Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/15/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Plenty to talk about this week; the wildly entertaining WBC, Eric’s Top 100 and the updated prospect valuations we rolled out, new Statcast data, every Rockie getting hurt…

Dave Cameron: So let’s chat for an hour or so.

The Average Sports Fan: Do you agree with Moncada as the #1 overall prospect?

Dave Cameron: I think it depends on what you’re emphasizing. It seems pretty likely that he has the highest upside of any prospect in this class, and if you think he’s going to hit for a lot of power or get the strikeouts under control, he’s a franchise player. Of course, given that Benintendi is more likely to produce value in the short-term and seems to have a lower risk profile, it’s perfectly reasonable to take a bit less upside in order to get a higher probability of some value.

Dave Cameron: For the Red Sox, keeping Benintendi was probably the right call, since he’s more likely to help them this year. If I’m the White Sox, and I’m looking way down the road, I probably do prefer Moncada.

Larry: If you were the Braves GM, how would you handle things going forward? I feel like they’re in a weird spot where the front office expects to compete, but no one outside of the franchise thinks that’s realistic.

Dave Cameron: It’s always difficult to tell how much of these ill-fated “win now” pushes is ownership or the front office. While A.J. Preller and Dave Stewart became the faces of those bad calls to try to win before they were ready, owners in both of those situations wanted a go-for-it plan to be implemented, and you can’t really tell your owners no if you don’t want to get fired.

Dave Cameron: So, for the Braves, it depends on how much of this is pressure from above to try and win while the stadium has new car smell. If the team is terrible this year, and it becomes clear they aren’t ready to push in on 2018, I’d imagine the front office will make that case.

MFG: Kiermeier, 6years/$50M. Your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Have a post about half done in the queue that will go up after the chat is over, but the basic summary is that this is a great deal for the Rays and another reason why the arb system sucks.

Braves Fan: With so many shortstop prospects having had big rookie years (Seager, Correa, Lindor), what is a reasonable expectation for Dansby Swanson for this year?

Dave Cameron: He’s not as good as those guys. His upside is more Brandon Crawford.

Dave Cameron: Who is a terrific player in his own right, but not the kind of hitter that Seager/Correa/Lindor is.

jpg: Let’s say a player come up who plays shortstop and fields as well as Simmons, has Ichiro’s contact skills, Votto’s batting eye and can run like Billy Hamilton but never hits any home runs. Would said player still be the best player in baseball? Or is it basically impossible for a guy who never hits homers to supplant a guy like Trout?

Dave Cameron: With no home runs ever, it’s really hard to be a great hitter. A high-OBP guy with a lot of defense and baserunning value is probably still something like a +6-7 WAR player, but if you’re knocking Trout off his pedestal, you’re going to have to hit it over the wall sometimes.

Roman : What do the Cubs do with Ian Happ? Would he break camp with most major league teams at this point?

Dave Cameron: A 22 year old who projects for an ~80 wRC+ and has a half-season of minor league experience above A-ball? He wouldn’t break camp with anyone. Stop being irrational about all your prospects, Cubs fans.

The Average Sports Fan: Will the Statcast take positioning out of the equation when evaluating Defensive WAR?

Dave Cameron: That’s likely to be it’s biggest impact in the short-term, yes.

Dave Cameron: The catch probabilities that MLB is putting out now can essentially be seen as measuring just range, so when we have enough data, we’ll likely be able to identify guys who are making more or fewer catches than we’d expect based on that information as players who were positioned well or poorly.

Tracy: Which will happen first: Giolito fixes his fastball or Giolito starts throwing his curve for strikes?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take Door #3: people realize the Nationals weren’t crazy for trading him for Adam Eaton.

IsIt2015Yet?: Surprised by how poorly Starling Marte grades out with new statcast defensive data. Is he overrated defensively? In for some misadventures in CF this year?

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that these catch probabilities aren’t final yet. They’ll change when spray angle is added in, and there are issues with the field dimensions (primarily accounting for wall balls) that haven’t been accounted for. I wouldn’t draw any firm conclusions based on what is currently out there. It’s more “this is interesting” data than “throw away everything else” data.

JT: Thoughts on the Kiermaier dealer? Seems like a lot of risk for the Rays, they already controlled him through his age 30 season, his skillset doesn’t earn a lot through arb even as a super 2.

Dave Cameron: They bought two free agent years for ~$20 million or so, plus probably got an option on a third year at another highly discounted rate. I fail to see any real risk for TB here.

vottomanempire: Will the M’s “3 center fielder” OF this year provide some useful data for the Statcast defensive metrics in dealing with multiple body problems?

Dave Cameron: Hopefully it helps convince people that this problem is basically a myth.

Dave Cameron: There just are very few plays in a season that two outfielders could both catch, but that isn’t just a super routine 99% of the time play, Those plays get almost no value in UZR/DRS because they are the “everyone makes them” variety.

JD15: What do the dodgers with Urias this year to limit his innings? How would you handle the situation?

Dave Cameron: Sounds like he’ll start the year in extended spring, and then join the team in May.

Dave Cameron: If Wood/McCarthy are solid starters to begin the year, they can slowplay his debut.

Erik: Some great games at the WBC so far, but it’s a shame that the USA isn’t putting out its strongest team. What’s more likely: the tournament grows in popularity, and eventually the Trouts and Kershaws all decide to play, or the tournament dies?

Dave Cameron: I actually think it’s better for the tournament that the best US players aren’t there.

Dave Cameron: If the US won every year, or most years, it wouldn’t help grow the game internationally, which is the entire point of the tournament.

Hannah Hochevar: Cool to see the statcast defense stuff, even if, as an O’s fan, I had to cover my eyes for the Trumbo line. Will running out Smith and his only mediocre defense in right be an even more significant boost than expected?

Dave Cameron: Well, Trumbo is still going to play a lot of OF, since Smith won’t start against LHPs. And I’m guessing Alvarez won’t be much better when he starts getting at-bats out there.

Larry A: You must have internal FanGraphsGraphs to see what types of articles people read most. I curious – does the site see more traffic for Fantasy pieces, or prospect stuff?

Dave Cameron: Lists. Lists drive more traffic than anything else.

Dave Cameron: Eric’s Top 100 is still our most read piece today, and it was published on Monday.

Hot Corner: If you could build your franchise around Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant or Manny Machado, which would you choose and why (assuming equal control/dollars)?

Dave Cameron: Bryant. I love Machado, but two knee surgeries is a little scary.

Dave Cameron: Arenado just isn’t in their class.

Youngman: When would you expect Coppy to use his #1 farm system for trades acquiring MLB help? (not rentals)

Dave Cameron: He loves starting pitching above all else, so I’d imagine he’ll be the high bidder on one of these Archer-types whenever they become available and the Braves look ready to win.

Matt: With Jake DeGrom back into the mid-90s, is there a better 1-2 punch than him and Syndergaard?

Dave Cameron: Kershaw/Hill. Kershaw is just so much better than everyone else.

Nick: Do you know anything about elbow swelling? Apparently Carlos Carrasco has it, and even though the Indians think it’s no big deal, anything with elbows sounds terrifying to me as an Indians fan. Should I calm down?

Dave Cameron: I’ve heard that Carrasco approached the Indians and asked for the extension they gave him last year. So, yeah, I don’t think he’s particularly confident in his long-term health, and if he’s not, than neither am I.

primantis: The Reds seem to have gotten the pu pu platter for Strailey. Wouldn’t they have done better to keep him with the goal of dealing him before the trading deadline this season?

Dave Cameron: Not if you think 2016 was a fluke.

Dave Cameron: Which it very well may have been.

Evil Goatee Dave: If you were taking a date to a baseball game, would you share drinks and not pay attention to the game, try to communicate analytically about the game’s mechanics and rules, or spend the whole time looking for a place to get to second base?

Dave Cameron: I’d try to make sure my date was having a good time, so what you do depends a lot on her personality. But I will note that asking me for dating advice is like asking Harold Reynolds to explain mixed models.

JKD: Koda Glover keeps getting talked up as having future-closer stuff, and has been lights-out so far this spring, just as he was last year before getting hurt. What’s the smart play here developmentally – just give him the job and let him work through bumps in the road, or give it to one of the several 8th-inning-capable guys on the roster (Kelley, Blanton, Treinen) and make him *take* it?

Dave Cameron: I’d give it to Kelley.

Dave Cameron: If Glover is crushing everyone in May or June and you’re still concerned about Kelley’s workload, you can make the switch then.

BTR: Can Willson Contreras have a Buster Posey-esque career?

Dave Cameron: In general, you want to bet against a guy having a “one of the best players of all time” kind of career.

CubsNerd: Can you give me some reasons for optimism on Heyward? One of the FG chatters this week said something like “not sure one offseason is enough time to fix that swing, if it’s ever fixable”

Dave Cameron: The idea that we really know much about swing mechanics from watching on TV is silly. Heyward has been an above-average big league hitter for his entire career before last year.

mtsw: After diving into the catch probability stats a little, does it change any of your opinion about who the elite CFs are?

Dave Cameron: Not really. The guys we thought were great rate out really well.

Turd Ferguson: Dave, why is Nolan Arenado’s wRC+ 25 points lower than Kris Bryant’s? Is it basically a baserunning thing? He is also slightly lower in OBP, but strikes out way less, walks about the same, has a higher ISO and slugging. I’m just confused on how the difference is so large

Dave Cameron: Park factors.

Q-Ball: Where do you think Derek Norris should land? He was terrible last year, but he’s not THAT bad a hitter, right? He rates well as a framer.

Dave Cameron: The Rays make a lot of sense. The fact that no one in baseball would take him at $4m is more about the timing aspect of not wanting to force your pitchers to learn a new catcher a few weeks before opening day. He can still clearly play at this level.

Matt: What you think ’bout Lance in the Pants McCullers? Top 50 SP?

Dave Cameron: I think Lance in the Pants is the worst nickname I’ve ever heard.

jknight82: Do you think Homer Bailey will rebuild his value enough this year for the Reds to deal him after the ASG break?

Dave Cameron: No.

Jason: Was listening to Carson & Travis on the podcast talk about how MLB teams are so good at valuing players that there is almost no need for agents. Do you agree? How long until a player decides that his statcast & WAR data speak for themselves, why not save myself 5% on $120mm?

Dave Cameron: A few players over the years have represented themselves.

Dave Cameron: But agents don’t just negotiate contracts.

Dave Cameron: It’s basically the same calculation normal people make when hiring a realtor. Yes, we could probably sell our home by ourselves, but the marginal difference we’d save generally isn’t worth it.

Erik: Any idea if Statcast has anything in the works analogous to catch probability for infielders? Seems like distance and time alone wouldn’t be enough in the infield, since much of the difficulty there comes from judging the ball’s hops.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, time/distance doesn’t work for the infield. Especially with shifts. I know they’re working on IF stuff, but it’s just harder.

American League boyz: over under 3.5 Indians make the all star team?

Dave Cameron: Kluber, Miller, Lindor are the three most likely.

Dave Cameron: So basically, the question is anyone else likely to make it from that team.

Dave Cameron: I’ll go under.

IsIt2015Yet?: Tbf, I hadn’t read about the data not accounting for positioning.

Dave Cameron: By its nature, a time/distance calculation is positioning-neutral.

BB/K: How does the Rest of Year Depth Chart Projections account for missed time (DL stints, suspensions, ect.)?

Dave Cameron: When a guy gets hurt (or suspended), we reduce his playing time.

Jeremy: This has been the most entertaining WBC to date. Recency bias or fair?

Dave Cameron: Fair.

Dan: Can you give me some 80 tools currently in MLB today? Stanton power? Kershaw curve? What else?

Dave Cameron: Chapman’s velo, Hamilton’s speed.

Dave Cameron: Aaron Hicks’ arm.

Paul: Should fielders get any credit whatsoever for how they position themselves? I know that is heavily influenced by coaching – but then again, so are lots of aspects of baseball. I’m not talking about shifts necessarily, but just taking a few steps in the right direction that ends up being the difference between making a play or not. I also fully realize that’s hard (impossible?) to quantify, but I figure there is value in being good at that.

Dave Cameron: Absolutely.

Dave Cameron: While true-talent metrics are interesting, what we really care about is value.

Dave Cameron: And turning a ball in play into an out is valuable.

Erik: So if FanGraphs wanted to maximize traffic while still being basically FanGraphs you’d have to turn into SabrBuzzfeed?

Dave Cameron: There’s a reason Buzzfeed and Bleacher Report got so big so fast.

Dave Cameron: Clickbait lists are everywhere because they work.

Sleeper Star: Just for fun: Considering we’re now in the “Golden Age of Shortstops,” what 2-3 field positions do you think are headed for the Dark Ages over the next 5+ years considering their depth of Major and Minor League talent?

Dave Cameron: First base is kind of garbage right now.

Dave Cameron: Good young first baseman: Greg Bird, maybe. Cody Bellinger, potentially. And that’s about it.

Guest: Enjoyed the piece on prospect valuation. Is there any data on proximity to the majors? Is a 60 FV prospect in AAA worth any more than a 60 FV prospect in Lo A?

Dave Cameron: The FV rating is supposed to take risk into account.

Dave Cameron: And proximity to the majors is part of risk.

DTH: in the development of a new metric, if it told you something vastly different from what you thought was true, would you first assume a) there’s something wonky with the metric, or b) you’re learning something new about the players? I assume you’d examine both possibilities, but which would be your first assumption?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what the metric is measuring. If you tell me you have a new offensive value tool that is wildly different than wRC+, your tool is probably broken.

Dave Cameron: If you have a pitcher or fielding rating, then I’d be way more open to drastically different conclusions.

Tyler: You dont think EE has a good chance to make the all star team?

Dave Cameron: Is the game in an AL park this year?

Dave Cameron: I honestly have no idea.

Dave Cameron: If it’s in an NL park, no.

mtsw: How do you feel about the rule change that forbids teams from laying markers on the field to assist players with positioning for shifts?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it will matter much. There are other ways to get guys to stand right where you want to.

CaptainPeanutbutter: Simmons’ fielding would probably be an 80, right? or is he not quite there? KK’s fielding?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, though overall fielding is more of a combination of tools than one tool itself.

Matt: “This ball was hit with the third highest exit velo of the season, but you’ll never believe what happened next”

Dave Cameron: Fun fact; hardest ball ever hit by Statcast was a double play.

Henry: Because 1st base is so bad, should a 1st base prospect like Mancini or Bellinger be worth more than a SS propsect like Torres or Crawford at this point?

Dave Cameron: No

Von Schloss: Chris Russo just cited HR & RBI from last year as reasons Kiermaier is not worth his contract extension. That makes me sad.

Dave Cameron: You should be sad you listen to Chris Russo.

Richie: I’ll cheerfully go over for the Indian all stars. Tito’s helping pick the team, and managers lovelovelove rewarding their guys in that regard.

Dave Cameron: The manager’s influence has been wildly reduced.

Dave Cameron: They only get to pick a few players now.

Richie: Miggy wasn’t a ‘good young first baseman’ either. A couple of young, good-hitting outfielders/third basemen/catchers etc. will find themselves starring at first in due time.

Dave Cameron: Sure, but there aren’t really many great young hitters who also suck at fielding right now. Sano is probably the closest, but his K% makes it unlikely he ever turns into Miggy. Maybe Stanton ends up at 1B if his knees keep hurting.

Dave Cameron: Schwarber I guess fits.

Good Young 1b: Wil Myers is good and young, right?

Dave Cameron: He’s fine.

Arenado v Bryant: Isnt Arenado’s defense another plus for him in a debate against Bryant? Bryant is no slouch but I was under the impression that Arenado is an elite defender.

Dave Cameron: Arenado is a better defender than Bryant, but the defensive gap is nowhere near as large as the offensive gap.

Good Young 1b: Giving up on AJ Reed?

Dave Cameron: As a high-end player? Yes.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to finish my Kiermaier post.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Plenty to talk about this week; the wildly entertaining WBC, Eric’s Top 100 and the updated prospect valuations we rolled out, new Statcast data, every Rockie getting hurt…

Dave Cameron: So let’s chat for an hour or so.

The Average Sports Fan: Do you agree with Moncada as the #1 overall prospect?

Dave Cameron: I think it depends on what you’re emphasizing. It seems pretty likely that he has the highest upside of any prospect in this class, and if you think he’s going to hit for a lot of power or get the strikeouts under control, he’s a franchise player. Of course, given that Benintendi is more likely to produce value in the short-term and seems to have a lower risk profile, it’s perfectly reasonable to take a bit less upside in order to get a higher probability of some value.

Dave Cameron: For the Red Sox, keeping Benintendi was probably the right call, since he’s more likely to help them this year. If I’m the White Sox, and I’m looking way down the road, I probably do prefer Moncada.

Larry: If you were the Braves GM, how would you handle things going forward? I feel like they’re in a weird spot where the front office expects to compete, but no one outside of the franchise thinks that’s realistic.

Dave Cameron: It’s always difficult to tell how much of these ill-fated “win now” pushes is ownership or the front office. While A.J. Preller and Dave Stewart became the faces of those bad calls to try to win before they were ready, owners in both of those situations wanted a go-for-it plan to be implemented, and you can’t really tell your owners no if you don’t want to get fired.

Dave Cameron: So, for the Braves, it depends on how much of this is pressure from above to try and win while the stadium has new car smell. If the team is terrible this year, and it becomes clear they aren’t ready to push in on 2018, I’d imagine the front office will make that case.

MFG: Kiermeier, 6years/$50M. Your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Have a post about half done in the queue that will go up after the chat is over, but the basic summary is that this is a great deal for the Rays and another reason why the arb system sucks.

Braves Fan: With so many shortstop prospects having had big rookie years (Seager, Correa, Lindor), what is a reasonable expectation for Dansby Swanson for this year?

Dave Cameron: He’s not as good as those guys. His upside is more Brandon Crawford.

Dave Cameron: Who is a terrific player in his own right, but not the kind of hitter that Seager/Correa/Lindor is.

jpg: Let’s say a player come up who plays shortstop and fields as well as Simmons, has Ichiro’s contact skills, Votto’s batting eye and can run like Billy Hamilton but never hits any home runs. Would said player still be the best player in baseball? Or is it basically impossible for a guy who never hits homers to supplant a guy like Trout?

Dave Cameron: With no home runs ever, it’s really hard to be a great hitter. A high-OBP guy with a lot of defense and baserunning value is probably still something like a +6-7 WAR player, but if you’re knocking Trout off his pedestal, you’re going to have to hit it over the wall sometimes.

Roman : What do the Cubs do with Ian Happ? Would he break camp with most major league teams at this point?

Dave Cameron: A 22 year old who projects for an ~80 wRC+ and has a half-season of minor league experience above A-ball? He wouldn’t break camp with anyone. Stop being irrational about all your prospects, Cubs fans.

The Average Sports Fan: Will the Statcast take positioning out of the equation when evaluating Defensive WAR?

Dave Cameron: That’s likely to be it’s biggest impact in the short-term, yes.

Dave Cameron: The catch probabilities that MLB is putting out now can essentially be seen as measuring just range, so when we have enough data, we’ll likely be able to identify guys who are making more or fewer catches than we’d expect based on that information as players who were positioned well or poorly.

Tracy: Which will happen first: Giolito fixes his fastball or Giolito starts throwing his curve for strikes?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take Door #3: people realize the Nationals weren’t crazy for trading him for Adam Eaton.

IsIt2015Yet?: Surprised by how poorly Starling Marte grades out with new statcast defensive data. Is he overrated defensively? In for some misadventures in CF this year?

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that these catch probabilities aren’t final yet. They’ll change when spray angle is added in, and there are issues with the field dimensions (primarily accounting for wall balls) that haven’t been accounted for. I wouldn’t draw any firm conclusions based on what is currently out there. It’s more “this is interesting” data than “throw away everything else” data.

JT: Thoughts on the Kiermaier dealer? Seems like a lot of risk for the Rays, they already controlled him through his age 30 season, his skillset doesn’t earn a lot through arb even as a super 2.

Dave Cameron: They bought two free agent years for ~$20 million or so, plus probably got an option on a third year at another highly discounted rate. I fail to see any real risk for TB here.

vottomanempire: Will the M’s “3 center fielder” OF this year provide some useful data for the Statcast defensive metrics in dealing with multiple body problems?

Dave Cameron: Hopefully it helps convince people that this problem is basically a myth.

Dave Cameron: There just are very few plays in a season that two outfielders could both catch, but that isn’t just a super routine 99% of the time play, Those plays get almost no value in UZR/DRS because they are the “everyone makes them” variety.

JD15: What do the dodgers with Urias this year to limit his innings? How would you handle the situation?

Dave Cameron: Sounds like he’ll start the year in extended spring, and then join the team in May.

Dave Cameron: If Wood/McCarthy are solid starters to begin the year, they can slowplay his debut.

Erik: Some great games at the WBC so far, but it’s a shame that the USA isn’t putting out its strongest team. What’s more likely: the tournament grows in popularity, and eventually the Trouts and Kershaws all decide to play, or the tournament dies?

Dave Cameron: I actually think it’s better for the tournament that the best US players aren’t there.

Dave Cameron: If the US won every year, or most years, it wouldn’t help grow the game internationally, which is the entire point of the tournament.

Hannah Hochevar: Cool to see the statcast defense stuff, even if, as an O’s fan, I had to cover my eyes for the Trumbo line. Will running out Smith and his only mediocre defense in right be an even more significant boost than expected?

Dave Cameron: Well, Trumbo is still going to play a lot of OF, since Smith won’t start against LHPs. And I’m guessing Alvarez won’t be much better when he starts getting at-bats out there.

Larry A: You must have internal FanGraphsGraphs to see what types of articles people read most. I curious – does the site see more traffic for Fantasy pieces, or prospect stuff?

Dave Cameron: Lists. Lists drive more traffic than anything else.

Dave Cameron: Eric’s Top 100 is still our most read piece today, and it was published on Monday.

Hot Corner: If you could build your franchise around Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant or Manny Machado, which would you choose and why (assuming equal control/dollars)?

Dave Cameron: Bryant. I love Machado, but two knee surgeries is a little scary.

Dave Cameron: Arenado just isn’t in their class.

Youngman: When would you expect Coppy to use his #1 farm system for trades acquiring MLB help? (not rentals)

Dave Cameron: He loves starting pitching above all else, so I’d imagine he’ll be the high bidder on one of these Archer-types whenever they become available and the Braves look ready to win.

Matt: With Jake DeGrom back into the mid-90s, is there a better 1-2 punch than him and Syndergaard?

Dave Cameron: Kershaw/Hill. Kershaw is just so much better than everyone else.

Nick: Do you know anything about elbow swelling? Apparently Carlos Carrasco has it, and even though the Indians think it’s no big deal, anything with elbows sounds terrifying to me as an Indians fan. Should I calm down?

Dave Cameron: I’ve heard that Carrasco approached the Indians and asked for the extension they gave him last year. So, yeah, I don’t think he’s particularly confident in his long-term health, and if he’s not, than neither am I.

primantis: The Reds seem to have gotten the pu pu platter for Strailey. Wouldn’t they have done better to keep him with the goal of dealing him before the trading deadline this season?

Dave Cameron: Not if you think 2016 was a fluke.

Dave Cameron: Which it very well may have been.

Evil Goatee Dave: If you were taking a date to a baseball game, would you share drinks and not pay attention to the game, try to communicate analytically about the game’s mechanics and rules, or spend the whole time looking for a place to get to second base?

Dave Cameron: I’d try to make sure my date was having a good time, so what you do depends a lot on her personality. But I will note that asking me for dating advice is like asking Harold Reynolds to explain mixed models.

JKD: Koda Glover keeps getting talked up as having future-closer stuff, and has been lights-out so far this spring, just as he was last year before getting hurt. What’s the smart play here developmentally – just give him the job and let him work through bumps in the road, or give it to one of the several 8th-inning-capable guys on the roster (Kelley, Blanton, Treinen) and make him *take* it?

Dave Cameron: I’d give it to Kelley.

Dave Cameron: If Glover is crushing everyone in May or June and you’re still concerned about Kelley’s workload, you can make the switch then.

BTR: Can Willson Contreras have a Buster Posey-esque career?

Dave Cameron: In general, you want to bet against a guy having a “one of the best players of all time” kind of career.

CubsNerd: Can you give me some reasons for optimism on Heyward? One of the FG chatters this week said something like “not sure one offseason is enough time to fix that swing, if it’s ever fixable”

Dave Cameron: The idea that we really know much about swing mechanics from watching on TV is silly. Heyward has been an above-average big league hitter for his entire career before last year.

mtsw: After diving into the catch probability stats a little, does it change any of your opinion about who the elite CFs are?

Dave Cameron: Not really. The guys we thought were great rate out really well.

Turd Ferguson: Dave, why is Nolan Arenado’s wRC+ 25 points lower than Kris Bryant’s? Is it basically a baserunning thing? He is also slightly lower in OBP, but strikes out way less, walks about the same, has a higher ISO and slugging. I’m just confused on how the difference is so large

Dave Cameron: Park factors.

Q-Ball: Where do you think Derek Norris should land? He was terrible last year, but he’s not THAT bad a hitter, right? He rates well as a framer.

Dave Cameron: The Rays make a lot of sense. The fact that no one in baseball would take him at $4m is more about the timing aspect of not wanting to force your pitchers to learn a new catcher a few weeks before opening day. He can still clearly play at this level.

Matt: What you think ’bout Lance in the Pants McCullers? Top 50 SP?

Dave Cameron: I think Lance in the Pants is the worst nickname I’ve ever heard.

jknight82: Do you think Homer Bailey will rebuild his value enough this year for the Reds to deal him after the ASG break?

Dave Cameron: No.

Jason: Was listening to Carson & Travis on the podcast talk about how MLB teams are so good at valuing players that there is almost no need for agents. Do you agree? How long until a player decides that his statcast & WAR data speak for themselves, why not save myself 5% on $120mm?

Dave Cameron: A few players over the years have represented themselves.

Dave Cameron: But agents don’t just negotiate contracts.

Dave Cameron: It’s basically the same calculation normal people make when hiring a realtor. Yes, we could probably sell our home by ourselves, but the marginal difference we’d save generally isn’t worth it.

Erik: Any idea if Statcast has anything in the works analogous to catch probability for infielders? Seems like distance and time alone wouldn’t be enough in the infield, since much of the difficulty there comes from judging the ball’s hops.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, time/distance doesn’t work for the infield. Especially with shifts. I know they’re working on IF stuff, but it’s just harder.

American League boyz: over under 3.5 Indians make the all star team?

Dave Cameron: Kluber, Miller, Lindor are the three most likely.

Dave Cameron: So basically, the question is anyone else likely to make it from that team.

Dave Cameron: I’ll go under.

IsIt2015Yet?: Tbf, I hadn’t read about the data not accounting for positioning.

Dave Cameron: By its nature, a time/distance calculation is positioning-neutral.

BB/K: How does the Rest of Year Depth Chart Projections account for missed time (DL stints, suspensions, ect.)?

Dave Cameron: When a guy gets hurt (or suspended), we reduce his playing time.

Jeremy: This has been the most entertaining WBC to date. Recency bias or fair?

Dave Cameron: Fair.

Dan: Can you give me some 80 tools currently in MLB today? Stanton power? Kershaw curve? What else?

Dave Cameron: Chapman’s velo, Hamilton’s speed.

Dave Cameron: Aaron Hicks’ arm.

Paul: Should fielders get any credit whatsoever for how they position themselves? I know that is heavily influenced by coaching – but then again, so are lots of aspects of baseball. I’m not talking about shifts necessarily, but just taking a few steps in the right direction that ends up being the difference between making a play or not. I also fully realize that’s hard (impossible?) to quantify, but I figure there is value in being good at that.

Dave Cameron: Absolutely.

Dave Cameron: While true-talent metrics are interesting, what we really care about is value.

Dave Cameron: And turning a ball in play into an out is valuable.

Erik: So if FanGraphs wanted to maximize traffic while still being basically FanGraphs you’d have to turn into SabrBuzzfeed?

Dave Cameron: There’s a reason Buzzfeed and Bleacher Report got so big so fast.

Dave Cameron: Clickbait lists are everywhere because they work.

Sleeper Star: Just for fun: Considering we’re now in the “Golden Age of Shortstops,” what 2-3 field positions do you think are headed for the Dark Ages over the next 5+ years considering their depth of Major and Minor League talent?

Dave Cameron: First base is kind of garbage right now.

Dave Cameron: Good young first baseman: Greg Bird, maybe. Cody Bellinger, potentially. And that’s about it.

Guest: Enjoyed the piece on prospect valuation. Is there any data on proximity to the majors? Is a 60 FV prospect in AAA worth any more than a 60 FV prospect in Lo A?

Dave Cameron: The FV rating is supposed to take risk into account.

Dave Cameron: And proximity to the majors is part of risk.

DTH: in the development of a new metric, if it told you something vastly different from what you thought was true, would you first assume a) there’s something wonky with the metric, or b) you’re learning something new about the players? I assume you’d examine both possibilities, but which would be your first assumption?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what the metric is measuring. If you tell me you have a new offensive value tool that is wildly different than wRC+, your tool is probably broken.

Dave Cameron: If you have a pitcher or fielding rating, then I’d be way more open to drastically different conclusions.

Tyler: You dont think EE has a good chance to make the all star team?

Dave Cameron: Is the game in an AL park this year?

Dave Cameron: I honestly have no idea.

Dave Cameron: If it’s in an NL park, no.

mtsw: How do you feel about the rule change that forbids teams from laying markers on the field to assist players with positioning for shifts?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it will matter much. There are other ways to get guys to stand right where you want to.

CaptainPeanutbutter: Simmons’ fielding would probably be an 80, right? or is he not quite there? KK’s fielding?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, though overall fielding is more of a combination of tools than one tool itself.

Matt: “This ball was hit with the third highest exit velo of the season, but you’ll never believe what happened next”

Dave Cameron: Fun fact; hardest ball ever hit by Statcast was a double play.

Henry: Because 1st base is so bad, should a 1st base prospect like Mancini or Bellinger be worth more than a SS propsect like Torres or Crawford at this point?

Dave Cameron: No

Von Schloss: Chris Russo just cited HR & RBI from last year as reasons Kiermaier is not worth his contract extension. That makes me sad.

Dave Cameron: You should be sad you listen to Chris Russo.

Richie: I’ll cheerfully go over for the Indian all stars. Tito’s helping pick the team, and managers lovelovelove rewarding their guys in that regard.

Dave Cameron: The manager’s influence has been wildly reduced.

Dave Cameron: They only get to pick a few players now.

Richie: Miggy wasn’t a ‘good young first baseman’ either. A couple of young, good-hitting outfielders/third basemen/catchers etc. will find themselves starring at first in due time.

Dave Cameron: Sure, but there aren’t really many great young hitters who also suck at fielding right now. Sano is probably the closest, but his K% makes it unlikely he ever turns into Miggy. Maybe Stanton ends up at 1B if his knees keep hurting.

Dave Cameron: Schwarber I guess fits.

Good Young 1b: Wil Myers is good and young, right?

Dave Cameron: He’s fine.

Arenado v Bryant: Isnt Arenado’s defense another plus for him in a debate against Bryant? Bryant is no slouch but I was under the impression that Arenado is an elite defender.

Dave Cameron: Arenado is a better defender than Bryant, but the defensive gap is nowhere near as large as the offensive gap.

Good Young 1b: Giving up on AJ Reed?

Dave Cameron: As a high-end player? Yes.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to finish my Kiermaier post.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.