Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/30/26

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go

Baseball Learner: Crazy baseball rule change question. ESPN ran an article about the rise of hit batters relative to the past. The next day Curtis Mead broke his wrist on an errant pitch. What if hit batters got two bases? Do you think pitchers would be more careful? How about combining that with 3 ball walks? I think it would juice offense and balls in play by making pitchers have to aim more.

Dan Szymborski: Seems a little too niche to be worth such a major change?

Dan Szymborski: And in that, you also greatly incentivize a player to try and get hit very strongly

CT9: Is vegan chili still chili?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: Is a meatloaf made to look like chocolate cake a cake? No

JCCfromDC: What do you think of the new management /coaching staff of the Nationals? How would you handle the trade deadline if you were in Toboni’s chair (cats optional)?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ve done well so far. I would be suggest they look at buying *or* selling depending on how things work out. They shouldn’t make short-term moves for 2026, but they should look to be opportunistic

Dan Szymborski: Be chesslike. Against great players, you typically don’t win with grand moves, but through the accumulation of incremental gains, like trying your awkwardly placed knight for their strong bishop or a pawn swap that leaves you with better structure

Dan Szymborski: I think Mead-Early was one of those types of things

Dan Szymborski: Early is more useful to the Nats than Mead is

Dan Szymborski: but the focus should be on guys who can help in 2027-2029

Dan Szymborski: Like if you see a team that wants to get out of a veteran contract and you like that player, go for it

eandy: If you are AJ Preller, are you buying or selling?

Dan Szymborski: Buying. I’m not sure there’s a lot left in this era of the Padres. The shoestrings holding together the rotation have already fallen apart, and they have some BIG commitments on players who will no longer provide big value

Broken Bat: McGonigle is so impressive as a rookie with his batting skills- decision making. Is there any past 21 year old he reminds you of?

Dan Szymborski: Nick the Stick Johnson

Big Fan: How much money would the Mets need to eat to move Lindor?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t necessarily think they’d have to. 5/160, if you really believe in Lindor, isn’t that bad

Baseball Learner: Yankees almost matching their own record for injured payroll at 130 million dollars. Yikes! They have 3 pitchers and 3 hitters that each make 27 million plus and all of them have been on the IL for significant time.

captainjameshook: I beseech thee, gaze into your crystal ball and tell us. Is Kody Clemens on the move and, if so, to where?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Twins hang onto him

Baseball Learner: If you were the Yankees, and the catcher options are too expensive, would you trade for a right handed outfielder who is going to the bench by the end of September just to keep pace with the Rays

Dan Szymborski: I’d very strongly consider it (which is why I included Dane Myers in the fantasy trade piece). There’s no certainty on the timetable of Judge/Bellinger returns and if they have setbacks that push them farther, you can’t go back in September and acquire an otufielder

Person: so if you’re trying to avoid HBP injuries, the trick is to disincentivize pitchers plunking batters without incentivizing batters getting themselves plunked. what are 3 jokey creative ideas to do this

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see

Dan Szymborski: pitcher has to swap with one defensive player in the field for one batter

Dan Szymborski: pitcher has to throw with his other hand for the next batter

Dan Szymborski: Nickelodeon green slime drop from above on pitcher

uncreativeusername: Is vegan chili just ratatouille with cumin and chili powder?

Dan Szymborski: if it’s made with summer vegetables!

Person: have you and brendan ever played chess against each other?

Dan Szymborski: no

Dan Szymborski: and I’m so out of practice that I would probably get my ass kicked

jwise224: Hey Dan, thanks for this! The D-backs are in a tough spot. Their record is better than one might expect and they are in need or reinforcements to do anything meaningful. A SP or two, a leverage relief arm, and probably a bat. Do you think they’ll be ambitious enough to patch their holes?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll make some incremental improvements but no splashes

julius: You’re the Pirates, you have a pretty great offense, but you can’t hit LHP and the bullpen is a _mess_. How aggressively do you attack the problem in-season? Does the potential lockout change decision making knowing you loose a season of Skenes in the worst case, making this season more meaningful?

Dan Szymborski: I would be aggressive, but I’m not sure the Piraets actually will be

drplantwrench: what do you/ZIPS think of the angels/rangers trade?  i’d assume ZIPS has gone way down on logan, but Silseth seems to be projected for just 1 fWAR in the next few seasons

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a solid addition

Dan Szymborski: Remember, those out year projections are preseason. ZiPS likes silseth a lot more than it did four months ago

Phil: What might a Sonny Gray extension look like, given his continued effectiveness but also his advancing age? It seems like if his impending free agency is a reason to trade him, and the team’s resurgence is a reason not to, that one could perhaps just try to address the former and resolve the problem. The team has payroll flexibility if they don’t trade for some veterans.

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably be willing to give him 2/60, and someone out there might go 3/85 or something

Dan Szymborski: well, if I owned a baseball teams and had $60 million, neither or which I do

mspir: what does zips think grant taylor’s eventual transition to starter?

Dan Szymborski: Quite positively!

drplantwrench: another angels question – im a big believer in jo adell, but his actuals consistently underperform his peripherals.  do you think a change of scenery could improve his long-term outlook

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think he is what he is now

mopete12: How many years will it be until Cleveland has a league average offense? Will the sun have exploded by then?

Dan Szymborski: They had a league average one as recently as 2024!

Dan Szymborski: Though I think for at least the next year or two, mediocre offense is baked in

Dan Szymborski: Unless they make a major addition, which I don’t think they will

Phil: There’s been some talk in Boston that the last six weeks has changed Breslow’s reputation in town (for now. . .). As a cold-hearted analytics guy (meant as praise), I assume you’d disagree with that? Is Breslow, to paraphrase a certain football coach, who we thought he was?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone’s changed

Dan Szymborski: fans have a tendency to blame problems of a team on things they hate, no matter how little it makes sense, and then when their team is successful, credit it to things they like

Dan Szymborski: Remember when the problem with the Giants was that Farhan Zaidi wasn’t a True Baseball Man with a Feel for the Game who Worshipped the Analytics? Well, Buster Posey is the opposite, and the Giants are still the same.

krob4385: Trade Luis Robert Jr? Or keep him as potential 4th outfielder next year in case Soto gets hurt / Benge or Ewing have sophomore slumps?

Dan Szymborski: If someone actually offers something of value, you make that trade

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want Robert as my fourth outfielder at 1/18 ($20 million but there’s a $2 million buyout)

bndj88: Jackson Holliday is on quite a heater! Run of the mill hot streak or some meaningful gains hidden in there?

Dan Szymborski: People were far too down on him. He’s literally 22

Dan Szymborski: Reminds me a bit of Vladito early on. Peoplei called him a bust so quickly

Swings Low: Which contender would benefit most from the addition of Skubal?

Dan Szymborski: Cubs or Padres I think

mookie28: Am I a ridiculously optimistic Mets fan but is there a legit chance for a quick turnaround?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: The team is not fundamentally broken, though a lot has gone wrong

bce2003: Besides the more obvious candidates Arraez and Robbie Ray who else on the giants has a realistic chance of being moved before the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Now, it’s not *likely* but I think a Logan Webb trade is more realistic than the Giants are making known

acherluck: Tigers should probably do a soft sell, right? Get what you can for Skubal, see if anyone wants Gleyber or Tork, and then see if they can’t stumble into another 2024-esque playoff run?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

Nickname (required): If you’re cashman are you actually pursuing Herrera given he cannot throw anyone out?

Dan Szymborski: He would not be my favorite catcher to add for the Yankees

Johnny5Alive: If there’s a full year lock out how does that affect contracts? Guys who are supposed to be free agents after next year still free agents? Or do they lose?

Dan Szymborski: That’s something that negotiations would have to deal with

Dan Szymborski: Because once the CBA expires, service time has no meaning, since the CBA itself establishes what service time is and what it means

Dan Szymborski: Unless there’s a legal reason for that not being true

Dan Szymborski: which they could be, for I am not a lawyer

InsertWittyNameHere: Phillies are going through the Ryan Howard extension years again aren’t they? I know Turner had leg issues before but he has to move to the OF no? Or at least 2B, his defense is awful.

Dan Szymborski: Howard extension was worse, topped off by the silliness of signing it years ahead of time

Dan Szymborski: though Turner is struggling at short and probably needs tobe moved off the position

bndj88: I’d be OK with an increased penalty for HBP (maybe increasing # of bases throughout a game if you hit more guys) but only if we pair it with a strict definition of somebody being too close to the zone. We’ve all seen HBPs where the elbow is like 2 inches from the box. Drives me crazy, why do you get a free base for putting your body in the way of a routine ball?

Dan Szymborski: I wish umpires enforced the hit by pitch rules once in a while

Charles Bengal Tiger: Does Adley Rutschman finish his career as an Oriole? Does he finish this season as an Oriole?

Dan Szymborski: No. Yes.

O’Votto: Hunter Greene on the block, that’s the big Reds news this morning. Color me skeptical.

Dan Szymborski: I am too

Charles Bengal Tiger: Does CJ Abrams’ so far excellent 60 percent of his season burnish his projections?

Dan Szymborski: but it’s not IMPLAUSIBLE

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: implausible for last question

Swings Low: The trade: K Alcantara, M Shaw and P Ramirez for Skubal. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: I think tigers

Dan Szymborski: I think a Skubal trade, unless the prospects are crazy, will need to involve some lesser pitcher who can go into the 2027 rotation

Dan Szymborski: Which is why in the fantasy trade for it, I sent Sheehan as part of the trade

war2d2: Dan! Daaaaan. The Cubs have been playing great baseball lately, even with a rotation made of two soft-tossing lefties and a whole lotta nothing else. If you’re Jed, do you go all-in on Skubal, or try to replace quality with quantity? Something like getting Castillo from the M’s (and hope a change of scenery turns it around), Detmers from the Halos, and some other third guy (maybe Peralta, but sounds like the Mets want an unreasonable return). Making the whole plane out of #4 starters doesn’t inspire hope, but it probably costs about the same in prospect capital as getting one Skubal, and does a little more to guarantee a trip to the postseason. What say you?

Dan Szymborski: I absolutely *would* go all in on someone like Skubal

Dan Szymborski: I actually ran the numbers and the Cubs are the playoff likely time in ZiPS has has the biggest dropoff in regular season win expectation vs. postseason win expectation

MF Luder: Casey Mize feels very Rays-ish as a trade target. Who do you see Tampa Bay targeting?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think Mize is a really plausible target

GInfinity: Who do you think will be the best player traded this deadline not named Tarik Skubal? (Assuming Skubal is traded, of course)

Dan Szymborski: Mason Miller?

Dan Szymborski: Miller is absolutely wonderful, but if the Padres can get real mid and long term rotation help, you have to consider it

samhorton: What type of package would you move Francisco Alvarez for?

Dan Szymborski: I’d want a seriously high-end prospect, else I’m hanging onto him

MF Luder: The media covering the Red Sox have been all over Otto Lopez the last 72 hours or so. I too can read the back of his 2026 baseball card, but it just feels like the ultimate buy high. Am I missing something?

Dan Szymborski: It’s buy high

Dan Szymborski: As Ottos go, he’s Hightower at the end of season 1 house of the dragon

fangraphsreaderbutwoke: Pirates are 9-22 against LHP and their entire healthy lineup is sub .680 OPS against (down to the .400s) aside from Bryan Reynolds. Can you think of two lefty mashers they could realistically add?

Dan Szymborski: The aforementioned Myers is at least plausible

Dan Szymborski: a lot more lefties available than righties inj bats

Dan Szymborski: I wonder if they’d have been interested in miguel andujar, pre-broken wrist, after having had him before

Grandpaboy: Do you buy Owen Ayers as a future starting catcher? Cubs prospect nerds are adamant about not moving him for a rental…is he as good as this year’s numbers suggest.

Dan Szymborski: Completely buy, no, but he’s got a good shot

Domingo Ayala: How much do you trust minor league xwOBA?

Dan Szymborski: They’re useful, not perfect, same as any expected stat

Phillip Denny: Reports are the Rockies are asking for either Arias from the Red Sox or Gillen from the Rays for Hunter Goodman. If that’s truly the price, Goodman almost certainly stays put, right?

Dan Szymborski: Probably

Dan Szymborski: The Rockies are asking for the right guys!

Charles Bengal Tiger: Will Jesus Made, Leodalis De Vries, or Ethan Salas be called up to the bigs this season?

Dan Szymborski: Made and De Vries no

Dan Szymborski: Salas…maybe

Dan Szymborski: He was just promoted if he, say, tears up AAA pitching for a month, I think you coudl see him at the end of the year

Phillip Denny: Mookie is slowly but surely creeping down the batting order, hitting 6th last night. He’s still got something like 6/170 left on that deal after this year. When does ZIPS think the contract will be underwater?

Swings Low: Pick one team, who’s Skubal pitching for next year?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s go crazy: Rangers

Dan Szymborski: (I’m firing up ZiPS)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually think he’s tipped into underwater territory now

Dan Szymborski: I’d take Lindor

Phillip Denny: follow up, would you rather have 5/160 for Lindor, 6/170 for Mookie, or 8/270 for Tatis?

Dan Szymborski: (in this q)

Robert: Hi Dan. Does ZIPS under value Luis Lara the next 3 years?  To me, there is a disconnect in Luis Lara ZIPS 2026 ROS, 2027 and 2028. Looks like, to me, that Lara is significantly under valued by ZIPS across the board. Lare looks like a .280 BA, 15. % walk rate,  lead potential and 30 SBs. Thank you.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s underselling him a bit

bndj88: Has it already been studied one way or another if a version of Pythagorean Record based on run differential excluding position players pitching and/or excluding periods where the game is out of hand (say 9+ run lead after the 5th for example) would be more accurate?

Dan Szymborski: Not that I can recall off the top of my head

Dan Szymborski: My gut is that the specific situations would get swamped in the rest of the data

dan999999: I saw a Banana League game the other day and while I don’t want MLB to become like banana ball their way of doing walks would be fantastic for fixing the balance of strike outs and hits and push teams towards more athletic exciting players. I can’t think of a reason besides tradition (and I’ll admit that is a good reason) not to do so. Basically ball 4 means all runners can advance until the defending team throws the ball to all the defenders. The outfielders sprint in. The base runners go wild. 3 ball counts yield more hits because the outfielders have to play in. More expensive walks make the pitchers care more about control when they fall behind should mean less strikeouts and injuries.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t given much though to the practicality of some Banana rules in MLB, but I do think that MLB should be more aggressive and wacky and at least TRY really crazy things in the minors and in spring training games

drplantwrench: is Neto for Franklin Arias a fair deal?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not crazy, but I rather have the Arias side of the trade

Dan Szymborski: (as in getting Arias)

Swings Low: How many runs per game would you project an elite defense (Cubs) to save vs an atrocious D (Mariners) with an average pitching staff (Braves)

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to do any better than a run a game in defense from best to worst

Dan Szymborski: and even a run is hard

dan999999: Pitchers go on the IL if the hit batter goes on the IL

Coop: I can’t quite grasp the interest in I. Seymour of the Rays – I hear about him as a sleeper-type commodity but don’t see it in the numbers. What am I missing?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I like him, but I think he’s just rated now.

ajake57: Who do you (and/or ZiPS) going forward, Rutschman or Moreno? ZiPS leaned heavily toward Rutschman before the season but I feel like that may have flipped by now.

Dan Szymborski: I’m close on them, ZiPS likes Moreno rest-of-career more

Phillip Denny: I know word in Dodger land is Lauer and Call are being shopped. I would like to propose adding Teoscar Hernandez in there too. We know the market for RH outfielders is red hot and the Dodgers have to open up SOME type of OF spot given CF/RF/DH are locked up long term.

Dan Szymborski: I would too

shoewizard: Seems like day to day the Diamondbacks deadline priorities are in flux. If they can only address one thing, what does ZiPS tell us about their greatest need going forward from among LHB (1b/DH?),  Starting Pitching, or Bullpen Depth

Dan Szymborski: 1B and SP

GInfinity: Would you say the Trade Deadline is less dramatic since the expansion of the playoffs, because more teams are holding out hope for a wild cart spot? If so, would moving next year’s date earlier make it more exciting – is that even a reasonable goal?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though I haven’t confirmed it

Big Fan: I ask this from time to time, but a trade simulation tool like on Baseball Trade Values would be a fun feature for members to have.  I think you have all the puzzle pieces to do it already, so pretty please give us yet another fun thing to do on the site.

Dan Szymborski: There have been mixed feelings in the past about doing that kind of thing

Dan Szymborski: I’m thinking of building it in ZiPS during the lockout

Ropeia: Wil Austin Riley ever hit again and should Atlanta consider him as part of their future? Is he a change of scenery guy next year or this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve grown quite bearish about Riley

Dan Szymborski: The contract wasn’t crazy at the time, but it’s not working out

war2d2: I agree Skubal does the most good for the Cubs, I do doubt that Jed has it in him to pull the trigger. On the topic of nutty mock trades, if the Cubs offered the Sawx Shaw for Chapman and Gray and eat all the money, who says no? (I realize this isn’t in the realm of possible, but it’s in my brain and I had to let it out)

Dan Szymborski: I think the Red Sox say no

Big Fan: Re: a trade simulation tool, we know it’s a blunt and incorrect way to look at it, but also, give the people what they want!  How about a poll to see if there’s broader interest?

Dan Szymborski: Since I’ve advocated for it, just doing that would be a Big Dick move on my part, I think, so I shoudln’t be the one to do it!

Dan Szymborski: Believe it or not, I’m not actually bad to work with (I don’t think)

Herbert Trimboli: Orange 1B safety bag like softball good idea?

Dan Szymborski: Nah

Robert: Luis lara follow up. Quick answer to why ZIPS under sells Luis Lara? Helps me better understand ZIPS. Thank you again.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s anything systemic. I just like Lara mroe than ZiPS does

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, since I have a piece to finish, it’s time to head out for another week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!