Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/18/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday. Let’s see if we can do better than Steve Delabar did last night.

Q-Ball: Hi Dave! When are you going to unleash the new prospect writer on a chat?

Dave Cameron: Eric Longenhagen will be chatting here on Friday this week, giving you all a chance to pepper him with questions and get to know him a bit better. We’ll find a permanent spot in the chat schedule for him in the not-too-distant future, and he’ll do weekly chats (and podcasts) in addition to his writing on the site.

Zonk: The Pirates are in contention, and rolling Jon Niese and Jeff Locke out there. Meanwhile, Glasnow and Taillon continue to mow down AAA batters. Why are the Pirates waiting to bring them up? Are they waiting on the Super-TWo deadline?

Dave Cameron: Taillon hasn’t pitched much the last few years, and Glasnow still has significant command issues. Keep in mind the lesson of Jose Berrios; the jump to the big leagues isn’t always as easy as it appears, and it does more harm than good to put a kid on the yo-yo between the big leagues and the minors.

Dave Cameron: They’ll be up this summer, but rushing it isn’t a great idea.

Ben: Jackie Bradley’s obviously had an insanely hot start at the plate, but his defense has been bad, both by DRS and the eye test. A lot of mental mistakes and miscues. Do you think he put a lot more focus on his offensive game this offseason or something? What’s going on, you think? He hasn’t ever looked like this.

Dave Cameron: It’s not that unusual for little guys to bulk up a bit in an effort to add more power, seeing their offense spike and defense slip at the same time. Brett Gardner and Gerardo Parra are recent examples of defensive wizards who shifted their value; won’t shock me if Bradley follows suit.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What’s up with Jason Heyward’s 79 wRC+? The power seems to have just evaporated, despite an LD% well above career average. Is it the IFFB%? Having 1/5 of your fly balls be auto-out popups intuitively seems pretty high – is hitting too many pop flies his issue? Or is it this all just small sample size rearing its ugly head?

Dave Cameron: He’s not pulling the ball in the air at all, and he’s not strong enough to consistently hit the ball out to left or center field. He’s going to have to start turning on some balls.

Sirras: What would Clayton Kershaw have to do to put himself in the conversation for best pitcher of all time? Feels like he’s been pitching in that territory though no single season has off-the-charts WAR.

Dave Cameron: He’d have to sustain his 2016 for another five years, and then age well. As awesome as Kershaw was, he’s at ~50 WAR; Randy Johnson got to 110, and he’s not even in the mix for best of all time argument.

Q-Ball: I don’t think the Cubs are perfect. I think they need a power lefty for the pen. I think they should be in on Chapman if he goes on the market. What say you?

Dave Cameron: Andrew Miller makes more sense, since Chapman will want to close.

Erik: Does it seem right to you that Odor’s suspension is so much shorter than the domestic violence suspensions? Is violence off the field that much worse than violence on it? Or is there a totally different logic which goes into a suspension for an on-field vs. off-field incident, so any comparison is worthless?

Dave Cameron: There is a huge difference between throwing in a punch in an altercation with another professional athlete versus hitting a woman. I agree that MLB’s penalty system for various events is weird, but we shouldn’t conflate what Odor did with someone who commits domestic violence.

Guest: Any hope for Prince or is he completely cooked? The underlying stats aren’t great but they aren’t this bad

Dave Cameron: He’s probably about as good as Mitch Moreland at this point. He’s not worthless, but he should be platooned at the minimum, and shouldn’t be viewed as a big bat any longer. He’s a slightly above average hitter that does nothing else of value.

LeTigre: If Jurickson Profar comes up during Odor’s suspension, what is the likelihood he sticks and takes over for Elvis Andrus at SS?

Dave Cameron: Zero.

AJ Preller: Say I eat $3-5M annually on the Matt Kemp contract, would that bring back a legit package? Or would we be prudent to sell for anything we can get, covering as little cash as possible? Thanks

Dave Cameron: Matt Kemp has a .250 OBP and can’t play the field. He’s not quite worthless, but he’s close to it.

AJ Preller: Would it be prudent to explore a Pomeranz trade?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely. The Padres already missed their chance to cash in on Tyson Ross at peak value, so they should have learned the lesson of hanging onto a depreciating asset too long.

Zonk: Jake Arrieta is a FA after 2017, heading into his age 32 season. He’s clearly gunning for a mega contract. Do you foresee a Grienke-like contract? How risky do you think it would be?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he made it pretty clear that he wants north of Strasburg money, which he’s worth if he stays healthy and keeps dominating. I could see him getting 7/$200M or something, even at his age, if he keeps showing he’s this good.

Jacob: How do you handle situations like the one from the podcast on Monday, where your neighbor said the Cubs lost in the NLCS because they were just content to be there? Do you politely try to point out that it is nonsense or do you just nod and keep quiet on the subject?

Dave Cameron: I generally just say something like “well, the Mets pitching staff can make anyone look bad” or something, without actually trying to turn it into an argument. In my experience, most people in that situation aren’t looking to be convinced.

Turbo: Four consecutive bases loaded walks for the Reds last night. Woof. Anything the manager can do differently, or is he doing the best he can with a bad bullpen?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s just a talent issue. The Reds relievers stink.

David: The signing of Stras frees up rizzo to trade one of his MILB arms not named Giolito. What should Rizzo target with some one like AJ Cole? I’m thinking a good bullpen Arm with 2+ yrs of left of service – Joe Smith?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think A.J. Cole has much value anymore; he’s been exposed as a fringe guy.

Dave Cameron: The easiest way to improve the Nationals bullpen would be to just use Shawn Kelley in high leverage situations.

Will Graham: So is Clayton Kershaw the likely NL MVP at this point

Dave Cameron: He’d have my vote.

guest: Way back when, you were just about the only one who didn’t think Jesus Montero was going to be a star. What did you see (or not) there? Is that a type of player you just don’t believe in? What’s the “type?”

Dave Cameron: I’m almost always going to be lower than the consensus on bat-only guys, because I think projecting future offensive performance of minor leaguers is the single hardest thing to do in baseball. I just don’t think we can ever be as certain about a player’s hitting abilities as people were saying they were about Montero’s bat.

Erik: The Phillies’ playoff odds have soared to 0.3%. Fivethirtyeight’s model has them up to 11%. Seems like FanGraphs’ odds don’t really move much based on early season results. Do cases like the current Phillies suggest that FanGraphs

Dave Cameron: I would happily wager against anyone who actually believes the Phillies have an 11% shot of making the postseason.

STiVo: How closely correlated are OPS+ and wRC+?

Dave Cameron: Very closely, probably like .97 or something. It mostly makes a difference for guys who are extremely low OBP/high SLG hitters. A guy like Khris Davis will be overrated by OPS.

Steve: Is the Shawn Tolleson experiment finally over?

Dave Cameron: I would have to imagine he won’t get the next save chance in Texas. Whether he gets another one this year probably depends on how Sam Dyson does.

Zonk: Looking ahead to the next 5 years, what team do you feel, based on present and farm system talent, has the least hope?

Dave Cameron: The Padres, probably. Though if the Tigers don’t turn things around this year, they could end up needing to admit the window is closed.

Jack: Do the Cubs end up trading for another starter, just because? Do they actually need to, in your opinion?

Dave Cameron: Their rotation is really good. The idea that they need another starter is based on the continual underrating of Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel.

Bryan: Will Justin Upton get back on track?

Dave Cameron: Pretty sure he’s not going to run an .040 ISO all year, but the contact issues make him worthless when he’s not hitting for power.

Guesto: When do heads begin to roll in Cincinnati? That bullpen is pitiful and there should be consequences.

Dave Cameron: There should be consequences that a rebuilding team has a bad bullpen?

Justin: At this point Trayce Thompson should be playing as much as possible until he proves otherwise, right?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Jeff: After dropping the last four, and no signs of the bat, if and when the Jays start selling, what players stay? Understand Bautista and EE have 10/5, but would they waive a trade or do the Jays want the draft pick? Do you think it will be a full rebuild or just a retool? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: The Jays aren’t going to be sellers.

Josh: Steve Pearce: improved hitter or just a hot streak?

Dave Cameron: He’s not this good, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be the everyday 1B in Tampa Bay.

Joe: How good does Lincecum need to be for the Angels to seriously contend?

Dave Cameron: Kershawian.

Erik: Not sure exactly how to read the stat, but the top two pitchers in career Clutch are the mighty Steve Trachsel and Aaron Harang. Nolan Ryan is the third worst. What does that mean?

Dave Cameron: That talent level and ability to strand runners aren’t that correlated.

mtsw: Is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer in your view?

Dave Cameron: I would vote for him, but I’m a bigger hall guy than a lot of people.

Ritt Momney: Let’s say the Phillies are still in this thing in 2 months time. Let’s also put aside what you and I think they should do. How “in it” does Klentak think he needs to be to make a move in favor of a 2016 wildcard birth?

Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine they’re going to sacrifice any serious parts of their future to try and keep this mirage up. I could see them making small moves that don’t really cost anything besides taking on payroll, but they know they can’t actually compete with the big boys in the NL, and they won’t waste capital.

A Reitz: Wait…so what if Chapman wants to close. He’s argueably the best closer in baseball. Hector Rondon isn’t even a Top 8 closer imo.

Dave Cameron: The whole point of adding a left-hander is because the Cubs need a guy who can help them get great LHBs out in high leverage situations. Having Rondon available in the 7th/8th doesn’t help you with that.

Big Joe Montferrant: There is more to judging a pitcher than simply WAR though Dave. With that argument Cy Young is the best pitcher of all-time followed by Kid Nichols

Dave Cameron: Of course there is. But it’s also a good enough bucketing metric that we can say that a guy with 50 WAR isn’t in the conversation for best-of-all-time yet, and won’t be for a long time.

Big Joe Montferrant: I hate that Odor has been suspended simply for being (what seems like) a good fighter.. You can see that Bautista was loading up as well in the replay, but Odor was simply quicker and more compact. Maybe 2-3 games, but 8 is too much

Dave Cameron: Let me guess; you’re a Rangers fan?

Eric: True or false: Kershaw is pitching as well as peak Pedro right now?

Pedro in 1999: 33.1% K-BB%, 1.39 FIP
Kershaw in 2016: 33.2% K-BB%, 1.37 FIP

Dave Cameron: A 1.39 FIP in ’99 > a 1.37 FIP in 2016.

Troy: Off the top of your head, can you remember any of cistulli’s fringe prospect guys that actually had a decent major league career?

Dave Cameron: A bunch of them; he’s actually identified a ton of good young players. Corey Kluber was the most famous guy, probably, but he was in on Garrett Richards early, Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson…

Von Schloss: Does Sonny Gray’s performance decrease the likelihood the A’s deal him this season?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this slump couldn’t have been timed much worse.

Harangutan: Which team has this years worst All-Star?

Dave Cameron: It has to be the Braves, right? At this point, they’re either sending Freddie Freeman (1B with a 121 wRC+) or, I don’t know, Arodys Vizcaino I guess?

HappyFunBall: Stras and Scherzer both signed for 3+ years even if Stras opts out. Gio for 2. Roark and Ross aren’t even to arbitration yet. Wither Giolito?

Dave Cameron: Pitchers get hurt. You never just need five.

CamdenWarehouse: What makes projecting a minor league hitter harder than a pitcher?

Dave Cameron: The skills that make a good hitter are far more subtle than the ones that make a good pitcher, and require far larger samples before we can be confident that we’re picking up on signal and not noise. A guy throws 97 a few times, you know how hard he throws. A guy hits a few screaming line drives? You have no idea if that means anything.

Chicago Mark: You get the last word so let’s discuss more. Isn’t there at least a small chance the Cubbies were just happy to be there last year? Maybe they thought at least a little they were the Cinderella Story. I know Maddon does a great job at keeping his players grounded and positive. But they are young. And they did accomplish something that is rare for a north side team. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I think trying to judge the thoughts, feelings, and motives of other people is impossible, and I think it’s foolish to try.

Cave: Considering what teams gave up for Kimbrel & Giles, should Braves be looking to trade Vizcaino?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely. Vizcaino won’t bring back that kind of package (TJ surgery + PED suspension in his history), but this is the time to move him.

mtsw: What’s the worst MVP race in your lifetime? 2006 AL MVP is pretty dire in retrospect.

Dave Cameron: What year did Justin Morneau win the MVP? That was bad. Juan Gonzalez the year that A-Rod and Griffey had 10 win seasons was also terrible.,

Snarfle: Let’s say the Mets and Nats are still very close at the deadline. What do the Mets add? Nifty bullpen piece? Shortstop? Wait, they already have an okay shortstop. Ummm, a guy who can steal time from Asdrubel and also spell Wright?

Dave Cameron: Their bullpen is already really good. Reed/Robles/Bastardo is a sneaky great trio in front of Familia.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, I could see them picking up another IF in case they don’t want to run Wright out there everyday in October.

J!mbo: Blackmon was one of Cistulli’s guys.

Dave Cameron: Oh yeah, I forgot his love affair with Charlie Blackmon.

Robbie: Found some for the Fringe Prospect question: Salazar, Semien, Betts, Piscotty, Franco from 2013

Dave Cameron: How did I forget Mookie?

Well-Beered Englishman: Danny Salazar was a Cistulli guy.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, like I said, he’s actually done really well at identifying some guys.

Q-Ball: Jay Bruce is actually having a good year. The Reds FINALLY trade him this summer….right?

Dave Cameron: Jay Bruce has -0.2 WAR so far.

Oliver: Caminero went from possible solid back end pen arm to throwing gasoline on a raging fire. What the heck happened there?

Dave Cameron: Relievers are fickle.

Bubba: So… is Carson a secret prospect genius?

Dave Cameron: Well, no. Some of it is just quantity; he touts a lot of guys, so some of them are bound to work out. But I think there’s also just a basic reality that guys who perform well, even without obvious tools, probably are doing something right, and some of those guys are going to just be better than scouts expected. He’s fishing in a stocked pond, basically.

Dave Cameron: And that’s kind of the whole point of the exercise; there’s no reason to ignore these kinds of prospects, but outside of his coverage, they are largely ignored.

Aaron: Dave, can you please explain to me how Elvis Andrus can be -1.5 BsR, -2.6 Off, -2.1 Def, and still be a 0.0 WAR player? Is there something I’m not understanding about how all these are added up?

Dave Cameron: The first three are baselined against average, which is not the same thing as replacement level.

Dave Cameron: Okay, have to do some writing. Thanks for chatting everyone.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week, and as I mentioned earlier, come back on Friday for Eric Longenhagen’s first prospects chat.