Darick Hall’s Absence Further Weakens a Thin Phillies Lineup

It came as a big blow to the Phillies when Rhys Hoskins, a career 125 wRC+ hitter and the de facto team captain, went down with a season-ending injury. But if there were a silver lining to the circumstances, it was that Darick Hall would get the opportunity to prove himself with a more regular role in the starting lineup. Even Hoskins agreed; the day after he tore his ACL, he told Hall he was genuinely happy for him. The 27-year-old non-prospect forced his way to the majors last summer after hitting 20 home runs in 72 games at Triple-A, then crushed another nine at the big league level, finishing with a .522 slugging percentage and 120 wRC+. This year, he had a shot to show he could keep slugging over a full season. If he could, the Phillies would be much better equipped to handle the loss of Hoskins.

Unfortunately, Hall’s big chance was short-lived. On Wednesday afternoon, the winds began to change and the clouds turned dark. The silver lining became harder to see amid the storm. While trying to stretch a single into a double, Hall landed awkwardly at second base, jamming his right thumb into the side of the bag. He stayed in the game for another inning but eventually came out when he realized something was amiss. A righty-throwing first baseman doesn’t use his right thumb in the field all that often, but five out of five doctors recommend hitting the showers when you tear a ligament.

Indeed, a torn ligament was the official diagnosis, and it will require surgery to fix. The Phillies have yet to offer an official timeline for Hall’s return, but it could be several months before he steps back on the field. Mike Trout needed surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb in 2017 and missed about six weeks. Kevin Kiermaier had a similar procedure the following year and missed nine. Travis d’Arnaud lost more than three months after such a surgery in 2021. Clearly, recovery time depends on the individual player and the extent of the injury; we should hear more about Hall in the coming weeks.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson has already revealed his plan to replace Hall in the lineup. Initially, he was going to give the newly called-up Kody Clemens the bulk of the playing time against right-handed starting pitchers; when a southpaw took the mound, Alec Bohm would slide over to first and Edmundo Sosa would cover third. But Thomson seems to have already changed his mind, deciding that Bohm will move to first base permanently and Sosa will become the everyday third baseman.

While this arrangement is disappointing for Clemens, it makes significantly more sense. Sosa has struggled against same-handed pitching in his career, but Clemens has yet to prove he can hit righties any better. At least with Sosa, the Phillies get a more experienced major leaguer and an elite defensive third baseman:

While it will be Sosa (and occasionally Clemens) replacing Hall in the lineup, the Phillies need their other hitters to rise to the occasion and replace his offensive production. Neither Sosa nor Clemens is a threat at the plate: According to our Depth Charts, both are projected to finish with an 89 wRC+, a substantial drop-off from Hall’s projected 104 wRC+. Thankfully for Philadelphia, the guys who need to step up are off to a pretty good start:

If Stott, Bohm, Marsh, and Castellanos succeed, the Phillies’ offense will be just fine for the next few months; when Hall and Bryce Harper return, the Phils will have one of the deepest lineups in baseball, even without Hoskins. Unfortunately, that’s a pretty huge “if”:

Of these four hitters, only Bohm has a BABIP anywhere close to sustainable. Similarly, he is the only one with an xwOBA above the 25th percentile. Stott is making a ton of contact, but not enough hard contact. His hard-hit rate ranks in the 11th percentile, and he has yet to barrel a ball this season. Most of his hits have been groundballs that found a gap, and he has walked only once in 36 PA. Meanwhile, Castellanos has struck out in 16 of his 37 trips to the plate. He is swinging far less than usual, but his swinging-strike rate is higher than ever, and sliders have continued to cause him grief.

Marsh has seven extra-base hits in 23 PA, which is undeniably impressive. But he’s earned more of those hits with his legs than his bat: His average launch angle and hard-hit rate are down, and his .762 slugging percentage isn’t going to last. On the bright side, he’s chasing less and whiffing less, but that only means so much when his quality of contact is worse. Moreover, he has been dreadful on the bases despite his speed, having already run into multiple TOOTBLANs in just a handful of games played:

The season is young, and there is plenty of time for Stott and Marsh to break out and Castellanos to bounce back, but they have yet to show signs of making the improvements they need to make in order to do so. That means the onus will be on the established hitters to produce from the top of the lineup. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto were all presented with their Silver Slugger trophies this weekend, and the Phillies are counting on them to hit like Silver Sluggers again. They don’t really have a choice (unless Stott, Marsh, and Castellanos step up). The bottom of the order is already a black hole with the platoon of Josh Harrison and Jake Cave and the occasional presence of Cristian Pache. This lineup still has some thump, but it thins out quickly after that.

On that account, Philadelphia needs to get a boost from its pitching staff. Pitching was the team’s strength entering the season, with both the rotation and the bullpen ranking fifth in our Positional Power Rankings. Yet as things stand, the Phillies’ staff is 20th in WAR; the starters are 14th, and the bullpen 26th.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler haven’t quite been themselves, and the Phillies have lost three of their four starts. Those two can make a massive difference by returning to ace form, and Ranger Suárez will help once he gets off the injured list. His return will bolster the bullpen, too, allowing Matt Strahm to transition out of the rotation and into a long relief role. But what the ‘pen needs most is better from Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, and Craig Kimbrel, all of whom have been disastrous thus far.

Losing Hall for several months will make the Phillies a worse baseball team; the offensive drop-off from him to Sosa is steep. That said, Philadelphia’s defense will be stronger with Sosa at third, mitigating the offensive downturn. Moreover, this team was built around pitching, and the pitching staff can still carry it to October.

After losing their long-time first baseman a week before Opening Day and getting off to a terrible start in their first nine games, the Phillies are in a bit of a hole. Their playoff odds have fallen to 37.7%, and our projections now have them finishing fifth in the Wild Card race. They still have 153 games to dig their way out, but without Hall, the challenge is even more daunting, and the margin for error is that much slimmer.