Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/3/17

1:58	Clark Kent: Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/3/17 by Carson Cistulli

1:58	Dan Szymborski: The post about the chat is by Carson.

1:59	Tyler Glasnow: Would you give my new changeup a 55 scouting grade? Is the only thing holding me back now consistent control?

1:59	Dan Szymborski: The latter I think is the biggest obstacle. I wouldn’t want to give an exact grade without specifically reviewing the tape and looking at it, but it looks much improved to me

1:59

mtsw: Does Ryan Flaherty possess the least remarkable career in MLB history? Has never been an everyday starter, except as an injury replacement and will likely go all 3 rookie seasons and 3 arb years as an Oriole then (probably?) retire after this season. Say something about Ryan Flaherty’s lack of remarkability.

1:59	Dan Szymborski: It would be interesting to find the mediocre-est player in history.

2:02	Don Gale: Is Ender the clean Starling Marte?

2:03	Dan Szymborski: I dunno, Marte’s a little bigger.

2:03	Dan Szymborski: And I don’t like to get into clean/unclean stuff

2:04	Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, landscaper at the door and had a question on whether to dump this old pot that was hanging around)

2:04	Jeremy: Jason Kipnis: still in ‘spring training mode,’ or is there a real problem here?

2:04	Dan Szymborski: It’s still April for him

2:05	Jeremy: Is Andrew McCutchen turning into a LH platoon bat?

2:06	Dan Szymborski: Never freak out about short-term platoon splits. Ever ever.

2:06	Dan Szymborski: The larger problem is whether he’s actually a good player anymore.

2:07	Dan Szymborski: He’s still a bounceback candidate because of his sheer talent, but the longer this goes on, the more likely it is that he’s just a 4th outfielder now.

2:07	Eric: What do you think the Twins brass is looking for out of Jose Berrios besides a sexy stat line? All he does is dominate AAA hitters, and apparently there are no plans to call him up soon.

2:07	Dan Szymborski: I believe they want him to be confident – they’re in no particular hurry. I’d be concerned if he wasn’t up in the next 6 weeks.

2:08	Eli: More unsustainable Mike Fiers’ LOB% or his HR/FB%?

2:08	Dan Szymborski: Probably the HR/FB%

2:08	Dan Szymborski: Have you seen a home run derby? I doubt it’s a 46% rate when they’re trying to let ’em hit homers.

2:08	Borkins: What’s up Big Z? Quick question: How many hot dogs can you fit inside you at once?

2:09	Dan Szymborski: I’ve never measured. I don’t have a large mouth though.

2:09	Taijuan: Is Taijuan Walker mid-breakout (as long as he can stay away from the Nats)? FIP and SIERA look great, getting lots of swinging strikes.

2:09	Dan Szymborski: Cautiously optimistic

2:10	Carlos: Is Carlos Gomez a good bet to bounce back to ~.330 OBP with great counting stats? Many peripherals look like they’re trending back towards his older/better self.

2:10	Dan Szymborski: There’s only like one year in his career that he was really significantly above a .330 OBP.

2:10	Dan Szymborski: I think that’s asking for too much.

2:11	P: This question has been bothering me for some time and I’m not sure this is the approriate place to pose it but here it goes anyway:

2:11	Patrick: Let’s say the Rangers can’t improve and sell Darvish at the deadline, what could they get?

2:11	Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming that you.

2:12	Dan Szymborski: They’d get at least one serious prospect, probably a bit better package than Hill fetched.

2:13	RotoLando: Corey Kluber? More like Corey Klobb-er!

2:13	Dan Szymborski: I love GoldenEye references!

2:13	Dan Szymborski: STAPLE GUN

2:13	Dan Szymborski: What a sad, sad gun.

2:13	Dan Szymborski: Kluber will be fine.

2:14	Slamboni: What’s higher by season end: number of Rich Hill starts or Sam Dyson’s ERA?

2:14	Dan Szymborski: Let’s see, even pitching better, ZiPS add his before and future up to an ERA above 5

2:14	Dan Szymborski: Hill does have two starts.

2:15	Dan Szymborski: I’m usually pessimistic onw hat people should expect from him IP-wise, but I think he can get 4 more starts

2:15	hscer: if the fences at Yankee Stadium were suddenly shifted back to 450 feet in right-center and made immovable, would you suspect a henchman of Magic Johnson’s or Ted Lerner’s first?

2:15	Dan Szymborski: Heh

2:15	RotoLando: You do not seem like a particularly violent person, Dan, so in the Szymborski household, what do snitches get?

2:16	Dan Szymborski: I’d say stitches, but I didn’t get stitches when I slashed my foot a couple weeks ago and left an actual puddle of blood in the bathroom, so bandaids?

2:16	Moltar: So I saw in your Insider article the other day that you believe Devenski is being “wasted” in the bullpen rather than being moved to the rotation. Are you bucking the trend by not being on board with the multi-inning reliever movement? Or is this just a Devenski-specific call?

2:16	Zock Jr.: Dan, I’m at jury duty. By a slim majority in a poll Dave posted, I think I’m now bound by the ironclad law of chat polls to go find somebody guilty. When you tell my story… please leave this part out…

2:16	Dan Szymborski: I like the multi-inning reliever movement. But starting is even better.

2:17	Dan Szymborski: You can get out of jury duty super quick.

2:17	Dan Szymborski: Call a bailiff over to look at your PC.

2:17

Dan Szymborski: I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION I AGREE WITH YOU ON JURY NULLIFICATION

2:17	Moose: Looks like Moustakas has given up on being a more disciplined hitter, and has started pulling fly balls. Do you think he substantially outperforms his power projections?

2:18	Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say substantially, but he does appear to be more aggressive than in the past.

2:19	Dan Szymborski: (Though he was never exactly a count worker guy)

2:19	Dan Szymborski: Part of that could be the team – he’s one of the few performing guys on a really horrible 2017 offense so far, can’t ignore the pressure to try to do more

2:19	RotoLando: Who is more likely to “figure it out”, Greg Bird, Devon Travis, Sean Waltman or Tyler Glasnow?

2:19	Dan Szymborski: Three of them will be fine. Not X-Pac.

2:20	Dan Szymborski: Though I think Bird could stand for some AAA time. He did lose a full, crucial season of development.

2:20	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think letting him crush AAA pitchers for a few months would be a bad thing.

2:20

Erik: If you’re the GM of an overperforming but still probably bad team (say this year’s White Sox), at what point do you think about switching from selling to buying? If the White Sox still occupy a playoff spot in a month or so, should they add pieces to help them secure that spot, or sit tight and continue on the normal rebuild path?

2:20	Dan Szymborski: I personally don’t.

2:21	Allen: Myers is off to a hot start, but his plate discipline is nowhere to be found. Do you see him being able to remain consistent with his current K:BB ratio?

2:22	Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen him chase a lot more than he used to in the few padres games I’ve watched this year (YOU watch them!), but I imagine that he’d adjust if it stops working ojut for him

2:22	Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell a guy with a .600 slugging percentage htat he should be a little more selective!

2:23	Gub Gub: Were you a fan of Black Sails?

2:23	Dan Szymborski: It’s actually on my list to watch that I haver not

2:23	Van by the River: See anything you like in Daniel Norris’s profile? Had a nice game against Indians, and swinging strikes have improved last few games. Is he a post-mid-breakout breakout candidate?

2:24	Dan Szymborski: I’ve laways though he’d be good. When his slider’s been on, ti’s been REALLY on this year

2:24	Jack Wagon: Edwin Diaz struggling big time, were we (the collective baseball fandom community) too high on him going into the season?

2:24	Dan Szymborski: I think it’s very dangerous to draw too-deep conclusions from a month, especially from a reliever

2:24	rustydude: The obvious answer to what was wrong with Rendon was the Szymborski “April” considering how he murdered the ball on April 30th. What would you expect from him going forward?

2:25	Dan Szymborski: May to September

2:25	Joe: What’s your take on Rhys Hoskins?

2:25	Dan Szymborski: It’s getting damn hard to not give him a promotion

2:26	Dan Szymborski: Now, he doesn’t strike me as a good OF type, but I wish the Phils had at least been trying him.

2:27	JimLindeman15: Mike Matheny writes Aledmys Diaz in at #2 every game. The Cardinals are 24th in MLB in wOBA out of the 2 spot. Never change, The Skipper.

2:27	Allen: I know everybody at fangraphs loves paxton, but why doesnt he get mainstream media attention?

2:27	Dan Szymborski: If he keeps pitching like this, he will.

2:27	Oscar Gamble: Back to back chats!? Is this normal for Wednesdays? You guys really don’t want me getting anything done at work

2:27	Dan Szymborski: We’re bringing down the economy, one business at a time

2:28	John: can senzatella keep this up, or will he be a victim of coors?

2:28	Dan Szymborski: I remain skeptical

2:29	Hold the Odor: Is Thor drop-able in a 10 team redraft league? 3 DL spots and currently have Rodon, Gray, and Haniger on the DL.

2:29	Dan Szymborski: Sadly yes,

2:29	Dan Szymborski: Though I’d stall as long as I can

2:29	Dan Szymborski: Until you have to make the decision.

2:29	Dan Szymborski: It’s strongly looking like 3 months at least now.

2:30	Dan Szymborski: They’re not revealing everything obviously, but the fact that he’s getting a second opinion is a red flag

2:30	Greg Bird: So… it’s going to get better for me, right? I really want to believe Steamer, ZIPS, etc… tell me they aren’t all wrong.

2:31	Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t even all that optimistic.

2:31	Bork: Did you know Mat Latos is not a very good pitcher?

2:31	Dan Szymborski: Cat Latos is a very chill cat though.

2:31	Dan Szymborski: Makes me sad, Latos really was a terrific young pitcher.

2:31	Ken: Think this is just a slow start from V-Mart, or is this the new him? What are you seeing RoS?

2:31	Dan Szymborski: Very worried. He’s dangled off the cliff before, but this is the worst.

2:31	Andrew P : What’s wrong with the Gausman? What’s different than last season when he looked good?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: I’m trying to figure that out myself.

2:32	Dan Szymborski: It’s not just that he’s walking guys, he really seems to be missing his intended spots.

2:33	Dan Szymborski: He’s simply throwing in these random meatball pitchers and batters are now waiting for those.

2:33	Pb&Js: What more does Aaron Hicks have to do to get a full-time gig?

2:33	Dan Szymborski: He had a .644 OPS coming into this season.

2:34	Tim: Who’s your favorite athlete with a Z in his name?

2:34	Dan Szymborski: Z-Man Tom Zenk of course!

2:34	Pinstripe Wizard: If one were to use Cistullian as an adjective, what would one be describing?

2:35	Dan Szymborski: A process of putrefaction.

2:35	Matt: Do you consider a pita pocket to be a sandwich, Dan? Because if you do, then explain to me HOW IS A HOTDOG NOT A SANDWICH?!?!?!

2:35	Dan Szymborski: No

2:35	Zangief: Is anyone as maddeningly inconsistent as Matt Moore?

2:35	Dan Szymborski: Samardzija?

2:35

P: Gambler’s Fallacy is brought up frequently when it’s suggested a player is going to hit a home run because he’s “due”. I understand how being “due” is falling in to the trap, but given a season’s worth of stats are the accumulation of hot streaks and cold streaks it seems that applying the fallacy as a blanket statement removes the human element from the numbers. More to the question, it seems the gambler’s fallacy suggests a batter will have an even performance throughout the year while the human element dictates otherwise. How is that accounted for? Or did I just fall flat on my face and describe the issue.

2:36	Dan Szymborski: It makes the assumption that there’s a predetermined number of hot and cold streaks and players just use one up and have an extra of the other remaining.

2:36	Dan Szymborski: And if this was true, in-season projection models wouldn’t perform most accurately by weighting to-date performance fairly heavily.

2:37	Dan Szymborski: If Gambler’s Fallacy was an actual thing, if you projected a guy to hit .300 and he’s hitting .400, you would now project him to hit less than .300 now. Do that and you’ll have the worst model out there.

2:37	Tek: Aaron Judge a 6 win player this year?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go crazy

2:37	rustydude: I often have a recurring dream that I’m the most mediocre player in the NBA or MLB and that I got there just by having a damn good agent.

2:37	Dan Szymborski: STERLING HITCHCOCK

2:37	Andrew P : On the other hand Ryan Flaherty has had an illustrious career for a minor league player. Perspective!

2:37	Coop: Is the ball juiced this year?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: No

2:37	Matt: I believe it is the “most mediocre” player, Dan. As a writer, you should English better.

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Words mean what I say they mean. And when I use a word aggressively, I pay it a little extra.

2:37	Gub Gub: If you found 200 dollars on the street, how would you waste it?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Turning it in.

2:37	Matt: Most overrated and underrated dessert?

2:38	Dan Szymborski: Overrated: Ice Cream. Underrated: Flan

2:38	Matt: Does zips now think Luis Urias is a top 50 prospect

2:38	Dan Szymborski: Don’t do in-season projection updates for thje prospect list!

2:38	Nats fan: What is realistic to expect from Ryan Zimmerman over the course of the season given his incredible, clearly not sustainable but extremely enjoyable start?

2:38	Dan Szymborski: Well, you do have to make your expectations increase quite a bit. He was looking toast to me too, but toasty players don’t hit like this that often, even for a month

2:40	Cody Bellinger: Are they really going to send me back to the minors!?

2:40	Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll think it over long and hard how to get Bellinger full-time play if he keeps hitting like this.

2:40	Dan Szymborski: They don’t want him on the team as a role player after all

2:41	…: are the cubs’ first inning woes just statistical randomness or is it an actual issue?

2:41	Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried

2:41	Babe Lincoln: How will we know when Amed Rosario is ready? Vegas is such a launching pad.

2:42	Dan Szymborski: You have to challenge your top talent. He’s not being challenged right now, at least how it appears.

2:42	Dan Szymborski: And increasingly, the Mets chances are slipping enough that they NEED him to be ready

2:42	Ryan: The Tigers are just going to ride this out to 84 wins, aren’t they?

2:42	Dan Szymborski: That’s about where they are.

2:42	Kent Clark: Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/3/17 by Dave Cameron

2:42	Dan Szymborski: He posted his own.

2:43	RotoLando: Well, did you dump the pot?

2:43	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it was just sitting there in the edge of the driveway

2:44	Bryan: How significant of an event will it take for MLB to address the situation of pitchers throwing at a guy’s head? Say Machado got hit in the face, broke his jaw and misses 3 months. Do they finally take action? As long as the worst penalty is a 4 game suspension, nothing will ever change.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: Nothing will ever change without someone dying or something, sadly enough.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: (And probably 2% of MLBers could probably tell you who Ray Chapman was and even fewer really think much about him)

2:45	Dan Szymborski: Carlos Quentin got 8 games for a blatant charge that seriously injured Greinke.

2:45	Nick: What do you attribute to Joe Mauer’s poor offensive numbers thus far? Terrible BABIP but the K% is lowest in the league, GB% is down and FB% is up.

2:45	Dan Szymborski: He’s the world’s most overpaid singles hitter.

2:45	Robert: What would be the WAR of a DH who hit 1/5 with a hr and 4 k every game?

2:45	Dan Szymborski: 200/200/800? Probably 4.

2:46	They got chicken in Philly??!!: If the basepaths were five feet wide and players could run around in them at will to avoid tags, how different would baseball be? Asking for a friend.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that different. It would just change how they approach tag situations.

2:46	On the Rocks: Have you seen what Ryan McMahon is doing in his repeat tour of AA (.364, 4HR, 4SB and 16Ks in 88 ABs) and is playing 1B, 2B and 3B. Do you think he gets called up to the majors by mid-season?

2:46	Dan Szymborski: Not called up, the roster’s kinda tight.

2:47	Josh Black: Did you know May is Internal Audit Awareness Month?

2:47	Dan Szymborski: I did not know.

2:47	Bleh: Can Trumbo just start hitting dongs please

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Let’s keep it PG guys.

2:47	Matt: Big S. Little z.

2:47	Bryan: Is it fair to freak out about Jordan Zimmermann? Doesn’t seem hurt but the stuff really isn’t there

2:47	Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to be very worried.

2:47	Sim: People are worried about Bundy due to his velo being down. He has looked pretty good though what are your thoughts?

2:47	Dan Szymborski: I’d like more strikeouts, but as an O’s fans, I have a lot larger worries!

2:47	Lemons and Lemonade: Would the Nationals be better off moving Turner to CF and giving Difo regular at bats as opposed to letting Taylor play CF?

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Marginally, yes.

2:48	Mike: Are you as high on Charlie Morton as Dave Cameron is?

2:48	Dan Szymborski: Sure. At his rate of improvement, he’ll be throwing an Alcubierre fastball by the time he retires.

2:48	FlanGraphs: I would like an update on the cats and the condiment situation in your fridge, please.

2:49	Dan Szymborski: Galileo has a scab on his nose from where Mercutio kicked him in the face. Pandora was howling because I hadn’t put together her water fountain and she had to drink from a bowl like a prole.

2:49	Dan Szymborski: (It has to go through the dishwasher or it gets slimy!)

2:50	Dan Szymborski: Nothing super interesting on the condiments front. I did get a dijon mustard to replace the one that I was using that expired in 2011.

2:50	So Taguchi: Do you think we’ll see an increase in young hitters going overseas to get reps, like Thames? Seems like typically contracts would get in the way for most guys.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:50	Dan Szymborski: It’s already been happening long-term.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: The Greg LaRoccas of the world have found a lot more fortune in japan than in the upper minors.

2:50	Matt: Perfect Dark was better. ducks

2:51	Dan Szymborski: We did most of our gambling in Goldeneye though.

2:51	Don Gale: Who do you want ROS — Franco or Longoria?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: Longoria

2:51	Robert: Is a baseball a sandwich?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: It’s a wrap

2:51	Hold the Odor: Think Thor pitches again this year?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:51	Bork: How did you slash your foot in the bathroom? Are you a hobbit? Do you have to shave off some hair on your feet?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: I broke a glass and I missed a really large shard that got wedged between the garbage can and the wall.

2:52	Dan Szymborski: And walked by and slashed my foot open from under my pinky toe down to about halfway down the side of my foot.

2:52	Dan Szymborski: When I cut it, I immediately and quickly put on a sock I was holding.

2:52	Dan Szymborski: And went to the bathroom.

2:53	Dan Szymborski: And when I stood up, I realized that there was a huge bloody pool under my foot

2:53	Dan Szymborski: and I had left a trail of blood from the kitchen to the bathroom

2:53	Dan Szymborski: (it was like 2 in the morning)

2:53

Carson Cistulli: Dan Szymborski, making his fortnightly…? Wednesday appearance on a Wednesday. So what say you, Dan Szymborski? Is Noah Syndegaard’s lat yet another example of the cavalcade of miseries that is the human condition? Is the incompetence of the Mets front office- insofar as their medical team – a microcosm of the maladies that plague us all, that we are all faking our way through life?terrfied of being found out as frauds!Furthermore, Why do you hate me, Dan Szymborski?

2:53	Dan Szymborski: You’re not the real Carson, I do not smell brimstone.

2:53	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Oh look, Dan finally made it. Hooray!! /s

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I was in Baltimore the last two Wednesdays

2:54	Dan Szymborski: And my very nice companion, she would have murdered me if I spent time chatting.

2:54	Eric Shortenhagen: did you ever run that Zips on Jae-Gyun Hwang?

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I did, he made the ZiPS DMB disk and is on the spreadsheet

2:54	Matt: Jury Nullification is generally the only moral outcome. The laws are unjust, Dan. The laws. They’re UNJUST.

2:54	Guest: Which team out of the slow-starting contenders has the best chance to turn it around? SF, NYM, TEX or TOR?

2:54	Dan Szymborski: SF

2:54	ManBearPuig: Is your nickname Dan “Cyborgski”. Because it is now.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I am the Digital Dandy

2:54	Ben: What’s your first move to correct the Nats bullpen, and when do you do it?

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Beatings

2:55	Babe Lincoln: IF Cutch is just a 4th outfielder now, who has the steeper/more shocking fall: Cutch of Andruw Jones?

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Andruw I think

2:55	Taco Wednesday: Is Dylan Bundy’s velocity drop concerning to you? Any chance he’s hurt?

2:55	Dan Szymborski: DONT SAY THAT

2:55	FlanGraphs: Have you seen the new Dark Tower trailer?

2:55	Dan Szymborski: I have not

2:55	Matt: Chris Taylor with the Dodgers made some swing modifications this winter and they seem to be working out in a big way…just a hot April or is he more than just a role player going forward?

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Hey, he got a pretty good projection anyway!

2:55	Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him as nearly average coming into the season.

2:55	HappyFunBall: Are you a Thames believer? As in, that he’s going to really play out as a top-20 or so bat?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: Top 20? No. But the power is real

2:56	Jim-Bob: In the 2nd half of last year, Freddy Galvis was the 10th best SS in the MLB by WAR. So far this year, he’s 8th. He’s playing GG defense. Is he playing his way into being a piece of the core in Philly?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: I think he’s more playing his way into fetching a piece of the core in Philly

2:56	Richard: Who will eventually break out of their slump faster, Byron buxton or Keon Broxton?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: Double B

2:57	Probably not John Coppolella: At what point does Matt Kemp become an attractive gamble for someone at DH? He seems to have turned over a new leaf since arrival in Atlanta. . .

2:57	Dan Szymborski: He’s not a bad gamble at DH. He just never should be in the field

2:57	Travis: How long until Freeman is known as the best 1B in baseball?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: He may be now.

2:57	incandenza: Did I miss it, or did you just not do chats this April so you didn’t have to give the same answer to all the reactionary questions?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: No, I like pissing you guys off.

2:57	Dan Szymborski: It’s just that the weeks immediately after opening day are the best time to travel.

2:57	RA : I’m trying to push the idea of using a knuckleballer as an ‘opener.’ The idea being to let him pitch the first 3 innings every other day to take advantage of the knuckleball hangover affect on top of the first time through the lineup bonus. Any chance this could work?

2:58	Dan Szymborski: Maybe, but I suspect it’s too cute to really be practical.

2:58	incandenza: Favorite card from Journey to Un’Goro? Overall review of the set

2:58	Dan Szymborski: Elise.

2:59	Dan Szymborski: It’s a good set. The meta is the best it’s been in a long time

2:59	hscer: “I think it’s very dangerous to draw too-deep conclusions from a month, especially from a reliever” the entire Nats’ bullpen exhales

2:59	hscer: senzatella, what does that mean in italian? i know enough to know it’s italian but know what it says

2:59	Dan Szymborski: It sounds like some kind of bread salad

2:59	Dan Szymborski: (Panzanella is that)

2:59	Dan Szymborski: maybe it’s got something else in it

3:00	Billy Beane: DId you see Sonny’s start? Any thoughts. He was really good except for the three monstrous home runs. (Which is a pretty big except)

3:00	Dan Szymborski: I did not, actually

3:00	Mike: What are your thoughts on Domingo Santana? I’ve remained stubbornly optimistic with him so far

3:00	Dan Szymborski: I’m in your bin.

3:00	toki: Why is Kemp even in the NL anymore? He can’t field that many games a year….

3:00	Dan Szymborski: If he’s a 180 OPS+ guy, well, that makes up for his defense!

3:00	Erik: What’s more likely: someone beats a healthy Trout to the top of the batter WAR leaderboard, or someone beats a healthy Kershaw to the the top of the pitcher WAR leaderboard.

3:00	Dan Szymborski: healthy kershaw

3:00	Villar Redux: If Delino DeShields (aka DDS, aka The Dentist) keeps his job, he’s this year’s J. Villar, right? .320-30 OBA, 5-10HR, 40+ SB?

3:00	Dan Szymborski: Too optimsitic for my blood

3:01	Garza Gifs: Do people need to relax on Schwarber a bit? While it seems like he is a veteran, he has a total of 400 at bats only. I don’t think we can really tell exactly what he is or isn’t yet.

3:01	Dan Szymborski: I tried WARNING people that he isn’t without risks.

3:01	Dan Szymborski: But it’s hard when you see his power to remember that!

3:01	Hmm: Is Corey Seager basically a young Joey Votto at short? Batted ball profiles very similar

3:01	Dan Szymborski: You mean the WORST PLAYER ON THE REDS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL BAD THINGS EVER BECUASE I’M A BRENNAMAN?

3:01	Sam: Is Aaron Hicks good enough to trade Brett Gardner?

3:01	Dan Szymborski: No

3:01	hscer: Raviolis as a sandwich is unbelievably patently absurd. Who eats 20 sandwiches in a sitting?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: I think I’m too old to be allowed to punch my sister

3:02	Andrew: Most overrated and underrated desert?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Overrated: Sahara

3:02	Dan Szymborski: ‘Underrated: Gobi

3:02	Fart_Balloon: Jorge de la Rosa – are you buying his recent success as transition to the bullpen? ZiPS forecasts regression, but those projections are based on his SP data, right?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the relief projections would be different.

3:02	Ajay: A healthy Shohei Otani makes 32 starts in the MLB this year, how many WAR as a pitcher only?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: 4

3:02	hscer: Allow me to modify someone else’s question: If you found 200 dollars on the street in the form of ten 20’s rubber-banded together with a post-it on them saying “For use by finder,” how would you waste it?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Deposit it into my bank account.

3:03	976: Where is Hyun Soo Kim a good fit? Because its not “on the bench”.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: One of the teams Buck doesn’t manage. Preferably one that can use him as a DH.

3:03	Babe Lincoln: If you think ice cream is overrated, then you’re a Communist.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: Sorry, it’s true.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: And I say facts, not opinions!

3:03	Matt: Eric Thames and Aaron Judge enter a cage match. Each gets a baseball bat, though Thames’ is slightly longer to account for his size disadvantage. Both players fight to the death. Who walks out?

3:03	Dan Szymborski: Eric Thames is the veteran, so I t hink he’d have a trick up his sleeve

3:04	Dan Szymborski: like a poison dart or something

3:04	hscer: “toasty players don’t hit like this that often, even for a month” I bring you the five weeks Danny Espinosa had from late last May to early July

3:04	Dan Szymborski: I said that often!

3:04	Boom: Could Judge realistically finish the year with a 270 avg and 40+ homers?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: I suspect that the 40 is likely but he’ll probably dip BA

3:05	Matt: When does Aaron Judge get created in your WWE game?

3:05	Dan Szymborski: Probalby not until next year. I already made a Betances.

3:05	Dan Szymborski: I left open the raeaction button, whevere that is

3:05	Dan Szymborski: Matt didn’t quote the poop.

3:06

Dan Szymborski: <blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>The Elimination Chamber, featuring the Betances Buster. <a href=”https://t.co/Jo81E63wvE”>pic.twitter.com/Jo81E63wvE</a></p… Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href=”

Dan Szymborski

@DSzymborski

The Elimination Chamber, featuring the Betances Buster.

28 Mar 2017

“>March 28, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src=”//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

3:06	Dan Szymborski: For those that don’t have Twitter.

3:07	Dan Szymborski: This is the most recent one, a ladder match to determine the best 3B.

3:07

Dan Szymborski: <blockquote class=”twitter-video” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Who's the best 3B in baseball? There's only one fair way to choose: LADDER MATCH. <a href=”https://t.co/xM5dFwiHMw”>pic.twitter.com/xM5dFwiHMw</a></p… Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href=”

Dan Szymborski

@DSzymborski

Who’s the best 3B in baseball? There’s only one fair way to choose: LADDER MATCH.

15 Apr 2017

“>April 15, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src=”//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

3:07	Billy Beane: Since some pro players are aware of/read fangraphs… Do you think any of them have ever asked a question in a chat (presumably during the offseason)?

3:07	Dan Szymborski: In a chat? Probably not.

3:07	Dan Szymborski: And yes, players are aware of FG quite widely

3:07	Garza Gifs: I vote John Mabry the most mediocre player of all time. No years with War above 2 or worse than -2. Career WAR 1.0. Played 14 years!

3:07	Linus: Q: What’s the difference between Billy Hamilton and Delino DeShields? A: DeShields didn’t cost you a seventh round pick…

3:08

Bill: The Machado/Sox thing reminded me of a USA Today report from late in the 2015 season finding that a large majority of bench-clearing incidents are precipitated by conflicts between players of different ethnic backgrounds, with over half involving conflicts between white and Latino players. The rhetoric advanced by the typical white party to such conflicts, with its emphasis on “respect for tradition,” bears *at least* a superficial resemblance to white supremacist rhetoric. Why doesn’t baseball treat beanball wars the way, say, UEFA treats racist taunting? Will it eventually be forced to treat it that way? — Regarding studiously apolitical statistical-analysis sites, same question.

3:08	Dan Szymborski: I’ll keep this open for readers to think about, but I stray away from the more charged stuff like this.

3:09	Billy Beane: Why is Ervin Santana sorta good now?

3:10	Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked at the data actually, but he seems to be getting some crazy movement this year.

3:10	Dylan: If someone hit a home run every game thats a minimum of 162 runs added to his teams total. That’s gotta be way more valuable than a 4 WAR

3:10	Dan Szymborski: But it’s a lot of outs

3:10	Dan Szymborski: 1/5 with a HR is an 200 OBP.

3:10	Guest: Avisail Garcia for real or do you assume regression is on the horizon?

3:10	Dan Szymborski: Oh, regression is coming.

3:11	Dan Szymborski: I get a BABIP from his hit data FAR below his crazy one.

3:11	hscer: I just looked up Alcubierre and it kept me from making a Dalkowski reference. well, until now

3:11	Broke: What’s the most you would spend on a dishwasher?

3:11	Dan Szymborski: I think I spent $500 on my current one when the old one died

3:11	Dan Szymborski: Depends what features there are.

3:11	Dan Szymborski: I want mine to be pretty effective, what with me accumulating a massive amount of dirty dishes in my office for a couple weeks

3:11	R. Gsellman: I can’t throw as hard and the ball isn’t rotating like it used to. I might have a twinge in my elbow… What’s going to happen to me?

3:11	Dan Szymborski: It’s your body, I’m sure you know it better than any old MRI

3:12	Matt: There once was a man from Nantucket. We all know of this man, and the size of his appendages. But do we really believe that only once was there a man from Nantucket. I feel like there have likely been many men from Nantucket.

3:12	Daniel: Is cheesecake a pie?

3:12	Dan Szymborski: No

3:12	Matt: Dan, I demand that you have that other imposter Matt removed from the chat. If you need some advice as to the best method, I would consult United.

3:12	FlanGraphs: I think it’s obvious that Dan Szymborski, despite his online personality, is so financially and materially secure that 200 dollars is more of an annoyance than anything

3:12	Dan Szymborski: Heh

3:13	Chuncey Wiggins: I’m going to Japan in three weeks…what baseball oddity should I return with?

3:13	Dan Szymborski: WEIRD FISH ICE CREAM

3:13	hscer: ??? ?????? ???? ? ???? ???? ?? ???? ???????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?? ???

3:13	hscer: crap, that was supposed to read you should make sale to have machado beat the crap out of him

3:13	Dan Szymborski: My god, if the russians are involved with Fangraphs now. CISTULLI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111oneoneone

3:13	Dan Szymborski: Who keeps posting the poop?

3:13	Babe Lincoln: Biscuit or busket?

3:13	Dan Szymborski: What the hell is a busket?

3:14	Dapper Digital Dandy: Fun Fact: The Delaware state motto means “A Hot Dog is Not a Sandwich But Ravioli Is”

3:14	Dan Szymborski: OK guys, gotta go. Hope to see you all next week!

3:14	Dan Szymborski: DAMN POOP

3:14	Dan Szymborski: AH POOP

3:14	Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on the Twits.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/3/17