborski: I see now I have to Bovada shortcuts and Call of Duty Warzone is only shortcut on laptop, not in that directorty!

hscer: by the way, underrated lame part of the Nats’ WS ring: putting the year the Lerners bought the team (2006) instead of the year the came to DC (04) or started playing in 05

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to head out for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully we’ll have some good news to talk about next week.

Dan Szymborski: HAHAHA I know, right?