Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/11/26

Dan Szymborski: We seem to be having technical issues

Dan Szymborski: Nobody can log in and ask questions.

Dan Szymborski: And I tried it myself!

Dan Szymborski: Unless there’s a fix, we may need to 86 the chat this week. Unless people want to hang around as I share my idle musings about whatever stupid thing I’m thinking about currently.

Dan Szymborski: (And no, people should not want to hang around for that)

Dan Szymborski: If you’re reading this, hit refresh and it shoudl work now!

crossedup: Is this thing on

Dan Szymborski: OK, I have an empty queue because of the technical difficulties, so this is your opportunity to ask me WHATEVER about ANYTHING. Even if I don’t know the answer!

John: Looks like it is fixed after refreshing the page!

bacala: Spencer Jones 111 wrc+ from zips? Thoughts ?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s CRAZY as a projection. There’s upside, but there’s real downside because he misses a frigging LOT

Dan Szymborski: If you don’t connect a ton, you have to REALLY connect when you do, like Murakami. And Jones CAN, but tehre’s risk

Envy Angel: Hey, Dan. If I were foolish enough to want to create my own projections, and if I wanted to individualize for each stat, would I adjust each stat’s reliability factor, adjust the weights for each year of stats, or do both?

Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of ways to skin a cat. Honestly, playing around with Marcel first might give you ideas on things to test

Dan Szymborski: Wait, ARE THERE a lot of ways to skin a cat? It seems like it would be straightforward

crossedup: On the prospect side of the house; any prospects who’ve made significant projection gains this so far this year?

Dan Szymborski: I can tell you in a minute, but it will be a couple weeks out of data since that was my first MEGA RUN

robertobeers: A Dan a man a chat do you project IBB See Tyler Rogers, regorrelyteesbbitcejorpuoyd

Dan Szymborski: I do project IBBs

Dan Szymborski: OK, as of 5/28

Dan Szymborski: the most improved offensive wRC+ for guys 24 and under

Dan Szymborski: Jordan walker, Jonah Cox, Victor Figueroa, Jason Schiavone, Mike Sirota, Luis Lara, Miguel Ugueto, Franklin Arias, Yohandy Morales

Dan Szymborski: biggest drops: Brennan Orf, Jose Salas, Ryan Stafford, Jose Cordoba, Joseph Redfield, Gabriel Goznalez, Daivd Mershon, Victor Acosta, Jhonkensy Noel

Dan Szymborski: I’ll get pitchers, but let me do questions now that we have a queue

bacala: Does Lombard play a role for NYY this summer ?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll appear, but I don’t think it’ll be long unless there’s an opportunity to start.

Dan Szymborski: Injuries help of course, as would Jones splatting

Dan Szymborski: becuase then MAYBE you go with some combination of a Grisham Bellinger Lombard OF

bcat31: I don’t understand the talk about Tatis, Jr’s. homer outage, he’s only one home run back from Guerrero Jr.

Senior Caminero: What do the Jays do with Max Scherzer? The production has been awful, but I feel like the situation is complicated by the fact that he’s a slam-dunk HOFer who demands a bit of respect. Do they release him? Bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: I think you have to talk with him and discuss that something is going to have to happen, and the best way for it to happen that doesn’t cause any embarrassment

Dan Szymborski: But he HAS to be out of the rotation if you’re serious about competing, I think

Dan Szymborski: yes, only six starts, but he’s been bad and REALLY contact-able in those starts

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: The Mets recently featured a Skyline Chili Egg Roll when the Reds rolled into town. Personally, I think a deep fried shell is too heavy of a medium for Skyline chili. I would suggest serving it as-is in a ziplock bag with a spork.

If you wear cargo shorts you can bring your whole family’s meals back to your seats *in your pockets* without the delicate balancing act of open top hot dogs, chicken tenders, fries, etc. Plus, if you have leftovers, it’s already in a resealable container.

Dan Szymborski: Anything that causes you to eat it is too heavy a medium for skyline chili!

Dan Szymborski: REQUIRED IMAGE

Dan Szymborski:

crossedup: Please don’t skin cats

Dan Szymborski: I won’t, cats fight back!

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: The Matt Damon guy from Ben’s chats has been missing lately.  Don’t you worry, Dan, I’m not going anywhere, even when Tim Tebow’s thunder thighs inevitably turn to mush.

oaktownblues: ZiPS was, I thought, surprisingly low on Tyler Soderstrom coming into this year (I think he had 1.1 WAR projection?). Has it come around on him any more in the time since then?

Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t optimistic about his defense, so that’s come up a bit

Dan Szymborski: but the offense is nto that far off

oaktownblues: Nick Kurtz now at nearly 800 PAs with a 168 wRC+ to start his career – do you think that’s his true talent level? Or do you think he’ll end up more of a 140-150 wRC+ guy?

Dan Szymborski: I think a 150-155 is most likely

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: How do you think zips will accommodate for A’s players moving from Sacramento to Las Vegas?  I would ask about guys that started in Oakland but we know those won’t exist by the time the LV ballpark opens.  Will it be years before zips can normalize the ballpark differences?

Dan Szymborski: poorly, I assume!

Dan Szymborski: The first year is going to be a guessing game

Dan Szymborski: dimensions themselves have a very weak game at predicting the factors

ransohs: are you excited for the world cup?

Dan Szymborski: No, soccer/association football really isn’t my thing at all

Dan Szymborski: No aspersions on those who are really into it, I’m just not

Dan Szymborski: My enjoyment of sports tends to be correlated with how much I liked playing it as a kid

Dan Szymborski: I really loved playing baseball as a kid

Dan Szymborski: I absolutely HATED playing soccer. I like a fairly high ratio of running to doing stuff

Dan Szymborski: NO OTHER WAY AROUND

Dan Szymborski: In baseball, you’re running a lot if something cool is happening that your’e involved in

hamiltonthebabeporter: What did you think of Machado’s comments about the over-reliance on data, specifically for hitters? I know it can be interpreted as a struggling hitter making excuses but I wonder if we’ve also reached a saturation point for sabermetrics and its relevance to hitters.

Dan Szymborski: I think the data clicks with some guys and not with others

Dan Szymborski: I think he got TOO MUCH criticism. It’s not really his job to understand data himself. If the Padres aren’t communicating things to him in a way that he can get actionable info, that’s on them, not so much him

Dan Szymborski: but if he’s just refusing, that would be on him. But I don’t know which is which

oaktownblues: If you’re the A’s do you send down Lawrence Butler or give him a chance to catch up to his (merely below average instead of terrible) expected stats?

Dan Szymborski: PROBABLY keep using him, though be more aggressive at not using him in bad matchups. I don’t think you upgrade on him simply by sending him down

Steven S: Say something good about the Cubs.

Dan Szymborski: I really appreciate Ben Brown helping to make my busts/breakouts list better than last year!

Dan Szymborski: so far

Bob Loblaw: Is this Cubs season over? May and June have not been friendly.

Dan Szymborski: No, Recency bias is a big thing

Dan Szymborski: (And yes, I meant playing Lombard in the outfield, they should be testing him out there already)

Dan Szymborski: I’m not having a brain fart on Lombard. He certainly has the ability to fill in at a corner outfield spot; it’s not a rocket science position that you need real experience on

Person: doesn’t Lombard need a power run before they bring him up? I’m thinking (hoping maybe) more OD 2027 (if there is an OD 2027) (which I think there will be) (parentheses)

Dan Szymborski: not necessarily

Person: Sirota’s Steamer has gone from 82 to 118. since Walker’s ZiPS is 89-108 and he ranks ahead of Sirota on your list, I guess ZiPS is more modest than Steamer there

Dan Szymborski: Also remember these are as of 5/28

soddingjunkmail: Gun to your head, why do you have a gun to your head? Also, who wins the AL central?

Dan Szymborski: The gun to the head questions are strange. It’s a weird thing to threaten a life over!

Dan Szymborski: I can think of a lot of reasons for people to be murderously angry at me

Dan Szymborski: And really, you can just ask me questions. I’m pretty accessible and talkative

njwr: What would the score be of a 9 inning game between the best D3 team and two Shohei Ohtanis? Ohtani is pitching and catching, but zero fielders, so most contact will be a hit. Ohtani gets ghost runners.

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea off the top of my head but I’ll let others speculate

Person: hey “A Dan a man a chat” isn’t a palindrome

oaktownblues: Do you believe in the re-emergence of Zack Gelof? Not quite to 2023 levels, but as an above average regular?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say broadly averagish

Dan Szymborski: True story: I once accidentally said zack gelof wrote I Don’t Like Mondays

oaktownblues: Is Jeff Mcneil toast?

Dan Szymborski: toast? no, but there’s SOME Mailliarding going on

Twangs: Hi Dan- I am befuddled by the closer situation with the CWS.  Taylor is perhaps the best closer not named Miller, but his usage is all over. Last week he came in with a 5 run lead to pitch the 6/7th.  Days after that he closes.  Dominguez has the $20 million contract and would be easier to move with more saves, Taylor getting more saves may mean the WS would pay him more later, or Taylor may start next year.  Can you offer any clarity to this murky situation?  Thanks!

dubykoff: Do you think Grant Taylor is now the White Sox closer? Seranthony Dominguez has been appearing in the 7th and 8th inning lately, and Taylor appears to be the better pitcher of the two. Bryan Hudson got the save yesterday, but Taylor had pitched the ninth and tenth innings the day before and was probably unavailable.

Dan Szymborski: I certainly hope he gets more high leverage innings. I think he’s pretty clearly their best closer. But I don’t want to guess what the White Sox will do because they’re still the White Sox

Dan Szymborski: There’s a long-term thing with the White Sox in that whether they’re bad or good, they never seem quite cognizant of how they got there

Dan Szymborski: So hey, we’re winning with Benintendi, he must be why we’re winning

Brendan Geck: Have you heard of any promising exmaples of how MLB orgs are leveraging LLMs internally? It seems like it’s been a few years now but I haven’t heard many examples of improvements beyond writing code faster

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard anything

Dan Szymborski: I generally talk more theoretical things with front offices

Dan Szymborski: rather than the nitty gritty how they make the sausage

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a reporter, and mostly want to aid my own insight into things rather than report things, but there’s always some stuff I just wont’ get told

Envy Angel: Sorry for the questions about projections. I am just getting started with something because they looked fun, and you are an expert, and I thought the chat would be the best place to ask questions.

Dan Szymborski: It’s fun to do projection stuff. You learn a lot just experimenting

soup: How does zips view Eldridge heading into his early 20s? It seems like he’s already massively over performed all expectations at this age

Dan Szymborski: Ask me when I do the full expectations change in a couple weeks

grandbranyan: Going back to 2023 Brewers position players are +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns, and helping their pitchers to an ERA -0.41 runs lower than their FIP. Picking up half a run a game on the margins over 550 plus games has to be the residue of some sort of good design, no?

Dan Szymborski: The Brewers ARE a really well run franchise generally

Dan Szymborski: if they had the Dodgers payroll, I think they’d be a juggernaut

John Tereniak: Any comment regarding JAWS vs. BOOG for figuring HOF worthiness? Or just a different way of looking at it…

Dan Szymborski: I really enjoy the FG article/reddit commentary on it

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been tinkering with WAA type approaches as well

Dan Szymborski: because I think value and the philosophy of greatness are relatively different

Envy Angel: It seems like Marcels has a blanket set of weights for three years of stats and a general reliability factor based on playing time. If I wanted to adjust both for, say strikeout rate for batters, which seems to stabilize quickly, would I raise the reliability factor, give more weight to the most recent year of stats, or do a little of both?

Dan Szymborski: Both approaches can be valid! The best way to do it is to experiment yourself

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes you find something that nobody else has or that people are underestimating

Brandon Harrison: I think you radicalized me yesterday… I am neither a pirates fan nor a huge Cutch fan, but seeing where he ranked at 28 relative to other CF, I think I must now lead the cause for his hall of fame candidacy.

Dan Szymborski: I fear that I’m one of the writers that is closest, I’m probably in the 90th+ percentile for valuing peak relative to career

kingkash7788: have you found a good 82-0 variant for baseball

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you can

Dan Szymborski: Baseball has too many volatile outcomes

Dan Szymborski: Ever watch a Home Run Derby? A LOT of those hits would be outs. And they’re TRYING to get those guys to crush things

sammysamsam: Something is pretty seriously wrong with Gunnar Henderson, right?

sammysamsam: Any clue what it may be?

Dan Szymborski: Seriously? not sure

Dan Szymborski: For one, the pierpherals don’t support a BABIP TAHT low

Dan Szymborski: but he IS hitting for less power, less bat speed, so he shoudln’t be having as good a year as his career to date

lain: What does ZIPS say about Alec Burleson rest of season compared to start. In my points league, his BA, HR total and lack of K’s is money. Your ZIPS had him as a strong player in my league and it has come to pass. How much regression do you expect in second half?

Dan Szymborski: Some, but he’s not CRAZILY outperforming his expectations

Dan Szymborski: and it’s not like he wasn’t good last year

Person: re llms, now i’m imagining monfort asking gpt if kris bryant will ever play again

Justin Krupp: How many more PAs would you/ZIPs like to see from Bryce Eldridge before making adjustments to his outlook?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you can have such an if/then. It’s a spectrum

smoothio: Which comeback was less likely:  Knicks or Giants?

Dan Szymborski: Knicks I’m pretty sure

Dan Szymborski: wasn’t there WE in the <1% range?

Dan Szymborski: now, DIVISION, maybe giants

Dan Szymborski: but playoffs, knicks less likely

Dan Szymborski: as in knicks comeback % vs. giants playoff %

Cube Jockey: How are park factors adjusted for one off series like the A’s in Vegas where there is clearly a difference in how the stadium plays but also limited data?

Dan Szymborski: I generally use neutral for those

Dan Szymborski: The nice thing about neutral is that everyone understands how to take those stats

Dan Szymborski: “OK, Szym projected a neutral park, but they’re a hitters park in the end, so I can mentally adjust the raw stats up for hitters and down for pitchers”

Dan Szymborski: Using a neutral park when you don’t know is better for providing information to the usersii, since there’s no ambiguity over what you mean

Dan Szymborski: In a way, projecting something in an opaque way that slightly improves projections is arguably WORSE than slightly worse performing projections that have clearer meaning

InsertWittyNameHere: How do I get my cat to stop walking on my head when I’m just starting to drift off to dreamland?

Dan Szymborski: In my experience, you don’t

mmddyyyy: What do writers do in a lockout?

Dan Szymborski: If I remember my 2021-2022 offseason again, mutter “OH FUCK, THE THING I COVER DOESN’T EXIST AT THE MOMENT…AGAIN!” a lot

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been hoarding ideas for if we have a prolonged work stoppage this time

Dan Szymborski: more ZiPS Time Warp

Dan Szymborski: and I’m thinking of doing a series on interesting players who seem largely forgotten for some reason or another.

Dan Szymborski: while I was musing on Toby Harrah on social media

Dan Szymborski: I called this series in the heat of the moment as FanGraphs Member Berries, but the reference is probably too obscure

mmddyyyy: Does the union have any say in expansion?

Dan Szymborski: PLEASE NOT THAT I AM NOT A LABOR LAWYER, AND IF YOU WANT ONE YOU SHOULD GO BUG EUGENE FREEDMAN OR SOMEONE

Dan Szymborski: I suspect they do, simply because it was including in the CBA that the owners had the right during the agreement to add up to two teams

Dan Szymborski: and the EFFECT of expansions can always be negotiated over, to the extent that they affect workplace conditions

mmddyyyy: How would you recommend taking caffeine?

Dan Szymborski: You should not take health advice from me!

mmddyyyy: Are your work dreams about baseball or writing or ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: actual WORK dreams involve writing about baseball

Dan Szymborski: sometimes i wake up really bummed

Dan Szymborski: because I have a recurring dream genre that is “Me having a mundane, realistic dream that involves me doing my work the next day”

Dan Szymborski: and I will wake up feeling like I already wrote my piece and then realize that I still ahve to write it

Dan Szymborski: though sometimes dreams will help in that way, because in my dreams, I’ll go over many of the actual arguments that I use

Dan Szymborski: Now, not all dreams are like this

Dan Szymborski: if you perused my dream log you’d see a LOT more things like:

Dan Szymborski: “I got in a fight with Hunter Strickland in an elevator but we agreed to a truce because we had to team up to pass Brexit for some reason.”

Dan Szymborski: “I was talking with Albert PUjols during spring training 2019 and he decided to retire after getting schooled by a hardthrowing submariner pitcher for the Dodgers from AA, Peaver Stockfriars.”

Dan Szymborski: “I’m guest hosting an ESPN show called “Feed the Discussion” which is a lunchtime sports argument show in which people argue about sports and eat food. It went well, though I introduced myself as just Szymborski. I’m given a second episode, but this time it’s set in Malta for some reaosn and there’s no discussion – I just eat food. But weirdly, it’s South American food. For the last thing, I’m brought penguin meat, which looked like beef and was served raw and it was fairly lemony.”

Dan Szymborski: One of my dreams IS kinda coming true

Dan Szymborski: “George R.R. Martin took a sabbatical from writing The Winds of Winter so that he could write the entire Webster’s Dictionary in Dothraki.”

InsertWittyNameHere: Enjoyed your McCutchen piece.  Which current player are you most excited to do that exercise with?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it feels like cursing them! lol

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Bryant

Dan Szymborski: He’s not making the Hall of Fame now, and he might have

Dan Szymborski: I might do one with Bryant/Baez/Rizzo

HappyFunBall: I would imagine that the MLBPA would be, generally, pro-expansion. While the details do matter, it means more MLB jobs!

dubykoff: Why on earth would you want to pass Brexit?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, I wouldn’t have personally!

Dan Szymborski: There’s also a dream in which I get into a fistfight with Steven Goldman and I’ve always liked him!

MMM: Is Jac Caglianone a thing now?

Dan Szymborski: Ic ertainly hope so since I’ve been stanning him aggressively since spring training last year

Multiphasic: It wasn’t a dream, Hunter Strickland has gotten in fights with literally everyone for literally every reason.

Multiphasic: Squirtgun to your head, what makes ZIPS continue to believe Jackson Holliday will continue stepping up to above-average player? How long a shadow does minor league excellence cast? When will lightly armed people stop asking Jackson Holliday questions in Fangraphs chats?

Dan Szymborski: A lot of it is simply that there’s a lot of uncertainty and there’s an especial amount of uncertainty on very young players who haven’t had a breakout yet

Phil: Does the ZiPS projection for a player change over time while that player is out with an injury? I’m thinking particularly of Roman Anthony–my personal expectations for the rest of his season have gotten worse and worse the more he’s faded from the conversation, but I’m wondering if, per plate appearance, ZiPS feels the same way. Insofar as it has feelings.

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t until he comes back, if that makes sense

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ want to commit ZiPS to predicting a future injury unless it’s a very straightforward one like TJ surgery

Dan Szymborski: so when someone gets back from an injury, it’ll know “Knee, 55 days”

Dan Szymborski: but it doesn’t know it ahead of time, if that makes sense

Person: well now you’re going to get everyone who members member berries saying they member them, while those who don’t will stay silent, the combination giving a potentially false impression of their obscurity

InsertWittyNameHere: What other mass consumed thing (eligion, politics, eating, pooping, etc) would you most want to see SABRized?  Meaning, a bunch of nerds crunch numbers and the subject matter is exponentially better understood and mentally processed?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, poopemetrics sounds interesting

HappyFunBall: The Brewers will never have the Dodgers payroll. It is, however, quite possible that the Dodgers hire away the Brewers’ front office

Dan Szymborski: But it woudl be more fun for the Brewers if they had the Dodgers payroll!

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, time fo rme to head out for another week

Dan Szymborski: thanks everyone who stuck around whilei we figured out the technical difficulty

Dan Szymborski: well, not that *I* figured it out. Sean Dolinar figured it out. I just whined abou tit

HappyFunBall: I take that back. MIL could have the LAD payroll.  But it would require a salary cap with floor such that the band is very narrow.  And that’s not happening anytime soon