Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/15

11:56

Dan Szymborski: Noon. A time for chats.

11:57

Comment From jocephus
provide some damn content will ya??

11:57

Dan Szymborski: Content isn’t made. It’s summoned from the aether.

11:57

Dan Szymborski: Every thing I will ever say already exists. The question is if I can find it.

11:58

Comment From Eric
Some have suggested that Norris, Boyd, Reid-Foley from Jays would’ve been an equivalent package to the one the Royals sent to the Reds? Do you think so?

11:59

Dan Szymborski: It’s not crazy, though I like Norris better than anybody in the Royals trade.

11:59

Comment From Oren
Is it still worth it for the Jays to go after SP rentals? Yankees seem to be running away with the division, and the wild card mix is pretty busy.

11:59

Dan Szymborski: I believe so – I wrote a piece on this subject on ESPN.

12:00

Comment From Mike
Dan, I don’t think daily fantasy gambling is your thing, but just from an odds standpoint, is there a better strategy than stack the Jays game and hope for a 10-8 laugher?

12:00

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a bad one.

12:00

Comment From marc
Hanson Bell McGuire plus small piece(s) for Hamles and cash, who says no?

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Probably Phillies.

12:00

Comment From Dad
What would a Jays package for Fiers look like?

12:01

Dan Szymborski: If you’re picking up Fiers, the return better not be something that can be remotely called a “package.”

12:01

Comment From The Boat
I am the Boat.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Godo to know.

12:02

Comment From Brian
Dodgers De Leon for Price. Fair?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Straight up? The Tigers may be exploring a Price trade, but I doubt we see this.

12:03

Comment From Los
Pirates are projected (by Fangraphs not you) to finish with the second best record in baseball and are projected to be rewarded by facing Bumgarner again in a one-game playoff. Can I petition MLB for Atlanta and Pittsburgh to switch divisions since Atlanta is further west anyway?

12:03

Dan Szymborski: You can petition MLB for anything you want!

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Atlanta’s farther west, but Pittsburgh is a more natural opponent for the midwest teams.

12:04

Comment From hscer
So I just saw that the first word on Biggio’s plaque bio was “gritty.” A) Why? B) I thought we were past this. C) Shouldn’t he be insulted by being put in the same class as David Eckstein?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Smallish white guy didn’t fit on the plaque.

12:04

Comment From Guy
So, Clippard is getting traded soon. Who closes for the A’s? Pomeranz? IS IT BARRY ZITO TIME?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Depends who’s still there when the dust is settled.

12:05

Comment From George
Sounds like Pads are pushing for a SS – Would Jose Iglesias for Ross/Benoit/Barmes/ be anywhere near enough for the Tigers?

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Whiel the Tigers would consider it, the problem is the team isn’t good enough that they can make gains by reallocating MLB talent. They’re thinner than ever.

12:06

Comment From Kevin
The O’s have a lot of FA turnover coming up and are pretty out of the division race at this point. A few of those guys could fetch something as rentals, do you see them selling?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: I don’t, but they should.

12:06

Dan Szymborski: (If they’re nto adding)

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Standing pat is the worst thing for the O’s. Being around .500 is a very dangerous trap for a passive organization.

12:07

Comment From Sean Nolin
What should I be looking at in a Zobrist return? Does Clippard/Ike/Chavez get thrown in to get a TOP prospect return?

12:08

Dan Szymborski: Depends where you draw the line at top. Rentals getting crazy packages is really mostly a thing of the past.

12:08

Comment From season tickets
thoughts on colin cowherd?

12:08

Dan Szymborski: I make dumb comments, but that was more than dumb.

12:08

Comment From Pale Hose
That Mike Trout guy leads baseball in fWAR again…YAWN!

12:09

Dan Szymborski: I know I’ve said it before, but Trout has somehow become a run-of-the-mill future inner circle Hall of Famer so far!

12:09

Comment From Mike
I can’t believe people still criticize ZIPS. I mean it can correctly predict the career war of what? 99.999% of the global population exactly. Beyond that, they are just splitting hairs right?

12:09

Dan Szymborski: Yup. There’s only like a thousand or so people on the planet it has trouble with!

12:09

Comment From Johnson
Can you or a colleague please write an article on the Jays, stating that it’s too late to make a move? and that they should just stand pat? Maybe AA will read it and stop him from buying. Also, mention that they should have bought a month ago, but the window is closed due to ineffective team management

12:09

Dan Szymborski: Disagree, but they need bigger adds than they would have

12:10

Comment From Big Boy
How real is Odor? Does it make sense for me to move Xander for him, if I have Correa and Seager rostered as well?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: He’s not *this* good, but he was always better than his early season line. It’s not his fault that the Rangers stupidly panicked about 100 PA.

12:11

Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury
Are the Orioles going to do anything before the deadline?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: I suspect nothing significant.

12:11

Comment From marc
*insert Lost joke about not Penny’s boat

12:11

Comment From Guy
Heard both the Indians and Rangers as suiters for C. Gomez and also they seem willing to sell. Odd that both are taking a similar strategy, and does that lower the value of Gomez that both interested teams have no obvious need to be buyers?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: They’re both looking past this season. Gomez is essentially on a 1/9 contract after this season, which means he has significant value to a team looking for next year options.

12:12

Dan Szymborski: No law that all trades have to be win now. If you can get a win soon trade done while everybody else is focusing on win now, why not?

12:12

Comment From Los
Screw you and your logic. I just want the Pirates to have the best chance at a World Series!

12:13

Comment From Andrew
Shouldn’t Ruben just grow up already and trade a star pitcher in high demand throughout the League for whichever of Boston’s 21st-30th prospects they deem most expendable? (Paraphrased from every message board regarding Hamels)

12:13

Comment From marc
HOF weekend has got me thinking Burnett. HOF worthy right? What team will be on his cap tho?

12:13

Dan Szymborski: He can wear any cap he likes if he pays admission and it’s not vulgar and against Cooperstown guest policy.

12:14

Comment From The Boat
How inspiring is it that the Mets’ FO actually did something? Might we expect them to do more somethings in the near future?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: The Mets are a hard ognization – they simply have lousy ownership

12:14

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
DeLeon, Holmes, Verdugo and Barnes for Hammels. Who shoots milk out their nose?

12:14

Comment From Marcus Banks
What do you think it would have taken for the Mets to get Simmons from ATL?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: Quite a bit – I dont’ think the Braves are burning with desire to move him.

12:15

Comment From FF6 = Best FF ever
Since being called up from AAA, Odor has a ridiculous .308 ISO. He’s also virtually stopped swinging and missing. How much of this is sustainable going forward?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: Well, that’s not sustainable. I think he was definitely an underrated player coming into the season though.

12:15

Dan Szymborski: But be aggressive and never miss only really works if you’re Vlad.

12:17

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, cat turned off PC – switching to laptop

12:18

Comment From AA
If you were the Padres, would you look into eating any of kimbrel’s contract in a trade?

12:18

Dan Szymborski: Only if it gets a better prospect. Baseball has reduced the ability to use money for prospects, so it’s the only way you can utilize money for prospects for free

12:18

Comment From Houzer
CEspedis for Wheeler a reach?

12:19

Dan Szymborski: I would be very unhappy with the Mets if they did that.

12:20

Comment From greg
We know that they should, but do you get the feeling that the Reds will trade Chapman before the deadline?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: I do not.

12:20

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Where do you think Ben Zobrist ends up? Seems like a perfect fit for the Yankees right?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like speculating on A’s trades as they tend to come out of nowhere, without even whispers.

12:21

Comment From mtsw
Re: Pittsburgh to NL East. Obvious solution is to move Tampa to a real city in the west (Portland or Vancouver perhaps) and to the AL West, move Houston back to the NL Central, move Pittsburgh to the NL east and Washington to the AL East.

12:22

Comment From Rags
Is Zack Godley anything? Good debut but not much MiLB track record? Overlooked potential or flash in the pan?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Most likely a flash in the pan But one of the benefits of being a lousy team is that you can afford to see.

12:22

Comment From Jeremy
What do you make of Castellanos’ recent run? A really nice couple weeks, or is this him reaching his potential, meaning this is what we should expect going forward?

12:23

Dan Szymborski: He was bound to improve, though his defense is going to keep him from really being more than an OK player, I think.

12:23

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Gun to your head.. the 2015 WS will be between which 2 teams?

12:23

Dan Szymborski: Gun to my head, I’ll say anything you want until I can get away and call the police.

12:23

Comment From Maxamuz

12:23

Comment From Sirras
Currently active player you think is most likely to juuuuuust miss the HoF?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: Beltran and I am going to be comletely pissed

12:24

Comment From EC
What move could the Nats make that would have the most impact on their WS odds?

12:24

Dan Szymborski: Getting to write a lineup card with at least half of their good players

12:25

Comment From Joe
What should the Royals do to clear Cueto’s spot on the roster? Move Young to the pen and DFA Blanton?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: That’s what I would do. Blanton’s already been reverting to being Joe Blanton

12:25

Comment From Marcus Banks
How many more years does Trout have to sustain this where he can just retire early and still be a lock for the HOF.

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Just the minimum. And if he’s killed after the 2018 season in a tragic hot air balloon accident, he gets Addie Jossed into the Hall.

12:26

Comment From marc
has a pirates fan, I love what NH has been able to do for the Pirates. Tho should i be worried some big market team will try to scoop him up in the near future?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Possibly, but the organization he built will remain in place

12:27

Dan Szymborski: Rebuilding the Pirates required a visionary. Maintaining the Pirates requires a competent engineer.

12:27

Comment From mtsw
What does Steve Pearce’s next contract look like? Feel like nothing between 3/24 and minor league deal would surprise me given his idiosyncratic profile.

12:27

Dan Szymborski: Oh, it’ll be under the 3/24 I’m sure

12:27

Comment From The Boat
Do the Giants even need anything? (Parra, I guess, but besides that…)

12:27

Dan Szymborski: A starter. Their rotation sounds better than it is

12:27

Comment From LOVESWORD
Why is Amaro still employed, especially now?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: The lawyers are making sure incompetence isn’t a protected class first.

12:28

Comment From mtsw
What will Darren O’Day get in free agency? Elite numbers but doesn’t seem to excite people like fireballers do.

12:28

Dan Szymborski: He’s not a magical proven closer, so maybe Mike Adams dough.

12:28

Comment From Franklin
Angels are interested in Zobrist, along with everyone else. Could Heaney be on the table?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: Not right now. Teams are far more likely to trade young players if they *may* help now rather than if they actually are.

12:30

Comment From Franklin
Pat Venditte is on a minor league rehab game. Know what that means? IT’S ALMOST VENDITTE TIME YEEEEEEEEEEEEE

12:31

Dan Szymborski: I still don’t understand how a switch pitcher goes on the DL with one sore shoulder

12:31

Dan Szymborski: An escalator can never break, it can only become stairs. You should never see an Escalator Temporarily Out of Order sign, just Escalator Temporarily Stairs. /hedberg

12:32

Comment From Billy
CJ Edwards ever get another chance to start?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: Seems likely, though I’m very concerned about the walks this year

12:32

Comment From Steve
Should the Royals go “all in” and trade for Zobrist? Or would the improvement be so marginal that it wouldn’t improve their WS odds enough to warrant the loss of prospects?

12:33

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s one trade too far considering they got Cueto to help in the playoffs. Given that the playoffs aren’t really in doubt, the gains become more marginal since it’s mostly *just* the playoffs

12:34

Comment From Todd
I had been feeling pretty bullish on John Lamb but reading Kiley’s scouting I am much less so. Where do you fall? Was hoping he’d be a good 2nd half SP

12:35

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s worth a shot for a team that has the luxury of experimenting – I think high-minors performance coupled with lack of stuff shouldn’t prevent a player from getting an opportunity

12:36

Dan Szymborski: That being said, he just isn’t the pitcher he was in 2011.

12:36

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
What is your favorite non-baseball pastime?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Video games.

12:36

Comment From Johnny5Alive
Some rumors that mets and brewers had a deal in place for parra for a prospect they asked for, and the brewers pulled back last minute. Does this station the relationship? Make it less Kelley for another deal?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. if the teams still have a mutual interest, it’s in their interests to still trade

12:36

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
You posted my question but didn’t answer. What gives?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Lemme see.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: I assumed that was rhetorical.

12:37

Comment From dkdfd
would profar and chichi be enough for hamels?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: No

12:37

Comment From Anthony
Isn’t if Philly was willing to eat most of Papelbon’s $13mil vesting option in order to trade him, the same as utilizing money for prospects for free?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

12:37

Comment From Dans Blue Cat
mreh mreh. Feeding time is soon. Prepare your soul. mreh.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: He won’t bug me until 2 PM.

12:38

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how he knows it’s 2 PM. He’s usually within 5 minutes on either side.

12:38

Dan Szymborski: And he already figures out when the clocks have moved after the first day.

12:38

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Looking at the teams in the AL East, am I biased to think that the Yankees are WAY more complete than all the others? What can they do at the deadline to get even better? (Seems like Refsnyder/Drew at second is a better alternative than what is actually out there)

12:39

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re WAY more complete, but they’re the second-tier team in the division that has played the best. July was nice for the Yanks.

12:39

Dan Szymborski: The Yankees are a hard team to upgrade.

12:40

Dan Szymborski: I *do* think Zobrist would be a solid upgrade at second.

12:42

Dan Szymborski: The team’s biggest upgrade may be stop using Sabathia

12:42

Comment From Awesome Question Aether Traveler
Found this question in the Aether of “Things already written not yet said”: How excited are you for next Supreme Court session?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t I answer enough Supreme Court Qs the other week?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even a lawyer, you bastards!

12:42

Comment From Houzer
Alfonso Soriano HOF? Man .. he had some stellar years

12:42

Dan Szymborski: Not happening. We can’t even get half the easily deserving candidates into the Hal lthese days

12:43

Comment From DZ
What could Collabello get the Jays in a trade? Seems like a good bat that could help net a starter or reliever.

12:44

Dan Szymborski: He’s seen as a serviceable minor league veteran role player that is good enough to have a solid month or two here and there. And that is correct.

12:44

Dan Szymborski: If he was young, maybe a team believes he could put it all together for a season

12:45

Dan Szymborski: But he’s not, of course.

12:45

Dan Szymborski: He’s six months younger than Miguel Cabrera.

12:45

Comment From Billy
HOF Question from below, but reversed… just makes it in

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone undeserving barely makes it in over the next several years.

12:46

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Moncada cost 63 mil for the sox to sign him.. If a 18 year old Int FA came up and had 80- speed and 80- power while being a true SS. How much do you think he would sign for? Also if this prospect was in the draft, would he have the power to make the team overpay and forfeit picks in next years draft?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: Players in the draft have no power.

12:46

Comment From Toutsky
Mike Trout could retire next year and make HOF just from his first few years. Has there been anyone as dominating as him as early in their career?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think he *should* if he retired today, just on his peak. But I don’t think the voters would, given the opportunity.

12:47

Comment From Billy
Most underrated manager in MLB?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: Clint Hurdle? He’s certainly not an amazing in-game tactician, but he ‘s able to not get in the way of his team’s success and is willing to change things that aren’t working. Those two things are probably 75% of a manager’s job.

12:48

Comment From Rod Allen
What would you do with Dave Dombrowski after this season. Start over fresh or re-sign him?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: It depends. I’d have to talk with him and see his vision for a rebuild.

12:49

Comment From Neal
Should the Orioles become sellers and sell away some of their sweet sweet expiring contracts?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: If they’re not buyers, they should be sellers.

12:49

Comment From The Oriole Bird
What says your model on the O’s playoff odds right now? I was optimistic going into the series against the Yankees series last week. Yikes!

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Down to 20% at last check. The divisional scenarios are only a few now and that leaves them fighting for a wild card with most of the rest of the second rate league.

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Right now, the AL is a league full of second-rate teams. The NL is a league full of first-rate and third-rate teams.

12:50

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Who will have a higher HOF vote %. Jeter or Rivera?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Jeter

12:50

Comment From I am the Walrus
I hear Cozart might be on the block? Is he a league avg. SS and what do you think Cinc could get for him?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he would be that desired this winter. When you have a shortstop who gets most of his value from defense, the fact that he tore up his knee is going to limit his value considerably.

12:52

Comment From Jake
How many times a day do you think Venditte has coaches/vets come up to him and say “If you wanna make it to the show, you’re gonna have to cut the ambidextrous crap”?

12:52

Dan Szymborski: He’s 30, none at this point.

12:52

Comment From Josh G
Has Aaron Nola done anything over his first two starts to make you think he could become a No. 2 or even an ace rather than a mid-rotation arm?

12:52

Dan Szymborski: I like Nola, but two starts from a player will never change my opinion.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Unless, of course, he tore his elbow and shoulder and got run over by a bullpen cart (I miss those)

12:53

Comment From hscer
Yes but an escalator doesn’t rely on the platoon advantage.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Yeah it does – it has value for the lazy.

12:54

Comment From Jake
In Hamels talks, Refsnyder apparently isn’t on the “no way in hell” list. Is the lack of faith NYY has in Refsnyder getting a bit concerning?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: I think people are getting a little *too* excited about Refsnyder, honestly

12:55

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be good, but people are getting carreid away.

12:55

Comment From marc
Whats more likely to happen, Caminero turns it around or Holdzkom stays healthy gets the call and performs like last year?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: I hope Caminero turns it around considering I keep Canyonero lyrics about him on Twitter

12:55

Comment From hscer
Do you follow @mitchhedbot yet?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: I do not, but I should

12:56

Comment From The Boat
Do the Royals trade Holland after this year? He’ll be mad expensive, and they have tons of other good relievers…(I thought he should have gone before this season, at peak value).

12:56

Dan Szymborski: I think they should. Will? That’s a different matter.

12:56

Comment From hscer
yesterday @mitchhedbot gave me one I’d forgotten about for maybe the first time: “I had a Mr. Pibb, Mr. Pibb is a replica of Dr. Pepper… but it’s the bullshit replica, cause dude didn’t even get his degree.”

12:56

Comment From Ruben Tomorrow Jr.
How can you justify removing Chris Young from the Royals’ rotation with his 1.07 WHIP and 3.32 ERA?

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Go out and buy a bunch of stocks based on how well they performed last month. Tell me how you did next month.

12:57

Comment From mtsw
How happy is Cueto to be playing in KC instead of CIN given that there still seem to be organizations out there who don’t understand the magnitude of various park factors and defense? A couple months of sub 2.00 ERA ball will earn him 10s of millions extra this offseason no?

12:57

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think most of the GMs that have the money to spend are this stupid anymore.

12:57

Comment From Owen
What will it take for the Yankees to pull the CC plug? Is not wanting to admit a mistake a factor in letting him continue to compromise their chances? Or is it just his salary that’s keeping him aboard? I’m guessing it’s the latter which just doesn’t make sense to me. Certainly Cashman is smart enough to understand the concept of throwing good money after bad, which is essentially what he’s doing.

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Teams are very bad at sunk costs.

12:58

Comment From Houzer
what if the Tigers traded Price and Moya to the Phillies for Hamels, then the Phillies could keep Moya and trade Price? Then the Tigers could still play this year, get a year of Hamels, and shop him next year if they aren’t contending

12:59

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the Phillies geto ut of this other than only having 4 days to trade their best pitcher instead of all winter.

12:59

Comment From hscer
What’s the best PA if you want to do a “WAR per” – 600? 650?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: I like 600 simply because a lot of people use it and that makes it easier to communicate.

12:59

Comment From The Boat
If Reds can deal Leake/Bruce/Byrd/Chapman and get decent returns, they could end up in pretty good shape for the future, no? Get rid of Philips and suddenly they have Votto/Suarez/Cozart/Frazier/Mesoraco, plus Hamilton and a maybe-okay pitching staff.

12:59

Dan Szymborski: They could, they won’t.

12:59

Comment From Dave B
I’d think the Yanks are easy to upgrade — SP

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Their willingness factors into the equatio though.

1:00	Comment From Neal It was just reported by a Chicago insider that Jays continue to make biggest push for Shark. What kind of prospects would it take to get him? Norris+?

1:00	Dan Szymborski: Less than that. And if Shark required Norris, I’d back off. I think the Jays should make an addition, but not at all costs.

1:00	Comment From Max Why didn’t the Yankees try and keep Refsnyder up longer to see if he would work at 2B? If he plays well at 2B they wouldn’t have to trade for Zobrist

1:00	Dan Szymborski: The Yankees are very risk-averse.

1:00	Comment From Jake NYY has the highest proj ROS in the AL, they’re only behind the Dodgers in WS odds. You think second-tier team is a touch aggresive?

1:01	Dan Szymborski: No. WS odds are league specific remember (you can’t have two NL teams in the WS), not a realative measure of team qualty.

1:01	Comment From owen Which player(s) complete the mets roster?

1:02	Dan Szymborski: Eric Young Jr. because no Terry Collins roster is complete without an awful fast player to misuse.

1:02	Comment From Jake RE Anthony’s question on essentially paying for prospects, are we gonna stat seeing this on a bigger scale? If PHI were to eat a lot of Hamels’ Contract, say, $70 MM, getting 2 or 3 blue chip prospects isn’t out of the question.

1:02	Dan Szymborski: Ah, yes. We should see teams willing to do this. It’s the best opportunity to buy prospects.

1:03	Dan Szymborski: Trading Hamels for two prospects and trading Hamels + $ for two prospects and a better one is a de factor prospect purchase. It’s one of the few ways to leverage money for prospects.

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Though MLB would probably step in if it became apparent teams were signing plkayers to dummy contracts for the purpose of buying prospects.

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Though I’d have to think about how this would work to exploit the system

1:05	Comment From Billy Is it just me, or are a lot more players jumping over AAA nowadays?

1:05	Dan Szymborski: It’s you. Players play much longer in the minors than they used to.

1:05	Comment From Steve How did the addition of Cueto change KC’s playoff odds?

1:05	Dan Szymborski: Minimally.

1:05	Dan Szymborski: Why are there more negative Indiana facts in my timeline?

1:05	Comment From Dave B Would you rather be a MLB regular (non all star) today or in 1975?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Today. You get paid more. Plus I didn’t exist in 1975.

1:06	Comment From Dan dArnaud returns and the Mets add an average to below average offensive CF, is their offense suddenly decent?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t say decent, but at least less-horrible.

1:06	Comment From Hyped Do you think Seattle will be a buyer or seller? Do they have a realistic chance at a wildcard looking at how the offense has been surging recently?

1:06	Dan Szymborski: They should be a seller, but they won’t

1:06	Comment From Billy Not questioning players playing longer in the minors… It just feels like teams are more willing to have guys skip AAA… not necessarily as a general rule,

1:07	Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe this is the case.

1:07	Comment From Dave B I’d think a sale of dummy contracts for projects could be worked by a cheap team to get revenue sharing without actually paying players, depending on how the accounting works for minimum salary requirements

1:07	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’d have to think about it though. Hard to ponder in a 15-second chat answer.

1:07	Comment From Craig Wanna throw down some money on who gets fired first on the first day of the offseason – Jack Z or RAJ?

1:07	Dan Szymborski: IF they make it to the end of the season, both.

1:08	Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re past 1 PM now, so time for what is strangely the most popular part of my chat, The Lightning Round.

1:08	Dan Szymborski: The rules of the Lightning Round are that I have to answer every and any off-topic question, with the exception of very vulgar questions or work-related reasons.

1:08	Comment From Ruben Tomorrow Jr. Pepsi or Coke

1:08	Dan Szymborski: Coke.

1:08	Comment From Sirras Why were there no presidents?

1:08	Dan Szymborski: Spelt late.

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Slept late.

1:09	Comment From Yahoody Lays or Wise Potato Chip? Or Other

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Utz.

1:09	Comment From RAJ Will you give me a reference?

1:09	Dan Szymborski: Dictionary or encyclopedia?

1:09	Comment From Tommy Bo Wipe up or down?

1:09	Dan Szymborski: That’s more a horizontal question.

1:09	Comment From Joe Who is the greatest philosopher in the world today?

1:10	Dan Szymborski: https://twitter.com/kimkier…

1:10	Comment From Max Britannica or Wikipedia?

1:10	Dan Szymborski: Wikipedia is more accessible. I don’t have a brittanica set.

1:10	Comment From Ruben Tomorrow Jr. Why did the chicken cross the road?

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Clearly the chicken desired something on the other side of the road.

1:11	Comment From Adam If you had the chance, would you pet the Milwaukee Lion?

1:11	Dan Szymborski: No. I like cats that won’t bite off my hand.

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Without a hand, typing is harder, as are video games, and I’d only be able to play left-handed only piano music.

1:11	Comment From Owen If you could have an extra body part (has to be of something you already have) what would you choose—-besides the obvious?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Heart. I’m no scientician but I hear they’re pretty crucial.

1:12	Comment From Chris Any religious beliefs?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: No. I’m an agnostic. Not an atheist.

1:12	Comment From Tommy Bo should I tell my wife I cheated on her with her mother and step sister? It was at the same time..

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Sure.

1:12	Comment From Max What if Bo Jackson never got injured.

1:12	Dan Szymborski: He’d be Emperor of the United States by now.

1:12	Comment From a eskpert Mike Trout has summitted the WAR leaderboards. The world has returned to its natural state.

1:12	Comment From alart mets tradding for clippard!

1:12	Comment From Slew(Seattle) Favorite stand up comedian, today and all-time?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Hedberg

1:13	Comment From Yahoody Favorite Guitarist?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: Segovia

1:13	Comment From marc Duke Silver or Johnny Karate/Mouse Rat?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: Duke Silver

1:13	Comment From jocephus remember that brittanica guy who sold the books? always wanted to punch him

1:13	Comment From Max Favorite video game?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: All time, probably Final Fantasy VI. Right now, Crusader Kings II.

1:13	Comment From Sirras Did Bradley Cooper voice the racoon that was in the Mets locker room, or just the one in that movie?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: I do not know.

1:13	Comment From Aunt Jessie Opinion on words like “conversate” that the british/irish use? Drove me bonkers when I lived there.

1:14	Dan Szymborski: I hate or-e-GONE-o

1:14	Comment From marc should pluto be a planet?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Yes.

1:14	Comment From Tommy Bo My wife was behind me when I sent that question.

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Well, she knows now.

1:14	Comment From Slew(Seattle) Country you’d like to visit?

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Turkey.

1:14	Comment From Slew(Seattle) Biggest regret in life?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Not exercising more. Eventually, probalby not having children.

1:15	Comment From Yahoody How would you use invisability?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: assuming you mean invisibility, I’d rob banks I think

1:15	Comment From Owen If you were a poor Dominican kid who wasn’t quite good enough to make it to the States, would you take steroids and risk getting caught for the potential reward? I know I would.

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Yes.

1:15	Dan Szymborski: The risk/reward is too high.

1:15	Comment From Max Wayne’s World or Bill and Ted’s?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Bill and Ted has aged better, so that.

1:16	Comment From Slew(Seattle) Favorite Marvel movie?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: Iron Man

1:16	Comment From Aunt Jessie Have we passed Half Life’s (hooray final fantasy vi! screw vii. ;-p)

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Wait, passed what?

1:17	Comment From L. Scott If you were granted by a genie the choice of ONE of the following: flying, invincibility, super speed, x-ray vision, or heat vision, which power would you choose?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: invincibility

1:17	Comment From Slew(Seattle) Turkey is great! Visit the Basilica Cistern!

1:17	Dan Szymborski: I’d love to visit all the old byzantine places.

1:17	Comment From Tommy Bo My wife is a blow version of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

1:17	Dan Szymborski: blow version? Like she’s Ruth Bader Ginsburg with a cocaine habit?

1:17	Comment From Chris Tommy Bo has to joking, no?

1:18	Comment From Sean Best pork ribs you’ve ever had?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: This hole in the wall in north carolina which name i can’t remember now

1:18	Comment From Aunt Jessie 1. Hooray final fantasy vi — screw vii. 2. Has Half Life 2 passed its half life yet / are we due for a Half Life 3 yet? 3. or-uh-gone-oh — gahhhh yeah I forgot about that one. 4. Turkey is rad. Highly recommended.

1:18	Dan Szymborski: Valve can’t count to 3.

1:18	Comment From Jimmy Johns its not too late to exercise

1:19	Dan Szymborski: No, but it would have been better to have started earlier. I could’ve been buffa ll this time

1:19	Comment From Slew(Seattle) What percentage of the lightning round questions do you answer honestly?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: All of them to the best of my ability. That’s the rule.

1:19	Comment From marc would you be cool with more Matrix movies?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though they’d suck probably

1:19	Comment From Neal You said you may regret not having kids. I’m 28 and on the fence of having or not having kids. What makes you think you’ll regret not having them?

1:19	Dan Szymborski: I may. It seems the kind of thing you regret when you’re on your deathbed someday.

1:20	Comment From Max Are we best friends?

1:20	Dan Szymborski: My best friend is named Alan. Are you Alan?

1:20	Comment From Hoff Do you think Cowherd was out of line for his DR comments?

1:20	Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:20	Comment From Slew(Seattle) Opinion on the Dragon Quest series?

1:20	Dan Szymborski: Love it

1:20	Comment From Yahoody Ever pee in the shower?

1:20	Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:21	Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup easier to give up: baseball or video games?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: video games. I love both, but only one is connected to my making a living

1:22	Comment From Sean wait I’m in NC tell me where this hole in the wall is

1:23	Dan Szymborski: I believe South of Greenville somewhere

1:23	Comment From Mike Do any of your cats freak out when they have to travel in a car?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:23	Comment From tenaciousdeucer hotdogs or corndogs?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: hot dog

1:23	Comment From Aunt Jessie Do you cook? What’s your favorite dish to prepare?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: Yes, stir fry

1:23	Comment From Sirras Would you rather travel the world for 2 months fully subsidized or spend 6 hours on the moon fully subsidized?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: World.

1:24	Dan Szymborski: I’m too chickenshit to go to the moon.

1:24	Comment From Aunt Jessie For a Matrix-like movie, I highly recommend Source Code.

1:24	Comment From Tommy Bo I lead a sad life.

1:24	Dan Szymborski: These aren’t questions.

1:24	Comment From Vance You say that about the Matrix movies, but they’re coming out with a new Rocky and I’m stoked for it.

1:24	Comment From Slew(Seattle) I’m 38. Odds the Indians win a championship before I die?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: 60%

1:24	Comment From War2d2 From a guy who didn’t want kids, then had a kid, I’m here to tell you that you will regret not having them. They’re great, especially when their first word is “baseball,” like with my little guy.

1:24	Comment From Pohoody Ever poo in the shower?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Noo.

1:24	Comment From Taylor Pretend you’re Farhan Zaidi. Would you rather give up Jose de Leon or Grant Holmes in a Hamels deal?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Holmes

1:25	Comment From jeff gonna watch any sgdq?

1:25	Dan Szymborski: Probably

1:25	Comment From Alex Ever pee in the sink?

1:25	Dan Szymborski: Yes, actually.

1:25	Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup fries or tots?

1:25	Dan Szymborski: fries

1:25	Comment From WATT What model of car do you drive?

1:25	Dan Szymborski: 2004 Mazda 6s

1:25	Comment From Stu Most popular fast food places you never eat?

1:25	Dan Szymborski: Burger King

1:25	Dan Szymborski: I don’t eat much fast food – maybe once a month

1:26	Comment From Aunt Jessie Interested in Fallout 4?

1:26	Dan Szymborski: Yes, but not crazily

1:26	Comment From Sean If you could, how many people would you estimate follow your chats live?

1:26	Dan Szymborski: A few thousand.

1:26	Comment From marc do you watch any reality shows like survivor/big brother?

1:26	Dan Szymborski: Top Chef really.

1:26	Comment From fern are you a Mass Effect fan? Paragon or Renegade? Love interest? Control/Synthesis/Destroy?

1:26	Dan Szymborski: Not huge

1:26	Comment From Max What did you have to do (both in high school and college) in order to get a job at fangraphs? What is your dream job?

1:27	Dan Szymborski: Not directly. The undergraduate math classes obviously led me to doing something that made me get into baseball writing more easily

1:27	Dan Szymborski: But iw asn’t the proximate cause.

1:28	Dan Szymborski: When it comes down to it, I’m a baseball writer because I was in a very useful circle in the mid-90s.

1:28	Comment From Sirras Pretend you’re Farhan Zaidi. Why the hell are you on this livechat?

1:28	Dan Szymborski: Becuase I like FanGraphs?

1:28	Comment From marc is it wrong of me to theoritically only teach my not yet existing kid to throw lefty handed?

1:28	Dan Szymborski: Wrong is depends on your personal ethics.

1:28	Comment From Tommy Bo ever jerk the gravy train en route to the poo town while on the loo in the john?

1:28	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

1:28	Comment From rustydude Ever order 4 stars on spiciness at an asian or thai restaurant?

1:29	Dan Szymborski: Yes. Ask fro “Thai spicy” at a Thai plce.

1:29	Comment From tenaciousdeucer My first kid’s first full sentence was “Daddy, I want bacon.” They aren’t all bad…

1:29	Comment From Bill Deepest into the Earth you have ever been? ie caverns, caves

1:29	Dan Szymborski: These caves south of Columbus OH?

1:29	Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I was deep enough to be below sea level though

1:29	Comment From Sean If thousands of people are following, how do I get 4 questions answered in lightning round? Just not many people asking stuff?

1:29	Dan Szymborski: Strangely, more people read, but fewer ask questions in the Lightning Round

1:30	Dan Szymborski: I think people just like me answering weird questions

1:30	Comment From Aunt Jessie If you got a puppy, do you think your cats would raise it to be a cat?

1:30	Dan Szymborski: I would guess so. They’d probably avoid the puppy.

1:30	Comment From Greg I’ve agreed to having one kid with my girlfriend, but she wants two. Give me an argument to make her only want one. I’ve tried cost but apparently money isn’t an issue in her head.

1:30	Dan Szymborski: Tell her everyone in your family is a psycho and only have one kid because every time they had two, one murdered the other

1:30	Comment From ar are the solo adventures in hearthstone worth playing? is there some way to not pay for them?

1:31	Dan Szymborski: Grinding out gold. The sol adventures are fun, especially on the hard mode.

1:31	Dan Szymborski: Realistically, card games require money. You’re still better off than Magic, in which competitive decks typically start at around $75

1:31	Comment From Maxamuz Don't eat fast food.

1:31	Comment From Vance Seinfeld or Curb?

1:31	Dan Szymborski: Seinfeld

1:31	Comment From Sirras Question you wished somebody would ask in the lightning round?

1:32	Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a particular one. I think if you want someone to ask you a question, you’re kind of a dickhead.

1:32

Comment From Billy
I am at a crossroads in my life and I don’t know what to do, and instead of rising to the challenge of deciding what lies in my future I am receding further and further into the fearful dark corners of both the world and my mind. How do I break what seems to be the continual pattern of indecision and terror that rules my life, as well as the crippling insecurity and self-doubt?

1:32	Dan Szymborski: Alcohol?

1:32	Comment From jocephus have you played plants vs zombies?

1:33	Dan Szymborski: No, actually. I don’t much play casual games

1:33	Comment From Bill Did you see and like Birdman?

1:33	Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen it.

1:33	Comment From Sirras Are you kind of a dickhead?

1:33	Dan Szymborski: Yes, but not a full one.

1:33	Comment From marc black jack, slots, roulette or other?

1:33	Dan Szymborski: Poker

1:33	Comment From ar seems like Inspire is going to be way more powerful than virtually everything else in the game. like i think they are way underestimating how powerful it will be?

1:33	Dan Szymborski: No. I don’t actually think Inspire is all that good.

1:33	Dan Szymborski: It’s too slow.

1:33	Comment From Vic I live just 1.5 miles from Stebbins Anderson. That’s an odd store.

1:34	Dan Szymborski: I worked there in high school. Though I guess I must have answered a questions about my first job.

1:34	Dan Szymborski: Going back to previous question – Inspire effects are powerful, but the cards themselves aren’t. There’s very little to stop aggressive or combo decks to get there.

1:35	Dan Szymborski: How would you stop face hunter? There’s exactly one card so far that has value there: the shaman Totem Golem thing (is that what it’s called?)

1:36	Dan Szymborski: Like people talk about the 1/8 tournament medic stopping aggro decks. But it doesn’t – aggro decks will simply ignore it and you’ve spent round 4 doing little that will win you the game.

1:36	Comment From Aunt Jessie Have you ever considered gardening? (I ask as I remember I need to water my plants before they cook in some 100 degree california sun)

1:36	Dan Szymborski: I’m not much for landscaping type things. I chose my lawnmower based on it’s ability to mudrer everything it toched.

1:36	Comment From Vance Would that make you a flaccid head?

1:36	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure.

1:36	Comment From marc i did a regression analysis for econ sr thesis on factors that might explain a pitchers effectiveness as well as injury. Can i do anything with this? would getting it published somewhere help get a job in baseball in anyway?

1:37	Dan Szymborski: Kind of off-topic for the Lightning Round, but it’s always useful publishing

1:37	Comment From Vance Keaton, Chaplin, or Lloyd?

1:37	Dan Szymborski: Chaplin

1:37	Comment From Daniel Unless they add more anti aggro (board clears) inspire cards won’t work and no one will play them.

1:37	Dan Szymborski: Bingo. It’s the BRM dragons all over again.

1:37	Dan Szymborski: At least so far.

1:37	Dan Szymborski: Dragons are cool. They suck in actual competitive games.

1:37	Dan Szymborski: Look at Chromaggus. Cool card. Powerful effect. Terrible in constructed.

1:38	Comment From Maxamuz You have a time machine and you can do one of two things. A. Kill Hitler and the holocaust never happens but you get no credit. B. Buy 25% Google Stock at its cheapest cash out at its peak. You choose which?

1:38	Dan Szymborski: Probably A.

1:38	Dan Szymborski: Though to be honest, I’ve never killed anybody, so I’m not sure.

1:38	Comment From The Thinker What if our quest to find life in space turns up not only life, but a way to bring the dead back to life here? Applause or chaos?

1:38	Dan Szymborski: Both.

1:38	Comment From Simple Country Hyper-Chicken you ever been to Portland? What’d you think?

1:39	Dan Szymborski: It was hot and the panhandlers seemed kind of lazy compared to east coasters.

1:39	Dan Szymborski: I was there in July about a decade ago and it was during a crazy heat wave

1:39	Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to leave.

1:39	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!

1:40	Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can read me work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, and ZimSmash on Twitch, though the last is mostly out of baseball season.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/27/15