Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/2019

Dan Szymborski: CHAT IS HERE

Justin: What does a fair trade for Felipe Vazquez from, say, the Dodgers look like?

Gub Gub: Where’s the beef?

Dan Szymborski: Oops, scroll

IsIt2020Yet?: Huntington says no way they’re trading Vazquez. With this core looking at best like a .550 team, why the heck not? Who cares if he’s still closing a handful of games for a middling team in four years?

Dan Szymborski: They probably should. While I wasn’t the least bit crazy about the Archer trade, my belief was for it to work out, it had to mean that they were going to double-down and finally adopt a win-now priority in the offseason.

Dan Szymborski: They didn’t

Dan Szymborski: And now I think the team is too weak.

Dan Szymborski: They ought to trade Vazquez.

Dan Szymborski: And he ought to fetch at least *a* very significant prospect given his contract situation.

Dan Szymborski: I’d think something like May and the guy that looks like the head of the Pawnee Sewage Department in Parks&Rec. But I don’t think the Dodgers feel they *need to* do it

Dan Szymborski: Tony Gonsolin! Couldn’t remember the name

Dan Szymborski:

Umpire Joe West: I can’t wait to get booed in England.

Insert Clever Name Here: Highlights and lowlights of the first half of 2019?  Doesn’t even need to be baseball-related.

Dan Szymborski: Baseball wise, my colleague Jay Jaffe is correct that I think there are just too many homers in baseball.

Dan Szymborski: The fun patrol being out in force is a regular lowlight

Dan Szymborski: But a highlight is the excellence of some players when their teams didn’t play service time games with them: Paddack, Tatisito, Sluggery Pete.

LFC Mike: We have to end the controversy once and for all…Slug Bug or Punch Buggy? The world needs a definitive answer for the game that let you beat the bejeezus out of a sibling and have your parents not care at all. slug

Dan Szymborski: PUNCH BUGGY

Dan Szymborski: I support a game called Punch Slug Bug. You punch someone using Slug Bug!

Count Urdzt Von Borktannenbaumst: If you could add one article to The Treaty of Versailles, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski: “Those dumbasses in Ohio must not pronounced Versailles “ver-SALES.”

Slapshot: Would you ever go full DJ LeMahieu and eat 48 olives with a fork and knife for dinner?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like olives *that* much

randplaty: Who do you think wins NLROY?

Dan Szymborski: I think Tatis will edge out in the end.

Dan Szymborski: And really, if we had to vote today and I was voting in that this year, my ballot right now would be Tatis, Alonso, Soroka

Dan Szymborski: And I’m not just saying that since I know you’re a Padres fan!

Dan Szymborski: That guy on Reddit didn’t make one for Soroka, so enjoy Snitker.

Dan Szymborski:

randplaty: Who should have made the ASG over Dahl? Or do you think Dahl was deserving?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not egregious – he’s on target for a three+ WAR season, but I’d prefer Muncy, Machado, or Renfroe.

Matt: The Mets managed to kill off 2 members of the 69 ws team this weekend that were still alive. Is there anything this team can do thats right?

Dan Szymborski: Again, you can remember people that are alive!

Gub Gub: After hearing Don Rickles’ voice in Toy Story 4 this weekend, it got me wondering.  Do you have any plans to hold phantom Dan Chats in the event of your untimely demise?

Dan Szymborski: I had not, but it’s a good idea.

Dan Szymborski: I always keep a few tweets scheduled for five years in the future, so if someone remembers to leave my PC on, I can tweet from the great beyond.

Jorge : Hi Dan!  Question about projections/stabilization.  At what point do the projection systems start believing in strikeout rates of guys like Bellinger who have maybe haven’t improved as much year-over-year, but the projection systems still don’t buy in and say he’ll suddenly start striking out much more than he has all season (or has in any given month). What gives?

Dan Szymborski: It depends. The problem is that there’s no linear answer I can give because it’s not like binary thing where projections don’t believe strikeouts and then suddenly do

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Happy Canada Day Dan!  Turns out Dom Luszczyszyn (aka Dom Smith) does hockey projections.  I mean, with the tough last name and projections common ground how do you guys not know each other?

Dan Szymborski: lol

Dan Szymborski: Szymborski easy compared to that

CT: Dan, will Austin Meadows ever get the chance to be a true full-timer? He seems to be benched semi-regularly against LHP despite a .278/.297/.472 split and 102 wRC+ against southpaws.

Dan Szymborski: Probably

Gub Gub: As much as I like it, I’ve come to the conclusion that the name Hobart is just a little too yokelly for my future son.

CamdenWarehouse: Are you going to lead a tour at SABR next year?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me do stuff. I’ll just be hanging around drinking I’m sure

Xolo: What would it cost for the Padres to unload Wil Myers?

Dan Szymborski: Quite a bit – I don’t think he’ll have a lot of interest

Dan Szymborski: Look at the dismal market for EE

Dan Szymborski: Now Wil.i.be has more defensive value than EE, but still

Ryan: What, if any, improvements would you make to the All Star selection process?

Dan Szymborski: None. The ASG is, for me, the least interesting bit about all-star week.

Dan Szymborski: Futures Game > HR Derby > Extra vacation day > maybe I get tacos > ASG

James: I know it’s unrealistic for a player to hold a true talent BABIP of ~.360+. Then I watch Tatis Jr play and I think, “Yeah, he will maintain his .440 BABIP”.

Bosoxboy: Rafael Devers and Yoan Moncada = legit?

Dan Szymborski: Tentative yes

Dan Szymborski: scary because Yoan always makes me a believer and then he has a .600 OPS for two months and it feels like Santa left me a letter telling me I’m a loser

pieman: SNL or SCTV?

Dan Szymborski: SNL, but mainly because I’ve seen more and am not old enough for SCTV

Dan Szymborski: SNL when good is very good

Dan Szymborski: Which makes up for the bland musical acts and the generally awful recurring characters

Ya Herd With Perd: Is “herding” an issue with projections? The ROS projections on Fangraphs seem to fall within a fairly narrow band of outcomes. I feel like we should be seeing more variance between the different projection systems… but then again, I have no good reason to expect to see that.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like projection systems work DRASTICALLY different from each other

Wylie Burp: Hi Dan. McKay vs. NYY or Paddack @ LAD? I’ll take my answer off the air.

Dan Szymborski: Paddack

Paul: Is Kyle Tucker more likely to be in majors playing for Houston or another team by end of July?

Dan Szymborski: Houston

Martin: Who are your top minor league stashes for potential hitter impact ROS?

Dan Szymborski: If actually were called up now, Bichette and Robert

LFC Mike: Biggest snubs for ASG in your opinion? Shame about  Mancini not making it.

Dan Szymborski: Bogaerts, Sale, Lynn

Morbo: Dan, last night I took a one piece of bread put peanut butter on one half and jelly on the other before folding it in half. I then proceeded to eat the fold thereby creating two non-conjoined  pieces of bread. At what point if any did my snack become a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: when you ate the final hinge

kd: The Knicks NEEDED to give Durant the max, so that he can attract other top FA in the future.  I liken this to when Detroit paid Pudge a lot of money so that he could attract other players to the Tigers.

Dan Szymborski: Would it be churlish to note the Tigers didn’t really make any big signings after that?

Dan Szymborski: The best guys they signed were pillow contracts for Ordonez and Rondell White

Dan Szymborski: Unless II’m forgetting

Eric: Hey Dan! I really enjoy reading stories where you elaborate a bit on the math of ZIPS, and was wondering if there was a place which gives a detailed mathematical description of ZIPS inasmuch as what you’re willing to share?

Dan Szymborski: I talk about it in the ZiPS Q&A let me find it

Dan Szymborski: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/zipsqa.rtf

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s outdated in a lot of respects.

Dan Szymborski: If you have something specific, feel free to hit me up on twitter. “The math” is a *very* loaded questions since ZiPS is ginormous.

Dan Szymborski: At its core, think of it as an exercise in non-parametric modeling

New Guy: 12:02?  Oh my God Dans dead, and the cats did it!

Insert Clever Name Here: Most underrated piece of classical music?

Dan Szymborski: Hummel A minor piano concerto?

Dan Szymborski: It’s as good as the Schumann or Grieg

Dan Szymborski: And there’s a lot of Gottschalk that are fun as hell

Dan Szymborski: Medtner’s piano concertos fit here too

dondybala: If the White Sox trade Alex Colome can they get a top 100 player and another lower level player ?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit rich I think

v2micca: Along the same lines as the Vazquez discussion, which position player really should be traded this year, but likely will not?

Dan Szymborski: Belt

Ryan: Tatis Jr. already has 2.7 fwar in 200 plate appearances. How good is this kid gonna be. Is he already a superstar?

Dan Szymborski: Very. Yes.

DJ LeMahieu: This won’t last BUT. Considering the injuries, maybe the Yankees were due some random thing that was positive this season.

Billy Beane: Dan, I think divisions are pretty dumb. I think that MLB should just have league seeds 1-5 and 4 and 5 have to play the Wild Card game.

kevinthecomic: How come Justin Mason is scheduled to have a chat at the same time as you are?  How come he never does?

Dan Szymborski: The T stands for Tuesday

Dan Szymborski: M is for Monday

Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t chatted for awhile though

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, the fantasy side is separate, you’d have to ask them

Insert Clever Name Here: Seconding the Punch Slug Bug proposal.

New Guy: Holy shit….emojis!

Dan Szymborski: I always allow them!

Dan Szymborski: Plus, you can hit the peanut gallery icon for more mild troublemaking

stever20: what team do you think these next 4 weeks will determine the future of their franchise the most?  Nationals?

Dan Szymborski: Nats. That’s what I said!

Morbo: There are dumbasses in Kentucky that also pronounce Versailles “ver-SALES.”

Dan Szymborski: We can expand the clause for all dumbasses.

Al Gone Quinn: Speaking of weird pronunciations, the people who live in Des Moines, Washington, pronounce it “Deh Moinz”

Dan Szymborski: DAMMIT

Dan Szymborski: I DID NOT NEED TO KNOW THAT

Dan Szymborski: DAN RAGE

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: ARRGGGH

Gabe: Why do the Rays play Choi over N Lowe?  Isn’t N Lowe better now?

Dan Szymborski: I think the thing is that they want to be SURE he’s better because they don’t want him up as a spart timer

Morbo: Dan! Its not your place to tell grumpy old men how to not have fun!

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s in my job description

@RationalMLBFan: Saves are stupid, but Shane Greene has saved 22 of the Tigers’ 27 wins, a rate of 81.5%. What is the record for highest percentage of wins saved over a full year?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I’m not sure offhand

Hunter: Is there any sort of market for Castellanos? What’s a realistic return?

Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t been very good. I don’t think the return will be much.

Dan Szymborski: The Tigers, as they do a lot, took too long

HappyFunBall: So I was just ad-redirected away from FG on my desktop. It happens fairly often on my phone, but this might be a first on my desktop. Someone needs to go yell at your ad providers again.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll bring it up when I talk to Dave

Sam: The difference in WAR between Scherzer and the 2nd best pitcher is the same as the difference between the 2nd best and the 20th best pitcher

seth r: why do you hate my team? also, skyline chili is the best.

Dan Szymborski: I hate everyone. I’m an egalihateian.

@RationalMLBFan: I get that the Luke Voit for Chasen Shreve deal looks bad for the cardinals, but what does ZIPS-favorite Giovanny Gallegos have to do to remind people that he also was in the deal, and that he has pitched 39 impressive innings, which is more than twice Shreve’s total?

Dan Szymborski: Getting the closer job would help!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not unhapyp about the results so far from some of the ZiPS Mega Faves, most notably Bieber, Gallegos, Moustakas

Dan Szymborski: People were a bit annoyed that ZiPS projected Moose at 3.4 WAR coming into the season after only ever doing that in 2015, but he’s now looking like he’ll pass it!

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, can you explain why you think there are too many HRs? Most of the arguments I have seen are really saying that there are more home runs, but I don’t understand the problem.
1. Home Runs are Fun.
2. Any indivudal game only has like 1.5 more home runs.
3. No individual records are being broken.
4. No one cares about team records.

It seems like a bunch of 10 HR guys becoming 30 HR guys is actually fun. I feel like it would be different if Stanton, Judge, and Davis were all hitting 80 HRs.

Dan Szymborski: home runs are fun, but they’re most fun when they’re not cheap

Dan Szymborski: You have to have some meat along with your candy

Guest: Who has more trade value, Joe Panik or Mike Yastrzemski?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly Yaz

Ben: Soroka   

Dan Szymborski: Awsome! I thought I had saved them all

Dan Szymborski: Here’s another, as penance

Dan Szymborski:

HappyFunBall: The fun police are out in force complaining about too many homers in baseball. Is that a highlight or a lowlight?

Dan Szymborski: Not quite what I meant

stever20: If Alonso got close to or passed 50 homers, would the voters really ignore that?

Dan Szymborski: It’d be hard, but the voters are getting better in award voting quicker than Hall voting.

stever20: Not only that, but then when they did an apology yesterday, they mispelled the guys name appearantly.

Dan H: Have you checked out “baseballtradevalues.com,” the site featured on the FanGraphs podcast the other day? I’ve been having a blast seeing if my trade ideas were reasonable, and it seems to pass the sniff test, but I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the values this site had come up with.

Dan Szymborski: I have not yet

Andrew: Are the nats buyers or sellers at the all star break

Dan Szymborski: Could go either way. I think they may pick the worst of both worlds and be toe-in-the-water buyers

troke: Worse team owners: Wilpon vs. Dolan vs. Rachel Phelps from Major League?

Dan Szymborski: Wilpon

Dan Szymborski: RACHEL PHELPS INVENTED MONEYBALL

Dan Szymborski:

CamdenWarehouse: You could just make the ZIPS computer sentient after your death. It could continue chatting and tweeting for you.

Actually I’m not completely sure this hasn’t already happened.

Twinkie for Life: Have these voting emojis and ability to reply to specific chats always been there??

Dan Szymborski: You have to turn them on

Dan Szymborski: I think only I do

Dan Szymborski: As befitting a Man of the People.

AJ: Why do the Astros still have Tucker in AAA?  Hasn’t he proven he is ready and they could move an OF to 1B and DFA White.

Dan Szymborski: They’re trying to not do too much playing time juggling with their young players

LFC Mike: Speaking of your untimely demise Dan…if you passed in the house would one of your cats, the smartest of the bunch I assume, somehow dial 911 for help or type out  a help email and send it to Carson….or would they look at you for a day or two and then start to eat you After your corpse was pummeled by the toy hedgehog😵

Dan Szymborski: There’s plenty of me to eat.

Ryan: If the ASG is the least interesting bit about all-star week, then what would you change to make it more interesting?

Dan Szymborski: replace it with more interesting competitions. SKILLS COMPETITION~!

Dan Szymborski: Note that I’m not saying this would be a good business decision for baseball.

Dan Szymborski: but *I* would like it

Daron: How many teams would you categorize as locks to be “sellers” this month? Which of those team(s) do you think will add the most in prospect capital prior to this year’s deadline?

Dan Szymborski: SF only lock, I think. O’s/Marlins if people want to buy their stuff

Dan Szymborski: Probably Jays as well

Dan Szymborski: Tigers

Dan Szymborski: though not a lock as they’ll hang onto some good assets

Dan Szymborski: and Royals should still be sellers

Daron: Higher rest of season offensive production: Austin Riley or Keston Hiura?

Dan Szymborski: I think Riley’s a bit more well rounded at this stage

Dan Szymborski: but this is insulting with maximum praise

Baghdad Bob : I admire MLB for sticking to the “the baseball is exactly the same as when your grandfather was a fan” story.

CeddyBReady: WHY AM I NOT READY!  Stupid Orioles ruined me!  I’m Cedric frickin’ Mullins! I’M RUINED!

TKDC: Joey Chestnut said 🌭 does not equal 🥪   Debate over?

Dan Szymborski: No, arguments ought to be based on the strength of the evidence, not on an appeal to authority.

Super Rope: Getting really hard for me to see Luis Robert as anything less than the #1 prospect in baseball.  Am I crazy??

Dan Szymborski: there’s competitoin. the wandering franco, Big Cat II, Rhyno,

Chet Steadman: Dan, I just traded my Li’l Tatis for his Snell. Did I blow it?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty risky. Tatisito is 1337

CamdenWarehouse: we pronounce Hereford funny in that part of MD vs the rest of the world

Dan Szymborski: wait, we’re the only ones who say HAIR-ferd?

Dan Szymborski: DAMN HEREFORD ZONE SCHOOLS CLOSED WHILE WE’RE TWO HOURS LATE

v: Those idiots in Illinois also call it “ill-in-oy” instead of “ill-in-wah”

random chat lurker: The nice people in Calais, Maine pronounce it “Callus”

Jim Leyland Palmer: CLE for Castellanos, no? Tigers would get a ham sandwich back, but there is a fit

Gub Gub: If you were the Fire Marshall, would you allow your fire-underlings to fill my swimming pool from the hydrant?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but I probably just stole his/her hat.

Oden’s Raven Inn: Don’t tell Dan about what Atlantans do to pronunciation of Ponce de Leon…

Dan Szymborski: Please don’t

CamdenWarehouse: Galileo would start eating you three hours before his dinner

Dan Szymborski: He’ll sometimes pull my hair if I’m being slow

stever20: are award voters really changing much though?  I mean look at Chris Sale 2 years ago, or Clayton Kershaw 4 years ago.  You say look at de Grom last year.  While true, what was it that won it for him?  That’s right, ERA.

Dan Szymborski: Younger crowd can vote more quickly. First year you can vote.

Dan Szymborski: Stuff like Dante Bichette placing 2nd in 1995 unlikely to happen today

Dan Szymborski: I mean someone just won a cy young with a 10-9 record! Can you imagine that even 15 years ago?

Dan Szymborski: OK, 25 years ago

Dan Szymborski: AND LE ROI WON 13

LFC Mike: Joe West⚾️🐀

Dan Szymborski:

Ghost of Anthony Reyes: Mets trying to find a pitching coach short-list:
Van Wagenen: This guy here is dead
Wilpon: cross him off the then

Jim Leyland Palmer: Morosi just reported the Astros are in on Boyd, but aren’t willing to give Tucker yet. Tucker pretty much has to go for this deal to happen, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Derek in LIttle Rock: I’d prefer Juan Soto to David Dahl, though in a world where nothing matters, this discrepancy is not really worthy of typing, much less publishing to your esteemed weekly chat at FanGraphs dot com, Dan.

Chet Steadman: Followup on 1337 Tatis:BA = .337, xBA = .238; wOBA = .428, xwOBA = .339.

LFC Mike: Would one of your cats feel bad about having to eat you?…or would they

Dan Szymborski: Cats are practical

Insert Clever Name Here: And yet we ignore the most important part of today…it’s Bobby Bonilla Day!

Gub Gub: I think the opposite of candy is plain yogurt

Dan Szymborski: I actually like plain yogurt

Aaron: Excited to see Cease Wednesday?

Dan Szymborski: At the very least, my complaining about his non callups will cease

HappyFunBall: In 2013, Scherzer won a Cy Young with 5.9 WAR. In 2016 he won his 2nd with 5.6 WAR. The next year he won his 3rd with 6.3 WAR

It is now 2019, and Max has 5.0 before the break

Dan Szymborski: I love Scherzer, but like most, I’m biased in favor of things that win me money.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do any NL MVP/Cy/Rookie betting any longer, sadly. Given that I can be called on in any given year to participate in the awards voting, there’s a pretty serious conflict of interest

Cove Dweller: If I want to see MadBum pitch one last time in SF, can I wait until the Cards series?  Or should I go this weekend?

Dan Szymborski: I think he won’t be traded until after the holiday

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: All Star Game would be 10x better if we just voted on a pool of players and two captains drafted everyone playground-style in a televised event.

Guest: Big Cat II? Is there an Andres Galarraga Jr. that I don’t know about?

Dan Szymborski: I always let people figure out my dumbass nicknames that nobody else uses

Dan Szymborski: The Silver Hammer is an easy one

London Yank: There is no reason to prefer the pronunciation of the place name of the people in the original place. For example, people in Alabama call their home state “Bammer” and that is clearly nonsense. If there were to exist an Alabama in, say, France and they pronounced “Alabama” like a proper human, then we should applaud them.

Scherzer: If he was traded to an AL team in the next month, does he still win NL Cy Young?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Tel: No way Wilpon is worse than Dolan.  When Wilpon starts having beloved former players arrested in the stands because they were critical of him maybe we can talk.

IsIt2020Yet?: We’ve got Cay-roh for Cairo here in Illinois

Dan Szymborski: That I was aware of

Tel: Can the Orioles manage a second straight year with their win total less than their division deficit?  That seems like it would be an unprecedented feat, needing a team that is so bad it wins only 50 or so, trailing a great team with 100 plus wins. They’re currently at 24 wins with a 30.5 game deficit, but you’re projecting them to end up with 54 wins and to wind up only 47 games behind the Yankees.

Dan Szymborski: I think they can do it

LFC Mike: shame the White Sox don’t have a catcher called Desist to catch Cease on Wednesday😂 I’m here all week. Thank You

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

LFC Mike: I should be banned for that one🤢🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮

Dan Szymborski: I will bid you all adieu on that confusing and lame note.

Dan Szymborski: BUt one last thing.

Dan Szymborski: We still have tickets left for our FanGraphs Cleveland panel this Saturday.

Dan Szymborski: We’ll also be joined by Travis Sawchik and the CespedesBBQ boys.

Dan Szymborski: The tickets are free if you’re a FanGraphs member. And since there are appetizers provided, if you’re a member, you’re losing money by not going (please dont’ fact-check that last part)

Tom: Re: worse team owners… INCLUDE JEFFREY LORIA IN THAT BATTLE

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, farewell.

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/fangraphs-cleveland-all-star-e…