Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/16

Dave Cameron: Okay, the queue is pretty full, so let’s get this thing going.

Alex: Don’t the Braves feel like a natural fit for Corey Dickerson? Tons of pitching prospect in the Atlanta system, and the Braves are desperate for young, controllable hitters.

Dave Cameron: Dickerson doesn’t strike me as their kind of player, honestly. I’d imagine if they’re going to give up arms, they’d rather do it for a guy with more upside.

Tripping Olney: Did you read Buster Olney’s article, where he basically said that your article on teams tanking is way off base, and everyone within the industry thinks it’s a serious problem?

Dave Cameron: I did not. I did read the numerous messages I got from people within the industry thanking me for the piece I wrote on Monday, though, so I’m pretty sure not everyone in the industry thinks its a serious problem.

Bubba: Mets or Nats? Do you think it’ll be a close race?

Dave Cameron: It’s a coin flip at this point, and probably comes down to pitcher health.

Ulysses: Fowler or Jackson a better fit for the White Sox?

Dave Cameron: Fowler’s better, but the draft pick and the expected price difference probably makes Jackson a better deal, especially since they need more than one more player. SS/SP also need attention.

Guest: What do you think about Doug Fister to the Astros? He fits the bill perfectly of guys who know how to pitch but dont throw it hard. Brett Strom has worked miracles with McHugh/Keuchel the last 2 years, and if he sucks Feldman is a fine number 5 guy. Seems like a no lose situation for the Stros to me

Dave Cameron: Agreed, but the huge velo loss and DL trip probably mean that the medicals are going to be the key issue for any signing team, and we don’t know what those look like.

groucho: What MLB team do you think would be the most likely to relocate going forward?

Dave Cameron: It would have to be the A’s, right?

Travis: How much merit do you put into the idea that players “will see better pitches” based on who is hitting around them in the lineup and therefore will be expected to have better production? It seems we hear this a lot (but not exclusively) about #2 hitters. I’m particularly talking about Justin Upton moving to the Tigers lineup where speculation is that he will hit #2 ahead of Cabrera. Do the stats back this up in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Protection is a myth, and the whole premise fails once you think about it logically. If pitching a #2 hitter because you’re scared of the #3 hitter allows the #2 hitter to get on base more often, then it’s having the exact opposite impact of the supposed plan, and pitchers would stop doing it.

Paul: What do you think of Yasiel Puig?

Dave Cameron: My guess is he’s peaked.

Mike_C: There are rumors that the Braves already have a handshake agreement in place with International Free Agent Kevin Maitan, which is a violation of the rules. Why isn’t the MLB investigating this?

Dave Cameron: Every team has agreements in place well before July 2nd. Do you think those deals that are announced within a few hours of the calendar flipping to July 2 are negotiated from scratch that day?

Mike_C: There appears to be more support for the National League adopting the DH every year. Which season do you see it finally happening?

Dave Cameron: I bet it gets phased in during the next CBA negotiations. So maybe 2019 or something.

Matt: Hey Dave, what are the types of moves the Braves should try to complete to finish off the rebuild? Something like Teheran for Benintendi, Brian Johnson, and Vazquez?

Dave Cameron: Well, sure, if they could trade a mediocre pitcher for an insane package of talent in return, they should do that. But the Red Sox would have to mix heroin and cocaine with some pop rocks and dr pepper in order to agree to that.

Jake McGee: Is Corey Dickerson actually good, or a product of Coors? He has a career 165 wRC+ at home, and 89 on the road.

Dave Cameron: There’s plenty of evidence that playing at Coors messes up your road performance. You shouldn’t judge COL hitters by their road stats.

Mike_C: Jason Heyward opts out of his deal following the 2018 season. The Braves looking to make a push for the 2019 NL East crown and flush with new stadium money, bring Heyward back home with an 8 year deal. How much of a fantasy land am I living in right now?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see the Braves ever acquiring Heyward again.

Drew: Is the park adjustment for wRC+/ERA-/FIP- only for the home stadium? A la if one pitcher pitches in Coors and another from the same rotation doesn’t, they’ll still have the same park factor applied?

Dave Cameron: Correct.

The Boat: Do the Pirates need another starter? If so (and it seems that they do), why did they ditch Morton for salary relief? Will the $8 million he was owed buy something better than the back-end starter that Morton was?

Dave Cameron: They feel like the obvious landing spot for Latos, right?

Dale: 400M for Harper is quite insane. I wouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket.

Dave Cameron: It’s insanely low. He’s worth a lot more than that.

Bork: With the weak FA class next year, if Strasburg maintains status quo, what kind of contract do you think he’ll be looking at?

Dave Cameron: 8/$200M, something like that.

Marc: How do you feel about the prediction that Niese will have a better 2016 than Happ?

Dave Cameron: I could see that. Niese has been underrated for a while now.

The Dude of NY: Why are so many people acting as if it’s a forgone conclusion that Cespedes opts-out of his contract (assuming he stays healthy)? If he has the 2.6 WAR season Steamer projects him to have, he’d be crazy to opt out of his deal, right?

Dave Cameron: He’d be walking away from 2/$50M, so even with a mediocre year, he could probably get a larger total guarantee on a longer deal if he was willing to take a lower AAV.

Jay: Thoughts on if there is actually anything going to happen between the Cubs and Rays? Constant talk about a match of hitting for pitching. Cubs could use Odorizzi.

Dave Cameron: I would think McGee or Boxberger actually make more sense for CHC.

Cubsfan: Can Jason Heyward cut it in center? His defensive value seems like it takes a huge hit with the move especially basically having to cover all of left field

Dave Cameron: He’ll probably be okay there. I’m not as worried about Heyward in CF as I am what their OF will look like if he gets hurt. They have no depth.

CamdenWarehouse: Re: Puig’s peak – that is an awfully early peak. Do you think there is an age misrepresentation going on?

Dave Cameron: No, that has been heavily reduced in recent years thanks to changes in governmental oversight.

Donny Baseball: Safer bet to have a better season, Cueto, JZimmerman, both health and stat wise?

Dave Cameron: Cueto

Jim: Could (and if so, should) the Mariners turn Paxton into Charlie Blackmon?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Blackmon would be a big upgrade over what they have in the OF, and they don’t have enough high level pitching depth to spare, so no.

Justin: Who has the best season – Grichuk, Piscotty or Tommy Pham?

Dave Cameron: Piscotty.

The Dude of NY: You referred to Teheran as a mediocre pitcher. Does that mean you think his league average production from 2013-2014 was a fluke, or would you consider that mediocre?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, mediocre was just another way of saying average. He’s fine, perfectly useful, but not any kind of high-value asset.

Tom: Do you think the Phillies will make any big moves next offseason, like Strasburg?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the elite FAs will be signing up to play for a team coming off a 100 loss season, no.

popoppopopppop: Re: Coors messing up road performance — is it because players who play half their games there learn to sell out contact for power, or is there more to it?

Dave Cameron: We don’t know for sure, but I’d bet that it’s doing to pitches moving differently at altitude.

Matt: May I offer a counterpoint? I’m not really sure why you profile Teheran as mediocre. He had a poor year last year, sure, but was on a strong upward trend before that. Given his age, contract and profile as a 3-4 WAR player, I think his value is still pretty high. Benintendi, a #4 starter, and an extraneous catcher who missed last year to injury seems pretty fair to me.

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t profile as a 3-4 WAR player. Career FIP- of 106, xFIP- of 104. His low ERAs in ’13/’14 were based on unsustainably high strand rates. Even if we give him some credit for hit prevention, he’s a slightly above average starter, and that’s before factoring in that his stuff is declining in quality. Pitcher aging is a hill, not a curve.

Curtis: is the more accurate value of a “closer” the ability to get both hands out as opposed to saves?

Dave Cameron: Yep. There is some truth to the idea that some guys are better used in earlier innings because of their platoon splits. The great setup guys who can’t close are mostly guys who suck against opposite handed hitters.

Bork: How bad is the Mets OF defense going to be?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess a little below average. Their IF defense will be among the worst in the league, though.

NotCubsFan: Do you see the Cubs playing Schwarber predominantly at catcher or do you think the lack of OF depth means they play him 40% or more in LF?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet he gets 80% of his ABs in the OF, 10% at C, 10% at DH when they play in the AL.

Josh: Re Cubs OF defense: I think Heyward will be okay, as you say, but it seems they are below avg at the corners and having an okay CF won’t make up for the rest. Schwarber is not great out there and having an above avg CF would help cover that

Dave Cameron: I think it’s mostly a myth that a good CF can make up much for bad corner OFs. For the most part, balls are hit to a place where only one player has a shot to catch it.

The Dude of NY: Are you in favor of the NL adopting the DH?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Jon: Cubs have no outfielder depth? Thats the first time I’ve hear anyone say that. Do you mean defensively, because Bryant Zobrist Coghlan Baez(?) seems like a lot of depth.

Dave Cameron: You’re not playing any of the first three in CF, and Baez has only played CF in winter ball, so he’s not something they should be counting on.

Max: How much will Chapman get as a FA next year? Too much of a risk to give a long term deal, right? Somewhere in the 5/$120 range or is that too high for a closer?

Dave Cameron: Too high, especially with his off field issues.

Jojo: What’s team expected to be in playoff contention next year do you think is most likely to absolutely bottom out and lose 95+ games

Dave Cameron: Marlins, probably.

Doug: If he can hit enough to stay in the lineup does JBJ win a gold glove in 2016?

Dave Cameron: Well Kiermeir and Pillar didn’t die over the winter, so I wouldn’t count those chickens yet.

NatsFan: Have you seen Daren Willman’s outfield defense graphics posted on Twitter?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Having BAM hire him will probably turn out to be one of the best things that happened to the public in a while.

Drayton Moore: Are you happier with the Ian Kennedy deal after seeing how backloaded it is?

Dave Cameron: No, it’s still terrible.

Pale Hose: re: Teheran Dave, I think you are a little low on him. At 5/41 and league average production, he probably has 40ish million of surplus value. That should return a top prospect.

Dave Cameron: Top prospects are worth more than $40 million.

Ross: Is there a realistic scenario in which the Mariners win the West? If yes what would that be?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Cano bounces back, Felix has another Cy Young season, the depth guys are all decent, and no other AL West team wins 90+.

mtsw: From a fan’s perspective, 8-man lineups produce a more entertaining contest than 9-man lineups with a DH. Change my view.

Dave Cameron: I actually agree with you. I’ve heard the proposal for just eliminating the pitcher hitting/DH position a few times and always liked it.

The Dude of NY: Are you a member of the BBWAA?

Dave Cameron: Yes

Joe: Enough cubs questions! Answer one about the lowly, small-market, Brewers!

Dave Cameron: They really should trade Lucroy.

ben: kipnis ever going to have a full season of peak performance?

Dave Cameron: Didn’t he just do that?

Sam: do you think the Yanks are still trying to trade Gardner for a SP, if they ever were earlier this offseason?

Dave Cameron: No, I think they realized the market wasn’t going to give them what they want for him.

Glossy Finknottle: So wait: is mixing heroin, coke, pop rocks, and dr. pepper a thing in North Carolina?

Dave Cameron: Actually, it’s Cheerwine here.

Won I: How would they phase in the DH?

Dave Cameron: Maybe have it be the rule for all interleague games regardless of park in 2018, then have it for all games in 2019. Something like that.

Bork: Will Gallardo’s contract be just as terrible, not as terrible, or beyond terrible when compared to Kennedy’s?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’s getting 5/$70M, so not as terrible.

Billy Corman: An 8-man lineup kills the double-switch, right? I’d prefer status quo at this point.

Dave Cameron: Why do people think the double switch is so cool?

mtsw: Followup on 8 man lineups: is it a non-starter in the real world? DH seems like an affirmative action program for veteran players so MLBPA would hate it and purists would be bothered by how extra PAs for the other 8 guys would let records be broken more easily.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the PA probably is more interested in creating more jobs for aging veterans who can’t field, not getting rid of the 15 that already exist.

Alex: I think the double switch is cool, because it is good to see how an entire team can be utilized. It is great to see a 25 man roster used to beat another 25 man roster, rather than having spare pieces just sit around.

Dave Cameron: So why is the double switch more about utilizing the whole team rather than just putting two players in as late-game replacements at different times? What’s the fascination with doing it in one move?

anon: Dodgers have like 9 ex GMs in their FO, too many cooks/recipe for disaster?

Dave Cameron: It’s not like they have 9 guys trying to make trades. The roles are clearly defined and the power structure is in place.

Sean : What do the Diamondbacks need to be a true top contender? What is their biggest area of need?

Dave Cameron: 2B/RF/RP

Jake McGee: Do you think 26 man rosters will be coming in the next CBA?

Dave Cameron: No, but I could see a taxi-squad kind of thing, where teams were allowed to switch out “active players” before each series.

CamdenWarehouse: The double switch is cool because no one wants to see the pitcher hit and it usually means moving the pitcher’s spot further down.

Dave Cameron: There is another way to not see the pitcher hit…

Ben Lindbergh: Theory as to why playing at Coors messes up road performance? Are Rockies hitters altering their swings to go for more fly balls?

Dave Cameron: Let’s be honest; if you were really Ben Lindbergh, you’d have interviewed six former players, two former GMs, and put together an exhaustive 4,000 word article explaining exactly how this all works. So I call shenanigans.

Dave: How much would a team need to be spending in payroll right now to be outpacing the league by the same factor as the Yankees were at their spending zenith?

Dave Cameron: ~$375M, something like that.

Joe: Why are the Diamondbacks so reluctant to give up a second round draft pick for Howie Kendrick? It seems to be among the best fits for any of the remaining free agents, and it’s not like the Diamondbacks seem to value their draft picks/minor leaguers.

Dave Cameron: I have no idea.

Julio Pepper: Do you think the increased price on pitching has anything to do with the filter of the one game WG, and the disproportionate value of aces/relievers in single games?

Dave Cameron: How does any of that explain $70 million for Ian Kennedy?

anon: You’ve talked about why dodgers are still strong, what are some their weaknesses?

Dave Cameron: Health. They’ve made a lot of bets on guys who you can’t really count on for full seasons.

Dave: Its not like anyone wants to see any but a handful of catchers hit either – why are we stopping at just the pitchers getting substituted in the lineup?

Dave Cameron: Catchers had a 97 wRC+ as a group last year, I believe.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.