Dan Szymborski: It is noon. It is a time for chats.
12:01
My name is Judge…: Now that the White Sox are in second place should they pull the trigger and start calling up guys from their farm system to push them closer to a wild car? i of course am referring mostly to Alcides Escobar. BCC: Josh Nelson
12:01
Dan Szymborski: ALCIDES KNOWS MORE ABOUT RINGS THAN JOSTENS
12:01
Mooseknuckle curves: Can Erick Fedde become a viable starter for the Nationals? He hasn’t gone deep into a game yet, but has avoided giving up the big inning so far.
12:02
Dan Szymborski: I think he can be. The Nats really were too optimistic about counting on both Anibal and Heckickson.
12:02
Captain Ron: Dan, what the hell?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: What’d I do this time?
12:02
LFC UCL CHAMPS Mike: Good Monday Dan..a glorious weekend it was. Can Cleveland now start tearing down and send Bauer to?????. Happy Birthday month.
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Just gotta remember all the Dan carols.
12:02
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Does Ji-Man Choi offer anything that Nate Lowe doesn’t?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Not particularly.
12:02
Gio’s Giolito Gelato: Which teams would get the biggest boost in Zips from adding Keuchel/Kimbrel?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: I’m doing an article!
12:02
Concrete Fan: Happy Birthday Dan! With what dish are you going to celebrate this supposedly very fun day?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: The Dan birthday season starts on June 1st, but it’s only the 19th. Gotta leave time for shopping days and sales.
12:03
Khaki Segura: Phillies fans: “No, we’re not saying Bruuuuuuce”.
12:03
JoeyBoomBats: Thought experiment: Mike Trout is demoted to AAA for a month. Over or under .450/.600/.800?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Probably under – I think you get diminishing returns.
12:03
Dan Szymborski: If you look at Trout vs. the crappiest pitchers he’s faced, I dont’ believe he has an OPS of 1400
12:03
CT: Dan, is this the week we see the inevitable regression of Austin Riley? 5 of 6 matchups are against RHP. 35% K rate, 2% BB rate paired with an inflated BABIP against RHers. Not to mention going to Pittsburgh and Miami, not exactly bandboxes…
12:04
Dan Szymborski: He’s going to come back to earth, but he’ll still be good. It’s not like he’s some 29 duffer who crushed pitchers for two weeks
12:04
RJ: If forfeiting draft picks was a concern, shouldn’t Keuchel and Kimbrel deals be done by now?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: If it comes out there was something agreed to before the draft, the team will almost certainly lose the picks they would have lost *and* additional picks.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: MLB has been very clear that any QO shenanigans will be punished severely.
12:05
Sam: In roto are machado and Syndergaard a good return for arenado, or should I look for a better return? Thanks
12:05
Dan Szymborski: It works for me.
12:05
Matt Damon: MAD DEMON!!!
12:06
Joe Don: I suppose you’ve noticed which team now holds the AL 2nd Wild Card position. Didn’t you sort of predict this back in March?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: I certainly did’t precit the Rangers.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: predict
12:06
Dan Szymborski: I still dont’ think they have lasting power
12:06
Dan Szymborski: staying power
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Lasting power seems too sexual
12:07
James: Yordan Alvarez was intentionally walked 7 times in AAA this week. Other than the fact that the Bonds treatment shows his readiness for the big leagues, shouldn’t that be frowned upon? Aren’t the minor leagues for development?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Most players aren’t really being developed. If nobody wants to win, the games would be boring.
12:07
Bee: Buzzzz buzzz buzzz
12:07
LFC UCL CHAMPS Mike: O’s prospects Mountcastle and Hays ( would have been a great 80’s TV show title) had very good weekends in AAA and AA. Do you see Hays getting to Baltimore before Mountcastle as 1B is blocked? Mouncastle does have an issue.. 42K’s bust just 7 BB in 192 AB this year.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I think if they want to promote Mountcastle, they’ll find room.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: It’s a danger to be too excited about strikeout rate when a guy is crushing the ball.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Mountcastle’s slugging near .600. He’ *incentivized* to be aggressive at the plate.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Now, obviously Mountcastle’s not in the same class of prospect, but there were similar concerns expressed about Kris Bryant
12:09
Dan Szymborski: In this here very chat!
12:09
Dan Szymborski: (The Dan Szymborski chat, not today obviously)
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Now, Bryant walked more
12:09
Dan Szymborski: But people were very concerned about he strikeout rate
12:10
Dan Szymborski: If Mountcastle is slugging .600, he’s getting his pitches. So what’s he going to wait for? The pitches tha tmake him slug .700?
12:10
Husky Harris: What do you think of Bray Wyatt’s FireFly Fuhouse–and whether you like it or not, how will wwe manage to eff it up?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: WWE mucks up everything with apathy-injected writing.
12:10
Concrete fan: In how many years (if ever) do you expect the Orioles to be relevant again?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: It’ll be awhile. The O’s are enough of a mess that it’s going to be a LONG fix.
12:10
Magic Kingdome: Chili . . . Hot Dogs . . . Ketchup/Catsup . . . These are the foods that bring grown adults to blows. In an effort to heal a divided nation, what is the least the controversial food?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: bacon
12:11
Mark: Any theories on why ZIPS likes Shane Bieber so much?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: It likes players that sound like teen pop stars?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: He has had good peripherals
12:12
Husky Harris: When are you going to pin someone for the 24/7 champtionship? This reeks (not of awesomeness) of the 24/7 Hardcore Championship, when it was an excuse to get little used wrestlers on screen for 10 seconds at a time instead of building real stories.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I have to admit it, seeing Crash Holly get ambushed at random businesses and have a referee with them amused me
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Really, wrestling at random businesses always amuses me
12:14
Dan Szymborski: like Steve Austin ambushing Booker T at a grocery store
Ryan: Is there an easy way to look at what a team’s record is after a loss? By tallying myself looking at their schedule, I saw that the Twins are 15-3 following a loss, and I’m curious how that compares to other teams.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Not a quick way that I can think of
12:16
James: Is David Dahl finally what we hoped he’d be? did that oblique injury delay his power?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Yes and yes
12:17
Magic Kingdome: Which of the O’s younger guys (age 26 or under and currently in the majors or AAA) has the best career?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Mountcastle
12:17
Phillip: Vaughn or Torkelson?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: O’S BETTER TAKE ADLEY
12:18
hscer: is sausage in a hoagie roll a sandwich?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: No
12:18
Gub Gub: Is anyone playing today? What is this?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Four games
12:18
Magic Kingdome: Best carnival food?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Giant turkey leg
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I don’t care for funnel cake because the person I’m with will always get powdered sugar all over me
12:19
5-tool guy: Dan, what tools were you advertising for your draft status ahead of tonight?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got a couple mowers in the garage that aren’t working that someone could repair
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I think one needs the carb cleaned, don’t know about the other one
12:19
The Wizard of Ozzie: ZiPS 3 year projections still has Ozzie of Albies at 4+ WAR over the next 3 seasons, does Zips take into consideration the value of htting from both sides of the plate? Do you belive at some point he bails on hitting from both sides on focuses soley on hitting from the right or left side?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: The year-to-years aren’t updated in-season
12:20
Dan Szymborski: And there’s no real ZiPS application
12:20
Hbp: Has Zips ROS not been updated with Giolitos recent string of success, or is it still placing substantial weight on previous seasons? This looks like a structural change that’s not being taken into consideration by any of the models (yet?)
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than ZiPS
12:20
Dan Szymborski: the in-season model is simpler so that it can be run every day
12:20
Moe’s Que Toes: bzzzzzzzzzz bzzzzzzzzzzzz *bites you* *flies away* bzzzzzzzzzzzzz
12:20
Dan Szymborski: What is with you people?
12:20
Mountcastle Lasting Power: Dan if you were an afterschool special who would play “you”?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: With the loss of Philip Seymour Hoffman, there’s nobody who can capture both my luck and gravitas.
12:21
Guest: I submit that the world has gone a little too bacon crazy. It does not need to be added to everything.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Disagree
12:21
Mike : Hey Dan– do I stay patient on the Yordan Alvarez stash, or swap him out for Kyle Tucker? Not sure who’s coming up first.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Be patient
12:21
Kris Bryant: I was so bored in St. Louis this weekend I was asleep at the plate. 2 for 13 with 7 strikeouts. BORRRRINGGGGG
12:21
Trixie: Wouldn’t it make sense for the Padres to select a Bishop (Hunter) in the MLB Draft?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: He’d outrank them then
12:22
Dan Szymborski: They alreayd tempted fate by taking 2 of 3 from the Cardinals
12:22
Khaki Segura: Nick Markakis is third amongst active players in PA and in the top 200 all-time. I don’t know what to do with this unsettling information, so I give it to you.
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Markakey Bryan
12:23
Alby: I was getting ready to made a ham sandwich — mustard on the bread ready — when I found I was out of ham. So I cooked a hot dog and wrapped it in a piece of bread with mustard (I added relish, too; I’m not a barbarian). Sandwich?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: If you wrapped it it’s a wrap. You have to have the perpendicular pressures applied to bread
12:23
Obvious: How could you
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I’m a bad, bad mand
12:23
Dan Szymborski: man
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I misspelled man.
12:24
Magic Kingdome: How bad are the Royals that Dozier, Mondesi, Merrifield, and Gordon are wildly exceeding their projections and they are still the second worst team in baseball?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: They’ve grandmastered lousiness.
12:24
Mike: Do you think we’ll ever get temperature splits? We have splits by location, pitcher/batter hand, inning, leverage, etc, but we don’t have anything that says “hey, this guy stinks when the gametime temp is 50 or below but he’s pretty good when it’s 80 or above” and it’s not like they don’t record the game time temp for everything anyways, so…we should have it I think.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Dunno if we have the data. I know BR does
12:24
Gub Gub: Did you see the new heavyweight champion of the world? He’s an inspiration to fans of a certain stature.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: LIKE ME
12:24
Dan Szymborski: well, if I was way stronger
12:25
Dan Szymborski:
12:25
t-dog: Better Kevin: Sorbo or McAlister?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Sorbo
12:25
David Fletcher: Tell me my future
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Next year I predict it will be 2020
12:25
Scott: Own both Montas and Paddack in several leagues. Great
12:26
Mountcastle: Sounds like a beer
12:26
T-dog: Is sausage, egg, and cheese—stacked between a biscuit—a sandwich?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:26
Magic Kingdome: For your afterschool special, what about Kevin James in a wig?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: He can capture my lighter side.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: But afterschool specials have to capture the darkness inherent in 12-year-olds
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Can Kevin James match my burning intensity?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I was actually disappointed peer pressure wasn’t what I expected in high school.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Nobody threatened to beat me up unless I smoked a cigarette.
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Cigarettes aren’t cheap!
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Like, zero people actually cared that I didn’t smoke.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Where was the grand moment where I say NOT TODAY PUNK, KEEP YOUR CANCER STICKS and the bully making me smoke ran away crying?
12:28
Billy Beane: Dan, what’s your go to burger recipe?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: 1. Ground beef.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: 2. Fire.
12:28
Dan Szymborski: (Salt and pepper)
12:28
hscer: with Rutschman hitting .427/.584/.772, there’s surely some level where Trout could do that .450/.600/.800 that was asked about. maybe A+? also Adley Rutschman sounds like someone who should have played from 1898-1910 or something
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Well, if we go that low, certainly
12:28
Dan Szymborski: AAA pitchers just aren’t THAT bad
12:28
O’s Woes : Happy birthday season! Is DJ Stewart the best gift the o’s get this birthday season? Do you think he produces like a major league ballplayer?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: I’m not positive, but I hope the O’s try and find out
12:29
T-dog: Dan why doesn’t this page discuss NASCAR? Left wing agenda much?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: They go around in circles.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: And I’d hardly be described as left-wing.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Remember, I’m in the Sarcastic Libertarian Baseball Nerd clique (McCracken, Snyder, Perry, Welch) not the Social Media Woke Baseball Nerd clique.
12:34
T-dog: Thoughts on Ranked Choice Voting for govt elections?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: It does tend to make sense.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: But nobody wants my desired election reforms.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’d remove parties from ballots and have candidates randomly ordered for each electronic ballot.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: (I consider that advertising)
12:35
RJ: Do your cats seem apprehensive about the draft?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Only if it delays diner
12:35
Alby: Nah, if it’s a slice of bread it’s not a wrap.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: If you’re wrapping it around something you are
12:35
T-dog: Three slices of bread eaten at the same time: bread sandwich?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:35
Guest: Would you agree that scheduling meetings at 11 am should be an offense taken to the ombudsman, and potentially fireable?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Sure
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Meetings at all!
12:36
IMAGES FOREVER SEEN: Dan..ALWAYS dry your hair before bed.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t intend to doze off.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Something I’ve discovered as I’ve entered my 40s
12:36
Dan Szymborski: is that I don’t rebound from nights of no sleep that well
12:36
Dan Szymborski: and I’m sometimes up to 5 AM/6 AM because I’m into something I’m working on
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Like the other day, I decided to make some edits on my defense stuff at 3 AM
So I have a breakdown of what types of hit are at each degree. There’s a fudge factor (or to be fancier, data smoothing) because stringers aren’t going to perfectly plot points.
But it results in some fun (and useful) data. For example, based on the last decade of minor league data, here is the probability of single/double/triple/outs for each degree of difference from that home/CF line.
2 Jun 2019
12:38
Alby: If I put a hot dog between two slices of bread, then it’s a sandwich? Jeez, you’re a sticker. I used to make PB&J by putting PB on one half and jam on the other and folding it in half. Not a sandwich?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Folding is a hinge.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: the pressures are different
12:38
Al Gone Quinn: Better Kevin, Sorbo or Newman?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Still Sorbo
12:38
T-dog: Better Kevin: Sorbo or Bacon?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Bacon
12:38
T-dog: Is Alex Bregman offputtingly arrogant or the right amount of confident to be likeable?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s appropriate
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I don’t mind players talking trash and stuff.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I just don’t want them throwing baseballs at each other
12:39
Mike : What do the Brewers do with Keston Hiura when Shaw comes back? No way they can send him back to San Antonio right?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Unless he slumps horribly, no way he’s going back
12:39
Alby: Just wanted to add, your chats are the best, not just on FG but anywhere.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but there’s survivor bias. You’ve chosen to stay.
12:39
draft: woah whats this about a draft tonight? like why dont they just shut the window mann
12:39
T-dog: Are s’mores a sandwich?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:39
Dan Szymborski:
12:39
Dan Szymborski: I’m a structural purist, ingredient rebel
12:40
Red Foreman: ZiPS ROS is only projecting 53 more games for Senzel this season. Should he hire some bodyguards to stop the guy locked in your basement that does the ZiPS from getting out and making this projection true?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Remember, ZiPS is intentionally left agnostic on this kind of thing, based on past
Oberyn: ive noticed the bat projections seem to have more players having a higher hr rate than the others. you think steamer/zips might be too conservative or the bat too aggressive>
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m not sure what Derek’s using for league level of offense in season
12:42
Redleg: Dan, time to start getting worried about Puig’s lack of success at the plate?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Yes. He’s been *way* too aggressive at the plate. The Dodgers did a better job in recent years at toning down some of his worst habits
12:43
The Mighty Bostone: Have you ever been close to tragedy or close to folks who have?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Personally speaking, none that I am aware of
12:44
Dan Szymborski: my dad and mother’s father were in wars
12:44
Dan Szymborski: My dad saw a lot of crap and drank himself to death over 25 years after coming back
12:45
Dan Szymborski: My grandfather, on the other hand, appeared to have enjoyed WWII. And every pitcher of him in his unit, he was the smallest one and always looked the happiest.
12:45
RJ: If the Tigers keep developing pitching prospects, are Niko Goodrum and Jacoby Jones going to be enough offense?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.
12:45
T-dog: If all cats are curious, and curiosity kills the cat, how have they survived as a species? I get the nine lives thing, but given their curiosity is perpetual, I’m just not buying that.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: What’s forgotten is that the cat usually kills curiosity
12:45
CamdenWarehouse: what in hell is a birthday season?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: When all the dan birthday sales are coming so you can get your shopping done
12:45
billsaints: Myles Straw was awesome fun over the weekend. Dives, steals, that ‘routine’ grounder to Semien he beat out by a full step. Home runs are fun, but so is that :).
12:46
T-dog: In the movies Homeward Bound, why is Chance given a bad rap? Seems Shadows insistence that home is just the other side of the mountain is what almost got the whole gang killed.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: I actually did not see it, so someone else would need commentary.
12:47
birdfan1: Hey Dan. I need SP help. Any long-term value in Plesac or Smeltzer – or just mirages?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: They’re both at least interesting. Depends on what the other choices are
12:47
David: Is a hot dog a sandwich if you split the bun into two pieces?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: yes
12:47
David: What can the Mariners expect to receive in return for their veterans if they eat some money?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Still not that much
12:47
Tim: Does ZiPS think Markakis breaks 3000 hits?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: No
12:47
LFC Mike: Your wethead picture made you look like the mayor from any small town in Fla. that got busted for running a huge meth operation…..
12:47
Dan Szymborski: If I were on meth, I’d be thinner!
12:47
Alby: Is a sloppy joe a half-assed chili sandwich?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:47
FrankieBones: Brewers keep Hiura up, then there’s 4 players for 2 spots at 1B and 2B. Recipe for nobody being happy.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers manage
12:48
Jason N: How can I get out of my daughters dance performance this weekend? I love her, but it’s at Disneyland and a) it’s this Saturday b) right as summer vacation starts c) in the opening month of the Star Wars thing.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Burner phone + bomb threat?
12:48
Red Sox: I… don’t think we’re making the playoffs this year.
12:49
T-dog: What is Dan’s second favorite sport and, in 4 words or less, why?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Football
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Smashing is fun
12:49
crewbrew: Is Shaw a bench bat when comes back or starter?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s likely he becomes a sub
12:49
Dan Szymborski: In the short term
12:49
Billy Beane: Hey Dn, when you say there is data smoothing do you mean, you smooth the data or the stringers do?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I smooth the data
12:49
PS: How much of park effects are temperature? Would it make sense to adjust for temperature first, then park residuals?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’ve never tried to isolate it.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Since climate “comes with” the stadium in a sense that we’re rpedicting
12:50
oops: if you ever get sick from a food what does said food need to do to “make things even” again? asking for a friend thx
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Time
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I once got sick from scallops and I couldn’t look at a scallop for years
12:50
Magic Kingdome: Which breakfast cereal would make the best ice cream flavor? And it cannot be like cookies ‘n cream where you just mix the cereal (instead of Oreos) into ice cream — there is nothing added, just ice cream flavored like the breakfast cereal.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Honey Bunches of Ice Cream
12:50
nisher: Are you buying this version of Glasnow moving forward? Even after returning from strained forearm?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: The injury is of course a concern and it’s my biggest one
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Otherwise, I think he’d be just fine
12:51
LFC Mike: One would think a well known regional chain located in Ohio might just have some kind of options for Dan’s birthday shopping……
12:51
Dan Szymborski: JUNGLE JIM’S
12:51
Dan Szymborski: If you’ve never been to Jungle Jim’s, imagine a store double the size of a walmart supercenter and just for foodies and drinkies
12:52
Dan Szymborski: countries have their own AISLES
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I don’t mean that there’s a “hispanic food” aisle. There’s a Singapore aisle. And a Hungary aisle. and a Malaysia aisle. and so on.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: And each region for beer has its own massive aisle
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Sorry had to reconnect
12:55
Willing Participant: I have never participated in a Dan chat. Let’s do this!
12:55
Dan Szymborski: IS ALMOST OVER
12:55
T-dog: Ham sandwich falls on floor. Slice that hit floor thrown away. I’m out of replacement bread. I eat the sandwich with single bread
12:55
Dan Szymborski: It’s a giant hors d’oeuvre
12:55
T-dog: is two pieces of pizza —stacked together toppings down—a sandwich?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:56
Dan Szymborski: so long as they’re disconnected
12:56
help: Cat update?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Galileo is upstairs. He’s been pleased because we ate some feta
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Mercutio was chased here awhile ago by Cassiopeia. He ventured back out and haven’t seen him since
12:57
Confused Foodie: I would never get out of a Jungle Jim’s…hopefully they are open 24/7
12:57
Dan Szymborski:
12:57
Dan Szymborski: That’s just half the HOT SAUCE section
12:58
Dan Szymborski:
12:58
Dan Szymborski: JUST HONEY
12:58
Dan Szymborski:
12:58
Dan Szymborski: 1/3 of the cheese section
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I Haven’t had lunch
12:58
T-dog: Fastest dan has ever driven in a vehicle?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I took my Mazda 6 to 105 in I-83 once
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I could have done more, but I chickened out
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t tend to aggressively break laws
12:59
Dan Szymborski: and I also like not being dead
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Since I’m old and boring and the car is slower anyway, I haven’t taken my crosstrek above about 85
1:00
T-dog: Dans biggest critique of himself?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Need to exercise more, I’m quite undisciplined, I don’t have as much empathy as I should, I have to watch my temper
1:00
LFC Mike: When you don’t have a Dan chat for 2 weeks this is what happens chat anarchy at its finest…
1:00
Dan Szymborski: I swear, I’m not even singling these out!
1:01
Dan Szymborski: People know I have the Weird Chat, so come here
1:01
Guest: if you’re eating a taco that tears at the hing mid-eat, did you just experience a change in the state of matter to a sandwich?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:01
Dan Szymborski: But you should be eating proper tacos anyway
1:01
Daniel: Would the Yankees sign Keuchel if he agreed to shave his beard but wanted to wear a fake beard when not on the pitching mound?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Heh
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I think if the Yankees were, they would have by now
1:01
Appa Yip Yip: After Edwin Jackson’s epic meltdown in Colorado on Friday, I got curious: is it possible for a starter to pitch so poorly they accrue one (1) full negative WAR in a start?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, but I believe implausible
1:01
Al Gone Quinn: have you ever tried being dead, at least once?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Not yet
1:02
Cops: Dan, these are punishable offenses! You are coming with us big guy!!!
1:02
hscer: I’ve hit 90 before, but I thought that should be impossible since something allegedly occurs at 88
1:02
Dan Szymborski: You have to have a delorean. Duh.
1:02
Adam: Who, in your professional opinion, is history’s greatest Dan?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Dan Castellaneta
1:02
T-dog: How fast can dan throw a baseball?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t thrown one for awhile. Back i high school, I topped out about 70
1:03
Guest: Dan, I don’t believe your assertion that you’ve travelled higher than the speed limit. Travelling faster than the speed limit is expressly against the rules, and we all know that banning things stops them from happening.
1:03
Blue Jays Fan: Hear anything of what the Blue Jays do at 11?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: While I have some ideas, this is a McDongenhagen question!
1:03
Trey Anastasio: Holding both Cease & Luzardo in my dynasty league, only have room to hold onto one. Who has more of an impact this year and long term? I need to cut one. Thank you!
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I think Cease short-term, but I love Luzardo’s ceiling
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Cease may be “safer”
1:04
bjoak: I know we’re not selling jeans here, but should we have viewed Jose Ramirez’ bad body type as an ominous sign for such a dynamic player?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t necessarily think so
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Remember when David Ortiz was going to age horribly?
1:05
Morbo: T-dog, NASCAR only turns left and is therefore left-wing, if anything Dan refusing to discuss it is his right wing agenda.
1:05
Wireless Joe Jackson: Who will be the next non-Astros AL West champs, and in what year?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: I think Rangers will be next champs, but in a few years
1:05
isaacmeep: Is Pedro Severino’s newfound power (and overall hitting ability) real? Statcast thinks so but the projection systems haven’t bought in yet.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS in particular isn’t picking up this kind of data in-season
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Simply becuase, again, it takes about 45 seconds to run per player in the full model
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Remember, regular ZiPS has to find a cohort for each player on the fly
1:06
Dan Szymborski: So every player’s expected current baseline has to be compared to every estimated baseline for baseball history (and minors going back to late 60s now)
1:06
T-dog: Have you ever been brought to tears by a movie? Which one(s)?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: A movie, never.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: I’ve teared up in role-playing games though.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: My sister cries at everything
1:07
Dan Szymborski: movie-wise
1:07
Dan Szymborski: She cried at the end of cool runnings
1:07
Dan Szymborski: She didn’t see the Star Wars movies until she was an adult. I watched Return of the Jedi with her and she was crying towards the end. She even shouted, in tears “Luke, let go of your hate!”
1:08
Dan Szymborski: She cried more for Return of the Jedi than for having a baby last week!
1:08
Roscoe P. Coltrane: Is Josh Donaldson droppable in a 12 teamer?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: No
1:08
Slurve: How exactly does a player improve plate discipline? With reaction time and pitch & location recognition it seems like it would be so hard to improve other than just seeing a TON of various pitches/deliveries – which of course is hard if you are benched, young, etc.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: The way you improve everything: practice
1:08
T-dog: Believe in intellectual property protection by force of law?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I’m actually torn and still pinning down my exact beliefs. I don’t think it ought to be in the *criminal* realm, but I’m still not positive on the nature of an idea in this context. Physical property is easier
1:09
Confused Foodie: Beer, Pizza, Pasta….I can never remember the 4th food group?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Taco.
1:09
Andy: If you ran a meth operation, you surely would be smart enough not to consume your own potential revenues, right?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I would hope so.
1:10
T-dog: Best game show?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Press Your Luck!
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Also honorable mention for Name That Tune
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Because the format was awesome.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: “You know what, I can name that tune in ONE note!”
1:11
Dan Szymborski: <B-flat plays>
1:11
Dan Szymborski: “Why, that’s My Blue Heaven by Walter Donaldson!”
1:11
Dan Szymborski: <wins money>
1:11
j: I feel like bacon is in fact an extremely controversial food given the amount of religions that don’t eat pork
1:12
Dan Szymborski: That just increases the bacon reserves for everyone else
1:12
Morbo: Man, Dan doesn’t like my comments today, and that makes me a sad news monster
1:12
Jason: The day of the draft and this is your chat. Where’s Kylie when you need him
1:12
Dan Szymborski: They’re chatting later!
1:12
T-dog: Most beers Dan has drank in a day? (Approx)
1:12
Dan Szymborski: 20
1:12
T-dog: more exciting play: triple or diving catch?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: triple play
1:12
Dan Szymborski: I guess I have to chose one of those?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Triple
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Because some diving catches wouldn’t have been diving catches for better players and that knowledge upsets me
1:13
Optimist or idiot?: Jason Vargas has given up only 1 run in 5 of 8 starts, and 2,3, and 4 in the other 3 starts. Any chance he’s been better than he’s given credit for?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: No
1:13
Sean: What game(s) have you been playing lately?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Total War: Three Kingdoms
1:13
Slurve: How exactly do the Yankees get away with the no facial hair thing? Has it ever been challenged legally?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I guess technically it could be somehow?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: For religious reasons?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the laws
1:14
T-dog: Your sister sounds empathetic.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: She wasn’t growing up, but she eventually became so. She works in oncology!
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing about my family: we’re a bunch of friendly, upbeat, high-functioning sociopaths
1:15
T-dog: Dan, re: Intellectual Property, I suggest give Stephan Kinsella a read/follow. (Libertarian IP lawyer and very accessible)
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Thanks
1:15
Max Fried: If fried food were abolished, which fried food would be most profitable to sell illegally?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Donuts
1:15
Dan Szymborski: You could hide them with the baked ones
1:15
Sean: I drove from Indy to Dayon on Saturday to visit the Air Force Museum. Along the drive, we went on I-75 through where the tornado touched down. That was insane to see tornado damage in person. It’s unbelievably sad.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that was crazy
1:15
Dan Szymborski: I was just goofing off on Twitter last monday night
1:16
Dan Szymborski: And I heard the civil alarm sirens!
Hmm, I swear I just heard the Kettering, Ohio emergency siren and since it’s not 12 PM the first Monday of the month, I better go check the weather.
28 May 2019
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m well to the south of the city, so I was OK once the tornadoes starting going more easterly
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Just missed my sister, who lives in Yellow Springs.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: She had a weird week – her and her husband closed on a house, moved, and then she had a baby, all in a week, and she still did her oncology shifts until Tuesday (induced labor on Thursday)
1:18
T-dog: Can Dan dance?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Dan can not.
1:19
T-dog: Yankees are a private entity that can set their own standards for dress code/facial hair. There could easily be an exception for religion, and the Yankees would certainly not fight it.
1:19
Guest: You can dance if you want to, Dan. You can leave your friends behind.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I don’t base my friendship on whether my friends can dance.
1:20
j: Is a short stack of two pancakes with fruit between them a sandwich
1:20
Dan Szymborski: If you’re picking them up, yes
1:20
Dayn Perry: DAYN. PERRY.
1:20
Al Gone Quinn: What has Dan ran? (other than a chat and ZiPS iterations, that is)
1:20
Dan Szymborski: up a large summer electric bill until the A/C died and I replaced it with one that didn’t suck
1:21
Dan Szymborski: (apparently most people don’t spend $300 a month)
1:21
Matt: Well, as I understand it, Dan, your friend don’t dance. And if they don’t dance, they are no friends of mine.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Well, I’m a better and more understanding friend than you are
1:21
STOP!!!!!!!: uwww wewwww…. A whammy!!
1:21
Guest: cookies
1:21
Al Gone Quinn: I cried when Maxamusz went to heaven
1:21
poop: is poop on a stick over a blazing campfire wrapped in two slices of bread still just a delicious sandwich if you add bacon or does it become a “breakfast” sandwich? asking for a friend
1:21
Dan Szymborski: It’s a sandwich, but a bad one
1:21
T-dog: Does Dan stand for national anthem at ball games?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Yes, but mainly because not standing is in essence a political statement. And I rarely make political statements
1:22
Joe: The Orioles shouldn’t screw around and just pick Adley, right?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: ADLEY ADLEY ADLEY
1:23
dezre: Can we expect big things from Renato Nunez, or we just seeing a hot hitter playing in friendly confines?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Big things? No. But he may be a stopgap for awhile, like Adam Duvall
1:23
HappyFunBall: If you pick up a Beef Wellington, is it a sandwich?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: More of a wrap
1:23
j: Follow up question: Does that mean that a hamburger is not a sandwich in France, where most people eat it with a fork and knife? This seems fishy.
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Correct
1:24
Dan Szymborski: The forces applied are different
1:24
bleepbloop: I have Arenado in a couple keeper leagues and I’m getting the feeling now is the time to sell. Do you think we are at (or past) peak Arenado value, or would draft time next year be better?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: If you can get more than he’s worth, absolutely sell.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: For any star at the top of their game, the average future expectation is worse.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Even Trout
1:24
T-dog: Better Donaldson: Josh or Rebecca?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Josh isn’t going to jail.
1:24
bleepbloop: Kris Bryant is having a nice bounce back season with the bat, how do you think his hitting results (actual results, including home park) will compare to Arenado next year?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Since he’s hitting with power again, I think he’s comparable
1:25
Tel: If the Royals have grandmastered lousiness, what can we say about the O’s?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: The O’s didn’t think they were going to contend.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, it’s time to end chat for another week.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming,e veryone!@
1:26
Morbo: Wait, the Royals thought they were going to contend this year?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: They were even talking about wild card a few weeks ago. Will have to find quote
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
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LFC Mike
5 years ago
There goes Hiura to AAA.. I blame the week off from chatting for Dan being rusty on that call.
Dan Szymborski: It is noon. It is a time for chats.
There goes Hiura to AAA.. I blame the week off from chatting for Dan being rusty on that call.