Dan Szymborski Fangraphs Chat – 9/10/18

Dan Szymborski: It’s party time!*

Dan Szymborski: * Does not indicate actual party

Matt: Wow, Dan. Way to give us a good…5 minutes of queue time.

Dan Szymborski: I was on the piano and got distracted for time!

Dan Szymborski: Then I was like HOLY CRAP IT’S GOTTA BE NEAR NOON

Tony: What do you think about the MLB’s decision to move Cubs/Nationals to Thursday in DC?  Cubs will have scheduled game 30 days in a row and there might be a hurricane affecting the region.  Why not play the game on Oct 1?

Dan Szymborski: If I’m not mistaken, the current track gives them room to play the game.

Dan Szymborski: MLB’s position, I believe, is to not use the fallback days until you know you *have to*

Gub Gub: That was the most Bearsiest Bears game possible

Dan Szymborski: DeShone Kizer.

BenM: Where do you put the Cards chances of reaching the Wild Card game?

Dan Szymborski: About a coin flip. As the Nats have definitely strayed out of contention mathematically, you don’t see the same disagreement on playoff probs between ZiPS and FG

Pio: In the second half, Renfroe has a 3 BB% and a .300 IsoP. Which skillset (or lack thereof) fo you see winning out there?

Dan Szymborski: The power.

agaveotter: Thoughts on the current Hearthstone meta?  You playing most wild, standard or arena these days?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t played a ton this expansion, simply because I got distracted by the puzzles and a World of WarCraft expansion came out.

Dan Szymborski: Then I realized I was an expansion behind Guild Wars 2 and started playing that a lot

Jim Leyland Palmer: As much as we all enjoy your mockery of the Royals & Orioles rebuilding efforts, who are some teams that are in the early stages of rebuilding that you do think are on the right track?

Dan Szymborski: O’s if they keep it up

Dan Szymborski: White Sox

Dan Szymborski: Probably the Tigers, though not perfectly

Jcq: Any chance Atlanta leverages their stable of pitching prospects to replenish their lower minor leagues?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so – they’re in competition now, they need to think of major leaguers first

Dan Szymborski: And their rotation isn’t so set that they don’t need the pitching prospects

King Slender: Wait…the guy who threw 105 mph is getting elbow surgery?  Inconceivable!

Joe West’s Inner Rage: Ok Szymburger..you and all your nerd friends ‘ARE OUTTA HERE”. Why? Because I can. Because I am Joe West…..Blue Cowboy and I am much more important in my own mind than I really am in the real world.         My CD is available at all truckstops, 5 and Dime stores and various flea markets in Kentucky and Tennessee.

stever20: So for Sale, how many innings do you think he needs to get to for the Cy Young?  I think it’s at least 162.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, if he’s not on leaderboards that’s probably a big deal.

Dan Szymborski: If he’s 50 innings behind the Astros pair, I think one of them wins

Airport Banana: Which team’s August deals did you like the most?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers/Diamondbacks

Kiermaier’s Labyrinthitis: How did you piss off Joe West?  I am surprised he knows how to use a computer let alone type on a keyboard since he is blind as a bat.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what happened?

Dbo: Dan, I noticed that your chat streak ended last week. Is 8 the longest number of consecutive chats you’ve ever had?

Dan Szymborski: Holiday!

Matt: Next time, you should try sitting on the bench, not the piano. Might make it easier to play said piano.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a good tip.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Right around the August trade deadline, I noticed that the Brewers went from a fairly mediocre sub .500 ROS projection to well above (.525 or so), and nearly the opposite happened to St. Louis. What gives – did the 8/31 trade deadline really move the needle that much for MIL? Also, why the fall for STL? Tough upcoming schedule?

Dan Szymborski: Can’t actually say, I believe that’s a question to bug Sean Dolinar about

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What’s your NL playoff field?

Dan Szymborski: I agree with FG probs at the moment – Atlanta, St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, Los Angeles

Sad Mr. Met: fabgraphs needs an essay entitled “Jeff Mcneil is Wade Boggs”

Jedidiah: Austin Barnes was awesome. Now he’s terrible. Give me hope that this is some sort of aberration.

Dan Szymborski: 200 PA seasons are going to be erratic season-to-season

Airport Banana: Could Cubs fans stop complaining about their schedule? I get that it’s hard on the players and their families, but every team has had similar stretches like this, most without the benefits of expanded rosters.

Kevin: Will there ever be a way to account for base coaches in a player’s BsR? What if the third base coach is just bad and constantly sends guys when he shouldn’t? Maybe it evens out over time, but it doesn’t seem fair to the player, since they generally don’t even decide whether or not they should advance.

Dan Szymborski: It would be an interesting experiment.

Dbo: Since you’re Ingredient Purist/Structural neutral sandwich guy, what is the most definitive sandwich that you’ve ever eaten in this category? Have you eaten a Chip Butty?

Dan Szymborski: whoa whoa whoa

Dan Szymborski: I’m structural purist, ingredient rebel.

Josiah: Why is Brad Boxberger still allowed near the ninth inning for the Dbacks? The fact that Lovullo is saying things like this in 2018 is baffling to me: “I’m going to do the same exact thing that I’ve done every single day,” Lovullo said. “I’m going to follow the same process that I follow. I might mix the cards a little bit here and there, but I feel like in this time I need to be as consistent as possible. I can’t pull things off the wall and throw them around. It’s going to confuse the guys.

Dan Szymborski: The really weird thing is that super-negative ZiPS projection for Boxberger that even I had trouble extracting a reason from turned out to be good so far.

Bork: After Grichuk’s head meeting stool incident last night, should the MLB change all security staff’s stools into bean bags?

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Why doesn’t Bumgarner get more press about being kind of a jerk? I get that Ryan Braun isn’t the most likeable guy in MLB, but man, that sequence of events seemed like nothing more than stupid, hotheaded bluster for MadBum, and came back to bite him in the ass, hard.

James: Alex Bregman has hit .313/.410/.628 since early May. Could he sustain that pace over a whole season?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a pretty crazy pace – I expect his real level of play is a bit lower than that, but he’s emerging as a real superstar

squeeze bunt: What do the Padres have to do to make the playoffs next year, or at least be in the race?

Dan Szymborski: Have better pitching.

Dan Szymborski: Fewer stupid things.

Alooph: Got any emojis for Aaron Rodgers?

zurzles: What do you make of Giolito? Really looked like he turned a corner before getting whipped by DET, though it was his third start against them in a few weeks.

Dan Szymborski: His velocity *is* up a tick.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think his fastball plays at all at 91/92, it becomes batting practice

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Thoughts on the Yankees/Red Sox objections to the Donaldson trade? Seems like if they were upset he went to a fellow contender, the answer is that one of them should have upped their ante, right?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little tricky given the rules about injured players and waivers.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t *know* the true state of Donaldson’s health at the time he was placed on waivers.

Vslyke: Cedric Mullins’ defensive ratings have been… less than ideal. Do you think he can stick in CF?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry yet about very small sample defensvive numbers, whether good or bad

BenM: Without knowing what happens in the offseason, predict how the NL East standings shake out in 2019

Dan Szymborski: I think fairly similar actually, Phillies closer to Braves based on today’s standings

Dan Szymborski: The Nats lose Harper, but they’re underperforming also

Person: Any theories for this:
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/09/10/new-york-mets-citi-field-jacob-degro…

In short the Mets have consistently had the biggest BABIP differential between home and road.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t get BABIP park factors as that extreme for them.

Big Joey: Do you think Gerrit Cole will get even better? Like the next Scherzer?

Dan Szymborski: He’s damn good right now!

Dan Szymborski: The 40% K bump is nice.

Dan Szymborski: Scherzer had bumps too

Dan Szymborski: But expect a guy to BE Scherzer is hard

Dbo: How essential is it for the Cubs to take the upcoming series with the Brewers?

Dan Szymborski: Not essential, but it’s an important series for both teams – the playoff % variance is high since these are the only wins that ensure losses for the other.

Bo: It’s looking more and more likely that the Braves take the NL East… How should they line up their NLDS rotation? (knocks on wood)

Dan Szymborski: Folty/Gauze/Nuke?

Dan Szymborski: fourth is hard

Dan Szymborski: I’m not comfortable with Teheran, I’ve seen too much of Anibal in the last few years before this season. I’d probably be giving Fried longer stints because I can see some teams better matchups

Big Joey: Is this just a down year for Gary Sanchez or is something wrong?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried yet.

Dan Szymborski: He hits like this in 2019 without groin problems, then I’m worried

Kiermaier’s Labyrinthitis: How did Joe West eject you from your own chat?

Big Joey: At what age should i give up on my dreams and just get a normal job and start building a career?

Dan Szymborski: 33

Gub Gub: You eat lunch on your piano?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t typically eat this early.

Dan Szymborski: I generally sleep until 9-10 or so as I’m up really late.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a breakfast person, so I generally eat a meal around 2-3 and then dinner at around 8.

tb.25: Hi Brett Hundley

Mortimer Smith: Have the Mets played themselves off the selling block with their post All-star surge? They’ll never have more leverage with deGrom.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Mets even know where they’re going.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say until they have some kind of certainty of organizational structure

Al: What’s going on with Correa?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been awful since coming off the DL

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t bet his back is 100%.

Archimedes: Why’d you say not perfectly for the Tigers rebuild? Is that due to injuries to Perez? Or that they have Miggy on the books for the next *checks notes* oh no….

Dan Szymborski: The seeming lack of interest in trading Castellanos/Iglesias (who is a FA). Still giving at-bats to Martinez. Treating Fulmer in trades like he’s an ace, which he is not

Mortimer Smith: Who’s your favorite player to watch in the NFL?

Dan Szymborski: Ever is still Barry Sanders

Dan Szymborski: Right now, Odell?

Lawsonomics: Does MLB need to do more about pitchers intentionally throwing at guys? I’d favor just skipping the warnings and issuing  ejections for purpose pitches (with an automatic 15 game suspension). I know his would be a tough adjustment and put a lot of the burden on umps’ judgement, but somebody’s going to get killed.

Dan Szymborski: They probably should, but MLB and the players have never been all that motivated to be serious about this.

Dan Szymborski: It’s absurd that Carlos Quentin gets 8 games for breaking Greinke’s collarbone while Chris Davis gets 25 for what was essentially a paperwork snafu

Blotto: Have you read Churchill’s account of WWI, specifically, the Gallipoli Campaign?   I just started, and I don’t need to hear a bunch of excuses.

Dan Szymborski: I have not read.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not particularly well-read on WWI. My belief is that Gallipoli resulted from failures on pretty much all levels, but I can’t talk like an expert on it.

Bork: So, Rowdy Tellez.

Dbo: The lunch period should be set at 11 am – 3pm, anything before is breakfast and anything after is dinner

King Slender: Play me an upbeat jazzy number while I walk into the living room

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really do those

LFC Mike: Biggest weakness for Red Sox as they enter post season? I know that is getting picky for a team on such a tear.

Dan Szymborski: Not overly enthralled with their C/1B

Gopherballs: The Royals only need one more win, but will the O’s finish above replacement level?

Dan Szymborski: O’s need to go 7-8, so now

Dan Szymborski: no

Person: I get .305 and .263 for 2018 (essentially what the article had) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=219,7&strgroup=s…

King Slender: Canelo or GGG, who you got?

Dan Szymborski: You’re really getting out of my expert zone!

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Are you a free will guy or a fatalist?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I philosophically stick to one of those poles. I haven’t thought mucha bout it

All Cats Are Beautiful : Any thoughts on Cleveland not using Chief Yahoo in Canada anymore?

Dan Szymborski: Wahoo is on the way out and even if the human rights Canadian stuff didn’t pan out against it, it’s a bit more tense a situation

Dan Szymborski: Just personally speaking, I’m glad to see Cleveland start to move Chief Wahoo on the way out.

Dan Szymborski: Though I am 100% philosophically against any type of government intervention or trademark games that would have furthered that goal.

Matt: O’s “on the right track”? Is this just based off the fact that they’ve openly admitted maybe they were doing things the wrong way? Or is this drastic change due to the acquisitions within the last month (or two)?

Dan Szymborski: They did a good job at the deadline and they seem interested in international players suddenly and seem like they’re on board with the leader.

Morbo: Dan, I have sad news. You are no longer the single chat CHAR leader. Meg has supplanted you, without the use of emojis even. Based almost entirely on her attempt to incite a food riot – and, not the kind you would see in a poorly run member of OPEC like Venezuela, but the kind of food riot that has only been seen in the closing scenes of Blazing Saddles. Meg has a single chat CHAR of 18.6785! (It may seem preposterous that such a score could be achieved in one chat but trust me the math checks out)

Dan Szymborski: I’m still not sure how this is being calculated.

Mac: Would you trade an MLB team your current algorithm of Zips (without any future iterations) for back door access to all present and future private Statcast data for the rest of your life?

Dan Szymborski: Who says I don’t have my methods already!

Gub’Mint Man: Trevor Bauer may not be back in time to make starts in the regular season. Do you see Tito making Trevor a part of the Indians Bully, lengthening & strengthening an area that has been problematic over the course of the season?

Dan Szymborski: Cleveland made additions to the pen and the rest ought to be pitching better, so if he can, I do want Bauer in the rotation.

NYY Pitching ?: Any idea what’s wrong with Luis Severino? What do you expect from him next year? At the ASG he looked like the best pitcher in MLB, but his track record is also pretty short.

Dan Szymborski: It seems like something has gone bad for every AL Cy Young contender since the end of June

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Do both the A’s and Yankees go with a bullpen game for the wild card?

Dan Szymborski: It wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

Dan Szymborski: Though it’ll be gutsy

v2micca: What happens when medical science is able to create a synthetic ligament that is 10 times stronger than the UCL a pitcher is born with?

Dan Szymborski: We will finally free our athletes from the Sauron-like dark overlordship of James Andrews and Neal ElAttrache.

Matt: Why do I feel like – when all is said and done this season – that the Yankees playoff exit will be pretty unquestionably linked to 2-3 managerial blunders on Boone’s part?

Dan Szymborski: I’d more believe that it’s linked to thing that Boone does that is blown out of all proportion

Jkim: How does the Dodgers have lower Playoff odds than the Cubs/Brewers/Braves yet have the highest WS % in theNL by far? Does ZiPS/Fangraphs think they’re that good for the playoffs? Or is it just the constant underperforming of their peripherals that brought this?

Dan Szymborski: Even if you think the Dodgers are the best team in baseball, their playoff % math situation is undisputably not the best in taseball

Lou: The Giants really can’t think they can “retool” this offseason to compete in 2019 can they?

Dan Szymborski: They might be able to, but it’ll be expensive

Derek in Little Rock: Do you ever use ZiPS or the win expectancy of the FanGraphs daily scoreboard to gauge value on individual game wagers?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do individual games.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: All of the non-playoff teams’ GM positions become available.  Which one do you recommend the most?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies

Derek: In your White Sox Elegy, you mention Miguel Cabrera as an Eloy Jimenez comp. What’s the likelihood Jimenez is actually that kind of player?

Dan Szymborski: Peak Miggy? Fairly low — don’t have offhand — but that there’s a chance is more than you can say for most

Travis: Acuna is gonna end up with 4 war in around 110 games as a 20 year old. That seems pretty good. Think he gets some mvp votes?

Free Fred: Re: Correa, doesn’t it seem concerning that a guy his age already has bad back problems?

Dan Szymborski: MVP votes? probably not

Dan Szymborski: It is.

Jon: Do the tigers have a lack of interest in trading Castellanos or does he just not have any interest right now? Bat first corner outfielders don’t seem to pull in much. And would now really be a good time to trade Fulmer? He’s been pretty bad recently

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think his value’s getting any higher.

Dan Szymborski: And I would’ve traded Fulmer last winter.

Joe Don: You are the only guy I can think of, aside from Peter Gammons, who might know this: My dad claimed to have read that when Ted Williams first joined the Red Sox org at age 17, he wasn’t allowed to swing during batting practice for about the first month. He allegedly had to stand in the box without a bat and call each pitch, ball or strike. Honing his eye. True? And don’t tell me to ask Gammons, I tried that.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t recall having heard that story before.

Dan Szymborski: Not sure a team would do that at that point in history.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What is the most unexpected thing that has happened in baseball over the last 10 years?  Ohtani?  Or Royals winning a world series (and making another one)?

Dan Szymborski: Jose Bautista becoming one of the game’s most feared sluggers for a time?

Lunar verLander: Aside from committing a felony, is there anything an umpire can do that would actually get them fired?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they’d fire an ump that suitcase nuked a sovereign nation

TKDC: Do DeGrom and Scherzer have any realistic shot at the MVP?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. Though Scherzer might have some.

Derek: The only other ML player named Rowdy (according to FanGraphs) was Rowdy Elliott, who played from… 1910-1920. Which seems about right.

All Cats Are Beautiful : In light of this study: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110907124351.htm is there any place in the zips formula for a race variable?  Should this info be factored into awards/hof voting?

Deacon Don: All games tied after 11 innings should end with kickboxing.

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually unfamiliar with that study.

Dan Szymborski: Though if minority players are less likely to get good calls, th at would reflect in the data.

Dan Szymborski: Otherwise, it’s not a subject I hope not to have to deal with in ZiPS.

King Slender: Play me Hot Cross Buns while I search my sofa for change to use in the vending machine.

Sean: What were you playing on the piano?

Dan Szymborski: http://ks4.imslp.info/files/imglnks/usimg/c/c6/IMSLP09065-Kalkbrenner_…

Derek in Little Rock: Does anything matter?

Dan Szymborski: Anyone can see, nothing really matters, nothing really matters to me

Lunar verLander: re. Chief Yahoo – wait, is Jeff Passan not allowed in Canada anymore?

Dan Szymborski: I think Chief Yahoo is like a drunk, 3-foot-7 Texan with a giant 10-gallon hunt who lassos whiskey and cheesburgers and sprays the crowd with petroleum from a hose.

Deacon Don: Hindsight being what it is, if COL had spent $10M on a couple of 110 wRC+ corner bars, would the West be virtually won?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Two average players gives teh Rockies like a five-game boost.

Rusty: Great news, AA is on the hot seat for some indescretion or another and you are on the shortlist of replacements.  What do you do this offseason to turn the Braves into a powerhouse?

Dan Szymborski: Stay the course, really.

Dan Szymborski: Extra depends on what I can convince Liberty to spend.

Matt: The Mets are gonna hire Minaya to be the GM again, aren’t they?

Dan Szymborski: It would be so Mets.

ben: Favorite horror movies?

Dan Szymborski: Not really into the genre.

hscer: testing to see if we’ve reached read-only time

Matt: I noticed in referencing the “gutsy”ness of a Yanks/As WC game in which they both bullpenned. In said comment you used the world “it’ll” (it will) implying that you know, for certain that it will happen. Otherwise, you’d have used “it’ld” (it would). Its time to come clean about your time machine ownership, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: If I had time machine ownership, my projections would be better.

Matt: Since adopting “Piano Man” as their 8th inning sing-along song at the start of the 2017 season, the Mets are a combined 34 games below .500. This is not a coincidence.

Lunar verLander: re: synthetic ligament: we already have them, but James Andrews & Neal ElAttrache are being paid by #bigligament to keep the news quiet

Gub Gub: What is your least favorite bank?

Dan Szymborski: This dentist in rural PA named Bank.

Dan Szymborski: A few years ago, I was at a festival in which a friend was a vendor.

Dan Szymborski: She asked me if I could run to the bank and get bills of varying denominations.

Dan Szymborski: I just typed Bank into my phone without looking at to what it brought me to

Dan Szymborski: and it brought me to a dentist named Bajnk

Dan Szymborski: Bank

Lawdog: Greater love: ZIPS for Acuna or Zim for sammiches?

Dan Szymborski: Acuña for sure

The Old Buccaneer: Jordy Mercer has the highest WAR of all the Pirates’ regular infielders at 1.1

Davy: Hey Dan, just wanted to say I’m really enjoying your articles at FG. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I’m very excited for the new challenge.

hscer: I wrote a paper on Gallipoli in grad school! Basically, a disaster operationally. Failures of logistics, communication, command/control, training. Even their maps of the area were terrible.

Dbo: Dan, when I become president I want you to become head of Health and Human Services but you’re only task is stirring controversy by declaring foods eligible/ineligible for certain categories

Dan Szymborski: Can I work remotely

Dan Szymborski: KETCHUP = POISON

Dan Szymborski: TACOS = VEGETABLE

Dan Szymborski: HOT DOG = SAUSAGE SUBMARINE

Lunar verLander: Why do kickboxing after 11 innings when you can do chessboxing?

James: Hey Dan! In the last few years, someone at fangraphs wrote an article on the success rate of top prospects getting traded and the importance of information assymetry where teams had more information on their own prospects. Do you recall an article like this?

Dan Szymborski: Vaguely!

Dan Szymborski: Maybe someone will chime in.

Tooty McButtface: What if your name was Tooty McButtface?

Dan Szymborski: My mom would go into the worst nursing home I can find around 2030.

Moltar: Okay, so I just read that thing about BABIP in Citi Field, and I was at the game yesterday and had the same thought I always do – why the heck is the ballpark oriented the way that it is? Not only is the wind always blowing in off the water, but if you stand off to the side of the shake shack line and crane your neck over the railing, you get a super awesome view of the Manhattan skyline and at the right time of night, a really pretty sunset. Why not make the skyline a focal point of the outfield? Why not make the inexplicable “Shea Bridge” in the outfield look like a suspension bridge, with the Manhattan skyline behind it, and have it look like the awesome Mets skyline logo? How freaking dumb are the Wilpons?

Gub Gub: You’re thinking of Chief Yeehaw!   Chief Yahoo is an 84-year old seat usher with an AOL emaill

Lunar verLander: …did this dentist named Bank have bills of varying denominations?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t go in!

Dan Szymborski: Do dentists do a lot of cash transactions?

Dan Szymborski: “Doc, let’s keep this filling…between us. <wink>”

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Would the worst World Series ratings be the Rockies versus the A’s or Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Rockies/A’s

D: Can ZIPS do anything to enforce is ROS projection of 3 HR on Mookie Betts? I would like him to be forced to hit more HR.

Dan: Has baseball reached a point were it doesn’t have to worry about individual holds outs like Levon Bell in the NFL? I know stars did it in the past but that was all pre- free agency right?

Dan Szymborski: Holding out has more consequences in baseball, so it’s not actually a thing anymore.

Dan Szymborski: Restricted List can easily result in delaying FA by a year.

Dan Szymborski: I believe Le’Veon Bell can just show up on Week 10 and not lose anything but the salary

LFC Mike: How about Rockem Sockem Robots after 11 innings?

Morbo: CHAR is being calculated very carefully. The replacement chat host it understood to be a blank page or a non-existent chat.

Dan Szymborski: On t hat note, time for me to depart for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me. As a reminder, you can find my full-time at FanGraphs so I’m now without a paywall — though your contribution and becoming a member is greatly appreciated — and I hope I don’t suck.

Dan Szymborski: Also DSzymborski on twitter.

Morbo: Dan’s CHAR TODAY 6.3048