Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/20

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Greetings all! So begins another Chatxperience!

12:02
Matt: In your opinion, who is the best person currently playing in mlb? Not the best player, the best person.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t feel comfortable making those kinds of evaluations. I’m very qualified to evaluate players at playing baseball. I have no such qualifications at determing quality of a person.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When we do the chapter BBWAA awards for the local team (Reds in my case), I always abstain from the Good Guy award.

12:04
Szan Dymborski: Szmbob! Why do I still think this season is not going to happen?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, there’s a raging epidemic going on, so no matter how great a job MLB does, there’s always significant risk.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And let’s just say…I don’t think MLB’s done a great job by any stretch of the imagination.

12:04
Quincy: Thoughts on josh Rojas and 3 favorite pizza joints in the gem city

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s better than his 2020 stats, though I think he’d be stretched as a regular. I think he’ll be a Brock Holt! type of handy versatile role player who can fill-in as a regular without being too embarassing.

12:05
Chris: So what I get is that a sandwich can’t have a hinge. But what about a pb&j on a single piece of toast that is folded but maintains a hinge?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re eating a PB&J sub.

12:05
Dbo: How was your 4th Dan? Did you enjoy some hot dog sandwiches?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Didn’t have any hot dogs. Had burger with cheese in the middle!

12:06
Quincy: Seems to be a lost of love for the Ross striplings of the world. I.e. those who can get b

12:06
Quincy: vulture wins and not hurt you in ratios. Etc. Who are the targets you would recommend in a nl only League thanks

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: This is a tricky one this year because usage may be significantly different with weird double offseason and deeper rosters.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think your best target is whoever ends up as the designated long reliever/mopup guy as I think players will be used more aggressively in that kind of role this year

12:07
Dbo: I don’t understand how you consider a jibarito a sandwich when it uses plantains instead of bread, it’s closer to a fruit salad than a sandwich

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The pressure is going in the same directions.

12:07
Sand Sandwich: Rank these salads for a sandwich: Chicken, Egg, Tuna.  Ill hang up and listen to your response.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Egg.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Egg salad is the only one of the mayonnaise salad genre I like.

12:08
jpmags: Any updates or thoughts on Kingery and Kela?  Starlin Castro or Kingery in 10T 6×6 OPS?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d take Kingery over Castro. In this format, the likely BA advantage is minimized

12:10
LFC MIKE: Could you wait a minute Dan.. I am actually making a grilled cheese sandwich and the bread has to be that perfect golden brown with a crispy finish. Toad in the Hole is SO 2 weeks ago.

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOu can make a toad in the hole grilled cheese!

12:11
Rubber Shoes: Do we see Puig this year?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:11
Brad: This isn’t a complaint, any baseball is still baseball, but assuming there is a season to what degree do you think the caliber of play will be below what we’re used to? Somewhere midway between AAA and normal MLB?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’ll be *that* severe.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless a lot more players opt-out

12:11
jpmags: Does Fangraphs’s 2020 Projections factor in the new MLB alignment and scheduled?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That I don’t know. The next ZiPS standings run will have the schedule.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The alignment is in the projections I know though

12:12
Average Baseball Fan: Where can I go to find the anger and righteous indignation towards the Astros I had 4 months ago? I seemed to have misplaced it during the pandemic.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You have to find it in your heart.

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A couple neural net shenanigans

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2020 Team Mottos

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2020 Player Nicknames

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:14
Aceman: Is schedule or roster construction a bigger advantage this season?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sched, I think

12:14
brad: Dan, what are your updated odds that we finish this season on the field and not simulated on OOTP?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think we’re still over 50/50 to the good. COVID-19 of course sucks in a billion ways, but I think the question is if players are worse off in MLB than they would be otherwise.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: These are 20-40 year old dudes and they’re going to be out doign other stuff in most cases without baseball, not cloistering themselves in a bunker like Julian of Norwich

12:16
Enter Name Here: How do you think teams will manage starting pitcher workloads in 2021 after they max out at <100 IP in 2020?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll ramp up as the season goes on

12:16
Chris: If Barry bonds came out of retirement go dh for an nl team would he A) be the best nl dh B) be above average C) be below average but we wouldn’t notice D) he’d be the worst dh/player on the league

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’d be below average by a large amount at this point

12:16
B: Did you go to school at Towson (State) University?  If so, when?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I went to Loyola. A ton of my friends went to Towson

12:16
Billy Beane: Hey Dan, how is life?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Decent-plus

12:16
Aceman: Sorry Dan believe I asked you same question before,just trying to get everyone’s opinion

12:17
Chris: Over/under 0.5 trades prior to opening day?

12:17
Bozo: Who will have the better career – Keston hiuria or Ozzie albies?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’ll be some trade!

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Albies.

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love Hiura, but Albies is already an awesome player right now, so less projection.

12:17
Soxtober2020: Power rank your favorite BG builds, in terms of enjoyment to play. Obviously infinite Pirate is #1.

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ah, you saw the graphic? I really enjoy getting a gold Hogger and a vanilla one so that Pirates are free.

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say Pirates are the most fun build overall though. One problem is they’re very coin-flippy. Late Pirate build results are heavily influenced by whether you go first or not.

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because of Seabreaker Goliath, which most good pirate builds will end up having.

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like Beast builds the best as there are a few ways you can go, such as just having the single deathrattle wolf to go with baron rivendare and macaw or a token generating mama bear build

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of murloc builds because you always play them the same: survive early rounds, rush to five, fish for Brann.

12:20
Chris: Why isn’t major league baseball televising every inter squad game? Also are intersquad games more interesting than split squad matchups against rival teams?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not sure if there’s enough interest

12:20
Philip: Which zips team projection (when adjusting for schedule) are you doubting the most? In either direction.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the O’s even have the 1 point whatever shot at making the playoffs that ZIPS give ’em in 60

12:21
Billy Beane: Dan, what is your worst opinion?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably politics, no doubt.

12:21
tacopocket: Oh…hey Dan.  Why do they call smaller candy bars “fun size”.  Smaller candy isn’t fun.   I think a foot long milky way is much more fun.  oh also – i hate this schedule…..Mets have to play the 2 toughest divisions???  I know they all do but I don’t care about the other teams

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s fun for the manufacturer. More profit per pound of candy!

12:21
Isolated Thinker: Will we see a lot of players/coaches/managers and broadcasters yelling back and forth to each other?  I can see Keith Hernandez screaming down advice.  “Your outfield is too deep!”  “C’mon guys, gotta hit the cutoff man!”

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You might, though remember, remote away broadcasts

12:22
Dave: Do you think Alex Reyes will ever be an impact player for the Cards?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I still think there’s a shot

12:23
Lorenzo: Can a stuffed slice of pizza count as a sandwich?  Dough on top, dough on bottom, meat, cheese, and sauce in between.

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:23
Chris: Can we agree that Larry Scott needs to be fired as PAC 12 commissioner?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know enough.

12:23
I Have to Know: If I take  piece of rye bread place a piece of wheat bread over it and place another piece of rye bread over it…will I have a bread sandwich?…..or a pathetic  empty life?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: both

12:23
Birds: Will there be a schedule specific 60 game ZIPS?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: yup

12:23
hscer: Do you have an opinion on Potbelly marketing itself as a “Sandwich Shop”?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can brand yourself anything you want

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can call myself Dan Szymborski, Commissioner of Sexy if I want to

12:24
Peter: Is Kyle Tucker really going to be a back up this season?

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=13811

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll get more in later of the year

12:24
LFC Mike: Toad in the Hole Grilled Cheese!…My summer is complete…

12:24
tacopocket: Maybe an article idea? highlighting who will be the long relief/mop up guy for all the teams (and when it isn’t known – some good speculations)?

12:25
Dbo: So is a lettuce wrap with two pieces of lettuce a sandwich because of the pressure going in the same direction?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: as long as there’s no hinge

12:25
Dbo: LFC Mike, do you use butter or margarine for your grilled cheese?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: if it’s margarine I may hae to ban him

12:25
Billy Beane: You had a Juicy Lucy? What kind of cheese did you use/have?

12:25
Erik: Why do you think 16″ softball never caught on outside of Chicago (maybe Portland), seems perfect for parks tight on space in cities. Even seems to be dying out in Chicago a bit too

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: pimento cheese

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dunno.

12:25
Jon: Proposal: 80 game season then start international play, like soccer.

12:26
LFC Mike: My 2 favorite minor league pitchers to track this year were going to be McKenzie Gore and Sixto Sanchez. Do either franchises put them in the show for a 60 game development experiment or ?? . Are organized practices or extended spring  training an option in a “Need to be Covid tested world”? These guys just cant sit a full year can they?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure even teams know exactly what they’re going to do.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: This year is just so weird.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s the problem with 2020, it’s not just awful, but awful in a WEIRD way

12:26
Dbo: raise your hand if you have the highest contract in all of sports. Now put your hand down Mike Trout

12:26
Jon: Who has the biggest advantage in a shortened season? Playoff teams that had pitchers with heavy workloads in 2019? Teams that are top heavy?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think teams with depth get a bonus

12:27
LFC Mike: Over the history of your projections  has there been a player that stands out that you consistently were spot on correct about or was there one frustrating player you could never get your projections close to his numbers.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Luckily, the bias is easier to deal with than the accuracy

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used to have issues with always getting Kevin Gryboski wrong

12:27
Guest: Are you surprised that MLBTV readily refunded a prorated subscription? I just assumed they would keep my money, so I’m pleasantly surprised to have received $50 back.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They probably figured they’d end up dealing with chargebacks anyway

12:28
LFC Mike: Butter is better

12:28
Dbo: Merkts cheddar is a poor excuse for cheese

12:28
Chris: What color uniform should a new expansion team have?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see more green in baseball

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’s shocking how little green there is

12:29
Jon: For your Zips time warp articles, is there a way that you can work backwards to see what Ichiro’s stats would have been if he started his career in MLB at age 21 or 22 instead of when he actually debuted? I don’t know if this is even possible, but I think it would be interesting.

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did Ichiro a long time ago with NPB translations. He’s one I might revisit

12:29
Rob: Matt Kemp at Coors? In a 14-team mixed seems worth a flier, no?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even 14-team too deep. It’s not like he’s going to play all that much even if he makes the team

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, if they’re smart.

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oops.

12:30
SB: Green and Purple colors would look great if done right

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: not simultaneously I hope

12:30
LFC Mike: I grew up in the south.. we put butter on our butter..  just to make it even better.

12:31
Guest: FanGraphs depth charts in projecting Jose Iglesias to be the best position player on the Orioles this year. What words of encouragement do you have for Orioles fans?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SCREAM IN YOUR HEART

12:31
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: There’s no i in Jucy Lucy.

12:32
Butter Makers Inc.: Margarine for a grilled cheese? Why don’t you just put beans in chili then and kill off your tasteless palette.

12:32
Guest: Do you watch any pro soccer? If so, do you know of any good sabermetric sites?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really my thing

12:32
Eel Ffilc: The Dodgers have their intersquad game on twitter, not sure if others are doing the same.

12:33
Chris: Larry Scott is the worst, what else do you need to know?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, if he’s the worst! I Just don’t know

12:33
Moose_Bolton: Do you have an opinion on frozen pizza? I’ve eaten so much more of it in the last few months and it’s much much better than I remember it being as as a kid.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I find frozen pizza pretty awful because it tries to emulate good pizza. You can just get good pizza.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think frozen pizza that does something different works better, like Stouffer’s French Bread pizza.

12:35
Guest: Would Sixto Sanchez be in the Marlins’ if service time considerations didn’t exist?

12:37
LFC Mike: footballxg.com   optasports.com  for soccer

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Sixto would.

12:37
Guest: If a team had a number 5&6 starters with essentially equal talent levels and options, would it make sense to rotate their 26 man roster spot between them and an extra reliever. #5 starts day 1, sent down for extra reliever day 2-5, sent down for #6 starter day 6, sent down for extra reliever days 7-10, sent down for #5 day 11, etc. Obviously there are service time considerations that unfortunately owners would love. I’m assuming that pitchers only need to be optioned for 10 days this year before coming back similar to only needing 10 days on the IL in 2020.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A lot to digest, I hae to think of this

12:39
Peter: Thoughts on Evan White as a back up/depth/flyer for 2020?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m higher on him than ZiPS, but not completely on board yet

12:41
Blake Snell: With having elbow surgery to remove loose bodies last year, then having a cortisone shot in my elbow in spring training, am I destined for Tommy John?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think every players veers towards Tommy John

12:41
Philip: Do pen guys become more valuable and depth starters become less valuable in a 60 game season?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so, but I am not positive about it

12:44
Guest: How was your birthday?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Pretty good! Though I turned 42, which kinda sucks

12:45
Guest: How about Cheers this week?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nothing this week, I’ll do next week.

12:45
Appa Yip Yip: Re: tuna salad – olive oil and Dijon mustard provides the necessary lubrication for the tuna while simultaneously adding far more flavour

12:45
Nomahhhhh: The last third of ZiPS Nomars career has no seasons with 500+ PA. Makes me think even in the projections there was plenty of room for him to get 3k hits in our beautiful, Dan world

12:47
Guest: Are you anti-onion in chili?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not vehemently.

12:47
Estevao: Betts offensive production hasn’t been linear throughout his career. What Zips has in store for him?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not sure I’m following the question

12:47
Tom: Why is there so much talk about Gore in SD…have people given up on Quantrill as a starter?  He was a good prospect that has performed well.

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gore has such high upside

12:49
Eel Ffilc: In 1971, four Orioles’ starters had at least 20 wins. What are the chances four Orioles’ starters this year combine for 20 wins?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OUch

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fairly low! lol

12:50
Guest: Do you watch AEW? Im liking it a lot and allows me to engage in wrestling without supporting Vince.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do, it’s a lot of fun!

12:52
BASEBALL SZN: All this food talk … what’s for lunch?

12:52
Dbo: Ban the guy who puts olive oil and mustard on tuna, it’s mayo and relish

12:54
Gabe: Are you buying Logan Webb as the Giants 5th starter?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not buying many Giants starters…

12:54
Dbo: I guess everyone else left the chat, make me a movie script Dan!

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: lol, sorry, my internet’s weird

12:56
Kvn: Free Kyle Tucker

12:56
Dbo: Combine Field of Dreams and Independence Day so a bunch of dead baseball players return to fight aliens

12:56
twhite8148: This is my first chat as an actual member!

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for supporting us! It’s greatly appreciated.

12:57
FalmerBloodElixir: Who pitches more innings for the Padres this year – Gore, Patino or…Jose Castillo?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Gore will

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Without a minor league season, I think the Padres will really want to get as many real innings froM Gore as they can

12:58
Don: Do you think Tony Gonsolin will stay in a long relief role in LAD or do you think they give him a chance to be a starter?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be kinda swingy this year. The Dodgers aren’t shallow.

12:58
Estevao: If you had to pick one person to run your franchise, who would it be? It’s be the same regardless of your budget?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Andrew Friedman

12:59
twhite8148: Oh yeah, an actual question: Which 2019 middle infielder breakout feels most like a mirage: Ketel Marte, Jorge Polanco, Tommy Edman, or Marcus Semien?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Edman to a degree, but I like all of them. Only down because of the other names

12:59
Estevao: Me too

12:59
Estevao: Do you think if there was no pressure to go for the wildcard Zaidi would have opted for a different approach last season and what would that be a better option long term

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect, but I am not positive, that he’d be more into retooling than most of the rest of the organization.

1:00
Dunning-Kruger on the right: If you were building a team with the player pool of all players ever to play the game.  Do you take Willie Mays or Mike Trout?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Trout. Mays is well off his peak at this point.

1:00
Joel: Does Puig find a team in 2020?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe so. If Puig goes unsigned with the NL adding a whole new lineup spot, all the owners should line up for beatings

1:00
Estevao: I apologise for the grammatical mistakes. My phone is failing me

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Have you seen my typing?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Without an editor, I’m barely coherent.

1:01
Estevao: Betts wRC+ the last four years: 136, 107, 185, 135. Do you think those two in the middle were outliars and he will hover around 140 from now on. What’s the projection long term on Zips?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a 130-140 guys long-term

1:01
Sonny: I feel weird about being excited about baseball. Not sure what to do about that

1:01
Sam: I agree on olive oil and mustard in tuna being ban-worthy. No relish, just celery and onion

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Only ketchup on tuna is ban-worthy

1:02
Lark: Any sense of what Detmers would do if he got a rotation spot somehow?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’d hold up well, but that’s pretty unlikely!

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Relatively well, that is

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s one of the more MLB-ready arms in the draft, after all

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I expect that he’d only get a little cup of coffee, even in a year like ethis

1:03
Guest: Do you think Jordan Hicks going to be a contributor in a net save and holds league? How much time do you think he will miss?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love Hicks, but given the risks and the short time frame, I’m not sure I’d want him on a fantasy roster unless it was incredibly deep and I could afford to just stash him

1:03
LFC Mike: Speaking of Marlin pitchers  or ex Marlin pitchers Dan….your projection for who wins the Jazz Chisholm vs. Zac Gallen trade. I lean heavily to Gallen.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Gallen was a great pickup

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So the snakes

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though Jazz Chisholm is fascinating and has a 75-80 name

1:04
Appa Yip Yip: Relish is the worst of all condiments just dump some sugar on it if you’re going to ruin your food

1:04
Curious: Why do people here accept your authority as arbiter of sandwichery? No disrespect to you or them, but a sandwich should be like pornography- you know it when you see it, and your tastes and opinions should apply to you and only you.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: GO EAT A HOT DOG, JUDGE POTTER

1:04
Guest: Most players don’t do particularly well after taking a whole year off of baseball, but usually injury is at least 1 factor in the year off. Will it be difficult to project players next year who were healthy this year, but chose not to play?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably. There does appear to be a layoff penalty, but again, EVERYONE is mostly laying off a year

1:05
AJ: Is Eddie Rosario the most underrated MLB Star or is he just a flash in the pan player?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think his plate discipline gives him a giant downside

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to end chat for another week!

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone and I’ll see y’all next time.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Is Baltimore south enough I can say y’all? We’ll debate that next time.

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OH GOD I DIDNT ACTUALLY END THE CHAT

1:16
Mike Hawk: The Orioles finally added Mountcastle to their 60 list.  At this point, the can’t trot out Davis with a straight face to their fanbase.  He’s a laugher!

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t believe Davis wasn’t cut after getting in a fight with mr. Hyde

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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gvanlue
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gvanlue

Potter Stewart downgraded from Justice to Judge. No respect.