The Cubs, Chapman, and the New Price for an Elite Reliever
When a baseball trade happens, it’s common practice for folks to want a winner or a loser anointed right away. It’s only natural to desire an instant verdict, to immediately express an opinion. Truth is, it’s impossible to declare a winner or loser on the day of a trade. It might be impossible to do so until the careers of every player involved are finished. It might even take longer than that. It sure looks like the Blue Jays are going to win the Josh Donaldson trade, but what if Franklin Barreto turns into a Hall of Famer?
The expected deal between the New York Yankees and the Chicago Cubs is different. There’s external factors we don’t typically have to figure into a trade evaluation. Aroldis Chapman is likely heading to the Cubs. Some prospects will be going back to the Yankees, including a really good one. It’s interesting, strictly from a baseball perspective. Strictly from a baseball perspective, we won’t know who will have won or lost this trade for more than a decade. But this is one of those rare times when you can rightfully declare a winner or loser on the day of the trade, if inclined.
Aroldis Chapman’s been accused of choking a woman and firing eight shots in the garage of his home, for which he was suspended 30 games. I’ve since heard folks refer to him as a monster. You’d be hard-pressed to argue with that description if the police report is accurate. We enjoy sports because they provide us a necessary diversion from the terrors of the world and the tedium of daily life. It becomes harder to glean pleasure from the diversion when the diversion and the terrors begin to intertwine. The Chicago Cubs had a young man in their organization who, as far as we can tell, is an upstanding citizen with a bright future ahead of him, personally and professionally. They seem, in this case, to prefer the troubled man with the dark history. You could say the Cubs already lost this trade.
I know this is FanGraphs. I know you came here for baseball analysis. This is supposed to be the diversion from your favorite diversion. We’re getting to that. The real-life stuff is just so much more important, and it needs to be discussed. Front and center.
It’s difficult to transition back into the trivial stuff. Feels dirty. But that’s what you came here for. This is the best I can do.
Despite a month of mediocrity, the Cubs still look like the best team in baseball. They’ve got the most wins, the most expected future wins, and a run differential that sticks its tongue out while pointing and laughing at the rest of the run differentials. Despite a recent winning streak, the Yankees still look like an obvious seller. They’ve got worse than a one-in-10 shot of making the postseason with an aging roster that still features some intriguing soon-to-be free agents. Baseball-wise, Chapman is one of those intriguing soon-to-be free agents.
The Cubs certainly don’t have much need for upgrades in the position-player department, and the rotation moving forward still looks about as good as they come. That leaves the bullpen as the remaining area where the Cubs could meaningfully improve their odds of winning a World Series, and that’s what the trade deadline is all about, after all. You can’t say, if the deal for Chapman becomes official, that the Cubs aren’t more likely to win the World Series today than they were yesterday. They would have added one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. Maybe the best. The best team would be getting better.
The questions are: how much better? How much would those odds go up? And at what cost?
The cost sure looks hefty. Gleyber Torres is the big piece included in the deal. Torres is a 19-year-old out of Venezuela, a shortstop by trade with the tools to stick. Baseball America recently called him the 27th-overall prospect in the game. He’s a prospect chip likely worth somewhere around $50 million in surplus value. Chapman will throw 20 or 30 innings for the Cubs and hit the open market without draft-pick compensation.
When I speculated on the possibility of a complete Yankees teardown last week, I considered Torres as a potential starting point for an Andrew Miller trade, figuring Chapman’s value as a rental was too limited to command a prospect of Torres’ caliber. Once again, it appears as thought the anticipated market for an elite reliever was undersold. I used the Miller trade between Baltimore and Boston at the 2014 trade deadline as my baseline for a Chapman return. Miller was an impending free-agent left-handed reliever with a 44 FIP- and no off-field baggage. Chapman is currently an impending free-agent left-handed reliever with a 46 FIP- and his history. And, granted, a longer track record supporting his on-field performance.
Miller cost Baltimore Eduardo Rodriguez, BA’s No. 67 overall prospect, and at the time, it seemed like an overpay. We were surprised by that Miller return, and Chapman just cost far more than that. Maybe Torres’ age and distance from the majors somewhat suppresses his trade value relative to this prospect value, but Torres isn’t even the only piece heading out. It’s still a shocking return. We were surprised at what the Padres got for Craig Kimbrel this offseason. At what the Phillies recently received for Ken Giles. Hell, even at what Mike Montgomery just netted the Mariners. Safe to say, there’s a sizable gap between the public’s valuation of elite relief arms and the industry’s valuation. We’ve known this. Thing is, the gap seems to continue growing.
The Yankees are on the verge of turning a quartet of essentially non-prospects from seven months ago into one of the most valuable young assets in the prospect world in Torres, a pitcher who’s had success for them in the past in Adam Warren, another legitimate major league prospect in Billy McKinney, and more. You can read Eric Longenhagen’s scouting reports on all the prospects involved right here.
It looks like the kind of return we might’ve expected for two-and-a-half reasonably priced years of Miller. It’s the kind of return that forces us to once again re-evaluate our perception of a reliever’s trade value. The kind of return that forces a club like the Royals to think long and hard about selling what they’ve got at the back-end of their bullpen, and has to make the Yankees wonder what they could get for their lefty with real trade value. Even considering the possibility of the suspension that loomed over Chapman and suppressed his trade value in the offseason, the difference between what it cost the Yankees to acquire Chapman and what they’re about to receive for him is both staggering and puzzling.
As for the Cubs, they’re about to get what they need to increase their odds of winning a World Series in 2016 for a price they evidently feel comfortable paying. Chapman’s a truly dominant force, pitching with a new style that’s seen him cut his walk rate nearly in half. Between Chapman and Hector Rondon, the Cubs would have the best one-two punch of relievers of any playoff-bound team. They only had two reliable options in the bullpen — Rondon and Pedro Strop — and now they’d get a third. Doesn’t get much more reliable on the mound than Chapman. The Cubs are only asking six innings from their starters in the postseason, now. In a perfect world, they’d require a total of seven pitchers per playoff series — all remarkable arms. It doesn’t matter that the Cubs already had the highest World Series odds. They wanted the odds to be better, and now they will be.
It’s probably not worth worrying about the fact that Torres is a shortstop while the Yankees already have Didi Gregorius and Jorge Mateo, just as it’s illogical to consider Torres more expendable to the Cubs due to the presence of Addison Russell and Javier Baez. Torres’ value is Torres’ value regardless of his environment, and that value is sky-high. It’s not a problem that the Astros have both Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa. It’s not a problem that the Rangers have Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, and Jurickson Profar. The Cubs are glad to have Baez around even with Russell. None of Gregorius, Mateo, or Torres are sure things. If any of those three fail for whatever reason, the club will be glad to have the others. If all succeed, the Yankees either have three excellent infielders or an immensely valuable trade piece to patch another hole. Regardless of circumstance, adding a Gleyber Torres to your farm system can only help it, just as adding an Aroldis Chapman to your bullpen can only do the same in the quest for a World Series.
This whole deal boils down to several interesting discussions regarding differences in perception. The perception between future value for a club with a wide-open window and present value for that same club with a 107-year World Series drought. Perception regarding allocation of resources and the value of an elite reliever. Perception regarding the cost for marginal upgrades in unpredictable, short-series playoff baseball. Perception regarding the value of talent vs. character. It’s a lot to unpack. Probably more than any one person can handle.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
As a Reds fan, please excuse while I go cry in a corner.
If karma exists at all, the Yankees are going to get hit really, really hard for turning a major profit on being willing to invest in a lesser-evil Greg Hardy. If that rationalization helps, please go ahead and use it.
Nope. The Yankees are profit greatly from all this and are going to use this latest trade to stick it to the Red Sox for years. Cashman has hosed three other GMs so badly that it’s actually funny. Fortune favors the brave! Hail, Cashman, who made the deals everyone else was afraid to make!
Why does karma punish the Yankees for this.
They did nothing but see an opportunity and act.
And to act boldly, when other teams wet their pants and dithered.
It’s almost enough to want to make me want to be a Yankees fan.
You should have been crying anyway.
It’s a bit like the Shelby Miller trades. Sure, the Cardinals got Jason Heyward, but a year later Miller essentially turned into Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson. (Yes, I know there were a few pitchers involved, too.)
So, Starlin Castro, Torres, McKinney and someone else for 2 months of Chapman and 4 months of Adam Warren?
Cashman loves to see Theo call.
Theo’s slamming the Sox by winning a World Series this year AND making the 2019+ Yankees stronger. He’s pretty smart.
Definitely seems like an overpay for Chapman, still totally fine with the Castro deal even with Warren going back, he’s basically a replacement level player.
It’s a drastic overpay. I’m aghast.
A bad Adam Warren at that
Worst rental overpay since Billy Beane gave Addison Russell away.
It wasn’t a rental and Samardzija was flipped for 4 players one has replaced Russell, it is a pity Hammel turned into a big pile of nothing because had he done his job it actually was okay.
Not like McKinney will amount to more than a fill in and Dan Streily lol
This is worse as the Cubs get nothing back
The Cubs got Addison Russell for 6 years…Torres could be great but there’s more doubt in his future than Russell’s even at the time. A top 5 prospect is very different from a top 30 prospect
Glad you brought up negative surplus castro who has 3 yrs 32 mil left after this year. Its an overpay but castro isn’t worth the money at this point.
This is just stupid for the cubs.
Ehh I don’t think so. It’s all relative costs. The Cubs have enough major league talent, young enough, and enough in their system to part with this SS and others, without much repercussion. If they were desperate for young, controllable, major league ready talent… I’d agree this was really bad.
Crazy haul, and kudos for bringing up Chapman’s baggage. While we don’t know exactly what else happened during that incident, the fact that gunshots were fired into the wall in its immediate aftermath is incredibly disturbing.
No need for passive voice: Chapman admitted that he fired the gun. Which, if he was angry enough to do that–eight times, sufficiently out of control that one shot went through a window, and punching his car window to get to the gun in the first place–I don’t doubt he was also angry enough to assault his girlfriend.
Oh, he certainly was angry enough to assault her.
That’s why, according to every witness and the police investigation, he shot up his garage instead.
Depends on your perspective…taking out your anger on walls rather than people is generally a positive for anger management, if you didn’t use a gun.
*especially if you use a gun
So true rx5, but holy crap, bullets go through walls and could kill people too. Fists or bats don’t.
Which is exactly how I’m looking at it. Someone needs to teach him a better way to deal with his feelings, but thank God he didn’t hit her.
that is a ridiculous assumption. He has no previous history of violence to ANYONE. In fact, had he wanted to do that, he would not have simply fired it into the wall.
He missed the wall once too.
Even if you assume he didn’t hurt her, he did handle the gun recklessly, not to mention he used his pitching hand to punch the car window. Imagine him blowing a save in September and punching something in the locker room, knocking him out for the rest of the year.
That actually happens to players plenty often.
I know. Kevin Brown, Drew Storen, etc. I think Chapman is one of the players most likely to do it next.
And the fact that he did that instead of striking her is incredibly fortunate.
My concern, having grown up around firearms and knowing that they’re never supposed to be fired in anger (unless you’re saving someone’s life), is that someone who does that is a serious risk to fire that weapon at someone later on.
I’ve got over fifty years of firearms experience, and I don’t buy that for a second. If he was that angry and he still shot at the wall, that means that even when crazy angry he still values and respects human life.
According to your rationale, no one who hasn’t already shot someone is a significant risk to shoot someone in the future. People who don’t own firearms are extremely unlikely to shoot anyone. People who own firearms yet employ them responsibly are very unlikely to shoot someone. People who own firearms and employ them recklessly are unlikely to shoot someone. People who own firearms and shoot them when angry are a significant risk to shoot someone. It’s all a matter of degrees. Hopefully Chapman has learned his lesson and is a model citizen from here on out, but what he did is about as big as red flags get.
But he choked her instead. Isn’t that worse than striking her?
…did you read the police report?
He grabbed her by the throat, then stopped, presumably realizing just how much what he was about to do would fuck up his life.
Absolute prick, but I’ll bet you anything that Nicole Holder wishes Greg Hardy had that much self-control.
He didn’t choke her. He didn’t shoot her. All he did was grab her by the throat, stop, realize he was doing a bad thing and then go find another way to release his anger on inanimate objects. He’s not a monster at all. He could have easily choked her or shot her, but he chose to do neither. He’s not a monster, just a man with serious anger issues who still values human life. It’s no wonder that no charges were pressed. I will cheer for his success in Chicago, even if I think that the Cubs severely and drastically overpaid for his rental.
Haha, oh is that all?
Maybe some insulation for Zobrist would be nice. He’s been nearly useless over last month with the bat. Injury?
Insulation would keep him cold. You’d be better off insulating Rizzo or Bryant.
It’s summer.
Insulation works both ways. Zobrist = cold, outside = hot, insulating Zobrist from the heat would keep him cold.
He was playing way over his head the first few months this year. Things are just evening out.
Can we get a comparison between what Chapman was traded for by both the Yankees and Reds? (once the deal is done). This has to rank as one of the better buy low sell high flips in recent memory.
Reds are looking ethically smart for dumping the low character guy. But man, Torres would have looked awesome in Cincinnati…
It’s just a difficult comparison to make, because Chapman’s value was wildly different seven months ago than it is now. Honestly, I’m not sure how much utility is to making the comparison at all. It’s almost like two different players.
August, that is precisely the point — to somewhat quantify just how big the difference is as a way of better understanding the dynamics in play.
Don’t know if I agree about the value difference. I think chapman’s value was very similar, the Yankees just capitalized on a panicked front office dumping a guy after a botched trade to LA. As a Reds fan I’m just looking for a way to quantify my misery and begin to introduce WARGM (Wins Above Replacemrnt General Manager) as a valuable tool for suffering franchcizes.
Watching the Reds hold onto Frazier and Chapman until they were worth the absolute lowest value makes me think we are waaaaay to the left of the bell curve. And also not trust the ownership to handle the Bruce/potential Cozart trade properly either. The only thing worse than the Reds team is the Reds management.
The Dodgers really screwed themselves by not trading for him.
How so though? What’s led to a chance in his value? He’s getting the same results he always has. And he still did the things he was accused of doing 7 months ago. When they traded him, they already had word that he wasn’t going to be charged by the police. Now teams just don’t care, because a.) it’s hasn’t been in the news in a while b) they have more concrete World Series dreams. Which is kind of messed up, but also pretty predictable.
It seems to me his value should have tanked since the first trade, he was suspended for 30 days, so he still hits free agency at the end of this year. When the Yankees picked him up, there was a real chance they’d get him for a year and a half rather than only part of one year.
Now they’re selling the remaining less than half of their less than one year, for far more than they paid.
The issue was the unknown of the suspension which meant that if it was a one year ban, the Reds get no value. If it was half the year they pay 5 million and are severely limited in trade possibility while being out 5 mil. This essentially worked out perfectly for the Yankees who could afford to take on risk while the Reds couldn’t. Smart play by Cashman again.
I’m almost certain that what you’re saying about the suspension is wrong.
A 1-year ban would have meant that Chapman also didn’t get credit for the year of service time and therefore wouldn’t have been a free agent after this year. He’d still have been under team control for the 2017 season if his suspension had been for a season or half a season. Here’s the relevant quote from an article at MLB.com: “Had [Chapman’s] suspension been for 46 or more games, it would have delayed his free agency by denying him the necessary service time.” ( http://m.mlb.com/news/article/165860226/yankees-aroldis-chapman-suspended-30-games/ )
Dayton Moore should now be on the phone trying to trade every reliever he has.
Unless the Royals should be buyers (sort of).
Maybe a reliever will finally make the trade value list next year. Elite relievers are bringing back insane returns.
I doubt it. Too hard to project a reliever out more than 2-3 years. There were only a couple guys on the list who had < 4 years team control remaining, and they tended to be HoF level performers like McCutcheon.
I agree the return is insane for a reliever, but I don't think this return would get you a conversation with any teams who own players on the trade value list.
Yankees just sold 30 innings of Chapman for two top 100 prospects. What do you think they would demand for Dellin Betances?
I agree there aren’t many relievers that would qualify and I’m not saying they should be in the top 40. We’ll see if anyone on the trade value list gets moved but after seeing what the Yanks just landed for Chapman I can see 4+ years of Dellin Betances going for about the same price as 4 years of Julio Teheran or 3 years of Carlos Martinez. Teams have shown they are willing to part with legitimate prospects in exchange for shutdown relievers.
Certain teams in certain situations. They need a likely chance of winning the World Series, holes in the bullpen, excess minor league talent. How many teams fit the bill? Indians maybe, Nationals maybe, Rangers maybe. That seems to be it.
According to the FG scouting report, McKinney has a lot of question marks. It seems all his power has dried up now he’s hit Double A. This trade is mainly about Torres, sending Warren back, and two wild cards. Not such an amazing haul, when you consider Torres is pretty far from the majors. Unlike other sports, draft order and early evaluations don’t really predict future performance too accurately. Even Triple A sure fire prospects fail too launch frequently, never mind guys in A ball. Jesus Montero, anyone?
I’m going to disagree, for the following reason:
It seems clear that the short term/in-season value of a RP is higher than expected, yes. But the player in the trade value charts would still merit returns above even this sort of trade (and this is a big, willing overpay, and the biggest overpay of all doesn’t completely set the market). That’s because the players who make the trade value list tend to be more valuable than ANY player who would be sold for the short term, as they often bring a lot more control with them.
In other words, RPs are more valuable than expected when sold in a trade-deadline type move, but when it comes to broader team-building (the kind of move in which a top trade value player would be included) they still lack value relative to excellent pieces at other spots.
but what if Franklin Barreto turns into a Hall of Famer?
Doesn’t matter, because he would be traded before he does.
If Barreto turns into a Hall of Famer I’ll eat my cap and glove.
(If he doesn’t, I also get to eat the rest of my uniform.)
The latter isn’t much of a threat if Sale is anywhere near by.
Then I’ll eat Barreto’s uniform. And a bunch of burritos too.
Is a burrito’s uniform the tortilla?
Just make sure to get Chris Sale to cut them up for you, first. Easier to digest.
The deal was apparently being held up contingent on the Cubs agreeing to an extension with Chapman, so there’s that.
And then there’s the fact that Torres, Warren, McKinney and the other guy have been arrested and charged exactly as many times as Chapman has. The (well-deserved) suspension had far more to do with his decision to take out his anger by shooting up his garage than it did his stopping himself before he hit his wife.
Even if you have “heard folks refer to him as a monster.”
Yeah, what folks have referred to him as a monster? Blowhards like us? Former teammates? Front office people privy to background research done on him?
Not exactly the only “weird” happening with him. I can recall the incident in Pittsburgh with his stripper girlfriend trying to stage a robbery and the lawsuit against him for supposedly working with the Cuban Govt to get a guy detained and tortured. Nothing directly incriminating, but lots of smoke.
How about his assault on Cuban pastries?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2013/05/20/pastries-to-blame-for-aroldis-chapmans-implosion/2343303/
Recruiter: Have you ever been convicted of a felony or a misdemeanor? That’s robbery, rape, car theft, that sort of thing.
John Winger: Convicted? No.
Russell Ziskey: Never convicted.
Was she within earshot of the gunshots? If so, that is still a classic case of abuse. Firing a gun over and over immediately after coming close to assaulting someone is as clear a threat as can be made. If he went left and went somewhere removed from her, then it is just a bad sign for future encounters, and is very stupid, but isn’t an actual threat.
A relievers real value is in the postseason. Not the regular season.
I am not sure what signing an extension has anything to do with whether to trade for a player. They could sign the player in the offseason without giving up any prospect.
But they would be competing with every other team that wanted to sign him at that point. Since he was on record as saying he wanted to re-sign with the Yankees if they traded him, it would’ve been unlikely the Cubs could have signed him next year. So it absolutely has to do with whether to trade for a player. Cleveland wouldn’t be willing to give up what the Cubs did for Chapman because they wouldn’t have the financial resources to even afford to extend him if they and he wanted an extension.
The likelihood of an extension has very little impact on the price the acquiring team will pay for a rental. The reason is that the possibility of an extension is very remote with the new team that the player did not choose, 6.5 years into service time. The only reasonable chance for an extension is if the player likes the new city so much that he is willing to forfeit his chance-of-a-lifetime-for-most-guys free agency and give a hometown discount. Or if the acquiring team is willing to pay a premium above market value in order to buy out the player’s free agent right – which is no benefit to the team.
As an example, can you name one high profile rental who signed an extension with his new team before hitting free agency? I am sure it has happened, and it certainly could happen in the future. But the price of a rental is young players, and the price of an extension is money, and they are two separate transactions that do not have much to do with one another. The Cubs almost certainly did not outbid Cleveland for any reason related to a possible extension.
Matt Holliday? Oh, he re-upped with the Cardinals as a free agent, never mind.
All this for a reliever with a history of choking.
Theo and Jed now getting hourly calls from Mike Rizzo.
Joe Sheehan made a really strong point on Effectively Wild a few weeks ago that the Cubs could win 100 games every year for the next five years, and if they don’t win a title, they’ll be viewed as failures. By the time Torres and McKinney are called up, at least half this current Cubs team will be gone – at a certain point, you push your chips in.
Now, it’d be hard to justify this move for any other team, but as long as the asking price for Miller or Wade Davis was Schwarber, and as long as the Nationals were willing to trade Joe Ross and Erik Fedde, what else is Theo supposed to do? Roll with Mike Montgomery as the top LHP in the pen, and face Chapman in the NLDS/NLCS?
This. It’s not a trade based only on Chapman’s direct value – it’s a trade keeping him out of the enemy’s (Nationals) highly motivated hands. It doubles Chapman’s value to the Cubs this year. Also, they get peak Chapman with no decline phase – it’s a half year contract with no decline years to amortize.
In a 2-team league it would double Chapman’s value. Excepting of course if, even then, said team could just then trade for Miller instead.
But trading for Miller deprives you of a 2016 or 2017 asset.
Nationals weren’t willing to part with anyone of moderate value it seems. A package headlined by a 23-year-old in A+? I don’t think they were much of a threat.
That’s a new way to look at the bright side of trading for a rental player: we only have him for a few months so there’s no decline phase!
The point, though, is that Chapman for 2 months plus the playoffs doesn’t move the odds of the Cubs winning the World Series that much.
Dan Szymborski said in his chat today that his calculation is that getting Chapman improves the Cubs’ chance of winning the World Series this year by about 1%. Looking at the Fangraphs playoff odds, that means moving it up from about 19% to 20%.
I’m confident that Chapman instead going to a team that the Cubs may or may not even play during the postseason would hardly move that 1% calculation.
This kind of total World Series odds analysis strikes me as less applicable to this specific situation where the Cubs’ odds of making the playoffs are already quite high. I’d wager that the Cubs’ thinking is more that, in the 45 possible innings in the NLDS and/or 63 possible innings of the NLCS/WS, they can now receive up to 5 and 7 innings of Chapman pitching, whereas last season those innings were given to Trevor Cahill, Clayton Richard, and the like.
I don’t know how to convert that upgrade into a specific percentage chance of winning increase, but I have to believe that Chapman over Cahill for ~11% of a total series moves the needle more than a single percentage point.
I disagree with your math pretty much all the way around.
First, the value of Chapman for the Cubs should actually be LESS, not more, because the Cubs already have such good odds of winning the division. Fangraphs has the odds of the Cubs winning the division at a bit over 94%, with a 97% chance of making it to the divisional playoff round. That’s hardly surprising – they’re a very good team with a 7.5 game lead in the division. It means, though, that it’s unlikely for Chapman’s regular season value to matter much if any to the Cubs. They already have such a good chance of winning the division that the marginal win or two expected from Chapman isn’t likely to make a difference in the division race.
Second, you are being aggressive in your assumption of how much Chapman should be projected to pitch in the playoffs. You are assuming long series with a lot of close games in saying that he’ll pitch that much. Perhaps that will happen, but it shouldn’t be the base assumption. Look at Mariano Rivera’s history, for example. Rivera was obviously very successful in the post-season and therefore heavily used for a reliever. For his career he pitched 56 innings in 16 ALDS’s (3 1/2 innings average per ALDS), 48.2 innings in 9 ALCS’s (just under 5 1/2 innings average per ALCS), and 36.1 innings in 7 World Series (just over 5 innings per World Series). Rivera averaged about 1 1/2 innings per postseason game in which he appeared, so he made long appearances by modern closer standards for him to get to that number. So your assumption of 12 innings for Chapman between the NLDS and NLCS is well above what he’s likely to actually pitch, whether that’s due to a short series or some not very close games (in either case that the Cubs might win or lose).
Third, it’s unclear that Chapman will actually be taking post-season innings from Cahill (or a Cahill-quality player). The Cubs seem to have lots of relief pitchers in between Chapman and Cahill who would handle all but low leverage innings in the playoffs. Not just Rondon and Strop, but also Mike Montgomery, Edwards, possibly Nathan, and whichever starting pitcher is moved to the bullpen in the playoffs. So the reliever who would otherwise be pitching in the playoffs is likely somewhat better than Cahill has been this year.
So keep going through this math, and the playoff difference just isn’t that big. You can reasonably expect maybe 3-4 innings in the NLDS. You’ll be using Chapman (2.0 to 2.5 FIP by history and projections) to push out the worst middle guy who pitches in high leverage games. That looks to be somewhere in the range of a 3.0 to 4.0 FIP reliever going by history and projections for Edwards, Montgomery, and Nathan. Then go through similar math if the team makes the NLCS and World Series, and Chapman is realistically expected to pitch maybe 5-6 innings in each of these series.
Add that all up, and what’s the expected marginal improvement with Chapman? Looks like less than 1 run in a best of 5 NLDS and less than 1.5 runs in a best of 7 NLCS or World Series. It’s simply not a lot. It goes back to the point made by analytically-minded writers at sites like Fangraphs that people really overestimate the value difference between “great” relievers (which Chapman is) and merely “good” relievers.
I disagree with you because marginal wins are much, much more valuable to a team like the Cubs than many others. Plus, it’s not clear how leverage affects value. Teams seem to value it a lot more than the public given the recent trades we’ve seen. The public is missing something that teams see, obviously. It has happened in trade after trade over the past year. I don’t have the time to research it. Someone will eventually.
Anyways, there has been much research on marginal wins including articles on this site. I’m too lazy to look them up, but google “marginal win” and fangraphs. I’m sure Beyond the Box Score or any number of websites have similar articles.
“I disagree with you because marginal wins are much, much more valuable to a team like the Cubs than many others.”
Marginal wins are clearly more valuable to the Cubs than to teams like the Reds or Brewers that are clearly out of the playoff race.
The highest marginal value wins, though, are for teams right on the cusp of winning their respective divisions. It’s teams like the Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, Dodgers, and Giants that are around a 50% or so chance of winning the division (and also in a competitive wild card race if they don’t end up winning the division).
For a team with about a 95% chance of winning its division, adding a player for 1-2 marginal regular season wins simply isn’t that valuable. The overwhelming likelihood is that those wins won’t matter.
I read this site regularly, Thrasius, and I don’t particularly appreciate a condescending suggestion that I read up to understand marginal wins. I do recommend that you take a look at Dan Szymborski’s Twitter feed from the last day, which provides plenty of good thoughts on (i) the value of marginal wins, (ii) maximizing the chance of winning a World Series, and (iii) just how big of a difference good vs. great bullpen quality does (or doesn’t) make.
Even with teams valuing closers higher than the public, there’s still a question of comparative value for Chapman as a rental.
The two expensive-looking trades for Kimbrel came with 3 or 4 years of team control. The expensive-looking trade for Ken Giles came with 5 years of team control, including two years of league minimum salary. Chapman is being acquired as a 3 month rental.
You can buy into teams valuing closers more due to leverage and still question the package for Chapman.
You reference last Cahill and Richard from last year. The Cubs are certainly better with Chapman, but the problem is that the Cubs would still lose to the Mets last year, and still likely get swept, even if they had Chapman. Which is an example of why the average upgrade is small as a result of increasing bench strength.
There is no doubt that the Cubs need to replace at least Richard, and maybe even Cahill, So really, the comparison for 2016 is Chapman vs whomever else they might have used. Certainly Chapman is better than whomever else they might acquire, but the difference may well be smaller than the difference assuming Richard and Cahill and not worth the opportunity cost of trading Torres for a larger need in the near future.
Thanks for framing the article the way you did. It’s important to zoom out sometimes, before we zoom back in, and domestic violence is one of those issues we shouldn’t lose sight of, regardless of context.
Wow, as a Red Sox fan this doesn’t make me feel nearly as bad about the Kimbrel trade now. It seems that relief pitchers are somehow now seen as more valuable than starters in many trades. Pomeranz drew one prospect of Torres’ caliber and Boston has him through 2018. In what world does this trade even remotely make sense from Chicagos perspective? And if they don’t win it all this year they’ve sacrificed their chances of winning it in the future.
The handful of top relievers versus good-not-great (either because of skill or durability questions) for teams that are a near guaranteed to make the post season and have holes in the bullpen? Makes sense.
Saying “relievers are more valuable than starters” doesn’t mean much without more context. Which starters? Which relievers? Which teams? Is Fernando Rodney more valuable than Chris Sale to the Braves? Of course not. Is Chapman more valuable than Pomeranz to the Cubs? Yeah.
Maybe the A’s would have received more for Pomeranz if they converted him to the bullpen before they traded him!! I think I’m kidding.
Aroldis Chapman is better on a per-year basis than Pomeranz even before you account for how WAR undervalues relievers.
Not when you account for the difference in innings and the years of team control.
…huh?
When I said “a per-year basis,” that meant I was talking about, you know, the yearly production, not accounting for team control.
Further: Aroldis Chapman made his full-season debut in 2011. Drew Pomeranz made his in 2012.
Aroldis Chapman had been worth 12.8 fWAR over that span, Drew Pomeranz has been worth 5.7.
They are not close on a per-year basis, even when you base your judgment on counting stats like WAR, that account for the difference in innings pitched.
Seriously, though, you might find it useful to spend ten seconds looking at the players’ FanGraphs pages before talking about a subject you’re clearly unfamiliar with.
Chapman is certainly better than Pomeranz. For one inning, or maybe even two, Chapman may be the best pitcher on the planet. But who is “better” is not the issue. The issue is who has a greater impact on winning over time.
And if the Cubs extend him, as is expected, they get a player who helps them win more over time, as well.
Chapman is a much better player than Pomeranz, on both a per-inning and per-season basis. He’s going to cost more.
They will have signed a free agent, just like they could have if they hadn’t made this trade. Besides, do you really want to sign a closer to a big money deal as he’s going into his age 29 year?
Don’t think you’ll find much support for the Pomeranz per season claim. As a reliever Chapman was better, but Pomeranz the successful starter is pretty clearly worth more.
So, all you need to do is throw out 80% of the sample size of Pomeranz’s seasonal value to make the argument that he’s more valuable on a per-season basis?
Why didn’t I think of that before?!!!
Am I allowed to throw out 80% of the data with every player, or only when I say something self-evidently incorrect and need to cover my ass quickly?
Thanks for the great overview. I want to address the “..the Cubs have already lost the trade” As a man who has been a victim of a false report by a woman, I’d like to point out a few things.
– Chapman was not arrested. In fact police said they could NOT make an arrest because of the numerous conflicting reports. THIS is very important. in this day an age, police arrest IMMEDIATELY to protect the woman and in part because of the liability of the department. Yes – there are exceptions, but with SO MANY people at a party, you have to wonder why would the police risk accusations that they DID NOT arrest him with so many witnesses – when he could possibly harm or even kill her later. It just doesn’t make sense.
– As we learned from the Duke Lacrosse case, an accusation of violence isn’t necessarily a fact. Yes, men can be violent but women can be crazy. Few realize that women are aggressors in over 40% of domestic violence cases. It’s not convenient for the media to discuss this fact, but true. In my experience, the aggression was TOTALLY on her side, but the presumption was on hers. She even tried to inflict damage after the fact to make it look like me. (She was taken into custody when it was clear my scratches, bruises and surroundings EXACTLY corroborated my story, but hers made no sense.) I’m not saying this is true in Chapman’s case. Maybe he is a POS that needs to be banned from baseball, but with no other history like this I’m not one to completely believe everything I read. Don’t forget the media pressure for MLB to do something by the domestic violence advocates, even WITHOUT due process.
– Finally, we forget that people DO change. As I’ve learned since my 20’s – you become like the people you associate with. I don’t know who he hung out with in (or outside of) the Reds organization, but very few people are sullen angry self-destructing narcissists. Chapman has no lasting evidence of this previously that I’m aware of. You don’t think that the influence of Joe Maddon, David Ross, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant might not have a POSITIVE influence on him? I think it’s entirely possible that he may grow more in 4 months than he has in the past 4 years.
If he was arrested and convicted – I’d have a completely different view. But Theo and Jed aren’t guys who take this clubhouse character thing lightly. In fact they’ve been ENTIRELY consistent on the importance of this. So given what we know – I’m willing to extend him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.
More 104 mph pitches than walks?? I’m sure willing to give it a shot if there is any chance he’s actually a good kid that was caught in a bad circumstance.
how dare you
How smart are you
How dumb am I
Don’t count any
Of my advice
No charges were filed because the woman refused to cooperate, which might happen because the accused is crazy enough to fire a handgun in the garage of his residence immediately after said incident.
that is not what the police report says. and yes – you are allowed to discharge a firearm on your property without threat of prosecution in America.
Not necessarily, as there are many municipal ordinances that ban doing so. Furthermore, it’s not just a question of legality. Chapman not being charged does not in any way prevent what he did from being reckless, foolish, and concerning.
Once again you are arguing without fact. There was no ordinance as such where he lived and he was not “charged” for violating anything of the sort. I’m embarrassed so many “upvoted” such an intellectually porous argument.
it seems there is a significant part of our society that wants to micromanage everyone’s life when it’s none of their dam* business. Perhaps you’d care to give us a chronology of your taxes, and personal life in detail so we can all scrutinize you and pass judgement on something we know nothing about.
When bullets are fired, it becomes our damn business.
Chicago is one of the many cities which do not allow you to fire a gun on your property without cause.
And, to your original point, the Cubs lost the trade already just because they traded so much to get 2 months of a reliever’s time. That’s especially true when you consider ho much cheaper he was a few months ago.
“Due to conflicting stories, lack of cooperation by the victim and witnesses, no physical injuries, and the fact that Mr. Chapman fired his gun in a closed garage with no one present, there is insufficient evidence to charge him with a crime.”
Again, while the facts of the altercation itself are disputed by the two sides, what is not disputed is that in the immediate aftermath of the altercation Chapman fired a handgun eight times into his garage. There is no excuse for that.
You’re ridiculous. A person has a right to do whatever they want on their own property that doesn’t hurt anyone else. Perhaps you are mistaken that this occurred in communist Cuba.
Is that your party platform or a fever dream?
No actually you don’t have a right to fire a weapon inside city limits in 99% of the US. It is the right to bear arms not the right to erratically fire guns when you are pissed.
You have that right where I live, and lots of other places I have lived and been to.
Wow. You need to go back to school on a lot of things. First, firing a gun in a city for anything other than self defense is and always has been illegal because of the potential for harm (and annoyance) to your neighbors. Second, this has nothing to do which communism. Ironically you’d be much more likely to be able to do that in communist Cuba.
As a man who has had an automatic garage door “mysteriously” close on my neck, refuse to open during a power outage unless physical force was applied, and refuse to accept mail through its slot at the most inopportune times, I’d like to point out a few things:
– the bullets fired inside my garage were not meant to strike anything outside the garage. I can’t be held responsible for “things” or “people” moving outside my field of vision.
– remove the backup battery from the door opener before discharging a round into it. Battery acid is a serious thing and should be handled with care at all times.
– a closed garage door is a perfect surface to hang a “NRA Official Silhouette Target B-34”. It was asking for it.
There is no need for an excuse. You’re attempting to blur the lines between the accusation of a heinous crime and something surely unusual and possibly very reckless, but which in no way proves the validity of the accusation. These are exactly the kind of specious, witch-hunt tactics that are used to insinuate and defame and punish outside the legal process, and they’re wrong.
If Chapman had fired his handgun in his garage but had not been accused of domestic assault, it would be a quirky, Bill Lee-esque (though of course updated to a far less gentle time) story of how weird, privileged and kind of crazy professional athletes are.
But he was, and he fired his handgun in the immediate aftermath of that altercation with the alleged victim still in the vicinity (although reportedly outside the house). I can’t say if he intended those shots to be an implied threat or not, but they could easily be perceived as such.
I find it impossible to believe that a woman in this situation would not feel threatened.
I think it is a bit sick that you have so many downvotes. False assault accusations are no joke and should be treated as seriously as actual assault accusations.
The poster wrote about a false assault accusation in his life. Are people claiming that Chapman’s situation is a false assault accusation? Where’s the evidence of that?
Definition of “violence” : behavior involving physical force intended to hurt, damage, or kill someone or something.
Legal definition: “the unlawful exercise of physical force or intimidation by the exhibition of such force.”
The firearm discharge could be considered an act of violence and in this circumstance, possibly for the purpose of intimidation and is worthy of discussion.
Discharging anger by discharging a weapon? Yeah, that seems like an indicator of possible future violent behavior if unchecked.
“I’m sure willing to give it a shot if there is any chance he’s actually a good kid that was caught in a bad circumstance.”
We totally agree! – Head coaches of Baylor, Tennessee, Florida State, Miami, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Auburn, Mississippi St., Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Michigan St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, and…and…
Yes – let’s make light of the dozens of athletes accused of crimes who were later exonerated but had their lives torn apart by those like this author who rush to judgement. To name a few:
Giants defensive lineman Jay Bromley was accused of attempted rape and vehicular assault after engaging in sexual activity with a woman on Jan. 31. Police now believe he was falsely accused by a woman seeking money.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/another-pro-athlete-appears-to-have-been-falsely-accused-of-rape/article/2582293
_____________________
A young man falsely accused of rape during college was recently cleared by the courts. A father and mother can breathe again as their 24-year-old son applies to grad schools, his bachelor’s degree earned and his season of turmoil behind him.
But for the Mock family of North Carolina, getting to the place they’re at now had a steep price. Careers ruined. Dreams dashed. Athletic glory denied.
C.D. Mock said he believes he recently lost his job as wrestling coach at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill in part because of his son’s ordeal.
As for Corey Mock, he enrolled at the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga a talented wrestler, and going into his senior year last fall was ranked fourth in the nation. It was set to be one the most exciting, challenging and fulfilling years of his life.
http://www.thecollegefix.com/post/24688/
_____________________________
Dennis Godfrey
Falsely Accused
Dennis takes us through his Job like experience of being falsely accused of rape and sexual assault. He brings us into the depths of the pain, spiritual warfare, confusion, doubting God, thoughts of suicide, the ruining of his name and his cries to God. This test of his character brought him through the valley and into the peaks where Jesus used others to help him go through such an incredibly painful experience and God showed himself faithful in the trial.
http://everyathlete.org/struggle/Falsely-Accused
_____________________________________
Duke Lacrosse players
____________________________
The woman who falsely accused Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch of assault could soon be facing those consequences.
Via SeattlePI.com, the Bellevue Police Department released a statement on Thursday night confirming that Lynch had “no involvement” in the case, and that probable cause exists to believe that the alleged victim violated Washington law that prohibits “making a false or misleading statement to a public servant.”
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/03/woman-who-falsely-accused-marshawn-lynch-may-face-charges/
Hey, I’m with you on the chances for exoneration and the rush to judgment by the public, but this is not the guy you want to go to extremes to defend. Its not his only brush with the law.
How about the thousands or rapes that are not investigated or are brushed off? I’d like to see those taken seriously, as well.
what is this garbage? i mean the fact that you try to rationalize giving a person who after a heated argument, and admitting to physically assaulting his partner (read the report, specifically the part where it says he admitted to poking her which caused her to fall backwards, remember that this is a 6’4″ 215lb professional athlete, if there is force on his part it is definitely enough to do harm) who then in a rage took a firearm, a tool made for the purpose of killing, and shot it off well within earshot of other people, including the person he had assaulted who was already hiding in the bushes for fear of their personal well-being, by saying ‘well he is physically/athletically gifted so he probably is a good guy’ says everything about your moral fortitude. jfc like ok if women are aggressors 40% then who is the aggressor the other 60%? this is a systemic problem, and perhaps we should be comparing death tolls. but that’s besides the fact that domestic violence is not okay regardless of who the aggressor is. not to mention, if the party was at chapman’s residence and it was populated by his friends, there’s enough motive on their part to give a version of the story which reduces or absolves him of blame, if their his friends/entourage, theyre going to try to protect him, especially if his friends have the same type of mentality he does. and another thing that doesn’t make sense is how little sense you have of the circumstances surrounding this case. despite his violent temperament, i’m sure chapman understands quite well how if after the police arrival even without an arrest, if he had proceeding to harm or kill her later, not only does it completely back up the accusation against him but he loses all credibility and would definitely be suspect number one in that case. i’m sure he has enough sense to know he doesn’t want a murder case on him.
It’s worth noting that the Yankees have extra leverage this season – they own the 2 best (by far) relievers on the trading block. Next best options are Smith and maybe a struggling Robertson? The Cubs aren’t able to hang up the phone and go for option 1b because the Yankees have him as well.
I wonder what the Orioles could get for Britton, Brach, and O’Day.
With the Yankees just setting the market for elite RPs this trade season, wouldn’t they be crazy to NOT trade Miller? This is almost a move out of dynasty league baseball.
Not how a very finite market like this works. The Yankees just reduced the market for Miller by taking out the most motivated buyer.
This is true, but the Yankees also reduced the supply of relievers by trading Chapman.
chisportsfan is correct–read the police reports. There was no physical evidence of any assault, including the alleged choking. There was also nothing illegal (and hence no charges) with respect to the firearm, which Chapman lawfully owned (if I remember correctly). That Chapman took out his aggression on his own stuff seems laudable. Would it be better if he hadn’t felt the need to break stuff at all? Definitely, but on the scale of terrible crimes, using your own garage as a stressball doesn’t rank that high.
Domestic violence is a terrible thing. So is falsely accusing someone of domestic violence. Those are not mutually exclusive statements.
She didn’t falsely accuse him. They called the cops because he went off, and it was a good idea. Luckily, he shot his garage instead of punching her, so there wasn’t anything to arrest him for when the cops arrived. Unfortunately. he didn’t punch a pillow instead, because he’s an asshole.
Nice job of cherry picking your examples Augie “Miller cost Baltimore Eduardo Rodriguez, BA’s No. 67 overall prospect, and at the time, it seemed like an overpay. We were surprised by that Miller return, and Chapman just cost far more than that.”
2 classic types of ‘mark’: a desperate buyer who just HAS TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES THIS VERY YEAR, DADGUMMIT!!! And someone chasing the latest hot fad, how relievers are now so very key to post-season success because of what the Royals did the whole 2 last post-seasons.
If you think that having a shut down bullpen is a new fad then I would suggest you haven’t really been watching baseball for the past 20 years or so.
I don’t know about chasing a fad, but their bullpen has been kind of weak this year.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
I marvel at your translation machine’s functionality
The cherry on top of this deal is getting Warren back. Sure, he’s no Chapman, but he can slide into the 7th while Betances/Miller jump up an innings..and the yanks still have a dominate back end of bullpen..
Alternatively, they can shop Nova, Eovaldi, or Pineda with Warren easily filling in.
HUGE CASHMAN, F-ING HUGE!!!!
I don’t know what evil lurks in the heart of Anthony Rizzo or Jake Arietta or Kris Bryant any more than I know what’s in Chapman’s heart. But I do know that Chapman was accused of choking his girlfriend and admitted to arguing with his girlfriend and shooting a gun eight times as a part of it and that he said that he didn’t do anything wrong afterwards.
I love rooting for the Cubs. They seem like decent guys, as well as being phenomenally good at baseball. I admit that Chapman would be an upgrade at the back end of the bullpen. Notwithstanding the overpay in prospects, I still don’t want him. I don’t want to be cheering for him to get the last out of the World Series, and I’m willing to accept the possibility that Rondon gives up a homer in that role (like he did yesterday) rather than the slightly higher possibility that Chapman won’t.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/05/09/yankees-aroldis-chapman-back-from-domestic-violence-suspension-i-didnt-do-anything/
What did he do wrong? Argued with his girlfriend? Legally fired his legally owned gun at his legally owned stuff?
Carlos Zambrano did much worse and more often.
They’ve got to make sure they don’t have a Storen problem that the Nat’s had last year, Rondon seems more mature and sure of himself than Storen ever did plus Madden is much better at handling players they just have to be careful with it
Those Raiders teams were pretty crazy though.
I tend to use the phrase “monster” very sparingly. The word indicates someone beyond redemption that needs to be put down. In my mind, that requires a body count and forethought. A guy with anger issues acting like an idiot is not something to admire, but it is not the same category.
There is no proof that he committed domestic violence. He wasn’t even tried for it. While I think it is highly likely that he did, that is not the way our judicial system is set up. Take of that what you will, but being accused and actually doing something are two entirely different things. Many, many people have been falsely accused.
I hate to be a race-baiter, but Peyton Manning has been accused of many, many things. If you read the court documents it is obvious that he did far more than what the general public knows. Some things that he has even admitted to doing. Peyton Manning is a national icon, but a black athlete at the minimum did something that was entirely legal is considered a “monster?” Clearly shooting a gun into your garage is not okay, but it’s not illegal.
In regards to the trade, I think one of the issues baseball analysts have is on how much a World Series win means to a team. There is no way of quantifying the value of WS titles. That is why some trades are so hard to understand. It seems like the Reds received a nice hall for Cueto. But i’d venture even with Cueto struggling that the Royals feel like they “won” the trade. Or lets use the Hall of Fame example. Lets say Chapman helps the Cubs win the World Series this year. They could of won it anyhow, but we cant speculate on what they would of done. Now lets say Torres goes on to become a HOF player. He plays X amount of seasons and signs with another team. While with the Yankees he provides X amount of WAR and is one of the best players in baseball. In this off-season Chapman signs with another team. To me that would seem like the Yankees won the trade. But I would venture a lot of front offices would view it differently.
Aroldis Chapman is not black, idiot.
Really? Yes I understand he is Hispanic, specifically Cuban, but you think he could have played in the major leagues before Jackie Robinson? (The answer to that is “no.” A team tried to do that once. It didn’t work.)
Actually, he is black. In case you didn’t know, “black” is not the same as African American.
“Black” usually means african american or those of the continent of Africa (minus certain countries) Chapman is Cuban. He is about as black as I am. He is Cuban. He is not black. He is as black as Mexicans, Peruvians, Domincans, or Venezuelans: E.G. not at all.
Do you know literally anything about the history of Cuba?
You’re trying to play a cultural anthropology game that you clearly don’t understand the underpinnings of.
Someone like Barack Obama would not be black under the paradigm you’re referring to, but black Haitians are as black as anyone at Alabama A&M. Black Cubans are the same, as are black Brazilians.
They’re all descendants of West African imported as slaves by European colonies to fuel a plantation economy. Mexicans of African descent don’t share that heritage, but black Cubans do.
As a fan of the Cubs, I would rather have had a package with Schwarber as the centerpiece instead of Torres.
People keep talking about Schwarber like he’s a superstar but if he’s not a catcher than he’s not a star, and he didn’t actually hit all that well his second time around the league. Then when you put him in left field instead of 1b, his best position, he doesn’t look all that great.
I think I would prefer that package also. Partly because I think the Cubs will end up trading Schwarber before his six years are up anyway. I almost certainly would have preferred the rumored deal of Miller for Schwarber than this deal, although that may not have ever been on the table.
Torres is the 24th ranked prospect this year. The 24fh ranked prospect in 2011? Aaron Hicks. Check it out: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/
The 23rd ranked player was Nick Franklin.
There is no particular reason to suppose Torres will turn out differently. It’s a lottery.
We fetishize prospects as well as relievers.
When the Yankees traded four pieces to the Reds, they didn’t know how much time they were buying, nor what type of shape Chapman would be in when he could be added to the roster. The only sure thing they were buying was the right to make a QO. Of course, the players they are getting are still prospects (and Warren may be just as bad as he was with Chicago) but what they traded was a stronger bullpen for the balance of the year, and the QO-pick, for these four players. It’s likely a smart deal for them, although if they miss the playoffs by a game or two there will be some second guessing. For the Cubs, if this is a difference maker, and they had the assets, they could afford to overpay. World Series wins do not grow on trees,
People on these boards told me I was crazy when I suggested Chapman would get a pair of top 100 prospects and if organizations were interested in Miller, Cashman would be able to point to a prospect and hang up if they say no.
This trade is like the Shelby Miller deal: Everyone knows its crazy. So, you were right in the context of “well, anything can happen”. Also, is McKinney actually a top 100 prospect anymore? He’s had a terrible year and I believe he lost his tenuous hold on the top 100 in midseason lists.
Yes? He’s around 75 on MLB and about 45 on Baseball America, but I don’t know about any other lists.
Correction: that’s McKinney at 75, but it’s Eloy Jimenez at 45.
This is bang on. McKinney would not be top 100 if they reassessed the prospects today. His power has disappeared along with his contact skills. He may be salvageable but he would be off the top 100 after his non- performance this year, even though it is likely injury related.
And the Yankees haven’t produced a lot of hitters from their farm system recently.
In fact McKinney wasn’t in the BA midseason update top 100 or BP’s top 50.
In fact McKinney wasn’t in the BA midseason update top 100 or BP’s top 50.
To be fair, people on these boards are also saying the Cubs are crazy for doing it. At least we’re consistent.
It’s completely fair (and I would argue, necessary) to include the domestic violence in Chapman’s past in a discussion of his on-field value, and I commend the author for doing so. But to simply say, “I heard someone say he’s monster!!” and leave it at that is, in this instance, unfair, bordering on misleading. Since the incident, Chapman has: shown remorse without making excuses, voluntarily gone to counseling, sold off his guns, and by all accounts, been a model employee.
I’m not saying we should all forget about it or even give him the benefit of the doubt, but we’re only willing to see an athlete as binary or static based on selectively presented facts, then why bother bringing it up at all?
I wonder what the free agent market for Chapman might look like…. 4-5 years $16- $19m AAV? more?
Something which has impressed me is that Yankees’ players are talking up and saying they’d be sad to see Chapman go, and from the way they’re saying it, it doesn’t look like it’s only because of his fastball. Seems like he was at least a decent teammate. If he were really that much of a thug, I don’t think they’d be talking like that.
I think talking about this case as showing that there is a new price for an elite reliever is kind of misleading. There is a somewhat unusual situation this year in that (1) a large number of the teams seen as being serious candidates to win the World Series have relief pitching issues, which will naturally drive the price up, and (2) the Cubs in particular have both a history of failed expectations and such extreme expectations for this year that the possibility of not winning the World Series seems to have driven the front office into a panic. This isn’t a normal situation.
The kind of things things that might make him a terrible human being in his domestic life, wouldn’t necessarily make him a bad teammate. Baseball players sometimes like and respect really weird things about other baseball players.
The Cubs, like all other professional sports organizations, have a win-at-all-costs mentality. As long as Chapman is allowed to play baseball, he is a desirable on-field asset.
The Yankees will resign Chapman this offseason, when he returns to Free Agency. At that point, Chapman will return to the organization that most deserves his off-field legacy.
You’re doing it all wrong. Don’t let them know you care. The best revenge is living well. That’s how to hate.
For some teams it isn’t just a matter of morality, it’s a matter of clubhouse atmosphere affecting ability to win. If the popular perception of Chapman is correct (and as I mention above, it might not be), then I think it’s pretty likely that his presence would poison the atmosphere in the Giants’ clubhouse to the extent that it would pretty much cancel out the positive effect of his ability in terms of the likelihood of winning the World Series.
Just like Lester will resign with the Red Sox? Except he didn’t. If the Yankees overpay him the most then he goes back, but I think Cashman is too smart to do that.
On the other hand, if resources spent on Chapman had been devoted to a more obvious club need, maybe the Yankees wouldn’t be on the outside looking in this year.
The relative cost is what matters more than absolute. For the Cubs, this wasn’t as expensive as it seems. They’ve got a young infield full of talent with an out filed from FA and young homegrown talent (well, before his surgery). There is less cost to losing a SS prospect to them than a team who needs a SS in the near or immediate future. If an apple laptop costs $2,000, to a rich person that isn’t as much as to someone who only makes that much a month.
I think a better analogy is if a rich person should pay $10,000 for an Apple laptop just because they have money rather than the $2,000 that everyone else would pay. Because that is the only real issue with this trade – that the Cubs did not get full value for their asset. The Cubs absolutely should have made this trade if Torres & Co are only worth two months of a bench player, or even only close to that. But fans are concerned that Torres is worth more and the opportunity cost exceeds the potential benefit.
My inclination is that the Cubs paid too much for Chapman and Montgomery. But I think that Theo has executed the Cubs’ rebuild nearly flawlessly, so I think I need to give him the benefit of the doubt and trust that he received near full value for what he gave up.
If they need an Apple laptop immediately and only one is being sold at the moment?
Sure.
Torres is not an immediate or even long term SS solution. He likely moves to 3rd, 2nd or the OF if he makes it to the majors in 3 or 4 years.
Looking at this from both sides.
Yankees got Chapman for 4 middling prospects, none of whom are having good years. They paid him 5+ million in salary and another 2.5 million in tax , so call it 8 million. The fact they are selling, coast them a chance at a WC spot even though they are only 4 games behind in the loss column.
They get a top 25 prospect at a position they probably don’t need to add to, That’s based on Torres as a SS. He may end up at 2B or 3B as he grows. Probably 3B given his arm, and if his bat develops. At 19 and being in A+ ball, he still has a ways to go.
The other 2 prospects, one is organizational fodder, and another has dropped out of the rankings despite being a 1st round pick which got him there in the first place. Injuries, bad weight gain, lack of power development. Not too much to get excited about.
Then there is Warren, who had an awful year, so you wonder about injury. If he could return to 2015 form, that-s a huge add.
So basically, the Yankees surrender hope of a 2nd WC spot and possible as much as 50 million in post season earnings for a nice prospect who has a 50% chance of being a bust (1 WAR player per year in his controlled years).
The Cubs look at Chapman and see 3 months of service, not 2 because they will play in October. They see themselves going deeper into the post season with Chapman, and that could be worth another 10-20 million. They also likely see acquiring him as increasing their chances of extending him to multiple years, or as a FA. So maybe not quite the rental people think.
The pieces they gave up perhaps have value to other teams, but the Cubs have no use for them other than as trade currency which they have no better use for than a guy like Chapman. With Warren they have obviously given up on him, which may be a mistake on their part, but Warren for Chapman is a no brainer.
The only loser here is Yankee fans who see a a chance for 2016 go up in smoke. Everyone else wins, except Hals chances of collecting some post season revenue . Of course, Cashman could trade Mateo who is now more expendable for a bat, and everyone wins
Where your logic is flawed is that the Yankees didn’t give up a chance at the wild card. The comparison is Miller vs Chapman closing- that’s a wash. Betences vs Miller setting up- that’s a wash. So it really is the difference between Betences and what the Yankees have in the 7th. It’s likely less than a win.
So in exchange for that they receive a top prospect, a former top prospect and a one year removed effective swingman. The Yankees made out great- so did the Cubs as they upgrade their pen a lot. It’s actually a win-win which is what the best GM’s are able to consistently pull off.
We can fawn over prospects all day, projecting them to be the next (insert comp here), but at the end of the day they have zero impact on current results. The gut reaction towards the Pomeranz trade was that it was a high price. The gut reaction to the Chapman trade is that it is a high price. We as a community of fans, scouts and analysts tend to focus on projection. A GM’s job is about results. At the end of the day, results are how a GM is judged.
GMs in baseball rarely get to keep their job long enough to see these low minors players make any substantive impact at the MLB level, if they make one at all. You cannot justify clinging to a player who may be the next (insert comp here) in 2020 when you won’t have a job in 2020 if you don’t win in 2016. We’re spoiled by the current crop of young players who came up and were stars immediately. The assumption should be that all prospects *will* fail, because the fact of the matter is most will. Prospects are assets, nothing more. I think it would help us as fans to recognize that.
Would I have made this trade were I the Cubs GM? No. The off-field distraction may very well wash out the on-field gains. But there is no way to quantify that and ultimately this is the price the market dictates for an elite reliever. I personally would have let someone else pay it, but I’m not paid to agonize over that decision.
I think you’re right on every count except the distraction. The Cubs have the media spotlight all the time, so this is no big shock.
This trade tells the players that management is behind them. Last year, the Blue Jays went on a huge winning streak after a few marquee additions, but Price was probably worth only 2-3 extra wins, Tulo got injured, and Revere, you know, nice player but not going to turn around a team. The trade triggered the transformation though.
The Cubs could enjoy the same benefit.
I’d like to think there wouldn’t be a distraction, but seeing how horribly the Chicago media handled Chapman’s press conference today, I’m not so sure that’s the case. The Chicago media started a riot on twitter by reporting what ended up being incorrectly translated answers from Chapman. Not necessarily their fault, but just shows how easily things can blow up in a major market.
Whether or not that is a distraction to the team though, who knows. Like you said, you’d think playing in Chicago would have them pretty well versed in distractions but with such a young team, it’s really hard to judge.
I don’t think this deal is a fair comp for rental market, because the Cubs situation is a different animal altogether. This is a very young team, with a lot of players under control for a long time, and a ridiculously rich farm system.
While Torres may be a valuable chip on the open market, he’s just not that valuable of a trade chip for the Cubs relative to their system. Or to put it another way, its not a huge cost to pay for them, relative to getting the best reliever in the game for a stretch run. Its akin to when Dombrowski traded Fister to the Nationals; it was viewed as a bad deal, because of Fister’s value, but at the time, Fister was in a rotation with Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello, and Smyly — relatively speaking, Fister wasn’t that valuable to the Tigers.
You always talk about prospect surplus value (in this case approx 50million) but not the real dollar value of making the playoffs and in the Cubs case winning the World Series. The value in additional revenue is north of $50 million making a 19 year with a bust rate around 30-50% – extremely expendable and certainly the reason there were other sweetners in the form of real major league talent and another prospect to bring it into line. Cashman and Epstein are two bright guys and seem to find a lot of win-win trades this is no different
Brian Cashman has just shown the world that he is one of the, if not the, best GM in baseball. He has made the Reds, the Dodgers and now the Cubs all look like complete fools. Hail Cashman! It’s a damned shame George isn’t here to see this.
The Pirates still won the Brian McCann signing.
Posit:
Unless you win the World Series, ALL trade deadline free-agent to be rentals are bad deals.
Only small disclaimer might be a team that doesn’t make the playoffs at all without the trade.
Once again the rush to judgment by the media without bothering to wait for the facts blows up in their faces. Not only did Theo and the Ricketts do significant research into the facts behind the alleged domestic abuse incident, and Chapman’s character the team did as well.
Cubs catcher David Ross did his own background check, calling Yankees catcher Brian McCann.
“He says [Chapman] is a phenomenal guy, great teammate, wants to win,” Ross said. “Brian’s one of those guys who when he says something, I take it to heart and believe it. I’m excited, and we’re excited to get him and give him a clean slate.”
Can’t you guys discuss chapmans off the field issues on ESPN or yahoo?:)
I think the Cubs did pay too much but when you look at value for value you also have to consider the window of opportunity. The window gets underrated, you have 6 years of control but having everyone clicking is quite rare. That means such a year of opportunity Is incredibly valuable and value in 5 years might not be what it is now. The focus often on the future and I understand the keep the flow of prospects coming mentality but don’t forget that this farm system was historically great and came at a high cost ( 3-4 years of tanking and trading for prospects). The window is not closing but there is a good chance the next wave will not be as good and thus every year of that window has a super high value.