Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/2/2020

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SORRY I’M LATE I WAS MAKING MITCH HANIGER JOKES ON TWITTER

12:02
Jon: I tried to make a model to project break outs and I had zero luck. Any suggestions for a beginner?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Project Arkanoid, it was a more successful Break Out!

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sorry.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It may be that you don’t have sufficient variables in your model to identify breakouts.

12:03
Chris: What do you make of manfreds comments about never intending to play more than 60 games? Seems like a dumb thing for a lawyer facing a grievance to say

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

Rob Manfred didn’t even say the quiet part loud.

Rob Manfred said the thing that you shouldn’t say quietly to yourself, at 2 AM, in the bathroom, in the dark, after you’re the only person left on the planet, ever, at all.

1 Jul 2020
12:04
Duchess: At this point is Judge basically just an average player, when figuring in risk?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not long-term!

12:04
Jon: Could be a coincidence, but I’ve seen Zips be more optimistic this year on quite a few players than other projections. Is there anything to that?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hard to say. I don’t run other projection systems, so can’t say precisely where they differ on certain guys

12:05
Nick: Long time listener, first time chatter. Is an arepa a sandwich?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So long as they’re no hinge

12:05
Dbo: Happy pre-fourth weekend everyone! What’s your favorite firework Dan? M-80?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: roman candles

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We used to have this lacrosse stick that was missing the top part with the net so it was just a hollow aluminum stick

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That way, you could put fireworks in the boomstick and aim them while holding them

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Amazingly, we never had an injury.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The BEST firework

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Was when we got this giant, $30 firework called invasion at normandy

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The thing lasted FOREVER and had little parachute men and everything

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We lit them off at the baseball field at riderwood elementary and had to take off because we attracted the cops attention

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My friend’s dad used to drive to NC with our orders and come back with his minivan packed to the brim with explosives.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I once almost hit some stoners with a roman candle so my friends called me The DEA for about a year

12:08
TomBruno23: Dan, does Chris Sabo have the least amount of PA/IP for an AS who played for the Cardinals? 14 PA for the great 1995 Cardinals.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was way down there but I don’t think he was the winner.

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Second to least PA

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the least PA was Doug DeCinces.

12:10
Jon: What happened to Lewis Brinson’s power last year?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He still hit power in the minors

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’ sjust in the majors, he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat

12:10
Adam: Which is more likely: one of last year’s last-place teams wins their division, or one of last year’s division champs finishes fifth?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: former

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can see miami, pittsburgh, or san diego winning their divisions as WAY more likely than any of the division winners being last

12:11
Adam Dawson: Evan White or Ryan Mountcastle? Do you think both play this year?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mountcastle. Who knows? But teams should be palying them.

12:12
Justin: A prospect like Nick Gonzales confuses me.  Clear reports of good bat speed along with low exit velocity.  What is the mechanism by which a high velocity bat would lead to low velocity hits?  Maybe the bat just isnt actually fast?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bad contact? Generally speaking, I don’t worry about descriptions too much until we have data

12:12
Justin: Am I wrong in thinking that a team like the Pirates should sell out for defense in this weird year?  Would I be right in thinking that a low scoring environment lends itself to higher variance seasons?  As in…  raise their probability of playoffs but also raise their probability of getting a top pick?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The problem is defense itself is kinda volatile.

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And there’s no real time to drastically change roster

12:13
Honus Wagner: Is it worth it to drop Austin Riley for Carter Kieboom now that Zimmerman has opted out?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It really depends on team needs. DH helps Riley’s PT

12:13
Adam: How many home runs leads the majors this year?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 20?

12:13
BeefLoaf108: In the short 60 games MLB season (should it fully occur), what outstanding occurrence would you like to see achieved and by who? (could be individual player or team)

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cy Young winner with no wins!

12:14
A Tribe Called Kipnis: If teams play 60 games (and assume injuries and positive tests are distributed equally), which team uses the most players and how many?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mariners because Trader Jerry will make 47 trades in 66 days.

12:14
Dbo: Is a jibarito a sandwich? Using plantains instead of bread bothers me

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: sandwich

12:14
Billy Beane: Hey, Dan.

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: yo

12:14
Dbo: What’s your ideal meal on the 4th of July? Do you eat hot dogs?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like ribs

12:14
A Tribe Called Kipnis: Will there be more openers this year?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so. I suspect tandem type games the biggest jump

12:15
Derek: What weird thing do you most want to see happen this season?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We get through a season and nobody in a front office/coaching staff dies!

12:15
Adam: Do the Dodgers get next in line for hosting the All Star Game?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect they do. Not sure how many years ahead htey have planned

12:16
Jimminy: Can somebody at FG write an article to reflect the owner’s perspective? I don’t think it is as simple as “billionaires don’t want baseball because of pure greed.”

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s probably not simple, but it’s the side that outright lies about things, so it’s hard to see things from their perspective.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You don’t see players making up numbers and telling them to Bob

12:16
Ben: Szymbobski’s in da house!

12:17
Stevil: How can MLB actually keep the names of players who test positive for the virus confidential (without their consent) if they have to be placed on the Covid-19 IL? If they’re not on the active roster and not on the regular IL…

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Realistically, they have to *officially* not talk about it, but everyone will know.

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Clayton Kershaw suddenly disappears and there’s no talk about his arm, people are going to know he got COVID, not that he decided to become a monk in tibet

12:17
TomBruno23: I exercise, but also consume 90% of my calories in the form of alcohol, tortilla chips and salsa. Will I be ok?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: See how long I survive

12:17
Adam: Who would be the most satisfying out-of-nowhere SSS-induced “fluke” MVP/Cy Young winners this year?  Rooting for Rich Hill, personally.

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Trevor Bauer Cy Young

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have to admit, I love how he drives writers nuts without really saying anything all that awful

12:19
Toby: Where does Puig end up?  Why hasn’t it happened yet? Is he waiting out to see if more players opt-out of the season?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. It should have

12:19
Mitch Haniberg: Every time I hit the showers, I assume there’s someone else on the planet showering. So I say, ‘I’m gonna go shower, too.’

12:19
Jimminy: I think the general perspective I’ve seen from a lot of authors here can be a bit disingenuous and narrow sighted. (big fan, I don’t want to sound too harsh)

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Everybody has their blind spots, including us (and including you!)

12:20
TomBruno23: Hahaha oh yeah Doug DeCinces and his 4 days as a Cardinal at the end of 1987. Kicking myself on that one. But, I am blessed enough to say I saw DeCinces and Sabo as Cardinals and Piazza as a Marlin all at the old Busch. Memories.

12:20
Cakes&Kakes: I had a dream that both you and Brandon Fahey were at my birthday party. That’s it. I don’t remember any other context, but I just wanted you to know Dan.

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Brandon Fahey is a deep dive!

12:20
Mitch Haniberg: I had a stick of Carefree gum, but it didn’t work. As soon as the gum lost its flavor, I was back to pondering my myriad injuries.

12:20
Rich: Hi Dan.  Fantasy closer question.  Hector Neris just went on the IL for undisclosed reasons.  (Get well soon, Hector!)  Available options include Tony Watson, Mychal Givens, and Wade Davis.  Which would you choose, and why?  Thanks!

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Watson

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s just the guy I think is likely the best

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: O’s are awful and Davis is scary

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I’d be tempted to take Davis if I need a moon shot

12:21
LFC MIKE: Check Lewis Brinson’s splits in the minors. Colorado Springs says it all. Home/Away was terrible. Rockies somehow did something smart for their franchise for a change at the Marlins expense.

12:21
Captain Moonlight: is Zips operational for current KBO? If yes, how is it liking what Koo Chang-Mo and Kang Baek-ho are doing? They’re so young and crushing it!

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It is, but I don’t have a daily model running!

12:22
TomBruno23: Thursday Trivia: Since 1980, who are the only three athletes to play for the St. Louis Cardinals and in the NFL?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well Chad Hutchinson is the easy one

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh Brian Jordan

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: not sure who number three is

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: crap, didn’t they have a pitcher who was a strike breaker?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t remember the name

12:24
Member of So-ciety: Theo Epstein made a comment last year that there’s more player development being done at the ML level than ever before, This reminds me of the NFL model of player manangement and strikes me as another salary supressant. Madness?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Remains to be seen if it’s baseball smart. Teams do like having as much control over their players as possible.

12:24
Not bitter: Dan, there was a butt-ton of Bobby Bonilla Day coverage yesterday, but we hardly ever hear about Bruce Sutter Day or others. Math-wise, was the Bonilla deferred payment deal exponentially worse than most others, just a little bit worse than most others, or pretty similar to most others? I trust you because I know you’re impartial.

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I talk about the Sutter one a lot too!

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say which one is worse.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sutter’s interest rate floor was ridiculously high, but it was also at a time that interest rates were high

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the Mets were paying fora  guy that generally played well for them

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t believe Sutter is in the hall

12:26
Judge: Even banged up Judge seems to crank far better than 2-WAR (ie avg) seasons though

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I think he’s including the injury risk

12:27
hscer: We already had a Cy Young winner with only 2 wins and DON’T GIVE ME YOUR RELIEVER ASTERISK THAT’S THE IDEA

12:28
Adam Dawson: Do you see Trevor May getting the majority of holds for the Twins this year?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’d be the favorite. Also most chicken dinners

12:28
TomBruno23: Mazel Tov to Bill DeWitt, Jr. for saving 1.3M when Mike Leake opted out. Every penny counts during These Troubled Times.

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ian Desmond!

12:28
Dbo: What are the odds that the season gets cancelled?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think i-in-5

12:29
hscer: why did Stone beat Norris?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Whatcha talking about? Joe Piscopo LOST?

12:29
Hot Dog Neophyte: Hi Dan. If serving chili dogs for July4th, I assume: No beans and No Skyline Chili for the hot dogs? Gotta get this right.

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:29
Guest: What one part of game will give teams biggest advantage? Is it in game performance,  roster make up,scheduling, overall plan to deal with situations?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: roster

12:29
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What walkoff home plate celebrations are allowed under the current rules?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A respectful tip o’ the cap from a distance

12:29
Jimminy: I completely agree to having a blind spot too. It’s just tough to see such a one-sided argument made on here while plenty of other sites are showing both perspectives.

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Then make a better argument! Nobody censors the comment threads except people being douchenozzles to others (or spamming)

12:31
A Tribe Called Kipnis: Which broadcaster has the worst gimmick?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Harold Reynolds not knowing how baseball works is my least favorite gimmick

12:31
Duck: Do you have thoughts on pretzel salads? I just learned what this is

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wawit what?

12:31
TomBruno23: Yes on Hutchinson, there is another easy one. The third is a deep cut only the biggest of BFIBs would know from the late 80s.

12:31
TomBruno23: yes on BJ

12:31
TomBruno23: Matt Kinzer, reliever for Cardinals and Tigers. Punted as a replacement Detroit Lion one game in 1987. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Kinzer

12:31
LFC MIKE: I meant Brewers..duh on Brinson

12:31
TomBruno23: Ted Turner gave Al Hrabosky an amazing deal as well, “It has been estimated those payments will total $5.9 million over 35 years.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1979/11/21/hrabosky-set-…

12:31
Dbo: Best baseball video game ever? Ken Griffey baseball? Mike Piazza baseball?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Baseball Stars

12:32
Ian: Does Desmond become an FA after this year?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s signed for $8 million in 2021

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the Rockies will hilariously think they’ve got an amazing bargain for 2021

12:33
Adam Dawson: Thoughts on Reynaldo Lopez? Think he might breakout?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Meh

12:33
A Braves Fan: Given the shorter season, should we expect a higher win percentage needed to win divisions that normal since there will be higher variability overall in records? For example the braves and nationals are expected to tie at the top of the NL East with 33 wins, but should we expect the actual winner to have 36+ wins?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though interestingly, Tango didn’t find that for initial 60 game chunks.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So who knows

12:33
TomBruno23: Baseball Stars is correct, although Baseball Simulator 1.000 was a lot of fun as well.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, BS1000 was a lot of fun. But this is Baseball Stars!

12:33
LFC MIKE: For prospects who were likely to get the call this year, do MLB teams, not the playoff contenders, throw them into a 60 game season and look to have them ready to go next year? A full calendar year with no competitive baseball for these youngsters is terrible for them…and us as well.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would. A year without baseball for those guys is bad.

12:33
LFC MIKE: So Mookie Betts is a 60 game rental?

12:34
Jimminy: “It’s the side that outright lies about things”. Again, I think that is oversimplified as well. There could be “owners” as individuals that have lied just like there are many individual “players” that have lied. It also seems like the numbers are very foggy still and not clear whether they are misleading or misinterpreted.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which players have outright lied about revenues?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which players have paid damages for collusion?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When did Tony Clark that they didn’t argue in good faith during the negotiations?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which players lied about the finances of their team to extort a half billion from a municipality?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The crap in the Smiley prospectus is standard operating practice.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Huizenga tells media the team lost $34 million. Zimbalist conservatively estimates it was a $10 million profit.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But Huizenga liked sending Marlins revenues to Dolphins while having Marlins shoulder *all* the stadium debt.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which players lied to Congress about the league finances?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We *know* Selig lied to Congress. The figures given for the Cleveland Indians in the Blue Ribbon panel were significantly worse than the ones Cleveland publicly filed while they were a traded company.

12:37
Jimminy: Players haven’t discussed revenue since they’re not in a position to do so.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s a rather specious argument.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Of course they’re in a position to lie. If you have a mic, you can lie.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They didn’t make up a figure and say “MLB teams make $200,000 in profit every game!”

12:38
Walt: I’m curious how ZIPS is going to project minor leaguers next year. Will it basically just be their 2021 projection from pre-2020 (assuming they don’t play in the majors) since you won’t have any additional information?

12:38
Jimminy: Also, why did everything about the negotiations get published? It seems that if they came to the same conclusion by doing everything in discretion and not trashing the other sides we could be coming into the season with much more appreciation.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because owners talk to Bob

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Walt, the weighting will be considering less for most recent season

12:39
Guest: Dan what happens when a month from now 20% of players test positive for Covid-19 and they cancel the season, do they still get a year of service time?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:39
Jimminy: They do lie, but not regarding team finances.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOu wanted me to take the owners side in a *debate over finances*

12:39
Jimminy: They also trashed the owners for some necessary and some unnecessary reasons.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a difference between lying and being mean.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jimminy is a big poopyhead = mean

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m going to tell a reporter that Jimminy stole my wallet = lie

12:40
A Tribe Called Kipnis: If safe to proceed, how would the Arizona Fall League work this year?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: god only knows

12:40
Tony: How long do you think in season we will see pitchers go 6-7 innings?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not very. I think even top pitchers get a lot of 5 inning specials

12:41
Bigfoot Erotica: With so many guys getting the virus just staying home, theoretically living their normal lives, does it seem like playing pro sports would be any *more* risky right now? I realize traveling a lot adds a wrinkle, but you also have access to testing and monitoring everyday that you wouldn’t have at home. It seems like the risk is high doing about anything, so why not get paid.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As I said, I think the people who think that baseball having COVID positives represents a failure in itself is missing hte point a bit

12:41
Jimminy: Woahhh, Dan. I’m a big fan and I will return your wallet.

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MY SUBMARINE HOUSE LOYALTY CARD BETTER STILL BE IN THERE

12:42
Jimminy: I’ll read up a bit more and do a better job articulating the positives and negatives of both sides.

12:42
A Tribe Called Kipnis: How much of this is Rob Manfred being over his head and how much is Tony Clark hiring Don Fehr-protege Bruce Meyer to take over as lead negotiator for the MLBPA?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hard to say. I talk to people on both sides about things, but I’m not there day to day

12:42
Pizzalonso: If baseball expands to 32 teams, where would you like to see those two teams located and how would you re-align leagues and/or divisions?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gross

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No realign league or divisions

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I’m the dictator, I’d put a team in NY, a team in NC, and stick them both in the east divisions

12:43
Tony: Do think some teams might go with a 4 man rotation later in the season when push for playoffs come

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not unless innings are lower

12:43
Guest: Can you explain to me why the MLBPA would’ve accepted any deal from the owners? Whatever maximum games the owners offered (here 60), if the players didn’t accept, how would the owners have been able to back down from that number without opening themselves up to a grievance ?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, for one, their representative not announcing to the press that they were never actually willing to negotiate the number

12:44
Acub: Hey Dan,
from your point of view, which language would the best one to code a projection system like ZiPS? Talked today to a Data Analyst at my company, and he surprised me a lot by suggesting SQL.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Python

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’m not a coder

12:44
Guest: Maybe this explains that strange meeting between Clark & Manfred. (btw not condemning the MLBPA it was a good tactic)

12:44
A Tribe Called Kipnis: If you got one of those crowd cardboard cutouts, would you use your spilled french fry photo?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For reference.

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That was my favorite shirt at the time. It was also the shirt I wore for a culinary triumph!

12:46
A Tribe Called Kipnis: Thank you.  You have answered all of my baseball and baseball-related questions.

12:46
J.D. Martin: Least favorite video game that you spent the most time playing?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Final Fantasy VIII

12:47
LFC MIKE: Poopyhead Head?  Language Dan… please..or we will tell your Mom you said a bad word….and did you ever have your mouth washed out with soap?  I preferred Lifebuoy

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I try not let off any f bombs!

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t actually finish an answer above! doh

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As I said, I think the people who think that baseball having COVID positives represents a failure in itself is missing hte point a bit. I think the goal isn’t to be perfect, but for fewer players to get COVID than *would have otherwise*

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We don’t test drugs against perfection, we test drugs against the typical treatment.

12:48
Minnesota Triplet: Maybe I’m just being a pessimist, but as determined as these leagues are I just can’t see any sort of sports happening in the US this year. What are the chances I’m right? (For the record, I’d love to be wrong)

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think 1-in-4!

12:48
brad: if a player opts out, do they get more or less salary vs if they played the 60 game season?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If they have a high-risk reason, they get the same

12:49
Cakes&Kakes: Is the fry picture from the Maryland House in Aberdeen? because it sure looks like it

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s from the food court at Towson Town Center

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: in summer of 1996

12:49
LFC MIKE: Somehow I think a reality show starring you and your group of friends in your early 20’s would have been very watchable.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nah, it would’ve had too much smoking weed and gambling in goldeneye and monopoly

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not pictured: lots of beer (none of us were 21 at this point)

12:52
SomeGuy: Any sense on what level of COVID infection rates will cause the league to call it a season?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think 10-15%

12:52
JJ: So the Betts trade is basically a normal deadline trade now.  How would that be viewed as a normal late July trade?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The thing is, it’s only a deadline trade in calendar terms

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: they still have him for 100% of the season

12:52
Guest: FAMILY TIES THEME PLEASE

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I thought you guys woudl forget these

12:56
Dan: 10-15% of the 25 man or 60 man?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 60

12:56
JJ: my point was they get him for 2 months, how would the trade be viewed from the view of LAD giving away what they did for 2 + months of Betts, if it were completed on July 23rd of a regular season where they were tied for first at the time.

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But they’re getting 100% of a season of Betts, not 33% of a season]

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The number of games doesn’t actually matter

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If MLB only played one game a year, that one game woulld have WAY WAY higher leverage to final results than 1/162

12:57
Derek: Trading one of the top 5 (at worst) players in franchise history without even trying to negotiate a contract with him should not be considered “normal” under any circumstances!

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, itis

12:57
Adam: Will the guys at the top of the FA market i.e. Betts see a significant decrease in their offers due to the revenue shortfalls?  If so, do you think they’re more likely to take a short contract in hopes that revenues will bounce back post-COVID?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do expect the contracts to be very disappointing from the player perspective this winter

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And there will be players I think who would do better with one year deals

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Mookie can get 1/40 from the Dodgers for 2021, I think he ought to take that

12:58
Tony: With expanded rosters and new pitcher rules do you see managers being more aggressive and changing pitchers more at the start of an inning?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not following

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If anything, I’d expect them to be less aggressive

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: since the batter count doesn’t matter for a changed inning

12:59
A cat: There is a great opportunity for trolling opposing teams with cutouts. Stands full of Pete Rose cutouts when CIN is visiting, or all the James Bond actors in tuxes with trash can banging or buzzers going off when the Astros are in town. Or empty seats when the Rays or Marlins play on the road.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My idea is for the marlins to put cardboard cutouts of empty seats in the empty seats

12:59
Erik: will jose quintana buy a dishwasher for 2021?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, this one’s over my head

12:59
Adam: New revenue idea: teams auction off ONE ticket per game, conditional on a negative COVID test.  You can sit wherever you want.  You know Marlins Guy would shell out a pretty penny to be the only fan in as many stadiums as possible.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He already does that 81 times a year

1:00
SomeGuy: Wouldn’t calling someone a poopyhead also be a lie if said person is not a poopyhead?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For the purpose of the example, I’d call it a poopyhead

1:00
Who’s Fabio?: Dan, I have to explain to a visitor from another planet the logic and reasoning behind banning Pete Rose for gambling but allowing Alex Rodriguez, admitted cheater and steroid user, to potentially own an MLB team.  Can you help me out?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gambling is a conflict of interest thing. Steroid users still have the same interests in performing well.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Injecting heroin into your eyeballs is way more illegal than doing things based on a tip from a friend.

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The SEC cares about the latter.

1:01
Erik: Quintana: Cubs left-hander Jose Quintana underwent surgery on his left thumb, the team announced today. According to the team’s press release, Quintana suffered a laceration on his left thumb last week while washing dishes at home. The cut required five stitches, and Quintana ultimately required microscopic surgery to “further determine the extent of his injury.”

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I totally missed that!

1:01
Jimmy: WON’T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE OWNERS

1:02
LFC MIKE: Semi-Non Baseball related..Congrats to FSG for ending a 30 year drought for my soccer team. They have a gift for ending championship droughts, right Red Sox fans?…and a tip of the cap to LeBron James. His initial $6.5 million investment in that club from 2011 is now worth almost $44 million. That’s just 2% ownership.  Happy 4th Dan and everyone here..be safe and considerate to all.

1:02
Yandy Diaz: Very unrelated, favorite dead ball era player?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Phenomenal Smith

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was such a dick that his teammates once committed like a dozen errors in a game just to show him up

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I also WISH I knew more about the man, the legend: Silver King

1:04
Adam: Will you still answer “April” in chats even though the season starts in late July?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Of course

1:04
BK: Not sure if this has been posted yet, but man I would’ve loved to have seen these games https://theathletic.com/1905651/2020/07/02/prohibition-baseball-inside…

1:04
Don: You think 200 or so players would have to get sick before they’d cancel the season?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so, though it depends on who they are

1:05
Stevil: Seattle was projected to have the second worst record in baseball and that was before Mitch Haniger had surgery and hit the IL. Should they be the favorites to bottom out now, or is Baltimore still clearly in the driver’s seat?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Baltimore

1:05
J: Trevor Hoffman was once runner-up for CY with no wins

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean a STARTER Cy with no wins

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: LIke deGrom goes 0-6, 1.60 or something.

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, we are past our prearranged farewell date.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Have a great fourth and don’t do anything I’d do!

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/2/2020 by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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pepper69fun
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pepper69fun

Mitch Haniger jokes are nut funny.