Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/21/22

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon!

Dk: Who is your favorite to get Soto? When is he more likely to be traded? August or November?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s more likely to be traded in the offseason

Dan Szymborski: I think the Padres might make a push

Dan Szymborski: Though I think where he ends up depending on how insistent they are in “bundling” Patrick Corbin in

Vic: On MLB draft night, so many Top 15 picks are spoke of in glowing terms. It’s inferred that many of them are likely a 50/50 prop to have a Francisco Lindor type career. How many of this year’s Top 15 even have a 20% chance of a Lindor type career?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t have the numbers in front of me! One thing you have to remember about Draft Day is that it by its nature optimistic. They’re guessing what players *can* do not necessarily what they will.

Dan Szymborski: But it’s fairly low % obviously

Troy: Have we ever seen a comp to including a guy like Corbin in a big trade? The Adrian Gonzalez trade comes to mind, but crawford and beckett were useful players, albeit overpaid. The 35 mil owed to Corbin in 2024 is…mucho

Dan Szymborski: To *this* extreme? I haven’t

Dan Szymborski: Though I sometimes joke that the Tigers were trading cash to the Rangers but the condition was that you also had to take Prince Fielder

Dan Szymborski: (Which was excessively mean since he was declining rapidly, but still useful at that point)

bron cena: where on the roster does zips say CHW needs to improve? and what dudes could they go for to do that?

Dan Szymborski: Could use another outfielder and a 2B. The former will be easier to find

Guest: Pablo Lopez for Santander, Mayo, Stowers, and Rom?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard worse, but I still think the O’s are a year or so away from short-termish trades like that

Matt: When you go to a baseball game, what is your favorite thing to see/do at the park?

Dan Szymborski: beer! lol

Dan Szymborski: Also find whatever interesting new hard alcohol concoction is available

tz: Is there a Black Friday for Deadlinemas?

Dan Szymborski: Not anymore!

barney gumble: hey Dan. Juan Soto is having, by his standards, a relatively pedestrian season. say the Nationals don’t move him at the deadline and he has a second half Bonds-type explosion. is it possible that they’d get more during the offseason in that case than they would now?

Dan Szymborski: I think it is

Dan Szymborski: While they’re exploring trades for him, there’s no reason it HAS TO be right now

Bing Bong: Does a strong Montas showing today catapult his trade value back up to that of Luis Castillo?

Dan Szymborski: Not to Castillo, no

Dan Szymborski: I think all else being equal, Castillo would still be slightly more valuable

git pull hitter: Is Torkelson bad or fixable? Seems like he’s got a good approach, just missing the ball. Maybe he needs glasses?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s fixable

Al Avila: So when do I get fired?

Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised you haven’t been

sadtrombone: Joe Musgrove grades out as a guy who will be better, longer in FA because of his age. In the following offseason, Julio Urias will be 28.2 years old, Flaherty will be 29.1, Tyler Mahle will be 30.1, Ohtani will be 30.3, and Giolito will be 30.3. Which of these guys looks like the guy who has the best chance to hold value for the long-haul? (as a pitcher, have to specify that because of Ohtani). A team that isn’t quite ready now, but should be ready in a year or two–who should they go after?

Dan Szymborski: As a pitcher, I think Giolito’s probably the *safest* though obviously I love Ohtani

Jake: Everyone is talking about a potential Soto deal, but are there any sneaky under-the-radar additions the Mariners could make at the deadline at a much cheaper price?

Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly talk to the Cubs about Chris Martin

Marshall: It would be cool to see an article on the ZiPS all-stars (the best players based on current projections) and comparing those to the actual all-star selections.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe, but it’s so easy to just find the best current projections!

Adam: Do you like your favorite food more than you dislike your least favorite?  If given a choice, would you eat the best version of your favorite but also have to eat the same portion size of your least favorite, or would you go with the same amount of something perfectly average instead?

Dan Szymborski: I dislike my least favorite food — the broccoli/cauliflower family — far more than I enjoy anything in life

Guest: Just come out and say it: who wins the Juan Soto sweepstakes?

Dan Szymborski: Soto’s financial advisor

Petish: Petition to remove the word “heater” from all Fangraphs vocab?

Dan Szymborski: I would intentionally replace it with something even more annoying

Cakes&Kakes: Who is your favorite baseball player you’ve watched in your lifetime and why is it Brandon Fahey?

Dan Szymborski: Bonds, though Soto’s getting up there

Guest: I can’t believe the Nats made Juan Soto ride in first class with the peasants :O

John: Hi, Dan! Thanks for doing the chats. Want to alert you to something funky with the wild card page of the playoff odds: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc

Dan Szymborski: Wait, WTF Is going on!

Dan Szymborski: Though you can get the real numbers if you go back into division view

John: Sometimes there are only 11 teams shown in the wild card race for each league, and right now there are no teams shown, plus the game back is a bit odd.

Guest: What is the point of including Corbin in the trade? They’re under tax and it’s not like they’re going to spend his salary for other players to contend, right?

Dan Szymborski: I guess to not have to pay Patrick Corbin, which is admittedly something most would want to avoid!

Anon21: Has ZiPS’ opinion on Dansby Swanson changed significantly this year? Where does he end up next season?

Dan Szymborski: Significantly. While ZiPS has always been generally positive about him, he’s having a really awesome season

Dan Szymborski: I wrote about him and ZIPS a few weeks ago

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/if-2022-is-dansbys-swansong-in-atlanta-its…

More Like Joey Fallow: Realistic possible suitors for Gallo? Seems like this is another one of those trades where everyone knows he’s not this guy in NY, but NY can’t afford to wait around anymore for him to get better. The Yankees are willing to get a little hosed to get rid of him, like with Sonny Gray.

Dan Szymborski: If the Padres don’t make a huge splash, I can see them taking a chance on Gallo

Saw Astrodome Yesterday: Here in Houston, Astros eliminated walk-up box office purchase of tickets. You could buy tickets at box office for no fee. Now internet only, where two tickets have $15 in internet fees. Is this universal trend? It stops us from going because just such rip off.

Dan Szymborski: Remember, the primary reason that a professional sport exists is to transfer things from your pocket to somebody else’s! So there will always be new schemes to take your money, unfortunately

Phil: Do you always drink at the ballpark or do you make a distinction between when you are there “at work” or “as a fan”? Or, since your work is mostly computery stuff, does it just not matter at all?

Dan Szymborski: I always drink at the ballpark. I’m not flying a plane! Though I drink outside the press box, obviously

Dan Szymborski: Sometime someone or a group sees the badge around my neck and then I hang out with them and drink for an inning or two

Dan Szymborski: But when I’m *in* the press box, I’m all business

Dan Szymborski: Unless I haven’t had a haircut in a while and I’m getting mullety, in which case there’s a party in the back

Judge: Let’s say Judge finishes around 7.5 WAR (which would be about 34 for career). Would you put him in if he got 25 more? It’s clearly going to be a peak rather than compiler case.

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it’s hard to say until I know exactly what happens

Dan Szymborski: But he’s certainly be discussed then

Romorr: I know fans don’t want Mancini trade, and his value isn’t that high, with that said, if someone offers an arm Elias likes, foolish not take? Orioles should also trade from their BP depth as well, right?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Yes.

Seamus: If you were the Red Sox, who would you target for help at 1B?

Dan Szymborski: Hosmer, but I’m an O’s fan so I’d be an undercover chaos agent

Dan Szymborski: Would certainly talk about Bell

Dan Szymborski: or Walker

Dan Szymborski: And really, are the Royals *that* wedded to Pasquantino?

Dan Szymborski: Cron would be fun, but the Rockies aren’t in reality, so probably no chance of landing him

Adam: Who would you guess is faster right now, Yadier Molina or 63-year-old Rickey Henderson?

Dan Szymborski: JESUS, he’s already 63? This is why I drink when doing baseball things!

Dan Szymborski: I would be Rickey, but I don’t know what physical shape he’s in recently

Johnny Slick: petition to replace “heater” with “oppo taco”

Dan Szymborski: I smell a neural network thing!

Dan Szymborski: Some New Dumb Synonyms for Fastball

1. Flameball
2. Hotpitch
3. Gritball
4. Hot Block
5. Burning Ball
6. Hot Rolling Block
7. Roaring Rooster
8. Boomhanger
9. Stabber
10. Slingshot
11. Warped Pipe
12. Wobbling Wobblebug
13. Battered Bulldozer
14. Geyser
15. Brickslayer
16. Peg Leg
17. Lathe
18. Forward Lunge
19. Spearburst
20. Breech

Dan Szymborski: So, Petish, you are now LEGALLY required to use one of these.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll let you choose!

Bubba: Whose playoff odds increase the most by getting Soto?  WS odds?

Dan Szymborski: While I can’t run a simulation in my head, I would *guess* the Blue Jays

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Cardinals or Giants too?

Harmon Ripkowski: Hi. Why do wpa, rew, and bs not go back further on your site when it does on other sites?

Dan Szymborski: We don’t have an extensive play by play going back as far as some

Dan Szymborski: Which is why you don’t see splits far back historically

Duchess: Spencer Strider has been great but correct to assume he will be more or less shut down in the second half to manage workload?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be at least singificantly limited

Adam: As a fan, would you trade the last five + next five years of the Nationals for that of the Cardinals?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Wait, Am I trading AWAY the Nats/

Dan Szymborski: then yes

The Great Giambino: What does a realistic package from the Guardians for Sean Murphy look like?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they actually do that

Dan Szymborski: but

Dan Szymborski: They’d certainly want 2-3 guys (not including Rocchio, Valera, Espino)

Dan Szymborski: The A’s aren’t usually against taking a whole bunch of lesser but fascinating prospects and see who works out

Doug: I feel like Ricky would still be a 0.1 WAR player at 63

Dan Szymborski: He’d probably hit like 150/350/150

Oddball Herrera: Wobbling Wobblebug sounds more like a Jimmy Garoppolo attempt to go deep

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: So…Haseley has a 103MPH Roaring Rooster? I’ll take “Things That Sound Dirty, But Aren’t” for $800

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: I recently discovered Flamin Hot Cheetos boxed mac ‘n cheese.  If you like your chili over pasta (because, really, without beans it’s just a variation on pasta sauce) this is a good way to go.

Guest: Can ZIPS estimate how an ace-level starter would fare in a full season as a closer? Like would Gerrit Cole be a 5 WAR closer pitching 90-110 innings?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, ZiPS can do that

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has his ERA in the low twos as a reliever

Dan Szymborski: but that’s not pushing five WAR. That’s REALLY hard to do for any reliever

Dan Szymborski: We only have one five WAR reliever season in the FG database (Sutter 1977)

Devin: I’m trying to find xwOBA, and for some reason the fangraphs columns are empty! I know baseball savant has it, but I’m looking for team 30 day xwOBA (they only have yearly). Any thoughts on how to find this? Thank you, love your work!

Dan Szymborski: I’m honestly not sure why it’s not filled in

Julio vs. Witt: Who are you picking for AL ROY this year, Julio or Witt?  Who would you rather have on your team for the next 6 years?

Dan Szymborski: Julio. Juilo

Dan Szymborski: Julio

cm: Should the Orioles try to trade for Luis Castillo?  If so, what would be fair?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think the window is *too* short for the O’s to do that

Adam: Dan, what is the most likely explanation for Matt Carpenter?

Dan Szymborski:

Zac: What does zips think of Torkleson’s early struggles?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is admittedly concerned

Dan Szymborski: Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF  + DR WAR   2023 .232 .321 .412 136 469 61 109 25 1 19 61 57 122 8 3 2 8 8 105 4 1.9   2024 .233 .324 .426 133 455 61 106 26 1 20 62 58 122 7 3 2 8 8 109 5 2.2   2025 .235 .329 .434 134 456 62 107 26 1 21 63 61 125 7 3 2 8 8 113 5 2.4   2026 .231 .330 .431 134 455 63 105 26 1 21 63 63 128 8 3 2 8 8 112 4 2.3   2027 .232 .333 .433 133 448 63 104 25 1 21 63 65 128 7 3 2 8 8 114 4 2.4   2028 .230 .335 .435 130 439 62 101 25 1 21 61 66 127 7 3 2 8 8 115 4 2.4

Dan Szymborski: wow

Dan Szymborski: that looks bad

Dan Szymborski:

Dansby SwanSong: There has been little to no improvement in the league quad slash .242/.312/.395/.707 despite the warmer weather.  We have a scoring problem.  What should be done about it?

Dan Szymborski: Dr. Wills’ theory from testing found odd results when you take a ball out of a humidor and put it back in

Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly only take them out of humidor one time and keep them out

Yankees: I think we will see the Yankees bring back Robertson and add on Happ and see how that shakes out.

Dan Szymborski: If they wanted Happ, they already could have!

Adam: If you’re the Dodgers, who are you most worried about in the 2nd half/postseason: Bellinger, Muncy, or JT?

Dan Szymborski: Bellinger

Dan Szymborski: He’s the most distressing because before all this, he’d be the one of the trio you wouldn’t normally expect to see a decline from

Zach: The Dodgers have to be absolutely thrilled with how Gavin Lux’s season is going. Do you believe he can sustain this level of production going forward? He’s been unreal since early June.

Dan Szymborski: I certainly hope so! He was on my breakouts list which isn’t going as gangbusters as last year

Romorr: With the Orioles improving, but not there yet, what does FA look like for 2023? What moves would you like to see, if say, we finish 79-83.

Dan Szymborski: If he’s not re-signed, I’d be highly interesting Joe Musgrove

Dan Szymborski: the O’s are at the point where adding another inning-eater would be useful too

kcc26: who do you think is the biggest reliever name moved?

Dan Szymborski: According to zips, the biggest reliever names who could plausibly be moved

Dan Szymborski: are quintin torres-costa, bryan montes de oca, Julian Merryweather

Dan Szymborski: the smallest name is Ty Tice, who is better than his minor league ERA!

Jordan: is it likely the Rangers trade Martin Perez before deadline and if so what type of prospect/package would they get back for him?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll get an interesting prospect or two, but nothing in the top 100

Mirror Mirror, On the Wall: Who is the bigguest bust of all? Kelenic, Adell, Marsh.

Dan Szymborski: So far, Kelenic

Dan Szymborski: His fate isn’t sealed, but ouch

Dan Szymborski: I was never in on Marsh really

Beer here: Can a writer have a beer in the press box?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t remember seeing it, but I also don’t look at what other people are drinking

Guest: I’m very skeptical of defensive metrics. I think they can greatly inflate or deflate a player’s WAR, which makes me a little skeptical of WAR. How much merit does my concern have?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, you’re right to be concerned

Dan Szymborski: defense is volatile and hard to measure

Dan Szymborski: but by the same token, you can’t *ignore* it

Dan Szymborski: so you have to always remember there’s an error range for WAR

Dan Szymborski: and when the differences are the defense, have additional grains of salt

Adam: Which happens first, MLB expands outside of North America, or any team wins five additional World Series titles?

Dan Szymborski: Outside north america

Brosephina: I love how Soto is “uncomfortable” with the trade talk…after he rejected one of the largest deals in MLB history.   What did he think would happen?

Dan Szymborski: The nats didn’t have to make it as clear in public as they did

Adam: Which fan base, in your experience, is the best at handling adversity/long stretches of noncompetitiveness?

Dan Szymborski: Rockies fans

Dan Szymborski: They get good attendance even when the team is bleak

Dan Szymborski: and there’s pot to take care of any of the after-effects of watching the Rockies

Dan: Zips seems oddly…positive on Jarred Kelenic? Why is it high on someone striking out 27% of the time at AAA after playing in MLB

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda depressing that *that* projection is oddly positive now!

Dan Szymborski: People get too nuts about minor league K% when the player is killing the ball in a league

Dan Szymborski: I had this fight a million times about Bryant some years ago

Dan Szymborski: He had like a 27% strikeout rate in 2014

Dan Szymborski: in the minors

Dan Szymborski: But when a guy is slugging .600 or .700 like Bryant was, they’re *incentivized* to getting more balls into play

Dan Szymborski: Kelenic was awful last year in the majors too, but his contact rate was right around league aveage

Tim: To add on to the defensive metric comment, I think for huge positive outliers (see Beltre, Arenado, etc) they’re undoubtedly unbelievable defensively, but *if* defensive metrics are wrong, the error bars aren’t symmetrical and their value is likely being overstated.

Morbo: Follow up on Carpenter, Yankee stadium’s short porch is basically tailor made for Carpenter. He has elite launch angles but his exit velocity has fallen off so in most parks he’ll hit it to the warning track whereas it goes out in Yankee Stadium. Busch has the second lowest HR park factor for lefties over the last 3 years so it punished Carpenter more then most. 122 for Yankee vs 71 for Busch

Dan Szymborski: There’s still a gulf between taking advantage of a stadium and a 278 wrC+!

David: It’s been a while since you’ve stopped by Lookout landing but if you’re interested, there’s been a commenter doing fanposts using manually grabbed savant data for Kelenic, little interesting to see how he is progressing

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, the Szymborski Alarm no longer works

Dan Szymborski: There’s now no mechanism for searching comments at sbnation blogs

Todd: With so many intriguing rental pieces and their playoff odds in decline, should the Red Sox consider being sellers?

Dan Szymborski: Depends where they are

Dan Szymborski: if they drop farther, then yes, they should

Dan Szymborski: Especially JDM and Eovaldi

David: The general trades I’ve seen for the Mariners for Soto+Corbin have been Kirby + Marte + Hancock + (lesser prospects or  Trammell/Kelenic). That’s got to be too steep right? Not that the Nationals shouldn’t ask /receive that much but that almost completely wipes out the farm. It seems like the narrative they are in is a bit much.

Dan Szymborski: You may be able to construct a package without both Kirby and Marte, but Hancock’s likely to be in there and there would likely be a good quantity of lower level prospects

Dan Szymborski: someone’s going to pay a *lot* for Soto I t hink

Dan Szymborski: Especially if the Nats aren’t stupid and insist on packaging Corbin

Dan Szymborski: Paying $59 million to Corbin allows them to “buy” prospects, after all

Dansby SwanSong: Since June 1, JDM is hitting just .241/.309/.399/.707  That’s league average.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of multiple endpoint analysis

Dan Szymborski: Like I’ll joke about Hosmer having a .602 OPS since May 1st

Dan Szymborski: but there’s nothing magical about that date that makes that a baseline in any sense

Pedro: Grandal hitting well in his rehab assignment; candidate for a second half rebound?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so

Dan Szymborski: And they can use him!

YerAWizardMatty: The article detailing Carpenter’s swing change from this offseason was very good

Michael: Who says no to Soto + Corbin for Torres, Schmidt, Peraza, Medina, Vargas

Dan Szymborski: Nats I think

Dan Szymborski: I doubt a Torres rental interests them; you’d need to be a three way

Dan Szymborski: and I think they’re really going to want one traditional high-impact offense dude

Dan Szymborski: And I think they’d be insistent on Volpe as the top-line SS, not Peraza

Dan: If you magically knew a prospect was going to age like Barry Bonds and noone else did could you sign them to a 25 year contract?

Dan Szymborski: Well, if I knew that I certainly would!

Dan Szymborski: Though their agent might be suspicious I have a time machine

Garrosh: This feels like a dumb question, but Taylor Ward is over and not coming back, right?

Dan Szymborski: It is worrisome he’s backslid in his approach

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: He’s got a swingstika going now

HappyFunBall: If you were the Nats, and sure that you’re going to move Bell in a separate deal, would you take on Hosmer if SD was willing to take Corbin and that’s what it took to get better prospects?

Dan Szymborski: I probably would take Hosmer

Dan Szymborski: Praise him constantly and keep telling him how much the team is going to suck and hope he opts out

samm: the nats are trying to sell the team. they will do what make the team an attractive thing to buy for lots of money. No one is going to be willing to pay more because they have X prospect or xyzandq prospect. But the would be willing to pay more for a lesser payroll, or just having Juan Soto.

Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s changing a $2-$3 billion bid because of a short-term Patrick Corbin contract

Dan: The team the has the most games remaining against the nationals has their playoff odds increased the most by trading for Soto.

Adam: What % of random players from the ’90s can you picture what they look like in your head?  Like, if I just say “Joey Hamilton,” is his face burned in your memory?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, 90s faces are more burned into my head than *current* ones

Dan Szymborski: It’s juts a product of the age I was at

Dan: If Buster Posey wanted to he could play MLB baseball this October right?

Dan Szymborski: Well, if he signs before the roster deadline, sure

Dan Szymborski: He’d have a month or two to get the cobwebs out

Dan Szymborski: Players come back after being injured for half a season

Dan Szymborski: and he wasn’t injured

Dan Szymborski: just kinda chilling

Dan Szymborski: (I assume)

jj: I think the ‘heater’ comment was to not use it like ‘this team is on a heater’ aka hot streak.

Dan Szymborski: oh yeah, ikill that with fire

drinternet: Do the Jays have enough prospects to offer in a deal for Soto without including Bichette/Manoah?

Dan Szymborski: I think they could, but don’t think you’ll still have Moreno *and* Orelvis!

Dan Szymborski: and honestly, *or* may be more accurate

Farhandrew Zaidman: We all agree that mic’ing the battery of Cortes and Trevino was the best part of the Allstar Game, right?

Vlad’s Dad: What is the baseball equivalent of the fake grass they put on sushi trays?

Dan Szymborski: fake commissioner on podium

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to take off for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!