Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/5/21

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time has arrived.

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Is this a regular Gallo ebb and flow thing or is he pressing with the new team?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s just a bad run

Moose_Bolton: If you became a chess grandmaster, what do you think the Szymborski Gambit would consist of?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, grandmaster Szym would be better than actual Szym

Dan Szymborski: And I think all the good gambits have probably been discovered?

thelaundry: Do you feel like we have enough information and park/league adjusted stats to account for the Happy Fun Ball being used in the minors right now?

Dan Szymborski: We never have *enough*

Dan Szymborski: But I think we have a pretty good idea about the environment

Sid Bream: Why has nobody approached me about opening a restaurant chain of Crispy Bream Sliders?  The ads write themselves.

Phil Buck: Our cat chose Willy Adames as NL mvp. Is he right?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry, cats lie

shh31: Hi Dan– I was wondering what you think accounts for the difference between the ZiPS post-deadline model putting the Rays with a ~60% to win the AL East and the FanGraphs ensemble having them only with a ~33% chance. Which do you lean towards?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has generally liked the Rays more.

Dan Szymborski: I do too.

Dan Szymborski: I think the ZiPS model is good at sussing out depth

James: Kyle Tucker is hitting .326/.383/.620 since May 9. How close is that to his true talent level?

Dan Szymborski: A bit above, but he’s a really good player

barney gumble: at what point does Belli get benched? or even optioned?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he does, but I see him sitting more due to matchups

barney gumble: aaron judge has one of the largest xwOBA-wOBA differences in the league despite playing in a hitter’s park. any idea why that’s the case?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I follow. xwOBA isn’t a park-adjusted version of wOBA, it’s a statcast-calculated estimate of wOBA from hit balls

Pumpsie Green: Is Randy Dickchuk the correct name if the Blue Jays go with a Randall Grichuk/Corey Dickerson OF platoon?

Dan Szymborski: It is now!~

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – can the neural network tell us about Boba Chet’s rise to the major leagues and his stature as the only Grey Jedi in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, mom was knocking on my door.

Dan Szymborski: I have that running, wait a minute

Dan Szymborski: Mom has a key to my house, but for some reason prefers knocking anyway

Yuniesky Betancourt: What is the best office phrase that really means “I’m dead inside?” I vote for “Livin’ the dream”

Dan Szymborski: teamwork makes the dreamwork

Sodo Mojo: In terms of total WAR is the Toro/Graveman trade going to be the most lopsided of this deadline when we look back in 4 years?

Dan Szymborski: It coudl very well be

Jon: As a long time Hosmer truther, what do you make of San Diego’s failed attempts to trade him?

Dan Szymborski: I expect the money didn’t work out enough

Bebo: What does ZiPS think of the Padres’ chances if Tatis has to be shut down?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll run this!

Dan Szymborski: 70%

Dan Szymborski: down from 76%

Dan Szymborski: (I’m already assuming less time and the Reds aren’t super threatening)

Adam: I had thought the secret to unlocking Good Kenley was plenty of rest, but he had it last night and still got touched.  Is it time to just hand over the job to Treinen?

Dan Szymborski: I would

Guest: Szymborski gambit would be knocking over a pitcher of water and bolting

Dan Szymborski: I’d be classier

Dan Szymborski: I’d throw salt in my opponent’s eyes and steal their king

Guest: Gallo’s power was in his beard. He is shorn like Samson.

Adam: Are we in for the earliest date that the last team clinches a playoff spot in recent memory?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually know the earliers

Dan Szymborski: st

Dan Szymborski: Oh, here’s Boba Chette’s story

Dan Szymborski: The highlighted part is the kicking off point

Dan Szymborski:

pain: Hey Dan – how likely do you think it is that the Rangers manage to out-suck the Diamondbacks the rest of the way and snag the #1 pick next year?

Dan Szymborski: It’s going to be tight

Dan Szymborski: err tough

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes the diamondbacks more than most and still sees them the overwhelming favorite

barney gumble: RE the judge question: I meant that he’s underperforming significantly despite playing in a ballpark that could lead to some overperforming, with the short fences and all

Dan Szymborski: But players can underperform or overperform despite advantages or disadvantages from the park

Dan Szymborski: Coors has a big BABIP effect

Dan Szymborski: but you can still underperform your expected park-neutral BABIP as a hitter

Adam: Do you think the Cardinals traded for Lester just to further irritate Cubs fans?  I am here for transactions made just for spite.

Dan Szymborski: If he keeps the bullpen from throwing arms off, they’ll live with it

Girth Montgomery: You’re given a super-mo camera, a time machine that works just okay, and all the equipment necessary to capture 2 moments in baseball history in super-hi-def slomo. You obviously go film Randy Johnson blowing up the most famous bird in baseball history, but what’s your second moment to capture (if not Mike Fetters’ cheeks jiggling into place during one of his intimidation glares)?

Dan Szymborski: I wanna see Bartolo’s eyes the instant he realizes it’s a dinger

Adam: Nobody mentions Elieser Hernandez when talking up the Marlins’ young starters.  Is it just because he’s a bit older than the rest, or is his ceiling lower?  His results have been decent the last couple years.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s just because paragraphs have to end sometime!

BrooklynResident: Hi, Dan. Can you give my friend Greg, a Nats fan, an optimistic timeline for better days? It’s his birthday, so be nice and lie if necessary

Dan Szymborski: It’s ….gonna be awhile

Dan Szymborski: They’re just restocking their farm system

Dan Szymborski: But there’s no indication that they’re trading juan Soto or anything this offseason

Zhou Enlai: Here’s my take on the Red Sox at the deadline: Chaim Bloom realized that 2021 is good luck but outside the plan, so why go nuts when this year’s overperformance is gravy. Build towards the future. Accurate?

Dan Szymborski: That’s about right i think

Adam: Other than the various Rockies, who else should have been traded that wasn’t?

Dan Szymborski: Raisel Iglesias for one

Adam: Who are your five favorite minor Seinfeld characters?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Dan Szymborski: Jack Klompus

Dan Szymborski: Kenny Bania

Dan Szymborski: George Steinbrenner

Dan Szymborski: J. Peterman

Dan Szymborski: Uncle Leo

Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming that the parents and Puddy don’t count

Confused uncle: My nephew named his newborn son after Lando Calrissian. That is all.

Dan Szymborski: If his family’s last name is Lakes, I hope the kid sues for emancipation

Your Name: j walter weatherman!

Dan Szymborski: wrong show!@

mick donfort: On the team page the Rockies have the worst offense yet the best baserunning and defense per war by a long shot.  could it be the park factors need adjusting?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so

Dan Szymborski: before 2020, the BSR numbers are quite mild

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more likely that the Rockies are just really bad at evaluating offensive talent.

Dan Szymborski: Remember, they *wanted* Desmond at first base

Dan Szymborski: Imagine you buy this house and it has this in it

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: There’s a difference between buying the house despite this room

Dan Szymborski: and CONSCIOUSLY MAKING THIS ROOM

Dan Szymborski: Rockies fans love going OMG TEH COORS HANGOVER

Dan Szymborski: but the evidence strongly suggest we’re talking a couple of point of wRC+

Dev Patel’s Beard: Do you see the Yankees trades pushing them into the postseason?

Dan Szymborski: It’s still uphill, but the moves gave them their best chance

onomatopoeia: Bob Sacamano!

Your Name: shit i meant J peterman

jb: the bubble Boy, Jimmy, soup-nazi

Your Name: I meant J Peterson and goofed. Pulling myself from the chat, we’ll see if I’m in the lineup tomorrow.

Alby: My grandson’s name is Luke Skywalker Brown.

Dan Szymborski: My nephew is JJ Reddick. His initials turned out JJ (so he’s not called that), but neither of his parents have any knowledge of basketball.

Dan Szymborski: When we were in the waiting room, my mom came out and told me what the name was.

Dan Szymborski: I instantly shouted JJ Reddick! and started laughing about that

Dan Szymborski: And mom was like “don’t you dare tell your sister!”

Dan Szymborski: (I naturally told her like a few days later)

The Opener: Do you think the players association would ever demand that the Yankees allow their players to grow beards like the rest of the league?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Alby: I’ve had real Texas-recipe chili — just meat, peppers and spices — but with venison instead of beef. It was hard to tell the difference. Would you be up to try such a thing?

Dan Szymborski: Sure.

Dan Szymborski: I like venison

Ichiro Peavy: I decided to settle for McDoubles from the nearby McDonald’s instead of getting my Double Butterburger from Culver’s just to make the chat — did I receive fair value?

Dan Szymborski: You should not give up anything to come to my chat.

Bellinger: Has anyone ever done a piece on hitters the year after labrum/shoulder surgery? With Bellinger struggling mightily after he had it and Tatis probably heading toward that avenue this offseason, I’m curious to see if there is a history of players underperforming after having it.

Dan Szymborski: Not offhand.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done work in shoulder injuries for ZiPS purposes

BringBackDeSpanielHair: What the heck is going on with Giolito? He seems incredibly prone to implosions this season.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t deeply studied the issue, but just from off the cuff, I’d look at his changeup in those bad starts

Dan Szymborski: it certainly feels like that in his bad games, teams are really timing the change well

Dan Szymborski: but that’s from observation

Dan Szymborski: and data is superior

Tigers Fan: What do you think of the Tigers rebuild so far?

Dan Szymborski: meh-plus?

Dan Szymborski: I like their pitching, but I’m still concerned about long term offense

Dev Patel’s Beard: Worse move: trading Jay Buehner or signing Hideki Irabu?

Dan Szymborski: Buhner. Irabu’s only money

Todd Bonzalez: Should the Reds have traded for Iglesias?

Dan Szymborski: It’s weird, but the Reds probably should have!

Appa Yip Yip: If you ask them to replace the ketchup and mustard on your McDouble with Mac sauce it’s like getting teeny little big macs for half the price.

Food Talk: Your stance on chili is well documented, but what does a proper Dan Szymborski hot dog look like?

Dan Szymborski: Either onions + mustard

Dan Szymborski: or kraut

Dan Szymborski: or chicago style

@RationalMLBFan: If a simulation universe were possible, then it’s likely that we are living in a simulation universe. But was is the possibility that we are living in a Szymulation universe in which ZIPS has mapped out our potential percentile performances/states (not unlike quantum theory) and you are its puppet master? What does that universe look like?

Dan Szymborski: I’m familiar with that though exercise and agree with it!

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure a universe determined by me would be an odd one

Dan Szymborski: but considering how much time it took me to project baseball players, I have nowhere near the brainpower or longevity to project existence.

Jacques Pederson: Will the Rays ever have a hall of famer? Seems like anyone who is good enough won’t get through their arb years without getting traded

Dan Szymborski: BOSS!

Dan Szymborski: err

Dan Szymborski: BOGGS

Dan Szymborski: wtf szym?

Dink: AEW or WWE?

Dan Szymborski: I enjoy AEW’s product a bit better now

Raphie C: ZiPS was a big fan of Ha-Seong Kim prior to this year. While he got off to a slow start, his splits since June 1 are actually quite acceptable for such a skilled defender. How bullish/bearish might ZiPS be on HSK going forward? Would it be more fruitful for the Padres to play HSK if it bumps Hosmer out of the lineup and Cronenworth to 1B?

Dan Szymborski: At this point in the season, tinkering with playing time won’t really have big changes

Dan Szymborski: And ZiPS is obviously less excited about Kim than it was six months ago

Dan Szymborski: Remember, the error bars were huge!

Yuniesky Betancourt: With fewer bunts, fewer stolen base attempts, and more putouts from strikeouts, are fielding percentages at catcher at an all-time high?

Dan Szymborski: Yup, at .994

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s important to note that’s the long-term trend at all positions!

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s ahead of 2018

Dan Szymborski: 1901: .961!

Dan Szymborski: 1901 SS FPCT: .912

Dan Szymborski: Imagine one of every 11 shortstop plays being an error!

Appa Yip Yip: Why has no player with glorious facial hair ever just said “no” to the Yankees ridiculous grooming rules?

Dan Szymborski: They do allow mustaches!

Dan Szymborski: So Jay Jaffe can play for the Yanks

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if it was true or not, but there was a rumor that Brian Wilson didn’t make a comeback attempt with the Yankees because of it

Guest: Hi Mr. Analytics

Dan Szymborski: Am I Mr. Analytics?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: It’s not directly comparable, but I still like the clip

Your Name: Cats? Lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is fuming in a closet because I woudln’t give her additional wet food

Dan Szymborski: (She was too lazy to come to dinner yesterday, so she’s had to just eat the dry stuff)

Dan Szymborski: Constantine’s hanging out with my mom, who is doing something in my kitchen. I liked being across the street better *before* she retired.

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio was sleeping in the living room.

Dan Szymborski: And Justinian’s next to me sleeping.

Alby: Do GMs’ personalities match their professional traits? For example, is Dayton Moore an eternal  optimist? Is AJ Preller a wild man? Is Jerry DiPoto mercurial?

Dan Szymborski: It varies

Dan Szymborski: I also don’t get to know a lot of front office people personally outside of a baseball context.

Dan Szymborski: Even people who I’m friendly with before they go into baseball like Kevin Goldstein or Dave Cameron, I don’t seek them out especially when they’re with teams

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s appropriate for me to avoid being over-chummy with people when they’re working for a team, no matter who the ey are

Dan Szymborski: INappropriate

Appa Yip Yip: If you were to be fitted with an old timey baseball moniker, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski: Losing Pitcher

Cynthia: I’ve seen a lot of people who are familiar with stat but seem to lack an understanding of probability. For example, people will look at a player having a breakout year and point out their expected stats are equally good to say that’s a fair expectation going forward. Do you think regression toward career norms is under-utilized?

Dan Szymborski: Among people not looking at projection systems, absolutely!

Dan Szymborski: What it comes down to is that a player having a breakout year is more likely exceeding their abilities than falling short.

Dan Szymborski: That’s one of the awkward things about projections is that you never really know the right answer.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, you know that Shlubba Bubba ended up hitting .330

Dan Szymborski: But that doesn’t tell you if he “actually” a .330 hitter in some universal sense.

Dan Szymborski: But it’s more likely he’s a lucky .310 hitter than an unlucky .350 hitter

Dan Szymborski: I always hated describing regression toward the mean writing for ESPN. I think I called it Madden curse more than regression

Jed Hoyer: Fans are going to expect me to put some of Tommy’s cash on the line this winter and sign some bigger name free agents, but the better more principled approach would be to buy every undervalued player, reclamation project, etc. on 1-2 year deals and do the deadline flip at least one more time, right?  Maybe even shop Hendricks and Contreras this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I actually have a Cubs piece coming on soon!

Rich: Be nice.  Maybe your mother is cooking you something delicious in your kitchen!

Dan Szymborski: It’s more likely she’s eating something delicious *from* my ktichen

Monsignor Met: “Gah! Our rivals acquired a 37-year-old with a 5.58 FIP! I’m irritated!” -Cubs fans everywhere

Dan Szymborski: Oh, there was a lunch question

Dan Szymborski: Nothing, actually.

Dan Szymborski: My cold last week has turned into bronchitis, so I’m eating oddly

Dan Szymborski: i had pistachio gelato for dinner last night

Dan Szymborski: and right now, I’m eating tapioca pudding and a chunk of camembert

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s likely what mom’s raiding my fridge for. I have rice pudding

Dan Szymborski: She has a nasty cold too. We caught it from my nephew last week.

Dan Szymborski: (Not COVID, mom had a test already)

Ben Cherington: David Puddy counts. He was only in like 10 episodes in seasons 6 and 9. Watching the show in syndication plays tricks on you. Plus those season 6 episodes are classics.

Dan Szymborski: He feels more important

Don Jenver: You ever see The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh where as it turns out, all of Dr. J’s teammates are astrologically incompatible, so the GM trades for players whose signs are more aligned with their star’s & voila they win it all? Do you think any MLB GMs have examined the feasability of this strategy?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard of the movie, but I haven’t actually seen it

Dan Szymborski: It seems like something the Royals would do

Boots MacFarland: So on baseball reference, they have regular WAR, oWAR, and dWAR. It has always confounded me that the oWAR and dWAR totals don’t add up to the total WAR. Do you know why this is the case? Like Derek Jeter has 71.3 bWAR but 96.3 oWAR wtf

Dan Szymborski: Becuase you’ll double-count the positional value!

Fart Master: What games are you playing?

Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone right now since expansion

Dan Szymborski: Just finished a runthrough of the first nine Legend of Heroes games

Dan Szymborski: Up to Hajimari no kiseki

Dan Szymborski: But while I’m going to play that before English release, I at least want the Japanese PC version over PS4

Moog Powell: We just say Analytics

Tigers Fan: Are Bellinger and Gleyber Torres from this point on below average players?  What is the probability they will perform better moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not THAT pessimistic

Dan Szymborski: I think Bellinger will be fine.

Dan Szymborski: I’m more worried about Torres

Who’s Fabio?: the Boba Chet story was amazing – maybe now the nickname will take hold in actual reality – fingers crossed!

Dan Szymborski:

Your Name: what comes out first, gta6 or es6?

Dan Szymborski: Elder Scrolls VI

Dan Szymborski: GTA Online still drives a lot of revenue

Dan Szymborski: So Rockstar’s not pressured to be fast at all

Adam: What inning is it acceptable to relocate to better seats?

Dan Szymborski: I say after 3.

El Zilcho: The neural network outputs make me laugh like a crazy person and should be a regular feature at the site. If Dave won’t allow it, then I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Dan Szymborski: I would hate for a neural network to become TOO competent.

Dan Szymborski: It becomes less funny if it does!

Dan Szymborski: I gave the neural network a list of existing mascots

Dan Szymborski: and had it generate new mascots for all 30 MLB teams.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I then asked the neural network the origin story for five of them.

Dan Szymborski: https://postimg.cc/gallery/LR1SDyr

Appa Yip Yip: Hanging out by the railing on the concourse is also an excellent choice for the viewing of baseball

Your Name: Follow up- Where would you want the next ES to take place?

Dan Szymborski: I’d love to go to Hammerfell

Morbo: If someone had the power to make you dictator for life over any mlb franchise, you can construct the roster anyway you want, make the team move cities, really anything other than leave the MLB what franchise would you choose to rule over with your iron fist?

Dan Szymborski: Rockies

Dan Szymborski: I love Denver, and trying to rebuild that team with unlimited authority is just so fascinating a challenge.

Tigers Fan: Should MLB change the pitcher substitution rule for Ohtani so he can DH after he is done pitching like in the all star game?

Beanball: I feel like you’ve said you’re a legends of heroes fan. I started the series with trails of cold steel, and have played the second. Really enjoyed both. Do I need to go back and play the other trails games before moving on to cold steel 3 & 4?

Dan Szymborski: Beanball, it’s not *necessary* but it makes the experience richer

Dan Szymborski: It’s still perfectly playable, but there are a lot of Trails in the Sky characters in final two games

Dan Szymborski: and Crossbell becomes a very big deal and the center of the story in a lot of ways

Dan Szymborski: There are translations available of the Crossbell games

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to IM you my email address. I can help you get those (with the EVO soundtracks) but best off chat

Appa Yip Yip: I hear Ian Desmond has some upside at 1B

Dan Szymborski: BRIDICH BURNER

Adam: Are you in favor of MLB games at gimmick locations i.e. Field of Dreams and Williamsport?  Where else would you like to see them go?

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see more games in other countries

Dan Szymborski: There are a LOT of frigging baseball games

Steve O: If DJ LeGroundOutToTheSecondBaseman is a 2.5ish win player, is the contract underwater? Still 5/75 left.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t there yet

Morbo: At Busch stadium there is a bar in center field directly behind where the center field camera used to be before the angle was changed and ruined. One of my favourite cheap spots to watch a game (you can sit there with any ticket that gets you in the stadium)

Guest: Do we penalize 1B prospects too much?  the wRC+ for 1B is only 106 this year (in line with prior years).  Lots of teams have poor first baseman yet some say there is no such thing as a 1b prospect.

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible

Dan Szymborski: But one of the things about 1B prospects is that they HAVE to hit in most cases

Baseball fan: The Astros drafted a player named Kobe (Kato) in the 13th followed by a player named Bryant (Salgado) in the 14th. What are the odds that was a completely random happenstance?

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing, there are TRILLIONS of weird coincidences like that

Dan Szymborski: So you’re obviously going to see the ones that happen

Dan Szymborski: not the ones that don’t

Dan Szymborski: And with unlimited chances at these trillions of coincidences, it’s likely that you’ll see some

Dan Szymborski: Like the odds of any two hall of famers at the same position being born the same day are pretty long

Dan Szymborski: any two specific ones

Dan Szymborski: But you can observe Thomas/Bagwell

Dan Szymborski: you’re not really observing all the great players not born the other day as another similar great player

brad penny for your thoughts: do you have any 2nd thoughts about playing activision/blizzard products with the recent lawsuit news?  im not huge blizzard person but I had interest in the D2 remake….now not so sure.

Dan Szymborski: My general philosophy is for the legal issues to play out between the parties.

Dan Szymborski: Victims should get justice.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t have any issues with someone who feels any differently.

Dan Szymborski: I only care about boycotts in very specific situations: boycotts targeted to remedy a *specific* situation and are likely to get those results.

Your Name: Rich Hill has played for 11 teams so far. Does he hit 15?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: When I say, “I don’t have any issues with someone who feels any differently” I don’t mean for the victims should get justice part

Dan Szymborski: obviously I DO have issues with those who don’t agree with that!

FancyGraphs: Why do teams never do front loaded contracts for the more productive years as opposed to backloaded?

Dan Szymborski: money costs less later

Dan Szymborski: and luxury tax looks at whole contract

Dan Szymborski: and they do sometimes

Dan Szymborski: but mainly to shape their payrolls

Dan Szymborski: Desmond’s deal was really oddly configured for similar reasons

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to head off for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

HappyFunBall: Any multi-year contract that pays out the same $$ each year _is_ front-loaded

Dan Szymborski: good poitn