Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/25/16

12:01
Dan Szymborski: I’m watching Hook. RU-FI-O! RU-FI-O!

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Also as a note, since I’ve been talking Chapman on Twitter for like 12 hours, all Chapman questions will be answered with non-sequiturs.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: I actually like Hook.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: No, it’s not great, but it’s fine.

12:02
Matt: Who made Ryan Schimpf Barry Bonds?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: TEH STEROIDS~!!!!!!oneoneoneonetwothree

12:03
Rusty Shakleford: If that’s what the Yankees got for Chapman, what would they get from Texas for Miller?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: That’s a question I’d like to know the answer too!

12:04
Drew7: Are the Cubs crazy?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s an overpay, but the non-Torres players aren’t really *that* exciting

12:04
Jack: Braves fan here…is Dansby Swanson overhyped? His stats and promotions are pailing in comparison to Bregman.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Everybody pales next to Bregman this year – he’s gone nutso

12:05
Philip: On your Kemp tweet when Pomeranz was traded, I imagine that is much more a ownership call than Preller’s sadly. Not only cause of money but because they were ones to push for the trade

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Which one? I made a lot.

12:05
PL: Should I expect Sean Manaea and Kendall Graveman to continue their nice run of starts?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: More bullish on Manaea

12:06
Dan Szymborski: And note, while I’m saving the political quesitons for the lightning round and am forced to answer them, I’ll still hate you for life for bringing up politics.

12:06
johnforthegiants: Wow, the Cubs are giving up a lot. I trust Theo, so is this a good deal?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Meh

12:07
Dan Szymborski: OK, well I answered my Chapman Q, so enter non-sequitur mode.

12:07
Norah: Thoughts on Zach Eflin’s potential? Has pitched 2 CG already. Thanks

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Don’tt hink he has any real ace potential, but he’ll be a good mid rotation guy I think

12:07
Philip: Wouldn’t you rather trade this supposed package for Odorizzi than Chapman?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Pepsi is Coke that gave up on life.

12:08
Zock Jr.: Hey, Dan. I wanna thank you for the range of questions you tackle in these chats. (Don’t worry, I won’t ask you about fangraphs inner-workings.) My Teheran for his Berrios and Harvey in a 20-team, 12-keeper? I’m on the edge of contention, but probably can’t get there this year.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I would make that trade if you can’t really compete this year

12:08
EbenezerBatflip: ZYMBO – YOU AND I HAVE UNFINISHED BUSINESS ::INTENSE FIGHT MUSIC PLAYS::

12:08
Justin: What advice do you have for college students interested in working in baseball analytics?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Be a programming wizard.

12:08
Nimish: Are there any teams that are building their team without winning a championship being the primary goal (and instead focusing on building a perennially playoff or never be terrible team)? Is that a reasonable mindset for a team? Such a team might not trade future value for present value when they are in a playoff race or might sign veterans even in a year where the team isn’t likely a playoff team.

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I assume the Rockies.

12:09
Dan Szymborski: Padres too, but I like to say Rockies first to get my Purple Row friends mad at me.

12:09
JP: Who’s got the brighter future, Dahl or Conforto?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I like both, but think Dahl has more upside.

12:09
Jeff Lunhow: Playoff odds now have the Astros as a favorite to win the AL West. Who do you think ultimately wins the AL West?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: I would agree that the Astros are very slight favorites now. It’s really more of a coin flip

12:10
Zach: I’ve mentioned this in the comments to Dave’s deadline prediction article, but I’m befuddled that Tyler Chatwood’s name has not surfaced at all in the rumor mill. With a relatively thin starter market, not to mention an additional/cheap year of control, he seems like he could be a nice lowkey acquisition to bolster the back of someones rotation. Am I overvaluing him?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: I like Chatwood. I dont’ think you’re overvaluing him, but I’d wager the Rockies are.

12:11
Dan: Anything interesting happening today?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Getting some Chinese food

12:11
Disco Dan: Even if it were McKinney and Torres for Chapman, that would still be considered an over pay for 40 innings right? i guess the cubs really want to break the curse

12:11
Dan Szymborski: I stepped on something cold and wet in the kitchen last night, but it was a melted ice cube, not cat barf.

12:11
Disco Dan: What happened to Warren? Zips was all over him

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Relievers are weird.

12:11
Matt: Hi Dan. I missed you.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: That sounds like a lie.

12:12
a Friendly Hippo: The White Sox intended on drafting Benintendi one pick after the Red Sox did so obviously they have interest in him. Can the BoSox move him, Devers, and Kopech and get Sale? Who says no?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I’m honestly unsure whether the White Sox are realistic in what they coudl get

12:12
Maxamuz:

12:13
Maxamuz: Let that trades begin!

12:13
Picayune: Mitch Haniger has done some surprising things this year, including hit 8 homers in the last nine games and play CF in the PCL. Outside of the wrap on the Parra trade I can’t remember him ever being mentioned on FG and he certainly gets short thrift from other scouting services. Does ZIPS think he has any chance of being more than a 4th outfielder?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually has him up to .259 .323 .432 so his outlook is certainly improving, though I think 4th OF more likely

12:13
Maxamuz:

12:13
Jimbo: Who is a good RoS value comparison for Bregman?

12:14
Dan Szymborski:

12:14
Myyyy Legggg: How badly does an injury in the minors, such as what Kyle Lewis just experienced, affect their value as a prospect? Have to imagine Lewis was going to be in the top 100 this offseason.

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the injury and how risky the player was to begin with.

12:14
Bill: Sort of an under the radar Q, but Andrelton Simmons has drastically cut his pop-up rate this year. Combined with never striking out, do you think he can hit .280+ and be a borderline superstar as a good hitter with no power?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: If he hits .280 then he is.

12:14
SlumDog: With Zobrist and Russell blocking the middle infield, does Javier Baez have a long-term future with the Cubs?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Not necessarily, but a surplus isn’t really a problem.

12:15
Josh: Would Chris Sale have gone all Edward Scissorhands had the White Sox not booted their clubhouse leader this spring training? Yet again the curse of Drake Laroche lives on…

12:15
otakon: Hi Dan, in your opinion, how the Yankees will operate this winter? Do you foresee a big buyer club or another transition year that will lead to a bigger free agent crop in 2017-2018?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Your guess is as good as mine. The Yankee organization doesn’t even all agree on their direction.

12:15
MeBaran: Let’s just get this out of the way: How much does a 4 players for Chapman trade affect this year’s playoff/WS odds? Next year’s?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: I get like a 1% boost to Cubs WS chances.

12:16
TigerDog: What should the Tigers do this week – buy, sell, or stand pat?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: If they have the opportunity to buy, they should buy – when this team falls out of a playoff hunt, they’re going to be *bad* no matter who they don’t trade.

12:17
Erik: Dan Vogelbach seems like the ultimate Moneyball player, consistently putting up good numbers (top wOBA in all of AAA) while being thoroughly unable to “sell jeans”. Will he prove to be worth far more than a reliever, or will the scouts win this round?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK with limited upside, but not a great fit for Seattle

12:18
Frostilicus: If Baltimore does trade for Melvin Upton, do you see them hanging on to him or repackaging him for starting pitching?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: If a team has starting pitching that a contender ought to want, they’re not trading said pitching for Melvin Upton.

12:19
Randy Randerson: Is Cischek gets dealt who will close in Seattle?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Edwin Diaz, I’d presume

12:19
EbenezerBatflip: Great, now you’ve reminded me how much I miss Robin Williams, my day is ruined. Thanks for that

12:20
Randy Randerson: Realistically, what are Edwin Encarnation & Joey Bats markets next offseason? NL teams should be out as both need to play DH, small market teams would be out, doesn’t that leave Bos, Tor, Hou, maybe Chicago? As a Jay’s fan, I think they’ll realize this and we should be able to get one back at a reasonable price.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll get ill-conceived contracts – the market is fairly weak so reasonable prices don’t strike me as likely

12:20
TC: I thought Longenhagen did Monday chats. Not trying to be a dick, just trying figure out if I have the schedule wrong.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: You still have Longenhagen – I’ve been doing 12 PM Monday for years

12:20
sam: Would it make any sense for the Reds to just hold onto Jay Bruce, decline his option, and offer a QO? Risk of him accepting aside, could that pick be worth more than the assumed middling return in a trade right now?

12:20
Dan Szymborski: No

12:21
The Decadent Moose: Odds the Cardinals trade for Sale? They have an incredibly stable rotation right now, but have prospects the White Sox need.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: 100-1

12:21
Avi: Is Giolito just getting cups of coffee or does Washington really not want to stretch him out and therefore he isn’t going to do much until 2017 or 2018?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: The Nats like to be conservative.

12:21
Houzer : Is Pollock worth a pick-up without an open DL spot in a re-draft league?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the alternative.

12:21
976: How does ZiPS account for a higher expected BABIP in the lower levels? I’m assuming fielding is worse in AA than MLB. But does weaker hitting make up for that? Is expected BABIP about .310 across all levels?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a model which includes a good bit of hit ball data.

12:22
Dan: So much for that Warren ZiPS projection…

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that ones not looking well

12:22
Bruce: Have you ever had a blister that lasted a MONTH?? That time I ran an ultra marathon in too small brand new wingtips my blister only lasted 1 week. What is wrong with Rich Hill?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Not a month, but I do have a tendency to get eczema on my hands once or twice a year

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Josh Beckett used to have blister problems too.

12:22
Justin: How does Sale’s knife party affect his trade prospects?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t.

12:23
Avi: I was thinking with the extension the trade is somewhat redeeming. Without it? It reminds me a lot of the Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick trade the Mets made in 2000.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Eh, depends. I’m not sure the guarantee of horribly overpaying for a closer now rather than risk not being the winner of horribly overpaying for a closer in four months is *that valuable.

12:23
TengoPreguntas: Torres, Warren, McKinney, plus for Chapman? Please tell me this is a bad dream.

12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m not paying $2000 a night to stay in a hotel on Boardwalk – it’s literally around the corner from the slums.

12:25
Chuck: Glasnow’s shoulder injury, plus continued lack of command, make me think this is who he is.

12:25
Dan Szymborski: The shoulder mostly.

12:25
ChopChop: I have Billy McKinney in a dynasty league. Does this trade help me?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Not really. There are reasons to be very worried about him

12:25
Sam: How does ZiPS account for a guy like Jameson Taillon? No MLB track record, missed two full seasons then comes back? Is his projection mostly based on 2013 data?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Awkwardly

12:26
Sitaman: What is the latest on who the Cubs are offering for Chapman? Torres headlining, but also Warren and Candelario? I get it’s not a great deal for a rental, but if they can’t get Miller, what other dominant reliever could they get, and really, would they be any cheaper in today’s trade deadline market?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: When a mailman gives you a letter, basic physics means you’re also giving him the absence of a letter.

12:26
Matt: Is it possible that Chris Sale is the dumbest player in the MLB?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: No

12:26
Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely the player with the best metabolism.

12:26
BJOGC: I happen to enjoy your non-sequiturs so…..how about that aroldis chapman?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I went to the doctor and he told me I was fat. I said “doctor, doctor, how about a second opinion” and he said “you’re at risk of contracting adult-onset diabetes if you don’t maintain a healthy weight too.” Doctors don’t get the old standards.

12:29
ChopChop: Can you name the 2B with a higher WRC+ than Altuve? Hint: his ISO is 70 points higher and I have no idea why. Maybe you could explain ISO as well.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Is there one? I don’t have it open, but that doesn’t sound right

12:29
Josh: Will Justin Upton’s end of season numbers be typical J-Up numbers, or is he actually worse?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: He’s too far off Justin Upton numbers to end up with Justin Upton numbers becaue he’d need two months of way better than Justin Upton numbers to make Justin Upton numbers

12:30
Guest: If you’re the Astros, do you keep Bregman and make the pieces fit? Or dangle him for Archer or Sale? Feel like he’d have to be the best prospect available to either team at the moment

12:30
Dan Szymborski: I keep Bregman unless trades involve “Bregman” rather than “packages including Bregman”

12:31
The Decadent Moose: I was expecting more of a Family Guy “non-sequitur mode” so now I’m disappoint.

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Oh, is randomness what you want? Fine. I’ll simply post dreams I had then, which are way more random.

12:31
madsammich: Wow you’re a bitch. Who the fuck cares if you’re fat ass is on twitter all day

12:31
Dan Szymborski: An interesting case. But how do you take into account risk skewness?

12:32
Switheart: Would Moncada be an upgrade for the Red Sox if he was called up right now? The speed alone is tempting for the playoffs

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I actually think he’d be a fun bench guy in the playoffs.

12:32
BJOGC: I’m learning SQL at work and it seems surprisingly easy. Am I just a quick learner or is everyone else just overstating how complicated it is?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: HUMBLEBRAG

12:33
Purple Row Friend: [Fury…or something]

12:33
Chuck: Any chance Dahl becomes the bigger factor, Coors notwithstanding , than Bregman?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: That’s a stretch. Bregman is bad ass.

12:33
TengoPreguntas: What kind of Chinese food? Sczeshwan (sp) or spicy basil chicken?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Hole in the wall down the street.

12:34
Maxamuz:

12:34
Maxamuz:

12:34
Philip: Pepsi is so much better than coke…

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Banned.

12:34
S: Does Story hit 40 HRs this year?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I say no, but he’ll be shcokingly close

12:35
Maxamuz:

12:35
Los: Trade Tanaka and Rendon for Kershaw in a redraft? Rendon is being rotated in a Util spot for me with Valencia/Conforto right now.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: I would

12:35
EbenezerBatflip: Is there really no team in baseball that wants to pay half of Rusney Castillo’s salary?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: You don’t!

12:35
Ben Brode: Did you see the finale of seatstory last night? How crazy was that match. We need more crazy decks!

12:35
Dan Szymborski: YOU NOT REAL BEN BRODE

12:35
Erik: If the yankees are bad for a couple of years, does that hurt their chances in the free agent market? Or is free agency purely about money, which the yankees certainly have no shortage of?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Money talks

12:36
Mike R.: Does Tyler Wade have an MLB future?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Utility guy mainly. It’s too easy to overrate a guy that gets most of his minor league value from walks

12:36
TP for my Jung Ho: Best Twitter follows for MLB trade deadline information?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Ken Rosenthai of course.

12:36
Jason: Does the reported Chapman deal mean he (and every other RP that can actually retire a batter) is destined to make truly stupid money as a FA this winter?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: —————–
I was playing golf with Ezra Pound and he started getting very angry that we didn’t stop for lunch after the 9th hole and I insistently told him that it was an 8:00 tee time and it would make more sense to get lunch after we finished but he threw a giant temper tantrum so we went to the clubhouse for sandwiches and they had a sandwich named after David Wiers and David Wiers was in the clubhouse too but he didn’t want to order his sandwich because it had horseradish on it and I asked why a sandwich named after him had stuff on it he didn’t like and he didn’t say anything because he got in a fistfight with Ezra. I didn’t see who won because I went back onto the course because I left my car keys next to one of the ball washers.
——————

12:37
MeBaran: What are the plans for ZiPS after this season? Are you appointing a caretaker? [raises hand]

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Am I dying? Is this how my doctor tells me, through a post in my FanGraphs chat?

12:37
Sean: Say like you had someone that was 27 and very athletic, but never played baseball before. If they want to maximize their chances of being an MLB player, should they learn to hit or pitch?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Pitch

12:37
Man: Should the Orioles consider trading Tillman for Bregman+

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, in the same vein as I would consider selling ZiPS for $100 million.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: PLUS? How greedy are we?

12:38
VG: I would love an outfield of Melvin Upton, Giancarlo Stanton and Metta World Peace.

12:38
Josh: So i see David Robertson and Zach Duke’s name being mentioned around; can the white sox really move them? (please say yes)

12:38
Dan Szymborski: They can. The question is the willingness.

12:38
Rick C: Should the Braves lessen their demand and trade Teheran?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:39
Erik: Will the 2010-2014 Giants be remembered as a dynasty a few decades from now? Winning three world series is five years is quite the feat, but they never seemed particularly imposing or clearly the best team in baseball at any point in that stretch, which seems to be a “dynasty” prerequisite. Thoughts?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of parity – very few teams are the best team in baseball for any significant stretch

12:39
fresh basil: Can’t wait to bid $60 on Chapman in my league just to puss everyone off. (I’m losing horribly)

12:39
Dan Szymborski: —————-
Me and Terence Trent D’Arby went to a Phillies game and I got these nachos with ice cream on them and I tried to tell the vendor that I wanted nacho cheese and he said that nacho cheese was illegal now. Then me and Rick Schu went to get cheesesteaks but for some reason we got them at Best Buy.
—————-

12:39
Oblarg: Thoughts on O’s rotation (and the AL East race in general) moving forward, given addition of Bundy and likely departure of Jimenez?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: The O’s rotation is going to remain a weakness no matter what happens.

12:40
Ember: Yanks would get best return for Miller: a) before this year’s deadline; b) during the off-season; c) before next year’s deadline ?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Now.

12:40
Joe: Can you expand upon your answer to the Glasnow question? Are you saying that his shoulder was mostly the reason he had a horrible start? or that His shoulder is going to doom him to suck forever? Wasn’t sure what you meant.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: The shoulder is the source of my worry.

12:40
Jeb: Am I the only one that wishes there were more players with personalities like Sale? Pure comedy gold. Or is this against the unspoken rules?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: I would love more characters

12:40
Giants fan: Is there legitimate skill behind Bumgarner’s massive FIP-ERA gap, or is it just luck?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: His career difference isn’t that big

12:41
Reginald Denton III: Do you think Sale will actually be traded? I don’t.

12:41
Dan Szymborski: I do not

12:41
Jeb: Are there any new concerns with McKinney since the beginning of the season?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Mostly that he just hasn’t been good.

12:41
mookie best: Looking to take a flyer on a rookie. Do you see Dahl or Margot providing more value in the near-term? Dahl is up but Margot is rumored to be soon. 5 cat + walks. Thanks Dan

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Dahl. I love Margot, but fantasy ain’t park-neutral

12:41
Tom: Oooh, funny one-liners. So you think Chapman can throw hard or what?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: ————-
The Royals signed Kevin Correia to a 2-year, $16 million contract. Dayton Moore talks a lot about him being the king of the rotation because they’re going on this spree in which they give players Royal titles instead of baseball-soundy titles because. The Royals also signed fMickey Tettleton and I had to make tweets bashing the Tettleton signing which made me super sad because Tettleton was one of my favorite players. I also gave Josh Nelson a flash drive with all the Squeeze songs on there

12:42
Tom: To follow-up on the J-Up question – do you think Justin Upton puts up Justin Upton numbers for the rest of the season?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: A little lower. Our expectations have to change. Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis

12:43
Dr Evil: How does your multii-year ZIPS deal with hitters (or pitchers) changing leagues? Does it assume there is some sort of adjustment period or is it basically a constant offset from the projections regardless of whether it

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Never found any.

12:43
Dan Szymborski: The difference between the leagues is just about nothing these days.

12:44
976: I’m a moron and considered a SQL expert.

12:44
a Friendly Hippo: SQL is easy at first, then you start to actually use it and it becomes infinitely more complex. Slow your roll brah

12:44
976: I’m only here because the Pokemon servers are down.

12:44
Oliver: Matt Joyce is having a better season than Andrew McCutchen because baseball

12:44
Maxamuz: Nothing is better than an ice cold coke in a bottle that was packaged in Mexico with real cane sugar.

12:44
976: What’s wrong with Core-Dick? Still adjusting to TB or we should really call him Coors-y Dickerson?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: He was overrated.

12:44
Oliver: has Sale changed his sond to Gods Gonna Cut you down by Johnny Cash yet?

12:44
Trainman:

12:44
Josh: OMG did you hear the Yankees just traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs!!!! your thoughts?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: I’m guest hosting an ESPN show called “Feed the Discussion” which is a lunchtime sports argument show in which people argue about sports and eat food. It went well, though I introduced myself as just Szymborski. I’m given a second episode, but this time it’s set in Malta for some reaosn and there’s no discussion – I just eat food. But weirdly, it’s South American food. For the last thing, I’m brought penguin meat, which looked like beef and was served raw and it was fairly lemony.

12:45
Billy: If Chapman gets Torres, what kind of prospect could Edwin Diaz fetch?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: ————-
Aaron Gleeman and I started up a company that traded paprika over the high seas using 17th century sailing ships but my mom tried to tell us that paprika was easily obtainable at a grocery store and nobody would pay top dollar for paprika. But she was wrong as we became the official paprika supplier for the NFL.
————-

12:45
Conner W.: I noticed you addressed the Rockies a little bit. Wouldn’t a team be willing to overpay for CarGo at this point? Seems like the only place his value could go right now is down for the Rockies

12:45
Dan Szymborski: If the Rockies don’t trade CarGo in the next week, they’re terrible. Now, they’ll still be terrible if they do, but at least slightly more so.

12:45
Parents: Should we consider trading you+ for Bergman?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: There better be a lot of pluses if you expect me to fetch Bregman.

12:46
Jim Lonborg: Are you interested in dream analysis, or do you just write them down for the sake of weird little narratives?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I want to analyze these.

12:46
Leif Erikson: How dumb are the Reds for not holding onto Chapman now?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Very.

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, I’m ruining the schtick

12:46
Dan Szymborski: ———-
I went to the tmobile store to replace my phone and the lady there offered me my identical phone, but it would cost $97 straight up, which annoyed me because my phone is 4 years old and kind of sucks. So instead, she showed me this phone that was only $35, it was this badass phone with a huge, high resolution screen and you could plug it into a TV. The problem was that the phone said ValueTime in big letters on the front and I didn’t want a ValueTime phone, no matter how awesome it was.

12:47
Bob: Do all your dreams involve ex baseball players? Um… does Chapman literally fires bullets?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: ———-
The New Pornographers live at an airport in France where the airport gives them free lodging in return for occasional concerts for people waiting at security. Except Dan Bejar who quits the band because he doens’t like French people.
———

12:48
Philip: When will people realize that Petco Park is now a nuetral park?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: It’s still a better pitchers’ park thatn Coors

12:48
Trainman: Kennys Vargas has been solid since he’s been called up. Is he a long term piece there, or do you think park is the twins long term answer

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Not a long term piece.

12:48
Bucket List: “How dumb are the Reds for not…” should be the name of the Braves new stadium.

12:48
Oliver: Should the Pirates look to deal Melancon? Even if they sell him they could potentially still be in the hunt for the final WC spot, right?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: I *actually* think they should trade McCutchen.

12:49
Leif Erikson: Maybe Theo has a Chapman trade lined up with another team….

12:49
Dan Szymborski: ——–
Me and Cookie Monster started a band called Oreo Speedwagon that covered New Wave songs but replaced the lyrics with new ones about cookies. We were playing at Dave’s bar mitzah (?) and he was mad becuase we told him that we were better than we actually were. We had to play in the parking lot and I had one of those cool double guitars except half the double guitar was a bass guitar though I could not play because I don’t know how to play guitar. Found a great microwave in the parking lot too.

12:49
Leif Erikson: As a Cubs fan, I would have rather traded Schwarber for Miller.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I think so.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Though as an O’s fan, I want the Yankees to foolishly hang onto all their pieces.

12:50
Rusty: The biggest change for Dahl this year is seems to be more than doubling his previous career walk rate. Do you think he can keep that up?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: I think so. Walk flukes are fairly rare and he’s not getting walks by being super passive at the plate either

12:50
Trainman: Will Chris sale be Chris sold by next Monday? See what I did there?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: OMG WERE HAVING A FIRE sale

12:50
Trainman: Can the twins realistically trade joe Mauer?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Not really.

12:50
GDUBSSS: Zips projects Yelich for a 362 BABIP for rest of season. Seems high but also reasonable. Would you take over or under on that?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Probably under, but nto that far under.

12:51
Trainman: What do you see the mets doing this trade deadline? They don’t have a fulmer to get a cespedes, are they stuck adding bullpen arms or can they get in on a starter to replace Matt Harvey?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s fairly quiet for the Mets.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Hang on a sec, I need to answer an email from my editor

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Use the next two quiet minutes to reflect on your sins and why you are why America has lost its way.

12:54
Erik: What’s the most you’d recommend a team give up for an elite closer rental?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Torres. But that’s if you get the maximum value for the closer in that your *regular* season wins have significant leverage

12:54
Dan Szymborski: That’s not a specific Chapman Q, jus tone applicable to Chapman, so no dream

12:54
Erik: Who would benefit the most if selling players straight up for cash became normal again, a la Babe Ruth? Rich teams? Poor teams? Veterans? Prospects?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Poor teams. A lot of times you just need the cash.

12:55
Mike: What do you see the Astros doing with their infield/lineup with Bregman now up and Gurriel soon to follow?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: I think they play it by ear, see who plays well, fit in at-bats here and there for the playing time loser.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: TOO MANY AWESOME INFIELD OPTIONS has been a problem for a team zero times ever.

12:55
Lucifer: My heart goes out to all the remaining Reds fans!!

12:55
Avi: Would the Mets need to include a lot more than D’Arnaud in a deal for Lucroy? Perhaps Ynoa?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: You’re going to have throw in a real prospect. The Brewers don’t seem to be urgent about a Lucroy trade

12:56
Bork: Hi this is a Chapman comment please give me a story.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: ——–
Me and Antonio Vivaldi went to Five Guys to get burgers. I bought him a hamburger and he stabbed me. It was actually Tom Wilkinson and not Vivaldi, even though I know what Vivaldi looked like.
——–

12:57
Guest: Humor me – Hill for Puig

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Meh, not sure that’s what the A’s should be doing

12:57
Philip: Ivan Nova will go to the Pirates or Cubs and have 2.7 ERA ROS

12:57
forever it: Prices have been SLASHED for this sale

12:57
Matt: Fiers for Sale? Sounds light.

12:57
Josh: Who gets Lucroy?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: I keep thinking they’ll trade him, but a part of me says he’ll end the year as a Brewer and not be traded until January

12:57
Bork: Because of my Canadian sins, America has lost its way.

12:57
Disco Dan: Do you think J-Up opts out next year if he continues on this path?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: No

12:58
a Friendly Hippo: Bogaerts has a .375 BABIP. How far does that regress?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Some, but I expect it wills tay on the high side

12:58
don tony:

12:58
Matt: These two “quiet minutes” seem to have the same auditory characteristics as an other minutes in this chat

12:58
Corb: SQL is easy until normalization becomes a thing. I’m way behind

12:58
HappyFunBall: ChopChop is talking about Ryan Schimph. 167 wRC+ in 106 PA. It’s a thing that has happened, but that doesn’t mean he will continue to slug .648 going forward

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he’s not going to slug .648. But the Padres are terrible and should be playing him until he proves otherwise

12:58
you are the pan, man: when he imagines all the food at the table, while it looks great, i never understood the cakes that were just frosting

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like icing, it’s too sweet

12:59
Bucket List: If Donald Trump was the Yankees GM, he would have extracted more in a Chapman deal. And the Yankees would be in first place since he nuked Fenway and Camden.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I laughed

12:59
Matt: Where would you rate Yanks farm as of yesterday? How about as of 3 hours from now?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Probably 10th-12th or so, and it’s in to p10 now

12:59
Mets: Oh hey Brewers here’s a mediocre catcher who doesn’t play half the season but you can control him for a while. Can we have one Lucroy please?

12:59
Elton: Joc Pederson — are you bullish on him improving or is he a star as-is? (or both)

1:00
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s a star as-is. I think his BA will generally stay too low for that. But I think he’ll just be an above-average player for a decade.

1:00
Trainman: Best Pokemon you have caught in Pokemon go? I actually caught a dragonite chilling in a bar my wife and I were at saturday. Needless to say I had enough sobriety and luck to catch the dang thing. Dragonite is awesome.

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Still mostly oberving others – I’ve been swamped

1:00
Matt: I have a theory that this Friday, Wikileaks will release a dump of emails where we find out that Warren was just sent as an operative in a much larger plan made to pitch like crap and make his way back to the Yanks as a lesser valued player.

1:00
crystal pepsi: will you enjoy me when i return to shelves in august?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: I’m a soda egalitarian – I hate all Pepsi colors equally.

1:01
Disco Dan: what could the yankees get if they packaged Betances, Miller and Chapman in one trade?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: I think as a group it’s hard to get fair value

1:01
Mike: What is your typical Five Guys order?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Cheeseburger with onions and tomato

1:01
Reginald Denton III: Could Bregman end up being better than Corey Seager or Bogaerts?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: He *could* though that’s a high bar

1:02
TC: Thoughts on Darvish ROS? Have a chance to get him for Bregman and Jon Gray. Im terrified of recently hurt pitchers.

1:02
Dan Szymborski: If you’re short-term, you gotta take that risk.

1:02
a Friendly Hippo: Click this so I can see it turn that beautiful shiny blue

1:02
Matt: In a world where Chapman brings back what he did, do you think it’s realistic to send Miller to Japan for the rights to sushi?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Seems fair.

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Though I dont’ think sushi has patent rights, so maybe not

1:03
Bork: Would you be surprised if a leak came out that proved the MLB wants the Cubs to win the World Series this year?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Yes, because MLB is bad at leaks – if someone had said that, they’d already have leaked it by now I iimagine

1:04
did you know: george lucas, carrie fisher and glenn close are in hook?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: I knew the first two, but not Close

1:04
Ben: Really hope I sent this in, in time! Would you drop VMart or Calhoun for Dahl in a redraft? Which one? Thank you!

1:05
Dan Szymborski: If you’re leading, I would not. If you need some upside plays, I would

1:05
JTT: How annoyed are you that while you are sitting in front of your computer working, cistulli is most likely sitting in the sun drinking a beer and feeling inexplicably melancholy while watching a MAC division baseball tournament?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: The heat index is over 100 outside right now, I’d rather be sitting at my computer working with a beer.

1:06
HIllary: If Donald Trump was the GM of the Yankees, he would’ve built a wall around Yankee Stadium and then would file for bankruptcy when their fans and the opposing team wouldn’t be able to get into the stadium, causing the Yankees to lose all their revenue!

1:06
Bucket List: Laugh it up, Dan. As Yankees GM, Donald Trump will build that wall and force the Blue Jays to forfeit all games played in the US of A! He might also acknowledge that the Rays aren’t the Yankees AAAA club.

1:06
Zorn: So AJ Reed was not good first time up. Does this change your opinion of him going forward?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: No

1:06
mijo: what do you think of manfreds idea of limiting relievers to speed up the game … dumb right

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:07
Dan Szymborski: OK, I’ve got some work to finish up, so let’s finish this off with the Lightning ROund.

1:07
Dan Szymborski: You guys know the rules.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Umm, it won’t let me post my starred questions.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: So I can’t answer the off-topic ones before now.

1:08
Leif Erikson: Dr. Pepper is the best, right?

1:08
Dan Szymborski: No.

1:08
Matt: Heard Wikileaks is dropping 7,000 emails from ESPN today on how they tried to have Manfred change the mLB rules so that the Red Sox automatically win everything.

1:08
Bork: What are the chances that No Man’s Sky bombs?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Some. There’s always a chance when the expectations are this high.

1:09
Elton: Do you have a killer Jenga strategy? If so what is it?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Surreptitious table shaking.

1:09
Zorak: Even if MLB was found to want the Cubs to win this year, wouldn’t they still have to go out there and win the games? you know, score more runs than the opponent? How much could MLB really do to influence that?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that was necessarily implied.

1:09
Matt: To summarize my earlier off-topic post – This election cycle sure seems like an episode of South Park, no?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:09
JTT: So how about that DNC?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: I hate politics, so anything chaotic entertains me.

1:10
hjrrockies: should I be playing rimworld right now?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Are you at work? I don’t want you to get fired

1:10
EbenezerBatflip: No Man Sky is gonna be a disappointing to people who don’t know how to roleplay. Lots of people don’t seem to understand its an emergent roleplaying game with very little structure, many tears will be shed

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I like that kind of thing. I’ve got like 600 hours of CK2

1:10
JD: Who looks worse with the Chapman trade Cubs or Reds?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Reds

1:10
Dan Szymborski: oh wait, on topic AND chapman

1:11
Dan Szymborski: Mom insists on me and her driving up to Canada on a Monday to go to the Canadian version of Five Guys, the Good Guys. Up there, they serve a sandwich that’s just like a hamburger but it has two kinds of cheese on top and mom is insistent that we try it.

Then suddenly I’m up there in Canada but with Kat and not mom and these two guys won’t let us leave the parking lot so I keep having to beat them up. They’re bgoth very bad fighters, so I have to beat the crap out of them and then we leave.

Then it’s me and Alan and Mike still in Canada but we go to a pancake place. It’s this gigantic restaurant with multiple floors and on the etop level, there are desks to root around in. We help with the dishes before we go and it takes longer becasue there’s a piano. I play the slow movement from the beethoven pathetique for this old couple. Alan wants to get sheet music from the car, but I decide it’s time to leave because the old people left and the people near us didn’ tsem to be the tpe.

When I get out th

1:11
Dan Szymborski: there, I ask Alan for directions to get back to Baltimore but he’s completely unhelpful. He finds the way back to Wyoming and I was gettign seriously annoyed. He tells me then I need to be driving on hte left side of the street, which I do, but it nearly gets us a crash. We’re driving down this deserted by fancy road newar Parliament buildings, but then I wake up.

1:11
Dan Szymborski: You get a long dream for both on topic and chapman

1:12
Matt: On a sclare of potato to 52, how funny would it be if Mike Piazza was actually a pizza.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Zoinks

1:12
Bucket List: If Donald Trump was the GM of the Yankees, he would have traded Chapman to an expansion franchise that doesn’t even exist yet — creating jobs.

1:12
JTT: They had the creator of jenga on an episode of freaknomics and she said her strategy was to hold the tower with her elbows while she pulled out a piece. I know the rules “technically” say no hands, but that is a huge copout

1:12
Elton: Did you play the Witcher 3? I’m finally getting to it now and it’s pretty much the best thing I’ve ever played.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, just finished my second playthrough with Blood & Wine out

1:12
hjrrockies: it’s always sunny in the GOP http://youtube.com/watch?v=J6M_2fTACeI

1:12
Picayune: I think the Cubs World Series is now tarnished

1:12
LioneeR: I need a Ps4 game to occupy a bunch of time. Ideas?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: MLB the Show?

1:12
hjrrockies: livin’ in Utah, so no work today while we celebrate brigham young poking a staff into the ground and saying some words everyone misquotes.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: Best reason to get off work

1:13
Dan Szymborski: CAUGHT UP

1:13
Dan Szymborski: wait

1:13
EbenezerBatflip: Spoiler alert for new fans of the Witcher series, Witcher 2 is actually better than Witcher 3 ::audible gasps::

1:13
Dan Szymborski: I think 3 is better.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: NOW DONE

1:13
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone!

1:13
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and I am DSzymborski on Twitter

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/25/16 by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Dan Szymborski Baseball Chat Rules:

1) Don’t talk about baseball in April
2) Don’t talk about that big piece of baseball news last night or anything related to it
3) It depends.
4) Don’t talk about politics unless it is 20th century or earlier and someone is getting their ass kicked.