Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/2/14

11:41
Dave Cameron: Due to a scheduling conflict, Dan Szymborski and I have changed chat days this week, so I’m filling in today and Dan will take my spot on Wednesday. The queue is open, and we’ll get started in 15 or 20 minutes.

12:00
Comment From pop
Do you have any thoughts on Juan Francisco moving forward? Think he will be effective?

12:01
Dave Cameron: He’s a decent enough part-time guy, but I wouldn’t want him as a regular in the postseason.

12:01
Comment From Brad
What’s up with Joe Mauer this year at the plate?

12:01
Dave Cameron: High contact/moderate power only works if you’re actually making high levels of contact. Mauer’s basically turned into a guy who strikes out at a league average rate, and given his limited power, that’s a big problem.

12:01
Comment From Scotty
Any chance Scotty Kazmir keeps this up? Obviously injuries are a risk with this guy…

12:02
Dave Cameron: No reason to think he won’t. Kazmir with velocity has always been good.

12:02
Comment From jocephus
are the giants sneaky good?

12:02
Dave Cameron: They have the best record in baseball. Not sure that’s very sneaky.

12:02
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Is Tanaka now the favorite for the AL Cy Young?… His 162 game projection is 25-3, 2.06 ERA, 243 innings, 278 Ks, 37 Walks, 0.95 WHIP

12:03
Dave Cameron: That’s not a projection, that’s an extrapolation. It might sound like semantics, but there’s a huge difference between them.

12:04
Dave Cameron: In terms of Tanaka and the Cy Young, yeah, he’s one of the early frontrunners. Lots of others still in the mix though, so no any one pitcher should be considered a favorite over the field.

12:04
Comment From Collin McWHO????
Any thoughts on Collin McHugh? Candidate for regression or can he kept it up?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Jeff just wrote about this on Thursday.http://www.fangrap…

12:05
Dave Cameron: Whoops. Try that again. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

12:05
Comment From Bryan
When looking for pitchers who are likely to improve going forward, is a quick measure of a LOW FIP/xFIP compared to HIGH ERA a dependable method of identification?

12:06
Dave Cameron: Yeah, in general, the population of pitchers whose ERAs are significantly higher than their FIP/xFIPs will improve as a whole. Keep in mind, though, that single-season FIP/xFIP are also prone to significant regression, so don’t just look at a bad pitcher who posted a good xFIP for two or three starts and assume that’s his new talent level.

12:06
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Do you think K/Hit allowed should be a utilised stats for pitchers? Especially RPs?

12:06
Dave Cameron: I don’t see one thing that dividing strikeouts by hits allowed tells us that other stats don’t already tell us more clearly.

12:07
Comment From Walking with dArnaudsaurs
Based on your Expected Run Differential, the A’s are, by a mile, the best team in baseball. Is there any reason to suspect they may regress a bit? Or are they slated to pretty much dominate the regular season?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Well, I’d say it’s more accurate to say that the A’s have played like the best team in baseball. First two months performance isn’t the best way to determine who is the best or worst team going forward. I think the A’s are very good, but they’re not invincible.

12:08
Comment From Jake
The Nationals are starting to look like a pretty formiddable team even with all the injuries. Thoughts on Zimmerman’s move to LF?

12:09
Dave Cameron: Makes sense, given his throwing problems. Will be interesting to see if he shows enough out there to make that his long term position, instead of first base.

12:09
Comment From Jake
I know the Rockies are deflating but all those OF bats, they have to be buyers at the deadline right?

12:10
Dave Cameron: The Rockies are legitimate contenders for a wild card spot, but buying to try and win your way into a one-game playoff should be measured. Don’t give up the farm to slightly improve your odds of playing a 50-50 game.

12:11
Comment From Anon21
Why is it that outs on the basepaths are less problematic (and therefore aggressive baserunning is more advisable) in low run environments? Intuitively, I would think that as run-scoring decreases, each out becomes *more* precious, because simply reaching base becomes a rarer event.

12:11
Dave Cameron: In low-run scoring environments, a baserunner is less likely to be knocked in by the hitters following him. It’s the same reason you’re more interested in stealing a base with the 7/8/9 hitters coming up rather than the 3/4/5 guys.

12:12
Comment From Jake
Tampa Bay has fewer wins than the Astros. How come they don’t receive the vitriol that the Astros have had to endure?

12:12
Dave Cameron: Because people don’t get mad at you for trying to win.

12:12
Dave Cameron: Even if you fail.

12:13
Comment From Barney
What would you change about the amateur draft?

12:13
Dave Cameron: I’d get rid of it.

12:13
Comment From JDagg
Kendrys in a Yankees uniform at weeks end?

12:13
Dave Cameron: I doubt it.

12:14
Comment From Guest
I realize why the error is a silly, arbitrary stat. But there’s obviously value in noting when a fielder’s play on a ball results in extra bases. Do advanced defensive stats factor in that sort of thing at all?

12:14
Dave Cameron: Yep, UZR and DRS both penalize a fielder for making plays that award extra bases to runners.

12:14
Comment From Jimbo
How many 80 pitches can you think of in the league right now? Does any pitcher have 2?

12:15
Dave Cameron: Aroldis Chapman’s fastball. Tanaka’s splitter. Felix’s change-up. Kershaw’s breaking ball.

12:15
Dave Cameron: And no, I don’t think anyone has two.

12:15
Comment From Mariners pitching coach
Should I be holding my breath for James Paxton’s return? Why or why not?

12:15
Dave Cameron: I’d advise against it unless you want to die from oxygen deprivation.

12:16
Comment From Xander Bogaerts
If you were remaking the award, would you have guys like Tanaka and Abreu eligible for RoY? Or would I be the AL favorite this year?

12:16
Dave Cameron: I’d probably just rename it “Best Debut” or something to that effect.

12:17
Comment From Steve
Would baseball be a better game if every player looked like Derek Norris or Brett Gardner?

12:17
Dave Cameron: We’re not selling jeans here.

12:17
Comment From Guest
Which team has been the biggest surprise to you so far, in terms of over-achieving your expectations?

12:18
Dave Cameron: I don’t know that any team has really changed my perception for the positive that much. The A’s are better than I thought, but I didn’t think they were bad. Same with the Blue Jays.

12:19
Comment From Freddy
Possible weird OBP calculation issue for Steamer or Fangraphs: When I use the OBP formula to calculate OBP from Steamer ROS projections and compare it to Steamer ROS OBP as projected, they are slightly different. I just found this out and only had time to do it for Trout but…..

12:19
Dave Cameron: I think Steamer doesn’t project sac flies, so you’re going to be missing a variable.

12:19
Comment From Yo-Yo
What should be done with Shelby Miller? If it’s the minors, do you stretch out Martinez?

12:20
Dave Cameron: If the problem is physical, sending him to the minors probably won’t help. If the problem is mental, sending him to the minors probably won’t help. The bullpen might be the best option once Joe Kelly comes back.

12:20
Comment From Songs: Ohia
Are we seeing the emergence of Chris Sale as one of baseball’s best pitchers? Where would you put him? Top 5? Top 10?

12:21
Dave Cameron: I think he’s been one of the top 5 in baseball for a while now. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

12:21
Comment From Jake
Three days ago, ZiPS estimated Solarte’s ROS wRC+ at 92. Then Solarte went 5-8 with a HR, and has an estimated 95 ROS wRC+. That’s a 3 point swing, on two days of performance. For players with recent performance that dramatically differs from previous play, is volatility in projections just something you have to live with?

12:22
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t describe a three point swing in wRC+ as volatility. A 92 and a 95 wRC+ are basically the same thing.

12:23
Comment From Russ Adams
How many Cy votes do you think Mark Buehrle gets, and how many does he deserve, if he keeps up this pace(luck).

12:24
Dave Cameron: He’d get a lot, but let’s remember to not confuse unsustainable results with exogenous factors out of his control. It’s one thing to say that Buehrle won’t keep giving up a 2.4% HR/FB ratio; it’s another thing to say that his HR/FB ratio is luck. The fact that he’s not giving up home runs is one of the main reasons he’s been good, and in handing out awards, that should count.

12:24
Comment From Nate
Despite all the evidence to the contrary, I’m still skeptical of Dallas Keuchel…even as an Astros fan. Should I be, or is he really going to keep this up?

12:25
Dave Cameron: One can think he won’t keep pitching this well without being a skeptic. The groundballs-and-strikeouts combination is a very good one, and even if he settles in as more of a good starter than a great one, nothing wrong with that.

12:25
Comment From Finding Forrester
How likely do you see a Zobrist trade? His option is relatively cheap for his production but he’s also declining. Could he garner much return?

12:25
Dave Cameron: I think he’s the kind of guy the Rays would have trouble replacing, so their desire to move him shouldn’t be particularly high.

12:25
Comment From James Finch
No salaries to be paid, ignoring positional need, if you’re a GM would you rather have Tulowitzki or Trout for the remainder of this season only?

12:25
Dave Cameron: Nope.

12:26
Comment From Guest
Should we expect Kluber to underperform his peripherals due to his below average fastball?

12:26
Dave Cameron: No, you should expect him to underperform his peripherals due to the Indians atrocious defense.

12:27
Comment From pr
you think the Rays will be out of it and trade Price?

12:27
Dave Cameron: I think the Rays are already out of it.

12:27
Comment From Matt
Is there any significant benefit for a struggling team to start trading Major League pieces now instead of waiting until closer to the deadline?

12:28
Dave Cameron: Absolutely; you’re dumping risk that the player will get injured between now and July 31st. Especially with a pitcher, I’d be pushing to sell in June rather than July.

12:28
Comment From Jason
You really nailed your Royals prediction before the season. Do they have a lack of talent or does the org do a poor job developing the talent? Hosmer, Moose, etc… should really be better.

12:28
Dave Cameron: I don’t think this is an either/or situation. Their prospects were overrated and they aren’t good at developing them.

12:29
Comment From Ellis
Out of Cueto-Latos-Leake, who do you think stays and who goes?

12:29
Dave Cameron: I think Cueto and Latos are probably both too expensive. I could see both getting traded and Leake staying.

12:29
Comment From Brian
Obviously, they should go for the best talent available, but what could the Royals realistically get in return for a partial season of James Shields?

12:30
Dave Cameron: Depends on who else gets put on the market. If Samardzija and Price are both out there, Shields will be third fiddle until they are moved.

12:30
Comment From wow
With those numbers on Tanaka, he could be gunning for an AL MVP….!

12:30
Dave Cameron: Nope, not with the current crop of voters.

12:31
Comment From big boy
Billy Butler starting to turn the corner?

12:31
Dave Cameron: Sure, if the corner took him from Disaster Blvd to Atrocious St.

12:32
Comment From A. Lane
May be a dumb question, but does plate appearances for hitters equal total batters faced for pitchers?

12:32
Dave Cameron: Correct.

12:32
Comment From Matt
Now that Bogaerts is hitting like people thought he might, does the team wish they hadn’t signed Drew when his OPS was over 100 points lower?

12:32
Dave Cameron: They signed Drew to replace Middlebrooks, not Bogaerts.

12:32
Comment From Joel
Jeff doesn’t seem to think the M’s would get much back in a Chris Young deal. If he stays solid, would they be better off keeping him and signing him for a 2 year deal or something like that?

12:33
Dave Cameron: You don’t give a guy with his injury history a multi-year deal.

12:33
Dave Cameron: And Jeff is right; he’ll have very little trade value.

12:33
Comment From Mr Salty
It seems the data we use on FG is great at confirming performance vs baseline, but it’s not very good at predicting change in baseline. When will we get good at that?

12:34
Dave Cameron: When we have data that measures things at a more granular level.

12:34
Comment From Curious
Give us the Dave Cameron scouting report back in your playing days. Each tool on the 20-80 scale

12:35
Dave Cameron: Relative to my high school league? 50 hit, 30 power, 30 speed, 60 arm, 60 field.

12:36
Dave Cameron: I was a good defensive C/3B who took a bunch of walks. So, I don’t know, A.J. Ellis or something like that?

12:37
Comment From Andrew
Assuming he reverts to his previously established baseline performance ROS, what happens to Nelson Cruz this offseason?

12:37
Dave Cameron: Gets a qualifying offer, takes it this time.

12:37
Comment From Mr Salty
Basically my 7 year old daughter can spot regression these days, what else does that stats side of baseball have to stay ahead of the scouts?

12:38
Dave Cameron: Since when are stats and scouts in a race?

12:38
Comment From Garth Vader
What’s the virtue of signing bonuses for mlb players? I’m under the influence that they are built into the contract and cost towards the teams threshold of luxury tax so I don’t see the team benefit. Is it solely just upfront cash for the player?

12:39
Dave Cameron: Signing bonuses are averaged over the length of the deal, so if you give a guy a $10 million signing bonus on a five year deal, it only counts $2 million per year against the luxury tax. And despite the term, they’re often not paid out all at once, and usually not at the time of signing.

12:39
Comment From shady
So i know Nelson Cruz can’t keep THIS up, but has anything sustainable changed that should make us think he’s better than he was in Texas?

12:39
Dave Cameron: Nope.

12:40
Comment From Randy
Do you think the A’s have a better overall team than the Giants?

12:40
Dave Cameron: Yes.

12:40
Comment From Daniel
Can you briefly explain why so many closers are righties? I’m sure its been covered elsewhere but everything I’m reading about why seems unconvincing…

12:41
Dave Cameron: Managers prefer to keep their elite LHPs available for matchup duty, because the left-on-left platoon split is the largest in baseball. Forcing a great LHP to face a bunch of RHPs in the 9th inning is a waste of his skills.

12:41
Comment From Guest
Would RA/G – FIP tell you anything about team defense?

12:42
Dave Cameron: Nothing that just looking at team BABIP wouldn’t.

12:43
Comment From Ellis
Are the Reds sellers at the deadline? And, if so, who gets shipped out of the Queen City?

12:43
Dave Cameron: I think they should be, not sure they will be. Putting Cueto on the blocks would make sense, but with Shark, Price, and Shields already potentially crowding things up, would guess they wait until the off-season.

12:43
Comment From Fresh
At the end of the day, what’s the primary purpose of an 0-2 pitch out of the zone?

12:44
Dave Cameron: To get strikeouts in low-contact areas. A well located 0-2 breaking ball out of the zone, or a high fastball up out of the zone, is one of the best ways to get strikeouts.

12:45
Comment From angelo
what would you do instead of the amateur draft?

12:46
Dave Cameron: Allocate amateur signing pools to organizations based on market size.

12:47
Comment From First Time Poster
Do players like Encarnacion age better than most considering his fantastic BB/K ratio? He is a dead pull hitter and relies heavily on bat speed however… so I am conflicted with how these kinds of hitters age.

12:47
Dave Cameron: I haven’t seen it proven, but I think extreme pull guys age worse than guys who use the whole field.

12:48
Comment From Jake
Two very different guys, Corey Kluber and Aaron Harang, are your league leaders in FIP. Are these guys for real?

12:48
Dave Cameron: Kluber yes, Harang no.

12:49
Comment From Tom
Is it accurate to describe the Giants’ success in high-leverage situations as “luck,” or something else? Or is that a philosophical question rather than a baseball one?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Hitting with RISP, above and beyond the normal adjustment upwards from your baseline hitting talent, is just randomness.

12:50
Comment From J6takish
What does dayton moore have to do to get fired?

12:50
Dave Cameron: If this doesn’t do it, I have no idea.

12:50
Comment From Benji
Teheran better then Strasburg?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Not even close.

12:51
Comment From Bobblehead Ann Boleyn
Following the first game of the year, I can look up a players WAR based on 1 game alone. No other time can I do this, or am I missing something? I can get wRC+, etc…, but not WAR. Arbitrary and small sample size be d@#ned, I still want to know.

12:51
Dave Cameron: We don’t have game-by-game fielding data, so we can’t give you game-by-game WAR. Sorry.

12:52
Comment From Dan
Is there a conversion from Wpa we24 or any other win probability stat to wins? I’m just curious to look at how valuable situational performance has been for some players

12:52
Dave Cameron: Depending on what you mean by situational performance, look at WPA/LI.

12:52
Comment From Harry
Julio Teheran is 3rd in the NL in ERA but FIP that is double his ERA. Any chances he continues to outperform his FIP for this season?

12:52
Dave Cameron: Sure, by some margin far less than what he is now.

12:53
Comment From Jamaal
Why won’t you answer the Tulo/Trout question I thought it was a good one.

12:53
Dave Cameron: I did answer it. Trout is better.

12:54
Comment From Hella
Assuming the A’s know this is their window of opportunity, do you see Beane pulling off any trades or rentals this year for a playoff run?

12:54
Dave Cameron: Yeah, they could use a 1B upgrade, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t try to go get one.

12:55
Comment From T-bird
Top 3 picks expected to be pitchers (Aiken, Kolek, Rodon). Is this wise, or are teams undervaluing injury risk?

12:56
Dave Cameron: I think your information is a little old. Alex Jackson is probably going #2, and there’s apparently a chance that Houston goes with a position player at #1 as well.

12:56
Comment From the Average Sports Fan
If a team is making a short term deal. How much extra is it worth paying to have the player June 2nd over July 31st?

12:56
Dave Cameron: Depends on how good the player is, but if you’re buying an above average player, that’s probably worth a win.

12:57
Comment From Randy
Can Morse hit well enough the rest of ’14 to make up for his awful defense/baserunning?

12:57
Dave Cameron: When he plays 1B, yes. In LF, no.

12:58
Comment From Bill
Red Sox really 5th best rosW% ? (per FG Playoff odds)

12:58
Dave Cameron: They won the World Series last year. They don’t suck.

12:58
Comment From NotJoshDonaldson
It hasn’t even really been a year and a half, but given his performance since the start of 2012, do we need to re-think Josh Donaldson’s ceiling as that of a perennial All-Star, who one day gets some Hall of Fame votes?

12:59
Dave Cameron: Started way too late to get into the HOF.

1:00
Comment From Ed
Why do we use a 20-80 scale? Why not just 0-60? Or 0-100 for that matter?

1:00
Dave Cameron: Using a 60 point scale allows each 10 points to be one standard deviation from the norm.

1:00
Dave Cameron: So a 60 is one standard deviation better than average.

1:01
Comment From Flash
What do you think of Dee Gordon? Decent ballplayer now?

1:01
Dave Cameron: I guess you haven’t noticed he stopped hitting about 6 weeks ago?

1:02
Comment From AF
You guys seem quick to jump on the bandwagon of fast starters when their fast starts are backed up by advanced stats (eg Keuchel, Dozier, even when their early performance is inconsistent with their track record and pedigree and therefore their projections. Why is there not more concern about small sample sizes? Doesn’t the law of large numbers apply to advanced stats as well as conventional ones?

1:03
Dave Cameron: Metrics with fewer variables become a more fair gauge of a player’s ability at smaller samples than metrics with many variables. You only need a handful of pitches to know how hard a guy throws, or how often a guy swings. If you’re using something like ERA, you need a huge number.

1:04
Comment From Adrian
Based on the previous question concerning left handed closers, does that mean Sean Doolittle is a temp closer for the As?

1:04
Dave Cameron: It doesn’t apply to every single LHP. It’s just the reason why most LHPs don’t get a shot at closing.

1:04
Comment From John
For the amatuer draft pool you mean standings right? Not market size? Because there is no way a team like the Rays should get a bigger pool that the Astros simply because they have a smaller market.

1:05
Dave Cameron: I have little interest in rewarding teams for being bad. The idea of giving high draft picks to teams who suck on purpose, or through incompetence, has no real benefit.

1:06
Comment From Bob from Accounting
Re: 0-2 pitch – the pitcher’s K advantage is negated if hitters know 95% of these pitches will be out of the zone and don’t swing. So why not attack?

1:06
Dave Cameron: Because hitters don’t take 95% of 0-2 pitches.

1:07
Comment From Brad
Sorry I am just starting to get interested in sabremetrics and hear you say granular a lot. What does that mean? Thanks and how is Liberty?

1:08
Dave Cameron: Granular comes from “grain”, and so think of it as measuring each individual piece of grain rather than the entire weight of the container. More granular = drilling down further to individual components.

1:09
Comment From shady
the A’s should go for an upgrade over Moss? Moss is #3 in WAR so far this year…

1:09
Dave Cameron: Moss plays OF about 50% of the time, no?

1:10
Comment From jocephus
Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros will promote Jonathan Singleton on Tuesday.

1:10
Dave Cameron: Interesting. With Taveras coming up over the weekend, wonder if MLB teams have some inside info on the super-two date being earlier than last year.

1:11
Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get lunch and do some work. Thanks for hanging out a few days earlier than usual.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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sportsfan882
9 years ago

What will the Nats do when both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper are back healthy? Rendon has looked very good defensively at 3B but they will have no choice but to move Ryan back there at least for the rest of this season.