Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/20/20

Dan Szymborski: This is a chat.

ashtray: ZiPs really does not seem to like Andrew Vaughn despite all of the “most polished hitter” reputation he’s getting. What’s the issue?

Dan Szymborski: Well, ZiPS is not a scout and it’s going to be skeptical of most college players.

Dan Szymborski: Until they do stuff in the minors.

Dan Szymborski: And it wasn’t particularly enthralled by his minor league performance, which was largely walk-driven.

Blue Morpho: Any takeaways from Mize’s first start?

Dan Szymborski: I thought he looked quite poised for a guy making his debut. His slider and splitter were fooling the Sox a lot, but he did hang a few mistakes.

Dan Szymborski: And that’s one of the biggest differences between high minors and majors: the margin for error.

Cakes&Kakes: Remember Val Majewski? He seemed like a cool dude. Also, Remember Mike Yastrzemski? Whatever happened to that dude, so many promising outfielders, so little production, glad Dwight Smith, Jr. is covering the corners

Dan Szymborski: I’m not actually sure what the question is.

Dan Szymborski: I think the O’s can be forgiven for missing on mini-Yaz. It’s not like he had a long career of minor league slugging.

Jon: Proposal by Cubs announcers: split into three leagues: East, Central, West. Top two from each with a couple wild cards. Greatest idea ever, yes?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Dan Szymborski: Unless we’re talking no-division leagues

sean: how quickly do you expect victor robles’ sprint speed, and many other laggards, to revert closer to last years speed?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t studied the direct predictability of sprint speed statcast on sprint speed statcast in short periods.

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine it’s not a volatile measure and mostly injury related.

Trent Hauser: Jason Heyward! What to make of this? Is he this year’s Ian Happ for the Cubs – serious rebreakout but SSS?

Dan Szymborski: We’ve been down this road before with him. I’m going to be skeptical for now.

sean: lindblom or kuhl ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on your needs. Kuhl is probably the safer choice, but Lindblom is for the gambler.

David K: Is Dom Smith for real? Thoughts on Lugo to the rotation?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good chance that his baseline’s moved up a bit, probably more than for someone like Heyward. He’s really going all-in on the pitches he likes this year. His future in NY is probably safer if DH doesn’t go away again

Isolated Thinker: Which was more dangerous:  Clevinger and Plesac going out and exposing themselves or Laureano activating a brawl?  My point is I don’t think the Laureano suspension was adequate enough to deter future brawls, while Clevinger and Plesac have missed significantly more playing time.  I understand that what Clevinger and Plesac did was “premeditated” as opposed to Laureano who was acting in the heat of the moment.  Your thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I think Clevinger and Plesac violated by design as you note and I think from a punishment standpoint, you have to consider that as significant.

Dan Szymborski: Activating a brawl is bad, but he was also provoked and while that doens’t excuse him, it’s a mitigating factor.

Dan Szymborski: MLB generally underpenalizes for brawls I feel and fighting, but that’s something that MLB has to deal with on a systemic level, not just singling out someone as an example.

Dan Szymborski: I mean geez, Carlos Quentin got 8 games for breaking Greinke’s collarbone.

Andrew: Altuve has a .202 BABIP so far…his exit velo is where its always been, and his hard-hit% is as well. His Ks are up a bit (they’ve been climbing the last few years as he’s hit with more power). Is he fine or not fine?

Dan Szymborski: Sounds like a zBABIP question!

Dan Szymborski: (Srory, opening will get back to this Q when it’s open)

Guest: Is Thom Brenaman employed by Fox Sports, or by the Reds? Should they just fire him? Will they?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the exact legal situation. I *think* that from a technical standpoint, he works for the Reds *and* Fox Sports while the Reds *and* Fox Sports have a close partnership

Dan Szymborski: I’d personally fire him.

Guest: are you a chill meat purist? I made some with pork that was good.

Dan Szymborski: I think it ought to be beef, but another meat + chili I feel is more genuine than beef + all sorts of stuff thrown in

Jake: Putting away the very much written rule of journalistic objectivity, you’re rooting for the Padres, right? How can you not?

Dan Szymborski: Fandom for me is complicated since there are so many levels. Things I like. Things I like because they make me look smart instead of dumb. Things I don’t like but are objectively good.

Dan Szymborski: I like the Padres and hope they do well, but I don’t know how much of it is me wanting to not look dumb since I projected them aggressively. It’s hard to compartmentalize that kind of thing.

Dan Szymborski: I do strive to be objective beyond all things. I mean, I make lots of jokes about the Rockies, but when it comes to the bottom-line analysis, I try to be dispassionate.

Dan Szymborski: That doesn’t work for any journalist and I’m casting no shade on anyone. That’s just works for me and the things I do.

Ben Davis Bunts: True or False:  Chris Paddack is the Padres’ fourth best starting pitcher

Dan Szymborski: I’d say second. I think Lamet’s just on antoher level at the moment. I’m not sure Richards is actually better, we rarely see much of Richards

Joe: For comparison sake (to Tatis) what did ZIPS predict Trout would do in years 3 through 10?

Dan Szymborski: Off hand, I think ZiPS had Trout 2 WAR or so under Tatis if you start Tatis with a baseline of 140 games

Dan Szymborski: (which is an important caveat)

Dan Szymborski: It’s also important to remember at the end of my theoretical eight year Tatis extension, Trout will be 37!

Guest: Obviously a small sample, but any cause for concern with Giolito’s control (or lack thereof) thus far? It looks like ZiPS still loves him.

Dan Szymborski: Some. The more robust season-to-season ZiPS model would be more worried than the simpler in-season one.

Trent Hauser: What’s Yu got to do? I feel like if he were an American pitcher we’d be celebrating more than just the breadth of his repertoire

Dan Szymborski: He’s been tremendous!

Dan Szymborski: Ben wrote about Darvish a couple weeks ago.

Dan Szymborski: I’m waiting for a suitable time to write about him

Joe: Hosmer is hitting the ball in the air this year…how long do I have to wait to believe he actually made a change and this isn’t a fluke?

Dan Szymborski: I think there are good reasons to be hopeful.

New Bork: Will you be replacing Thom Brennaman?

Dan Szymborski: Ha. No.

Dan Szymborski: At best, I’d be occasional third dude color guy who once in a while has a stat or a dumb joke.

Sonny: Xander trade rumors on MLB site are confusing. For as bad as Boston has been do they really not see X as a contributor on next good team?

Dan Szymborski: Trade rumors are always confusing. They conflict and teams sometimes leak things to specific reporters for specific purposes.

Cakes&Kakes: Just throwing out Mo Gabba’s name for anyone who hasn’t heard it or his story. Support his family, and remember life is hard, but you can strive to make it better.

Dan Szymborski: Mo Gaba was a very sad story, definitely look it up people!

JJ: Those ZiPS for Tatis Jr. are otherworldly. If a breakeven offer based on those astronomical numbers is 8/225 does it make sense for the Padres to start with something like 8/180 and work up from there this offseason? Or keep a 230+ number and try to make it an 11-12 year deal?

Dan Szymborski: As I said, if I’m the team, I certainly don’t start near those numbers!

Dan Szymborski: I’d start at 8/150 and try to sell it as a 50% bump on Acuna’s deal

Trent Hauser: Mize and Luzardo? Two guys with legit league ace ceilings?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

J-Lo (not that one): Dan did you see Tarik Skubal’s debut? Any reactions?

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately Skubal’s start I missed.

Dan Szymborski: I have a tendency to be watching the wrong games. I missed Pearson’s debut too.

Brian O.: Yes hello is there the option of robot pitching yet?

Dan Szymborski: Only in Super Baseball 2020 and Base Wars.

La Brum: Can we just accept that Tim Anderson is a true 400 BABIP hitter and move on

Dan Szymborski: It would be fun if he were, of course

Jefferson: Does Zips see anything different between Vaughn and torkelson? Most scouting reports seem interchangeable between the two

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s going to be another year before you really get good insight from ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a good record with prospects, but ZiPS is also, again, not a scout.

Sam: Was there a less surprising response to Thom Brennaman’s comments last night than Curt Schilling lamenting cancel culture?

Dan Szymborski: I have problems in a lot of the cases we’ve seen, but Brennaman is nothing like this. He wasn’t making a really dumb joke in private, he wasn’t sharing an unpopular political opinion, he wasn’t a private citizen shamed by a local paper on a slow news day. It was a straight-up nasty slur that he was comfortable saying in his workplace *two seconds before going live to thousands and thousands of people*

Dan Szymborski: Brennaman *should* be fired for this.

Dan Szymborski: And to ever work in a public-facing job again, he’s going to have to change a lot of people’s minds.

JHey: Let’s celebrate the fourth straight season of Heyward “possibly” putting it together. I’m so seriousness, he’s improved in five straight seasons back towards being a productive player.

Jon: Did I hear that you out Craig was coming out with an article to discuss stars that have struggled do fast?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

OddBall Herrera: You’d personally fire him?  I’m a fan of firing people over snail mail myself

Dan Szymborski: O

Dan Szymborski: I’d have fired him on air!

Chris: Kyle Lewis!!

Slapshot: Was Thom Brennaman’s “apology” made better or worse by that absolutely deadpanned home run call he made during the middle of it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure, it was just the weirdest thing.

Dan Szymborski: As I said on Twitter

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD THE PERIOD IS OUTSIDE THE QUOTATION MARK

Big Dawg: Since you already talked about Mize, can you give your first impressions of Dunning?

Dan Szymborski: Dunning also showed some flashes and like Mize, there were a few mistakes that were just crushed

Dan Szymborski: I think he ran out of energy quickly. He was just sloppy at the end of the 4th

Joe: I meant what did ZIPS predict Trout would do in his years 3 to 10 after year 2. So when Trout was Tatis’ age

Dan Szymborski: Oh hold on

Dan Szymborski: Oh, on Altuve, zBABIP thinks Altuve should have a .313 BABIP

Dan Szymborski: I’m doing a zBABIP thing next week.

Dan Szymborski: Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF  + DR WAR   2013 .282 .361 .507 156 607 122 171 28 11 29 83 71 149 8 47 8 2 7 142 9 8.2   2014 .288 .372 .545 155 598 127 172 30 11 34 90 76 146 8 43 7 2 7 155 9 9.2   2015 .293 .381 .573 156 597 133 175 31 11 38 96 81 142 8 47 7 2 7 165 9 10.2   2016 .292 .384 .580 156 593 134 173 30 12 39 97 85 144 8 47 7 2 7 168 9 10.3   2017 .288 .382 .569 156 591 134 170 30 11 38 95 87 145 8 46 7 2 7 165 8 9.9   2018 .287 .385 .568 156 588 134 169 29 11 38 95 90 147 8 45 6 2 7 166 8 10.0   2019 .285 .386 .576 155 583 135 166 29 12 39 96 92 150 8 45 6 2 7 168 8 10.0   2020 .282 .384 .561 154 578 132 163 28 11 37 93 92 149 8 42 6 2 7 163 8 9.4   2021 .282 .383 .553 152 571 129 161 28 11 35 89 90 140 8 39 6 2 7 161 8 9.1   2022 .282 .380 .554 149 561 124 158 26 11 35 87 85 130 8 36 6 2 7 160 7 8.8   2023 .275 .371 .528 144 545 116 150 25 10 31 80 79 122 8 34 6 2 6 151 7 7.7   2024 .273 .367 .508 138 524 108 143 23 8 28 74 74 111 7 25 4 2 6 144 7 6.8   202

Dan Szymborski: Wow, that looks like garbage

Dan Szymborski:

B: Can we continue the weekly trend of you saying nice things about the Cubs pitching?

Guest: We all love position players pitching and all the fun it brings, but has anyone ever looked into emergency backup catchers? I’d be interested in seeing some of the worst single game catching performances of all time!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t anyone’s done that

de la: Is there any chance of adding some kind of Tommy John penalty to Zips? Control seems to be the last thing to come back. Ohtani’s projection this year was optimistic, and with Sale and Syndergaard returning next year, just seems like a projection in line with past performance would be also.

Dan Szymborski: There is one, but there’s a lot of uncertainty in TJ returns

Dan Szymborski: The Ohtani without TJ projection was even better!

The Real Dan Szymborski: SHAME

B: Happy NBA draft lottery day! Would you like to see something like this added to MLB?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: To determine balls, I’d give a ball to each of the non-playoff teams compared to how many more wins they had than the worst team in baseball

DB: Do you think no fans will give us some statitical info on home field advantage and where the “advantadge” comes from? Is the short schedule enough sample size.

Dan Szymborski: Some. I’ve found that HFA and attendance haven’t meant all that much

James: 3B Manny Machado made an over the shoulder basket catch at the warning track in RF this week. I don’t think that was talked about enough.

Guest: I really don’t like how devastating every “Player X goes to IL” headline feels in this shortened season

Dan Szymborski: Because it is!

Dan Szymborski: Oh, there’s a cat behind my monitor!~

Dan Szymborski: All of a sudden, this black head of a cat just appeared between my monitor and my file server

Mike Hawk: Is it karma that Schilling is going to jail with Bannon for fraud…Trevor Bauer wants to know.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, did Schilling get wrapped up in that story? I saw the headline but haven’t read anything yet.

Past Dan Szymborski: This is a chat.

Jorgensen2020: The chaos level on Nov. 4 will be: a) insane or b) yes, insane

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to take the opposite approach and say that November 4 turns out way more boring and orderly than anyone expected.

Dan Szymborski: Everyone with a microphone hates each other now and considering their opponents in disaster porn levels. I think it’ll be surprisingly mundane. Though I could be wrong.

Matt: Am I the only one who wholly disagrees with Woodward’s opinion on Tatis, but particularly due to his inclusion of “I didn’t like it, and that doesn’t mean I’m correct” thought this was a major non-issue? (Aside from the beanballs…I don’t like beanballs)

Dan Szymborski: I dunno

Kvn: Is Anthony Santander for real (and no snarky “yes I believe he exists” answers Dan)

Dan Szymborski: OK then, no, I don’t believe he exists. He’s a Potemkin hitter.

Dan Szymborski: (You have to know trying to defuse my snark just makes me more determined)

Dan Szymborski: More seriously, I think the power is possibly for real. He’s the type of player the O’s should have been looking at and it’s good they did

Dan Szymborski: The O’s have done a lot of things well.

Dan Szymborski: Though I still don’t understand why Chris Davis ever plays again for the O’s

Guest: So – on Altuve/zBABIP…should we take that to mean he’s been somewhat unlucky thus far? I think that’s how I should take that…

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Cakes&Kakes: Steve Trachsel and his bionic shoulder probably has a case for workplace negligence after the 30-3 Rangers game. I’d represent him, if I was a layer, which I am on the internet. Just saying…

B: What does ZIPS project you’re having for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Spaghetti, but I already knew that

Molina Mo Problems: Clevinger for Clint Frazier. Who says no? Yanks cause the need OF depth with all the current IL?

Dan Szymborski: The Indians say no.

Dan Szymborski: Clevinger’s not exiled off the planet or anything.

Sinbad: Can we just suspend Brennaman and maybe get him to do a good amount of community service?

Dan Szymborski: That’s another option, though I’d personally just fire him.

Dan Szymborski: This was beyond any explanation.

Dan Szymborski: If he wants to prove he can redeem himself, that’s great, but he can do that on his time and his dime.

Slapshot: End of chat cat update?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody asked me.

Sonny: Tatis answers my, “what would it take for me to root for a team with Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado?” question

Blue Morpho: Oh boy Bieber vs the Pirates tonight. Prediction on IP/H/ER/BB/SO?

Dan Szymborski: 9/0/0/0/27!

Dan Szymborski: Probably not, but I think I’ll just get the prediction in the books just in case

Dan Szymborski: Or maybe 9/9/0/0/27. He allows the first batter to get a hit every inning, just so he can make them watch him strike out his friends.

Guest: Nov 4: pundits will declare a seismic shift of one sort or another, social media will perform its requisite meltdown, politicians will make or reject claims of a mandate, and then everyone will go back to their daily lives (which in Portland may or may not involve burning tires in the streets)

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but social media melts down every day.

Bob: Thom didn’t just casually say some stupid political opinion or some controversial “hot take” that got caught on a hot mic. He spoke with hate in his heart for an entire group of people. He has a right like we all do to make a living, but he has no right to the privilege of a public platform again. He needs to go. I don’t know how it’s up for debate.

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s what I said!

OddBall Herrera: Conservative estimate on Bieber.  You are discounting the possibility that at least one guy he strikes out makes it to first on a passed ball.  Probably hedge and go 28 Ks

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to take off. I need to write a graf for my Alvarez piece referencing the Bregman injury!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all. Sorry that I was able to not get to all of your questions, but take into consideration that unlike Quarantine Days, we’re at our normal levels of readership.

Past Dan Szymborski: Spaghetti, but I already knew that