Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/5/2019

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And thus it begins.

12:01
Matt: So about the zips prospect rankings? When it happening?

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup!

12:02
Guest: What do you make of the Yankees missing out on Jhon Diaz and then immediately trading for international spending money? Also does the Yankees reneging on their deal with a J2 prospect impact their ability to make future deals?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s perhaps something in the story I have missed as I only know the basics. IIRC, the Yankees ran into cap issues from previous international signing.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I doubt it will affect anything long-term.

12:03
Mason Jarre: Who you seen making it out of the AL WC foursome: oak and Tampa?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the ZiPS, the primary difference has been schedule – with the A’s getting a significant advantage and the Rays a significant disadvantage (about 30 points of opposing WPCT)

12:04
CamdenWarehouse: a Dan chat on Thursday? I am not prepared. I did not study for this.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Szym City’s army has grown large enough to annex Jay’s chats. Or we swapped days. I prefer the one in which I’m a warlord.

12:05
Randy: Is there anything to be excited about with Griffin Canning for next year or is he just a guy?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m still very optimistic about Canning. He was quite solid this year, has a deep enough repertoire to succeed and he managed with very few professional innings.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Advanced college pitcher or not, it’s still a long way, competition wise, from the majors

12:07
O’s fan: Should I be happy that the Tigers are worse than the O’s or bummed that, terrible as they are, the O’s might miss out on the #1 pick?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A little miffed. Though the O’s can only blame themselves; the Tigers had the harder loss environment, being in a weak division.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Orioles were admiraby terrible against the Yankees, but they didn’t show that same clutch incompetence against teams like the Blue Jays and Angels.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you’re going to finish at the bottom of the league, you can’t just lose to the good teams. You have to lose against those OK teams too.

12:10
Koba: What can the phillies do (if anything) to get to the level of the Braves going into next season?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: $$$$$

12:10
stever20: Which do you think is more concerning for the Dodgers?  Ryu or Jansen?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jansen as the bullpen isn’t deep.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s also ask the neural network abotu this one!

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which do you think is more concerning for the Dodgers? Ryu or Jansen?

A: The most obvious answer is the Dodgers’ closer. With Kenley Jansen’s performance so so far, it’s pretty easy to pick him. But if the Dodgers’ rotation remains the same as last year, they’ll need a different starter and bullpen for the playoffs. And if the Dodgers’ bench isn’t much better in 2017, they’ll have little trouble finding help. And if the Dodgers’ bench is better in 2017, then they’ll need another one. Of course, every playoff team needs a bullpen on a team that doesn’t have one. (The Dodgers are 2-0 in the NLDS.) I also believe that a Jansen-esque performance will be necessary for the Dodgers to make their case. For instance, if the Dodgers win the division, the bullpen could benefit.

B: I think the biggest question mark for the Dodgers is their starting rotation. I see the Dodgers trading the No. 3 starter by the deadline, but if I’m the Dodgers, I want a veteran presence behind Clayton Kershaw

12:11
bcb: Why?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Why not?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (It’s really happening, now the O’s are on the way. Why not? We can win this thing, why not?)

12:12
Tom F: Who do you think ZIPS will like more in 2020 Austin Meadows or Danny Santana?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Meadows.

12:12
Surprise Eclipse: Historically, the Thursday weird bar is a very high one to clear, but I am confident it can be achieved here today.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hang on there a minute tiger, I didn’t say anything about high bars.

12:14
OddBall Herrera: New rule for September roster expansion: we take the term “Taxi Squad” to heart, and you’re allowed to play anyone on the 40 man roster, but you have to call them on the dugout phone when they’re needed and they have to drive a taxi to the stadium, death race style, from a sufficiently distant point and within a certain time limit.

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I could endorse this.

12:14
Harvey Specter: How do Scherzer’s injuries affect his projections going forward (still 4.1 fWAR for 2020?)? He’s something of an anomaly as a late bloomer with a rubber arm so I’m curious how long he can keep this up.

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They probably won’t have a huge projection other than moving the IP distribution a little leftwards

12:15
Billy Pilgrim : VerHagen had a WHIP of 1 and a 8.28 K/9 in August. Legitimate improvements or just a hot month.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He looked good on his Twins start, but that’s the only time I think I’ve seen him int he last month.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the Twins start, he didn’t leave his slider hanging awkwardly.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At least as far as I remember. Would have to dig into the data to give a better answer.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He always had stuff that should have resulted in a better pitcher than he’s been.

12:16
Bo: Who’s a bigger threat in the NLDS, the winner of the Central or the WC game winner?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The WC game winner might be the loser of the central!

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Nats are probably a larger threat in a theoretical NLDS than the NL Central teams

12:17
Bob: Isaac Paredes gets dinged by scouts for not having a typical infielder build. Could you go into more detail in what ZiPS likes so much about him? Does ZiPS has an opinion on his eventual defensive position and how good he might be there?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: From the scant minor league data, I have him as a below-average SS and a slightly above-average 3B.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes him because largely guys who play as decently as he did at a young age at fairly advanced levels tend to work out

12:19
Gub Gub: Can you answer today’s questions with Transformer?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not all of them, but SOME of them!

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Transformer’s answer:

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure.

Why did a group of scientists, from different countries, try to make the most complicated machine of all time?

In the beginning, we had two goals. One was to do something that doesn’t seem practical. The other was in order to try to find a common ground between different cultures that might lead to a useful innovation. And if that happens, we could create something very practical. Then we looked into it. We did some experiments with it, and it all ended up good.

What’s the meaning of the Transformer?

It’s a transformer that transmits your thoughts to the outside world. Because, at the core of our machine is the idea of a person. You just walk around and pick up the Transformer. Then you transmit to the outside world in order to create your own thoughts. If you take the Transformer away from its owner and do strange things around it, a certain number of people are affected; that’s why it’s called a machine.

12:20
Matthew E: If you’re the Blue Jays, how do you sort through their various outfield options–Gurriel, Hernandez, Grichuk, McKinney, Fisher, Alford, Davis, and even maybe Pompey?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: high-stakes round robin tournament?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, you play the better projected ones in 2020 and try to find playing time, either in MLB or AAA for the rest.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Avoid signing any veteran free agents for these roles, ideally

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Option issues make this trickier.

12:21
Redleg Nation: Perhaps a bit early for this question but I’ll shoot anyway. What move(s) would you like to see the Reds make this offseason to solidify their chances at October baseball? I need some hope over here.

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m actually fairly hopeful about their 2020 roster!

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And with apologies to Tucker Barnhart, I’d really like to see Grandal in Cincy

12:23
Matt: There is too much excitement on a Thursday for Dan SzymBOREski. Monday’s were perfect.

12:24
Gub Gub: Is the Mountcastle strategery a brilliant plan to avoid late-season injury, or an Orioles plan to avoid relevance?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think in Mountcastle’s case, it’s a 40-man roster issue.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would have liked to see Hays, but I believe they’re being cautious because of his injury history

12:26
Matt: In the scenario where Stanton comes back within the next week, and look putrid for the final 2.5 weeks of the season…he has to watch the postseason from his couch, no?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s hard to cut him from the roster as long as he’s around

12:26
Matt: With Severino coming back from injury, and German approaching an “innings limit” (in the sense that it would represent a new career high…by a lot)…and Happ being incredibly ineffective. How would you deploy them in the Post Season? Happ with an opener and German/Sevy caddying each other (3-4 IP each)? Leave Happ off the roster and German & Sevy each get openers? Some other different option?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you try to rest them as much as you can in September (the Yankees have a 10 game lead) and try to not be too cute in the postseason.

12:27
Guest: Dan, I don’t completely understand your focus on letting young players play at the MLB level to see what they have. Isn’t that what the minors are for? How much more valuable is MLB data than AAA data? It seems like it would be better to retain a year of control instead of playing them in a wasted year. Obviously, this is from the team’s point of view and the fan would likely rather see developing young players instead of watching a bunch of veterans lose.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Usually, we’re talking about players with nothing left to prove in AAA.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I believe that with talent, you have to *challenge* it as much as possible. The hottest fire makes the strongest steel and all that.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I am not a blacksmith and am not sure if the saying is true).

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And we can do a lot with minor league numbers, I’m one of the biggest advocates around (and I don’t just mean belly size)

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the best indicator of playing in MLB is still playing in MLB.

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think Tauchman was anywhere as good as he’s played this year.

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But he had like a .950 and 1.000 OPS the final two years in AAA

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Would he really be learning to go against MLB pitching by putting an 1.100 OPS against guys not good enough to be in MLB?

12:30
Tim’s Neighbor: Are the AAA HR numbers going to cause ZIPS to have a mental breakdown requiring ZIPS to spend a long weekend at some sort of digital spa?

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The translations have a built in adjustment for level of league offense!

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of funny, classic PCL type translations

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, translations actually projected Billy ashley perfectly

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And you’ll see no drop in raw stats from some of the pitchers.

12:32
Mookie: Mookie Betts is way more valuable to the Red Sox next year than whatever the Red Sox would get in return for the right to pay him $30 million right? As a Sox fan I cringe when people seriously suggest it because I’m pretty sure I’m right.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably? But I don’t think they’d actually trade him for a crappy package.

12:33
George: Red Sox are probably not making the playoffs this year.  Do you think they should gear up in the offseason and try and make one more run while they still have Mookie, or trade him while he still has value?  If so, what does a return for him look like?

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think there’s enough core talent that you look at retooling.

12:33
Gub Gub:

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: These are all lies.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have to be cajoled into wearing a suite and tie and I have never had a man bun.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve had a hockey mullet, but not a man bun.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I don’t get a haircut, I can end up like Phil Kessel at his most disheveled.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:36
Transformer Chat: Dan szymboraki fangraphs chat – 9/5/2019, 11:00:04 PM #3712

I dont think that, when someone makes a very good point, you should just ignore it (which is a common thing to do).

I think, the reason you dont seem to be able to reply without being rude and insulting people, is because you use the language of the community, which is much harsher, and therefore more effective. The only time I’m ever offended in a discussion is if somebody seems to have something negative to say. If a discussion becomes heated enough, where only one side’s points can be stated, it’s almost inevitable that one side will respond by calling the other side out for being ignorant, stupid or simply not being a good person.

This is my own personal problem, but I would rather people be less rude if they want to know your points, instead of just not responding. However, even if you dont like the language, the general behavior that these communities are full of, it’s better than an ignorant, stupid and disrespectful person.

Also, I do

12:36
Sean: Dan, WoW Classic has been incredible. It has more than exceeded my expectations and I really did miss things how they were in Vanilla. Did you hop on board?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t yet.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I prefer the talent trees.

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But when it comes down it: I’m spoiled. The same quality-of-life improvements in Final Fantasy XIV that keep me from ever playing Final Fantasy XI again are the same relationship as Wow and WoW classic. Unless I missed something.

12:37
brad: Dan, has there been any talk about updating WAR to lessen the impact of defense since the current three true outcome state of baseball reduces balls in play, thus reducing the impact of defense?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s more a bWAR issue since fWAR uses FIP

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not sure what Sean’s thinking is right now.

12:37
Slapshot: What percentage of HOF votes would you expect Justin Verlander to get his first year on the ballot?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 80

12:37
Dreamin: Ketel Marte – actually this good, or due for a significant fall next year?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Significant fall but likely still REALLY good.

12:38
Sean: Dan, how does ZiPS see Ketel Marte the next few years? FG currently shows 2.8 – 3.0 fWAR which seems low at this point. His ISO tops at .167 which also seems way too low at this point

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Remember, those are preseason projections.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a mechanism for in-season long-terms

12:39
Semaj: Do you think K. Calhoun signs with AZ in the offseason (assuming LAA does not keep him)?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a bit too soon to worry about that! It depends what needs pop up. I actually thin kthere’s a reasonable case for LAA to retain him.

12:40
Semaj: Do you think any MLB team will be able to persuade Roki Sasaki to play in the US rather than NPB?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s quite possible – there have been a *lot* of scouts looking at him. And I don’t think they’re sending scouts for the purpose of checking him out for years down the road.

12:40
Matt: Thoughts on Brock Burke? Out performing his peripherals, but has had 3 solid starts (some would say they were…quality). Could he be a legit back-end guy moving forward?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s possible. His changeup moves nicely, but I think he still needs to integrate it more as a weapon because his stuff isn’t deep and there’s a lefty issue.

12:41
Kylie McJenner: What’s the traditional % of top 100 prospects who bust? Is this %  getting lower because of better scouting/data?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Haven’ tseen it expressed as a % simply because that’s a tricky binary category.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually researched this recently.

12:41
CamdenWarehouse: I prefer my bars at the standard 40-42 inches

12:41
Towely: wanna get high?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: LETS ASK TRANSFORMER

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Completion
Wanna Get High? Play I’m down to try and do a little bit of weed at least. Play I just wanna be high once in a while, even if it’s just for a few minutes. Play I know I wanna do it, and we did this before, okay? Play Now I gotta go.

In a chat window, click on the Chat Head icon.

Play Augh… I was hoping for a smoke. Play You should try this out. Play What happened to me being a smoker?

Play I’m going to try a few joints. Play I’ve got a hangover. Play Why can’t I take a day off before I do that again?

Play You’re not gonna believe what I’m saying. Play No one ever said weed helped me.

Play I don’t think I could smoke for a whole day. Play If I did, I’d get high and be on my way.

Play Why can’t I just get high? Play Ha ha ha ha.

Play Ha ha ha ha ha ha…

12:42
PD: When you screw up a projection, which color of sharpie do you use to change it?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The scarlet that comes from my supply of Carson’s lifeblood.

12:43
Guest: Does Ryon Healy crack an MLB roster next year at all?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes, but barely

12:44
TronJavolta: Hey Dan – James Karinchak seems under the radar except in Cleveland.  Is this because he doesn’t project well at his age?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He interests me – it’s not like he throws 86

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Command’s iffy at times, but anyone who strikes out *that* many guys has my attention, no matter the size or age

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Older relief prospects don’t tend to get much interest

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sicne it’s not like they’ll come in and be four-WAR starters.

12:45
CamdenWarehouse: Is Scherzer a HoF lock at this point?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s nearing there.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he gets in on peak if he gets hit by a car.

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I think he’s at the point where simply putting some bulk into his numbers gets him over the hump

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Scherzer retires and becomes a monk, he has the Johan Santana Hall case.

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: *I* would have strongly considered Santana on my ballot (I don’t have 10 years in BBWAA yet).

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But most BBWAA members did not.

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Coming into the season, ZiPS had Scherzer finishing at 243-133, ERA+ of 129, 3256 innings and 76 WAR. I think he would get into the Hall with that.

12:49
v2micca: Lots of young Talent and a solid farm system.  How bullish (if at all) are you on the White Sox 2020 season?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Moderately so. They’ve had some pithcing injury setbacks.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There seems to be too much wheel-spinning at the MLB level at times too.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why they were so determined to give Jon Jay as many AB as they could when he was healthy

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thankfully, they bought Mendick’s contract

12:51
CamdenWarehouse: The Cy Young is Verlander’s to lose, no?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It probably is now

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though it would be a tougher vote for me

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Verlander isn’t *obviously* having a better season than Cole or Morton in my eyes

12:52
I know…: …the Astros are AL favorites and for good reason. But the version of Tanaka/Paxton/German that’s been around the last month, plus the bullpen, I don’t think it would be some absolute shock if the Yankees won, though that seems to be the consensus.

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Short series! It wouldn’t be a shock if the O’s won a 5 or 7-game series or two

12:53
Guest: Dan, I don’t completely understand your focus on letting young players play at the MLB level to see what they have. Isn’t that what the minors are for? How much more valuable is MLB data than AAA data.

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not sure if this is a repeat question or I answered this question above without printing the question.

12:53
thecaptain99: Who do you see landing Gerrit Cole in the Offseason?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it would happen, but I’d LOVE to see the Twins go after him with the vigor they went after Darvish before 2018

12:53
Syndergaardengnomes: What do the Mets do with Edwin Diaz next year?  They can’t just pencil him back in at closer, can they?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Of course they will

12:53
Guest: Your Wu-Tang name: VENTURER RAPID

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s see what transformer says!

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Completion
Your Wu-Tang name: Wu-Tang Clan

Where you come from: Oakland

You grew into it: A year before joining Wu-Tang, A Wu-Tang Clan’s album “Ride Wit Me” topped the hip-hop charts.

What’s the best thing about your childhood and how it changed your life?

There was a lot of drugs that my parents did to get me in trouble. They did drugs all the time so they thought I was in trouble when I was really not.

What was your upbringing like?

We had to put my dad through medical school for me. My father always had a hard time going to school. He was a heavy smoker, so he had to go through medical school for me.

How did you get your hair cut?

I’m not sure.

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Transformer understood.

12:54
Billy Beane: Dan, if you, as a warlord, took over Jay’s chat, but in doing so lost your own chat, then that seems like a pyrrhic victory. You’re a pretty mediocre warlord.

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But what if I’m still the feudal overlord over Monday and now have a secret alliance with Jay?

12:55
J: Does ZiPS have a way for accounting for run environment? Like can it do conditional projections if the ball is unjuiced next season? Or do you just consider everything relative to league average?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses the recent year averages.

12:55
Jim Leyland Palmer: I know Anthony Rendon still isn’t discussed enough by the general baseball fan populous. But can baseball writers put a moratorium on (seemingly reflexively) calling him underrated every time he is written about? (i.e. “Anthony Rendon, who is criminally underrated, plays baseball for Washington”). We get it! There hasn’t been an article written about Rendon in the last couple years that doesn’t have the word underrated in it. How can a player be underrated when every baseball writer thinks he’s underrated?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think what’s implied is that he’s underrated by the *average fan*

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But at least 2019’s most underrated player is actually underrated. Remember when half the writers thought Garret Anderson was the most underrated?

12:56
Sterv: Let’s settle this, Dan.  Who will be crowned the home run king this year?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: According to the early 90s arcade game, Ninja Baseball Batman, an electrified Babe Ruth zombie is still the home run king.

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:58
Guest: Bauer blamed Skyline Chili for his drop in performance since going to the Reds.

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Seems reasonable

12:58
Fangraph’s lurker: Jaffe has hit this point already and I have too, but overall, at what point does all these “most homers for ____” just seem like a joke? Pillar, soler, we have a lot of players at or passed 40 HRs already

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s already a joke! We do the HR records in almost parody now.

12:59
Sean: I don’t understand the “Quality of life” in retail – it makes it SO BORING! You lose almost every RPG element, it’s so easy to get gear and consumables, classes are uniform, choices are eliminated, etc. Retail feels more like an action game than an RPG at this point whereas Classic goes back to being a true RPG.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have fond memories of needing half a dozen mules to be able to craft in FFXI or wait four hours for a party

12:59
Trent: So, Aaron Sanchez is out for the year now.  Maybe we should pump the brakes a little bit the next time we want to anoint the Astros front office and their pitching coach as the Gods of Baseball.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nobody said they were magic!

1:00
ben: Classical-musical question: There’s so many versions of each symphony. How do I know which one to pick when listening to a piece for the first time?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can usually find recommendations!

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you’re not familiar with a piece, an intepretation that isn’t too far out there is usually a good first choice.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless there’s something specific you’re looking for.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (You can always hit me up)

1:00
Kretin: Are you a fan of r/imsorryjon?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what this is.

1:00
Dale: Can you ask Transformer where my dad went?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Completion
Where did Dale’s dad go?

I think he went to work. Dale’s dad is a retired engineer.

Why is Marty so sure of the car’s history?

Because he was born in this Corvette. He’s got a Corvette’s heart.

What’s in the trunk when Marty’s in the shed?

He forgot who the trunk belonged to — the kid who gave him his mother’s underwear.

Why wasn’t Marty seen in the shed when he and Skunk One were escaping from the police station?

He was driving away on his own, and his headlights got cut.

Doesn’t it make Dale look like an idiot if he thinks the same thing Marty does?

Dale and I are on good terms. He knows I’m good, and he likes to tell me how much better I am than he is — or as close as possible.

Is it true that people think the family owns the Corvette?

Sometimes. I don’t tell people that stuff. The good people in the industry want to share.

1:01
Matt: So, the other day I got yelled at at work. And I was all like “the bathroom is 50 yards away, but my trash can is *right here*”.

1:01
Nick: Do you intentionally use relatively obscure words in your articles and headlines?  I knew without looking at the author that you had penned this morning’s take on the Tigers’ “nadir.”

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not intentional, but I do have a word fetish. Every words has its own little shape, its own little town and timbre.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: tone, not town

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: each word does not have a town

1:02
Matt: I feel like is Scherzer where to get hit by a car, it wouldn’t actually happen. He would stare the vehicle down until it melted into oblivion.

1:03
Guest: I want to start on OOTP season with the worst team. Which team has the worst combined farm system and payroll situation, as well as a pretty bad team currently?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Royals?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rockies might be fun to start with. They have an oddly constructed roster and a couple HUGE highlights, which gives you some interesting big decisions to make.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Do you build around Arenado/Marquez? Or do you trade them?

1:04
Oddball Herrera: Am I the only one who gets annoyed when announcers say a pitcher struck out the side even though they gave up hits or walks?

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOU ARE NOT SIRE

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SIR

1:04
Surprise Eclipse: I watch a lot of “Forged in Fire” and I believe the time spent in the fire is more crucial than temperature of the fire. So, “The hottest fire can potentially make the strongest steel if you don’t leave it in for too long”. I’ll admit, it doesn’t roll off the tongue.

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Isnt’ that also thet name of a Dragonforce album?

1:05
CamdenWarehouse: what if Carson is still the overlord for all of the weekdays and you just don’t see him pulling the strings?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OH GOD

1:05
Srhkthew2: Do you play Sporcle? If so what’s your go-to quiz?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Occasionally. I like to go wtih random ones.

1:05
Kiley DcManiel: I would love nothing more than Charlie Morton, Cy Young winner

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s too bad I’m not an AL CY  voter because it’s a fascinating one.

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I’m NL ROY this year, which shoudl be fun

1:05
CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles home runs allowed has been the cruelest of jokes

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The best you mean.

1:06
IsIt2020Yet?: Saddest, best looking ballpark you’ve ever seen?

I don’t run the Pirates. If I did, this look a couple minutes before first pitch would scare the hell out of me:
4 Sep 2019
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Pirates aren’t in a good place right now.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And PNC Is mildly scary because in the press box, you’re halfway in the clouds.

1:06
Matt: Any idea what the record is for most HRs hit on a Tuesday before 7:30 EST? Season or career, either is acceptable.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, but it’s probably held by the Yankees against the Orioles.

1:06
Billy Beane: Dan would you ever want someone to teach you enough Python to make ZiPS able to be updated in real time or in actual code instead of an Excel monster? That seems like a good use of your time during an offseason.

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s something worth doing; I’m working on a simpler model that FG can automatically update.

1:07
CamdenWarehouse: I do have a word fetish. Every words has its own little shape, its own little town and timbre. I just have to use it so often. I’m sure other people will recognize that there’s a great similarity there, right?”

“There isn’t. And it’s hard to talk about it, not that I don’t want to talk about it.”

“But it’s like you and me. You’re the one who’s always saying it. Like you can’t speak your mind and get away with it. I know that because I know who you really are. You’re like an angel of a person who doesn’t really talk, so it’s more comfortable for you to hide it and pretend like no one really knows about it, then make people wonder if you do.”

“I am not hiding it! Why is that your main point?”

“I’m getting ahead of this line, but I have one. Your eyes, like mine, don’t show too much emotion. That’s why some people have trouble telling people your feelings. So if they ask, it just doesn’t come out right. But that’s okay. For you

1:07
Dale: “Because he was born in this Corvette. He’s got a Corvette’s heart.”  What a line.

1:07
Bill: Timbre is a nice written word but the English pronunciation is too annoying to use out loud.

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You hear it a lot in music

1:08
stever20: Did you see that Sale was transferred to 60 day IL on Sunday?  What are your thoughts on him for next year?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MIld worry

1:08
Roger: So you’re saying the Twins should go hard after Cole; fail to sign him; and settle for signing (again) Anibal Sanchez?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I said SHOULD, not will

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The year’s turned out well for the Twins, but they shouldn’t have entered the season with a lower payroll than last year

1:08
Meno: Who will win the NL Cy Young and why is it Sonny Gray?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Gray finishes in the top five

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: finishing in top five requires beating at least one of Scherzer/Strasburg/deGrom/Buehler/Ryu and there are a few others.

1:10
Matt: Am I the only one who thinks the term “base hit” needs to be reserved for singles? ITS NOT PLURAL

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Why add base hit

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What other kind of hit is there that doesn’t get you a base?

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now, there’s such a thing as a base out (fielder’s choice)

1:11
Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to head off for another week! Thanks for joining me everyone!

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I LIKE WHEN PEOPLE DO MY WORK FOR ME

1:11
Matt: There was a tweet (article?) floating around asking *might* the Verlander media spat affect his Cy Young votes. While I think it’s unlikely, it was amazing how many writers jumped on it needing to be the first to say that THEY ARE UNBIASED DAMMIT. Heyman even interjected, citing the reporter’s previous votes for Verlander (ignoring the actual question of whether the recent spat might have changed his mind). You’re a pretty objective, level-headed guy. Am I crazy to think that *maybe* it could have an impact on at least a few people?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It might, but I’d hope those people would turn down voting.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Mike Trout murdered my family, I hope I could still vote him for MVP and if I didn’t, I hope that I could recuse.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, if I had been asked to vote in NL MVP last year, I would have recused as I had a preseason prop bet for Christian Yelich.

1:13
Bill: Daniel John Szymborski is an American writer of sabermetrics primarily known for his work with baseball projections and minor league translations.  In 2002, Szymborski was hired to the New York Yankees research and development department.  Following that, he helped produce a version of the “Baseball Prospectus” for the New York Mets, providing baseball data for the first time to the public. It was at that point that he began his love affair with sabermetrical projections and in the years following, he has developed a “projection engine” for baseball players.  In this article, we’ll explore the development of this engine in great detail and see how it works to forecast future performance.  While we are still far from an open book on this subject, we think this will be a useful, and informative, discussion for sabermetricians and baseball fans alike.
The development of Sabermetrics The development of sabermetrics (also known as statistic science or advanced statistics) has been a long and arduous process.

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a miss there from Transformer!

1:13
Matt: What if it was the actual awe of Mike Trout’s awesomeness that killed your family…then it’d probably be a bit easier, right? It being unintentional, and all.

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In fairness, my family is kinda small in the US (most of my living near relatives are German) and they don’t run very fast, so it wouldn’t be hard wiping out my family.

1:14
stever20: you sure Buehler would be close to the top 5 right now for Cy Young?  I sure as hell don’t think so.  He’d be frankly lucky to get a vote.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He OUGHT to be

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, now I’m going for real.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was tempted by an ethics question.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THE END CHAT BUTTON IS HIT, THERE IS NO OUT CLAUSE

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/5/2019 by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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