Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/8/17 by Dave Cameron November 8, 2017 12:02 Dave Cameron: The normal “Happy Wednesday” greeting seems inappropriate today, given the loss of Roy Halladay yesterday. 12:03 Dave Cameron: So I’ll just welcome you to our chance at a memorial for one of the best pitchers I’ve ever seen. 12:03 Dave Cameron: We’ll do some normal off-season/awards talk too, but if you want to share your favorite Halladay memory, I’d love to read them. 12:05 stever20: So what pitchers of today remind you the most of Halladay? 12:06 Dave Cameron: There isn’t anyone who embodies everything Halladay had. Kluber is maybe closest, so that’s obviously more dominance by strikeouts. Maybe Jose Quintana, though he’s not nearly as good as Halladay was. 12:07 CT: I never rooted for any of Roy Halladay’s teams during his career, but I’ll never forget watching his NLDS no-hitter in 2010 on a 20″ TV because I had no other option that day, but I didn’t care. Seeing Roy pitch, in that game and otherwise, was special and you knew it when you saw it and would put up with just about anything to see him throw. 12:07 Dave Cameron: I live blogged that game. I went back into the archives yesterday to find the post and the transcript isn’t there because we didn’t copy our Cover It Live data, but I remember that game being just unbelievable to watch with FG readers. 12:08 Anthony: I can remember it like it was yesterday in my dorm common room watching the Phillies – Reds playoff game. It was Doc’s first career postseason start. Watching with a bunch of kids from Philly, the amount of joy and screaming following his no hitter was a memory ill take with me forever 12:08 Matt: As someone who started prospects fairly closely in the late 80s, Halladay and Carpenter really stood out for me in the late 90s, when they were in TOR system. The careers of both guys- Roy in particular- are reminders that progress isn’t linear. Roy took his lumps/beatings before ascending to the level he reached. 12:08 Sterling Malory Chris Archer: The night Roy threw his no hitter, I was out to dinner with family that I rarely see. Got a text saying it’s the 7th inning and Halladay is throwing a no no. I loved watching him so much I didn’t think twice about leaving my family and sprinted the home to watch the ending. 12:08 Seth Moko: No question really, but my favorite thing about Halladay is how he was almost a busted prospect – and came back stronger. I’ll take your response off the air. 12:08 Scherzer’s Blue Eye: As a Nats fan, I think the nicest thing I can say about an opposing player, especially a Phillie was how much I hated seeing him on the mound. It meant we had next to no shot of winning. Dude was an absolute stud. 12:08 Charlie: In an era that so many pitchers are being short changed, Halladay is the only non-active pitcher that I was sure will make the Hall of Fame. 12:09 Sgt. Pepper: I went to two sets of 4 Jays games with my family during the Halladay era and both times we missed Doc’s spot in the rotation. We always used to laugh about it but it really stings now. 12:09 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: My only time seeing Halladay pitch live came in a masterful complete game against the Nationals in 2011. It was a 3-2 final score. I’ve seen a lot of great games at Nationals Park–Strasburg’s debut, Randy Johnson’s 300th win, a [rare] playoff win, a few Zimmerman walk-offs–but that Halladay start was probably the most dominant. What a great pitcher and amazing ambassador for the game. 12:09 Vince: Keuchel doesnt remind you halladay? 12:09 Dave Cameron: Oh, yeah, duh. 12:09 Dave Cameron: He’s the most Halladay-esque pitcher we have today. 12:09 Braves Fan : I can tell you my least favorite memory of Roy Halladay, and that was watching him pitch against the Braves, and just banking that the Braves were going to lose that day. 12:10 Nate: Giants aren’t likely to go after guys who got QOs. Who is a reasonable CF candidate in San Francisco next season? 12:10 Dave Cameron: Maybe Jarrod Dyson? 12:11 Dave Cameron: Or, if they want to go a bit younger, a trade for Billy Hamilton. 12:11 Ed in Iowa: If you were running the Cubs would you make decisions that were going to hurt in the post-2021 future (such as, but not limited to: accepting lots of Stanton’s future contract, signing Darvish but deferring money ala Scherzer) in order to maximize the 2015-2021 window? Or would you just be ordinary, big market team aggressive? 12:12 Dave Cameron: I don’t think they need to take on the risk of a guy like Stanton or Darvish, given their trade chips. I’d probably look to move one of Russell/Baez/Schwarber for the best arm I can get, and who goes depends on the offers. 12:12 BK: The Blue Jays have a stated goal of competing in 2018, but not trading away future assets to do so. Is it possible to accomplish this by trading Donaldson to a team like STL who can offer a package of major league ready talent, sign JD Martinez to replace Donaldson’s bat? Would this allow for a competitive 2018, while improving 2019 odds and beyond? 12:13 Dave Cameron: Maybe, but let’s not kid ourselves; Donaldson is much more valuable than Martinez. For the price, I’d probably rather just throw the $150M or whatever Martinez gets at Donaldson as part of an extension offer. 12:14 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Dave, what are your thoughts on Andruw Jones as a Hall of Fame candidate? On one hand, his JAWS score ranks him the 11th best center fielder of all time. On the other hand, I don’t think there is a single BBWAA-voted member of the Hall with fewer than 2000 hits (for whatever that is worth). If similarly-valued Scott Rolen (10th at 3B via JAWS) is a Hall of Famer as many argue, does Jones get in as well? 12:14 Dave Cameron: I don’t think either get voted in, but both probably get considered by whatever they are calling the Veteran’s Committee in 10 years. 12:15 Matty P: Who is the best free agent non pitcher in your mind? 12:15 Dave Cameron: Darvish, pretty clearly. 12:15 James: What caliber of prospect is needed to get Stanton? Can they expect a top level guy with that contract? 12:15 Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on how much money they pick up. If they don’t want to pay down any of his deal, no, they won’t get a top guy. 12:16 Nelson: Judge, Sanchez and Severino compbined for 18.3 WAR in 2017. What WAR would you expect from them next year? 12:16 Dave Cameron: ~14. 12:16 Anthony: Based on Dombroski’s comments, is it almost a certainty that they go over the luxury tax cap this season? 12:16 Dave Cameron: Yeah. It will be a shocker if they don’t sign one of the top few free agent hitters. 12:17 Anthony: Who would be the better fit for the Red Sox. J.D. Martinez at 6 YR 25MM Per or Carlos Santana 3YR 20 MM Per 12:17 Dave Cameron: Santana, easily. 12:17 Anthony: Does JD Martinez get 6 YRs at 25 MM per 12:17 Dave Cameron: I’ll guess 5 years. 12:17 Dave Cameron: But maybe more like 26-27M per. 12:18 Big Tuna: As a Red Sox fan, a $100+ mil Eric Hosmer contract looks like a train crash coming from a mile away. Are we as likely to do this as rumors thus far have led me to believe? 12:18 Dave Cameron: Maybe, but Dombrowski has always been a power guy on both sides of the ball, and that’s not Hosmer’s game. J.D. Martinez feels much more Dombrowski-ish. 12:18 Michael Scarn: Is there a team with a bleaker future right now than the Orioles? 12:18 Dave Cameron: The Royals. 12:19 Dave Cameron: The Royals are the Orioles after they let Machado and Jones walk for nothing and Dylan Bundy blows out his arm again. 12:20 Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Gold Glove awards continue to be a colossal joke. True or False? 12:21 Dave Cameron: False. They did a good job overall, I think. Guys like Barnhart winning show it’s not just vote-for-the-famous-guys anymore. 12:21 Silly Beane: I enjoyed the offseason movers-and-shakers piece. With the Cardinals aiming for so many moves this winter, and having 40-man roster issues, do you think its possible we see trades starting at the GM meetings next week? 12:21 Dave Cameron: Yep. My guess is STL is going to resolve the Stanton situation quickly so they can move on to other options if that’s not happening. I wouldn’t be shocked if a Stanton to STL trade happened next week, or if we heard that they decided it wasn’t a fit. 12:22 otis: As a Phillies fan who got hooked on baseball as a child during their streak of 5 straight division titles from 2007-2011, Halladay will always have a place in my mind as one of the more memorable players from my childhood. I was 12 years old in 2011, playing travel ball in the Philly area, and nearly every single kid on my team attempted to mimic his windup and mannerisms on the mound. If I had to use one word to describe Roy Halladay on a baseball field, it would be mechanical. At times he seemed flawless, like a perfectly designed robot. I don’t think I ever fully appreciated how great he was on the hill. An absolute joy to watch. 12:23 Stanton: Any chance that, rather than paying salary, the Marlins could simply take back an expensive but less onerous contract as part of a Stanton trade? 12:23 Dave Cameron: Sure. 12:23 Dave Cameron: Though my guess is they’d rather pick up some of the cash after the opt-out, so that if he does end up using it, they don’t have to pay anything. 12:23 HugoZ: What do you think of the concept of trading Inciarte because Acuna’s talent would be “wasted” in RF? Isn’t that kind of move premature? 12:24 Dave Cameron: That’s silly. Lots of teams playing multiple CFs and doing just fine. 12:24 Dave Cameron: Range matters in the corners too. 12:25 Smirk: What’s the longest contract you’d give Moustakas? His defense and peripherals all seem to be trending the wrong way as he approaches 30 12:25 Dave Cameron: Probably 4 years. 12:25 Dave Cameron: He’s fine for the next few years, but he’s not so good that he’s going to be playable once he starts losing skills. 12:25 JM: Is Stanton worth the risk for the Dodgers considering how difficult it currently is to upgrade their roster? Can also send back a couple of unwanted contracts(Agon/Kazmir) instead of Miami just eating Stanton money 12:26 Dave Cameron: With Bellinger, Taylor, Puig, Verdugo, and Toles around, I don’t really see OF as an area where LA needs to take a big risk. 12:27 S: Nolan Arenado – Future HoFer? 12:27 Dave Cameron: Depends on what he does after leaving Coors. Voters have held the park against Larry Walker despite a deserving resume. 12:27 Micheal Klump : Is there a chance the Brewers could put together a package for Stanton? Say Domingo Santana, Corey Ray, and Brandon Woodruff… 12:28 Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t give up those guys for Stanton unless MIA is eating a lot of money. 12:28 Zock Jr.: Do you have an opinion on the Royals refusing the Braves permission to interview Moore? Yes, they’re denying him an opportunity for a better job. But also, he did admittedly sign a contract. Petty? Defensible? Both? 12:29 Dave Cameron: At the executive level, I don’t think you owe it to the guys to let them go. It’s one thing to hold a lower level guy from getting a raise that could significantly alter his financial status, or give him a great chance to climb the ladder. But once you’re at Dayton’s job, I think it’s fine to say “we signed you, we want to keep you” 12:30 Eduardo : What would a Betances for Schwarber trade look like? 12:30 Dave Cameron: Like something the Cubs wouldn’t do. 12:30 Lunar verLander: The Astros don’t seem like they need to do TOO much this offseason, but a RP who can get LHHs out would be nice. Do you think they’re more likely to sign Wade Davis, Greg Holland (who both had good numbers against LHH, despite both being RHP), or neither? 12:31 Dave Cameron: I could see them going after Morrow and an LH setup guy instead. 12:31 groucho: How much money would the marlins need to eat on Stanton’s contract to get Alex Reyes? 12:31 Dave Cameron: More than they’ll want to. 12:31 KK: As a lifelong Jays fan, Halladay has been my role model for many, many years. My most precious memory will always be going to Toronto for the 3 game series when he first came back to the city. 130,000 people at those 3 games. Doc pitched the middle game, so no autograph signing on day 1. No signing on day 2 – there was still work to do. On day 3 he signed probably a dozen or so shirts, balls, hats, programs. I had a copy of The Mental ABC’s of Pitching, the book that helped him turn things around in High A. Doc initially scanned down the line of things to be signed, stopped, scanned back to my book. Looked up at me, down at the book, back at me, back at the book, and signed the front cover. That book is in a display case in my room and is one of my most cherished possessions 12:32 Dave: Which “failed” starter is most likely to become the next dominant, multi-inning reliever? Is he a free agent? 12:32 Dave Cameron: I still want to see Tyler Glasnow pitching one inning at a time. 12:32 OC: I’m very puzzled why the Indians are converting Francisco mejia into a 3rd baseman. Why not trade him for a top 3b prospect/younger player instead? Thinking devers, or somebody similar 12:32 Dave Cameron: Because the Red Sox aren’t trading Devers. 12:33 Brian: Whats more likely – you are surprised by how much a team gave up to acquire Stanton or the average fan is surprised by how little a team gave up to acquire Stanton? 12:33 Dave Cameron: The latter. 12:33 Ray : You forget about Joc in LA outfield already? 12:33 Dave Cameron: I figure he’s getting moved this winter. 12:33 Anon: Stanton to the Yankees for Gardner and Frasier. Is there any chance of something like that happening? 12:35 Dave Cameron: NYY isn’t going to block off path to signing Harper. 12:35 Stanton: What’s my straight up trade value if no cash considerations are involved? A couple of top 50-100 prospects? 12:35 Dave Cameron: Probably not even that. Maybe one back end top 100 guy and some filler. 12:36 Silly Beane: What should the Rays demand of the Cubs in exchange for Archer? 12:36 Dave Cameron: Russell+ 12:36 Will: How can the braves trade kemp or markakis? At some point, isnt the value gained from Acuna worth the 11M it would take to buy out Markakis’ contract? 12:37 Dave Cameron: I’d guess Kemp is just given away to an AL team, not too differently from how ATL got Phillips. 12:37 Dave Cameron: The Royals would probably take Kemp if he were free. 12:37 Dooduh: The Royals future doesn’t have to be bleak. They are clearing like $50M+ in payroll. They will prob add 2 or 3 FAs like LoMo, Cobb and Nunez 12:38 Dave Cameron: That will push them all the way up to… 75 wins? 12:39 Zock Jr.: Is Jeter going to be the one really calling the shots in Miami’s front office? Is he the effective GM, basically? 12:39 Dave Cameron: Seems that way, yes. 12:39 Matt: If the Cubs find themselves no longer with the defensive services of Baez or Russell + 140 games of Schwarber in LF, are they no longer a *great* defensive club? Almora in CF more frequently should help , on plus side of the ledger. 12:39 Dave Cameron: They already aren’t a great defensive club. 12:40 Silly Beane: Chicago media is abuzz with rumors of Heyward to SFG for Melancon and Shark. Sounds like SFG would be getting hosed there, no? 12:40 Dave Cameron: Yeah, no way SFG does that. 12:40 Dave Cameron: At least, not rationally. 12:40 Bruce: What happens to Didi when Gleybar is ready? 12:40 Dave Cameron: Gleybar goes to 2nd or 3rd. 12:41 LegallyEagle: Safe to assume the Dodgers are going to try to get under the tax this year, or will they consider footing bill still if it meant acquiring a specific player – let’s say Stanton. 12:41 Dave Cameron: They’re so far over I don’t think they can get under this year. 12:41 Dave Cameron: And then they’ll be players on Harper next year, probably. 12:41 Dave Cameron: So I don’t see them going under any time soon. 12:42 Grover: With most if not all teams now having progressive, analytical front offices, how in the world are guys like Hosmer or Moustakas still going to get massive contracts this offseason? 12:42 Dave Cameron: Because they’re above-average MLB players and guys like that have value. 12:42 Dave Cameron: They won’t get the ridiculous contracts that some people expect, but they’re worth everyday player money, and these days, that’s $20M per year. 12:43 Babe Lincoln: Judge being a finalist for GG was pretty bad, though, right? 12:43 Dave Cameron: No. He’s really good out there. 12:44 Grover: Is it fair to say that any team that can’t come up with some internal option to give you, say, 75% of Eric Hosmer’s production at a fraction of the cost probably isn’t in a position organizationally to be blowing $100+ million on free agents? 12:44 Dave Cameron: Not necessarily. If Hosmer gets 5/110 or something, it’s not a bad contract. 12:44 Dave Cameron: It’s the 7/150 that should scare you. 12:45 Babe Lincoln: Chances Schwarber (mostly) washes out before reaching FA? Feels like Chris Carter 2.0 to me. 12:45 Dave Cameron: Nah, he’s better than that. 12:45 Kershaw: If I retired tomorrow, would my 2000 IP to date qualify me for HOF consideration? 12:45 Dave Cameron: Yes. 12:46 Dennis: Do you think Cozart will ultimately sign to be somebody’s shortstop or some other infield position like second or third? 12:46 Dave Cameron: He’ll get an SS job. 12:46 Elton: Is any team bubbling in the back of your mind as a surprise team (in a good way) for 2018? 12:47 Dave Cameron: I think the A’s could actually be kind of interesting next year. Full years from Chapman and Olson, maybe a step forward from some of the young arms. 12:47 : Who will be the Padres starting SS next season? 12:47 Dave Cameron: Luis Urias. 12:47 Nathan E: Given his lack of track record offensively, what do you think Cozart gets? 12:48 Dave Cameron: 2/$24M, maybe with some kind of vesting option for a third year. 12:48 Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Team likely to take a step back next year. Don’t say Nats. Don’t do it. 12:49 Dave Cameron: Maybe the Brewers? Steamer *hates* their roster, and they won’t have Nelson for a good chunk of the year. 12:49 Guest: I was at a game Roy Halladay pitched at Coors Field some years ago when his Colorado family occupied the two rows immediately in front of mine. Every time he got a two strike count on the batter, a young boy, perhaps seven, stood on his seat and called out as loudly as his squeaky voice allowed, “Strike him out, Uncle Roy!” 12:50 Matt: Who are some interesting young, cost-controlled SPs that you can see realistically being moved this offseason? Doesn’t seem like a ton of guys out there. 12:50 Dave Cameron: Archer probably the big fish, if someone can blow TB away. Maybe Wacha or Salazar if you want to take some injury risk? 12:51 Stanton: What are the odds I actually opt out in 2020? I’ll be over 30 by then, and I’m not a model of durability. My contract will still be ~7/210 starting in 2021 anyhow. 12:52 Dave Cameron: 7/210 won’t look that intimidating after you see what Harper/Machado/Kershaw get. 12:52 Dave Cameron: But it probably depends on health. If you have another knee problem, then the opt-out becomes less likely. 12:53 Soup Club: Theo offers Schwarber to Indians for Salazar. Indians ask for Baez instead. Theo says ______? 12:53 Dave Cameron: Nah. Too much injury risk. 12:54 Little Poison: Who should the Cardinals deal from their outfield surplus? Are the Marlins going to send them Stanton for a package headlined by two of their top three prospects? Do they Cardinals want that deal? 12:55 Dave Cameron: My guess is STL wants to do something like Grichuk/Alcantara with MIA picking up a big chunk of the long-term salary. 12:55 Dave Cameron: But that’s just a wild guess. 12:56 jj: Has anyone else reported that audio from ads keeps popping up when I open a page and sometimes it is hard/impossible to find the ad causing the noise so I can turn it off. Using Chrome. 12:56 Dave Cameron: If you can identify which ad is playing the sound, that would be very helpful. 12:56 Dave Cameron: We hate that stuff as much as you do. 12:56 Veldream: I’m a Phillies fan who was away at college watching Halladay throw his NLDS no-hitter in 2010. My clapping & screaming was so intense that my neighbors called the RA on me. The RA was a baseball fan & basically told my neighbors “please, this is history” & we both watched the rest of the way, being as loud as possible. 12:56 Rich: As a Blue Jays fan, Halladay’s death breaks my heart. It is a shame that the Jays could never put together a contender when he was there. I think this made him constantly underrated to the general population. Glad he had the short run in Philadelphia where he got the recognition he deserved. 12:57 Nathan E: You said earlier you don’t see the Dodgers getting under the luxury tax soon. Think it’s possible they go more after Machado who may be cheaper than Harper to try to stay under? 107Mil committed as of now, bbref projects around 50 Mil in arb costs, threshold is 205 Mil. Maybe it depends on if Kershaw opts out as people seem to expect? 12:57 Dave Cameron: Turner/Seager aren’t going anywhere. 12:57 Dave Cameron: So no real spot for him. 12:57 Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Halladay should be a 1st ballot HoFer. 12:57 Dave Cameron: Agreed. 12:58 Josh R: I have come here from the year 2037. Just wanted to tell you that Dinelson Lamet is widely considered the greatest pitcher of the last 50 years. 12:59 Dave Cameron: At this point in Lamet’s career, Kershaw already had like 6 Cy Youngs. 12:59 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Roy Halladay had four seasons with 200K and 35 or fewer walks. No one else has ever done it three times. 12:59 Matt: To what do you attribute the Cubs decline from an excellent defensive team in ’16 to whatever they are now? 1:00 Dave Cameron: More Schwarber, regression. 1:00 Grover: Regarding Machado, could the Dodgers move Turner to 1B for the last 2 years of his contract and move Bellinger to the OF to make room at third? 1:00 Dave Cameron: They could, but signing Harper would just be easier. 1:00 Slick: When you retire as editor of this site, are you going to return to being a committed Mariners fan? 1:01 Dave Cameron: Probably depends on my kid. If Drew gets really into baseball, and we stay in Oregon, the Mariners are probably his team, and having that to share with him could bring it back for sure. 1:02 Tim: Do you think that Halladay is going to be the pitcher that moves the Hall to reconsider what a modern Hall of Famer looks like (low win total, but absolute dominance in peak years)? Pedro has some of this, although I think he is such an outlier. 1:02 Dave Cameron: I hope so. 1:02 LegallyEagle: I think Halladay was really good, but 1st ballot? Was he THAT good for THAT honor, given how many people are also still waiting to get in due to crowded ballots? I feel like this may be a feeling-of-the-moment to say “1st Ballot”… 1:02 Dave Cameron: His 10 year run is up there with almost any pitcher in baseball history. 1:02 Dave Cameron: I don’t need him to be meh for another 5 years to put up the counting stats to acknowledge his greatness. 1:03 Dookie Howser, MD: Is that Heyward-Samardja-Melacon trade crazy? 1:03 Dave Cameron: Yes. 1:03 Dave Cameron: Samardzija has positive trade value, and no way is Melancon as negative as Heyward. 1:04 Mr. Woods: Hypothetical trade that has zero chance, but will you indulge me? Grandal and Verdugo for Victor Robles. 1:04 Dave Cameron: Interesting, but I bet both teams say no. 1:05 Grandal: Which teams could really use me right? And which of those teams could actually afford me? 1:05 Dave Cameron: Phillies could be a fit. Kapler knows him, will value framing, could see him as a way to help young arms develop. 1:06 Dave Cameron: Alright, have some phone calls to make. Thanks for hanging out everyone, and thanks for the Roy Halladay memories.