Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/11/16

by
July 11, 2016
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Free of tiresome culture wars but not free of tiresome Dan Szymborski: The Dan© Szymborski© FanGraphs© Chat©.
12:00
Minty: Stolen bases can skewed in the low minors. Where do you think Moncada’s power/speed will end up in the majors?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, stolen bases do tend to go wacky in the low minors.
12:01
Dan Szymborski: I expect him to still be a good SB player in the majors, but more in the 25-35 range when he does reach the majors. The power is interesting he does have the build that he should develop more.
12:01
Dan: Since AJ Reed is struggling, could you see the Astros calling up Bregman to slide in at 1st?
12:01
Dan Szymborski: No

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Remember Springer’s first 10 games or so in the majors? The Astros don’t tend to panic.
12:03
Iheartprospects: What do you see Eloy Jiménez ceiling being?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Pretty high if his plate discipline shakes out a little better. He probably has even more power than he’s shown so far — low level minors have a lot of gigantic pitchers’ parks — but he’s still raw
12:05
Bill Heywood: Dave teased that for the first time, ZiPS 5 year projection liked someone better than Trout, but wouldn’t tell who it is. It’s gotta be Bartolo Colon, right? What does ZiPS say Bartolo Colon will look like in 5 years, and does it come with weight projections?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: That’s 5th-year projection, not the whole 5-year period, just to be clear.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: And I’ll spoil it. It’s Jose Vizcaino, obviously.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: SORRY DAVE
12:06
Dr. Met: Thanks for halting your pikachu hunt to chat with us!
12:06
Dan Szymborski: I’ve mostly been watching the whole thing rather th an contributing!
12:07
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got like two big projects going on and can’t be galavanting around fighting giant crabs in bars quite yet
12:07
Bill Heywood: THE PEOPLE DEMAND A BARTOLO COLON 5 YEAR WEIGHT PROJECTION, MAKE IT HAPPEN ZiPS!
12:07
Dude Bro: Hey Dan, which character do you think is most overpowered in Overwatch RIGHT NOW THIS VERY SECOND?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Lucio
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Err Lúcio
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Is that where the mark is?
12:07
Dan: From a sad Cubs fan, that Adam Warren ZiPS ain’t looking as great as it was pre-season! 🙁
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, recent events have not helped it
12:08
PL: Better than 50% chance that Marcus Semien ends up with 30+ HRs?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: If we’re talking over 50, I’d still take the under.
12:08
Josh Nelson: Let’s say there was a skills challenge during the All Star break. What challenges would you actually like to watch?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: Footrace! Arm strength. Maybe some kind of weird precision hitting thing
12:09
Kevin: How does ZiPS feel about Andrew Benintendi? Steamer projects a 103 wRC+ for him right now.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes him very much, but since Dave’s going to be talking about him (or has already) I dont’ want to spoil anything
12:09
Dude Bro: What do you see for Puig going forward? What does he need to fix at the plate to get back to ’13-’14 Puig, which was a very good version of Puig.
12:09
Dan Szymborski: No clue whatsoever
12:09
Zach: Which of these pitchers would you pick to have the best 2nd half bounce back: Liriano, Kazmir, Samardzija, Chen, Corbin?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Shark
12:10
Dan Szymborski: And again, saving the offtopic ones for the Lightningn Round
12:10
Ryan: In a dynasty keeper league who would you keep and who has the better upside long term between the both struggling Jason Heyward & Yasiel Puig?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Heyward’s safer, but Puig has more upside – a lot of Heyward’s value is always going to be tied up in defense, which is fairly irrelevant for fantasy.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: But Puig could also be out of baseball in two years
12:11
PL: How many HRs will the league leader have at the end of the year?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Let’s say 44.
12:12
jeffw: Do the Cubs’ recent struggles make them more likely to pursue upgrades? Still focused on relief or maybe a starter now?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Really depends on the opportunities available. Too-specific targeting is fraught with peril
12:12
Erik: How do 5-years ZiPS forecasts work? The same methodology as one year or different?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Similar to the one year
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Though more possibilities.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Since it’s a Cone of Ignorance
12:12
Pessimistic White Sox Fan: Are you aware of any research that has been done that ties number of games consecutively played versus run production/run prevention over time? A lot of speculation has been made that that poor play of the Cubs is tied to fatigue and no time off – I’m just curious how relevant that statement really is.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Not off-hand, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I missed something
12:13
ShakeYourTushyHasegawa: Shouldn’t Machado just stick at short at this point or do the O’s feel like playing him at 3rd will preserve him in the long term?..obviously he’s extremely valuable either way, but man, he’s great.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: He should be at short.
12:13
Jeff: Thoughts on Byron Buxton potentially putting it together for a big 2nd half?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I remain stubbornly optimistic about Buxton
12:13
Colin: Does Eduardo Rodriguez ever figure it out? And does figuring it out equate to more than a back end starter?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Think he’s still a 3/4 guy long term. There was a brief moment that he did get overhyped.
12:13
Danny: Do you think xOBA is a good signal for ROS projections for hitters and do you plan on incorporating statcast data in some fashion into ZiPS?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: I’ve found pbp data harder to incorporate on in-season. Statcast, there’s still a lot of work to do.
12:14
Erik: What are ZiPS’ biggest blind spots? Is it more accurate for some player profiles than others?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Not really – calibration is the easier part.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re talking about something like injured players
12:14
Dan Szymborski: But that’s not really a player profile
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re talking about Steve Ontiveros or something
12:15
Ryan: Do you see Contreras being the primary Catcher next year for the Cubs?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I suspect so.
12:15
Vinny the K: I need Margot for some SBs in an NL only league. Do you see him coming up before Renfroe to man CF for the Friars?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: No
12:15
Burts_beads: What are your thoughts on Aledmys Diaz going forward? Seems to make a lot of good contact, he’s for real, right?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Not going to say he’s real to *this* level, but he’s done enough that he’s at least “good” now.
12:15
mike sixel: How many fans will get hit in the stands, while staring at their phones, trying to find Pokeman? Quite the phenomena! Let’s say that now that Sano is at 3B, Kepler is in RF, and Berrios comes up….the Twins are close to .500 in the second half (a guy can dream), would you plan for next year based on the full year’s awful results, or the much better 2nd half results as being the true talent going into next year?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t plan based on either – it’s kind of a simplistic way of planning.
12:16
Bork: If the All-Stars were turned into vampires and had to fight which all-star would win?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Uh
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I think speed is important for a vampire, no? You don’t see big lumbering vampires
12:17
Dan Szymborski: So who’s the fastest All-Star? So JBJ or Marte?
12:17
Zorak: On behalf of all Mets fans, I’d just like to say, Brandon Phillips, I hate you.
12:17
Whats that Odor: Do you think Puig gets moved? What kind of return would LA be able to get for him?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Not at this stage. There’s no purpose to moving him.
12:18
phred g sanford: Have you seen lamont anywhere?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Gene Lamont? Still with the Tigers unless I missed some very low key news over the weekend
12:19
Greg: First big name to be traded this summer?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Lucroy
12:19
Maxamuz: Trumbo to win HRD
12:19
Totally not Omar Infante’s agent: Should we read anything into the Royals dropping from 1 game back to 7 games back of first after they DFAed Omar Infante?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: HE WAS THE HEART OF THE ROYALS AND YOU STATDOUCHES RIPPED IT OUT
12:20
Northsider: so many Cubs logos…
12:20
Nathan: Does Bartolo Colon win All-Star game MVP
12:20
Dan Szymborski: If t here’s any justice.
12:20
Stevil: The AL West has 3 teams with a snowball’s chance. Who has the biggest snowball?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Rangers. Possession is 9/10 of the divisional lead.
12:20
daneyko: Texas Rangers will trade Joey Gallo this season ? Too good for the AAA.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I do not believe so
12:20
Jack C.: Bregman has to be called up soon though, correct?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I think so
12:21
Slippy: First half MVPs?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Trout, Bryant
12:21
ShakeYourTushyHasegawa: C. Davis hit an oppo bomb this weekend and it looked like he exerted some effort. Where does he rank for you in easiest looking home run swings?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly up there
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Mickey Tettleton’s always looked most effortless
12:21
Dan Szymborski: And he was helped by that ridiculously indifferent-looking stance
12:22
Dan Szymborski: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr-JYf5aAZo
12:22
Dan Szymborski: Every pitch, Mickey looked like he was about to doze off and then some trigger went off in his head going WAKE UP ITS BASEBALL TIME BRAH
12:23
Avi: Is Josh Bell going to stay up or was this the taster before September?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I suspect that this is an amuse-bouche but the Pirates wouldn’t mind if he forced their hand.
12:23
Nate: Who has a better second half, Kyle Seager or Jake Lamb?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Seager
12:24
PL: Assuming Danny Valencia is moved at the deadline, will Ryon Healy’s good numbers in AA/AAA this year translate well as a replacement at 3B ROS?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: No, Valencia’s really hitting well
12:24
Sean P: Avi Garcia has an RC+ of 70 heading into the All-Star break, primarily as a DH. It seems inexcusable that a front office trying to contend continues to allow such trash to tarnish a potentially competitive team.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: THEY GOTTA BELIEVE
12:24
Kvn: Which #4 starter do the Orioles inevitably trade for?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be a quiet trade deadline
12:25
976: Nice to see him get some recognition, even if he was a substitute, is Yandy Diaz a future regular?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical. The walk-heavy guys don’t tend to translate to majors super well
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I PLEADED this to get you guys less excited about Tyler White, but none of you believe me
12:27
SteveO: Is there anything to be worried about with Arrieta? What do you think has been his problems of late?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I’m not overly concerned
12:28
Colin: Can Mike Foltynewicz stick in the rotation or will his difficulties against lefties banish him to the pen forever?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the platoon splits are really an established long-term issue yet
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Never go nuts over short term splits
12:29
Ethan: This might be a bit obscure, but for a guy like Harrison Bader, Florida guy taken in 2015 and just promoted to AAA, does he get a pass on his poor plate discipline numbers because of the huge increase in opposition talent that he’s faced over the past year, or do you think that’s gonna be a big problem for him down the road?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: The thing is, there’s no easy answer for this kind of thing.
12:29
Dan Szymborski: I generally think that players hitting well but with poor plate discipline ought to be promoted.
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Because you can’t really test plate discipline until a guy is being very challenged otherwise.
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Let’s say you got a guy who is hitting 300/330/600. That’s a poor walk rate, but given how well he’s hitting pitchers, it maybe the objectively correct approach at the plate.
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Now obviously Bader isn’t Kris Bryant, but I talked about this last year
12:32
Dan Szymborski: People went nuts about Bryant’s K rate in the minors while I did say (and you guys can find this to verify I’m sure!) that given how well he was hitting in the minors, being aggressive was the correct approach and his K rate likely wouldn’t be worse in the majors
12:32
Dan Szymborski: And it hasn’t
12:32
PL: Is there anywhere that one can see park factors or league factors for the minors?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Right now, I dont’ think so, but I always “roll my own”
12:33
Dan Szymborski: I’m probably the worst person to ask simply because I don’t look for the resource.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Minor League Central did use to have them, but that site appeared to be abandoned last year
12:33
Jack Glasscock’s Cup: One of the 100 questions asking the same thing: Dan, I can’t wait until Friday; whose 5-yr Zips projection is higher than Trout?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Fine.
12:33
Dan Szymborski: LeBron James.
12:34
Maxamuz: People smile and tell me I’m the lucky one.
12:34
Maxamuz: Love a guy who holds the world in a paper cup.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: OK Anne
12:35
976: I know it’s early, but you have to be somewhat concerned with Brady Aiken, right?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Now you’re just tormenting me
12:35
Jim: July 11 (aka 7/11) – Free Slurpies at 7-11 today !
12:35
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: What is your prediction of how the AL East will end up when the season is over? From first place to last place.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: There’s a ZiPS projection update at ESPN on Friday
12:35
Josh: Are you buying Matt Holliday in the second half? He’s crushing the ball, so his BABIP has to increase despite his age and lack of speed. Do you see the power continuing at a similar rate?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Just the usual Matt Holliday stuff.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I’m already half an hour behind. ASK FEWER QUESTION. Gawd
12:36
Progressive: Do you see the possibility of an A’s/Mets blockbuster? Hill, Valencia, and Vogt are all considerable upgrades for the Mets, who really only have the one year of Cespedes to push.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: I think if blockbusters were in the works, the Mets wouldn’t have turned back to Jose Reyes
12:37
Alan: How good is Marcus Semien? I believe he’s 1 dinger away from leading all shortstops?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: He’s good, but not amazing. If your’e a one-trick pony, HRs are the best trick to have, but he hasn’t been great otherwise and his long-term defense will still be meh-ish
12:38
Sean P: What would you say to people in sports media who insist that discussing political issues on twitter is something that they have an obligation to continue to profess given their platform over the average individual?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Well, it comes down to their personal view.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: My view is that nobody’s reading me for politics and politics is a very divisive issue, so why go into there?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: And I’m not a fan of political twitterverse
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Subtlety fares poorly in 140 character bursts.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: so everything seems to end in a grudge match between paranoid men’s rights manbaby trolls and histrionic virtue-signalling cri de cœur safe-spacers.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I couldn’t possibly have less interest in being a part of a dumbfiretruck culture war than I current have.
12:40
Jon: What’s a realistic return for Aroldis Chapman?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: A B+ prospect.
12:40
Bork: Who’s your 2016 contractual half-way busts? (aka not living up to their contract). Who’s your surprises?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Ask me if I don’t write a piece on this!
12:41
Bob: Are you worried at all about Jon Lester?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Not really
12:42
Nelson: If an allstar got traded today, would he change All-star teams?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I’ll be honest – I’m actually not sure at all. So this is more a question for you guys, just in case someone knows something offhand
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Because I can’t think about and answer this question in 60 seconds.
12:44
Alan: Who bites the bullet and drops a top-50 prospect for Hill? Mets? Red Sox?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Marlins?
12:44
Josh: What do you think the chances are David Stearns actually keeps Lucroy? There’s been a lot of talk that he’s not going to let him go unless a team meets the high demand he’s had on him from the beginning.
12:44
Dan Szymborski: There’s some chance it carries over for awhile, but there’s no real reason to never trade him
12:44
976: Re: Vampires. It’s Zobrist, he already doesn’t age.
12:44
PL: Would you rather drink two cups of coffee right before heading for bed or take a sleeping pill right after you wake up?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Sleeping pill right after I wake up
12:45
brent: Are you nervous about Thor?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: No.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I’m going to have to start banning these Are You Nervous About ________ After The Last Two Weeks? questions
12:45
Mike: Next couple of prospects to get called up for fantasy purposes? Guys like Bregman are already gone, Arcia or Margot worth stashing you think?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Arcia more than Margot.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Padres have been moving slowly
12:46
Mike: Josh Reddick for Paulo Orlando and Alec Mills. Who says no?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: A’s
12:46
Nigel Thornberry: Puig out of baseball in 2 years? Not at his age or with that arm. He is struggling and his numbers are still respectable aside from the slug%
12:47
Dan Szymborski: He could be. If he’s hovering around a .700 OPS with his rep, he’s not going to get a lot of in terest
12:47
Colin: What would a Sonny Gray trade package look like?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Less than it did before. A’s should have traded him this winter
12:48
976: Kim has basically outperformed his projections which were already pretty good. Is this sustainable? Can he be a future all star?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I think star’s a stretch, but he should be able to hit liek Mark Grace for awhile
12:49
Bork: Infante was the heart of the fans too. Why do you think he was being voted in so consistently?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Heh
12:49
PL: What can Oakland hope for in return for Rich Hill?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Well, as long as we’re talking hope, Mike Trout
12:49
EC: If Stras keeps it up, Cy Young in the future?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Kershaw’s a short-term unknown and while writers have moved off win-loss, it can break a tie
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I’d actually vote for Bumgarner right now though
12:50
mtsw: More value to the Orioles in getting another corner OF (allowing them to move Trumbo to DH) or in getting a SP? Obviously a quality SP will help more but there doesn’t seem to be many on the market.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Getting a SP would be more value, but the O’s are going to have trouble getting a SP that matters
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Rich Hill may now be the best Sp available this winter
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Unless Otani gets posted
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Hill won’t come cheap
12:52
Dan Szymborski: After hill, you have Garcia and Peavy, neither are likely to be traded
12:52
Dan Szymborski: So you have to look at guys that aren’t FAs this year. And they’ll be expensive and the O’s farm sucks.
12:52
Bork: Devon Travis hit a one handed HR recently. Just let that sink in.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Pete Gray didn’t hit a homer in the majors, but he did get a lot of hits
12:53
Dan Szymborski: well, not a lot, but a lot for a guy with one arm
12:53
Nigel Thornberry: Eduardo Rodriguez is a 6’2” lefty that throws 97 at 23 years old. He is not a finished product..
12:53
Dan Szymborski: No, but there are some questions
12:53
Neal: Will Stroman ever figure it out? What can we reasonably expect from him in the next couple years?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be a steady 3 WAR guy. People again got tooe xcited
12:53
Digital Dandy: Which july call up will bring the most heart and chemistry to their new team?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Omar Infante, who will help the Braves grab that key number 1 pick
12:54
mtsw: Would/should an MLB team sign Shohei Otani if he demands to DH on the days he doesn’t pitch, like he does in Japan?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Thank the gods he’s willing to?
12:54
Stevil: What more could we see the Diamondbacks do this season to prepare for 2017, if anything?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Fire Dave Stewart?
12:54
Michael: Is Rich Hill good from this day, until his dying day?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: It’s funny, ZiPS *loved* Hill when he was a prospect.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: But let’s not go nuts, Mormont.
12:55
Mike: Who would you rather have in 2018? Khris or Chris?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Do I get all the guys named Chris or just Davis?
12:55
PL: Do you believe in the Shohei Otani hype? I am certainly intruiged, myself.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I do and am more than intrigued.
12:55
phred g sanford: My son Lamont. Have you seen him? How about Grady?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, missed the ref
12:56
Justin: For pre-season projections such as Fangraphs that project say 81 wins for a team, 81 games is of course the average we expect them to win. But do we know what the expected distribution of that team’s wins is?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Well, unless FG prints it, no.
12:56
Neal Huntington : Would I be crazy to think Matt Moore could potentially be my next JA Happ?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: He’d be a fun pickup. And he doesn’t pronounce his initials as if they area a name
12:56
Dan Szymborski: are a name
12:56
Dan Szymborski: He’d have to go as MC Moore but pronounce it Muck.
12:56
hscer: should I ask Eno who the most balanced Hitler in the first half was?
12:56
mtsw: The Orioles have ~$7M in reported salary headroom for 2016. Can/should they just give all that to Mark Buehrle to come out of retirement?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Eh, I’m not sure it’s the best park for Buehrle to stage a comeback
12:57
Bork: Who gets a better contract this off season, Saunders or Bautista?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Bautista
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Bautista’s contract will be awful, I think
12:57
Andrew Friedman: I have a knack for making the deals nobody expects (Kendrick, Wood/Latos, Frazier deal). What’s your prediction for my annual off the wall trade for this summer?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: It’s not off the wall if I know about it
12:57
Jimmers: Who is Dan Szymborski?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: The motto on a really hack-y Atlas Shrugged ripoff, the original rather hack-y itself?
12:58
Guest: Best WWE gif?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: All the RKO ones obviously
12:58
mtsw: Will the Braves regret moving to the suburbs? Seems like a weird move when everyone agrees Tampa Bay’s big problem is that their stadium isn’t downtown.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: No, but the suburbs will regret it.
12:58
Harry Caray’s Ghost: Brady Aiken? Is that the guy that won American Idol all those years ago?
12:59
Johnny: Do you think Markakis would be a solid addition to a contender if Atlanta kicks in cash? 50% of his remaining contract.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: No
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Well, he’ll be solid in his matter state.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: He’s not a liquid or a gas.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Which is kind of too bad – if he was turned into a gas and dissipated into the atmosphere, the Braves wouldn’t have to pay him.
1:00
Argo: Is Benintendi the kind of hitter you could see skpping AAA and still being successful?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:00
Steve: Do you think Junior Guerra gets dealt this season? If so, what kind of return do you think the Brewers can expect? Very, VERY short track record.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: No
1:00
Chris: Are there any players you’re nervous about?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Well, Miller still
1:00
Pomeranz: Lorenzen closer in Cincy before year is over?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: You need wins to have a closer. The Reds will just throw whatever they have itno the role that isn’t too terrible at any given point
1:01
Dr. Met: Puig is the next frenchy at this point !
1:01
Dr. Met: re: french, minus being White and having the “good bench guy intangibles” labels of course
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s the problem.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: White guys that are terrible are always scrappy.
1:01
Guest: God forbid, if a pitcher tore his UCL in the all star game, what would baseball’s overreaction be? What about fans?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Declare the season a tie and demand more stadiums
1:02
Brett: The Marlins will drop a Top 50 prospect on Hill? Who is this mythical prospect in their system?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Good point
1:03
Murdoc: Samardzija made the All Star team with the Cubs but was ineligible to play when he was traded to the A’s.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Thanks!
1:03
Dan Szymborski: One week we should have Question Outsource in which all questions are open for answers. And probably answered better than me, because I’m terrible.
1:03
mtsw: The greatest video currently on the internet is the guy who compiled all of Otani’s 2015 strikeout pitches and inexplicably set it to music by The Offspring https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L88TThVSJ9Y
1:03
Erik: If you became a franchise doctor but made decisions purely based on ZiPS, ignoring scouting, player personalities, etc., how would you fare compared to normal organizations?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Mediocrely (is that a word) because good organizations use all the information at their disposal.
1:04
Steve: When do you see Dansby Swanson making his way to Atlanta?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: 2017
1:04
kevinthecomic: Are you nervous about Dan Szymborski?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: I should be.
1:05
Steve: Pretend you’re Ned Yost. Give the the pitchers you’d throw on Tuesday and the order you’ll throw them in.
1:05
Dan Szymborski: From a streategic standpoint, he should start Corey Kluber and have him pitch the entire game.
1:05
RMR: I realize you aren’t MGL, but any thoughts on Jay Bruce’s ridiculously poor UZR (currently at -20.6 UZR/150)? Actually performing that poorly? Billy Hamilton effect? Some other systematic bias in the way UZR works?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Don’t get nuts about short-term defensive stats.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Three months of UZR/150 is like one month of OPS.
1:06
Hank: Why would Hill cost so much? He’s likely not to pitch much after being acquired. His history says it all. Fragile as a wet paper bag. He’s 36, and a rental.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Because the market sucks
1:06
Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re after one, so let’s go into the Lightning Round
1:07
Dan Szymborski: The rules are simple: I must answer every question, so long as it’s off-topic and not one of the forbidden ones (work-related, excessively personal)
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Like I’m not answer questions about my sex life or my colleagues.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: And this continues until I catch up or arbitrarily decide I’m done.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: (Gotta have an out)(
1:07
Dan Szymborski: and GO
1:08
Morrissey: How does bullfighting still exist?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Cultural things ar ehard to overcome
1:08
Dude Bro: I was playing a Yogg ‘n Load Hunter deck yesterday, and I had only 6 HP and lethal on my opponent. I also had Yogg in hand and was able to play him. So I played Yogg, and the first thing he did was Pyroblast my face. I made the correct choice, right?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Always gotta do Yogg
1:08
Dude Bro: What’s your most fun deck in Hearthstone right now?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Yogg druid
1:09
Bork: If someone dies while playing Pokemon Go, or causes someones death, could Nintendo be held liable?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Probably. Lots of cases I find dumb
1:09
mtsw: Autonomous vehicles: panacea or vaporware? Big upside to the tech but a Tesla just killed a guy and Google is quietly revising their timeframe to “30 years.”
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Dumbasses kill people constantly
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll still come
1:09
Keith: Dan I’m dealing with a broken heart and difficulties connecting with the lady of my dreams. What should I do to get her back?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: The D.E.N.N.I.S. System is foolproof.
1:09
Dan Szymborski: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95Fx2aYQbQs
1:09
kevinthecomic: Are you nervous about the Zombie Apocalypse?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Yes. I have no skills that will help the survivors
1:09
Friend: Do you watch Mr. Robot?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: On my to-watch but have not.
1:10
Jack Glasscock’s Cup: On the Mel Brooks comedy scale (me getting a paper cut to you falling into a manhole), where do the upcoming RNC and the upcoming Olympic games fall?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Mel Brooks comedies tend to be intentionally funny
1:10
Jack Glasscock’s Cup: If you’re fighting giant crabs in bars, Dan, perhaps you are frequenting the wrong bars. In some, hygiene is better.
1:10
BS: Wine Preference, Red, White or the Pink Shit?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Red, but i’m not really a wine guy
1:10
976: Are you going to play no man’s sky?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Absofiretruckinglutely
1:10
Ryan: Do you watch Game of Thrones?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: No. Because the season is over.
1:10
Roy Hobbs: Do you prefer the book or film ending of The Natural?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Book.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Both because it works better and because I’m related to Malamud
1:11
Bork: We can’t ask you about your sex life? Can we ask if it even exists?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Because there are boundaries even in the wildest, wackiest chat on the internet
1:11
Josh: If you had to be an animal, which would you be and why?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Well, a human, becuase we’re animals.
1:12
ChopChop: Who’s the Lebron James of the fastfood world?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Five Guys?
1:12
RMR: Article idea: MLB teams as Hearthstone deck archetypes
1:12
Dan Szymborski: At the very least, it’ll confuse both the MLB and eSports editors
1:12
mtsw: In Denver they now have a light rail system that goes directly from downtown to the airport. Why does every city not have this?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the city layout, both for practicality and cost to build
1:12
Pomeranz: Why won’t xbox one make a baseball game?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: It’s a big undertaking and the one they did have, gone now, totally sucked
1:13
Dr. Met: Supercell worth the billions China paid for it?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Probably not
1:15
Harry Caray’s Ghost: Which of the three super ninjas from Big Trouble In Little China would be the best all around ballplayer?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Thunder
1:15
jtt: Is NPR getting kickbacks from google? They mention autonomous cars at least once per segment
1:15
Dan Szymborski: NPR likes that stuff
1:15
Brett: What is a Pokemon?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Pokémon without the accent
1:15
Bork: Don’t be worried about the zombie apocalypse, you’ll probably end up being a zombie, as will most of us.
1:15
Maruice: Black Lives Matter or All Lives Matter
1:15
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:16
mike sixel: Favorite widely available beer?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Sam Adams Boston Lager?
1:16
mtsw: Do you worry about EMP attacks? There’s randomly now a plank in the GOP platform about them.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: No stuff that’ll make my electronics not work, that scares me shipless
1:16
mijo: armageddon or deep impact?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Never actually saw deep imapct
1:16
Maxamuz: Rick Astley or Milli Vanilli?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: Astley? At least he did his own schlock.
1:16
Bork: There should be no boundaries in the Dan Szymborski mediocre chat of mediocrity
1:17
Mike : How excited are you to see new photos of Jupiter?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t know about them but just now
1:17
Maxamuz: More likely to win in a fight: Richard Simmons or PeeWee Herman?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Peewee Herman is younger, so him
1:18
Gary: Whoa. How are you related to Malamud?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: My grandfather and him have a common grandparent or great-grandparent (I forget which)
1:19
Dr. Met: Mouse + keyboard > controller for fps?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Well duh
1:19
Dock Ellis: Shouldn’t athletes use their platform for politics more since most of them come from the part of society no one really listens to?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Their choice
1:19
mijo: How did you like the “Sunny” episode this season based on sartres no exit
1:19
Dan Szymborski: It was very funny and it was surprisingly sweet towards the end
1:20
Dan Szymborski: and it had one of my favorite moments
1:20
Dan Szymborski: when charlie gets a gun and is suddenly competent
1:21
Dan Szymborski: “None of should have a gun”
1:21
Dan Szymborski: “But…one of us does…so….the end.”
1:22
Bork: Since you seem to be an rpg nut, have you tried out Grand Kingdom? It’s like disgaea and final fantasy tactics had an ugly baby.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Don’t actually yet hav ea PS4 or Vita
1:22
Brendan: Excited for I am Setsuna?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: I’m quite interested and it’s on Steam!
1:22
mtsw: “Bless your heart” just southerner-speak for “go fuck yourself” or am I missing some nuance here?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: It’s like one of those untranslateable german terms
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Liek Schnapsidee
1:23
Josh: What is the best documentary you’ve watched on Netflix?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Don’t really watch documentaries
1:23
mijo: is “the newsroom” as bad as people say it is???
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I found it pretty awful and stopped watching it quickly. Maybe it got better
1:24
Beastmode: Sup Dan?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Not till later.
1:24
Josh: Do you believe Steven Avery killed Teresa Halbach?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: don’t really know
1:24
Bork: Supercell is easily worth that much. The creator of Flappy Bird was making at least 50k a DAY from ad revenue. Supercell has multiple IPs bringing in a butt ton of money already.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I can’t help but think that these companies get bought when most of their interesting IPs are in the past
1:24
Toki: A new Overwatch champ comes out on x?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Don’t think they have a release date unless I missed it
1:24
Danny Almonte: If pokemon were real, how soon would we all be dead?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: We could just put them back into the balls
1:25
Dock Ellis: Your Thoughts on the ever expanding population of humans on Earth?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s projected to peak around 2070 last I ch ecked so not necessarily ever expanding
1:25
mtsw: Using baseball scouting terms in non-baseball situations: 30-grade comedy or plus-plus ceiling?
1:25
Maxamuz: Who would you rather hear sing the God Bless America at the ASG: Rich Astley or PeeWee Herman?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Pee Wee. I at least have nostalgia for him
1:25
Toki: licorice or Jelly beans?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Licorice. There’s no gamble
1:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m not answering 50 pokemon qs
1:25
Dracula: Everyone gains speed/agelessness subsequent to becoming a vampire, so the winner would be the most ruthless. Give me Machado.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: A.J. Pierzynski then
1:26
Danny Almonte: for FPS would you say mouse and keyboard takes less skill than controllers?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: No, you have to be a controller deity to not suck against mouse/keyboard players
1:26
Chuncey Wiggins: You have a spiral notebook. It’s large and filled with notations and personal feelings. How many doodles would involve erotic vampire foreplay?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: None. Not into vampires
1:26
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you rather be forced to speak like Donald Duck at funerals or speak like Beavis and Butthead at weddings?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Beavis and Butthead
1:26
mtsw: What would Neil deGrasse Tyson say about baseball if he were asked to comment on it?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Awkward things like when he jumps into other subjects that aren’t his expertise
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Like when he announced that countries shouldn’t have constitutions, but just a big Cult of Reason thing.
1:27
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you rather have a literal cannon for an arm or literal pogo sticks for legs?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Pogo sticks.
1:27
mtsw: All ice cubes should be spherical now. We have the technology. Change my view
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Cube can be stashed more efficiently
1:28
Chuncey Wiggins: You rather get poked by an umbrella or prodded with a cane?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Cane
1:28
jtt: Have a blessed day = go fuck yourself. Bless your heart is more “you are an idiot”
1:28
Eric: If you don’t believe Avery is innocent, do you at least agree the cops planted evidence to help build their case?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: I think it likely
1:29
Dock Ellis: Link to the population peaking in 2070?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/
1:29
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you rather eat the pages of a russian novel, or snort the ashes of 10 haikus?
1:29
Dan Szymborski: snort ashes
1:29
Maxamuz: Could you beat Eno in a submission match?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: I think so. Unless he’s specifically trained, my weight advantage is probably helpful
1:30
Maxamuz: What about Cistulli?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Cistulli we can only have our showdown in a more dramatic fashion
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Like among the ashes of humanity’s downfall
1:30
Ampersand: Why do you have four cats?
1:30
Dan Szymborski: Becaue I had three and got one more.
1:31
Jack Glasscock’s Cup: remember, Dan: Alles hat ein ende, nur die Wurst hat zwei. Words to live by right there
1:31
Maxamuz: I think Corinne Landrey will beat both of you.
1:31
Jack Glasscock’s Cup: . . . everything has an end, only sausage has two.
1:32
Toki: I’m partial to ma-hi ma-hi, what’s your favorite fish to eat?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: because of smoking, salmon
1:32
mtsw: Jeremy Lin plays Dota and Gordon Hayward plays Starcraft. Why is the NBA so far ahead of MLB in e-sports participation?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Not sure really
1:32
Enzo Amore: You watch Lesnar’s fight? Thoughts?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: I did not unfortunately
1:32
Bork: Neil deGrasse Tyson speaking about topics that aren’t his expertise makes my butt clench from the awkwardness.
1:32
Maxamuz: Pogs or Seltzer Water?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: seltzer
1:32
mtsw: Both my sister and brother-in-law are very athletic. Should I try to convince them to name their son “Braden” or something similar to boost my nephew’s chances of one day playing in MLB?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:32
Ampersand: Are you more afraid of growing old or not growing old?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Not
1:33
Dan Szymborski: I wanna at least get to my HOF vote!
1:33
Harry Caray’s Ghost: Which is greater? All the pickled peppers that Peter Piper can pick, or all the wood that a woodchuck can chuck?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: peppers. Peter Piper as a human has the ability to delegate work and hire people
1:33
mtsw: Peak oil: crackpot theory or inconvenient truth?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: An over-hysterical truth.
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Peak oil will happen as a matter of math, but the proponents are usually very poor at estimating sources of future oil
1:34
Bork: Cistulli/Szmborski showdown would be like Anakin/Obi-Wan in Episode 3, except with more slapping and crying.
1:34
ChopChop: Have you seen the Blitzball? Or the knock off, swerveball? What could Kershaw do with one of those?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I have not
1:34
Bratislava: what was the most influential moment of your life?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Finding usenet
1:34
Brother Nero: What did you think of THE FINAL DELETION?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen
1:34
Bratislava: Favorite way to ride a horse?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Not to
1:35
Ben: That population graph was Afghanistan peaking in 2070. When set to WORLD, it shows continued growing past 2100….
1:35
Dan Szymborski: It’s not the only source, there are othe rprojections but none I could get in a few seconds
1:35
Bratislava: rather play hockey or football without any pads/headgear?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: football
1:35
Chuncey Wiggins: You are the anti-Bond. You have to repulse a girl so badly at a bar that she leaves immediately…it’s to save the country, but you can’t be vulgar…what do you say?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Hi
1:35
Dr. Met: Will we ever see the end of taxfunded stadiums for old curmedgeon billionaires?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: No
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Only when inflation makes them old trillionaires
1:36
Dan Szymborski: AND END
1:36
Dan Szymborski: it’s over, go home.
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody! As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com on both baseball and eSports (hearthstone and overwatch right now), chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter
1:36
Dan Szymborski: End communiqué.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

1 Comment
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Bob Davidson
7 years ago

bless your heart mtsw, have a blessed day

1