Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/18/15

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. I’m actually going to start a few minutes early this week, so we’ll open up the queue now and start answering questions in 10 minutes or so.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this party started.

Comment From Eric
Have a chance to catch Miguel Castro last night? Word is Jays want him to go 4IP next outing which is interesting considering he’s almost certainly going to make the team.

Dave Cameron: History says this probably won’t work, but it’s also maybe worth taking a shot; pitcher aging curves are weird, and guys do take huge leaps forward sometimes. If he looks like an A-ball pitcher in April, it’s not the end of the world to send him down.

Comment From @RFLRedZone
How are the Giants looking without Hunter Pence for a month or more?

Dave Cameron: Slightly worse, but a month without anyone won’t kill a contender.

Comment From Moop
Does Billy Butler rebound a little in Oakland?

Dave Cameron: Sure; he’ll go back to being mediocre instead of terrible.

Comment From EC
Will Nats be in trouble next year with Zimm and Fister likely leaving?

Dave Cameron: And maybe Desmond and Span too. I don’t know if they’ll be “in trouble”, but they’re going to be worse. This is their best shot at winning it all.

Comment From EC
Will fangraphs be putting out trophy predictions (MVP/CY/etc)?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, likely the Friday before Opening Day.

Comment From Walt
what was the most difficult part about making a career change from traditional to baseball? how did you overcome it?

Dave Cameron: I actually quit my accounting job without planning on going into baseball writing. I just got lucky that this became a thing I was able to do not long after deciding to leave my corporate job. I will say that the biggest challenge remains the lack of human interaction on a day to day basis. In an office job, you might not love all your coworkers, but there are people around all the time. When you work from home, you can go a few days without talking to anyone besides your spouse. So you get a dog and talk to them instead.

Comment From Nick
Hi Dave. How do you think the Indians will/should handle Lindor early this season?

Dave Cameron: He’ll go to Triple-A and likely show that he’s not big league ready yet. I know he’s an exciting talent, but I don’t think he’ll be a useful big league player until some time next year.

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
What’s your take on Eduardo Rodriguez?

Dave Cameron: I’m a fan, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox broke him in as a reliever. He could be their Andrew Miller this year.

Comment From dennetOTM
Among all the skill sets a position player could have, I would have thought Allen Craig’s is most resilient against decline. Is there any skill set on a position player that ages as well as above-average ability to make contact?

Dave Cameron: It’s not so much a particular skill as it is a body type. Really good athletes age better than dumpy guys who are in the big leagues because they can hit, for the same reasons that people in good shape are healthier in real life too.

Comment From Pale Hose
There are two players guaranteed to hit 30 homers. One hits them randomly the other gets to choose when to “intentionally” homer. All else equal what is your best guess to how much more valuable the second player is in team wins?

Dave Cameron: If you could distribute all 30 HRs to very high leverage situations, you’re probably looking at something like 1.5x to 2x value.

Comment From Erasmo Ramirez
Will they hide me in the bullpen?

Dave Cameron: You’re going to end up in Houston or Tampa Bay as a waiver claim, and then you’ll remember how to throw strikes magically.

Comment From Roosnie Castilletts
Will both Mookie and Rusney be in the starting lineup come opening day? If not, who does Dave Cameron have on the pine?

Dave Cameron: Imagine Rusney starts the year on the DL and gets an extended rehab stint in Triple-A, to avoid the ignominy of optioning him the minors. Betts will play everyday in April, and they’ll figure out where to fit Rusney starting in May.

Comment From EC
What does Ian Desmond sign for next year if he has an Ian Desmond year?

Dave Cameron: 7/140, maybe a little more.

Comment From lunch
are there any teams whose off seasons don’t make sense to you? not that you think what they did was dumb, but moves that you don’t understand. i guess i’m asking – which team has the least sensical off season narrative?

Dave Cameron: The Reds/Phillies/Brewers, probably.

Comment From Nick
My best friend just had his first baby. How long before I can expect that his sleep schedule will normalize enough that I can get him back for some occasional evening online Settlers of Catan?

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on how good of a sleeper his baby is — my understanding is this is mostly random — and how understanding his wife is. My guy is a great sleeper, so my night time schedule hasn’t changed as much as I expected.

Comment From Unnamed NL GM
Prove to me, not using your little “numbers” , “facts”, and “truths” how Mike Trout is ANY better than Adam Jones?

Dave Cameron: At this point, Dave Stewart should just never talk to the media again.

Comment From Erich
Word on the street is that RAJ is willing to eat $50 million of the $60 million the Phillies still owe Ryan Howard. Is even that amount enough to get them anything more than a bag of balls in return?

Dave Cameron: Ryan Howard is worth the league minimum, maybe. No way anyone picks up 2/$10M.

Comment From Mason
The Indians front office has come out saying their internal defensive numbers shows Brantley as being above average. Considering some of the people they have working in their analytics department do you put any stock in it or is that just normal front office fluff?

Dave Cameron: It’s called publication bias. If they didn’t have metrics that disagreed with Brantley’s UZR/DRS, they wouldn’t comment. We only hear about their internal metrics because they’re positive for the team. It’s certainly possible that Brantley is better than the public measures give him credit for. I wouldn’t assume that it’s definitely the case just because the Cleveland FO says so, though.

Comment From Guest
Would you put the percent chance of winning the AL West at roughly 35/35/30 for LAA/SEA/OAK?

Dave Cameron: Sure, that sounds close to right. I might like the A’s a little more than everyone else, so maybe I’m 33/33/33, but it’s something like that.

Comment From Alex
It seems like Anthony Rizzo figured out hitting lefties last season, but how do we know he has actually figured them out and it wasn’t just one fluky year?

Dave Cameron: We don’t. Single year platoon splits are mostly worthless.

Comment From rustydude
Does Aaron Sanchez have the skills, i.e. pitches & command, to be a Blue Jays starter?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so.

Comment From Guest
Research says pitbulls are uniquely violent dogs. What’s with the cult of pitbull defense when these studies are referenced?

Dave Cameron: I’m much more in the nurture camp when it comes to dogs. There are some genetic differences, I’m sure, but in general, I’d say the odds of a pitbull being placed in a good home and being treated well turning into a vicious monster are very low. Maybe somewhat higher than a lab or a golden, but still low.

Comment From John
Does Wheeler’s injury move the Marlins ahead of the Mets?

Dave Cameron: They were probably already ahead of them, but it’s close. Neither team is very godo.

Comment From Alex Cobb
How worried should people be about my current injury?

Dave Cameron: I’d go with highly worried. Forearm strain seems like the usual precursor to TJ.

Comment From lolphillies
So, what do the Phillies have that is nailed down at this point? Are they in 2013 Astros territory?

Dave Cameron: As long as they have Utley, Hamels, and Ruiz, there’s enough there to avoid being Astros bad. But if they trade all three, they’ll be an absolutely train wreck. Which is probably why they’re not in a big hurry to do that.

Comment From Guest
is denard span good at baseball, relative to other major league starting OFers?

Dave Cameron: He’s an above average big leaguer, so yes.

Comment From STiVo
Will you be watching the NCAA tourney this year? Who you got?

Dave Cameron: The first two days of the tournament are always a blast, so yes, I’ll be working from a sports bar tomorrow afternoon. But I don’t have any insight into who is going to win. I know Kentucky is good. You’re better off asking Ken Pomeroy.

Comment From Guest
What do you think about Roth v. Traditional 401k?

Dave Cameron: Depends mostly on your current tax bracket. The additional benefit of a Roth is the ability to extract your contributions (not the gains, just what you put in) so those who are just starting out aren’t making as long of a commitment if they get in a bind and need some cash in order to avoid maxing out high interest credit cards.

Dave Cameron: But if you’re in a stable situation and not living paycheck to paycheck, you might be in a high enough tax bracket to where you are better off deferring the taxes.

Comment From Jaack
Tell me something about Stan Coveleski, please.

Dave Cameron: If forced to guess, I’d bet that he’s Polish?

Dave Cameron: (I’ve never heard of him)

Comment From Hipster Beard
If Stephen Drew’s exposure to LHP is limited, and his average fly ball distance regresses, possibly regressing his BABIP as well, do you think it’s possible for him to be a league average second basemen offensively?

Dave Cameron: Sure, it’s possible. That’s not a very high bar.

Comment From Trane
Cingrani moving to the bullpen. What is his long term role prediction?

Dave Cameron: One-pitch guy with big platoon splits and health problems. This seems like probably the right call.

Dave Cameron: If he stays healthy, he could turn out to be an outstanding LH reliever though.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
I keep hearing completely unsubstantiated rumors that the Sox may trade Victorino. What might Victorino fetch in a trade?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see it. If he’s playing well, they’ll want to keep him. If he’s not playing well, no one will want him.

Comment From STiVo
Which new Red Sox player has a higher WAR in 2015: Panda or Hanley?

Dave Cameron: Hanley.

Comment From Adam
With the amount of serious pitching injuries, do you think it would make more sense for teams to start getting their talented young pitchers up to MLB earlier at the risk that they may be a little overmatched at first? The more innings at MLB level they can get from their talented guys the better right?

Dave Cameron: No, because if you rush a guy, then you’re expending valuable pre-arb service years on a guy who isn’t that productive, and by the time he gets good, he’s expensive.

Comment From Guest
Pick your spot for 30 HR? That would be intersting. Have him on the bench for more flexibility? Gauranteed walk offs, yes please.

Dave Cameron: That would actually be very anti-climactic, I would think. Every late-inning tie is an automatic win.

Comment From @outfieldgrass24
Coming back from D-backs camp, I’ve decided that the team has three DH’s in Trumbo, Tomas and O’Brien. Is there any way they can play all three of them without being absolutely killed on defense?

Dave Cameron: Trumbo is actually a decent defensive first baseman. But, yeah, not going to play 1B in Arizona. The D’Backs are going to be a debacle this year.

Comment From mtsw
Orioles have a very crowded bullpen situation. How do you expect it to play out? Do either Rule 5 guys make the team? Does an under-contract guy like Ryan Webb or Wesley Wright just get released? Someone get traded? Seems like something’s gotta give.

Dave Cameron: There are always teams looking for relievers late in ST. A trade seems likely.

Comment From Ben
Isn’t it reasonable to think Texas can compete in 2016? Darvish should be back fairly early and they have a lot of good prospects that could be ready by then. I feel like they could be like the Red Sox last year, especially if they can trade a few guys at the deadline and add a bit more.

Dave Cameron: They’re not anywhere close to contending. They’re bad.

Comment From dennetOTM
Related to the HR thing, isn’t there a case to be made that high leverage relievers provide value out of proportion to their WAR? Their skill is being deployed at a point in the game where you have much more knowledge of your likelihood of winning or losing. You can’t pick and choose when HRs come, but you can do something kinda like that with elite relievers.

Dave Cameron: Leverage is included in reliever WAR.

Comment From Not a RSox or Cubs Fan
Which player will garner more Q’s today: Betts or Bryant?

Dave Cameron: The Betts questions have mostly dried up now that it seems like the consensus is that he’s actually pretty good and we weren’t crazy to like him last summer.

Comment From Trane
How long until the Twins become legit contenders?

Dave Cameron: A while. Buxton/Sano have big time risk attached, and if either (or both) fail, they’re going to suck for several more years.

Comment From Don
As much as they probably don’t want to call him up, do you think the Mets will be too tempted by his talent to let Syndergaard pitch in the minors for very long this year? When do you see his ETA?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess that they’d like to hold him down past the Super Two deadline, but if he pitches well and Colon falls apart, they won’t wait past mid-May.

Comment From The Average+Sports+Fan
Since you list the Reds first among off seasons that didn’t make sense. What would you have done differently?

Dave Cameron: Either tried harder to put a real winner on the field or just blown it all up and gone into rebuild mode. Picked a side, basically. They just did neither.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Who says no to this Rangers/Padres/Cubs three way? Padres get Adrian Beltre; Cubs get Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross; Rangers get Javier Baez and Dan Vogelbach from Cubs, Hunter Renfroe from Padres

Dave Cameron: All three of them, I think.

Comment From Nik
Phillies had a nonsensical off-season because they wouldn’t give away Cole Hamels for mediocre prospects?

Dave Cameron: If every team in baseball is only offering “mediocre” prospects, then guess what, you now know what Cole Hamels is worth. Really, though, the Phillies should be paying down these veteran’s salaries in order to get real talent in exchange. It’s not like they can re-spend Hamels 2015 salary anyway, so the only thing insisting that another team take the whole contract is doing is lessening the amount of talent they can get in return. Each at least this year’s salary and get the kind of talent you want back in return. Better year, eat half the contract and get a huge haul.

Comment From Kobe B.
Is the hype surrounding Kris Bryant warranted? Would his K-Rate tend for us to temper this hype more towards him being a 3 true outcome player?

Dave Cameron: I tend to look at him as a very high floor prospect, but probably not going to be the best player in baseball at any point. The contact problems and defensive limitations mean that he’ll probably be good-not-great. The Troy Glaus comparison seems to ring true, but he doesn’t have Glaus’ defense.

Comment From RK
Any thoughts/updates to your Reds article yesterday now that Raisel Iglesias has been named to the rotation?

Dave Cameron: Better him than Maholm. Still don’t get the point of having Jason Marquis around, but this is better.

Comment From sc
This is a in-theory question based on Today’s article “Could a prospect ever be in high enough regard that he would be one of the three most valuable assets in the sport before experiencing major league action?” What would need to be demonstrated for such a status to be achieved?

Dave Cameron: Harper a couple of years ago had a case.

Dave Cameron: But when there’s the kinds of young big league talent like there is in the game right now, yeah, picking guys like Correa or Swihart is insane.

Comment From RaysofSunshine
Do you think the Rays have a better ballclub going into this year than last? Do you think they’ll have a better year?

Dave Cameron: I liked them a lot more with Cobb and Smyly. If those two miss any real length of time, they could end up being mediocre.

Comment From mtsw
Even if you assume the Nationals are 100% locks to win their division, how good do they have to be to go from 12.5% (odds of winning 3 coinflips in a row) to the 18% WS odds the FG model has them pegged at? Are they really that much better than the other NL playoff teams?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re quite a bit better than every non-Dodgers team in baseball. They wouldn’t be a coin-flip in the ALCS or WS, and if the Dodgers don’t make the NLCS, wouldn’t be a coin flip in any series.

Comment From @outfieldgrass24
Jeremy Hellickson is a terrible fit for the Diamondbacks, right? I mean, aside from him not being all that good in the first place…

Dave Cameron: Yup. There were a lot of transactions that showed the D’Backs front office doesn’t know what they’re doing. That was one of the main ones, though.

Comment From Trane
which team wins 90 games 1st, Mets/Twins/Astors?

Dave Cameron: Astros.

Comment From Marc
Kang eventually beats out Mercer for starting shortstop?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine they’ll do an offense/defense job share, starting Kang when they need a bat and Mercer when they need a glove.

Comment From _David_
Are the Angels set with their second base tandem? Wouldn’t Olivera make sense?

Dave Cameron: Yes, he’s one of the teams that he makes the most sense for.

Comment From Eric
How would you solve the manipulation of service time issue?

Dave Cameron: I liked Petriello’s 100 days in a service year rule. The PA would have to give something significant up to get the owners to go for it, though.

Comment From klof
how would you play rosario if you were rockies manager?

Dave Cameron: Sparingly.

Comment From 3
Who is your favourite baseball writer?

Dave Cameron: It will very likely be Jeff Sullivan until he decides to do something else with his life.

Comment From Marc
what would the trade market for jeff locke look like?

Dave Cameron: Non-existant?

Comment From CardinalSins
What do you expect out of Jason Heyward this year offensively?

Dave Cameron: Improvement.

Comment From John
A list of 3-5 guys that might not be the greatest/highest WAR but you find the most entertaining to watch?

Dave Cameron: I like soft-tossing change-up pitchers with great command. Mark Buehrle types.

Comment From RMR
Before becoming the Reds manager, Bryan Price talked a pretty sabermetric game. Now, he’s talking about the team needing to run more and is actively choosing to have Jason Marquis in his rotation. Do you think there’s something about the realities of managing that results in the otherwise sabermetrically inclined to soften on their supposed principles?

Dave Cameron: It’s not really Bryan Price’s fault that Jason Marquis is in camp. He doesn’t really get to dictate the organizational direction.

Comment From Frankie fast hands
Hey dave! I liked the article. It’s crazy that 3 chose Bryant and none chose Harper right? Do people forget how young Harper still is? If he was still in the minors he would put equal to or better stats than Bryant right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the move away from Bryce Harper has been far too severe. He’s still really good.

Comment From mtsw
Have you considered giving Fangraphs articles more clickbait-y headlines to juice social media traffic? “Bartolo Colon had an at bat, what happened next will restore your faith in humanity” and the like?

Dave Cameron: If we ever go that direction, I’ll probably quit.

Dave Cameron: (We won’t)

Comment From Guest
Ever been to Canada?

Dave Cameron: Victoria is maybe my favorite place on earth.

Comment From Erich
Re: Brewers nonsensical offseason – in your opinion, the same idea as the Reds? Either go all out for big performers to give them a better chance for this year or blow it up and rebuild?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. You don’t have to go all-in on either direction, but you should at least have a direction. I don’t know what the Brewers direction is.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
If the Cubs were offered the value in a trade for Baez that matched their own personal value of him at this time last year, do they pull the trigger?

Dave Cameron: If it was a piece that better fit their roster, probably.

Comment From Using the Term Studies Loosely
I defy “guest” to provide a link to an actual scientific study that definitively proves pit bulls are a more violent breed. For one thing, they aren’t a breed. It’s a term used, and often misused, to refer to a group of dogs that incorporates numerous breeds. Second, every one of these “studies” I have seen is based on the number of media reports of dog attacks. An attack by a Golden Retriever doesn’t fit the anti-pit bull narrative, so it’s harder to sensationalize and won’t be reported. Plus, there’s no way to verify the paper’s characterization of the dog as a pit bull. Show me a DNA test. Third, the reason pit bulls have these stories written about them more often is because they’re the dog of choice for people who want an aggressive, protective dog. It is, as you say Dave, about nurture–if drug dealers decided Labs were their dog of choice, Labs would be the most villified dogs. Temperament comes from nurture way more than nature. Finally, the professional organization for America veterinarians is opposed to breed-specific legislation because in their professional opinion it has no scientific basis. So can we please not let Guest use the chat to perpetuate baseless stereotypes that just make it harder for a lot of sweet innocent dogs to find adoptive homes? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think it’s basic selection bias. People have heard that pitbulls are mean, so people who want guard dogs buy pitbulls, and then raise them as guard dogs, so more pitbulls are treated in a way that is more likely to lead to an attack.

Comment From Guest
If the Phils eat 50mm of Howards contract who trades for him?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely no one.

Comment From Curtis
Baez seems like a popular bust pick….can you think of a popular bust pick from the past that exceeded expectations?

Dave Cameron: Alfonso Soriano.

Dave Cameron: For basically the same reasons.

Comment From Sir Nerdlington
How would you rank the MLBPA’s priorities going into the next CBA? In other words, what’s the one thing they’ll likely sell everything to change? What will they give on in order to get it? 1. service time issues 2. amateur signing system 3. raising minimum salary 4. drug testing/policy 5. salary as % of revenue 6. other?

Dave Cameron: They’ll want a bigger share of revenues. That’s going to be the big sticking point. Players aren’t going to want to settle for 40% of the pie anymore.

Dave Cameron: The question is how they get it. Do they go after hire minimums (spread the wealth) or a significantly higher luxury tax threshold (more money for high-end FAs), or some other mechanic that isn’t currently in place?

Comment From Auditor
Did you do Taxes or Audit?

Dave Cameron: I was a cost accountant. So, more cost analysis than typical debit/credit accounting.

Comment From Mike P.
Worse FO right now – Phillies or D’Backs?

Dave Cameron: Probably the D’Backs, simply because they just chose this group. At least the Phillies can hope that ownership realizes Amaro is out of his depth and transitions to a 21st century front office. Arizona just went backwards on purpose.

Dave Cameron: And they went backwards from Kevin Towers, which isn’t easy.

Comment From Guest
What’s the best way to think about/project Bryce Harper? He’s obviously incredibly talented and still very very young, but we also have three years of pretty good-not awesome performance (including a most recent year with rough K and BB trends and middling wRC+ despite inflated BABIP), and at a certain point the shine of youth has to give way to major league experience.

Dave Cameron: He has the 20th best wRC+ through age-21 in baseball history. At this point in his career, he’s outhit Miguel Cabrera. Be patient.

Comment From David
Have other GMs around the league looked at the Royals’ surprise success last year and shifted strategy at all?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t really seem like it. This winter, everyone went after RH power, which the Royals have basically zero of.

Comment From Thank You Dave…
For publishing that pit bull comment. No need to post this, just wanted to say that as someone who adopted a “pit bull mix” from a shelter, she is the sweetest, gentlest, goofiest dog, and doesn’t even look like a pit bull (she has a slender build and is pretty small), but still, she gets funny looks all the time from people who ask if she’s a pitbull or assume she is and then cross the street, pick up their kids, leash their dog, etc. It’s disheartening.

Dave Cameron: Our neighbors a few houses down have a pit bull mix that Liberty goes and plays with almost everyday. Liberty is the most submissive dog in history, a super sweet lab mix, and their pit mix rolls over and lets Liberty do whatever she wants to her. It’s hilarious.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out this week.