Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/21

Dan Szymborski: GAFTERNOON

Rick: Thoughts on Bohm for 2022 and beyond? Was this year just a case of 2nd year struggles or more serious? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK. I have nothing to prove it, but he’s a guy who has had limited time in the upper minors before the majors, so he’s not quite there with the adjust-readjust cycle that’s necessary for long-term success

BEN GAMEL GRADE 80 HAIR: Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez improvements this year for real? Both legit ~50 FV types?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually use FV personally since I think that’s better for scouting, but I’m bullish on both of them now.

Dan Szymborski: Unless they changed parks and I missed it, NW Arkansas doesn’t play anywhere crazy that would explain Melendez and Pratto absolutely killing it this year

Jacques Pederson: Dan, as an Orioles fan, how do you feel about the rebuild?

Dan Szymborski: It’s been tough. The O’s haven’t had much fortune in their pitching prospects and I think they were one of the teams most hurt by the lost 2020 minor league season.

Didace: Don’t you think we could all agree that it’s well past time for everyone with a projection system took a cold, hard look at reality, face facts, and incorporate a lolMets factor into their calculations? Seriously, has any team over the last 10 years under-performed by so much?

Dan Szymborski: I can actually TELL you relative to projections if you give me a minute!

Dan Szymborski: 2011-2020

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (Formatting sucks, but I literally did this in 3 minutes)

Dan Szymborski: That’s 2011-2020

Dan Szymborski: That’s right, I designed a projection system that overrated the Rockies, which feels like a glorious self-own.

Dave: In honor of the Dodgers-Padres game last night, you should chat for 5 hours and 49 minutes

Dan Szymborski: Oh god no

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done marathon chats before, they’re very exhausting!

Dan Szymborski: Especially because I tend to answer a lot of things in rapid-fire fashion

Dan Szymborski: And who would want to listen to me for 5 and a half hours?

Dan Szymborski: Err 6 hours?

zurzles: Can you explain what’s up with Miguel Sano’s UZR/150 at 1B? He has 737.2 innings with a -5.4 UZR. His UZR/150 is -44.7 somehow.

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Dan Szymborski: Something very odd is going on.

Dan Szymborski: I will message Sean, who I dont’ think is on vacation

barney gumble: hey dan. why is andrew heaney so prone to giving up home runs? he has good stuff and decent control

Dan Szymborski: Seems to me that his sinkery fastball something trails to high up in the zone.

Dan Szymborski: (Which I will now check on Statcast)

Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t *explicitly* thrown a sinker in a few years

Dan Szymborski: But pitch classification algorithms still think he does in a lot of applications

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, inconclusive

Dan Szymborski: That’s my rough working theory, I’d have to think about it further

Chris: Mariners are making the playoffs right? Right Dan? Come on Dan, look away from zips and tell me yes!!

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but only because you make me say it

Greg: Does it look like Kopech will be a starter next year? Worth holding onto in a 12 man, 12 keeper league?

Dan Szymborski: I think he is.

Dan Szymborski: However, if he’s not, I think it won’t happen at all.

B: In five years, who will the best player and pitcher in the game be?

Dan Szymborski: Pitcher, I’d still guess Buehler or Cole

Dan Szymborski: Player, Tatis

Dave: Is there any meaningful difference between the calculus behind your preseason projections vs the in-season ROS projections? Or is it the exact same model and the only difference is that the in-season projections have the benefit of additional data from the current season?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. The in-season model is much simpler than the season-to-season one.

Dan Szymborski: For practical reasons.

Dan Szymborski: To do the full model every day, I’d have to have ZiPS running on a PC 24/7

Moose_Bolton: What is your favorite kind of sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: I love a good french dip

Dan Szymborski: Subs, cheesesteak

KB: Pederson and Duvall both have mutual options. Soler is a FA. How many of them do you see sticking around in Atlanta for 2022?

Dan Szymborski: I think Duvall could come back

SKU…bal: Dan, have you heard anything concrete about plans to limit Tarik Skubal’s innings down the stretch–whether by shortened starts, staggered starts, putting him in the ‘pen, or what-have-you? He’s at 128 now, after pitching just 32 last year (though he pitched 122.1 in the minors in ’19).

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard anything concrete, but I suspect they’ll shorten his starts in September considering they’ve explicitly done it with Mize

Dan Szymborski:

Kyler: You ever played Super Mega Baseball? No MLB license but man what a fun game.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually. I hear great things about it, but with MLB the Show, I usually want to play MLB the Show

DBA: How much weight, beyond normal park adjustments, would Zips factor into Willy Adames forecast given his striking Trop/non-Trop career splits?  (My assumption is the answer is something like ‘600 PAs is too few to be meaningful/I think it’s at least partly real but won’t put my finger on the scale’ – but am curious.)

Dan Szymborski: Player-specific home-road splits aren’t very predictive at all

Dan Szymborski: The actual park factors are far more so.

Dan Szymborski: It’s too noisy

Dan Szymborski: It’s worse than player-specific platoon splits vs. generic platoon splits, and there, it’s like 3000 PA for hitters until they become equally predictive

Dan Szymborski: It leads people to underrate the occasional Rockie

Dan Szymborski: like Bichette

Dan Szymborski: You can’t just look at the road stats

Dan Szymborski: Look at adjusted home stats.

Matt: Is there any reason why Statcast can’t measure bat speed?

Dan Szymborski: Harder to track maybe? The specifics of the tracking is a little out of my wheelhouse

tz: Looking at Cedric Mullins II breakout season, it looks like the only time he put up numbers like this in the minors was when he repeated a level.  Are there other guys who showed a pattern of needing to acclimate longer at a minor league level who then went on to a MLB breakout in their 2nd or 3rd season?

Dan Szymborski: There are guys like that, but it’s usually hard to find a *pattern*

Dan Szymborski: So it’s mostly keep trying

Bigfoot Erotica: Given that the Nats have gotten non-cipher like performances from Gerardo Parra and now Alcides Escobar, would you bet against a Chris Davis redemption in DC somewhere around 2023?

Dan Szymborski: That’s probably a birdge too far

>this guy<: Dan what is the S.D. year to year per team from that table above? aka Which team is the most unpredictable?

Dan Szymborski: hang on

Dan Szymborski: Least predictable: O’s, A’s, Diamondbacks, Red Sox

Dan Szymborski: Most: Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, Cardinals

Guest: What would a Nats trade package for Bryan Reynolds look like? Would Robles, Rutledge and more do it?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see the lure of Robles for the Pirates. If he gets back to 2019, he’s already in arb-eligible years

Dan Szymborski: And Rutledge likely isn’t good enough to carry the package

Dan Szymborski: Unless we’re talking a LOT of other dudes and the Pirates go for quantity

IlsNePasserontPas: Last night’s Dodgers Padres game was the baseball equivalent of Trench Warfare

Dan Szymborski: Giants gotta love it!

IlsNePasserontPas: The 18 inning WS Game = Battle of Verdun

That game last night = Battle of the Somme

Guest: What do you think ZiPS will make of Robbie Ray’s transformation this year?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is bullish

Nate: Are there any logical reasons as to why Jeff McNeil sucks now? Lolmets is such a real thing

Dan Szymborski: I think Jay is doing something on McNeil!

Dan Szymborski: He is

Terry: How worried should I be about Ke’Bryan Hayes offensive output or could his struggles since coming back be attributed to not being fully recovered from a wrist injury?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be terribly worried

Dan Szymborski: I like Hayes a lot, but his offensive expectations were getting awfully inflated

Guest: Would Gavin Weir be a top 5 rotation option for the Orioles in 2022?

Dan Szymborski: Gavin McCloud would be a top 5 rotation option for the Orioles in 2022.

Dan Szymborski: wow, it’s MacLeod?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve literally thought it was McCloud all these years

Anthony: What kind of profile do you expect from Jared Walsh going forward? Is this who he is? 30 homers/.325 obp?

Dan Szymborski: At his age and *after* another step forward, I think he is what he is

Dan Szymborski: Which is fine, and much better than Pujols

Homer McLongball: Dan, if you want to see something fun and odd, look at Heaney’s slugging % against on 0-2 counts…

Dan Szymborski: Geez, four homers on 0-2 counts this year

A Tribe Called Kipnis: What was your best and worst radio appearance?

Dan Szymborski: My worst is my first one

Dan Szymborski: This was in the early 2000s

Dan Szymborski: First time on radio as a guest and they were running behind so I started eating peanuts

Dan Szymborski: and as they introduced me, I was choking slightly on a peanut

Dan Szymborski: Can’t say best

A Tribe Called Kipnis: What’s the best comment your mom has made while watching a game with you?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve only been to a few games with mom in my life. She’s not into baseball

Dan Szymborski: I forget who it wsa, but she once commented “wow, that guy’s hair is worse than yours”

Benintendi: What happened to me? Chances I get non-tendered?

Dan Szymborski: 85% non-tender

Mike: What’s a stat that you find fairly useless? BA aside

Dan Szymborski: I hate saves more than just about anything

IlsNePasserontPas: In my day I loved playing High Heat 2002 as a kid especially b/c their stats engine was really really good for that era

Matt: Thoughts on Wander’s 29 game on base streak? Fangraphs called his early struggles with high octane fastballs, but he has adjusted amazingly and gotten that elite contact ability back on track. Last I checked, on pace for 3 WAR with missing so much of the season early on in the minors.

Dan Szymborski: He’s pretty awesome!

Dan Szymborski: Which is about the most obvious thing

Dayton Moore Talking Head: The Royals think they are contenders next year.  (I know,  I know, but please accept the premise.)  Aside from acquiring good players, what should be their first priority?

Dan Szymborski: What am I allowed to do here?

Dan Szymborski: Am I the ROyals dictator?

Dan Szymborski: If you think you’re a contender, you can’t *not* add a bat

Dan Szymborski: Benintendi is ALMOST second on the team in OPS

Derek: I was at the Orioles game last night and the atmosphere was surprisingly kind of electric? I think most was Ohtani-driven and some was just ironic but it seems like the team has actually retained a decent amount of fan support given how completely terrible they are! Is that a fair reading?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a great park to watch a game

brad penny for your thoughts: Danny “The Digital Dandy” Szymbo from Parts Unknown.  Ever thought of being a wrestler?

Dan Szymborski: At 43, it’s way too late to start

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I could manage!

Dan Szymborski: Because, let’s be honest, the only role for me would be heel manager

Dayton Moore Talking Head: When you re-watch “Homer at the Bat,” which real life player makes you go “hmm, why did they go with this guy”?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, they picked a really good lineup

Dan Szymborski: Scioscia/Sax weren’t as big names, but both were really good at the time it was filmed

Dan Szymborski: errr animated

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I know it’s not filmed before a live studio audience

Dan Szymborski: Though I think Mr. Burns probably needed to do better background check given that Steve Sax committed so many murders in New York.

Guest: Pirates *could* go for quantity a la Taillon

Dan Szymborski: Reynolds has a lot more trade value now than Taillon at the time

Dan Szymborski: Remember, Taillon had basically missed two years at that point

Dan Szymborski: So that quantity better be really QUANTITATIOUS

robertobeers: Ha-Seong Kim underperforming his projections pretty heavily. Is he still a 4 win peak player in your eyes?

Dan Szymborski: He still could be!

Dan Szymborski: But the error bars were huge.

Dan Szymborski: I hope to have the percentiles as part of the standard package upcoming season

Jon G: Ian Happ has had a little run lately, albeit with huge K numbers still there. Say he hits his 50th percentile outcome RoS, though. Does he get non-tendered?

Dan Szymborski: I think he gets tendered

KB: Who is your favorite sabermetrician of all-time?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a boring answer, but James was the first stat guy who could write the crap outta things.

B: Who does ZiPS think has the highest ceiling in baseball? I hope we get to see a healthy full season from Buxton at some point, personally.

Dan Szymborski: Off-hand, I think Tatis

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Let me rephrase — Aside from making the obvious joke “acquire good players,” what would be your priority for the Royals?

Dan Szymborski: offense

Dan Szymborski: I think they can still cobble together an adequate-ish rotation

Dan Szymborski: But there’s so little offensive upside in the majors everywhere

Dan Szymborski: Even stuff like TRADE WHIT MERRIFIELD! is no longer effective

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he has that much trae value anymore

Dayton Moore Talking Head: If you had to pick a 1980s-1990s sitcom to remake now as a drama, which one do you pick?

Dan Szymborski: SAVED BY THE BELL

Dan Szymborski: My idea for the Saved by the Bell reboot.

Dan Szymborski: keep Zack Morris as governor of California

Dan Szymborski: but make it a dark look, House of Cards style

Dan Szymborski: But only HALF the show like that

Dan Szymborski: the other half would be a complete tonal shift to zany antics of the other characters

Dan Szymborski: and go back and forth between those halves with ZERO explanation

Dan Szymborski: My idea, while Dustin Diamond was alive, would be to make him Morris’s fixer, with *no* zaniness, no winking at the camera. Just a really deranged, sociopathic individual

Dan Szymborski: So like you’d have an episode where Zack has Screech murder a Senatorial candidate in the way of Zack’s preferred choice in the primaries. Meanwhile, Slater’s holding a hula hoop contest at the Max.

AJ Preller: How many of those 29 games under preseason projections for SD have been accumulated since I took over starting 2015?

Dan Szymborski: 20

A Tribe Called Kipnis: I was listening to a sports station in a random city (Denver?) while traveling for work years ago, and they were aggressively promoting their upcoming segment with you by saying stuff like there were going to be fireworks when they put this “stat head” in his place.  Then you came on and were totally reasonable in explaining something like why OBP is better than batting average and instantly won them over.

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I’m actually good at this kind of stuff! I’ve *never* had an appearance end up being a hostile, unpleasant experience.

Dan Szymborski: And I’ll go on anything.

brad penny for your thoughts: can zips predict “boringness”?  ’cause i think StL would be at the top year after year

Dan Szymborski: Maybe magnitude of WPA shifts in games?

Dan Szymborski: Dont’ think I can predict that, though I’ve never tried

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Do you recast Screech, or just imply that Zack secretly killed him?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a good question.

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d have Screech’s death be that unanswered question behind the scenes.

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Ah, based on the tonal inconsistencies of your Saved by the Bell remake, I see you watch the 1990s CBS show “Picket Fences”

Dan Szymborski: That WAS a fun show!

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: You’ll go on anything? Someone call the 700 club!

Dan Szymborski: I’d be game!

Dan Szymborski: Is that still a thing?

Dayton Moore Talking Head: In season 4, does Zack lose the election, but him and the gang still inexplicably hang around the governor’s mansion?

Dan Szymborski: I like to think that there WOULD BE no election.

Nick: Buehler, India, Tatis, Lynn, Ohtani, Garcia–are these the end-of-season award winners?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s rather up in the air

Dan Szymborski: I’m an NL ROY voter this year

Dan Szymborski: and I’m still unusure who I’d vote if the season ended today

Dan Szymborski: India’s been terrific

Dan Szymborski: but so has Trevor Rogers

Dan Szymborski: And I’d vote for Luis Garcia in the AL right now, I think

Dan Szymborski: unless that’ the garcia you referred to

Dan Szymborski: Wheeler’s a real candidate

Christian Colon for Men: Does Sal Perez get enough votes to hang out on the HOF ballot for multiple years?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think he gets scattered votes but not 5%

Roger: Is Tatis going to end up being another if not for injuries Eric Davis type?

Dan Szymborski: Too early to stay

Dan Szymborski: say

Dan Szymborski: I’m still hopeful that they resolve the shoulder issues

Cito: Predict Robbie Ray’s next contract?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 4/90 right now

brad penny for your thoughts: did you have an equivalent of “The Max” when you were in high school?  and there was a wacky server who also dabbled in magic?

Dan Szymborski: I did not

Dan Szymborski: We mostly just hung out at Border’s

Dan Szymborski: no apostrophe

Dan Szymborski: It came to Towson Commons as the anchor store in I think 1992 or 1993

Dan Szymborski: It was common to go there after school

Dan Szymborski: it was within walking distance of Towson High

Dan Szymborski: I walked home a lot because I owned a Ford Tempo

Dan Szymborski: My car was usually packed with people when it was working

Dan Szymborski: Parking spaces were limited because of construction at the school (they were installing air conditioning), but my grandfather got me permission to park in the teachers lot somehow.

Dan Szymborski: Bob used to ride in the trunk because he was small and flexible.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Growing up my mom had a 4 door white tempo and a 2 door or Coupe green tempo. Both were awful.

Dan Szymborski: I actually had that Tempo through college and beyond. Until *2004*

Dan Szymborski: I drove that for a decade and went though about six alternators

Guest: Padres or Reds for the second NL Wild Card spot?

Dan Szymborski: Still think Padres, but it’s close

Dan Szymborski: The Reds have a creampuff schedule

Dan Szymborski: like 9 games left against the Pirates

Christian Colon for Men: No hanging out in the 7-11 parking lot?

Dan Szymborski: There wasn’t actually a 7-11 really close

Dan Szymborski: If anything, it would be Royal Farms

Fred: Your 500 HR article was the article I needed today — thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for reading!

Dan Szymborski: On that note, thanks for comign everyone! I will see you next time!