Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/24/16

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. I was only expecting to chat for 60 minutes or so, but Jose Bautista thinks 150 is more reasonable.

Dave Cameron: So we’ll see how long we go!

mtsw: [Orioles physical joke]

Dave Cameron: I wonder exactly what they think this all accomplishes? What’s the point of being known as the organization who will back out of deals?

Eddy: Should the Rangers opt to start Gallo in LF to open the season? Feel like they have viable in house options instead of signing a FA.

Dave Cameron: It seems like he should at least get a look, given that he’s blocked by Beltre at third. But if they are serious about contending, they can’t have their plan be Gallo with no backup.

Eddy: How insane is Jose Bautista?

Dave Cameron: He either doesn’t want to stay in Toronto or he’s getting bad information from his representatives.

Dave Cameron: Or maybe both.

mtsw: Given what they just gave up for Dexter Fowler, and the gaping hole in the OF last season, did the Orioles actually make a mistake in retrospect by passing on re-signing Markakis (assuming they could’ve gotten him for like 4/44?)

Dave Cameron: No, Fowler is better than Markakis.

The Average Sports Fan: It seems like the Brewers are doing an excellent job retooling, and though late to start, so are the the Phillies. What in the world are the Reds doing? Since the Cueto trade, it has only been disappointing returns.

Dave Cameron: I don’t understand their rebuild at all, really. And this push to give Bruce away now, after the winter is basically over and there’s no way to reallocate his money, is weird. It’s one thing to do a salary dump in order to free up cash to spend on players you think might have a future with your club, but at this point, the Reds should be eating Bruce’s money in order to get better prospects in return.

The Hamburglar: Just moved to Charlotte and looking to plan a weekend trip to Asheville, any recommendations? Or NC recommendations in general?

Dave Cameron: Favorite restaurant in Asheville is Curate, though it’s hard to go wrong with a lot of different options. Highly recommend taking a trip out to Bryson City to go whitewater rafting (or use one of their personal canoe things, which is what we did instead) at the NOC. The Outer Banks are pretty amazing, and well worth the long drive for a beach vacation.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Would Fowler to Orioles at 3/$33M rank among your top 10 moves of the offseason? He’s a very good fit for them at a reasonable cost.

Dave Cameron: No, because if they don’t sign Gallardo, the actual cost is probably around $50M, considering the 14th pick surrendered to sign him. 3/$50M for Fowler isn’t much of a bargain.

Timmy from MA: Over or under on Puig’s Steamer projection?

Dave Cameron: Under

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: About the Blue Jays / Bruce non-trade – what exactly do (did?) the Jays see in him? Is it just “YEAH DINGERS”?

Dave Cameron: They’ve had pretty good luck as an organization turning one-dimensional pull-power guys into good players.

Big Joe Mufferant: Is Bautista actually hurting his (almost assured) pending Free Agency with his comments? He sounds like a me first, team second kind of guy and knocked a bunch of smaller market teams off with his absurd demands.

Dave Cameron: Small market teams were never going to be in the mix for an aging guy looking for his kind of salary anyway. I don’t think teams care about what he says publicly about his contract desires now, and they’ll evaluate him based on what he asks for next winter. But if he sticks to his $150M demand, he’ll never play again.

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that Chris Davis just got the equivalent of $148M (after accounting for deferred money) for his age 30-36 seasons. Bautista is asking for more for his age 36-40 seasons. It’s lunacy.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: I get that the Brewers have little incentive to rush Arcia up to the majors during a year when they’ll most likely suck. But, consider the following hypothetical: Arcia tears it up during spring training this year, the Brewers (expectedly) send him to Colorado Springs, and he continues to dominate, even after adjusting for park/league factor. In Milwaukee, the SS position is pure garbage. At what point, during this hypothetical, do the Brewers most likely call him up, and at what point would an accusation of gaming Arcia’s service time clock start to hold water?

Dave Cameron: What’s the point in flushing a year of team control down the drain just to get him to the majors in April? If he’s crushing it in the first few weeks, they’ll call him up in May. If he’s just doing okay, they’ll wait until mid-June, when Super Two has passed.

Zorak: In light of the recent news about Lazarito and his Buscones, how do you think MLB should reform the Latin American market? Ignoring for a moment that MLB usually chooses the wrong route, what would be the Dave Cameron solution to ensuring the safety and fair compensation of Latin prospects?

Dave Cameron: It’s not as simple as MLB just changing some rules. There’s governmental issues, political and cultural norms, and lots of people getting rich off these kids who aren’t just going to go away quietly. It’s going to take a concerted effort to change the way baseball players are developed in other countries.

cjbrassa: Your thoughts on Tim Anderson?

Dave Cameron: Not a huge fan. Seems like a guy who might be a decent player if he figures out how to make contact, but has a very high bust rate.

Lee: Given the recent speculation about Bryce Harper’s free agency in a few years, have you heard anything from any league execs or agents that would suggest an early favorite?

Dave Cameron: Everyone figures it will be the Yankees and Dodgers in the bidding war to end all bidding wars.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Over/under probability on Lucroy being the opening day C for a team other than the Brewers – 0.5?

Dave Cameron: I’d say over. Tough to trade a catcher mid-season, so incentive for MIL to move him before season starts.

chacochicken: Are hitters swinging too much? It seems several of the best hitters swing the least.

Dave Cameron: You have causation backwards; the best hitters swing the least because pitchers don’t throw them strikes, because they’re good hitters.

Wes: Which sub .500 team from last year has the best chance to get a wild card spot?

Dave Cameron: Boston.

aj: As a White Sox fan , why am worried that this years moves could end up as bad as last year ?

Dave Cameron: The cost of the moves made this winter was much lower. The team still might not win, but at least you didn’t really give anything up in trying this time.

Keith: If you were GM for the Astros, what would you have tried to do differently over the offseason? Sign a free agent for 1B or 3B? Or trade for a 1B or 3B? Try to overpay for Chris Davis? Something else? Just wondering.

Dave Cameron: Given the price he eventually went for, I probably would have tried to get in on Todd Frazier. Move Valbuena into a UT role which included a good amount of 1B time in case Singleton/Reed aren’t any good, improves line-up while keeping flexibility.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Another question about Jay Bruce – should the Reds consider themselves lucky to get anything of value for him right now? Should they maybe hold on to him going into the season and hope he regains some of the value from earlier in his career, then revisit a trade later on? If the only trade returns he’s attracting are already injured players, that can’t be saying much for him.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, giving him away at this point is silly. Either pay down the contract and get a real prospect in return, or keep him and hope he builds his value.

TF Fredrik: With regards to top prospects, what do you think a reasonable expectation is of them? I know everyone thinks a player ranked in the top ten of top 100 prospects list is destined to be a superstar, but the odds of that are way lower than people think. I would think the front office looks at it as a success if a top prospect turns out average to above average WAR seasons for multiple years and fans are disappointed in anything less than multiple 6+ WAR seasons. Like if Byron Buxton’s WAR then next 5 years (assuming regular playing time) were: 1.3, 2.6, 3.6, 3, 2.4. How many people would take that right now?

Dave Cameron: I agree that people get too optimistic about the rate at which prospects succeed, but I actually think prospects as a group are still undervalued publicly, because the value when they do succeed is enormous. The fact that they bust so often doesn’t mean you should trade them away for veterans.

Ol Sea Capn : Why haven’t we heard more rumors of Colorado signing desmond to a pillow contract with the intention of trading mid season? Seems at least worth talking about if your CO but no rumblings. Is this just Colorado being Colorado or a matter or us not hearing everything?

Dave Cameron: Rosenthal wrote about the idea last week. My guess would be COL wants to see how much money they’ll save on Reyes’ suspension before they commit.

Natitude Adjuster: What are the odds Harper has more WAR in 2016 than Trout?

Dave Cameron: 30%? Something like that.

mtsw: Compare Donald Trump to some baseball thing

Dave Cameron: He’s like that Phillies commenter screaming about John Middleton.

Joey in China: If you had to give it a percentage, what are the chances Tulo has a career this year in that park, in that lineup?

Dave Cameron: I think the injuries are starting to take their toll, and he’ll probably never be a top-5 player in baseball again.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Someone’s going to overpay for Joey Batflip. What do you think he ultimately gets, and from whom?

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on how good his walk year is, but something in the $100M range seems likely. Maybe 4/$90M, maybe 5/$110M, but something in there.

Jaack: Do we, in general, underrate the importance of the player development as a team skill. I mean it seems to be what’s keeping Tha cardinals and giants good while ensuring the Mariners arent…

Dave Cameron: I firmly believe that the next huge revolution in baseball will be when teams start to crack the nut on player development, and the game will shift from looking for the best raw materials to focusing on how to maximize performance from what you already have.

Prisoner of WAR: Dave, you frequently assert that Mike Trout is the best young player ever. Please recall Ted Williams, a young player who was so good he was known simply as “The Kid.” While Trout bested Williams as a 20 and 21-year-old, largely because he stole bases then, Williams at 22 and 23 was far superior. At 22, Williams hit and absurd .406/.553./.735 line with 147 BB and only 27 K (!) and then he won the Triple Crown at age 23 (I know, mostly stupid counting stats). He followed that up by spending his age 24-26 seasons flying planes in the Navy. You have estimated that Trout’s start has been so good that he could loaf his way through most of the next 10 years and still make the HOF. He should be so lucky as to compile the type of career of Williams, whose only sub-1.000 OPS came at age 40 (followed by an age 41 season of .316/.451/.645). N.B. Trout’s next 1.000 OPS year will be his first. Obviously having Ted Williams as a comp is pretty great but Trout still has a ways to go to be considered one of the greatest.

Dave Cameron: Ted Williams is maybe the best hitter of all-time. No one is arguing that Trout is a better hitter than Williams. But he’s ~90% of the bat while also playing center field and providing a lot of value as a baserunner.

Kyle Schwarber: Projections on my batting average are too low. I’ve hit north of .300 all throughout college and minors…I just got tired at the end of last year. I’ll be hitting between .280 to .300 this year. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Go look at guys with his contact rate and see how many hit .300.

Gareth : Many indians fans disagree with your statement that “we should sign Austin Jackson tomorrow.” Jackson is not enough of an incremental upgrade over Abraham Almonte to warrant the investment of guaranteed multi millions a year on a small market budget.

Dave Cameron: You realize that signing Jackson doesn’t make Almonte disappear, right? The team needs depth.

Michael: A team will win 3 world series in the next 5 years… Who do you think it will be?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers have the best chance to be that team.

Dave Cameron: The Cubs would be not far behind.

Zonk: Maybe Brewers were smart to hang onto Will Smith. If he performs, he’s exactly the type of guy teams overpay for at the deadline. Agree?

Dave Cameron: To some extent, sure, but teams were paying deadline prices for relievers this winter.

Nick: A number one starter is someone who projects at +5 WAR, number two +4 WAR, number 3 +3 WAR, number 4 +2 WAR, number 5 +1 WAR. Is this about right?

Dave Cameron: Pretty close, yeah.

Curious: Just to make us feel better about your defense of the Dodgers and so we can all understand why. Last season you defended the Billy Beane moves, including the Donaldson trade. Can we just agree that if its an analytical mind making a move you’re going to be on board with it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, because it’s not like I just ranked Houston, Pittsburgh, and Oakland as having three of the worst offseasons of any team in baseball on Monday or anything.

Dave Cameron: The criticisms of the Dodgers offseason and roster are almost entirely based on the false belief that teams with money should spend that money on high-end free agents, and any other strategy is folly. It’s dumb and it’s wrong.

Jeff: Hi Dave; is there a number that Fangraphs could move the membership cost to in order to get rid of mobile ads entirely, at least for members? I basically can’t browse the site on my phone and trying to get mobile ad providers to not serve bad ads is a pointless game of whack-a-mole.

Dave Cameron: It’s a thing we’ve discussed. We are as annoyed with the ad issues as you are, and are looking for ways to fix them.

Rog: Jose Bautista was worth 4.5 WAR last year. If we did the analysis at the end of last season (without the benefit of 2016 projections) and use the same assumptions, we would expect the 5 free agent years to be worth 4.0, 3.75, 3.25, 2.75, 2.25 WAR valued at $146m. While I do have faith in the projections, isn’t this a reasonable argument for Bautista and his agent to sell?

Dave Cameron: You don’t start a player’s projection with his 2015 value.

Dave Cameron: And your aging curve is way too optimistic.

Chris: Why is it that fans have no problems with how teams handle contract situations and how they try to get out of contracts (Orioles, etc) but when a player well outperforms his current contract and is looking to get paid in the next deal they call him “me first” and greedy. I don’t think any of us would appreciate being underpaid.

Dave Cameron: Teams aren’t getting out of contracts. Deals are guaranteed in both directions.

Kylo Ren: Your prediction of who wins more games in 2016: Twins or Royals?

Dave Cameron: Royals

mtsw: Most likely to be fixed in next CBA: 1) teams gaming service time to prevent Super Two/get additional team control, 2) International free agent situation 3) Qualifying offer?

Dave Cameron: QO

Threat Level Midnight: Has Baltimore had an under the radar strong offseason for a mid-market team trying to win now? Seems like what they are doing is what the Diamondbacks should have done

Dave Cameron: No, I’m not a fan of what they’ve done.

Ryan : The Reds just announced that Billy Hamilton will be their leadoff man this summer. Its going to be tough being a Reds fan this year.

Dave Cameron: To be fair to Bryan Price, what other option would you like him to pick?

Z: Can you elaborate on your Bruce comment about the Reds trying to flush money even though they can’t reallocate it? Since one of the functions of money is a store of value, it seems entirely reasonable that you use today’s savings to reallocate next year or whenever is the best time to “invest”. Or is this simply an area where reality diverges from reality, and why?

Dave Cameron: Teams operate on fiscal year payrolls. In almost every case, they don’t roll money over from one year to the next.

Gareth : What’s the most frustrating play in baseball to you? A play that makes you actively groan in your seat when you see it transpire. I think mine is more of a sequence – a team not getting a run in when they have a guy on third with nobody out.

Dave Cameron: Manager lets pitcher hit in 6th/7th inning, then takes him out in top half of next inning after he gets in trouble.

Cory S.: If the contract for Fowler is completed before Gallardo’s, who gets the 14th pick?

Dave Cameron: No one gets it; it goes away. Comp picks are given to teams at the end of the first round, and the signing team just surrenders their selection.

Marc: What would be a fun over/under line for Tulo, Jose, and EE total WAR this season? 9?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, maybe 9.5.

Horace Clarke: Is it realistic to think that your starting 2b can be the only backup SS/3B on a major league team? Don’t the NYY have to get a legit backup IF onto the roster who can play the left side of the infield?

Dave Cameron: How is it different if Castro moves over and Ackley plays second versus having someone replace Ackley who can play those positions himself?

Matt E G: Speaking of Contact Rate – Brantley have a shot at MVP this year?

Dave Cameron: Very slim, given that he’s starting the year on the DL and won’t rack up the HR/RBIs that voters love even when healthy.

Guest: how do the dodgers incorporate all this depth? do they just play all their best players and employ their depth when injuries strike? or do they develop a rotation of platoons for their position guys?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine they’ll have a bunch of guys play between 100-130 games. It’s not actually clear that asking guys to play 150+ is optimal.

Dan: Does anyone track catcher glove movement? (Start and stop point while ball is airborne )

Dave Cameron: Yes, Sportvision rolled out a CommandF/X system a few years back to track catcher glove movement. Teams have had it for a while, but from what I’ve heard, it’s not all that useful.

Dave: Who do you think are the best relievers in baseball that are not closers?

Dave Cameron: The two guys in NY that lost their job to Chapman.

BakedBean: Over/under on Shohei Otani getting 7 years/200M ?

Dave Cameron: Probably over. Given his youth, could see a longer deal. He’s going to be in high demand when he gets here.

Anthony: Honestly…how are the Cubs WS favorites? Outside of their Heyward and Rizzo, their whole lineup is full of 2nd year players w/ huge holes in their swings. 30% K rates. Arrieta won’t be what he was last year. Lester is a year older, never been an ace anyways despite people claiming him to be and Lackey will not, pitch like he did last year. Their pen is league average. What am I missing besides everyone wishing it to happen? They’ll be lucky to finish 2nd in their own division.

Dave Cameron: Well, I think you’re missing the ability to evaluate talent.

Forsyth: Can a team offer a QO if they decline a team option?

Dave Cameron: Yes

Kevin: Re: teams operating on annual payrolls. Isn’t this a massive inefficiency? If a club changed its accounting processes, it could have a lot more flexibility, especially if it’s a small or mid-market club in a rebuild. Agree?

Dave Cameron: Yep. The Blue Jays actually did this a few years back, but I believe they’ve gone back to fiscal year accounting now.

Jim: Would you be in favor of expanding MLB rosters to more than 25 guys?

Dave Cameron: I don’t want more than 25 active guys in a game, but I do think having a taxi squad that travels with the team and lets teams have more flexibility on who is active for a series is inevitable.

Matt E G: Dave, the Marlins just called you. They want you to choose a new city and a new team name for them. What’s your answer?

Dave Cameron: The Brooklyn Artisans.

Joey in China: Who do you think will be better over the next 3 seasons, Tulo or Corey Seager?

Dave Cameron: Seager, by a good amount.

Kylo Ren: The 2016 DBacks are just the 2015 Padres in disguise, right?

Dave Cameron: In terms of expectations they probably won’t live up to, maybe, but they are very different teams in terms of construction.

Derek Zumsteg’s Barber: How many guys on the taxi squad? Two (to replace yesterday’s and tomorrow’s starter)? More?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess a three man taxi squad, but don’t let teams deactivate their starting pitchers. You don’t want to create 10 man bullpens, but it would be useful to let teams deactivate a reliever who just needs a few days off without going on the DL.

Matt E G: What is Marlins Man’s new jersey look like now that they are the Brooklyn Artisans?

Dave Cameron: It’s made with single-origin hemp, stitched at a co-op, and sells for $20,000

BakedBean: Why do people compare the Padres to the Dbacks? I’m a Sox fan so I am neutral on this, but I mean, when did the Padres ever have anything close to Goldy to build around?

Dave Cameron: Like I said, very different rosters, but in both cases, .500ish teams that got way overhyped.

Joe: 2016 DBacks seem closer to the 2015 White Sox–big moves, addressed some holes, very strong top 5 or so players…but are still very shallow at several positions.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s the better roster comparison for last year’s try-to-contend-but-fail teams.

Dave: Don’t teams already essentially have a taxi squad with the 40 man roster?

Dave Cameron: Not really; you have to stockpile guys with options in order to do the minor league shuttle thing.

Derek Zumsteg’s Barber: How would you enforce the “no starter” exception for the taxi squad? I agree that you do not want too many relievers as the last thing baseball needs is more mid-inning pitching changes.

Dave Cameron: Any pitcher who has started a game in the last X days has to be remain active.

Dave Cameron: You pick X based on whatever teams are most comfortable with.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch and do some writing. Thanks for hanging out everyone.