Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/20/18

Matt: Who is less likely to break my heart this week – Bumgarner at Mets, or Pivetta in TOR?

Dan Szymborski: Pivetta mainly. The Mets are sadder.

Dbo: Whoa, new chat time. Did Carson finally decide to have two Szym chats, one for food and one for baseball?

Dan Szymborski: As Travis has moved on to 538, I reclaimed my old, classic time slot.

Dan Szymborski: When Travis came aboard, it was important to introduce him to the FanGraphs audience that may not have been as familiar with his work as mine, plus since I was only an auxiliary fangraphser, it didn’t make sense to let me keep the sweeter time slot over a paid employee!

Pie: How does ZiPs view Kopech ROS/next few years?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is very amusing with Kopech. He doesn’t have anything resembling a normal curve, it’s actually bimodal – ZiPS thinks it more likely he’s a superstar or horrible than just OK.

The Ghost of Dan’s Grandma: Come give your grandma a kiss

Dan Szymborski: Why can’t my ghost grandmother come here? And when did she learn to use the internet?

tedthrilliams: what percent chance would you give oakland of taking the divison? the projections say roughly 10% which seems insanely low to me esp. considering the astros have a tough schedule to close out the year

Dan Szymborski: Maybe 15%, but the Astros do have the stronger roster.

Vslyke: Do you see Cedric Mullins as a long-term starter for the Orioles? If so, does that say more about Mullins or the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced he is, but rebuilding teams should give players like Mullins the opportunity to defy the critics.

Doug: So the Angels are .500-ish and have Mike Trout for two more years. Assuming they can’t extend him, which is the better strategy: trade him now while his value is still extremely high or go all in on these next two years?

Dan Szymborski: Go all-in simply because I don’t envision a scenario in which they actually trade Trout.

Matt: What is ZiPS’s projection likely to be for Vlad Jr & Bo Bichette in 2019?

Dan Szymborski: Let’ snot leak all the goodies!

Dbo: I can’t believe the Orioles were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs last night, I thought they were gonna turn it around and make a run, ya know?

Jim Leyland Palmer: Mr. Dan, is Walker Buehler a budding Ace? He has been phenomenal of late

Dan Szymborski: He obviously has that potential!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS certainly likes him

Stale: What do you make of what Odor’s been doing this last month or two? So many ups and down in his career so far. Which is the real Odor we’re going to see in the future?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t dug into the month-by-month splits for plate discipline stuff, but he looks like he’s been quite a bit better. Though it could be confirmation bias.

Dan Szymborski: I t hink in the end, he’ll be about what we thought him to be on average, a lowish OBP 2B with a big power upside.

Dan Szymborski: He’s also the subject of one of my favorite WWE2K videos I’ve made.

Dan Szymborski: https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/997494190899695616

Dbo: What is a worse crime, putting chili in your chili or putting chocolate in your chili?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Kevin Pillar: Plz help Gibbons wont let me out of the clubhouse

Bing Russell : Will Danny Glover ever coach in the majors again?

Jose: Should Clayton Kershaw opt out?

Dan Szymborski: No

CamdenWarehouse: is there a blood feud between baseball writers who have cats and those that have dogs? Are you and Calcaterra the leaders of the former?

Dan Szymborski: I like dogs too!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like waking up at 6 AM to go for a walk though.

Dbo: Which of the NL Division races do you see being undetermined the latest in the season?

Dan Szymborski: NL East

Bork: The Orioles are a major league baseball team

Dan Szymborski: ish

Bo: 4-game sweep at home cause for concern as a Braves fan? It seems our major weaknesses were exposed.

Dan Szymborski: Sweeps are always worrisome, but it’s dangerous to draw deep conclusions from them.

Moltar: I am throwing my weight behind A-Rod as Fully Autonomous Mets GM. I was honestly astounded to hear a national commentator call out the Mets owners explicitly, even mentioning Fred and Jeff Wilpon by name! And he was absolutely correct, the biggest thing the Mets need is an autonomous chief executive to run things from top to bottom.

Dan Szymborski: Fat chance

Dan Szymborski: The chef de cuisine?

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I’m giving you a lot of power here, but what do we call the 4-5 inning guy who comes in after the opener? Kiley used “second pitcher” in his recent article, but that doesn’t feel descriptive or elegant enough.

Dan Szymborski: Pitcher de cuisine? What’s pitcher in baseball terms in French?

Dan Szymborski: Does lanceur work?

Bo: With Harper and Murphy reportedly hitting waivers over the weekend, is Rizzo waiving the white flag on this season? Chances they deal anyone?

Dan Szymborski: It didn’t make sense to try to pass them through waivers right at the deadline if you’re on the fence about competing.

Dan Szymborski: Once you pull ’em back that one time, the waivers become irrevocable.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Harper gets traded in the end. Murphy might.

Bing Russell : What do you think AJ Reed could do as a starting 1Bmen or DH if give a full time job?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’d be in the 40th percentile of 1B starters, a fill-in for a team like the Rockies.

Dan Szymborski: Justin Bourish?

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is the Brewers bullpen falling apart from overuse?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think their usage, in the end, is crazily different from average, either innings or number of appearances

andy: If the Nats sell off parts now that they’re out of it, could the Rockies jump on anything there? Wouldn’t Wieters be at least a semi improvement? Or is it really a front office so stubborn they won’t improve their team?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure I’d even call Wieters an improvement.

Dan Szymborski: This is a team that did nothing for the offense at the deadline except give Holliday a mascot minor-league deal.

Dan Szymborski: They didn’t even try to claim Bour.

Dan Szymborski: The team is apparently limited to Guys Bud Black Has Heard Of But Bud Black Hasn’t Learned New Names Since 2014.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Brewers have a lot of crappy teams left on the schedule. Is this the time they right the ship and make a run, or is the team’s suddenly exposed pitching staff and inconsistent offense going to sink them?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have their schedule as weaker than other teams in the division except fo rthe Cardijnals

James: Wil Myers: Third Baseman. Yay or nay?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually seen him in his 3B starts, but it’s something worth trying.

Dbo: Emojis and Peanuts are back!

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: What are your thoughts on my idea to cut down on time: instead of commercials, have a permanent ad bar on the bottom or top of the screen.  Then during inning/pitching changes, have baseball trivia, highlights, tips for little leaguers, etc.

Dan Szymborski: Commercials are simply way more valuable, so you’re not going to yank them away.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: How much longer do teams who were great a few years ago like the Pirates and Giants keep trying patch holes / make incremental upgrades with their current groups of players before finally being forced into reckoning with needing to rebuild?

Dan Szymborski: The Giants sooner than later.

Dan Szymborski: Pirates still have a path, though they need to be a bit more aggressive.

Pencil 15: I was just thinking Michael Kopech would be the best pitcher on the Cubs’ $130M pitching staff today.  Is that crazy?

Dan Szymborski: Probably a LITTLE premature.

CamdenWarehouse: I probably shouldn’t get excited about Rodon at this point. On the other hand, he’s pitched into the 8th in 6 of 12 starts this year.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS adores Rodon.

Bo: Who do you think ends up taking the NL East?

Dan Szymborski: I think Philly by a hair.

Stanton: With Didi now hurt, I shall be the entire Yankee offense for the remainder of August. Yet we’ll probably still be okay, or do you think we go get a, say, Murphy on waivers?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Yankees do anything major at this point. The math disincentivizes it.

JayRam: Season ends today, do I win MVP?

Dan Szymborski: I think J.D. Martinez actually wins the vote, though I would not vote for him.

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s a moot case as I’m in an NL chapter.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is Harper still a Nat on September 1st?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

CamdenWarehouse: Did you just refer to ZIPS projections as “snot leak”?

Dan Szymborski: Bayesian boogers.

Bork: Ever consider leaking out incorrect ZiPS info to mess with people’s fantasy stuff ?

Dan Szymborski: No, reputation is very important.

Pencil 15: Now that Kopech is up, who is the next Uber-exciting pitching prospect you can’t wait to see in the bigs?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still excited to see Honeywell’s return next year.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: When will the Orioles be good again?

Dan Szymborski: Way too early to say

Matt: What’s the largest mammal you think you could take in a fight? One on one, no weapons or armor and it’s in the animals natural habitat.

Dan Szymborski: Human?

Kike’s Tight Pants: I cannot remember a time the NL was this tightly packed and competitive. The # of teams with a chance to make the playoffs is huge and none of them are separating from the pack either. It’s anarchy.

Dan Szymborski: The AL and NL have flipped a bit. The NL was the bifurcated one a few years ago

D-Cat: Who is your favorite Tiger’s prospect?

Dan Szymborski: Mize!

Bo: What’s a bigger late August surprise – Nationals or Dodgers not being in first place?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers, though it depends on when you’re being surprised.

Jake Junis Priest: Cedric Mullins is making me happier about being an O’s fan. Don’t spoil it!

Slapshot: If this were the late 1990s, where would Khris Davis finish in the AL MVP voting given the power numbers he’s putting up and the A’s incredible performance of late?

Dan Szymborski: He’d do well I think and I dont’ think he’d do terribly in 2018 even.

Dan Szymborski: Writers aren’t simply ranking by the WARs

bosoxforlife: Jacob deGrom was actually allowed to pitch a CG yesterday. Is it time to let the great pitchers go all the way again. Forget the lack of offense, he has lost several wins because of the Mets bullpen. This idea that he loses his stuff is rendered absurd by the fact that his next to last pitch was his fastest of the game, a smooth 99.

Bo: What are your thoughts on the “special” games such as the Little League Classic, the Fort Bragg game, and so forth? I personally think it’s great for MLB but they need to do a better job marketing them.

Dan Szymborski: I like fun games. There are 2430 of them after all, be a little creative!

Dan Szymborski: MLB’s marketing seems to generally be awful

Chock Full O Nuts: Are pistachios just tree oysters?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say yes.

Jeffy: Thought of Trout as a MVP shoe in 2 months ago but now its looking like JRam and Mookie might both be better candidates. Is it possible the voters give it to Trout just bc it seems like he should have 3-4 by now instead of just two? Reverse voter fatigue?

Dan Szymborski: It would be funny if they gave Trout an easy walk to the MVP when it’s finally not completely obvious he’s the MVP

Moltar: Isn’t there already a name for a reliever that throws 4-5 innings but doesn’t start a game? Back in my day (I’m 31), they were called “long relievers” or “the long man”. I know today’s Rays-esque second pitcher is not analogous to the long relievers of yore, but the name still fits!

Dan Szymborski: I think that stretches the purpose.

john cale: rougned odor – greatest in-season turnaround ever?

Dan Szymborski: Carpenter had a below .600 OPS in mid-*MAY*

Dan Szymborski: Some of the questions I’m not answering because there are pieces in the works.

All Cats Are Beautiful : Is there a better example of a AAAA player than Jabari Blash?

Dan Szymborski: Dave McCarty?

Slapshot: Which title match was more disappointing last night – Rousey/Bliss or Lesnar/Reigns?

Dan Szymborski: The whole PPV was rather boring.

Dan Szymborski: Even matches you think should have been good were dull as dishwater.

McCovey Cove: Nobody hits balls into my tranquil waters anymore. The last splash ball was on May 15th 🙁

Jose Iglemirez: Not sure I remember a season where there was only 1 90-win team in either league. Chances of it happening this year and is that a result of more competition in the NL or just inferior play?

Dan Szymborski: There are enough teams projected to the high 80s that it would be unlikely there would only be one team that actually only ended up breaking 90 in the NL

David: If the Cardinals end up making the playoffs, should Mike Shildt be MOY??

Dan Szymborski: Too many Cinderellas this year.

Johnny Coconuts: Red Sox have avg exit velo of 89.9, xBA of .276, and xSLG of .498. Meaning collectively, the Red Sox have the output of a top 75 hitter by that standard. Crazy, right?

Derek in Little Rock: I’m rooting for the Braves to win the NL East on your behalf, Dan.

Mitch: Do you think the Yankees should be giving Justus Sheffield the callup soon? He can’t possibly be worse than what Luis Cessa has been crapping out.

Dan Szymborski: I would.

All Cats Are Beautiful : Did anyone help you construct zips?  Is there a secret Wozniak to your Jobs?

Dan Szymborski: No, with the exception of Chris Dial and I talking about doing a projection system in the 90s.

Dan Szymborski: So I’d give Dialman credit for spiritual contribution.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe I even TOLD anyone what I was working on.

randplaty: How do we evaluate Hunter Renfroe when it comes to defense? DRS and UZR disagree pretty strongly. And if UZR is right, he’s worth very little. But if DRS is right, he’s valuable.

Dan Szymborski: Or it could be in the mdidle

Bingo: Are Luhnow and Theo Epstein overrated? Both have executed rebuilds well but trading Eloy and Gleyber might not look good in 5 years and for Luhnow, they cut JD and drafted Aiken and Appel.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re overrated as long as one doesn’t get the weird idea th at great GMs are flawless pearls

CamdenWarehouse: your reputation is so important that you’ve never had a joke reported as news by MLB

Dan Szymborski: That was Baumann, right?

April: A-Rod also was extolling the virtues of Jose Bautista as a current complete MLB player… maybe he shouldn’t run a team.

hungery: i’m tired of food, but there are no alternatives.

James: Can the Mariners possibly contend past this year, or are they headed towards the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: I think there are long-term questions, but they’re not near O’s yet.

Josh Nelson: Have you tried the new Lays potato chip flavors? The bacon wrapped jalapeno popper chips are decent. The deep dish pizza is pretty much pizza sauce chips. I won’t touch the ketchup ones.

Dan Szymborski: They sound gross.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t eat junk food very often.

Dan Szymborski: If I eat potato chips, it’s usually because I picked up a big bag of Utz crab chips in one of my baltimore trips.

Baseball-Reference: Do you respect me

Dan Szymborski: Why wouldn’t I?

Moose_Bolton: What is the best Reese’s variant? I’m partial to the Nutrageous, but the Big Cups are also pretty good.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really like peanut butter, I prefer just straight unsalted peanuts

David: As a fan, which team do you hate the most?

Dan Szymborski: Growing up it would be the Yankees, but working in this field for a long time has kind of ironed out any real hatred for anyone.

Dan Szymborski: Except Murray Chass.

Woot: Any ideas for new service time rules? I dont see service time manipulation as a HUGE problem currently, but the whole system seems less than ideal

Dan Szymborski: I think the problem is that if you have bright lines, then there’s always going to be someone manipulated by the team to be on their side of the bright lines. If it’s more graduated, then you may end up with an overcomplicated mess.

Dusty: Thoughts on Twins prospect Wander Javier, do you like his upside?

Dan Szymborski: Has a really interesting power upside, though still a lot of questiosn to be answered.

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.

Dan Szymborski: Yes?

Liam: How soon to we see Eloy now that Kopech got the call?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit surprised that Kopech ended upc hecking his box first

Johnny Coconuts: Hey, that’s “World Series Champion” Dave McCarty to you.

Lucas Giolito: Am I officially a bust with no hope of redemption?

Dan Szymborski: To be an unredeemable pitcher is a lot harder. PItchers are weird sometimes

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Dear Fangraphs, I never thought it would happen to me.  I was watching a baseball game and a broadcaster over the age of 50 used wRC+.

David: I thought the WWE ended when the attitude era ended!

Mitch: Do you have a favorite sleeper prospect in the Yankees’ system?

Dan Szymborski: Does Garrett Whitlock still count?

Herbie: Which team has the worse outcome for the next few years? Orioles or Royals?

Dan Szymborski: Orioles, which will be positive for them – winning in 2019-2020 is pretty much worthless for them.

Ryan: Does Matt Chapman = Brooks Robinson?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say he’s having a Brooks Robinson season.

Dan Szymborski: But Brooks Robinson became Brooks Robinson by having LOTS of Brooks Robinson seasons.

Phil: When did your parents take your professional choices seriously? It can’t have been an easy sell to say you were dedicating your time to building a baseball projection system…

Dan Szymborski: The way I was raised, it wouldn’t have even occurred to my family to try to make my choices for me.

Dan Szymborski: My family was extremely close (and the ones that remain still are), but it was a very laissez-faire upbringing.

Dan Szymborski: Without sounding like a total douchenozzle, both my sister and I were precocious. There was a belief that we had to learn the pros and cons of our decisions growing-up.

Dan Szymborski: Not to say that it’s better as there are some obvious downsides.

Dan Szymborski: We grew up very independent thinkers, very self-acutalized. But we also grew up without much in the way of discipline.

CamdenWarehouse: yeah, it was Baumann. It’s hilarious that it happened and also that someone could read the joke and think Bauer might actually be doing/saying this

Ryan: What about Old Bay peanuts?

Dan Szymborski: Never had Old Bay peanuts.

Concerned Fan: What rebuilding team are you most worried about never actually improving?

Dan Szymborski: KC

Jonny: What is your opinion of Dan Duquette?  As potential GM for the Mets, would that be an upgrade over the Alderson regime?

Dan Szymborski: I think it would be absolutely cruel to subject the poor guy to the Mets ownership after working for the Orioles ownership.

Rougned Odor: Hi, I’m Rougned Odor.  Have you met my brother Rougned Odor?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s pretty funny

Herbie: Are there any soon to be big name free agents that might fall through the cracks and get a smaller deal than expected, ala J.D. Martinez?

Dan Szymborski: Donaldson?

pill form: if science created full meals in pill form would you go that route?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how good they are!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not itnerested in soylent

Dan Szymborski: (the drink)

Dan Szymborski: (not hte people)

Shirley Temple of Doom: Ok, Gerald has asked that question in every chat for like 2 weeks. Does anyone know what the deal / joke / gimmick is with this?

Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of weird chat memes, like Nick Markakis and duck-sized horses.

Eric Blair : Jays seem to prefer to sell low and then blame AA because they do not have more pitching prospects. True or false.

Dan Szymborski:

Erica: utz are better than nuts

hungery: the bubble gum food from willy wonka seemed like a bad idea.  just stick to amazing chocolate.

Dan Szymborski: I always liked the everlasting gobstoppers. Not the movie ones, the ones you can buy

Erica: shut up gerald

All Cats Are Beautiful : What is the r^2 between baseball skill and WAR?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you Pearson that up.

Hello: Is Jeff McNeil interesting yet?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been interesting for months!

Bob: Jose Peraza, still only 24
2017
518 PA, .259-.297-.324-.622
2018
528 PA, .292-.334-.412-.74

Even Older Than You: Any fun memories of the good old rec.sport.baseball days that you can share (most of the young guys on this chat would have no idea what we were talking about)?

Dan Szymborski: There is of course Ronald L. Maynard, who would threaten to report people who mentioend sabermetrics in rec.sport.baseball as off-topic.

Dan Szymborski: And James Weisberg, who started a three year thread fighting with every 90s sabermetrics guy around at the time about Cobb vs. Ruth.

Bart: I’ll be retiring from my current job soon and will be looking for new hobbies, probably sports related.  Any suggestions?

Dan Szymborski: There are TONS of hobbies! Really just find what you like

Dan Szymborski: Don’t pick a hobby because dickhead internet writer stranger suggests it! I don’t know what you like!

Dan Szymborski: I like playing video games; hobbies where you don’t put on pants are astounding.

CamdenWarehouse: so you ARE interested in eating soylent made from people?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I am kind of curious.

Dayton Moore Talking Head: How many Royals losing seasons does it take to offset the one World Series title and Dayton Moore gets fired?

Dan Szymborski: 3?

Dbo: Crab seasoning is the best seasoning. Is there such a thing as crab chili?

Dan Szymborski: Seems easier to just cake the crab.

Dan Szymborski: Of course, Utz doesn’t call it Old Bay, but we all know that it’s Old Bay.

hungery: how much would a gobstopper cost in today’s dollars(we are assuming it is not made by apple/igobstopper and therefore costing one million dollars)?

Dan Szymborski: $50?

Dan Szymborski: Forever candy isn’t *that* valuable; you can lose it or get fuzzballs or cat fur stuck to it or something

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Is your joining of Fangraphs a Willy Wonka-like test to see if you can win the WAR Factory?

Dan Szymborski: WE DIDN’T GIVE TRAVIS AN OOMPA-LOOMPA SONG

Walt: Did you develop an aversion to the word “cordially” because of Maynard?

Dan Szymborski: Heh

Justin: At what point will it matter that the Astros actually play like a great team rather than being as talented/peripherally sound as one?

Dan Szymborski: It’s mattering right now.

Dan Szymborski: It “shouldn’t” be this close. But it is.

Matt: I understand that I don’t know much about the inner workings of the industry, but it seems that the strong majority of talking heads hold the idea that teams shouldn’t trade impending-FA player if they have hope to resign them. This idea seems absurd. Even aside form the Chapman example – let’s say Harper wants to resign with the Nats, wouldn’t it be in his best interest to allow them to convert his current value into future value potentially surrounding him for his next deal?

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, if a trade is done the right way and the player is cooperative, most players are realistic enough.

Dan Szymborski: Though there are exceptions.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you avoid trading players for this reason.

Dan Szymborski: Unless it’s a player you REALLY want back and the player is extremely resistant to it.

Ben: I’m calling it. Braves & Phillies collapse in Sept and the the Nats win the East with just 84  wins.

John Beasley: T/F: If the sole purpose of expansion was to make money for the owners, the new teams would be in Brooklyn and Boston.

Dan Szymborski: I’d put a team in Brooklyn and one in NC

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Nick Markakis is not a meme:   he’s an All-Star

Dan Szymborski: The meme of asking me Markakis questions.

Dan Szymborski: Michael Jordan being a legendary basketball player doesn’t keep Crying Jordan from being a meme.

John Beasley: Get paid $300 every time the Orioles score a run but do a shot every time they allow a run. One could make tens of thousands over the course of a season. Worth the risk?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d do it.

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully a 20-run-allowed game takes like five hours.

CamdenWarehouse: breaking news: Dan compares Nick Markakis to Michael Jordan

Scott: Shouldn’t MLB also be looking at which markets are growing when placing teams? That would allow the fan base to mature.

Dan Szymborski: They should, but markets have to be large enough to support hte team in a non-speculative fashion.

Dan Szymborski: A crappy, poor team for a decade will just be forgotten as the market grows.

Dan Szymborski: Miami could magically become the world’s largest and most wealthiest city in 10 years and they still won’t give a crap about the Marlins.

James: Hinch hasn’t been renewed, Astros are not playing as well as they should, is he gone either way at the end of the year?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to wrap things up for another week!  Thanks for joining me!

Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, I am now a senior writer for FanGraphs and you’re stuck with me.

Dan Szymborski: Though I am still occasionally contributing to ESPN.com and always residing in dumbass fashion at DSzymborski on Twitter.