Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/23/18

Dan Szymborski: We have started!

Dan Szymborski: A few minutes late.  I totally space on the fact that I need to start it early to let a queue get going and I panicked.

Dan Szymborski: And I can’t figure out how to get it appear on the front page now! lol

Dan Szymborski: I got it to appear last week, so there’s something that I did last week that I didn’t do this week.

Dan Szymborski: So I’m going to be in wordpress panicking for a few minutes more.

Dan Szymborski: I assume none of you saw this on the front page somehow?

pierogies: You think the buccos are going to add at the deadline?  Maybe a Chris Archer deal?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Pirates are more likely sellers than buyers.

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Hey Dan, this doesn’t show up on the main FG page, I had to click on your name to get to it.

Dan Szymborski: trust me, I’m panicking in Slack!

Sarah: Is Ryon Healy replacement level? Is Dan Vogelbach not? Hwo would you deal with Cano, Healy, Vogelbach, and Cruz in the 1B/DH 2019 roster spot

Dan Szymborski: I do think Healy’s RL.  I’m not crazy about the team saying tha tGordon’s the 2B now

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s still time for Gordon to work out in center and it seems a waste to have cano at first

rschutzpah: Who all gets traded by the Tigers?

Dan Szymborski: I think Castellanos is traded and Fulmer is not.

Dan Szymborski: And I think they get a taker for Zim

Dbo: With Noah Syndergaard getting Hand, Foot, and Mouth disease. I don’t know if I’m playing Oregon Trail or watching the MLB. Hopefully, he’s well soon!

Dan Szymborski: It really feels like a disease that needs a less unwieldy name

GY: Do Cody Allen and Andrew Miller receive QO’s this offseason? A risk for small market Indians but seems like both likely to decline right?

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty sure Miller does.  I don’t think Allen does.

Dan Szymborski: b/c Miller’s far more likely, I think, to get a contract over the threshold

Dan Szymborski: It’s a bigger risk when you get a Sandwich B pick (under $50 million) than a Sandwich A.

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Judge>JRam>Soto?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say anyone’s clearly better than Ramirez right now.

Dbo: According to Dan Clark, “There are 286 major and minor league teams. The #rioles’ .280 win percentage ranks no. 286 on that list.” So that means there is nowhere but up from here. Pop the Champagne!

Amaury Telemaco: So are you telling me Carson is useful for something?

Dan Szymborski: He is!

Amaury Telemaco: Emojis are back! Dan, can’t tell you how much I love these. Really spices up the chat.

Dan Szymborski: If you like feces, which is most of the emotes.

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: You are correct. I navigated to your name and it appeared under your posts.

Matt: Nope. Had to click you name in the chat schedule at the bottom

Dan Szymborski: We’re on the front page now!

Sarah: (I saw it on twitter)

Dan Szymborski: Apparently, the site was down briefly and I hadn’t actually done anythign wrong.

Dan Szymborski: And I got confused and thought I didn’t do something.

Erik K: When do you think the White Sox call up Eloy/Kopech? Also, should fans be worried about Reynaldo Lopez’s regression (has had ugly peripherals all season)?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect we see Eloy this year, but we actually may not.  The White Sox can argue “hey, let’s give him a half-season at AAA too.”

Dan Szymborski: I was becoming less optimistic about Kopech coming up — his June was a mess – but he seems to be back on track.

THE Average Sports Fan: What do you think MLB should have done with Hader?

Dan Szymborski: It was a really awkward situation for MLB to penalize.

Dan Szymborski: They probably did about what was reaosnable.

Dan Szymborski: The odds that Hader is a bit of a douche have obviously gone up a bit, but I’ve personally got a problem with baseball punishing people for things they did pre-baseball when they were minors.  Especially when it was words rather than deeds.

Dan Szymborski: Some of the things he said were nasty and repulsive, but in the end, they’re also not words.  And despite what some people will say, words are not violence.  If he tweeted them today, I’d expect MLB to have a much stronger case for significant discipline

Amaury Telemaco: If this chat were a sandwich, what kind of sandwich would it be? I’m going with pop tart, because it’s total anarchy

Matt: On a scale of blue to potato, how much Russia are you?

Dan Szymborski: Cacaphony

Dbo: How thick can a soup become before it becomes a stew? Also, according to wikipedia Chili is a meat stew!

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s not just density, but intent as well.

Jonny: What would be a realistic return for Zack Wheeler?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, not all that much.  The problem is that teams picking up pitchers for the homestretch want to be buying their way *out of* the risk they have, not taking on new risk.

Eminor3rd: Congratulations — you have reached the front page! How does it feel? What’s next in your career?

Dan Szymborski: To successfully figure it out BEFORE chat

AK: Why did the FanGraphs playoffs odds change (ever so slightly) during the All-Star break when no games are actually taking place?

Dan Szymborski: I believed that the Manny stuff changed.

Dan Szymborski: I still do my own projections; I’m not in charge of the FG ones!

CrashedDavis: Os most successful pitcher development since Mussina: Britton or Bedard (great 1 year, and then that trade…)?

Dan Szymborski: Probably britton

Keirmaier’s General Malaise: Hi Dan.
After a few weeks as a fulltime FG writer how impressed are the cats?
I suggest the Mets hire Theodoric of York to rid Master Syndergaard of his medieval ailment.
Finally..just how impresssive is Juan Soto’s first ~50 games in MLB considering he had 8 games over Single A? Ridiculous numbers for a 19 year old.

Dan Szymborski: Soto’s been insane.  I didn’t even think I needed to project him in 2018.

Jackson C: Does the all-star break kill hot streaks?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen little evidence of this.

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Do you realize how futile it is to be human?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t live for the lulz if I wasn’t partially a nihilist at heart.

Vinícius: Miss click

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: You did it Dan! It’s up!!!

Al: Is Eugenio Suarez really this good? Does he finish the season with 30/100/.300?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s really good, but not THIS really good.  I think he’ll fall short in BA, pass in RBI, and the HR is a coin flip

Jean Luc : Is Trey Mancini a good player for the Phils to target?  Could be a nice change of scenery guy for them to gamble on.  Any idea on what he’d cost prospect or player wise?  It’d be even better if the Phils could grab him and Brach.  Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly interested in Mancini

Dan Szymborski: He’s been awful this year, he wasn’t *that* good last year and he’s 26.

Dan Szymborski: Remember, he had a sub .800 OPS in AAA

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Do M’s resign Nelson Cruz?

Dan Szymborski: I think they do

Vinícius: Greg Bird for Moustakas, seems fair?

Dan Szymborski: Meh for the Royals.

Dan Szymborski: Bird’s already near arbitration.

Dan Szymborski: Royals should be more interested in a quantity of more lottery-type prospects at this point

Dan Szymborski: There are other teams that ought to be more interested in Bird.

Jean Luc : What are your thoughts on Josh Donaldson?  Is he worth a gamble for the Phils this deadline?  What would he command in return?  Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s traded.

Dan Szymborski: Simply because he’s *very* risky in the short-term, but a *very* good candidate to QO.  I don’t think the Blue Jays can beat the sandwich pick here given the huge unknowns with Donaldson for his 2018 contributions.

Dan Szymborski: I know the team *hopes* to trade him, but his injuries have thrown that plan into the meat grinder.

Bo: Does the Familia deal suggest the asking price for relievers may be a bit lower than expected, or is this just the Mets doing Mets things?

Dan Szymborski: I think it was fine.  Everyone talks about Hand/Cimber getting Mejia, but they get a LOT of Hand/Cimber for that price.

Dan Szymborski: something like 7 2/3 years for the two combined.  You only get 1/3 a year of Mejia.

Dan Szymborski: And remember, the most desperate contender was the one to already *get* Hand/Cimber.

Dan Szymborski: I know I’m in the minority here.

Dan Szymborski: A lot of my colleagues do not like the trade at all.

Dan Szymborski: But I think Wahl is interesting

Dan Szymborski: and yeah, Chapman fetched Torres, but there’s a real ULTRA-ELITE premium when it comes to getting a closer.

Dan Szymborski: (and I didn’t really like that trade from the Cubs side anyway)

Von Hayes: Will the Rockies trade for anything

Dan Szymborski: Depends if Desmondian gamers become available

SteveTheMotivator: Hi Dan. What are your thoughts on Austil Slater? Should he be getting more playing time? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Austin Slater definitely deserves a look

Dbo: What are you doing for National Chili dog day on Thursday (7/26)? or as I like to call it National hot dog and meat stew sandwich day!

Dan Szymborski: Remember, I’m near cincinnati, so I can’t eat chili dogs because they’re going to typically be CINCINNATI CHILI dogs.

NolansWebGems: Could the Rockies get Degrom without moving Rodgers?

Dan Szymborski: They’d have to move a whole lot else if they’re going to do it without Rodgers

kevinthecomic: i think that Cubs fan is getting unfairly demonized — the kid shoulda held on to the ball — finders keepers, losers weepers

Mail: I really doubt that you weren’t the culprit, Dan.

Bo: Or did you crash the site?

Heathcliff Slocumb: How much lude could a ludechuck chuck if a ludechuck could chuck ludes?

Dan Szymborski: 7 ludical units per metric hour.

Mr. Nor’easter: Robbie Ray continues to get high marks from touts match-up by match-up, but the results aren’t there. Do you see him becoming a servicable start ROS? He hasn’t been yet …

Dan Szymborski: I’m very much a Ray optimist.

Mail: How are the cats?

Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s sleeping off some roast beef he got at lunch.  I don’t know where Mercutio is.

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is taking a nap on the office couch after bringing me her toy hedgehog, Hedge Fund.

Paul Spider: Hi Paul.

Koven Appuer: Brewers fans should be punished for giving Hader the standing ovation. Manfred should shut down the stadium for one game and put signs up that say “No Fans Allowed Today”

Dan Szymborski: The ovation was a little trolly

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I am team No Emojis, personally.

Holy crap Hader: We’ve all probably done similar things we regret.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’ve done something quite like THAT

Dan Szymborski: Now, it took me awhile after the 90s to stop saying “gay” and “retard” as insults, because that’s what we called each other as kids, without the meaning of those.  Like Michael Scott said, retard was something you called your friends when they were acting retarded, not actual disabled people.

Dan Szymborski: But I learned.  And I certainly never went around saying I hated gay people.

Dan Szymborski: Hating anybody seems like a royal waste of time.  Except maybe Murray Chass.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t really *hate* the guy, I just think he’s a professional clown.

Tatis’s Injured Hand: Tatis Jr’s injury.
This deserves a massive poop emoji.   An Elephant sized poop emoji.  Love the head first slide.

Dan Szymborski: We just have the one poopmoji

Derek in Little Rock: Which MLB win totals did you take this year?

Dan Szymborski: Lemme pull up my list of bets, hang on

Dan Szymborski: OK for teams

Dan Szymborski: Braves OVER 74.5

Dan Szymborski: Braves NL East Champions at +1800

Dan Szymborski: Washington Nationals Under 92.5 +155

Dan Szymborski: Phillies over 75.5 Rangers under 77.5 Tigers over 68.5 Royals Under 71.5

Dan Szymborski: and two really bad ones, Orioles over 73 and Mariners under 81.5

Dan Szymborski: Some of my other bets include Arenado MVP at +700, Archer Cy Young at +4000, kershaw over 2.20 ERA at -115

Holy crap Noah: That hand foot and mouth thing can’t be a horse thing because of the “hand”, right?

Bob Cobb: i hate to ask this question because I love the player and hate the insinuation, but with the incentives as they are and history of this sort of thing it may be pertinent: how likely do you think it is that Juan Soto is older than 19?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like that kind of speculation.  I only know what I can prove.

Dan Szymborski: The rest is just masturbation.

San Dzymborski: When i started reading this website I wondered for a long time if you and Carson Cistulli were actually the same person and the Cistulli persona was an elaborate prank

Angelus Novus: I’m currently working on a bizzaro cosmic mystery. The local Cosmic Coffee has been releasing Northern Snakeheads (bane-of-aquatic ecosystems) into the sewer system. A timetraveling Burmese Python pairs with a postwitch witch to troll a virtual reality company. The city’s Trash Wheels begin to gain consciousness. Local Hero Tavon (an avid eco-feminist and mystic in the tradition of Ghost Dog, WallE and Walter Benjamin) joins Homeless Santa in a quest to find his lost daughter. The cities fig trees, come to life. (coming soon to a book store near you)

Usagi YoSzymbo: What advice can you give to a prospective cat owner?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t expect you can teach them to do things you don’t want them to do.

Breezy: Who has the charisma, skill, and social media presence to be the marketable face of baseball?

Dan Szymborski: BARTOLO

Dan’s Hate Mail: Sorry to hear the quality of your hate mail has declined so much this year Dan.  For those out there in mum’s basement who have nothing else better to do…could you pass along a few pointers as to how to really stick it to you? Like getting shanked in a maximum security prison shower hate. You need to get some joy out of a properly worded hate letter I think.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not fun if I have to coach the hate mail.  Hate mail has to be organic.

Angelus Novus: I’m thinking Britton brings back two 150-200 overall type guys. What are you thinking?

Dan Szymborski: Eh

Dan Szymborski: I’d rather have Familia than Britton

Dan Szymborski: Britton has a buttload of risk

Dan Szymborski: and I’m talking a Sir Mix-a-lot buttload

John: Mancini is still better than Chris Davis!

Dan Szymborski: Henry Mancini might be better than Chris Davis.

Angelus Novus: I think Ignatius Reilly from A Confederacy of Dunces is one of the most brilliant characters in American Literature

Concrete fan: Who do you see winning the second WC-spot in the AL?

Dan Szymborski: M’s the favorite.  The pythag edge is baked into the cake.

Bob Cobb: do you expect to see Peter Alonso at all this year for the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: MAYBE a mini espresso

Iglesias: Do we see Rasiel move or the Reds going to hold him?

Dan Szymborski: They should move him but they will not.

Concrete fan: What was the worst sandwich you ever had?

Dan Szymborski: Once in elementary school I bit into a fish sandwich and it was icy in the middle like i was eating a fish popsicle

Dan Szymborski: haven’t been able to eat a fish sandwich variant since then.

Dan Szymborski: Weird things turn me off to food.

Dan Szymborski: Like I always cut up my apples because when I was little, I had a dream that I bit into an apple and my two front teeth came off in the apple.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t been able to psychologically eat an apple just biting from it since.

Dan Szymborski: Yup, losing teeth while eating an apple is the childhood nightmare that haunts me.

Dan Szymborski: Also, weirdly enough, this carved wooden stork that my great-uncle gave my mom stabbed me in a dream and that always freaked me out

Mail: Is Jerry Dipoto a top-10 GM?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

AK: I’m mildly disappointed that Tim Tebow’s hand injury will likely prevent him from appearing in the majors this year.  If there was ever a team and time to let that circus play out, it would be the 2018 Mets.  Sigh.

Eminor3rd: I thought the poop emoji was a beehive, and I was desperately trying to understand what bee meme I had missed.

Dan Szymborski: IT A FLY

Dan Szymborski: Then again, I thought the twitter goat emote was a scotty dog

Dan Szymborski: and I was trying to figure out why people would say something is a scotty dog when they liked it

Dan Szymborski: I like scotty dogs, but I had never heard the phrase “That play was a scotty dog!”

Dan Szymborski: Until it was pointed out to me that it was a goat for greatest of all time

LFC Mike: If the Astros were a cereal what would they be?  Cheerios?
If the Orioles were a cereal what would they be? King Vitamin?

Dan Szymborski: THATS KING VITAMAN

Dan Szymborski: The Orioles

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: The Royals

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: The Astros of course

Dan Szymborski:

Matt: Dan, I noticed in a screen grab you posted that you live near Kettering. I used to travel to Kettering for work, but you never invited me over for dinner. What gives?

Dan Szymborski: I DIDN’T KNOW ANY OF THESE FACTS

Dan Szymborski: If someone wants to grab beer randomly or something, they know where my Twitter was

Von Hayes: Could you throw a 48 mph pitch?

Dan Szymborski: I threw 70 as a kid, so I think I could still throw 48

Anonymous: How many teams is it okay to root for?

Dan Szymborski: It’s up to you

I had a movie made about me: Hey Dan – Billy here

Dan Szymborski:

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, obviously you (like any sensible human being) hated Carson Cistulli before you came to be employed at Fangraphs(dot)com. Now that you have to submit things to him to be edited and perhaps even (gasp) take his suggestions on writing assignments, how is your personal health? I am concerned that amount of disgust could manifest itself into a tumor or ulcer or something.

Dan Szymborski: Truth is, outside of schtick, I get along quite well with Carson.

Dbo: What if Hader actually meant he hated joyful people and was using another synonym?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s used it that way since like 1925.

Szymbooo Slice: Sooo…now that Manny is gone what’s next for the Birds? 18 years of darkness and despair?

Dan Szymborski: Already was going to be.

Matt: At least Murray is a *professional* clown, you amateur.

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, I recently started grilling my burritos after I wrap them and am now an evangelist for this process. I don’t know how many disappointing un-grilled burritos I ate in my life, but I know I’ll never make one again.

CrashedDavis: i learned what cincinnati chili dogs are today. they are an abomination

Dan Szymborski: Imagine chili that tastes a bit like pumpkin pie filling.

Dan Szymborski: And then it’s served ON SPAGHETTI

Matt: The banner up tap says that Dan Szymborski will be chatting at 3 pm. If 3 pm rolls around and you, Dan Szymborski, are not still chatting, I will sue the living daylights out of Fangraphs for false advertising.

Dan Szymborski: DIDN’T SAY WHICH 3 PM

hscer: I’d suspect if I were an analytical expert, that would only increase my wariness of betting on sports, even if I would thus be better informed. But you’re not the first I’ve noticed who does it

Dan Szymborski: I bet only on the ones where I feel the odds are most in my favor.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a compulsive better and I don’t bet on anything I feel that I’m unsure about!

hscer: how much do you stand to make if the Braves hold?

Dan Szymborski: Each of those bets was $500.

Hate Mail Template: Dearest Dan,

Jake: How do you evaluate a player lie Avisail Garcia who is hitting well again but in a completely different way from last season?

Dan Szymborski: Problem is Avi never told use he was an Mp4

abel: will the twins move rodney?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect they do

Dan Szymborski: I really really need Rodney to play for awhile.

Dan Szymborski: After Ichiro’s retirement, I’m down to three players older than me:  Bartolo Colon, Fernando Rodney, and Joaquin Benoit

Dan Szymborski: unless i missed someone

stever20: What % chance to you give the Mets trading deGrom here this month?

Dan Szymborski: 10

Hate Mail Template: Do you have a projection for your Cats’ Mice/Kibble ratio for the next 10 years you have them under contract for?

Dan Szymborski: In 20 years of cats I’ve only had the one mouse, which the cats found and murdered very quickly.

Kovin Appuer: Per Passan, Royals are “poking around” on Ryan Healy. Would he be the “perfect” “addition” for the Royals’ “stretch run”? Also, how do you think Healy feels about all of this poking?

Dan Szymborski: Feels like something the Royals would do because Royals

John: On the LUDE point, to me it feels like calling “LUNCH BREAKS” “LUNCHES”

Dan Szymborski: Lunch is measured by the midday satiation index.

Kosch: Dogs > Cats!!!!

Dan Szymborski: Not if you like sleeping until 10 AM

Matt: the Mariners: lucky charms

Josh Nelson: Do you think Adam Engel will always be on the White Sox?

Dan Szymborski: Like forever?

Dan Szymborski: In the long run we’re all dead.

Al Gone Quinn: A buddy called the cops on a 19 yr old girl with road rage after she threw a half full can of Sprite through his open window. Legit?

Dan Szymborski: It’s free soda and it’s clear.

Dan Szymborski: Now through grape soda is road rage.  That stuff will stain.

A Kind Man With Good Intentions: Zack Greinke: HOF trajectory?

Dan Szymborski: He ought to be, but remember this is a Hall that’s having trouble getting Mussina and Schilling in there.

Dan Szymborski: Though with Jack Morris in the Hall, you could say there are 75 MLB pitchers on a hall trajectory.

hscer: what do you think The Athletic’s longterm prospects are? I can’t bring myself to subscribe

Dan Szymborski: It’s great content, you should subscribe to The Athletic and to FanGraphs!

Dan Szymborski: Long-term, nobody in media ever know where they’ll be in five years.

Dan Szymborski: They’ve got some terrific people behind the scenes there.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: “Yes, because the cats have *never* woken us up,” I mumbled sarcastically.

Dan Szymborski: But they’ll just meow a bit, they won’t anger pee on your shoes if you don’t wake up

LegalEagle: Is there really a difference between AA and AAA? Maybe it’s confirmation bias, but seems like a lot more prospects get the call straight from AA.

Dan Szymborski: There is.

hscer: I’ve always said I like my cats and other people’s dogs. (By always I mean for a few months now.)

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time for me to head out for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, everyone!  As a reminder, you can find my work here at FanGraphs all the time now.  And at DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Next week, I’ll get the chat up and we’ll have a queue and all that fancypants crap again.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for not overdoing the poop emoji.

Bo: As a recent (less than a week ago) subscriber to The Athletic, I would highly recommend. Especially if your job involves having lots of downtime on the internet.

LFC Mike: I will get started on my cereal hatemail to you.