Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/20
12:04 |
: Hello friends! And enemies! (We don’t have any kind of wall that would distinguish between the two)
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12:04 |
: What is going on with Austin Meadows? Any idea?
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12:05 |
: Gentrification continues. The trendy bars have pushed away a lot of the old historic businesses.
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12:05 |
: (Sorry, Austin Meadows always sounds like an obnoxious trendy city neighborhood)
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12:06 |
: I haven’t heard much about what was going on with him.
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12:07 |
: I wonder if he’d do what I’d do if I was an MLB player? I’d probably use this opportunity to get a vacation right up until opening day by being vaguel absent! Maybe cough a few times
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12:07 |
: Do the zips/depth chart projections account for potential platoon usage? Thinking back to the 1B rankings, the Rays & Nationals felt really low, considering those teams should be well equipped to optimize handedness. A Choi + Jose Martinez platoon could yield a wRC+ comparable to Freddie Freeman’s!
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12:07 |
: ZiPS does. I’m *very* conservative with ABs this year.
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12:07 |
: Thanks for the quality content and chats, Dan. Cat question: how do you get your kitties chill enough to trim their claws? Or do you leave it up to the vet? We try to do ours every two weeks – girl cat is cooperative as she is highly motivated by treats, boy cat is large and doesn’t want to give paw. Thoughts? They are both Russian Blue / Ragdoll mixes.
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12:08 |
: Can’t really chill cats; you have to wrap ’em up in a burrito.
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12:08 |
: (LIke a blanket, DO NOT TRY AND FIND ACTUAL TORTILLAS)
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12:09 |
: The only except was Galileo, who was an extremely chill cat for being a big, alpha cat.
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12:09 |
: Once he started getting hungry for either his breakfast, dinner, or his 10 PM milk, he’d pretty much allow you to do *anything*
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12:09 |
: I do it monthly.
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12:10 |
: Hi! Any players you can see losing position eligibility altogether in the NL with the DH? ie. NL players who transition into full time DH’s this season. Cespedes and Matt Carpenter come to mind.
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12:10 |
: No BIG ones off the top of my head. Carpenter’s a good one.
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12:12 |
: Maybe someone like Hoerner?
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12:12 |
: It’s hard to say on a year like this.
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12:12 |
: Why are some teams slow to put guys on the IL? Chapman still isn’t listed there, while Blackmon is now on it even after making it back to practice
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12:12 |
: Now that’s an easy one.
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12:13 |
: Teams aren’t supposed to put players on the IL with Covid positives.
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12:14 |
: They can’t actually announce any of it.
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12:14 |
: Since MLB/MLBPA agreed that COvid is a non-work injury
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12:14 |
: If Didi opts out because of a preexisting condition, what kind of contract would he expect? Feels like he’s cornered into risking his own safety to extend his career
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12:14 |
: I think he’d get a one-year deal for less money.
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12:15 |
: It sucks, but he *is* a year older.
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12:15 |
: I have two cats and have been working from home since March. Have to say, i really enjoy that aspect of working from home. However, they aren’t the most motivational creatures since they sleep most of the day. Do your cats ever inspire you to take a nap midday?
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12:15 |
: I frequently have a nap in the late afternoon/early evening betweten the end of 1 PM games and the start of 7 PM games.
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12:15 |
: Since I’m such a night owl.
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12:15 |
: Any thoughts on James Paxton’s no beans 1 pound of bacon chilli?
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12:15 |
: Don’t have the whole recipe, but without beans, that’ sa point in its favor
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12:15 |
: Objective analysis is great and all but I’d greatly prefer it if you would just agree with my irrational assertion that my favourite team will outperform their projections ty
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12:16 |
: I DON’T KNOW WHAT YOUR FAVORITE TEAM IS
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12:16 |
: I’m not going to commit and find out I’m helping the hated Yankees!
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12:16 |
: Or, like the ultra-evil early 1990s Blue Jays when they briefly the archnemesis of the our brave hero lads, the Baltimore Orioles.
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12:16 |
: CITO DIDN’T USE MIKE MUSSINA!!!!
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12:16 |
: Assume you had perfect foresight. What headline would you write for the upcoming season, stick in an envelope, and send it to yourself to be opened in November?
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12:17 |
: “Murder hornets now spread COVID-19”
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12:17 |
: Any idea what the Washington football drama is?
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12:17 |
: If I did, I’d be making a HUGE SCOOP not hanging out iwth you guys today! lol
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12:17 |
: I bet it’s cringeworthy though!
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12:18 |
: I hope that the bombshell is that the new name is the Washington Redskin Potatoes. Not that I want them to keep the name, but I’m in favor of whatever amuses me the most.
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12:18 |
: ohhhh hell yeah it’s family ties theme week
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12:18 |
: didn’t I do family ties?
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12:20 |
: Yes, I did!
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12:20 |
: Wait, why did I do Julia Child describing a toad in the hole?
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12:21 |
: I’m supposed to do Cheers, aren’t I?
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12:21 |
: do you see Dozu
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12:21 |
: I don’t knwo what this is
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12:21 |
: Would you be willing to preview who is coming up in the ZiPS Time Warp Series? What criteria do you think through in determining who to research for those?
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12:21 |
: There’s no specific criteria. It’s just someone who I think is interesting and I try to move around teams and eras
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12:21 |
: Zips is low on Mazara,his statcast numbers look decent and The Bat X suggest a possible bigger year. With WS weaker schedule Det,KC,Pit a total of 28 times what % do you personally give him to break out?
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12:22 |
: I had Mazara on my breakout articles for like four years straight stubbornly.
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12:22 |
: So I’m out of the whole Mazara Breakout game.
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12:26 |
: Over/under 0.5 trades before opening day? And will Carson Fulmer for Dee Gordon be the trade?
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12:26 |
: ‘Over. I can see *a* trade.
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12:26 |
: Danny, sort of a good news/ bad news situation- I came in second in the demolition derby with your car this weekend!
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12:26 |
: I know that mom’s only leaving the house to walk over to my house and annoy the hell out of me
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12:26 |
: Lewis Brinson hit the 10 day DL. Its the only thing he can hit.
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12:26 |
: Ouch
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12:26 |
: Are you planning to buy the new PS or Xbox next year? or both?
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12:26 |
: Likely PS4
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12:27 |
: Sony seems to have, most generations, more games I want that don’t get to the PC
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12:27 |
: Because I will *always* get the PC version of something first.
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12:27 |
: And games I really like that come to console first, I will frequently still end up buying the PC version.
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12:28 |
: Like I have Grand Theft Auto V for PS3 *and* PC
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12:28 |
: And I got Trails of Cold Steel III for PS4 last fall and then the PC version when it came out in early 2020.
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12:29 |
: Will be the same for Trails of Cold Steel IV as I’ve already beaten the PS4 version. Which is in Japanese. Which I do not speak.
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12:29 |
: I’ll certainly get the PC port/translation when it comes out in ~6 months.
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12:30 |
: Favorite console RPG series of mine today, incidentally (the Trails series). I thought something at the end of Cold Steel III was sadder (personally) than a certain death in the middle of Final Fantasy VII
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12:30 |
: Dilly! Dilly ! Lets get started with the last non baseball chat….with ample food critique for flavoring.
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12:31 |
: Would you consider Carson Kelly a top-5 C in OBP leagues?
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12:31 |
: No. Kelly ought to be top-5 C *in OBP* or near there, but he’ll be too far down in other categories.
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12:31 |
: Unless you’re in a weird OBP ONLY league.
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12:32 |
: Does Vidal Brujan see any MLB action?
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12:32 |
: Doubt it
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12:32 |
: What team are you the most comfortable with for predicting an eventual W-L record (in terms of variance/certainty) with the shortened season? Which are you the least comfortable with? Why?
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12:32 |
: most comfortable: Dodgers. It’s a deep team.
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12:33 |
: Least comfortable: White Sox. So much variance there
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12:33 |
: While I enjoy AEW a lot, are you a little concerned that they’re not pushing young guys more? Seems the top faces (Cody, Young Bucks, Omega) get a lot of the titles/play and all the up and comers get pushed for a few weeks then ultimately fall short.
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12:33 |
: It’s a concern, but they’re still establishing their brand for now
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12:33 |
: How did you arrive at the assumption that an average of two players out of every 25 will test positive each month. My own thinking is the positive tests would be weighted toward the front and decline due to regular testing, peer effects, observing player time reallocation from those testing positive, etc.
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12:33 |
: Pulled out of my ass because we have no idea.
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12:33 |
: I used to put BBQ sauce on my tuna in college, I called it western style
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12:33 |
: Ugggh
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12:33 |
: I’m excited for baseball despite the current events. its okay to feel this way? When will MacKenzie Gore pitch in the majors?
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12:34 |
: It’s OK to feel however you feel!
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12:34 |
: I expect Gore’s appearances will be largely based onw hat the team is doing
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12:34 |
: Generally, is it easier to increase a hitter’s exit velocity or a pitcher’s fastball velo? Which orgs do which best in player development, to your knowledge?
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12:35 |
: I’m not sure I’m convinced enough on the last question, but exit velocity can be added with an approach change better than a pitcher velocity can be
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12:35 |
: Probably should have done a better job of obfuscating what that team is by spelling of favorite
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12:36 |
: With the signing of Puig, where does Swanson end up in the batting order for the Braves?
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12:37 |
: I personally expect he’ll be at the bottom of the order somewhere
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12:37 |
: I dont’ think they open the season with him 2nd
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12:37 |
: What are you hearing as far as Juan Soto is concerned, and what do the Nats do if he’s delayed a few weeks?
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12:38 |
: The rumors were that his arrival was imminent. I could have missed if there is something new though
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12:38 |
: This has probably been done somewhere, but how about a column on the best 60 game stretches since… divisional play maybe? to give us a little context for the numbers we’ll see this season
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12:38 |
: Doing a BA piece either for friday or early next week (depends how much progress I make finishing things up)
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12:38 |
: How accurate is ZiPS? I’m very weary of projection systems
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12:38 |
: That’s a pretty big question that you can’t get a simple one-line sentence for.
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12:38 |
: It’s like saying “how good is chemotherapy?”
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12:38 |
: Accuracy will always change depending on what group you’re talking about, what stat, what cutoff point.
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12:39 |
: The data is all out there for anyone to test. And when peopel can’t find data, I always provide if to for them
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12:39 |
: my al only auction draft didnt go as planned. My starting pitching is McCullers, Luzardo, McKay, Pearson, Gibson. Its a keeper league and i got good prices on Pearson and McKay but am i screwed for this yr or have hope? thoughts on this bunch?
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12:39 |
: This seems to be the Dice Roll Rotation
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12:39 |
: I assume Fangraphs will have an opening day spectacular chat?
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12:39 |
: I don’t think we’ve finalized anything yet — probably at next staff meeting — but I would expect *something* oepning day related
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12:39 |
2) What is your favorite Taco Bell menu item? |
12:40 |
: Gio to start
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12:40 |
: Sierra Mist
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12:40 |
: Is bacon chili really chili? Didn’t you say that only beef could be in chili?
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12:40 |
: I never envisioned bacon chili
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12:40 |
: I have to ponder
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12:40 |
: Washington football is simple. Should be Washington Sentinels, with Shane Falco at QB
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12:40 |
: Is chat volume up this week given the upcoming start of the season?
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12:41 |
: It IS up a bit
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12:41 |
: “Murder Hornets bid for Mets Franchise….:
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12:41 |
: Using either current MLB players or historical Orioles — your choice — what comps would ZIPS spit out for your cats?
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12:41 |
: lol, I don’t know how to answer this
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12:42 |
: I guess the two brother cats could be the Josephs
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12:42 |
: THe fat tux cat can be Boog Powell
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12:42 |
: Cassiopeia doesn’t remind me of any Oriole. Marge Schott?
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12:43 |
: Are DeGrom’s projections getting altered after the injury news?
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12:43 |
: I’m personally wait-and-see for the ZiPS sims. For depth charts, that’s a quesiton for Jason
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12:43 |
: Is your hatred of the Rockies just the prelude to the big twist where you realize your love for them in the romantic comedy that is your life?
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12:43 |
: They’d need a new GM of course
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12:43 |
: Family Ties – Tom Hanks drinking Vanilla extract to get the alcohol…
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12:43 |
: Did you see a guy trademarked 44 potential Washington team names? That’s the type of trolling I aspire to. Although he seems to be a good samaritan about it unfortunately
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12:44 |
: I was making a dumb joke about this
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12:44 |
It’s going to be awkward when the Redskins stay the Redskins because the team lost out on the trademark to Washington + every plural noun in the English language.
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12:44 |
: Look under your bed, Dan
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12:44 |
: Last I saw, the tux cat was under there and there’s no way he’s typing anything
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12:44 |
: None of the people in this chat have ever been in my kitchen
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12:45 |
: WHAT ABOUT YOU
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12:45 |
: Do you think these closed door baseball games would be more or less interesting to watch on TV if there was no piped in music or crowd noise?
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12:45 |
: Less. I like the surreal nature.
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12:45 |
: For the empty games, the Marlins should bring back the home run feature and just have it run NONSTOP
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12:45 |
: With creepy calliope music
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12:46 |
:
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12:46 |
: Tell me that this wouldn’t be good going for 3 hours with that thing creaking around slowly
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12:46 |
: U taking bauer or Morton in the 8th round? Roto 5v5
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12:46 |
: Mortis
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12:46 |
: Nomar Mazara breakout=carrot on a stick for Dan
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12:46 |
: oh yes, you’re right. it’s cheers week. my bad.
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12:48 |
: There, Cheers. I’m still unconvinced it’s not just one of you trying to sound like multiple people peer pressuring me to sing TV themes.
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12:48 |
: I have a plumber over and so my water is currently shut off. I need to use the bathroom. Chili was not a good breakfast choice today.
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12:49 |
: I had a plumber over last week to do some work in the kitchen, but luckily the kitchen-specific shutoff valves they put in a few years ago meant they didn’t have to shut off the whole house
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12:49 |
: Have you ever thought about how great life would be if you married into the YKK zipper fortune?
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12:50 |
: Do I *get* to have the fortune?
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12:50 |
: My grandparents were friends with people that were doorstop heirs.
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12:50 |
: Before I was born.
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12:50 |
: PS4 came out in like 2013. Get with it, Dan. Geez!
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12:50 |
: I mean PS5
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12:50 |
: If the 1988 Ford Tempo is a-rockin’, don’t come a-knockin’.
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12:51 |
: No such thing happened in my 1988 Ford Tempo. I have some self-respect
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12:51 |
: With 2 injury shortened and now a pandemic shortened season(s), will Votto still get serious HOF consideration with only eclipsing the 300 HR mark as a 1B?
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12:51 |
: Sadly I don’t think so
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12:51 |
: We’re getting better but not THAT much better.
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12:51 |
: Remember, just a few years ago, *nearly* three-quarters of Hall voters thought Jack Morris should be in the Hall.
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12:51 |
: When Jack Morris isn’t even as good a candidate, IMO, as Kevin Appier.
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12:52 |
1228 2/3 of a *6.23*
: Does 1228 2/3 innings of a 6.23 ERA enhance a player’s Hall case? Because that’s what Appier needed to match Morris’s IP and ERA+ |
12:53 |
: I’m not even convinced he’s the best Morris not in the Hall (19th century Ed)
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12:53 |
: I feel nauseous after the western style tuna comment. Is that ok?
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12:53 |
: There’s something that just seems alien about Aaron Judge, he looks like he could be an extra in a MiB movie
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12:53 |
: Awww bad words, Julio Rodriguez has a broken wrist
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12:53 |
: Dan, what is on your opening day menu?
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12:53 |
: I dunno!
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12:53 |
: We’ll see how many hours I’m chatting
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12:54 |
: Can teams with players who break their wrist add new minor league players to their taxi squad?
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12:54 |
: So long as they don’t expect the player back. Removing from the 60 man requires no more season
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12:54 |
: Anything fishy about the Braves, with their fully subsidized unnecessary new stadium, signing the colluded out starting FA bat for the second year in a row?
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12:54 |
: Owners aren’t great at keeping secrets, so I’d say no
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12:54 |
: AEW is dealing with the effects of a lot of their talent being stuck in other countries (UK, Japan), and several injuries to the upper level of an already thinned-by-corona womens division
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12:54 |
: Dan, I think I pissed of Jay the other day. Can you tell him I’m sorry? I’m sorry that he’s not more open-minded.
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12:54 |
: That’s not an apology!
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12:55 |
: I’m sorry that _____ [thing you do] _____
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12:55 |
: is not an apology
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12:55 |
: What did you do? Jay’s a good dude and you shouldn’t be a jerk to him.
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12:55 |
: I guess even if he were a bad dude. Why be a jerk?
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12:55 |
: How/does umpiring factor into projections? They stay regional right? Lot of young guns coming in this year but Joe West is still there
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12:55 |
: Not at all.
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12:55 |
: Orioles ride a surprise Cy young season from John Means, MVP caliber return from Chris Young, and a comeback year from Alex Cobb to win 1/3 of their games
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12:55 |
: Sounds weird
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12:55 |
: but then again
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12:55 |
: imagine in November
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12:56 |
: “Next year, the NL will adopt the designated hitter because of a global pandemic!”
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12:56 |
: Way weirder
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12:56 |
: Pick 1 for this year: Puk, Stripling, Hill, Eovaldi
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12:56 |
: Puk
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12:56 |
: How in the world are you going to project MiLB players for next year?
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12:56 |
: Erroneously
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12:56 |
: I think a lot about the artifacts we have from past civilizations- how they were just random things that *happened* to survive all those years and we have to extrapolate so much out of these tiny fragments that no one ever intended to be representative of anything. I like to think that somehow your tv themes will be that artifact that’s found in thousands of years or something.
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12:57 |
: I would hope our civilization would never end up being defined in history byt hte things I do
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12:57 |
: My dad was a plumber and one time he told a guy not to poop because my dad was working under the pipe that connected to the toilet so he’s working away and liquid starts dribbling onto his head and he touches it and it’s pee so he storms upstairs and yells at the guy (many swears) and the guy was like you told me not to poo
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12:57 |
: hahaha cheers was the best one so far
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12:57 |
: Which Marlins’ color scheme/uniform/logo set has been the best?
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12:59 |
: I acutalyl liked the black version with the teal the best.
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12:59 |
: Black I think works with Marlins unis because it balances ou tthe more tropical colors they use (the teal, the orange, etc)
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12:59 |
: Though I do like the modern blue with gray
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1:00 |
: and I hate the recent black alternate
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1:00 |
: that looks like an old alternate mets uiforms
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1:00 |
: I just got a PS4. It’s the newest system I’ve had since the 1990s. What should I play first?
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1:00 |
: MLB the Show!
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1:00 |
: These work conference calls just get in the way of participating in your chats Dan. I am sorry.
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1:00 |
: You had me in the first half, not gonna lie
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1:00 |
: Jay didn’t agree with my irrational assertion that my favourite team will outperform their projections
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1:00 |
: Don’t harass Jay! Save the crazy stuff for my chats.
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1:01 |
: you know how they say if you lock enough chimps in a room they’ll come up with shakespeare? How many cats would you have to lock in a room with a keyboard where they step on the right keys to select a winning roster for a fantasy team?
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1:01 |
: The Royals won a World Series.
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1:01 |
: Get mad at Cito all you want but Showalter is the one who didn’t use Britton
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1:01 |
: I was mad at that one too!
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1:02 | : |
1:02 |
: Who is your pick for the prospect most likely to make a large impact due to unforeseen injuries/illnesses who otherwise was not expected to see much big league action this year? Please say Tebow. Thanks.
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1:02 |
: Tebow. YOU TOLD ME TO
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1:02 |
: O/U Franchy home runs this season? Hoping for ~37.
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1:02 |
: slight under
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1:02 |
: Chili Time or Skyline
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1:03 |
: WTF is Chili Time?
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1:03 |
: If you were an MLBer what number would you wear?
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1:03 |
: 33
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1:03 |
: Wore that number as a kid and through as a teenager.
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1:03 |
: Just like the number because it can be 33, EE, WW, or MM depending on how you look at it!
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1:03 |
: 69 also
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1:04 |
: OH yeah, worst Marlins jersey is turn ahead the clock one
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1:04 |
: It had the GIANT MARLINS LOGO on the front
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1:04 |
: and dumb digital font number on the back
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1:04 |
: I hate these dumb digital font numbers.
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1:05 |
: Like why to do the Buccaneers use those? Is this mascot supposed to be “pirating” cheap digital sports watches?
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1:05 |
: The numbers should look like the font on a treasure map!
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1:06 |
: Thank god that one’s going away.
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1:06 |
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1:06 |
: A drafty apartment? A sweaterless friend? Step 9!
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1:06 |
: I would not ask to use someone’s cashmere sweater as I know I have a large head.
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1:06 |
: They could *barely* fit my head into a box on MLB Network yetserday!
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1:06 |
: I uh, asked Jay a question about something he had written that I disagreed with. And then asked a follow-up question because he didn’t really respond to what I was asking about. Wasn’t trying to piss him off, he seems like a nice dude. Was just really hoping he might consider an alternative point of view. He didn’t seem to be in the mood.
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1:07 |
: Jay’s a very nice dude! I don’t know what happened though.
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1:07 |
: Remember, chats are really for quick responses and it can be tonally awkward to go on a super serious tangent.
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1:07 |
: What will kill me first – COVId or bubonic plague!??!
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1:07 |
: Odds are still heart disease or cancer, but COVID more likely
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1:07 |
: What’s up with Kopech? That is the second pitcher I have already lost on my fantasy team. Our commissioner made us draft in March. SYNDGAAAARRRDDDDDDD
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1:08 |
: If a man with a briefcase came in and told you that he would give you billion dollars but it means that a man with an ax would show up at your job and chop off one of your coworkers fingers, would you do it? If you don’t work at an office then feel free to imagine a previous coworker situation.
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1:08 |
: Does it have to be a coworker? I’d sacrifice a finger for a billion dollars.
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1:09 |
: I can think of someone at Stebbins Anderson (RIP, 1869-2019) in Towson I would have had someone chop the finger off of!
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1:09 |
: I don’t work in an office now. I’m full-time for FanGraphs!
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1:09 |
: We don’t really even have an office.
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1:09 |
: Or, if we do, nobody’s gotten on me for never making an appearance.
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1:09 |
: a billion would buy you a bionic hand. Where is the axe?
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1:09 |
: I’d even sacrifice a hand! Sure, no more FPS games, but I can still play card games and RPGs.
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1:11 |
: I’d prefer to lose a finger because a pinky or something, I think I *could* still possibly play piano
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1:11 |
: But for a billion? take the hand
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1:12 |
: Paul Wittgenstein still found things he could play with one hand. Commissioned works, too, which I could do with a billion dollars.
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1:12 |
: Looks like you can’t actually add new prospects if your player breaks his wrist without exposing said prospect to waivers or adding said injured player to the 40 man
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1:12 |
: Oh,w as this the q?
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1:12 |
: Who is your pick to win it all this season?
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1:12 |
: Dodgers, but the overall probability.
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1:13 |
: Aesthetically what is your favourite pitch to watch? (12-6 Curve, fading circle changeup.. high 4 seamer)
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1:13 |
: I love me a good knuckle-curve
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1:14 |
: Plus you could by Michael Jackson’s old sparkly glove to put over the bionic hand
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1:14 |
: Captain Trips is way worse than COVID or Bubonic Plague
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1:14 |
: Have you come across any other CCG games that you enjoy along the lines of Hearthstone?
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1:14 |
: Not to the same degree.
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1:14 |
: What are the odds someone hits .400 this year? And how big of an asterisk are you putting next to it?
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1:14 |
: Upcoming article!
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1:14 |
: I’m just catching up on chat. If you had to recommend where to start with the Trails Series, where would you point me?
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1:14 |
: I’d start with Trails in the Sky. Though note that like the Suikoden games, they tend to be slow burners.
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1:15 |
: The first half of the first one is a little light in tone, but they quickly become grander and more complex after that.
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1:15 |
: By the time you finish Trails in the Sky second chapter, you’ll know if you like the series or not.
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1:16 |
: They all have that same pattern. Trails of Zero/Azure starts off slow in Zero. Trails of Cold Steel a little slow in teh first one for the first third of the game.
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1:16 |
: But they’re all in a shared world and as such, the history and the characters and political manueverings all tend to accumulate.
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1:17 |
: On that note, it’s time for me to head out. See you all Openign Day, I hoep!
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1:18 |
: Actually, one last edit for the last answer
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1:18 |
: You’ll probably know if you’re going to like the series depending on a cliffhanger at the very end of Trails in the Sky First Chapter; if you’re destined to like the series, you’ll want to immediately play the next one.
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1:18 |
: OK, now edit
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1:18 |
: err end
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
What was I missing with the finger question -how was that even a question? You could also just give the dude $100 mill or something.