Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/30/20

Dan Szymborski: Greetings and hello!

Chris: Are you on the Kyle Lewis hype train yet?

Dan Szymborski: July.

Dan Szymborski: More seriously, he’s been a lot of fun so far, but the threshold for me greatly changing my view of a player in a positive direction is quite high when just the season before, they struggled against Double-A pitchers. At least relative to how prospects typically fare.

Peter Thomas: Dan. How should we evaluate catcher defense? And if a team has one of the few top catchers, and they should be considered MVP candidates for their defense, doesn’t that automatically downgrade the value of the pitchers on his staff?

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky. We do try to assign framing credit to the pitcher and hitter. And there’s stuff like passed balls, errors, stolen bases, etc.

Dan Szymborski: But there are likely some things that are hard to capture.

Dan Szymborski: And that’s from an overall evaluation standpoint too, not just stats. Catching defense is tricky.

Friend: Good morning (where I live) Dan!

Dan Szymborski: Dzień dobry!

LFC Mike: Great effort on the opening day chats Dan.

Dan Szymborski: BUT NOT GREAT RESULTS?

Dan Szymborski: I hope you all enjoyed our Opening Day chats last Thursday and Friday.

Dan Szymborski: I tried to tone down the weirdness a bit, to make it easier for my colleagues to deal with me.

Dan Szymborski: It wouldn’t have been appreciated if I turned the chat into a whole SzymChat Wacky Shack.

Josh: What’s the plan for the “Fangraphs Live!“ streams? Are they done? If so, are the results of that season known?

Dan Szymborski: I believe we’re still doing them!

Dan Szymborski: We’re doing the Home Run Derby next.

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m supposed to take my mom downtown for a COVID test at some point in the next few days, as ordered by her doctor.

Dan Szymborski: (She’s only 65, but she has the sense of direction of Jeff Francoeur facing a slider)

Sodo Mojo: So as a Mariners fan I’m mostly looking at development this year.  I know Kyle Lewis can’t keep this up and only has 100 MLB at bats but is it reasonable to say that he is a little better than his projections peg him at going forward?

Dan Szymborski: Well, naturally! One should only think of a projection as the center point of an array of possibilities, captured a specific moment of time.

Dan Szymborski: Every good and bad at-bat subtly moves the mass to the left or the right

Chris: As fans should we commend the royals for playing singer and now bubic or should we call them idiots for not using service time rules correctly

Dan Szymborski: I think in a year like this, you can’t worry about service time. Even with the team’s obvious interest in illegally manipulating service clocks, there are no minor leagues this year, so service time is the only way you’re going to actually have these guys playing baseball.

It’s July: In early March, I drafted Syndergaard, Verlander, Kopech, Alex Wolf, and Stroman to name few for my fantasy team. Other than changing my team name to “Skyline Chili with Extra Beans”..any recommendations?

Dan Szymborski: WHY HAVE YOU, MAD SCIENTIST, COMPRESSED ALEX WOOD AND RANDY WOLF INTO ONE HORRIFYING AMALGAM?

Morbo: Hi Dan

Dan Szymborski: Yo

Friend: Last night showed that the man-on-second rule doesn’t always work.  Any thoughts, besides the correct opinion that you hate the rule?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly exciting and can lead to some interesting decision.

Dan Szymborski: But I still feel it goes against one of the basic, foundational concepts of baseball the game: you don’t get bases for free unless the defense allows them.

Dan Szymborski: So there are a lot of wacky rules I’d be interested in, but this is a foundational thing, and should remain constant.

Guest: Nate Pearson looked pretty good last night. What do you think he’ll be like for the rest of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be solid, though I don’t expect him to go deep in to many (if any) games.

Dan Szymborski: Plus, it appears that the extra time he needed to sit and watch people playing baseball was precisely the amount of time he needed to become a real major leaguer! How fortunate for the Blue Jays!

Jim Leyland Palmer: The most shocking thing to me about your Marlins twitter spat, is that there is even a “Marlins twitter” at all to begin with. Figured it would be a few dozen enthusiasts, not the full knee jerk reactions for the bottom of the bucket that fill the twitter comment section of most teams posts

Dan Szymborski: They finally had a common enemy!

BeefLoaf108: What Arby’s sandwich has the highest fWAR?

Dan Szymborski: Plain Jane roast beef. Go with the classic.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had Arby’s in nearly a year. My association of Arby’s with Galileo the cat makes me feel sad when I see an Arby’s now, not hungry.

Dan Szymborski: And he was deprived of one final last roast beef. 24 hours before he died, when the vet thought he was recovering fast enough that surgery wouldn’t be necessary, I skipped going to Arby’s as we usually do post-vet since his jaw was sore. But he didn’t get better and he never got his belated sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: He had an abscess in his jaw line that was quite deep and the vet was reluctant to put a 20-year-old cat under unless it was absolutely necessary. Since his fever went down from the Thursday to Friday and the swelling went down, the vet thought it was safer to send him home to recover.

Dan Szymborski: But he deteriorated very quickly over a 12-hour-period early Saturday morning.

James: What number is higher at the end of the season: number of Marlins wins or number of Marlins positive COVID tests?

Dan Szymborski: It’s going to be close, I think. The positives should slow down, but there’s a very good chance that a bunch of Marlins games just don’t happen.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Reminder: it is allowed to believe both that Manfred’s punishment for the Astros was too light and that headhunting is wrong. (However, you are not allowed to be opposed to making faces at teams you don’t like. That is great.)

Dan Szymborski: Manfred’s punishment for the Astros wasn’t too light because it was precisely the punishment he was allowed to give out without consulting the players first: none.

Dan Szymborski: So giving the players immunity cost MLB precisely nothing.

Dan Szymborski: For the same reason Fay Vincent’s steroid memo meant nothing.

James: Let’s pretend for a moment that Eric Hosmer’s newfound launch angle is intentional and repeatable. How much would this change affect the Padres’ moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say, but Hos walking the walk when it comes to launch angle is a very positive development. ZiPS already projected the Padres to do well while getting nearly nothing from first base, so anything more than nearly nothing is just a yummy cherry

Friend: Did you watch Pearson’s start yesterday?

Dan Szymborski: Only parts. Unfortunately, I kind of forgot he was starting and it was the fifth before I realized it.

RMR: Should the White Sox be worried about the back end of their rotation (Cease, Rodon and Gonzalez with Lopez going down)?  Or is this just July?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be worried yet.

RMR: I know it hasn’t happened yet, but how quickly do things like plate discipline stats stabilize (i.e. O-Swing, whiff rate, etc.)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to give an answer other than “quickly” because it’s not a binary thing you can easily apply.

Dan Szymborski: The larger the change in something, the fewer PA/BF you need to believe there’s some change.

Isolated Thinker: I was stunned but not shocked that the majority of Marlins wanted to keep playing.  I understand Rojas is the clubhouse leader but isn’t this the kind of thing the manager should be handling?  I was surprised to see Mattingly practically take a back seat trying to explain what’s going on with his team.  I think an important question is were there any consequences outlined or enforced for players going out and partying by management?  Although it’s not exposed to the media, I’d be surprised if Jeter is not around the team providing leadership and advice regularly.  I understand the investigation is still pending, but is it premature to shine Mattingly and Jeter in a dark light during this “crisis”?

Dan Szymborski: I certainly did on Twitter!

Dan Szymborski: And got all the Marlins fans mad at me.

Dan Szymborski: I’m of the belief that any Marlin front office member/manager who knew about the tests and had the power to prevent the team from taking the field ought to be suspended for the rest of the season. People who can’t be trusted to aggressively contain COVID-19 spread endanger the entire 2020 season (and possibly, lives!)

Dan Szymborski: People said to me — well, yelled at me — that it’s not the job of the manager to protect against COVID-19, just get ready for the game.

Dan Szymborski: Which is exactly the reason the country is in this mess. It’s EVERYONE’s job to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Dan Szymborski: You’re not a human resources manager, for now you’re a human resources manager/virus mitigator

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a baseball writer, for now, I’m a baseball writer/virus mitigator

Dan Szymborski: and so on for every job

Dan Szymborski: (No, I don’t know your job, it’s the general you)(

BLT: Don’t know all the ins & outs, but if Soto’s situation happens in playoffs, will the home team’s city have to clear the player to play?  If so, that could lead to some interesting timing on decisions

Dan Szymborski: I think this is a very fluid situation.

John: What do you make out of Dylan Carlson? Do you think he can cement him self in the CF role for the Cardinals given the struggle of Harrison Bader both last and this season? Not necessarily writing Bader off, he’s still young, but i assume productivity has to matter more in the short season.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not on the Bader panic train yet.

Dan Szymborski: I think realistically, O’Neill/Fowler are more at risk

Dan Szymborski: With defense included, Bader was hardly *lousy* last year!

RMR: Is Benintendi broken?  Obviously early, but last year was concerning and it’s looking like he’s still kind of lost.

Dan Szymborski: It kinda feels like he’s in the wrong era.

Dan Szymborski: He’s not Desmond/Hosmer or anything

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine, but I don’t think his ceiling is *super* high

RMR: Are the Rays going to ramp up their starters more as the season goes on?  I wouldn’t be as nervous with most teams, but with them I’m kind of wondering if this is going to be a season long strategy of pulling guys very early.

Dan Szymborski: The Rays are a mystery to all who predict things.

RMR: Obviously only one start, but Zac Gallen had a moderately high BB rate last year once he came up too (much higher than his MiLB stats would hint at).  Is this just small sample still or is he a guy that kind of needs to nibble at the ML level because he’s not an overwhelming stuff guy?

Dan Szymborski: Not worried yet.

Dan Szymborski: He *is* going to be more nibbler than power pitcher with his stuff, of course

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: My reaction when I serve Dan my award winning black bean Skyline chili:

Sean: How high do you think Gleyber Torres’ ceiling is?

Dan Szymborski: Sistine Chapel

NotGraphs Revivalist: Gerrit Cole had a 10.8% SwStr versus Baltimore yesterday and his fastball velo is down almost 1 mph, so who should I drop him for in my fantasy league – Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: This is a weird year in terms of offseason and preparation, so I’m not sure some of the things that would worry us in prior years should worry us with the same brow furrowment this time

Slapshot: If I set the over/under on the number of teams who don’t play 60 games this season at 10, do you take the over or the under?

Dan Szymborski: Over

….: Rob Manfred is by far and away the worst commissioner in N. American sports

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of competition

Daniel: So given David Fletcher’s contact skills, his hot start and the short season, you got to think he could really make a push to finish at .400, no?

Dan Szymborski: There’s certainly a chance! I might do an update if anyone’s still surging in another week.

Dan Szymborski: He finished just out of the top 25 in my piece last week on the subject.

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/toppling-ted-the-60-game-season-and-the-40…

Dan Szymborski: His rest-of-season ZiPS BA is up a whole 12 points from preseason!

Matt: Corey Seager’s batted ball results are absurdly great so far. How much of a resurgence do you expect?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s fine. Nothing too new here.

RMR: ETA on Nick Madrigal?  Sox could really use him right now with Mazara hurt (no star, but when him being out puts Delmonico in the lineup you’ve got problems).

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox have said he’s close

RMR: Errr probable COVID for Mazara, not hurt.

Dan Szymborski: WE DON”T KNOW ANY OF THIS IT’S A SECRET, HE”S OUT WITH TOTALLY-NOT-COVID

RMR: How much stock do you put in hitters switching leagues as a cause of struggles?  Thinking Mookie, Grandal, etc.  Obviously way early, but is there any data that backs this up as a common cause of early struggles?

Dan Szymborski: Not much.

Dan Szymborski: What it comes down is that it’s not 1951

Szan Dymborski: I opted out of my home league this year because I figured something like the Marlins was gonna happen. “I told you so” doesn’t feel so good in this case

Friend: Javier looked incredible last night for the Astros.  It was reminiscent of Freddy Peralta’s first major league start.  Small sample or is there something there?

Dan Szymborski: More time, though it was a great start

Morbo: Can I request a poll? I’m going to put the offensive numbers of two players over approximately the first 9 years of their careers. I’d like to see which player everyone would choose. Guesses as to the player identities are welcome too

Dan Szymborski: OK, this might look garbagey

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: oh god

COVID Ball: Article idea: have there been more pitcher injuries early this year? Anecdotally, it feels like there have been, but who trusts hunches when there is data available?!

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky given how everything’s being treated differently

sportznut: When do the Tigers call up Casey Mize?

Dan Szymborski: It’s soon if they know what they’re doing

Jimmy2Times: TylerChatwood. Tyler. Chatwood. Does he think he might be good at pitching this year?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe? He seemed to be mildly aware of home plate for a change first start

Stu: how is this possible

Dan Szymborski: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang

sportznut: Will ZiPs treat any player who opted out, as missing the 2020 season completely?  Will there be other factors that you might consider during this unprecedented time?

Dan Szymborski: Filling in projections was the best approach for 1982 and 1995 when going back retroactively.

Mac: Not sure how common it is around the league, but why are mascots considered essential enough to have at games?

Dan Szymborski: They’re avatars of the gods and without the mascots, the gods will punish baseball with COVID-20.

sportznut: Did you jump into a time machine before posting this chat (dated last week)?

Dan Szymborski: Crap on a bicycle!

Dan Szymborski: It should update soon.

Dan Szymborski: I hope Meg doesn’t notice I found yet another new way to cause her a headache.

Ajay: Which Vlad Guerrero is a better hitter right now?

Dan Szymborski: Still Jr.

Guest: My coworker likes chewy bacon, I didn’t even realize people like that existed

Dan Szymborski: eww

Morbo: I will post identities of the players after I figure out why I’m feeding my toddler for lunch

Dan Szymborski: I read this as feeding your toddler as lunch

Matt: sandwichgraphs subscriptions should be sold as an over-the-top product.

Them: Dunno about Alex Wolf, but Randy Wood is maybe a good nom de screen for a performer in baseball-centered adult films, right?

Fluffy-Uranus: Gonna have to see if my cats would enjoy Arby’s

Dan Szymborski: Only Galileo did of my cats. He was a gourmand.

Dan Szymborski: Among the meats he feasted on in his life was duck, quail, venison, elk, bison, sea urchin, rabbit.

Daron: Some managers have mentioned the lack of fans causing teams and umpires to have more heated dugout commentary/exchanges than normal. Do you think it’s a case of the fans normally drowning out much of that same dugout chatter, or are players and coaches now feeling more freedom to shout at each other without having to worry about being overheard by fans?

Dan Szymborski: I tend to think it’s more things are less drowned out

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m not *in* dugouts, even in a normal year

druidiful: With regards to the Kelly incident, I think it would have been better received if the suspension was just for throwing at the Astros and not also for taunting them.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Ted Williams: I liked your article on using ZIPS to project what Ted Williams might have done if he hadn’t missed time due to serving in the military.  I saw the blurb about Sam Rice only getting 1.3 WAR from ages 24-26, on his way to 50.3 for his career.  Edgar Martinez got 0.8 from ages 24-26, on his way to 65.5 for his career!

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, does FG not have the HOF tag for Edgar yet?

druidiful: I’m disappointed with how few of the answers so far are “July”

Dan Szymborski: People are asking me questions I can’t simply answer with July.

Dan Szymborski: Also, questions are way up this week! I’m glad baseball Qs came back with baseball!

Jordan: He could have punished the Astro’s players, he wanted an easy quiet investigation and didn’t want to deal with the avalanche of appeals he was sure to lose. He’s also tone def to his audience, proven by a lot of his decisions and his characterization of The Commissioner’s Trophy as a “piece of medal”.

Dan Szymborski: I can also rob a bank. That doesn’t mean I’m not totally getting caught.

Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA would have an easy win here. And I can tell you from conversations not-for-attribution, that there are lawyers for MLB who felt the same at the time.

LenFuego: “Manipulating” service time is not “illegal” as you stated, not even close.  It is well within the law, the CBA and the rules of the game.  Please stop with that unhelpful rhetoric.  I agree the rules should be changed to align incentives to call up players so they are not held down artificially due to service and contract concerns, but the misleading rhetoric does not help anybody.

Dan Szymborski: No, it’s is a factual matter.

Dan Szymborski: It has been ruled in arbitration repeatedly that teams must act in good faith in terms of demoting players for “skill and ability.”

Dan Szymborski: Kris Bryant didn’t lose his grievance case because the Cubs were allowed to manipulate his service time clock

Dan Szymborski: He lost his grievance case as he did not have sufficient evidence to overcome the assumption of good faith that teams are given.

Marlins fans: “And got all the Marlins fans mad at me.”
So, 5 people yelled at you?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I said 15!

Dan Szymborski: Marlins were bad enough that I brought out the limerick.

Dan Szymborski:

Frank Sobotka: The general you’s occupation is Human Resources Manager?!? We used to build [things] in this country. We used to make [things].

Dan Szymborski: It was the first job that popped into my head.

Daniel: Phillies have some COVID per Matt Gelb (trainer and clubhouse person), so … Marlins!

koogs4S: It’s July for Dan too

Service time: If the league stands by their ruling that it’s ok to leave players down a few games, doesn’t that precedent set the rule?

Dan Szymborski: There’s no such ruling that removes the good faith requirement that it’s based on skill and ability.

Dan Szymborski: Again, Bryant didn’t win because he couldn’t *prove* it.

Dan Szymborski: If you eat my sandwich and I don’t have any proof, you’ll be found not guilty in a court of culinary law.

Dan Szymborski: But that doesn’t set the precedent that you can just come into my house and eat my sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: It just means that I’m locking my doors and getting gun, you dirty sandwich thief!

Dan Szymborski: BUY YOUR OWN CHEESE, GOLDDIGGER

Dan Szymborski: OK then

Service time: If I eat your sandwich every single day and you always say it’s ok, haven’t we established a rule?

Dan Szymborski: Bryant didn’t say it was OK.

Bueller: The proof is in the pudding.

Dan Szymborski: The proof of the pudding *is in the eating*

Friend: The pudding is in the proof

Dan Szymborski: IT’S NOT LITERALLY IN THE PUDDING

Dan Szymborski: OK, 1 PM and I have radio and podcasts to do.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming y’all!

Dan Szymborski: The question velocity is way up, so I sadly wasn’t able to answer as many as during the sadly baseball-less April-June.