Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/20

Dan Szymborski: Greetings all! So begins another Chatxperience!

Matt: In your opinion, who is the best person currently playing in mlb? Not the best player, the best person.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t feel comfortable making those kinds of evaluations. I’m very qualified to evaluate players at playing baseball. I have no such qualifications at determing quality of a person.

Dan Szymborski: When we do the chapter BBWAA awards for the local team (Reds in my case), I always abstain from the Good Guy award.

Szan Dymborski: Szmbob! Why do I still think this season is not going to happen?

Dan Szymborski: Well, there’s a raging epidemic going on, so no matter how great a job MLB does, there’s always significant risk.

Dan Szymborski: And let’s just say…I don’t think MLB’s done a great job by any stretch of the imagination.

Quincy: Thoughts on josh Rojas and 3 favorite pizza joints in the gem city

Dan Szymborski: He’s better than his 2020 stats, though I think he’d be stretched as a regular. I think he’ll be a Brock Holt! type of handy versatile role player who can fill-in as a regular without being too embarassing.

Chris: So what I get is that a sandwich can’t have a hinge. But what about a pb&j on a single piece of toast that is folded but maintains a hinge?

Dan Szymborski: You’re eating a PB&J sub.

Dbo: How was your 4th Dan? Did you enjoy some hot dog sandwiches?

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t have any hot dogs. Had burger with cheese in the middle!

Quincy: Seems to be a lost of love for the Ross striplings of the world. I.e. those who can get b

Quincy: vulture wins and not hurt you in ratios. Etc. Who are the targets you would recommend in a nl only League thanks

Dan Szymborski: This is a tricky one this year because usage may be significantly different with weird double offseason and deeper rosters.

Dan Szymborski: I think your best target is whoever ends up as the designated long reliever/mopup guy as I think players will be used more aggressively in that kind of role this year

Dbo: I don’t understand how you consider a jibarito a sandwich when it uses plantains instead of bread, it’s closer to a fruit salad than a sandwich

Dan Szymborski: The pressure is going in the same directions.

Sand Sandwich: Rank these salads for a sandwich: Chicken, Egg, Tuna.  Ill hang up and listen to your response.

Dan Szymborski: Egg.

Dan Szymborski: Egg salad is the only one of the mayonnaise salad genre I like.

jpmags: Any updates or thoughts on Kingery and Kela?  Starlin Castro or Kingery in 10T 6×6 OPS?

Dan Szymborski: I’d take Kingery over Castro. In this format, the likely BA advantage is minimized

LFC MIKE: Could you wait a minute Dan.. I am actually making a grilled cheese sandwich and the bread has to be that perfect golden brown with a crispy finish. Toad in the Hole is SO 2 weeks ago.

Dan Szymborski: YOu can make a toad in the hole grilled cheese!

Dan Szymborski: https://www.foodnetwork.com/recipes/food-network-kitchen/grilled-chees…

Rubber Shoes: Do we see Puig this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Brad: This isn’t a complaint, any baseball is still baseball, but assuming there is a season to what degree do you think the caliber of play will be below what we’re used to? Somewhere midway between AAA and normal MLB?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’ll be *that* severe.

Dan Szymborski: Unless a lot more players opt-out

jpmags: Does Fangraphs’s 2020 Projections factor in the new MLB alignment and scheduled?

Dan Szymborski: That I don’t know. The next ZiPS standings run will have the schedule.

Dan Szymborski: The alignment is in the projections I know though

Average Baseball Fan: Where can I go to find the anger and righteous indignation towards the Astros I had 4 months ago? I seemed to have misplaced it during the pandemic.

Dan Szymborski: You have to find it in your heart.

Dan Szymborski: A couple neural net shenanigans

Dan Szymborski: 2020 Team Mottos

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: 2020 Player Nicknames

Dan Szymborski:

Aceman: Is schedule or roster construction a bigger advantage this season?

Dan Szymborski: Sched, I think

brad: Dan, what are your updated odds that we finish this season on the field and not simulated on OOTP?

Dan Szymborski: I think we’re still over 50/50 to the good. COVID-19 of course sucks in a billion ways, but I think the question is if players are worse off in MLB than they would be otherwise.

Dan Szymborski: These are 20-40 year old dudes and they’re going to be out doign other stuff in most cases without baseball, not cloistering themselves in a bunker like Julian of Norwich

Enter Name Here: How do you think teams will manage starting pitcher workloads in 2021 after they max out at <100 IP in 2020?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll ramp up as the season goes on

Chris: If Barry bonds came out of retirement go dh for an nl team would he A) be the best nl dh B) be above average C) be below average but we wouldn’t notice D) he’d be the worst dh/player on the league

Dan Szymborski: I think he’d be below average by a large amount at this point

B: Did you go to school at Towson (State) University?  If so, when?

Dan Szymborski: No, I went to Loyola. A ton of my friends went to Towson

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, how is life?

Dan Szymborski: Decent-plus

Aceman: Sorry Dan believe I asked you same question before,just trying to get everyone’s opinion

Chris: Over/under 0.5 trades prior to opening day?

Bozo: Who will have the better career – Keston hiuria or Ozzie albies?

Dan Szymborski: There’ll be some trade!

Dan Szymborski: Albies.

Dan Szymborski: I love Hiura, but Albies is already an awesome player right now, so less projection.

Soxtober2020: Power rank your favorite BG builds, in terms of enjoyment to play. Obviously infinite Pirate is #1.

Dan Szymborski: Ah, you saw the graphic? I really enjoy getting a gold Hogger and a vanilla one so that Pirates are free.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say Pirates are the most fun build overall though. One problem is they’re very coin-flippy. Late Pirate build results are heavily influenced by whether you go first or not.

Dan Szymborski: Because of Seabreaker Goliath, which most good pirate builds will end up having.

Dan Szymborski: I like Beast builds the best as there are a few ways you can go, such as just having the single deathrattle wolf to go with baron rivendare and macaw or a token generating mama bear build

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of murloc builds because you always play them the same: survive early rounds, rush to five, fish for Brann.

Chris: Why isn’t major league baseball televising every inter squad game? Also are intersquad games more interesting than split squad matchups against rival teams?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if there’s enough interest

Philip: Which zips team projection (when adjusting for schedule) are you doubting the most? In either direction.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the O’s even have the 1 point whatever shot at making the playoffs that ZIPS give ’em in 60

Billy Beane: Dan, what is your worst opinion?

Dan Szymborski: Probably politics, no doubt.

tacopocket: Oh…hey Dan.  Why do they call smaller candy bars “fun size”.  Smaller candy isn’t fun.   I think a foot long milky way is much more fun.  oh also – i hate this schedule…..Mets have to play the 2 toughest divisions???  I know they all do but I don’t care about the other teams

Dan Szymborski: It’s fun for the manufacturer. More profit per pound of candy!

Isolated Thinker: Will we see a lot of players/coaches/managers and broadcasters yelling back and forth to each other?  I can see Keith Hernandez screaming down advice.  “Your outfield is too deep!”  “C’mon guys, gotta hit the cutoff man!”

Dan Szymborski: You might, though remember, remote away broadcasts

Dave: Do you think Alex Reyes will ever be an impact player for the Cards?

Dan Szymborski: I still think there’s a shot

Lorenzo: Can a stuffed slice of pizza count as a sandwich?  Dough on top, dough on bottom, meat, cheese, and sauce in between.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Chris: Can we agree that Larry Scott needs to be fired as PAC 12 commissioner?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know enough.

I Have to Know: If I take  piece of rye bread place a piece of wheat bread over it and place another piece of rye bread over it…will I have a bread sandwich?…..or a pathetic  empty life?

Dan Szymborski: both

Birds: Will there be a schedule specific 60 game ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: yup

hscer: Do you have an opinion on Potbelly marketing itself as a “Sandwich Shop”?

Dan Szymborski: You can brand yourself anything you want

Dan Szymborski: I can call myself Dan Szymborski, Commissioner of Sexy if I want to

Peter: Is Kyle Tucker really going to be a back up this season?

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=13811

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll get more in later of the year

LFC Mike: Toad in the Hole Grilled Cheese!…My summer is complete…

tacopocket: Maybe an article idea? highlighting who will be the long relief/mop up guy for all the teams (and when it isn’t known – some good speculations)?

Dbo: So is a lettuce wrap with two pieces of lettuce a sandwich because of the pressure going in the same direction?

Dan Szymborski: as long as there’s no hinge

Dbo: LFC Mike, do you use butter or margarine for your grilled cheese?

Dan Szymborski: if it’s margarine I may hae to ban him

Billy Beane: You had a Juicy Lucy? What kind of cheese did you use/have?

Erik: Why do you think 16″ softball never caught on outside of Chicago (maybe Portland), seems perfect for parks tight on space in cities. Even seems to be dying out in Chicago a bit too

Dan Szymborski: pimento cheese

Dan Szymborski: Dunno.

Jon: Proposal: 80 game season then start international play, like soccer.

LFC Mike: My 2 favorite minor league pitchers to track this year were going to be McKenzie Gore and Sixto Sanchez. Do either franchises put them in the show for a 60 game development experiment or ?? . Are organized practices or extended spring  training an option in a “Need to be Covid tested world”? These guys just cant sit a full year can they?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure even teams know exactly what they’re going to do.

Dan Szymborski: This year is just so weird.

Dan Szymborski: That’s the problem with 2020, it’s not just awful, but awful in a WEIRD way

Dbo: raise your hand if you have the highest contract in all of sports. Now put your hand down Mike Trout

Jon: Who has the biggest advantage in a shortened season? Playoff teams that had pitchers with heavy workloads in 2019? Teams that are top heavy?

Dan Szymborski: I think teams with depth get a bonus

LFC Mike: Over the history of your projections  has there been a player that stands out that you consistently were spot on correct about or was there one frustrating player you could never get your projections close to his numbers.

Dan Szymborski: Luckily, the bias is easier to deal with than the accuracy

Dan Szymborski: I used to have issues with always getting Kevin Gryboski wrong

Guest: Are you surprised that MLBTV readily refunded a prorated subscription? I just assumed they would keep my money, so I’m pleasantly surprised to have received $50 back.

Dan Szymborski: They probably figured they’d end up dealing with chargebacks anyway

LFC Mike: Butter is better

Dbo: Merkts cheddar is a poor excuse for cheese

Chris: What color uniform should a new expansion team have?

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see more green in baseball

Dan Szymborski: it’s shocking how little green there is

Jon: For your Zips time warp articles, is there a way that you can work backwards to see what Ichiro’s stats would have been if he started his career in MLB at age 21 or 22 instead of when he actually debuted? I don’t know if this is even possible, but I think it would be interesting.

Dan Szymborski: I did Ichiro a long time ago with NPB translations. He’s one I might revisit

Rob: Matt Kemp at Coors? In a 14-team mixed seems worth a flier, no?

Dan Szymborski: Even 14-team too deep. It’s not like he’s going to play all that much even if he makes the team

Dan Szymborski: Well, if they’re smart.

Dan Szymborski: Oops.

SB: Green and Purple colors would look great if done right

Dan Szymborski: not simultaneously I hope

LFC Mike: I grew up in the south.. we put butter on our butter..  just to make it even better.

Guest: FanGraphs depth charts in projecting Jose Iglesias to be the best position player on the Orioles this year. What words of encouragement do you have for Orioles fans?

Dan Szymborski: SCREAM IN YOUR HEART

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: There’s no i in Jucy Lucy.

Butter Makers Inc.: Margarine for a grilled cheese? Why don’t you just put beans in chili then and kill off your tasteless palette.

Guest: Do you watch any pro soccer? If so, do you know of any good sabermetric sites?

Dan Szymborski: Not really my thing

Eel Ffilc: The Dodgers have their intersquad game on twitter, not sure if others are doing the same.

Chris: Larry Scott is the worst, what else do you need to know?

Dan Szymborski: Well, if he’s the worst! I Just don’t know

Moose_Bolton: Do you have an opinion on frozen pizza? I’ve eaten so much more of it in the last few months and it’s much much better than I remember it being as as a kid.

Dan Szymborski: I find frozen pizza pretty awful because it tries to emulate good pizza. You can just get good pizza.

Dan Szymborski: I think frozen pizza that does something different works better, like Stouffer’s French Bread pizza.

Guest: Would Sixto Sanchez be in the Marlins’ if service time considerations didn’t exist?

LFC Mike: footballxg.com   optasports.com  for soccer

Dan Szymborski: I think Sixto would.

Guest: If a team had a number 5&6 starters with essentially equal talent levels and options, would it make sense to rotate their 26 man roster spot between them and an extra reliever. #5 starts day 1, sent down for extra reliever day 2-5, sent down for #6 starter day 6, sent down for extra reliever days 7-10, sent down for #5 day 11, etc. Obviously there are service time considerations that unfortunately owners would love. I’m assuming that pitchers only need to be optioned for 10 days this year before coming back similar to only needing 10 days on the IL in 2020.

Dan Szymborski: A lot to digest, I hae to think of this

Peter: Thoughts on Evan White as a back up/depth/flyer for 2020?

Dan Szymborski: I’m higher on him than ZiPS, but not completely on board yet

Blake Snell: With having elbow surgery to remove loose bodies last year, then having a cortisone shot in my elbow in spring training, am I destined for Tommy John?

Dan Szymborski: I think every players veers towards Tommy John

Philip: Do pen guys become more valuable and depth starters become less valuable in a 60 game season?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, but I am not positive about it

Guest: How was your birthday?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty good! Though I turned 42, which kinda sucks

Guest: How about Cheers this week?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing this week, I’ll do next week.

Appa Yip Yip: Re: tuna salad – olive oil and Dijon mustard provides the necessary lubrication for the tuna while simultaneously adding far more flavour

Nomahhhhh: The last third of ZiPS Nomars career has no seasons with 500+ PA. Makes me think even in the projections there was plenty of room for him to get 3k hits in our beautiful, Dan world

Guest: Are you anti-onion in chili?

Dan Szymborski: Not vehemently.

Estevao: Betts offensive production hasn’t been linear throughout his career. What Zips has in store for him?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure I’m following the question

Tom: Why is there so much talk about Gore in SD…have people given up on Quantrill as a starter?  He was a good prospect that has performed well.

Dan Szymborski: Gore has such high upside

Eel Ffilc: In 1971, four Orioles’ starters had at least 20 wins. What are the chances four Orioles’ starters this year combine for 20 wins?

Dan Szymborski: OUch

Dan Szymborski: Fairly low! lol

Guest: Do you watch AEW? Im liking it a lot and allows me to engage in wrestling without supporting Vince.

Dan Szymborski: I do, it’s a lot of fun!

BASEBALL SZN: All this food talk … what’s for lunch?

Dbo: Ban the guy who puts olive oil and mustard on tuna, it’s mayo and relish

Gabe: Are you buying Logan Webb as the Giants 5th starter?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not buying many Giants starters…

Dbo: I guess everyone else left the chat, make me a movie script Dan!

Dan Szymborski: lol, sorry, my internet’s weird

Kvn: Free Kyle Tucker

Dbo: Combine Field of Dreams and Independence Day so a bunch of dead baseball players return to fight aliens

twhite8148: This is my first chat as an actual member!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for supporting us! It’s greatly appreciated.

FalmerBloodElixir: Who pitches more innings for the Padres this year – Gore, Patino or…Jose Castillo?

Dan Szymborski: I think Gore will

Dan Szymborski: Without a minor league season, I think the Padres will really want to get as many real innings froM Gore as they can

Don: Do you think Tony Gonsolin will stay in a long relief role in LAD or do you think they give him a chance to be a starter?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be kinda swingy this year. The Dodgers aren’t shallow.

Estevao: If you had to pick one person to run your franchise, who would it be? It’s be the same regardless of your budget?

Dan Szymborski: Andrew Friedman

twhite8148: Oh yeah, an actual question: Which 2019 middle infielder breakout feels most like a mirage: Ketel Marte, Jorge Polanco, Tommy Edman, or Marcus Semien?

Dan Szymborski: Edman to a degree, but I like all of them. Only down because of the other names

Estevao: Me too

Estevao: Do you think if there was no pressure to go for the wildcard Zaidi would have opted for a different approach last season and what would that be a better option long term

Dan Szymborski: I suspect, but I am not positive, that he’d be more into retooling than most of the rest of the organization.

Dunning-Kruger on the right: If you were building a team with the player pool of all players ever to play the game.  Do you take Willie Mays or Mike Trout?

Dan Szymborski: Trout. Mays is well off his peak at this point.

Joel: Does Puig find a team in 2020?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so. If Puig goes unsigned with the NL adding a whole new lineup spot, all the owners should line up for beatings

Estevao: I apologise for the grammatical mistakes. My phone is failing me

Dan Szymborski: Have you seen my typing?

Dan Szymborski: Without an editor, I’m barely coherent.

Estevao: Betts wRC+ the last four years: 136, 107, 185, 135. Do you think those two in the middle were outliars and he will hover around 140 from now on. What’s the projection long term on Zips?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a 130-140 guys long-term

Sonny: I feel weird about being excited about baseball. Not sure what to do about that

Sam: I agree on olive oil and mustard in tuna being ban-worthy. No relish, just celery and onion

Dan Szymborski: Only ketchup on tuna is ban-worthy

Lark: Any sense of what Detmers would do if he got a rotation spot somehow?

Dan Szymborski: He’d hold up well, but that’s pretty unlikely!

Dan Szymborski: Relatively well, that is

Dan Szymborski: He’s one of the more MLB-ready arms in the draft, after all

Dan Szymborski: But I expect that he’d only get a little cup of coffee, even in a year like ethis

Guest: Do you think Jordan Hicks going to be a contributor in a net save and holds league? How much time do you think he will miss?

Dan Szymborski: I love Hicks, but given the risks and the short time frame, I’m not sure I’d want him on a fantasy roster unless it was incredibly deep and I could afford to just stash him

LFC Mike: Speaking of Marlin pitchers  or ex Marlin pitchers Dan….your projection for who wins the Jazz Chisholm vs. Zac Gallen trade. I lean heavily to Gallen.

Dan Szymborski: I think Gallen was a great pickup

Dan Szymborski: So the snakes

Dan Szymborski: Though Jazz Chisholm is fascinating and has a 75-80 name

Appa Yip Yip: Relish is the worst of all condiments just dump some sugar on it if you’re going to ruin your food

Curious: Why do people here accept your authority as arbiter of sandwichery? No disrespect to you or them, but a sandwich should be like pornography- you know it when you see it, and your tastes and opinions should apply to you and only you.

Dan Szymborski: GO EAT A HOT DOG, JUDGE POTTER

Guest: Most players don’t do particularly well after taking a whole year off of baseball, but usually injury is at least 1 factor in the year off. Will it be difficult to project players next year who were healthy this year, but chose not to play?

Dan Szymborski: Probably. There does appear to be a layoff penalty, but again, EVERYONE is mostly laying off a year

AJ: Is Eddie Rosario the most underrated MLB Star or is he just a flash in the pan player?

Dan Szymborski: I think his plate discipline gives him a giant downside

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to end chat for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone and I’ll see y’all next time.

Dan Szymborski: Is Baltimore south enough I can say y’all? We’ll debate that next time.

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD I DIDNT ACTUALLY END THE CHAT

Mike Hawk: The Orioles finally added Mountcastle to their 60 list.  At this point, the can’t trot out Davis with a straight face to their fanbase.  He’s a laugher!

Dan Szymborski: I can’t believe Davis wasn’t cut after getting in a fight with mr. Hyde