Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/22/14

11:59
Dan Szymborski: And awaaaaaaaaay we go!

11:59
Dan Szymborski: No presidents today as I’m not at home and don’t have the stuff on this laptop

12:00
Comment From Northsider
I choose you, Danichu!

12:00
Comment From Ringtone Composer
What are the odds (per ZiPS, say) that there is at least one tiebreaker to determine a WC team this year?

12:00
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have that open, but it’s likely maybe 10% or so?

12:01
Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
ughhhh two chats at once? cool

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Two chats at once?

12:01
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Zym, can you explain why the KC/CLV game last month was suspended and not called final?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: The game was stopped in the middle of an inning in which the road team took the lead.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Under those circumstance, a game will be suspended.

12:03
Comment From Pennsy
Atlanta: Great collapse, or the greatest collapse?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: I doubt Braves fans think it’s so great.

12:03
Dan Szymborski: I still give it to the Giants. Blowing a 9.5 game lead – the biggest second week in june lead ever blown – in 3 weeks is very impressive. Blew it faster than the ’69 Cubs.

12:03
Comment From Vslyke
Surely the Braves will fire Fredi Gonzalez so the new GM can choose a manger right?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s generally believed it’s likely that he’ll hang onto his job, but he really shouldn’t. Nothing’s certain until there’ sa new GM though.

12:04
Dan Szymborski: While lineup construction doesn’t mean all *that* much in the big picture…

12:05
Dan Szymborski: …someone who thought B.J. Upton should get the most at-bats in a game like a third of the time would not be employed by me.

12:05
Comment From Some Random Guy
With the season almost over, time for the important questions: any timetable yet for the 2015 Zips projections?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: There’s never a specific time table, though due to two trivia questions answered on twitter, the Braves and Rays are the first two teams this year. Everyone else gets a random number.

12:06
Comment From RTC
John Hart as #Barves new GM… thoughts?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: He’s just an interim – I don’t think he wants to wade until a full-time GM type job again.

12:06
Comment From STiVo
[cover it live issues–I hope I’m not spamming you] Back of the envelope: How many WAR would be accrued over a season by a second baseman for whom each tool graded as a 50?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of a difficult question to answer.

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Since I’ve never looked specifically at scouting grades and WAR in this way, I think it’s better I don’t venture a guess rather than make a wild one.

12:07
Comment From Farting for Science
I’m confused about the input to the Monte Carlo sims used to determine playoff odds. Do they work off of a theoretical winning percentage for each team, and then play these percentages against each other?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: I can only say what I do for ZiPS, I can’t vouch for any other methods.

12:07
Dan Szymborski: (The ZiPS ones are the ones you see occasionally on Twitter and ESPN)

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I use the ZiPS percentile projections for the projected roster.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: To get a distribution of the underlying win percentage for the teams.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Rather than a simple assumed number and then get all binomial up in its ass.

12:09
Dan Szymborski: So each team gets a distribution of expected ability.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Technically, what I do is Las Vegas, not Monte Carlo as I use the same large random seed each time.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: And after that, each game is simulated using the odds ratio.

12:11
Comment From Jake
Thoughts on Tanaka’s start?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Was super nice not to see his start end in 2 innings with him clutching his elbow or something. Good movement, though it did look like he was taking a bit off his stuff.

12:12
Comment From LA
Ethier and cash for E Jackson, who says no?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: Heh. I think if the Dodgers were really willing to eat money, Ethier would be gone already

12:12
Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
referring to nicholas Minnix’s chat happening at the same time, which he just clarified is now at 3 pm.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: So we don’t have to fight?

12:13
Comment From Ryan Seacrest
Dan I’m in championship in H2H points league. Would you play both Ventura and Salazar as they face each other tomorrow? Or would you drop Salazar and go with Niese vs HOU later this week?

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I’d go with Salazar.

12:13
Comment From Lukes Father
What order would you introduce a child to the Star Wars movies? Theatrical release (IV, V, VI, I, II, II) or Episodic (I, II, III, IV, V, VI)?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: episodic order, I think

12:14
Dan Szymborski: If I do it release order, I don’t want to upset him by having to see cool Darth Vader be a whiny little Hayden Christenson.

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Christensen

12:15
Comment From HotAir
Do you think the Angels make a splash on SP in the off season? or will it be looking for solid back end depth.

12:15
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a real possibility, though they won’t completely forego

12:16
Comment From Brad
would you take chance and start degrom this week in weekly league? collins said he will decide in couple days whether he makes his last start or not. I can go with 2 start peavy or pineda instead. thanks.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably go with Peavy and Pineda

12:16
Comment From Mike
Interesting stat the no one is talking about this year. Pirates pitching, despite 2nd lowest total WAR, leads all MLB with 50.6% GB rate. Next closest is Dodgers with 47.8%. Huge gap in the distribution.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: They’ve tried to assemble the team that way.

12:17
Comment From Baseball!
Do you think you’re likely more related to people with last names similar to yours than to others? So, like the Stanford Prison Experiment guy, Phil Zimbardo and you–4th cousins?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, that seems unlikely.

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I can trace my family pretty far back and I think it’s too much wrong part of world

12:19
Dan Szymborski: The Szymborski part is formerly-Angevin Pole, my German sides are northwest germany and prussian junker respectively, and my maternal grandfather was a sephardic jew

12:19
Dan Szymborski: So probalby not much Italian in there

12:19
Comment From Bill
Heard any good conspiracy theories on Card GI woes? Haven’t visited Pittsburgh since almost a month ago, so it’s not likely a poisined pierogi on the road. I’m actually surprised this kind of thing doesn’t happen more often.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised it doesn’t happen too often too

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Stomach viruses can be pretty contagious

12:19
Comment From Xolo
What can we make of Andrew Cashner’s season? Adjusted for playing time, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball but is he more likely to make the jump to elite or fall back to the midrange?

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I think his built in injury risk likely keeps him from being elite

12:20
Comment From Derek
What does the A’s Starting Rotation look like opening day in 2015

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I doubt they make any big additions in the offseason – they’ll be sorting through what they have

12:21
Comment From Metsfaithful5
Still have Hamiliton over deGrom? And if so, Why?

12:21
Comment From Metsfaithful5
Outside of walks, deGrom has good numbers in every category.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Hamilton having a full season and playing some really spectacular defense edges him out in my book.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Though not by much.

12:21
Comment From More Like "Syzmborski Paternalistic Schism," Amirite
What does ZiPS think of multiple-TJ guys, e.g., Medlen?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: relatively poorly.

12:22
Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
i have a buddy who was saying he beleives the worst hitter should be hidden in the 6 spot, due to the way it works out with outs and such. all i could say was data shows lineup construction isnt that important. anything to help me out?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Look up tango’s lineup simulator and look at the diffs between a normal and an absolute crazy lineup

12:22
Comment From Sadday
That KC/CLE game cost me my bid to make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs in a 20 team league.. escobar needed ONE run or a steal

12:23
Comment From Jimmy
The Pirates have to be that one team no one wants to face right now, right?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: They’ve played very well since the break, but there are other teams I’d be more scared of, like Washington

12:24
Comment From Nuke Laloosh
At what point does it go from over thinking to smart planning to grab a top prospect, ie Buxton or Sano, in a dynasty/keeper? I’m in a 10 team keep 20 with minimal inflation.

12:24
Dan Szymborski: If you can get a player like that fairly inexpensively for a long time, there’s no reason not to take the opportunity

12:24
Dan Szymborski: I think Buxton will be better than Sano in real life but Sano has significant fantasy upside.

12:25
Comment From ar
what do you/zips think of jose fernandez next year?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Not going to venture a projection projection. I expect it will be solid, but a clear step down given the uncertainty

12:25
Dan Szymborski: That’s better, I’m 15 minutes behind the questions 25 minutes in.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Last week was weird, I was getting a Q like every 2 minutes, which was absurdly odd.

12:26
Comment From neal
have we ruled out the possibility the chris davis and steve pearce switched bodies via magic in spring training?

12:26
Comment From Brian
How many more games do the Royals need to win to feel good about a wildcard spot?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: 1 more than the Mariners or A’s 🙂

12:26
Comment From ar
well if he’s 50 for each tool, presumably he’s an average second baseman

12:26
Comment From STiVo
Okay–different back of the envelope: If a second baseman did everything average (100 wRC+, 0.0 UZR, 0.0 BsR, etc.), what would that player’s WAR be over 600 PA?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s that neatly.

12:26
Comment From ar
or are grades not scaled to position?

12:26
Comment From TB
Do you really do ZiPS completely in Excel?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Well, I have some third party plugins as well.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I save STATISTICA for the things I can’t do in Excel

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I couldn’t do ZiPS in *Vanilla* Excel

12:28
Comment From lowercase jeff
Thanks for chatting, Dave. Need some championship advice. In a standard H2H: Holland at home vs. HOU and OAK, Haren vs. SF and COL, Odorizzi @BOS and @CLE, or Cashner/Kennedy @SF?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: I’d take Anton Cashner and Iago Kennedy. -Dave

12:30
Comment From Pennsy
Is it as inevitable that the Cleveland and Atlanta MLB franchises will change their names as it is inevitable that the Washington NFL franchise will change its?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe it’s inevitable, but the de-emphasis on some of the more awkward aspects of their team names will continue.

12:31
Dan Szymborski: Like Cleveland will continue the deWahoo-izing process.

12:32
Comment From Bill
The biennial revolving door that is farm-system affiliations has turned again, with the result that Colorado Springs is no longer the Rockies’ problem, but now is the AAA team for … Milwaukee. How much is playing up there going to hurt an already dubious player-development program?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Colorado Springs isn’t even particularly awful as PCL teams go – the PCL itself is nuts

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I think the evidence more strongly suggests that some teams are more stupid at evaluating their players in extreme ballparks rather than it having a giant negative effect.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Though all things being equal, I’d rather have a more neutral environment

12:33
Comment From Lawyered
Any upcoming Supreme Court cases you’re interested in?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I tend to be most interested in first amendment issues.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: As I’m as close to a first amendment absolutist as you’ll find.

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Stuff like Reed vs. Gilbert Arizona

12:34
Comment From Jimmy
What value does Pedro Alvarez have right now a a trade asset? What would a reasonable return be for him?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Minimal

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Frankly, having a lousy year and being another year closer to FA really saps his value

12:35
Dan Szymborski: If he’s not hitting 30 HRs, he’s just not that valuable

12:35
Comment From David
So who do you have in the Nationals 4th Playoff Starter Derby ?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: I think you gotta go with Roark

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Though it’s close – Gio’s pitched better than his numbers

12:36
Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Do you see Strasburg as a top-5 pitcher on true talent going into 2015?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Not top 5

12:37
Comment From Slew (Seattle)
King Felix or The Society for AL Cy?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Gotta give the King the edge over Kluber. Yet another victory for monarchy.

12:37
Comment From Xolo
Do you agree with the idea that the Braves will trade one of Justin Upton or Heyward this winter?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: I think a new GM makes it more likely.

12:38
Comment From Pennsy
If you two do fight, I’m putting money on you. You’ve been learning fighting form from the best

12:38
Dan Szymborski: My dad?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: My dad was a tough dude, but being 6’5 and former Navy guy would be really helpful

12:39
Comment From Bo
For all the heat Frank Wren is (rightfully) catching re: FA signings, he’s been one of the better GMs at acquiring undervalued talent. Agree?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: I would agree. I think the Upton signing in particular did turn out worse than average expectation by a good bit

12:39
Comment From Kyle
How much do Javier Baez’s contact numbers worry you long term? He seems to have a better idea at the plate these days but is it something you see preventing him from sticking at the major league level or just something that makes him a career .230 hitter with good power numbers?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: They worry me but I wouldn’t go nuts quite yet.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: He’s very young and did the same thing at AAA in April too

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Now, I do think he’s always going to be among the leaders in strikeouts

12:41
Dan Szymborski: And will always be more of an awesomer Jose Valentin

12:41
Dan Szymborski: But Jose Valentin was actually a underrated player generally

12:41
Comment From Biondino
Christensen is the worst actor in the history of cinema.

12:41
Comment From Just Another Psycho in Your Chat, Probably
Razorblade held tightly to your carrotid, would you rather have Jose Altuve or Jason Kipnis on your team if you were a coach/GM?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: My chats attract a lot of psychopaths.

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Why not “a delicious pie being held for you in the event you have an answer, would you rather have Jose Altuve or Jason Kipnis on your team?”

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Why go right to the threats?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: It would be Altuve, but I can’t promise I won’t brain you as you walk away.

12:42
Comment From David
The best way to watch Star Wars is actually: IV, V, I (if you must), II, III, VI. It makes perfect sense that way, to tell Vader’s backstory after the big reveal while still preserving the real world timing as much as possible

12:43
Dan Szymborski: yeah, but the reveal would be kinda ruined by how sucktastic anakin skywalker is

12:43
Comment From Vslyke
Thanks for the answer. Also, do you think the Braves try to move Chris Johnson this offseason? Seems like he could command a decent return (unlike, say, BJ).

12:43
Dan Szymborski: If they can get something useful in return, absolutely.

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Johnson’s just not that good.

12:44
Dan Szymborski: He only has offensive value in those crazy years where he puts up a near-.400 BABIP

12:44
Dan Szymborski: And he fields at third base with all the grace and elegance of a Ken Davitian sex scene.

12:45
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Why, ever, expose a child to Episodes 1,2,3?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Well, that would be my first choice, but it wasn’t an option

12:45
Dan Szymborski: And I wanted to ask a question since it was the one dude that didn’t frame it as a threat.

12:46
Dan Szymborski: “YOUR LOVE ONES BEING SUSPENDED BY ROPE OVER A VAT OF BOILING OIL WHILE THEY ARE BEING LOWERED SLOWLY, WHAT ORDER SHOULD A CHILD WATCH THE STAR WARS MOVIES? is the more typical query.

12:47
Comment From Farting for Science
Does anyone compose worse dialogue than Lucas?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Well, the names he picks are even worse than the dialogue.

12:48
Dan Szymborski: If he was writing the new star wars movies, we’d probably get some character of unspeakable evil name Zap Zoobadoo or something.

12:48
Dan Szymborski: With our new hero, Glickglack McStarFighter!

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised that if some unnamed Nazi in one of the Indiana Jones movies actually had a canon-name of Hitler von Nazimann or something.

12:49
Comment From Bryan
Any thoughts on the upcoming Starving Buzzard nerf?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Overnerf I think. 5 mana is just too much for a 3/2, even with the card draw. 4 mana with a 2/3 would have been better, I feel.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Or instead, make it draw a card when you play a beast card, not for each best summoned. so 1 card for unleash the hounds, not frquently 3 or 4

12:51
Dan Szymborski: It had to be nerfed though, the fact that there was no top hunter deck that didn’t involve playing that combo as a big part of the plan meant it was too powerful

12:51
Dan Szymborski: As it is, I think you start seeing some cult master in there.

12:51
Comment From The Oriole Bird
What did you think about Jeter’s Gatorade spot? I hate the Yankees, but I’ll miss Jeter.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: I’m Jetexhausted.

12:52
Comment From THE average sports fan
What was your take on the Ron Washington presser? Do you believe him?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: You should never believe anything said at any press conference.

12:52
Comment From John
Does ZiPS use college stats?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Only when I absolutely have to.

12:52
Comment From Jake
If a 50 tool is average, a league average player can expect something like 2 WAR a year. If every tool is average, that implies every tool is average- hit, power, field, arm, speed. If a player is perfectly average at a middle infield position, (100 wRC+, 0 UZR/DRS/whatever, 0 BsR), he could expect something like 2.5 WAR. I don’t think statistical questions matter all that much in this case, but when McDaniel was explaining the 20-80 scale (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…), he put a 50 tool as an average position player/#4 starter, with .260 avg, 15-18 HR, something like that.

12:52
Comment From Mike Rizzo
In a very competitive 30-team keeper league with some work associates that allows me to have players at suppressed costs through first six years of their careers. Not losing anybody important this year, but after next year I have to decide whether to keep Denard Span, Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, or Doug Fister at full market value. Who do I resign or do I let them all go?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Heh.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: It always depends on the price. I’d probabyl be most inclined to keep Simmerman and Fister

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Z

12:54
Comment From Guest
what’s your favorite season of The Wire? just finished the show yesterday. for me it’s 4 > 5 > 2 > 1 > 3

12:54
Dan Szymborski: You like 3 the least? 2 and 3 are my favorite and I think they most capture the essence of Baltimore

12:54
Comment From Jake
Last year, McCann and Infante looked like one of the better signings of 2014, with at least a few wins of surplus value on each. Did the restof the league see something we didn’t? How do you like either going forward?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think they were that good. OK but both overpriced for what they bring

12:55
Comment From You Only Live Thrice
When you use ZiPS to project a player’s WAR, what do you use to project baserunning acumen?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of BSr – you’re in essence counting the positive aspects of a speedy player’s baserunning but not counting the negative of a speedy player’s runner advancement.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: The typical single or double of a slow player has more runner advancement potential than the single or double of a fast player.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: (Since slower players will have fewer infield singles and leg out fewer doubles)

12:57
Dan Szymborski: I’ve found that speed score stuff still predicts base advancement better than any actual measures of base advancement do, so I don’t use ’em

12:58
Comment From You Only Live Thrice
Chance of O’s/Nats World Series: 5-8%(ish)?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: A little less – Angels/Nats has edged them as the Angels have killed off the A’s in recent weeks.

12:58
Dan Szymborski: If Tigers put away KC, Detroit/Washington also more likely

12:59
Comment From GSon
Ruby Red w/ Ash Gray leather Mercedes SL or Carnelian Red Metallic with Barley leather Jaguar F5?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Probalby the Mercedes.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a flashy car guy though.

1:00
Dan Szymborski: I’ve driven the same Mazda 6 for 10 years now (still under 100K miles)

1:00
Dan Szymborski: If I wanted a flashy car, I’d have a flashy car. I’m sure I’ll always drive practical midsize sedans.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: At *most* maybe an audi tt

1:01
Comment From THE average sports fan
Olney thinks Reds should deal Cueto to fix the number of payroll issues they have, your thoughts?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Yes. I think the Reds no longer have the core to contend nor the payroll to accentuate the core to contend.

1:01
Comment From STiVo
How different would Stanton’s 2015 ZiPS projection be with/without face injury?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Not too much. ZiPS isn’t specific enough for stuff like facial injury.

1:02
Comment From GSon
In the finish of the suspended game, if you’re Tito.. do you give the ball back to “Davey” Crocket facing Moustakas followed by Atchison or do you go to Z-Mac for an attack?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Gotta be honest, I don’t remember the box score exactly – I know the Indians took a lead, but I’ll have to check on the rest of the game situation

1:02
Comment From DEN
How valuable is Mookie Betts in a trade now? would a potential acquirer put him at 2B or leave him in the OF?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s most valuable as an infielder.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Less interesting I think in the outfield. You at least have to *try* him at second and giving him the opportunity there

1:03
Comment From Jake
Sabathia’s 2015?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Meh

1:03
Comment From jocephus
if you can only keep one for the postseason roster, wacha or shelby?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: That’s tough – I’d probably go with Wacha since he simply has more upside int he playoffs.

1:04
Dan Szymborski: I’d try to keep both though. I’d like a health fallback even if Shelby isn’t my first chocie

1:04
Comment From KM
What do you think of Oscar Taveras next season? Big step-up in year 2 or more of the same?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I think he’ll be much better.

1:05
Comment From Pennsy
I would go see that movie where Pearce and Davis switched bodies. Gotta be a Disney film, and definitely gotta demonstrate the importance of family, though.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: So like another Freaky Friday remake? It Happened on Eutaw Street?

1:06
Comment From GSon
one more than the mariners or A’s..what about the Tribe?>>

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Indians are a real long shot.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: I probably wouldn’t bet like Indians unless I could get 60-1 or better.

1:06
Comment From Colby
If you could have Miguel Cabrera or Anthony Rizzo the next 3 years who would you take?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Including salaries? Rizzo. Even if I do, I think Rizzo.

1:07
Comment From Mike
McCutchen passed Stanton in WAR last night. Does he become the position player favorite for NL MVP?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: I think Stanton will actually get some credit for the way he lost the rest of the season

1:07
Dan Szymborski: though I think it just sealed the Kershaw MVP deal.

1:07
Comment From Jake
As it stands, NYY’s rotation in 2015: Tanaka, Pineda, Nova, Greene, Whitley/Sabathia/Phelps/etc. With McCarthy and Lester/Shields/Scherzer, are they looking at a top five staff?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: No.

1:08
Comment From Stephen
I read in ESPN the Mag your notes about how the Royals would have their playoff chances increase if they switch to a four-man rotation and dump Jeremy Guthrie into a long relief role. How many teams have actually done that though? To my knowledge it’s quite rare until you’re IN the playoffs.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Only a few percentage – we were just having fun with some hypotheticals

1:08
Dan Szymborski: I’m a fan of rolling the dice though.

1:08
Comment From GSon
The Indians name will remain.. the use of Chief Wahoo will and is being subtly fazed out

1:08
Comment From Loose Seal
Assuming Detroit and the White Sox spend a fair bit on free agents this offseason, Will there be a clear favorite in the AL Central? Seems like a very open three team race (Cleveland, Detroit, White Sox) with the Royals fading away and the Twins a few years off.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: I think Detroit can hang on another year, but the house is full of termites.

1:08
Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Would you still consider Rendon to be injury prone, even though he’s been healthy for awhile? I’m pretty sure he’s broken both ankles.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be worried to the extent of, say, Grady Sizemore, but it’s still something I’d keep in the bakc of my mind.

1:09
Comment From azruavatar
Do you see yourself ever transitioning from Fangraphs/ESPN/free-lancer to working for a club in-house?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Absolutely not.

1:10
Dan Szymborski: I love working for ESPN and media is a far better fit for me, skills and personality-wise, than working for a team woudl be.

1:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m a quippy, independent, obnoxious, opinionated, loudmouth. That’s not a great set for a team.

1:11
Dan Szymborski: And I would *hate* not being able to write. I enjoy the writing more than the number-crunching.

1:11
Comment From Xolo
What happens to Yonder Alonso? Does he find another starting job?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s rightfully considered a bust. He was always overrated as a prospect.

1:11
Comment From neal
do you mean that the tomahawk chop will go away eventually, please say yes

1:11
Dan Szymborski: I hope so. It’s kind of embarrassing.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: The Tomahawk Chop is like the sports equivalent over all those older 40s and 50s movies that have awkward scenes in which the protagonist slaps a woman.

1:13
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
With the current setup of the rotation Liriano Sat/Cole Sun, would you keep those guys starting to play for the home WC game? Or pull one and risk a road WC game with one available?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: You should have your best starter in the WC play-in game.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: It is the only game ahead of time that you know for certain will be an elimination game.

1:13
Comment From Reginald Denton III
Kluber or Sale?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Kluber. Sale’s my pick for the *best* pitcher this year, but 50-60 missing innings is a pretty tough obstacle when the competition is good

1:14
Comment From John
What does ZiPS stand for?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: sZymborskI Projection System

1:14
Comment From The Oriole Bird
What do you think the O’s will do with Markakis and Cruz this offseason?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Resign Markakis to a 2/24 or something, give Cruz a QO which he refuses again in the end

1:15
Comment From Pennsy
The Presidents. The fighting Presidents. You’re pretty much the Don King of the Oval Ring.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, should’ve had today’s matchup on my laptop!

1:15
Comment From John
What do you think of Drew Hutchison breaking out like Samardzija? Very similiar stats to Sharks’s 2013

1:15
Dan Szymborski: I like Hutchison, but I don’t see his upside as high

1:16
Comment From Bomok
If Frank Wren is fired, are the Braves going to rebuild? If the Mets saw Andrelton Simmons as a trade target, how much would he cost (trade)?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: He *was* fired!

1:16
Dan Szymborski: The Braves aren’t going to rebuild. I think they maintain an awkward trajectory.

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Simmons isn’t getting traded.

1:18
Comment From Guest
Why have the New York Mets refused to bring up Cesar Puello after the roster expansion?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: He’s really fallen out of favor in the organization and wasn’t particularly good this year.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: I would not be the least bit surprise if he’s outrighted off the 40-man after the season

1:19
Comment From a boblowblalawbomb
when does houston contend in the west? seems like sooner rather than later with the developing pitchers. maybe with an improved bullpen they could surprise. thoughts?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: A few years as it’s a tough decision

1:19
Comment From Peace, Man
Hoppy 7.3%-alcohol beer for your thoughts: Where will Rendon finish in NL MVP voting this year?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: See, now we’re talking. I expect maybe 5th.

1:19
Comment From Russ Martin
What are the odds the team that signs me this offseason ultimately regrets it? I mean, 32-year old catcher coming off a career year that is partially inflated due to high BABIP sounds like a recipe for a letdown…

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Very high.

1:19
Comment From a boblowblalawbomb
the yankees could be interested in chris johnson *shudders*

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Ouch.

1:19
Dan Szymborski: They already have Chris Johnson. It’s called A-Rod 6 years from now.

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Too mean?

1:19
Comment From Jonas
Could you explain how ERA is projected? Why would a projected ERA be different from projected FIP?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Estimates of team defense and for players with long careers, ERA over team becomes more predictive.

1:20
Comment From Anakin Skywalker
I have a question about midichlorians… What are midichlorians?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: They’re viruses that make you say cliched things.

1:20
Comment From Tom
The best way to introduce someone to Star Wars would be to show them the original IV, V, and VI, and then let them make their own decisions about both the new editions of those and of I, II, and III.

1:20
Comment From Chris
Do you think the Mets trading for Cespedes makes sense? They’ve got some pitching to spare and need an outfielder desperately, plus the Sox look like they’re a bit over-stocked in the OF…

1:20
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a great fit.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: You only get one year of Cespedes – I don’t think the Mets are in the position to add one-year guys like that and it’s not as if Cespedes is some major star.

1:21
Comment From Guest
Re the Rangers’ recent surge: Is there a significant difference in benefits between the league’s worst record and the second-worst?

1:21
Dan Szymborski: The draft pick. If you’re going to be horrible, be good at it.

1:22
Comment From sk
going into 2014, a fair number of teams – the Orioles, the Mariners, the Blue Jays, the Pirates, Brewers, the Reds, (maybe a couple others im blanking on) – went into the season projected to be around .500 teams or slightly better and didn’t make moves to get to 90 wins projected (according to FG projections). they seemed to bet on getting lucky (or their opponents getting unlucky) – do you think that’s a fair assessment? and a rational way of operating?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: I think teams too easy settle for the middle and pray and I think that can frequently be a poor idea. Some teams more than others.

1:22
Comment From Guest
What 1st baseman do you think the Mariners go after via trade or Fa?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: I think they ham-handedly accumulate more mediocre options.

1:22
Comment From Jon
Speaking of Star Wars names, why did NO ONE even wonder what Princess Leia’s last name was until Return of the Jedi? If Luke just asked her, he wouldn’t have needed the force to realize they were related.

1:23
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I understand. Her last name was that of her adoptive parents, no?

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Organa

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Now that I think of it, Obi-Wan did a crappy job hiding them.

1:26
Dan Szymborski: “OK, we want these kids not be found. Let’s hide one with a prominent senator. The other, we’ll hide with Darth Vader’s stepbrother because there’s no way Vader will think to check there. And I’m so sure that he won’t, we’ll still let him keep the last name, because presumably Darth Vader won’t remember his previous last name or bother to check it out.”

1:26
Comment From You Cannot Fight in Here, This Is the WAR Room
I really wish the Redskins would hurry it up with their de-wahooization. My Twitter feed is jammed up with ridiculous assertions that the team’s name is a tribute to all things Native American.

1:26
Comment From Bomok
Can we talk some baseball?

1:27
Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty random.

1:27
Comment From Jar Jar Binks Was Misunderstood
Is it possible for someone to take code from Goldeneye and add in MLB players (unlicensed, I guess), so we could have Stanton, Trout, Tulo, and Kershaw in the Facility with pistols, License to Kill turned on?

1:27
Dan Szymborski: There’s a source-engine Goldeneye mod out there so it’s certainly possible.

1:27
Comment From Phil
How many years away are we from removing “Wins” as any kind of primary metric to judge a SP by, both seasonally and career-wise? Do we need a lot of the current BBWAA to retire? Or better yet, do we know of good headway into current crop being more focused on the more meaningful metrics her and elsewhere? I often wonder of the disconnect between internet nerds and actual sportswriters.

1:27
Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll always be stuck with wins out of tradition, but it will continue to decline in importance of player evaluation.

1:28
Comment From McNutty
Re: The Wire – 3>1>4>2>5

1:28
Comment From Ben
Season 5 of the wire kinda jumped the shark … 4>3>2>1>5, right?

1:28
Comment From Vic Romano
True or False — the Grilled Cheese is the pinnacle of hot sandwich technology.

1:28
Dan Szymborski: False. Mozzarella en carozza

1:28
Comment From 162 Games
Probably the wrong place to ask but is the season too long?

1:28
Dan Szymborski: No. That’s part of the charm.

1:28
Comment From Dave
Do you think the Pirates give qualifying offers to Liriano and Martin?

1:29
Dan Szymborski: I think they give one to Martin but not Liriano.

1:29
Comment From Dave
Jason Parks is all of those things too and he got a job with the Cubs

1:29
Dan Szymborski: But it’s hard to *continue* to be all those things while working.

1:30
Dan Szymborski: A few more and then time to go

1:30
Comment From Tark
Nelson Cruz’s 2014 – fluke or sustainable for at least a couple of years more?

1:31
Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s come off his highest OPS+ – I still think 120s are more likely going forward.

1:31
Dan Szymborski: I think Cruz gets a really bad contract from a team like the Phillies.

1:31
Comment From Mike
What is Mike Olt’s future (2015)?

1:31
Dan Szymborski: Journeyman who pops up as a role player for a couple years.

1:31
Comment From NYHB
Do you play League of Legends?

1:32
Dan Szymborski: Not a fan of LoL or Dota

1:32
Comment From Darth Vader
Don’t forget I thought that my kids were dead and that my step brother was a douche.

1:32
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but wouldn’t you want to see any evidence of this?

1:32
Comment From john
Didn’t palpatine tell vader the children died at the end of episode 3?

1:33
Dan Szymborski: The dude tracked down almost all the Jedi. You think he never looked for what his dumbass family was doing?

1:33
Comment From Guest
Actually episode 3 ruined the tracked down the Jedi narrative and replaced it with storm troopers killed the JEdi

1:33
Dan Szymborski: Well, there were other Jedi that he hunted down in the interim years

1:34
Dan Szymborski: They just killed a lot of them with that order whatever

1:34
Dan Szymborski: I forget the number, so I’ll just call it Order 69 since I’m essentially a 10-year-old.

1:34
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to end this chat for another week.

1:35
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, everybody. As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/22/14 by Dave Cameron!

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toronto1993
Member
toronto1993

WHICH CHAT DO I CHOOSE? TWO AT ONCE IS TOO MUCH TO HANDLE!!

toronto1993
Member
toronto1993

I swear to god there was a Minnix chat on the frontpage, mustve been deleted.